CH3.

13
Weedwacker Company

P1 P2 B1 B2
30000 10000 0 5000
Cost 55 85 67 95 2975000
Demand Elec 1 1 30000 30000
Demand Gas 1 1 15000 15000
Production 0.2 0.4 10000 10000
Assembly 0.3 0.5 14000 15000
Packaging 0.1 0.1 4000 5000

P1=30,000 P2=10,000B1=0 B2=5000

For the company to Minimize the Cost and satisfy the demand
it needs to make 30,000 electric trimmer and 10,000 Gas trimmer itself
and buy 5,000 Gas trimmer and no(zero) electric trimmer units from
competitors

CH3.27

X1A X1B X1C X1D X2A X2B X2C X2D

0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
185 225 193 207 200 190 175 225
Component1 1 1 1 1
Component2 1 1 1 1
Component3
Component4
CompanyA 1 1
CompanyB 1 1
CompanyC 1 1
CompanyD 1 1
X1B=1 X2A=1 X3D=1 X4C=1
For the company to minimize payment to subcontractors, it needs to assign component 1 to company B, component 2 to com
component 3 to D and component4 to C

CH11.Q4-10
2-period 4-period
Year Sales moving avg
1 283
2 288
3 336 285.5
4 388 312
5 406 362 323.75
Sales
6 412 397 354.5
600
7 416 409 385.5
8 435 414 405.5 500
9 428 425.5 417.25
400
10 435 431.5 422.75
11 462 431.5 428.5
Sales

300
12 452 448.5 440
200
13 474 457 444.25
14 476 463 455.75 100
15 497 475 466
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Year
 200

100

0
16 487 486.5 474.75 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
17 523 492 483.5 Year
18 528 505 495.75
19 532 525.5 508.75
20 552 530 517.5
542 533.75
Comparison of 2-period and 4-pe
predictions against origina
4- The graph is non-stationary
600
5-Two- periode and four-periode moving average
500

2-period 4-period 400

moving avgmovingavg 300

Sale
Year Sales
1 283 200
2 288 100
3 336 285.5 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
4 388 312
5 406 362 323.75 Year
6 412 397 354.5
7 416 409 385.5 Sales 2-period moving avg
8 435 414 405.5
9 428 425.5 417.25
10 435 431.5 422.75
11 462 431.5 428.5
12 452 448.5 440
13 474 457 444.25
14 476 463 455.75
15 497 475 466
16 487 486.5 474.75
17 523 492 483.5
18 528 505 495.75
19 532 525.5 508.75
20 552 530 517.5

b. The moving average predictions tend to understimate the actual data, because the actual sale is increasi
The actual sale of new year is greater than 2 and 4 past years sales average
c.Forcasts for the next 2-years
2-period 4-period
Year Sales moving avgmovingavg
1 283 1
2 288 0
3 336 285.5 1
4 388 312 726.2647
5 406 362 323.75
6 412 397 354.5
 7 416 409 385.5
8 435 414 405.5
9 428 425.5 417.25
Chart Title
10 435 431.5 422.75
600
11 462 431.5 428.5
12 452 448.5 440 500
13 474 457 444.25
463 455.75 400
14 476
15 497 475 466 300
16 487 486.5 474.75
17 523 492 483.5 200
18 528 505 495.75
100
19 532 525.5 508.75
20 552 530 517.5 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
21 542 533.75
22 542 533.75 Sales 2-period moving avg

23 542 533.75
24 542 533.75

6.C

Year Sales 3-Period moving Avg

1 283
2 288 W1 0
3 336 W2 0
4 388 302.3333 W3 1
Chart Title
5 406 337.3333
600
6 412 376.6667 SUM
7 416 402 MSE 1162.725 500
8 435 411.3333
9 428 421 400

10 435 426.3333 300

11 462 432.6667
12 452 441.6667 200
13 474 449.6667
100
14 476 462.6667
15 497 467.3333 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
16 487 482.3333
17 523 486.6667 Sales 3-Period movin
18 528 502.3333
19 532 512.6667
20 552 527.6667
6.b

Year Sales
1 283
2 288
3 336
4 388
5 406
6 412
7 416
8 435
9 428
10 435
11 462
12 452
13 474
14 476
15 497
16 487
17 523
18 528
19 532
20 552

7.a. Double moving average for k=4

Year Sales 4-period Double MA

1 283
2 288
3 336
4 388
5 406 323.75
6 412 354.5
7 416 385.5
8 435 405.5
9 428 417.25 367.3125
10 435 422.75 390.6875
Chart Title
11 462 428.5 407.75
600
12 452 440 418.5
13 474 444.25 427.125 500
14 476 455.75 433.875
15 497 466 442.125 400

16 487 474.75 451.5 300

17 523 483.5 460.1875
200

100

0
 400

300

18 528 495.75 470 200

19 532 508.75 480
100
20 552 517.5 490.6875
21 501.375 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
21 501.375
Sales 4-period MA
7.b. Forecast for next 2 years is 501.375

8.Exponential Smoothing Model

Year Sales Predicted sales

1 283 283 alpha 0.223826568
2 288 283 MSE 438.0505841
3 336 289.1191
4 388 346.4932
5 406 397.2903 Actual sales versu
6 412 407.9495
600
7 416 412.9066
8 435 416.6924 500
9 428 439.0977 400
10 435 425.516

Sales
300
11 462 437.1228
200
12 452 467.5682
13 474 448.5154 100
14 476 479.7041 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1
15 497 475.1709
16 487 501.8859 Year
17 523 483.6681
18 528 531.8035 Sales Predicted sale
19 532 527.1487
20 552 533.0859
21 556.2335
22 556.2335

b. The optimal value of alpha is: 0.224

c-Prediction for the next 2 years

21 556.2335
22 556.2335

9.Holt's method

Year Sales
1 283
2 288
3 336
4 388
5 406
6 412
7 416
8 435
9 428
10 435
11 462
12 452
13 474
14 476
15 497
16 487
17 523
18 528
19 532
20 552
 0
0

X3A X3B X3C X3D X4A X4B X4C X4D

0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0
330 320 315 300 375 389 425 445 1150
1 1
1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
mpany B, component 2 to company A,

Sales

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year
 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year

on of 2-period and 4-period average

edictions against original sales

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year

2-period moving avg 4-period movingavg

ause the actual sale is increasing every year

 Chart Title

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

2-period moving avg 4-period movingavg

Chart Title

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Sales 3-Period moving Avg

Chart Title
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Sales 4-period MA Double MA

Actual sales versus predicted sales

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Year

Sales Predicted sales