Rules of Calculating Probabilities

• Multiplication Rule
• Addition Rule
• Conditional Probability Rule
• Independence Rule
• Bayes’ Theorem
Multiplication Rule:
• If A and B are any two events, the
probability of both of them to occur, their
joint probability, denoted by P(A  B), is
given by:
(i) P(AB) = P(A).P(B) if A and B are not
mutually exclusive.
(ii) P(AB) = 0 if A and B are mutually
exclusive.
Example (1):
• Two students were sitting a given exam. If
the probability of passing the exam was 0.8
for the first student and 0.7 for the second.
1. What is the probability of both of them to
pass the exam?
2. What is the probability of none of them to
pass the exam?
Addition Rule:
• If A and B are any two events, the
probability of at least of them to occur,
denoted by P(AB), is given by:
(i) P(AB) = P(A) + P(B), if A and B are
mutually exclusive.
(ii) P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB), if A
and B are not mutually exclusive.
Example (2):
• Consider the previous example
1. What is the probability of at least one of
them to pass the exam?
2. What is the probability of only one of them
to pass the exam?
Conditional Probability Rule:
• If A and B are any two events with a joint
probability P(AB), their conditional
probabilities are given by:

P( A  B)
(i) P( A / B) 
P( B)

P( A  B)
(ii) P( B / A) 
P( A)
Example (3):
• If A and B are two events with a joint
probability of 0.35, and the probability of A
was 0.5. Find the conditional probability of
B.
Independence Rule:
• If A and B are any two events, they are said
to be independent iff:
(i) P(A/B) = P(A)
(ii) P(B/A) = P(B)
Example (4):
• If A and B are two independent events such
that:
P(AB) = 0.70
P(B) = 0.25
1. Find P(A) if A and be are mutually
exclusive.
2. Find P(A) if A and be are not mutually
exclusive.
Bayes’ Theorem:
• If A1, A2,…, An are mutually exclusive
events defined on a given sample space, and
E is any event such that P(E)  0, then:

P (A i ).P (E / A i )
P (Ai / E ) 
P (E )
n
where : P (E )   P (A i )P (E / A i )
i 1
Example (5):
• At a given factory, a machine for processing
a certain product is operated by two
technicians. The first operates it for 60% of
the time while the second operates it for
40% of the time. The percentage of
defective items produced is 2% for the 1st
and 4% for the 2nd.
1. What is the probability of producing a
defective item by the end of a working day?
2. If a defective item was detected by the end
of a working day, what is the probability
that it was produced by the 2nd technician?