5th International Conference on Advances in Civil Engineering (ICACE-2020)

21-23 December 2020

CUET, Chattogram, Bangladesh
www.cuet.ac.bd/icace

MODE CHOICE BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS IN N1 HIGHWAY: A CASE STUDY

FROM CUMILLA TO DHAKA

S.I. Feroz1*, F.H Chowdhury2, N.A. Alam2, Y.R. Momo2, M.M. Rahman3
1Lecturer, Department of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh Army International University of Science and Technology

(BAIUST), Bangladesh, email: shafishahrul@gmail.com

2Department of Civil Engineering, BAIUST, Bangladesh
3Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Bangladesh,

email: mizanur@ce.buet.ac.bd
*Corresponding Author

Abstract

In Bangladesh N1 highway is the most important highway [1] and the most vulnerable part of this highway is
from Cumilla to Dhaka. However, no study has been conducted to know the mode choice behavior of the road
users in this route which is an important step in transportation planning. A questionnaire survey was conducted
among the 400 commuters of this route in three specific locations to know the preferable mode choice of road
users. From the field survey it was found that there were mainly 7 types of vehicles used by the road users.
Those types of vehicles were AC bus, non AC bus, local bus, micro bus, private car, rent a car and motor cycle.
Most of the road users (50.7%) prefer AC bus whereas micro bus (1.5%) is the less preferred mode. Most of the
vulnerable road users like female road users (70.23 %) and old aged road users (56%) use AC Bus. To know the
actual factors of choosing and predicting mode choice a multinomial logistics regression analysis is performed.
To delineate the model four socio-economic factors like commuter’s gender, age, income, occupation and three
travel related factors like duration of travel time, waiting time for getting the desired vehicle and total cost for
the trip is considered. From the model it is found that out of seven factors five factors (i.e. Commuter’s gender,
income, travel cost, waiting time, and travel time) played a significant role in selecting preferable mode. It is
also found that data was 85% classified that means this model can predict 85% mode choice accurately.

Keywords:

Mode choice behavior; N1 Highway; Multinomial logistic Regression model; Road users

1. Introduction

One of the most important activities to promote mobility is urban transportation planning [2] which is an
inevitable part of national growth process. Mode choice analysis is one of the most important and challenging
components of the transportation planning because it’s a part of conventional four-step travel demand modelling
process. Main transportation artery of Bangladesh is N1 highway which is 250 km in length [1] but our study
area is from Cumilla to Dhaka (97 km). 16.5 km accident-prone length with 38 accidents spots [3] N1 highway
became the most critical highway of Bangladesh. So exploring the mode choice behavior in this route (only
Cumilla to Dhaka) is very important to control the accidents and further planning. Very few studies conducted
on mode choice behavior in Bangladesh but only in Dhaka city [4-5] and some studies conducted on comparison
of accident data analysis in different national highways [6]. But no study is found on mode choice behavior
analysis on N1 highway. To know the attributes of travel that influence individual choices of mode in N1
highway it is important to develop and use models [7]. Multinomial Logistics Regression Model is widely used
to analyse the mood choice behavior since the formula for the choice probabilities take a closed form and easy
to illustrate [8].

In this study our aim is to find out commuters preference and use of various existing modes in Cumilla to Dhaka
route. For that a questionnaire survey is conducted in three different location of this route. After that we focused
on the factors that are responsible for the current mode choice. The choice of travel mode is affected by a great
many factors which factors are classified in many ways by Olsson [9]. Like hard (traveling time, waiting time
and ticket price and soft (comfort, service and information) factors, Internal (attitudes, socio-economic and
demographic factors, habits) and external (traveling time and the cost of the journey) factors etc. To analyse the
factors and predict mode choice behavior a multinomial logistics regression model is developed. To establish
the model we considered seven factors. There are four categorical socio-economic variables (commuters’ age,
income, gender and occupation) and three travel related continuous variables (Travel time, travel cost and
waiting time).

