Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Considering the priorities for improvement and the capacity for implementation, the following
actions are recommended to be undertaken in the short term, between 2019 and 2022. These
actions should sit in addition to on-going and committed projects presented in chapter 6.
Public Disclosure Authorized
Table 11-1 lists the recommended actions, and they are also mapped in Figure 11-1. An explanation
for how the costs have been estimated is presented in chapter 14. Each item is described in more
detail in sections 11.1 to 0.
Cost
Area Cost Item Description
(USD M)
Public Disclosure Authorized
corridor
crossings
Freight parking terminal, parking Freight parking terminal Parking ban, electronic 2.0
ban on Mooring Road booking. Land costs additional
Cost
Area Cost Item Description
(USD M)
Specific parking control zones, designated spaces
Parking Policy 0.5
and charges
Total 118.3
The construction of new PT terminals is scheduled for the medium term. In the short-term. the
existing PT terminals should be improved within the physical constraints of the current location.
These improvements include:
• the reconstruction and expansion of the inter-district terminal at Bahaddarhat and the
construction of a new PT terminal at New Market. Inter-district services which currently
terminate at New Chandgaon should be changed to terminate at Bahaddarhat
• Construction of a new PT terminal at New Market, adjacent to the railway station to
provide a terminus for the large number of city-bus services that terminate in the city
center
A number of key junctions in the city are important interchange locations for passengers changing PT
vehicle (Figure 4-16). A number of these key interchange hubs are located where major atrial roads
cross CDA Avenue, for example Muradpur, GEC Circle or Sholashohor 2 No Gate.
Facilities at these locations are minimal for PT passengers and provide little. In the short term the
top 20 most important interchange locations should be upgraded by installing:
• Identification of formal stops where buses must collect passengers from (and nowhere
else)
• Road markings to identify formal stops
• Formal stops should feature raised platforms for more level loading, bus stop shelters,
lighting, signage and wayfinding
• Marked pedestrian crossings should allow safe pedestrian access to all formal stops
Figure 11-2 provides an example of good bus stop design. Figure 11-3 and Figure 11-4 provide
examples of bus stop and signage design. Bus shelters should be provided for protection from sun
and rain – a key factor in improving the PT experience for users, particularly women and other
vulnerable users. To further improve safety and passenger experience, LED lighting should also be
included, ideally with solar panels to enable minimal upkeep and input. The bus shelters themselves
have a typical width of 2m.
Figure 11-2: Example features for bad and good bus stop design
Source: Transport for London, 2017. Accessible bus stop design guidance
• Katgar
• Barik Bldg
• Kaptai Rastar Matha
• WASA Square
• Customs
A total of 49 junctions need to be upgraded in the short term based on the requirements set out in
section 10.4. 21 of these junctions lie along the BRT corridor, therefore their upgrade is required to
enable to facilitate the BRT construction. A further 28 junctions are located off the corridor.
Example junction designs can be found in the pre-feasibility study titled D6b: Pre-Feasibility
Roadway schemes that accompanies this report.
An investment strategy has been developed for new and replacement footpaths in Chittagong in the
short, medium and long-term. In total 140 Km of new and improved footpaths (on both sides of the
road) are required.
In the short-term footpath construction if focused on improvements that support the development
of the BRT, and constructing footpaths along main roads where they do not currently exist:
Chittagong has many narrow streets, especially in the city center. To ensure sufficient road space is
provided for pedestrians’, public transport and the efficient flow of private vehicles, on-street
parking should be heavily curtailed following the policy presented below. Parking facilities should
instead be provided for in purpose-built off-street car park garages which charge parking fees.
On-street parking should be controlled through space allocation, no-parking areas and parking
charges. With the understanding that space for parking is a scarce commodity, it should be priced
appropriately for the level of disturbance and difficulty which it imposes on other road users. Parking
illegally should be fined, and on-street parking, even where designated, will be more expensive than
off-street parking.
• Areas where informal parking presents a challenge should be identified and designated as
a Parking Control Zone (PCZ) by the government and these should be reviewed annually
and/or in-line with departmental budgets. Parking within these zones should then be
formalised through the provision of dedicated demarcated spaces, with charges applied.
• On-street parking should be located a minimum of 100m from a junction
• On-street parking charges for private vehicles to be introduced. Revenues collected from
enforcement of on-street parking are to be used to pay for the management and
enforcement of the system, and to support the function of public transport. The level of
the charge should be reviewed annually and/or in line with official departmental budgets.
• The presence of a PCZ and the charging structure should be clearly identifiable to
motorists
While formalising on-street parking will be necessary to improve traffic flow on certain routes,
removing parking altogether will be necessary on others, particularly for corridors designated to
support BRT or bus priority where the number of lanes available to general traffic might be reduced.
Taking inspiration from parking management in Dhaka, it is proposed that this strategy should be
carried out by a combination of CCC, CMP and BRTA. Subject to further review, CCC might
implement the policy alongside CMP – CCC is to lease the operation of parking spaces to an external
management company, whilst CMP should supervise and enforce that all parking is legal. BRTA’s role
should be one of overarching management for the whole suite of schemes.
