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Company
Appen (APX)
Key Points
Ross Barrows
Key Insights: i) Group revenue of $183m was -7% vs pcp. due to the “lower contribution from the ross.barrows@wilsonsadvisory.com.au
Global division due to weaker digital advertising demand and a resultant slowdown in spending Tel. +61 3 9640 3854
by some of [Appen’s] biggest customers”; ii) lower revenue and higher investments
(transformation, product, technology) and an FX loss all resulted in Underlying EBITDA (after FX) Cameron Halkett
being down -69% vs pcp. at $8.5m; and iii) On the back of this result and the increased cameron.halkett@wilsonsadvisory.com.au
uncertainty surrounding customer spend, management also cut the interim dividend to nil to Tel. +61 2 8247 3162
“ensure appropriate allocation of capital”
Lachlan Woods
Guidance and Outlook: Conversion of forward orders to sales “occurring at lower rates than lachlan.woods@wilsonsadvisory.com.au
previous years” and the company is seeing “no material improvement in August monthly trading Tel. +61 3 9640 3818
volume than in July”. As such Appen expects its FY22e revenue skew to be weighted to 2H, with
2H revenue expected to be below prior years due to the “slowdown of Global Customers”. They
also “expect FY22 EBITDA and FY22 EBITDA margin to be materially lower than FY21 due to
12-mth price performance ($)
lower revenues” and higher operating costs from greater investments;
Forecasts and Revisions: On the back of today’s outlook and commentary around global demand 16.00
we have trimmed our FY22e-FY24e revenue by -7% to -11%. This along with us expecting 14.00
Appen to continue to hold a higher operating cost base for longer, results in us reducing our
12.00
FY22e–FY24e EBITDA by -31% to -43%. We are expecting the 2H skew in EBITDA to increase
materially to 70% which is up from 64% in FY21. This reveals the difficulty in forecasting this 10.00
business and also the significant ‘slippage’ risk Appen has in regards to the uncertainty of when 8.00
contracts will actually land. 6.00
Valuation: We retain our MarketWeight rating, lower our FY22e-FY24e EBITDA forecasts by 4.00
Aug-21 Dec-21 Apr-22 Aug-22
-31% to -43% and lower our target price -9% to $4.03. Our valuation of $4.03 per share is
APX XSO
based on using an FY23 EV/EBITDA multiple of ~8.5x vs. Appen’s current multiple of 8.8x. In
comparison, this represents a -24% discount to its domestic ASX software peers which are
1-mth 6-mth 12-mth
trading on an average multiple of ~13x. This discount is seen as warranted given the company’s
revenue and EBITDA is expected to go backwards, and its revenues are largely project based. Abs return (%) (26.3) (40.2) (71.5)
Rel return (%) (29.2) (32.9) (63.9)
Financial summary (Y/E Dec, USD) FY20A FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Key changes 3-Aug After Var %
Sales ($m) 412.6 447.2 392.8 405.4 448.7 Sales FY22E 422.7 392.8 -7%
Consensus sales ($m) 394.7 430.7 466.9 ($m) FY23E 457.5 405.4 -11%
Sales growth (%) 8.4 (12.2) 3.2 10.7 FY24E 506.9 448.7 -11%
EBITDA norm ($m) 75.4 77.7 29.0 35.9 44.5 EBITDA FY22E 42.1 29.0 -31%
EV/Sales (x) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 norm FY23E 60.9 35.9 -41%
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.9 3.9 11.0 8.5 6.7 ($m) FY24E 78.2 44.5 -43%
P/E (x) 9.7 10.4 n/m n/m n/m Price target 4.44 4.03 -9%
Rating M/W M/W
Source: Company data, Wilsons estimate, Refinitiv.
All amounts are in US Dollar ($) unless otherwise stated.