1
 5th International Conference on Advances in Civil Engineering (ICACE-2020)
21-23 December 2020
CUET, Chattogram, Bangladesh
www.cuet.ac.bd/icace

2. Materials and Methods

a. Selection of Study Area

Here data collection is done for mode choice behavior analysis in Cumilla to Dhaka route which is a part of N1
highway. Data collection is done in three different locations (i.e. Shashongacha Bus Terminal, Jangalia Bus
Terminal, and Cumilla Cantonment Bus Stop) of this route

b. Questionnaire Survey

Questionnaire survey (400 respondents) is conducted at the study areas to know the socio economic
characteristics like commuters age, occupation, income, educational status, occupation, travel related
information like purpose of the trip, frequency of the trip, travel cost, waiting time, travel time, condition of the
road, main obstacles of the journey, need of any alternative mood, private vehicle ownership etc.

c. Multinomial Logistic Regression Model

To know the mode choice behavior of the road users and predict the factors behind this preference a
multinomial logistics regression model is established. .Logistic probability unit or the logit model [8] which was
first introduced in the context of binary choice based on the logistic distribution, its generalization to more than
two alternatives are referred to as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. With multiple explicative variables the
logistic regression can be extending to models.
LogitP(Y = 1) =  + 1 x1 +  2 x 2 + ... +  k x k (1)
Here k denotes the number of independent factors for a binary response Y and x1 , x 2 ,......x k are the explanatory
variables. We can use alternative formula which directly specifying  (x ) , is:
exp( +  1 x1 +  2 x 2 + ... +  k x k )
 (x ) = (2) .
1 + exp( +  1 x1 +  2 x 2 + ... +  k x k )
To establish the logits in the multinomial case, one of the categories must be considered the base level and all
the logits are constructed relative to it. If we have n independent observations with p explanatory variables,
and the qualitative response variable has k categories, any category can be taken as the base level, so we will
take category k as the base level. Any category may be labelled k since there is no ordering. Let  ( j ) denote the
multinomial probability of an observation falling in the j(th) category, to find the relationship between this
probability and the p explanatory variables, x1 , x2 ,......x p the multiple logistic regression model then is:
  j ( xi ) 
log   = ( 0i +  1 j x1i +  2 j x 2i + ... pj x pi ) (3)
  k ( xi ) 
Where j = 1,2,...(k − 1) and i = 1,2,...n . As all the  ' s add to unity, this reduces to:
exp ( 0i +  1 j x1i +  2 j x 2i + ... pj x pi )
log j (x i ) = k =1
(4)
1 +  exp ( 0i +  1 j x1i +  2 j x 2i + ... pj x pi )
j =1

Eq. (1), (2), (3) and (4) are taken from El-Habil [10]. For j = 1,2,...(k − 1) . The model parameters are
calculated by the method of ML. To do this fitting usually statistical software is used [11]. When an independent
variable is continuous, such statistics are still valid for comparing models differing by relatively few terms [12].

3. Results and Discussions

a. Findings from the Field Survey

70.23%
80.00% Male Female
60.00% 35.14% 26.13% 12.90%
40.00% 16.22%
10.87% 2.70%5.08% 6.75%
20.00% 10.67% 0.56% 2.25% 0.56% 0%
0.00%
AC Bus Non AC Local Bus Micro Bus Private Car Rent a Car Motor Cycle
Bus

Fig. 1 Comparison of Mode choice between Male and Female Road Users.

2
 5th International Conference on Advances in Civil Engineering (ICACE-2020)
21-23 December 2020
CUET, Chattogram, Bangladesh
www.cuet.ac.bd/icace

[Fig. 1] illustrates the comparison of mode choice preferred by the male and female road users where AC bus is
the most preferable mode and micro bus (local) is the least preferable mood in both cases. Notable portion of
male users use non AC bus (26.13%) whereas very few local and micro bus female user with no motor cycle
female road user. For a journey with family and tour purpose people use private car or rent a car.
80.00% Bus(AC) Bus (Non-AC) Local Bus Micro Bus Private Car Rent a Car Motorcycle
64.29%
60.00%