Railway crossings should be reconstructed to a significantly higher standard, both for motorised
traffic and pedestrians. Figure 11-5 demonstrates a suggested layout for a signalised full barrier
crossing. Barriers can operate automatically or manually. In the first instance, it may be most
appropriate to assign members of the civil traffic management team to operate the barriers, to
avoid costly and complicated electrification of automatic barriers. Estimated costs presented in
chapter 14 refer to a manually operated barrier, not an automatic one.
Source: http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/2158/level_crossings_guidance.pdf
In terms of the carriageway itself, in order to prevent damage to vehicles using the crossing etc, the
approach and crossing itself should be as level as possible, and surfaced with concrete or tarmac to
ensure longevity.
Mooring Road and M.A. Aziz Road, form part of the ‘spine’ corridor. Where this road passes by Port
the available width is narrow while traffic volumes are high. The transport demand placed upon this
road is high as it serves the high passenger flows towards CEPZ and trucks accessing the Port.
The available road width is further constrained by the high numbers of trucks that park along
Mooring Road while waiting to enter the Port (Figure 11-7). This removes a lane from general traffic.
It is proposed that a ‘satellite’ truck parking terminal be provided away from the port, allowing trucks
to wait ‘off-street’ to remove the need for trucks to park outside the along Mooring Road and M.A.
Aziz Road, for long periods of time. The Port will then manage the movement of vehicles to and from
the port through an electronic booking system, preventing the influx of vehicles entering the port
and bunching of vehicles leaving the port.
The truck parking terminal should allow for an agglomeration of activities dealing with freight
distribution, transportation and supporting services (human resources, maintenance and repair),
speeding up registration process and optimising the flow of goods. A repair workshop is considered
necessary to prevent on-road repairs of vehicles which reduces road capacity on the approach roads
to the port and in Chittagong as a whole.
The port should manage the movement of vehicles to and from the port as far as Faujdarhat,
through the use of an electronic automatic booking system. This would optimise the flow of freight
traffic by registering an approaching truck, instructing the driver to wait at the truck parking terminal
and then call for them to be dispatched to the appropriate port gate during the correct time slot.
This will enable trucks to depart the parking terminal only when called, so they can drive straight into
the port without having to wait on the road side.
It is proposed that this system would be supported by a truck management system, which would
allow for monitoring of time spent within the port by trucks, and thus control congestion inside the
port. Additionally, as considered in the PwC report38 a port community system should be developed,
which would allow stakeholders involved in the delivery of cargo to track the status of cargo arrivals
and deliveries.
In addition to the above measures, two overflow yard sites have been recommended for
development – New Mooring Overflow Container Yard and the Bay Container Terminal, reducing the
need for vehicles to enter and cause congestion within the port. These will assist to reducing overall
freight traffic congestion
Congestion is also caused by trucks entering and egressing from the 5 main Port gates along Mooring
Road and M.A. Aziz Ra. The current design of these gates is insufficient to enable the efficient
movement of trucks into and out of the port area. Right turning trucks can cause significant
congestion. Improvements are required to widen the corner radiuses and where right turns are
necessary to provide signals and a turning lane in the central reservation. There are 5 gates which
need improvement are:
• Port Gate 1
• Port Gate 2
• Port Gate 3
• Port Gate 4
• Port Gate 5 (Salt Gola)
The short-term measures for institutional development and bus industry include:
• Capacity development for the primary implementing authorities; CDA, CCC and CMP in
addition to BRTA and establishment of the Public Transport Authority.
• Equipment and training for CMP to enhance traffic management capabilities
• Safe driving campaign
• Support for bus industry reform
Section 10.2 advocates the development of CDA Avenue as a BRT corridor recognising the large
number of public transport users within the corridor and the large number of services that access the
corridor. A newly formed Public Transport Authority (PTA) will take a lead in developing the
operational and contracting operations for these services seeking to maximise benefit, minimise
impact and offer a smooth transition between the existing mode of operation to that of
performance-based contracts. The detail of a restructuring plan will evolve as issues are identified
and personalities established, however a high-level implementation plan is defined to give some
anticipation of task requirement.
The following tasks are earmarked for the preparatory phase for the BRT corridor (2019 – 2022):
• Develop and implement a social impact protection plan for those adversely affected by
the reform
The new authority, its funding and powers, must be established in law. In the short-term the board
of the PTA will be formed by the executive order of the Government, this board will comprise the
existing members of the STUMP coordination committee plus additional industry representatives.
This board will oversee the activities and development of the PTA.
The Governing Board shall be responsible for obtaining the approval of institutional set-up of the PTA
(may be named as CTCA, alike DTCA in Dhaka). The board will work to get the staffing organogram of
the authority approved under the revenue budget of GOB.
CMP needs to be further empowered to adequately control vehicle flows at junctions and enforce
traffic rules such as no stopping in the vicinity of junctions, parking only in designated spaces,
ensuring roadways are clear of market stalls. Capacity building can either be performed directly with
the existing CMP officers, or a team of community police offers could be hired to assist with traffic
management, following the model used in Dhaka.
