DEV615 Urban Development

Photo: Mariusz Kluzniak

Drivers of urbanisation
 DEV615 Urban Development

The degree of urbanisation was designed to create a simple and neutral method that could be applied
in every country in the world. It relies primarily on population size and density thresholds applied to a
population grid with cells of 1 by 1 km. Roughly speaking:

Cities consist of contiguous grid cells that have a

density of at least 1,500 inhabitants per sq. km or are
at least 50% built up. They must have a population of
at least 50,000.
Towns and semi-dense areas consist of contiguous
grid cells with a density of at least 300 inhabitants per
sq. km and are at least 3% built up. They must have a
total population of at least 5,000.
Rural areas are cells that do not belong to a city or a
town and semi-dense area. Most of these have a
density below 300 inhabitants per sq. km.
(Source: OECD, 2020)

The Degree of Urbanisation

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Urban
Economy
sprawl

Migration

Demography

Drivers of Urbanisation
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(Source: UN Habitat, 2016)

Women will be the majority of urban citizens in the

coming dacaedaes. This is partly due to increasing levels of female
rural-urban migration, and partly a result of demographic ageing.
(Source: Chant & McIlwaine, 2016)

Demographic Changes: Global Scenario

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Persistent issues and

emerging challenges due
to increase urban
population

(Source: UN Habitat, 2016)

Urban Demographic Changes: A Development Issue

 DEV615 Urban Development

Urban population growth rates have

been much faster in some regions than
others The highest growth rate between
1995 and 2015 was clearly in the least
developed parts of the world.

(Source: UN Habitat, 2016)

Demographic Changes: Uneven pattern of growth

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A second major theme of the

demographic story must be the
emergence of many large and
megacities, particularly in the low-
and middle-income regions of the
world.

In 2015, there were 44 large

cities, and 29 megacities.
(Source: UN Habitat, 2016)

Demographic Changes: Rise of Megacities

 DEV615 Urban Development

§ Although large and very large cities are in some ways the leading
edge of urbanization, because of their influence and economic
importance, they are not the fastest growing, nor do they
represent the majority of the urban population.

§ The fastest growing urban centres are the small and

medium cities with less than one million inhabitants, which
account for 59 per cent of the world’s urban population.

§ Despite the demographic importance and potential role of such

cities, urban planning efforts in developing countries have
focused disproportionately on the problems of large
metropolitan areas, thereby contributing to urban primacy.

(Source: UN Habitat, 2016)

Demographic Changes: Disproportionate development

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§ As countries urbanize, they gain in wealth; and as such,

work and educational opportunities for women tend to
increase, leading to later marriages, and fewer
children. The positive urban dynamics behind the
demographic transition to smaller families is complex.

§ A rapidly ageing population places increased

demand on healthcare, recreation, transportation
and other facilities for the elderly.

§ It also has implications for old-aged social

protection and pension schemes in many
countries.

(Source: UN Habitat, 2016)

Demographic Changes: Social concerns

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§ There are 1.19 billion people aged 15 to 24 worldwide with 88 per cent in developing
countries in 2015. Many developing countries with a high youth bulge face the
challenge of youth unemployment, which is two to three times higher that adult
unemployment.

§ Youth bulge may portend a blessing or a curse. It can represent a potential opportunity to
spur social and economic development if countries harness the power of age-structure
transformation. The youth bulge can also increase the risk of domestic conflict— in a
context of poor governance, poor economic performance and high levels of inequalities.

§ A youthful population requires investment in education, training,

recreational and community facilities, as well as innovative ways of keeping the
youth fully occupied.

(Source: UN Habitat, 2016)

Demographic Changes: Social concerns

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Demographic Changes: A blessing or curse for Bangladesh?

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(Source: The World Bank

Migration
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§ Around 250 million migrants currently live outside

their countries of birth, making up approximately
3.5 percent of the world population.
§ Involuntary migration is a global issue, the upsurge
in forced migration across international borders is
an emerging issue which has implications for cities.

§ High unemployment especially among the youth,

inequality, poverty, lack of opportunities and a
sense of hopelessness drive migrants.

§ Globalization of information generally reinforces the

idea of a better life.

Migration: A resultant of pull-and push-factors

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§ Differences in quality of life between urban and rural residents

have been the subject of many economic studies.
§ On average, urban residents appear to enjoy a higher
quality of life than their counterparts in rural areas,
particularly in developing countries.
§ Economists have long argued that much higher per capita
incomes in cities reflect the production benefits from
agglomeration in rich countries.
§ Recent work has demonstrated this differential exists in
developing countries in terms of income and poverty rates
too.
§ Similarly, more diverse consumption opportunities in
cities that arise due to agglomeration economies may also
enhance the well-being of local residents
(Source: OECD, 2020)

The differences in quality of life

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We tend to forget what migrants bring to the table.

