Professional Documents
Culture Documents
47
3.1 Defining an Integrated System
Establishing a viable flood forecasting and composed of many links. Each link must be
warning system for communities at risk present and functional if benefits are to be
requires the combination of data, forecast achieved. Figure 12 shows a schematic
tools, and trained forecasters. A flood- representation of the system as links in a
forecast system must provide sufficient lead chain.
time for communities to respond.
Increasing lead time increases the potential The essential links or components of the
to lower the level of damages and loss of life. integrated flood forecasting, warning and
Forecasts must be sufficiently accurate to response system consist of a Data Source,
promote confidence so that communities will Communications, Forecasts, Decision
respond when warned. If forecasts are Support, Notification (often referred to as
inaccurate, then credibility of the dissemination), Coordination, and Actions
programme will be questioned and no (or responses). A flood forecast and warning
response actions will occur. programme should be designed to mitigate
floods, and, as such, it is an asset to overall
Flood-warning systems must be reliable and water management. To achieve this, it is
designed to operate during the most severe important that all of the components of the
floods. The greatest benefits for an effective system be functional. If any component is
flood-warning programme occur when dysfunctional, then this weak link could
flooding is severe, widespread, and/or break the chain, resulting in an ineffective
sudden, and when communities and warning and response process. For example,
organizations are prepared to mitigate if critical rainfall or streamflow data are
impacts. unavailable or if the data are not relayed to a
forecast centre for use in forecasting, then
The implementation of an end-to-end flood the critical lead time required to make
forecast, warning and response system decisions, coordinate activities, warn
consists of many components. These citizens, and take actions is not possible. If
components must be linked for successful a perfect flood forecast is generated but does
operation. The interaction of components of not reach the population at risk, then the
the integrated flood forecast system or warning system is useless. Equally, should
programme could be represented as a chain the population at risk receive the warning
Figure 12
Integrated flood forecasting, warning and response system within IWRM
Flood and Water Resources Management: a Critical Chain of Events and Actions
G IS T oo ls
M a th em a tic a l M ode ls
Sense Water Get Data Future Water Mgmt. Appropriate Tasks from Relocation
Availability where Water & Individuals Response Sand bagging
Needed Availability Flood Control & Groups Plans Other responses
Decisions Organisations
Civil society
48
Guidelines for Reducing Flood Losses
but not know what actions should be taken, help put a recent flood into context. Often,
then the system again would not have such records are of value in defining the
accomplished its purpose. flood history in a river basin, particularly
when combined with stream gauge records
In the overall design of the integrated that exist for contemporary periods. Other
system, there are many factors that should more recent historical information can be
be considered. The remainder of this drawn from newspapers, journals and oral
chapter reviews some of these factors. histories. Usually there is a perception level
associated with flooding at a given location;
Basin characteristics large events are noted, smaller events are
not.
The physical characteristics of the basin,
such as surface area, topography, geology, The flood history will identify the portions
and land surface cover, will help to of a basin subject to flooding, whether
determine the nature of potential flooding flooding is urban or rural or both, seasonal
and the basin's susceptibility to related characteristics of flooding, and the feasible
hazards such as landslides and mudflows. warning time. The type of flooding and
associated hazards may be significantly
The hydrological response of the basin can different on tributaries compared to the
be impacted upon by changes in land use main stem of the river. Knowledge of the
associated with urbanization, forestry, factors contributing to or causing the
agriculture, drainage, or channel flooding such as meteorological and
modifications. A record of such changes antecedent conditions should be established
over time is useful in establishing the for each flood event.
dynamic relationship between rainfall and
runoff. The following also contribute to an Lake flooding as well as flooding from
understanding of flood hazards: records of ocean surge and tsunamis may pose
climate norms and trends for parameters, problems quite different from river flooding.
such as precipitation and evapotranspiration; These guidelines are oriented to river
and information on the usual effects of flooding, but many principles contained
ENSO events and extreme events, from herein are also applicable to varying degrees
synoptic to mesoscale. to other water-related disasters.
49
warning needs. This can help to shape System identification
future approaches to flood plain
management and regulation, and can assist Depending on the nature of the basin and
in the design and establishment of response the type of event causing the flooding,
actions. potential warning times could vary from
hours to several days to weeks.