CMP and BRTA should also work together to implement a public awareness campaign; with the
intention of improving adherence to traffic laws amongst the general population. More targeted
training could be carried out for groups such as bus drivers, with additional potential for carrying out
gender training for bus staff as part of this. The public should be made aware through such a
campaign that the local government plans to improve its enforcement of traffic law, and that they
will be liable for sanction of some sort should they be found in breach.
This should also encompass a ‘crack-down’ on eve-teasing and sexual harassment towards women
aboard public buses, as this currently reduces women’s perceived and actual safety on board buses,
significantly impacting their quality of life and also excluding a large potential market of passengers.
An enforcement body of some sort (either through the existing police or other)
Agglomeration within the bus sector is necessary in order to raise managerial capacity and improve
access to finance. As Chittagong is blessed with some operators of a reasonable size and reasonable
capability there is potential for agglomeration of operations facilitated by the implementing
organisation and the representative bodies of the operators.
The new companies should be registered in the office of the “Registrar of Joint Stock Companies”.
There should be a formal institutional set up (organogram) of the proposed companies to be filled up
with skilled professionals. The drivers and conductors must be employed by the company and they
will have an appointment letter indicating their salary and other terms and conditions as per the
decision of the Transport Authority.
The PTA and government will need to assist this process, for example enabling these companies to
gain the expertise of people experienced in business management. The government could also assist
through the provision of soft loans to purchase vehicles, or training in operating procedures where
appropriate.
Existing owners might become shareholders in a limited liability company by exchanging their
vehicles for shares to the market value of their vehicles. Owners could be given the choice of
becoming employees of the new company, or investors taking no active part in its operations. But in
either case they would receive a share of the company’s profit in the form of a dividend
proportionate to the value of their shares.
Even when vehicles are sold or scrapped, shareholdings would remain intact and the former owners
would continue to receive dividends. It should also be possible to encourage the development of
larger operating units by making it attractive for individuals or organizations to invest substantial
sums in fleets of buses, either through buying out existing owners, investing in new buses, or both.
This would require long-term security in terms of revenue and other conditions. In other words a
stable regulatory system and a fares policy that would enable an adequate return to be earned on
the investment.
Actions that are recommended to be undertaken between the years 2023 and 2025 center on the
delivery of the BRT corridor and supportive bus priority measures.
Cost
Area Cost Item Description
(USD M)
Funded in
Bus reform implementation
short-term
PT improvements
Total 328.9
The main activity to be performed during 2023 to 2025 is the implementation of the BRT corridor
along the spine and spur (green line) in accordance with the feasibility and design studies
undertaken in the short term. The total length of the corridor is 24 Km.
Preliminary design features of this corridor are presented in the pre-feasibility study which
accompanies this report entitled, D6a: Corridor Improvements Pre-Feasibility Study.
Priced into the BRT corridor is the purchase of over 1,000 new vehicles by 2030 to replace 9 bus
routes and 1 human hauler route. Industry reform and support are essential to develop a new
regulatory environment and business conditions so that finances can be gained for such a high level
of investment.
In the medium-term it is recommended that bus priority measures are installed on the two mass
transit candidate corridors which are not initially developed as BRT:
• Red line: Baluchara to Kotwali using Hathazari Rd, Mizapul Rd, Panchlaish Rd and Nabab
Siraj Ud Daula Rd, 10 Km
• Blue line: Alonkar Mor to Shaheed Boshiruzzaman Sq using Dhaka Trunk Road, Station Rd,
Kobi Kazi Nazrul Islam Rd, Mariner’s Dr. Rd, 9 Km
Bus priority measures can refer to a range of different actions to improve public transport reliability
and bus speeds. In this case, it is recommended that bus priority measures encompass:
Reform of the bus industry should continue through the implementation phase of the BRT corridor
and bus priority. The following enabling actions should be undertaken by the transport authority in
the medium term:
• Define, agree and appoint the third phase posts to act within the new formed executive
authority that will develop the bus reform process/BRT
• Work with industry to consolidate where required and develop needed skills to operate
under the new regime.
• Work with institutional partners on the implementation of BRT including specification of
control equipment and refinement of operational service plan
• Work with operators on forming new operating entities (as required), consolidation (as
required) and skill development
• Draft forms of contract
Mass transit will be required to support Chittagong’s growing population and economy. As BRT is
proposed for the Green line, feasibility studies for MRT should be performed in the medium-term to
consider alignments along these key corridors:
• Red line: Baluchara to Kotwali using Hathazari Rd, Mizapul Rd, Panchlaish Rd and Nabab Siraj
Ud Daula Rd, 10 Km
• Blue line: Alonkar Mor to Shaheed Boshiruzzaman Sq using Dhaka Trunk Road, Station Rd,
Kobi Kazi Nazrul Islam Rd, Mariner’s Dr Rd, 9 Km
The suitable mode, and design of these corridors should be determined through the feasibility study.