P&L ($m) FY20A FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Balance sheet ($m) FY20A FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E
Sales 412.6 447.2 392.8 405.4 448.7 Cash & equivalents 60.5 47.9 36.5 49.9 54.4
EBITDA norm 75.4 77.7 29.0 35.9 44.5 Current receivables 50.6 89.2 82.5 81.1 89.8
EBIT norm 47.5 42.6 (9.9) (6.3) (0.4) Current inventory 31.5 10.5 9.4 8.1 9.0
PBT norm 45.0 41.3 (11.8) (8.5) (3.0) PPE 22.0 16.7 17.3 18.1 19.1
NPAT norm 36.1 33.9 (8.9) (6.4) (2.3) Intangibles 275.8 314.8 309.9 299.7 289.4
NPAT reported 35.3 28.5 (8.9) (6.4) (2.3) Other assets 21.2 19.9 28.9 28.9 28.9
EPS norm (cents) 29.7 27.6 (7.2) (5.2) (1.8) Total assets 461.6 498.9 484.6 485.8 490.6
DPS (cents) 10.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 Current payables 44.2 41.6 39.7 41.4 45.4
Total debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Growth (%) FY20A FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Other liabilities 43.8 65.4 70.4 71.5 78.8
Sales 8.4 (12.2) 3.2 10.7 Total liabilities 87.9 107.0 110.1 112.9 124.2
EBITDA norm 3.0 (62.7) 24.0 23.9 Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NPAT norm (6.1) (126.2) (27.9) (64.6) Shareholders equity 373.7 391.9 374.5 372.9 366.3
EPS norm (cents) (6.8) (126.1) (28.1) (64.7)
DPS (cents) 0.0 (100.0) n/m n/m Cash flow ($m) FY20A FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E
Operating cash flow 64.7 53.9 25.9 40.1 38.4
Margins and returns (%) FY20A FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Maintenance capex (0.9) (0.7) (2.0) (1.2) (1.3)
EBITDA margin 18.3 17.4 7.4 8.9 9.9 Free cash flow 63.8 53.3 24.0 38.9 37.1
EBIT margin 11.5 9.5 (2.5) (1.5) (0.1) Growth capex (0.9) (0.7) (2.0) (1.2) (1.3)
PBT margin 10.9 9.2 (3.0) (2.1) (0.7) Acquisitions/disposals (27.8) (27.7) (2.9) 0.0 0.0
NPAT margin 8.8 7.6 (2.3) (1.6) (0.5) Dividends paid (7.4) (9.3) (5.0) 0.0 (4.3)
ROA 10.3 8.5 n/m n/m n/m Other cash flow (23.5) (28.2) (25.4) (24.3) (26.9)
ROIC 15.2 12.4 n/m n/m n/m Cash flow pre-financing 4.2 (12.6) (11.3) 13.3 4.5
ROE 9.7 8.7 n/m n/m n/m Funded by equity 25.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Funded by cash/debt (58.9) 12.6 11.3 (13.3) (4.5)
Interims ($m) 1H21A 2H21A 1H22A 2H22E 1H23E
Sales 196.5 250.6 182.8 209.9 188.3 Liquidity FY20A FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E
EBITDA norm 27.7 50.0 8.6 20.4 11.6 Cash conversion (%) 103.6 77.4 94.6 112.0 90.6
EBIT norm 11.6 31.0 (10.4) 0.4 (9.7) Net debt ($m) (60.5) (47.9) (36.5) (49.9) (54.4)
PBT norm 10.9 30.3 (11.1) (0.7) (10.8) Net debt / EBITDA (x) (0.8) (0.6) (1.3) (1.4) (1.2)
NPAT norm 9.2 24.7 (8.7) (0.2) (8.1) ND / ND + Equity (%) (19.3) (13.9) (10.8) (15.4) (17.4)
NPAT reported 6.7 21.8 (9.4) 0.5 (8.1) EBIT / Interest expense (x) 19.0 31.1 (5.2) (2.8) (0.2)
EPS norm (cents) 7.5 20.1 (7.1) (0.1) (6.6)
DPS (cents) 4.5 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Valuation FY20A FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E
EV / Sales (x) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7
Stock specific FY20A FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E EV / EBITDA (x) 3.9 3.9 11.0 8.5 6.7
Global Services Revenue 328.1 344.7 296.4 302.4 326.5 EV / EBIT (x) 6.2 7.2 n/m n/m n/m
New Markets Revenue 84.5 102.5 96.3 103.1 122.1 P / E (x) 9.7 10.4 n/m n/m n/m