64.03% 40.98% 39.53%

37.50%
40.00% 32.79% 32.73% 32.56%
25.00% 27.27%
15.63% 20.00%
20.00% 15.11% 14.75% 15.71% 11.43%
12.50%
10.07% 9.38% 9.09% 9.30% 11.63%
2.88% 1.64% 3.73% 5.46%
4.46% 2.86% 1.43% 4.65% 2.33%
1.44%
0.00%
<5000 5001-10000 10001-20000 20001-30000 30001-50000 >50000
Fig. 2 Comparison of Mode Choice between Different Income Groups
[Fig. 2] shows that people with low income (<10000 BDT) are mostly students, housewives and retired persons
who largely depends on others income. They are the vulnerable road users and mostly use AC bus. On the
contrary people with medium range income (10000-30000 BDT) prefer Non-Ac bus. People with higher income
(>30000 BDT) mainly use AC Bus.
100.00% Bus(AC) Bus (Non-AC) Local Bus Micro Bus Private Car Rent a Car Motorcycle

61.54% 50.64% 56.00%

50.00%
50.00% 35.23%
23.08% 21.59% 22.73% 20.00%
14.29% 14.29% 17.09% 5.98%
7.14% 12.82%8.97% 6.82% 10.23%
1.14% 4.00%
2.56%
0.00%
<18 18-25 25-40 40-60 >60
Fig. 3 Comparison of Mode Choice between Different Age Groups
From [Fig. 3] it can be seen that people with all ages mostly use AC bus. Old people with age greater than 60
find it comfortable to use AC bus. Respondents with middle age (25-40years) use non ac bus. Some middle age
local businessman and students use local bus. Private car users are mainly ages greater than 40 years.
Bus(AC) Bus(Non-AC) Local Bus Micro Bus Private Car Rent a Car Mtorcycle
3.05% 1.79% 7.09% 1.64%
100% 2.29% 8.93% 3.94% 8% 8.20%
7.63% 0.79%
1.53% 8.66% 20%
8.40% 18.03%
80% 28.57% 14.96% 4%
22.90% 4% 11.48%
3.57%
60% 14.29% 21.31%
40% 25.00% 64.57% 64%
54.20%
39.34%
20%
17.86%
0%
Service Holder Business Man Student Reirred Person others
Fig. 4 Comparison of Mode Choice between Different Occupations
From [Fig.4] we found that respondents who are service holder usually choose AC bus. Most of the local
business man is using non AC Bus. Students mostly prefer AC Bus because of comfort. Some students have
their own motor cycle. Retired person mostly prefers comfortable service like AC Bus, micro bus, private car
and rent a car. Others are mostly freelancers and housewives. They mostly use buses.
<250tk 250-350tk >350tk <2hr 2hr-3hr >3hr <15min 15min-30min >30min

1% 19% 6%
17% 32%
34%

60%
51% 80%
Travel Cost Travel Time Waiting Time
Fig. 5 Travel Cost, Travel Time and Waiting Time

3
 5th International Conference on Advances in Civil Engineering (ICACE-2020)
21-23 December 2020
CUET, Chattogram, Bangladesh
www.cuet.ac.bd/icace

[Fig.5] shows the travel cost, travel time and waiting time for the desired vehicle. Cost of local bus is about 150
– 200 BDT whereas cost of non AC bus is about 200 – 250 BDT. For using AC bus people have to pay 250 –
350 BDT. For using private car, rent a car, micro bus and motor bike 17% respondent has to pay cost fluctuating
from 1000 to 5000 BDT. Sometime congestion in three major bridges in this route (Magna Bridge, Gomti
Bridge and Kachpur Bridge) causes long trip length. Average trip length in this route without any congestion is
2-3hours. Rent a car, motor cycle and privet car user’s trip length is generally less than average time. Most of
the respondents who use bus have to wait for the desired vehicle. In this rout average waiting time is 15minutes
to 30 minutes for passengers. 60% respondents have to wait 15min to 30 min for the desired vehicle.
100% Bus(Ac) Bus (Non-AC) Local Bus Micro Bus Privet Car Rent a Car Motorcycle
50% 62% 60%
43% 49%
39% 36% 40% 35%
31% 26% 29%
16% 22% 22% 20% 20%
12% 13% 15%8% 12% 10% 12% 8% 10%
0%
0%
Safe Travel Comfort Less Fare Less Time
Fig. 6 Reason behind choosing different modes
The respondents were asked to mention the reasons they feel important for choosing the mode they were using
for that particular trip. A significant difference is observed among different mode users while mentioning the
reason in [Fig.6]. For example, about 39% and 43% respondents use AC Bus for safe Travel and comfort
respectively. For Non-AC Bus users less fare (26%) and less time (40%) is mostly chosen reason. On the
contrary Local bus users chose less Fare (62%) for their reason to select this mode. For Micro bus user most
important reason is less fare (36%) and less Time (29%). Private car owners choose safe travel (31%) and
comfort (49%) as their main reason of choosing. Rent a car users also choose comfort (50%) and less time
(35%) as their reason. And most of the Motorcycle user mostly chose less time (60%).
50.00% 42.17% Time Consuming Dangerous Road
40.00% Cost of the Trip All of them
28.42%
30.00% 19.73% 15%
20.00% 9.68% 38%
10.00%
0.00% 32%
Completely Partially Rarely Not usable 15%
usable usable usable and risky