Actions that are recommended to be undertaken between the years 2026 and 2030 are listed in
Table 13-1 and mapped in Figure 13-1.
Cost
Cost Item Description
(USD M)
Construct Mass transit on the red
Dependant on a feasibility study uncosted
corridor (Oxygen to Kotwali)
Total 389.4
Bus priority measures should be installed on the secondary PT network. These road sections are
listed in Table 13-2 and mapped in Figure 13-2. They total 46.1 Km in length.
Length
Section
(Km)
Agrabad Access Rd - Port Connecting Rd to Badamtoli 2.4
Airport Rd - Cement Crossing to Chittagong Dry Dock 3.7
Ambagan Rd - Tigerpass to Flora Pass Rd 1.6
Arkan Rd, AJ Rd - Chawkbazar to New Bridge via Bahaddarhat 6.5
Bahir Signal to Kalurghat 2.3
Bayazid Bostami Rd - No. 2 Gate to Oxygen 4.4
Chatteswari Rd, Jubilee Rd - Golpahar Circle to New Market via Kazir Dewri 3.1
College Rd, Jamal Khan Rd - Chawkbazar to Anderkilla via Jamal Khan 2.3
Dhaka-Chittagong Hwy - AK Khan to Panchlaish Rd via GEC Circle 6.0
Enayet Bazar Rd - Cheragi Pahar to Batali Rd 0.8
K.B. Aman Ali Rd - Chawkbazar to AJ Rd 1.4
M.A. Aziz Rd, Kamal Ataturk Rd, Sea Beach Rd - Cement Crossing to Potenga 3.5
Reboti Mohan Ln - Almas to WASA Square 0.4
Shahid Saifuddin Khaled Rd - Jamal Khan to Ispahani Circle 1.6
Port Connecting Rd - AK Kahn to Nimtoli 6.1
Total 46.1
Primary PT corridors
The following actions are proposed in the long-term plan to consolidate PT terminals (Figure 10-1).
• Patenga
• Alongkar Mor
• Kalurghat
New bus terminals which serve both inter-district and city-bus services should be constructed at:
The transport modeling task has identified 18 junctions that become overly congested by 2030 and
require improvement (Table 10-6), upgrades at these junctions are therefore recommended for the
long-term based on the requirements set out in section 10.4.
• N1 / Colonel Jones Rd
• CDA Ave / Shahid Saifuddin Khaled Rd (Lalkan Bazaar)
As part of the city-wide plan for footpath improvements, the construction of 58 Km of footpaths
along main road is necessary in the long term. This includes:
Widening of some bridges which have been deemed to present a particular contribution to
congestion will help to ensure safety for all road users. An element of environmental resilience
should also be built into these upgrades in order to mitigate any potential negative impacts from
cyclones or flooding. The main objectives fulfilled by these actions are:
• Safety and security: Bridge-widening will help to ensure that pedestrians and NMVs are
not forced to the edges of the carriageway and put in unnecessary danger
• Economic efficiency: Ensuring there is an appropriate width throughout the road length
(including bridges) can help to ensure a smooth and consistent flow, helping to alleviate
waiting and congestion at pinch points
• Environmental: Bridges can be redesigned or upgraded with environmental difficulties in
mind, including protection from cyclones or more general flooding.
1 4 . I m p l e me n t a t i o n a r r a n g e me n t
The organisational structure for implementation is presented in Figure 14-1. The project steering
committee is chaired by the Ministry of Housing and Public Works. This committee guides the project
management unit which is chaired by CDA. This unit coordinates the following delivery agencies,
CCC, CDA, CMP and CPA.
Project Steering
Committee
(Chair is MOHPW)
Project Coordinating
Unit &
Project Management
Unit
(Chair is CDA)
• CDA
BRT planning design & implementation
Public transport terminals
• CCC
Road improvements
Junction improvements
Footpath improvements
• CMP
Design consultation
Traffic signals
Enforcement plan
• CPA
Freight waiting area, parking ban on Mooring Road
Port gate access improvement/control at 5 gates
A Public Transport Authority will be established to coordinate the transport related agencies in
Chittagong to deliver a public transport network that is integrated, efficient, cost-effective and
sustainable to meet the commuter’s needs. As specified in 10.7 this should be a new independent
body.
In the short-term the board of the PTA will be formed by the executive order of the
Government, this board will comprise the existing members of the STUMP coordination
committee plus additional industry representatives. This board will oversee the activities and
development of the PTA.
it is proposed that the authority will be initially financed from the SUTMP investment project. In the
medium-term the authority should become established as a Government Statutory Body under the
revenue budget of GOB and be placed under the Ministry of Road Transport and Bridges. It is to be
headed by an Executive Director, to be appointed by the Government for a definite period of time.
In the long-term it is recommended that the city develops the PTA into an urban transport authority
that includes the management and movement of private vehicles, taxis, parking, freight and non-
motorization transport.