Total Revenue 413.0 447.3 392.9 405.6 448.9 P / BV (x) 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0
Global Services EBITDA 88.3 91.2 56.3 59.0 65.3 FCF yield (%) 17.9 14.9 6.5 10.5 10.0
New Markets EBITDA (7.5) (11.5) (25.0) (20.6) (18.3) Dividend yield (%) 3.5 3.5 0.0 0.0 1.2
Total EBITDA 75.4 77.7 29.0 35.9 44.5 Payout ratio (%) 33.7 36.2 0.0 0.0 (191.1)
EBITDA Margin (%) 18.3 17.4 7.4 8.9 9.9 Franking (%) 50.0 50.0 50.0
Weighted shares (m) 121.7 122.7 123.1 123.3 123.5
• Total Revenue of $182.9mm (-7% vs. pcp.) was down due to “weaker advertising demand and a resultant
slowdown in spending by some of our large customers”
• Global Services revenue fell +7.4% vs. pcp to $137.8m impacted by reduced spend by some of Appen’s global
customers. Appen’s five biggest customers account for ~81.4% (1H21: 87.1%) of the Group’s total revenue, so
any movements in their spend can impact Appen’s revenue and bottom line considerably.
• New Markets (Enterprise, Government, and China) revenue fell -5.7% vs. pcp. to $45m (1H21: $47.8m) which
was predominately due to Global Product (now 23.6% of New Markets revenue vs. 46.7% in pcp) falling -35%.
China (40% of New Market revenue vs. 15.7% in pcp) grew strongly at +141% YoY or 5% HoH. Lastly,
Enterprise (36.4% of revenue vs. 37.7% in pcp) fell -9% vs pcp.
• EBITDA (Underlying, ex-FX) of $8.6m (-69% pcp., 4.7% margin). Segmentally, Global Services EBITDA of
$26.2m (19.0% margin) was down -24% vs $34.4m (23.1% margin) in the pcp, and New Markets doubled its
EBITDA loss at -$15.6m (-35% margin) vs -$7.4m (-16% margin). We expect the trend of this loss in New
Market to continue as it looks to expand into Japan and Korea and grow market share in China.
• Dividend was cancelled, which was a significant reduction from 4.5cps in the pcp. We do not see this as a
positive sign of how Appen is performing but note its balance sheet is strong enough to warrant any cashflow
concerns. No guidance was given on the 2H dividend, nor when dividends would resume. We have assumed
dividends restart in FY24e.
• Balance Sheet remains robust with $42.2m in net cash (FY21: $47.9m) which is down $5.7m over the half.
• FY22 EBITDA and margin is expected to be “materially lower than FY21 mainly due to lower revenues as well
as an investment in product, technology and transformation”.
• FY22 revenue, “skew to be weighted to 2H, although revenue not expected to be at prior year levels due to
slowdown of Global Customers”.
• YTD Revenue and Orders-In-Hand of US$360m as of Aug-22 which is in line with Aug-21. Management also
stated that they expect the conversion of forward orders to sales occurring at lower rates than prior years (see
YTD Revenue section below for more detail).
• Monthly Trading in August had shown no material improvement on July which management had previously
outlined was resulting in “uncertainty about a continued slowdown of spending for our Global Customers and
their exposure to weaker digital advertising demand.” This is not seen as a positive for 2H22e.
Looking further out, Appen reiterated the following long-term guidance for FY26e. On the back of this half’s results
and still failing to see any traction from Appen’s past investments we see these goals as increasingly unlikely and
will likely be revised down.