Condition of the Road Main Obstacle in the trip

Fig. 7 Condition of the Road and Main Obstacle in the trip
The respondents were asked to mention the condition of the road (N1 highway). From [Fig.7] about 42.17%
respondent think road is completely usable. One the contrary most of the privet car owner, motorcycle user find
the road rarely useable or not useable and risky. Their main problem is reckless driving and violation of traffic
law by bus and truck drivers. Some of the respondents think the road is partially useable. Their main problem is
traffic jam. From [Fig.7] most of the respondents think that the trip is time consuming (38%) and costly (32%)
respectively. Overtaking mentality of the driver, teenager driver, old public bus, too much passengers in the bus
are the main reasons make the road risky.

b. Establishment of Multinomial Logistics Regression Model

Here 7 explanatory variables are considered which might had an influence on mode choice behaviour of N1
highway road users. SPSS software version 23 is used to find the effects of these variables on mode choice and
establish a MLR model to predict the mode choice of commuters. Table 1 shows the details of the explanatory
variables.
Table 1: Case Processing Summary
Response Variable (With Dummy Code) Frequency N Marginal Percentage Cumulative Percentage
Mode choice Ac bus (1) 203 50.7% 50.7%
Non Ac Bus (2) 77 19.3% 70%
local bus (3) 37 9.3% 79.3%
micro bus (4) 6 1.5% 80.8%
private car (5) 47 11.8% 92.6%
rent a car (6) 15 3.8% 96.4%

4
 5th International Conference on Advances in Civil Engineering (ICACE-2020)
21-23 December 2020
CUET, Chattogram, Bangladesh
www.cuet.ac.bd/icace

motor cycle (7) 15 3.8% 100%

Categorical Variables (With Dummy Code)
Gender Male (1) 222 55.5% 55.5%
Female (2) 178 44.5% 100%
Occupation service holder (1) 131 32.8% 32.8%
Student (2) 127 31.8% 64.6%
Business (3) 56 14.0% 78.6%
retired person (4) 25 6.3% 84.9%
Others-5 61 15.3% 100%
Age <18 (1) 14 3.5% 3.5%
18-25 (2) 117 29.3% 32.8%
25-40 (3) 156 39.0% 71.8%
40-60 (4) 88 22.0% 93.8%
>60 (5) 25 6.3% 100%
Income <5000 BDT (1) 139 34.8% 34.8%
5000-10000BDT (2) 32 8.0% 42.8%
10000-20000 BDT (3) 61 15.3% 58.1%
20000-30000 BDT (4) 55 13.8% 71.9%
30000-50000 BDT (5) 70 17.5% 89.4%
>50000 BDT (6) 43 10.8% 100%
Continuous Variables
Travel Cost (BDT) 400 100% 100%
Travel Time (Hour) 400 100% 100%
Waiting Time (minute) 400 100% 100%
Valid 400 100.0%
Missing 0
Total 400
Subpopulation 316a
a. The dependent variable has only one value observed in 308 (97.5%) subpopulations.
Footnote in Table 1 indicates that the number of combinations in the data collected and that is 316 overall
whereas 308 combinations have the same response variable.

