2020-2022

Calculating the sample size for

estimating a population proportion
HME 712

2020-2022
Prepared and presented by:
BV Girdler-Brown
©University of Pretoria Faculty of Health Sciences, 2020. All rights reserved

Introduction
We are still with descriptive studies; estimating proportions now; no hypothesis testing

We will follow the same process as we did for the previous slide show on
estimating sample size for the mean

WARNING: Time and again students confuse the two approaches and
formulae (means vs. proportions)

Sample size estimation for proportions uses different formula and

information than for the mean.

HME 712 Week 5: 2020-2022

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Sample size: estimation of population proportions

We use a sample to estimate the population parameters. We need a precise estimate

A precise estimate: The sample proportion = 0.7; the 95% CI is 0.6 to 0.8

A less precise estimate: The sample proportion = 0.7; the 95% CI is 0.5 to 0.9

We will use p-hat ( ) to avoid confusion with the “p” of p-values

The CI = +/- t*SD/√n Precision depends on sample size (& vice versa).

How large must my sample be?

HME 712 Week 5: 2020-2022

Sample size for proportions: the formula

Give me p-hat and the precision you desire otherwise I cannot say what sample size is

0.7 - Precision 0.7 +

t*sdprop Sample proportion = 0.7 t*sdprop

95% CI for the population proportion

Since we do not know t (because we do not know n) we could just use 1.96.
But 2 would be safer since we do not expect infinitely large samples.

We therefore have a formula: Precision = t*sdprop ; for proportions, sd =

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Sample size for proportions: the calculation

Give me the SD and the precision you desire and now I can estimate sample size

Precision = 2*sdprop (Remember we are going to use “2” instead of either “t” or “1.96”)
If we want precision of +/- 0.1 and if we know from a pilot study that p-hat = 0.3 then
Precision = 2*SQRT of ((0.3*(1-0.3)/√n); as required precision is 0.1, this means that:

0.1 = 2* 0.3 ∗ 0.7⁄𝑛

Square both sides to remove √: 0.12 = 22*(0.3*0.7)/n
0.01 = 4*0.21/n
n = 4*0.21/0.01
= 0.84/0.01
= 84

HME 712 Week 5: 2020-2022

However we are not finished yet

What if only 85% of the sample “responds”?

We had a sample size of 84 form the calculations on the previous slide.

The response rate was only 85% (0.85); so we will fail to achieve desired precision

We anticipate this by dividing 84 by 0.85:

n’ = n/response rate
n’ = 84/0.85
n’ = 98.82
ALWAYS ROUND UP:
We must therefore go for 99 in the sample

HME 712 Week 5: 2020-2022

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A simplified formula if p-hat assumed to be 0.5

This is the default value for p-hat as we normally do not know the p-hat value

The complicated formula on the previous slides can be simplified to the following form if p-hat
is assumed to be 0.5 (the safe default value):

n = 1/Precision2
If the required precision is then 0.05, since 0.052 = 0.0025 ….

N = 1/0.0025 = 400
Then correct for response rate and round up

HME 712 Week 5: 2020-2022

Summary
Follow these steps

1. What is the value of p-hat? Get this from literature or from a pilot study
2. By default, if p-hat is not known (as is the case usually) we use p-hat = 0.5
The reason is that 0.5*0.5 is > any other value e.g. 0.4*0.6; 0.3*0.7 etc..
So we will be “safe” using 0.5 as a default
3. What is required precision (i.e. +/-??)
4. Work out the value of n
5. Work out the value of n’ (n/expected response rate)
6. Round the final value UP (ALWAYS UP, NEVER DOWN)

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Some “Rules of thumb” for proportions

NB These ONLY apply for sample size estimations for proportions

DO NOT USE THESE “RULES” FOR ESTIMATING N FOR MEANS

USE THEM ONLY FOR PROPORTIONS WHERE P-HAT IS UNKNOWN

Assume p-hat = 0.5, then, with simple random sampling:

These estimates are unadjusted for Required precision: +/- Sample size
response rate: be sure to modify
for this. e.g. if response rate is 0.1 (+/- 10%) 100
80%, for precision of +/- 10%,
n’ = 100/0.8 = 125 0.05 (+/- 5%) 400
0.025 (+/- 2.5%) 1600

HME 712 Week 5: 2020-2022

Thank You

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