§ New enterprises develop with a knack for risk-taking.

§ Immigrants change the social and economic fabric
of the countries they live in.
§ They fill the gaps in the labour forces across
different skill levels and occupations.

§ The academic evidence repeatedly shows how the

migrants help the destination countries and the overall
effect can be positive within the right policy environment.

§ Whether the migrants are a gain or a burden

depends on the educational, employment and social
opportunities presented to them.

Contributions of Migration
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Internal Migration
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(Source: New Age, 2020)

Migrants: A gain or a burden for the urban areas?

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(Source: UN Habitat, 2016)

Economy
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Urbanisation as Transformative force

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The higher productivity of urban areas stems

from agglomeration economies,
which are the benefits firms and businesses
derive from locating near to their customers
and suppliers in order to reduce transport
and communication costs.

They also include proximity to a large

labour pool, competitors within the same
industry and firms in other industries.

(Source: UN Habitat, 2016)

Urbanisation as Transformative force

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§ The benefits of agglomeration can be

offset by rising congestion, pollution, pressure on
natural resources, higher labour and property costs,
greater policing costs occasioned higher levels of
crime and insecurity often in the form of negative
externalities or agglomeration dis- economies.

§ These inefficiencies grow with city size,

especially if urbanization is not properly managed,
and if cities are deprived of essential public
infrastructure.

§ The immediate effect of dysfunctional systems,

gridlock and physical deterioration may be to
deter private investment, reduce urban
productivity and hold back growth.
(Source: UN Habitat, 2016)

Cities as victims of their own success

 DEV615 Urban Development

§ Urbanization has helped millions escape poverty through higher

levels of productivity, employment opportunities; improved quality of life
via better education and health; large-scale public investment and access
to improved infrastructure and services.

§ Realizing the potential gains of urbanization will however depend on how

well urban growth and its evolving challenges are planned and
managed, and the extent to which the benefits accruing from
urbanization are equitably distributed.

§ Formulating the necessary policies including effective

governance, urban planning and finance is a vital
precondition for enhancing the transformative potentials of urbanization.

(Source: UN Habitat, 2016)

Poverty and urbanisation

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Rural areas benefit from urbanization through

§ increased demand for rural goods, which can have a significant
impact on rural poverty.
§ increased urban- rural remittances,
§ increased rural land/labour ratio, and
§ increased rural nonfarm employment.

Another facet of the growing interconnection between urban and rural

areas is the physical expansion of metropolitan regions,
which has seen cities extend to peri-urban and rural areas. These
transitional zones enhance linkages between urban and rural areas.

(Source: UN Habitat, 2016)

Urban-rural linkages
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Is urban prosperity of Bangladesh inclusive?

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Whereas new spatial configurations play key role in creating prosperity, there is an urgent demand for
more integrated planning, robust financial planning, service delivery and strategic policy decisions

Urban Sprawl
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§ With cities growing beyond their administrative and physical boundaries, conventional
governing structures and institutions become outdated. This trend has led
to expansion not just in terms of population settlement and spatial sprawl, but has altered the
social and economic spheres of influence of urban residents.

§ A city’s physical form, its built environment characteristics, the extent and pattern of open
spaces together with the relationship of its density to destinations and transportation
corridors, all interact with natural and other urban characteristics to constrain transport
options, energy use, drainage, and future patterns of growth.

§ However, while these engines of growth are transforming the global economy, they can also
lead to unbalanced growth in a country’s development. additionally, ineffective and
fragmented urban governance across these vast urban regions poses major challenges for the
post-2015 development era.
(Source: UN Habitat, 2016)

Urban Sprawl
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Some pertinent issues, which suggest the need for rethinking past
patterns of urbanization and addressing them urgently include:

§ competing jurisdictions between cities, towns and

surrounding peri-urban areas whereby authorities compete with
each other to attract suburban development;

§ the true costs to the economy and to society of

fragmented land use and car-dependent spatial development; and

§ how to come up with affordable alternatives to

accommodate the additional 2.5 billion people that would reside
in cities by 2050.

(Source: UN Habitat, 2016)

Transformative potentials of urban spaces

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§ In reality, it is especially the outer suburbs, edge cities and outer city nodes in larger city regions where
new economic growth and jobs are being created and where much of this new population will be
accommodated, if infill projects and planned extensions are not designed.

§ While densification strategies and more robust compact city planning in existing city spaces will help
absorb a portion of this growth, the key challenge facing planners is

§ how to accommodate new growth beyond the existing core and suburbs
§ how to increase ability of local governments to overcome fragmentation in local
political institutions, and
§ how to plan for a more coherent legislation and governance framework,
which addresses urban complexities spread over different administrative boundaries.

(Source: UN Habitat, 2016)

Urban development challenges

 DEV615 Urban Development

What are the drivers of urbanization of your

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