Table 2: Model Fitting Information

Model Fitting Criteria Likelihood Ratio Tests
Model AIC BIC -2 Log Likelihood Chi-Square df Sig.
Intercept Only 1153.246 1177.195 1141.246
Final 503.188 742.676 383.188 758.058 54 .000
We can see from the table 2. "Sig." column that p = .000 <.05, which means that there is a significance relation
between dependent variable and explanatory variables. So we can summarize that our data is fit for final model
and our dependent variable mode choice is dependent on factors we considered.

Table 3: Pseudo R-Square

Cox and Snell .850
Nagelkerke .900
McFadden .657
Pseudo R- Square values represent the variation of dependent value with independent variable. Generally we go
with Negelkerke value which should be near 1 for a perfect variation. From Table 3 we can see that the value is
0.90. That means our data set has a good variation between dependent and independent variables.

Table 4: Likelihood Ratio Tests

Model Fitting Criteria Likelihood Ratio Tests
-2Log
AIC of Reduced BIC of Reduced Likelihood of
Effect Model Model Reduced Model Chi-Square df Sig.
Intercept 503.188 742.676 383.188a .000 0 .
Gender 552.382 767.921 444.382 61.194 6 .000
Income 519.185 638.929 459.185 75.997 30 .000
Waiting_Time_min 561.227 776.766 453.227 70.039 6 .000
Travel_Time_hr 515.422 730.961 407.422 24.234 6 .000

5
 5th International Conference on Advances in Civil Engineering (ICACE-2020)
21-23 December 2020
CUET, Chattogram, Bangladesh
www.cuet.ac.bd/icace

Cost_BDT 874.384 1089.923 766.384 383.196 6 .000

The chi-square statistic is the difference in -2 log-likelihoods between the final model and a reduced model. The
reduced model is formed by omitting an effect from the final model. The null hypothesis is that all parameters of
that effect are 0.
a. This reduced model is equivalent to the final model because omitting the effect does not increase the degrees
of freedom.
Table 4 illustrates which of the explanatory variables are statistically significant. From Table 4 we can see that
gender, income, waiting time, travel time and travel cost is statistically significant which means there is a direct
relation between mode choices with these variables.

Table 5: Parameter Estimates (Only Statistically Significant Variables)

Mode
Choicea Variables Denotation B Std. Error p-value Odds ratio

Non AC Bus Intercept 5.114 1.743 .003

Travel Cost x1 -.032 .005 .000 .968
Waiting Time (min) x2 -.083 .033 .012 .921
Gender (relative to female)
Male x3 1.692 .418 .000 5.432
Income (relative to
> 50k BDT)
10k - 20k BDT x4 1.337 .828 .100 3.807
20k - 30k BDT x5 2.428 .891 .006 11.331
Local Bus Travel Cost x1 -.061 .009 .000 .941
Waiting Time (min) x2 .126 .048 .008 1.134
Gender (relative to female)
Male x3 4.075 1.546 .008 58.827
Income (relative to income
> 50k BDT)
5k – 10k BDT x6 4.485 1.589 .005 88.674
20k – 30k BDT x5 2.821 1.305 .031 16.792
Micro Bus Travel Cost x1 .12 .003 .000 1.12
(Local) Travel Time (hr.) x7 -4.970 1.594 .002 .007
Gender (relative to female)
Male x3 6.780 2.195 .002 879.848
Private Car Travel Cost x1 .011 .003 .000 1.011
Waiting Time (min) x2 -.256 .102 .012 .774
Gender (relative to female)
Male x3 3.311 1.437 .021 27.401
Income (relative to
income >50k BDT)
10k - 20k BDT x4 -4.699 1.880 .012 .009
Rent a Car Intercept -34.480 13.832 .013
Waiting Time (min) x2 .454 .245 .063 1.575
Travel Cost x1 .016 .003 .000 1.016
Motor Cycle Travel Time (hr.) x7 -4.291 1.673 .010 .014
Waiting Time (min) x2 -.685 .242 .005 .504
a. The reference category is: AC Bus.