Economic factors Communities subject to flash flooding
require warnings of meteorological
A flood forecasting, warning and response conditions that, when combined with
system comprises an important element of antecedent basin conditions, could lead to
integrated water resources management. flooding. This represents a special case of
The benefits of river forecasts for power flood forecasting and warning. The
generation, navigation or irrigated challenge in such cases is rapid depiction of
agriculture make implementation of such a critical flood thresholds and their
system more cost effective and sustainable. subsequent communication and emergency
Even then, maintaining a system in a state of response. An analysis of historical rainfall
readiness between floods may be difficult. records, including storm transposition and
the resulting streamflow would help to
An examination of past damages and the identify areas of concern.
potential for future damages will help
determine priority areas for flood
forecasting, warning and response.
Rigorous analysis would call for statistical
analysis of flood peaks and the calculation of
the present value of costs and benefits of
flood forecasting and warning. In most
cases, however, the benefits of flood
forecasting, warning and response are
virtually self-evident. The real questions are
the affordability of various options and the
desire of society to invoke a more pro-active
stance to reducing flood losses. Photo: J. Laurie, Las Vegas Review Journal
Communities at risk
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Guidelines for Reducing Flood Losses
preparation; and forecast distribution. damages to be more accurately estimated
Different levels of automation may be for various levels of flooding.
required as the overall system develops and
expands, and as financial resources become A rigorous cost-benefit analysis would
available. Systems may vary from those require determining a flood frequency
using largely manual observations, graphs distribution so that the present value of
and tables to highly automated multi-model future benefits can be determined. In the
systems running on computer workstations. absence of sufficient data or analysis, a more
rudimentary presentation of costs and
Benefit-Cost analysis benefits may be sufficient to determine the
size of the investment that is justified for
An analysis of the cost of floods and the flood forecasting, warning and response.
potential benefits may help determine the
type of forecast and warning system and Evaluating existing capabilities
response mechanisms that would be most
cost effective. Costs resulting from flooding Most countries have basic networks of
can be estimated for various magnitudes of meteorological and hydrometric stations that
events for various centres. Damage statistics are necessary for flood forecasting and
from previous floods are also valuable in warning. It is likely that the operators of the
establishing the costs associated with such existing networks may be in many different
events. Judgement is needed to estimate the agencies. In many cases, the networks may
benefit of flood forecasting and warning in not have been designed to acquire data
reducing damages and loss of life. during extreme events, or they may not
Governments and financial institutions provide data in real-time or to common
require such information on costs and standards. Also, networks may not provide
benefits to help understand where data for key urban centres where forecasts
expenditures will reap the largest rewards. are required or for areas where the major
Studies and analyses have shown that inputs to the flooding are occurring.
damage reduction due to forecast Identifying the existing network, its
improvements can range from a few operators, and the existing approaches and
percentage points to as much as 35% of capabilities are necessary steps in the
average annual flood damages. evolution of a flood forecast system.
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Identification of key users and ties and interaction with these groups should
collaborators be considered to help establish overall flood
forecast needs and response measures. The
Establishment of a successful flood role of the media in informing the public
forecasting, warning and response system cannot be underestimated. It is critical that
depends on a thorough analysis of existing the media receive timely and authoritative
capabilities, identification of key users for forecasts and warnings. Media
the system, and a good understanding of the communications should encourage the
interagency arrangements needed in an appropriate public response and should not
effective system. Considering these factors lead to counterproductive speculation.
will lead to forecasts that meet user needs
and that are more likely to be acted upon Many of the world's river basins have a
during an emergency. The ultimate goal of transboundary component. In some cases
such a system is to ensure the safety and transboundary basins are covered by treaty,
security of the public and to protect property international agreements, or other
and the environment. To achieve this result, institutional arrangements. Such
however, means that the public must receive arrangements may or may not include river
and understand forecasts, and the myriad of or flood forecasting. Shared basins imply a
agencies having responsibility for emergency shared responsibility; an analysis of user
action and response also must receive the needs should include users in other
forecasts, have response strategies in place, countries.
and act upon the forecasts accordingly.
Often the mandate and capabilities of
Key users typically include: civil agencies at governmental organizations are not entirely
the national, provincial/state, and local level; clear. An institutional analysis of each
military organizations; corporations, agency's mandate, needs, capabilities and
especially those which operate structures; legal responsibility during a flood
volunteer emergency response organizations; emergency will help shape an emergency
and the media. A user analysis, and close preparedness and response plan. Overall,
one agency should be assigned the lead
responsibility (and accountability) for an
end-to-end system, with the system itself
potentially being operated by a number of
organizations.