1 5 . C o s t E s t i ma t e s
Costs are presented in Table 11-1, Table 12-1 and Table 13-1 for short, medium and long-term
actions respectively. This chapter identifies how these costs have been estimated.
In Chittagong, the capital costs for BRT and bus priory measures should include costs to reconstruct
the road pavement and footpaths. This is because the road pavement conditions are currently poor
contributing to the low capacity of the roads. The installation of a dedicated bus lane will take space
away from general traffic to use, therefore the entire roadway must be upgraded to increase
traveling speeds and maintain capacity for general traffic. As presented in section 7.3 the current
footpaths in Chittagong are either non-existent, too narrow or of a poor quality. Consequently, BRT
and bus priority measures should be accompanied by footpath construction. The cost estimates for
these constructions are presented below.
Table 15-1: Cost estimates for highway improvement that support BRT and bus priority
Table 15-2 lists recent international examples of costings for the development of BRT, these include
bus lanes, junction priority, stations, depot, vehicles and costs to establish an operations center.
These values range from USD 3.6million (per km) for an infrastructure light implementation in Hanoi
to USD 12.8million (per km) for an infrastructure-heavy implementation for Dhaka BRT line 3 North.
BRT Dhaka, line 7 36 205.3 5.7 Master plan estimate. JICA, 2015. Revision
and Updating of the Strategic Transport Plan
for Dhaka. Table 13.3, p13-2
BRT Dhaka, Line 3 20 255 12.8 Approved cost. Bangladesh Bridge Authority,
North 2017. BBA
BRT Karachi- Red line 23.1 125.2 5.4 ITP 2016, for Karachi BRT Preliminary Design
estimate (USD6.9m including all NMT
measures (off-street parking etc) included
BRT-Lite (Bus priority) 1.3 ITP 2016, for Yangon BRT Pre-FS
Considering these examples, it is estimated that the cost to install full BRT in Chittagong would be
USD 6.5 M per Km plus the cost to reconstruct the pavement and footpaths. This value has been
derived by uplifting the recent cost estimates for BRT in Karachi and Dhaka line 7 to account for
inflation.
Table 15-3: Estimated costs for BRT and bus priority development in Chittagong
Cost per km
Item
(USD M)
Cost per km
Item
(USD M)
15.2 PT terminals
The cost to construct new PT terminals is largely determined by the land required and construction
costs for the terminal building. The land requirement for new PT terminals is determined by the
number of buses which are expected to utilize it. SGArchitects (2014)39 provide guidance on the total
site area based on the maximum hourly flow of inter-district and city-bus services.
Table 15-4 presents the maximum forecast hourly flows at each new terminal and the corresponding
land required to serve this flow. This calculation assumes that depot and workshop facilities are
provided for inter-district buses, but not for city-bus/BRT.
39SGArchitects , 2014. Bus Terminal Design Guidelines. Accessible online at: http://shaktifoundation.in/wp-
content/uploads/2014/02/Bus-Terminal-Design-Guidelines.pdf
Table 15-4: Estimate of land required and cost for construction of new PT terminals
Raujan, Rangamati,
Inter-district & Baluchara 240 360 36 140 2 10.0 4.5 14.5
Khagrachori, Najirhat
city-bus terminal
New Bridge Anowara, Lohagara
(Shaheed and Potia, Cox's Bazar 797 1,200 120 120 5 25.0 7.5 32.5
Boshiruzzaman Sq) and Teknaf,
40 Looks up peak hour flow in SGArchitects (2014), Annex 4, p.116 & 164 Assumes 30min layover for inter-district services and 10min for city-bus/BRT
41 Based on consultants estimate of USD.5.0m per hectare for land with current residential or commercial purpose
42 Looks up peak hour flow in SGArchitects (2014) p.86 & 90 Assumes 30min layover for inter-district services and 10min for city-bus/BRT
43 50% more PT trips forecast by 2030
44 Peak hour movements are 10% of daily, based on route schedules
The cost of building a bus stop includes the deconstruction of existing footpath, construction of a
new raised footpath, construction of the shelter, painting of the road and installation of signage. ALG
(2015) 45 estimate the cost to install a stop with these specifications in Dhaka to be for USD 3,795 for
2 bays, USD 5,660 for 3 bays and USD 7,500 for 4 bays. Considering the high flow of PT vehicles in
Chittagong, and the requirement to improve ancillary footpath and pedestrian crossings the cost to
improve a single interchange is estimated to be USD 50,000.
15.4 Footpaths
The cost estimates for footpath construction are presented below, these include the cost of
installing a surface drain (300mm x 300mm) and drain pipe to the main drain. The cost to install
street lights includes the cost of (i) Pole, (ii) Pole fitting, (iii) Sodium light, (iv) Pole light wiring, (v)
circuit breaker, SDB & others, and (vi) civil works.
Adding the cost for street lights onto the cost to install a 3.3m wide pavement yields a total cost of
500,000 USD per km, for footpaths on both sides of the road. The comparative cost for footpath
construction in Dhaka is 650,000 USD per km.
