RESEARCH ANALYSIS

T ITTLE: How to Forecast: A Guide for Business

AUTHOR/S: James Morrell
L INK: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315188928
A BSTRACT: This title was first published in 2001. Forecasting is an essential
discipline in the planning and running of a business: not only for the business
plan and annual budget but for the appraisal of investment projects, the
commissioning of research as well as the appraisal of the competition and the
feasibility of making acquisitions. Managers are continually confronted with the
need to take decisions, and being able to construct a route map of the future is a
key way of determining a course of action. This book offers a practical guide to
forecasting the environment in which a firm operates. The author goes through
the key areas which can affect a business. He includes those which are out of the
firm's control such as fiscal and monetary policy, population levels and the labor
market; and those that are, such as costs, prices, profits and product
development.

DATA GATHERING P ROCEDURE: James Morrell gather his data from the past
records, history, books, and observations from the past businessmen.
Additionally, James also used his experienced and personal knowledge to write
the book.

R ESULTS: James wrote on his book how important the climate change and even
the temperature in transporting the goods. He used all the data he get even his
own experienced to create and explain to us that we may be able to forecast our
business to avoid losses.

C ONCLUSION: Overall, the book tells us the things that must be consider before
starting or while doing a business. To be able to forecast needs lots of research
and data but is very crucial in business. It also helps businessmen and women to
make decisions. Similarly, James also wrote things that need to be considered
while making a decision like the lifestyle, trends profit, costs and more. In
addition, the writer also put the situation of the businessmen during World War
2 for us wants to understand the effect it had on business. The writer suggest to
observe the interest rate and taxation to make sure it will not be too much or too
less. Forecasting is needed for businessmen and women because it makes you
see your past data to compare it to the present data and predict the future
development of your business.