6
 5th International Conference on Advances in Civil Engineering (ICACE-2020)
21-23 December 2020
CUET, Chattogram, Bangladesh
www.cuet.ac.bd/icace

Table 6 presents the parameter estimates which are also called the coefficients of the model (B). As there were
seven categories of the dependent variable so there are six sets of logistic regression coefficients (sometimes
called six logits). Here only statistically significant values (p ≤ 0.05 or marginally significant p ≤ 0.1) are
considered. If any variables had some significant effect on mode choice with low statistical significance (i.e. p ≤
0.1) might also be retained [13]. Any category of the response variable can be chosen as reference category or
baseline with same likelihood and fitted values but with different interpretation [14]. In our model response
variable with highest frequency AC bus is considered as reference category. Here B is the expected amount of
change in the logit for each one unit change in the significant predictor. If B is closer to zero, the less influence
the predictor has in predicting the logit. Odd ratio>1 will increase the logit whereas Odd ratio<1 will decrease
the logit. Those predictors which do not have an effect on the logit will display an odd ratio of 1.0

Table 6: Logit Equations

Mode Choice Equations
Non AC Bus y1 = 5.114 − .032 x1 − .083 x2 + 1.692 x3 + 1.337 x4 + 2.428 x5 (5)
Local Bus y 2 = −.061x1 + .126 x2 + 4.075 x3 + 2.821x5 + 4.485 x6 (6)
Micro Bus y3 = .12 x1 + 6.780 x3 − 4.970 x7 (7 )
Private Car y 4 = .011x1 − .256 x2 + 3.331x3 − 4.699 x4 (8)
Rent a Car y5 = −34.480 + .016 x1 + .454 x2 (9)
Motor Cycle y 6 = −.685 x2 − .4.291x7 (10)

Eq. (5) represents the logit for non AC bus. The likelihood of choosing non AC bus over AC bus is decreasing if
the cost and waiting time is increasing. Males are 5.432 times more likely to choose non ac bus over ac bus
with respect to female. People with middle income range (10k-30k BDT) are more likely to choose non ac bus
over ac bus with respect to people with higher income (> 50k BDT). Eq. (6) is the logit for local bus which
indicates if cost is decreasing people will choose local bus rather than AC bus and with the increase of waiting
time; people will still choose local bus over AC bus due to less fare. Males and middle range income groups are
more likely to choose local bus rather than AC bus. In case of micro bus Eq. (7) is the logit. If the cost of using
micro bus is increasing, people will still use micro bus. From our field survey we found that female road users
are less likely to use micro bus as their preferable mood which is reflected in the equation. When the travel time
is increasing people are less likely to choose micro bus than AC bus. From Eq. (8), if the cost is increasing
people will still use it rather than AC bus due to comfort and safety. Male road users choose private car more
than female road users. Odd ratio is negative for waiting time and income. Eq. (9) is for rent a car where with
the increase of travel time and cost, likelihood of using rent a car over ac bus will increase. Eq. (10) is for motor
cycle which indicates that the likelihood of choosing motor cycle over ac bus is decreasing if the waiting time
and travel time is increasing.

Table 7: Classification
Predicted
Percent
Observed Ac bus Non Ac Bus local bus micro bus private car rent a car motor cycle Correct
Ac bus 191 7 2 0 0 0 3 94.1%
Non Ac Bus 22 52 3 0 0 0 0 67.5%
local bus 0 7 28 0 0 0 2 75.7%
micro bus 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 16.7%
private car 2 0 0 1 42 1 1 89.4%
rent a car 0 0 0 0 1 14 0 93.3%
motor cycle 2 0 0 0 1 0 12 80.0%
Overall
54.5% 16.8% 8.8% 0.5% 11.3% 3.8% 4.5% 85.0%
Percentage
Table 7 explains how well our final model can classify cases. The proportional by chance accuracy rate can be
computed by squaring and summing the proportion of cases for each response variables (Shown in Table 1)
multiple by 25% improvement [11]. So the proportional by chance accuracy criteria are: (0.5072 + 0.1932 +
0.0932 + 0.0152 + 0.1182 + 0.0382 + 0.0382 = 0.319984) * 1.25 = 40 %. This proportion will be compared with
the overall percentage of the final model shown in Table 6. The classification overall percentage computed by
model was 85% which is greater than the proportional by chance accuracy criterion of 40%.So the overall
prediction is satisfactory

7
 5th International Conference on Advances in Civil Engineering (ICACE-2020)
21-23 December 2020
CUET, Chattogram, Bangladesh
www.cuet.ac.bd/icace

The study is conducted on Cumilla to Dhaka route which is only a portion of N1 highway. A research should be
conducted in the entire N1 highway to understand the overall scenario. To increase the effectiveness of the
model more data with more variables (road characteristics, frequency of the trip) are recommended. Vehicle
ownership factor can be added to find more accurate outcomes. In that case nested logit model is suggested.