45 ALG 2015. Dhaka Bus Network Reform Stud. Vol. 2, Chpt 6, Table 6.14
Costs to upgrade junctions have been estimated as part of the pre-feasibility study for road scheme
improvements. The pre-feasibility study presents concept designs for the upgrade of 12 diverse
junctions from across the city.
Table 15-6 presents the costs of each of the 12 concept designs. The following works items have
been included in these estimations:
Costs for the 49 junctions that are upgraded in the short term have been estimated by matching
each of the 49 junctions with the most appropriate junction concept design.
The construction costs for a railway level crossing are estimated to be USD 310,000 per site on
average. This includes the cost to resurface the roadway 50m up and downstream.
The construction costs for bridge widening are estimated to be USD 1.2 M per site on average.
The transport model has been used to test the impact of the SUTMP on future travel conditions. The
procedures used to model projects and measures entailed adjusting link capacity and speed to
reflect the likely impact of each intervention. Examples include:
• BRT and bus priority improvements were modeled through speed guarantees provided to
PT vehicles using such infrastructure
• The organisation and construction of PT terminals increase road capacity within the
vicinity, while passengers benefit from a reduced interchange penalty
• Junction improvements were modeled by increasing road capacity and speed on
approach to junctions
• Railway crossing and bridge widening improvements increase road capacity and speed on
approach
• Establishment of controlled parking zones was modeled by increasing capacity on roads
in proportion to the demand to park in that zone
• Mode choice is modeled for all interventions
The SUTMP scenario includes the addition of mass transit on the red and blue corridors by 2030
(Figure 13-1). While the mode chosen for these mass transit corridors depends on a feasibility study,
the modeling exercise has assumed that they will be implemented as BRT.
Figure 16-1 presents the results of the modeled impact of the SUTMP upon aggregate measures of
traffic. The plan acts to increase average speeds and reduce total vehicle distance compared to the
do-minimum scenario. By 2030 average speeds of 12 Kph are attained in the PM peak instead of 7
Kph in the do-minimum scenario. Furthermore, the distance traveled by all vehicles in the PM peak
hour reduces 11% by 2030.
Figure 16-2 presents the modeled impact of the SUTMP upon future mode split. It shows that the
implementation of the SUTMP is expected to increase PT use in the future while reducing
car/motorcycle use. By 2030 the SUTMP is expected to increase PT use from 39% of trips to 45%,
while car use decreased from 16% to 8%.
Figure 16-4 and Figure 16-5 compares the modeled car speeds on each road link for years 2025 and
2030. These figures show that implementation of the SUTMP acts to increase vehicle speeds on
arterial roads, on the ‘spine’ of CDA Avenue and on roads in the city center.
400,000 14
300,000
10 Do Min: Total veh-kms (left axis)
250,000
8 STUMP: Total veh-kms (left axis)
200,000
Do Min: All veh speed (right axis)
6
150,000 SUTMP: Ave speed (right axis)
4
100,000
50,000 2
0 0
2017 2022 2025 2030
30% Walk
400,000
350,000
300,000
Truck
250,000
Car/motorcycle
200,000
CNG/Rickshaw
150,000
Walk
100,000 PT
50,000
0
2022 2022 2025 2025 2030 2030
Do-minSUTMP Do-min SUTMP Do-minSUTMP
Table 16-1: Modelled impact on vehicle speed by mode, PM peak hour (Kph)
2025 2030
Mode Do- Do-
SUTMP SUTMP
minimum minimum
Figure 16-4: Car speeds in PM Peak 2025, for do-minimum (left) and SUTMP (right)
Figure 16-5: Car speeds in PM Peak 2030, for do-minimum (left) and SUTMP (right)
Figure 16-1 shows that implementation of the SUTMP reduces vehicle-kms, while Figure 16-2 shows
that the plan changes the balance of modes in the city. Both of these changes have implications
upon GHG emissions. Figure 16-6 presents the forecast impact upon annual GHG emissions. The
implementation of the SUTMP is expected to reduce annual GHG emissions by 53,000 T CO2e in
2030, this represents an 18% reduction upon the do-minimum scenario.
As mentioned in section 8.3.1, it is the total accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere which causes
climate change. By 2030, the SUTMP is forecast to save a total emission of 0.3 M Tonnes of GHG
gasses by 2030 and 0.8 M Tonnes by 2040.
250,000
200,000
DoMin
150,000
SUTMP
100,000
50,000
0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Implementation of the SUTMP also acts to reduce the emissions of local air pollutants from
transport. Figure 16-7 and Figure 16-8 present the forecast impact upon particulates and nitrous
oxide emissions. By 2030 the SUTMP is expected to reduce annual PMx emissions by 19% and
nitrous oxide emissions by 23% in comparison to the do-minimum scenario.
60
50
Anuual T PMx
40
DoMin
30
SUTMP
20
10
0
2017 2022 2025 2030
1200
1000
Anuual T NOx
800
DoMin
600 SUTMP
400
200
0
2017 2022 2025 2030
The SUTMP is forecast to have significant economic benefits which will be experienced within the
study area. There are generally three forms of benefits from such a transport scheme: consumer
benefits, producer benefits and externalities. To calculate the benefits, it is only the estimated
change that is relevant and required.