• Grow Revenue in excess of $900m (>2x FY21 Revenue), implying a ~15% CAGR
A summary of what this growth strategy would imply is outlined below. Please note these calculations are based on
Appen’s FY26 EBITDA margin being exactly 20% and there being no Finance & Other Income. As such we have
assumed all the growth is from Global Services and New Markets with New markets hitting 33% of revenue in
FY26.
Figure 2 below shows an example of how Appen could reach ~$900m of revenue in FY26e/
Note that we are currently forecasting Appen to reach $538m in revenue in FY26e, which is -40% below Appen’s
long term target.
Figure 2: Appen’s FY26 Growth Strategy – Based on FY26 EBITDA Margin being 20% and New Markets Being 33% of Revenue
FY21 FY26 CAGR (% p.a.)
Global Services 344.7 596.7 12%
New Markets 102.5 297.9 24%
Finance & Other Income 0.2 NA
Total Revenue 447.3 894.7 15%
EBITDA 77.7 178.9 18%
EBITDA Margin % 17% 20%
Source: Wilsons, Appen.
As outlined above Appen’s YTD Revenue plus Orders in Hand of ~$360m (Aug-22) was in line with August 2021.
On the call management provided the following two comments on what its order book consists of and how they see
their Orders in Hand and Purchase Orders shaping compared to previous years:
“Year to date revenue plus work in hand plus purchase orders received and yet to be delivered”. And
“we're getting less work from the customer as they pull back. So those purchase orders aren't committed.
It provides an indication for us of the amount of budget, for example, that they've allocated to the program.
And as we've seen in the first half of this year, and we expect it to continue into the second half, they're
spending at a lower rate than those purchase orders.”
“Now the number of POs that we've got between when we last provided the order book and now is lower
than prior years and that's indicative of the market conditions. But the conversion of those POs is
happening at a lower rate than last year. So that order book is converting to revenue at a lower rate. We
don't factor the order book, we just report it. So we don't make any statistical-based adjustment to that
order book. We add it up, we report it. And what we're seeing now is that the conversion rates we've used
historically aren't going to apply going forward because of what we've seen year-to-date.”
On the back of these comments we have outlined below in Figure 3 which summarises how August’s order book
compares to our FY22 revenue estimate. As can be seen, we assume it will be a larger proportion of revenue
compared to previous years due to fewer new wins (i.e. lower conversion rates in the remaining 4 months of the
year.
At its 1H21 result in August 2021, Appen guided to an “expected 2H revenue skew (weighted to fourth quarter)”,
which we phrased as a “skew to the skew”. Figure 5 below shows that the 1H/2H revenue skew in FY21 was
44%/56%. On the 26th of May this year, and reiterated in today’s presentation Appen stated it expects “FY22
revenue skew to be weighted to the 2H” and that its “revenue [is] not expected to be at prior year levels due to a
slowdown of Global Customers”. This has resulted in us reducing our 2H22 revenue estimates which results in our
1H/2H revenue skew improving slightly.
What is of more interest though is the increase in skew from an EBITDA level given Appen’s higher operating costs
due to its higher investments (transformation, product, technology), as well as lower revenue estimates resulting in
lower operating leverage. Our 1H/2H skew has improved from 36%/64% in FY21 to 30%/70% in FY22, and up from
the 20%/80% in our prior forecast. It’s important to note though that given Appen’s low gross margins are well
below pure-play SaaS or other software companies.
Increased macro headwinds regarding customer demand sees us reduce our revenue and EBITDA estimates. This
takes our target down by -9% from $4.44 to $4.03. We are now valuing Appen on an FY23e EV/Sales multiple of
8.5x which is -24% below the median ASX comparable which is trading at 11.1x. We see this discount to the local
peers as suitable given that although it is profitable it is going through a period where revenue and earnings are
expected to go backwards.
Definitions at wilsonsadvisory.com.au/disclosures.
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