4. Conclusion

a. In this study, with the help of a questionnaire survey we identified the mode that is used by the road
users and initial factors that might affect the mode choice preference of the road users in N1 highway.
AC bus found to be the most preferable mood with 50.7% user because of safe travel (39%) and
comfort (43%). Non- AC bus user chose mostly less fare and less time. Less fare also the most
preferred reason among local bus users. Microbus, private car and rent a car user mostly chose comfort
and less time and motorcycle user preferred less time for their current mode choice. Responders those
who chose rent a car or privet car generally travelled with their family. Motorcycle is mainly popular
with young generation.
b. From this study we also found the average time of the trip is 2-3hr. In some cases trip length changed
because of congestion. Average cost of the trip is between 250-350 BDT with average waiting time of
15-30 min.
c. We considered seven socio economic and travel related factors from the primary survey. Multinomial
logistic regression model was applied to the disaggregate set of primary preference data to find the
factors contributed significantly to the mode choice behavior of the road users in N1 highway.
Commuter’s gender, income, travel cost, travel length and waiting time found to be the critical factors.
d. As most of the responders are middle (18-40) aged (around 68.3%) and students (31.8%). So the
variation of age is less so age and occupation is not significant here.
e. As we had seven categories of mood we considered AC bus as our reference category and constructed
six logits to find the likelihood of choosing any mood with respect to AC bus. From the logits we can
calculate the probability of choosing any mood for any individual case.
f. Our model is 85% classified whereas it was supposed to predict only 40% from the initial field survey.

References

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N1_(Bangladesh)
Accessed 28 Sept 2020.
[2] Hasan S (2007) Development of A Travel Demand Model for Dhaka City. M.Sc. Thesis, Department of
Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka.
[3] A PPRC report (2014) “Road Safety in Bangladesh Ground Realities and Action Imperatives”
[4] Enam A (2011) Methodological Issues in Developing Mode choice models for Dhaka city. M.Sc. Thesis,
Department of Civil Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka.
[5] Hossain M (2004) Shaping up of urban transport system of a developing metropolis in absence of proper
management setup: the case of Dhaka, Journal of Civil Engineering (IEB), 32(1)
[6] Rahman M M , Ahsan M S , Hadiuzzaman M (2012) Comparative Accident Study on some selected
National Highways of Bangladesh, International Journal of Civil Engineering (IJCE) ISSN 2278-9987
Vol.1, Issue 2 Nov 2012 7-14 © IASET
[7] Ortúzar J D and Willumsen L G (2001), Modelling Transport, 3rd ed., John Wiley& Sons Ltd., New
York.
[8] Train K E (2003) Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation, Cambridge University Press.
[9] Olsson A L (2003), Factors that influence choice of travel mode in major urban areas: The attractiveness
of Park & Ride, Division of Transportation and Logistics, Department of Infrastructure, Royal Institute of
Technology, Sweden. ISBN 91-7323-048-0.
[10] El-Habil A M (2012) An Application on Multinomial Logistics Regression Model, Pakistan Journal of
Statistics and Operation Research Vol. VIII, No.2, pp 271-291. DOI:10.18187pjsor.v8i2.234
[11] Chatterjee S, and Hadi A (2006). Regression Analysis by Example. John Wiley & Sons Ltd., New York.
[12] Agresti A (2002). Categorical Data Analysis. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
[13] Kockelman K, Kweon Y (2002), Driver injury severity: an application of Ordered Probit model. Accid.
Anal. Prev. 34(3),313-321
[14] Schafer J L (2006) Multinomial logistic regression models. STAT 544- Lecture 19.