• Consumer benefits are derived from the lower cost incurred by passengers of PT,
CNG/rickshaw and the users of cars. In the absence of fare changes, this is driven by
lower time costs for PT and CNG passengers. For users of cars this includes lower time
costs and lower vehicle operating costs.
• Producer benefits are the increase in economic benefits derived by the providers of PT,
CNG/rickshaw services and the operators of trucks. In this project the main benefit is
derived from the reduction of vehicle operating costs by displacing passengers from small
and older PT vehicles to more efficient buses.
• Externalities are benefits transferred to society in general rather those directly involved
as either consumers or producers. Examples of externalities include lower vehicle
emissions and higher safety levels.
The economic appraisal scenario follows the staged approach for implementation concerning short,
medium and long-term actions in chapters 11, 11.3 and 12.2:
• The short-term actions are implemented between 2019 and 2022 have a capital cost of
USD 118.3M and land costs of USD 47.5 M (Table 11-1)
• The medium-term actions are implemented between 2023 and 2025 have a capital cost
of USD 328.9M and land costs of USD 73.5M (Table 12-1)
• The long-term actions that are costed sum to USD 389.4M for implementation between
2036 and 2030 (Table 13-1). But Table 13-1 does not include the construction costs of
mass transit on the red corridor and the blue corridor because the mode of these lines is
to be determined by future feasibility studies. The economic appraisal presented here
assumes that the chosen mode of these corridors is to be BRT. The cost to upgrade the
bus priority measures implemented on these corridors in the medium term to BRT is
estimated to be USD 6M per km. This derives an additional cost of USD 116.4M to
implement BRT on the red and blue corridors, which increases the long-term project
costs to total USD 505.8M.
The total capital cost of the SUTMP (2019-2030) therefore stands at USD 952.9M, assuming that BRT
is the chosen mode for the red and blue corridors, with land costs of USD 121M.
The appraisal period runs from 2019 to 2040. It starts in 2019 to match the beginning of the
implementation period.
17.2 Assumptions
The appraisal considers an equity value of time, this presents an average value of time across all
modes. Applying a common value of time rather than the differentiated value of time by mode (as in
the demand forecasting) ensures that the benefits to private car users (who typically have higher
incomes and values of time) are not prioritised over benefits to public transport users or walkers.
The equity value of time starts at USD 0.71 per hour in 2017 rising to USD 2.53 per hour in 2040, in-
line with the forecast increase in GDP per capita provided by the IMF46.
The equity VOT is derived from modal values calculated by the Bangladesh Road Research
Laboratory (BRRL)47 (Table 17-1).
Vehicle operating costs are also provided by the BRRL48, the values used in the economic appraisal
are presented in Table 17-2. BRRL provide data on vehicle operating costs between the years 2004
and 2016. This data shows that transport prices rises have risen slower than general inflation49.
Between 2004 and 2016, prices to travel by PT have increased by 5.3% annually, for car travel prices
have risen 4.3% annually, for rickshaw/CNG travel it is 4.8% annually and for trucks 3.9% annually.
All of these annualised price rises sit below the level of general inflation of 7.5% observed between
the years 2004 and 2016, as reported by the World Bank.
Transport prices in Bangladesh have therefore decreased in real terms over the last decade. To
provide a conservative estimate of future transport prices, we have assumed that transport prices
will hold steady in real terms.
The IMF forecast GDP growth for Bangladesh to be 6.8% per annum between 2017 and 202150.
Considering this forecast, and World Bank guidance on discounting costs51, a discount rate of 13.6%
is applied.
The PM-peak hour is modeled in the transport model because this was observed to be the most
congested time of day (Table 7-1). 6% of the all-day traffic was observed to flow during the PM-peak
hour (Figure 4-6). To factor up the PM-peak benefits to represent the whole day, a value of 16.7 (1 ÷
6%) is used for distance-based benefits, while half of the factor, 8.7, is used for time-based benefits.
Time-based benefits receive half the factor because most of the gains occur in the peak-periods
when congestion is at its worst. The factor used for the annulation of the benefits is 312.
48 Bangladesh Road Research Laboratory (BRRL) and Roads and Highways Department (RHD) 2017. Review of
existing road user cost estimation procedure used in RHD and update the same under BRRL during the year 2016-2017.
49 World Bank 2018. Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG
50 International Monetary Fund 2016. World Economic Outlook Database
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/weoselgr.aspx
51 World Bank 2016. Discounting Costs and Benefits in Economic Analysis of World Bank Projects
Table 17-3: Journey time savings for users of PT, car and Rickshaw/CNG
Mode
Do SUTMP Saving Do SUTMP Saving Do SUTMP Saving
Min Min Min
The implementation of the scheme is forecast to save a total of 5,427 million hours for consumers
between the years 2019 and 2040. Considering the equity VOT, this yields total benefits with a
Present Value (PV) of approximately USD 2,054 million.
It is assumed that fares for PT and rickshaw/CNG will remain the same in the future, therefore users
of PT and rickshaw/CNG will only benefit from the lower journey times presented above. In contrast,
car users will benefit from lower vehicle operating costs derived from lower vehicle-kms. The
implementation of the SUTMP is expected to save a total of 738 million veh-kms between 2019 and
2040. This yields benefits with a PV of approximately USD 43 million.
Total consumer benefits accumulated between the years 2019 and 2040 have a PV of USD 2,098
million. This constitutes 90% of the total benefits (see Figure 17-1).
wages. Reductions in veh-kms are attributable to a shift to the use of larger PT vehicles and reduced
congestion that enables more direct routing. Table 17-4 presents the veh-kms savings in the
modeled PM-peak hour as well as factored-up values for the year.
Table 17-4: Vehicle-km savings for operators of PT, Rickshaw/CNG and truck
BRRL provides the operating costs by mode (Table 17-2). For the PT, rickshaw/CNG and truck
operators, the implementation of the scheme will save a total of 2,633 million veh-kms between
2019 and 2040. This equates to a PV benefit of USD 164 million attributable to the reduction in
vehicle operating cost.
The additional benefits in time savings accrued by truck operators are expected to total 117 million
hours up to 2040. This equates to a PV benefit of USD 43 million. Total producer benefits
accumulated between the years 2019 and 2040 therefore have a PV of USD 207 million. This
constitutes 9% of the total benefits (see Figure 17-1).
As highlighted above, the SUTMP is expected to reduce the number of vehicle-kms for each mode:
• For PT vehicles, this is attributable to a shift from small vehicles such as the existing
buses, tempo and human-haulers to large buses
• For other road users (car, rickshaw-type, truck) this is attributable to faster travel speeds
encouraging drivers to choose more direct journeys
• Mode shift from car and rickshaw/CNG to PT vehicles enables further reduction in veh-
kms.
The reduction in vehicle-kms generates an associated reduction in Green House Gas (GHG) emissions
as less fossil fuel is burned (Figure 16-6). Considering the average GHG emissions per vehicle-
kilometer for each mode, we forecast scheme implementation to save a total 0.8M T tonnes of
CO2equivalent between the years 2019 and 2040.
The World Bank52 calculates the social value of each tonne of CO2e saved to be USD 30 in 2015 rising
to USD 80 in 2050. The application of this value yields a PV benefit of USD 8 million between the
years 2019 and 2040 attributable to GHG reduction.
The reduction in vehicle-kms will also yield a reduction in the number of traffic accidents. The BRRL
calculate the current accident rate for Bangladesh to be 101 Killed and Seriously Injured (KSI) people
per Billion vehicle-kms53. BRRL consider each of these instances to have a social cost of USD 47,000.
Considering growth in GDP per capita this value is forecast to increase to USD 157,000 by 2040.
The SUTMP is expected to save a total of 3,370 million vehicle-kms between 2019 and 2040, this
should translate into a reduction of 341 road traffic KSI accidents during this time period. This
translates into a PV benefit of USD 8 million.
The total PV benefit that combines the producer benefits, consumer benefits and external benefits is
USD 2,321 million.
52http://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climatechange/brief/integrating-climate-change-world-bank
53Bangladesh Road Research Laboratory (BRRL) and Roads and Highways Department (RHD) 2017. Review of
existing road user cost estimation procedure used in RHD and update the same under BRRL during the year 2016-2017.
Consumer
surplus
89%
BCR 4.1
The economic appraisal indicators highlighted in the table above show that the scheme will:
• Generate total Net PV of USD 1,759 million. Therefore, the total PV of benefits exceeds
the PV of costs. A net PV value greater than zero is indicative of an economically feasible
project.
• Produce a Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) of 4.1, indicating that every USD 1.00 expended on the
project as costs will yield USD 4.10 in benefits.
• Have an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 44% indicating that net PV and BCR will remain
above zero and unity, respectively, below discount rates of this (high) value.
The Figure below presents the cumulative benefits and costs in PV terms over the horizon of the
forecast period (2019-2040).
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Year
• The project costs are front-ended; high for the initial years and decelerate over the life-
cycle of the project. This is typical of infrastructure projects which require initial and
significant capital infrastructure costs.
• The project benefits are minimal in the initial years as most of the phase 1 work only
becomes operational in the year 2022 and phase 2 operational in 2025.
• The economic breakeven year is between the years 2026 and 2027, as depicted by the
intersection between the benefit and cost curves. It is therefore important that the
project life extends beyond this date.
To test the sensitivity of the economic analysis a 20% reduction in journey time savings and/or 20%
increase in capital costs have been analysed and the results are summarised in the table below.
Table 17-5 reveals that with both a 20% reduction in journey time savings benefits and a 20%
increase in capital costs, the SUTMP will remain economically feasible, with a BCR of 3.8, net PV of
USD 1,182 million and an IRR of 33%.