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Guidelines for Reducing Flood Losses
A fundamental question is that of hydrological A logical agency to lead a country's
and meteorological coordination. In many flood forecasting and warning effort may
countries one or more agencies operate emerge from this analysis. The
meteorological forecast and climate networks, identified agency will require technical
while hydrological networks may be the support and leadership from several
responsibility of entirely different agencies or agencies. More importantly, there is a
departments. Coordination among these need for long-term political support for
bodies is essential because development of a the endeavour. Flood forecasting and
flood forecasting system may require the warning will have to compete with other
addition of new sensors or telemetry equipment national priorities, and resources and
funded by one agency being installed at a site financial support can atrophy,
operated by another one. A successful forecast particularly in the absence of flooding.
system will depend upon cooperation among
meteorological and hydrological agencies and There is a need to establish a flood-
could involve financial transactions among forecasting centre having a legal
them. mandate to issue authoritative forecasts
and warnings on the river basin or at the
Similarly there may be a number of agencies provincial/state or national level. These
with responsibility for operation of structures forecasts must be understood by
for water management and flood control. agencies having the responsibility for
These could include hydroelectric generation emergency response and by the general
facilities, irrigation headworks, water supply public. Such agencies, civil organizations
reservoirs, and so forth. Individual structures and the general public must be aware of
may have an established operating plan, but an their roles, have response mechanisms in
integrated plan for operations during extreme place, and know what actions to take
events is needed to provide optimal flood under various circumstances.
control benefits and to avoid structural failure.
Interagency co-ordination and cooperation is Determination of specific
required to ensure the integrity of the entire forecast system requirements
water management system during extreme
events. A flood forecasting and warning Analysis of the basin characteristics, flood
system provides the information necessary to history, flood damages, and the existing
improve decision support for the operation of databases will give some indication of the
structures. type of forecast system that is achievable
and affordable. It is likely that the system
Some agencies may have arrangements for will be based on enhancing existing
technical support or financial assistance with networks and agency capabilities.
international organizations or with other Establishing a new system implies phased
countries. These may prove beneficial in development from the existing system to
developing or improving a forecast system the new one. Establishing a long-term
through training and in general strengthening plan with specific milestones is critical to
of much needed organizational infrastructure. future success.
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3.2 The Hydrometeorological Network for Forecasting
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Guidelines for Reducing Flood Losses
Data acquisition Data communications
Generally the design and operation of data For data to be useful to the forecast centre,
networks have a large influence on forecast point data observed at remote locations must
system accuracy and in the ability of the be converted to digital formats. This may
system to provide the necessary lead-time to require changing the sensor itself or simply
issue warnings so that response actions can adding another component to an existing
be taken. It should be underscored that the system. The format for the digital data
design of reliable real-time operational must be specified. Remotely sensed images
observing networks is critical to the success used in forecasts are usually already in a
of a forecast, warning and response specified digital format. If the sensor output
programme. In order to be effective during is film, arrangements must be made to make
extreme conditions, sensor installations may the conversion to a specified digital format
have to be "hardened" to withstand extremes within the required time.
in wind, rain or flood stage.
Once data have been observed or collected
The advent of remotely sensed data has at sites throughout the river basin or
significantly improved the ability of country, the data must be transmitted to
operational hydrology to infer watershed locations where they can be stored, accessed,
conditions in data-sparse regions. The and used. The value of data increases with
application of radar-derived precipitation the speed of transmission and processing,
estimates serves as the principle tool in from their initial observation to where they
forecasting floods and flash floods in many are used. Meteorological and hydrological
countries. The use of geostationary and data are needed almost instantaneously so
polar orbiting satellites to derive large that the hydrological forecast system can
volumes of meteorological and hydrological produce up-to-date and reliable forecasts.
products is rapidly advancing. Remotely More importantly, this allows the system to
sensed data can now be used to provide provide the critical warning times needed for
estimates of precipitation, snowpack extent, users to take actions. This is especially true
vegetation type, land use, for issuing warnings of flash flood events
evapotranspiration, soil moisture and flood and of potentially hazardous mudslide
inundation. This information is becoming conditions.
increasingly useful in data-sparse regions of
the world where water availability and flood There are many types of communication
forecasts are needed. technologies that can be applied to transmit
data from sites in remote locations to the
Many countries use the Global forecast centres. The most common form of
Telecommunications System (GTS) of the data communication is by telephone.
World Meteorological Organization However, telephone lines frequently fail
(WMO) for the transfer of real-time during severe flood events. More reliable
meteorological data. More recently, some but potentially more expensive forms of data
hydrological data from a number of projects communications are satellite, line of site
were added to the system. Even with these radio, cellular radio and meteor bursts.
advances in remotely sensed data and their These also have their strengths and
use, inadequacy of data remains the biggest weaknesses. An evaluation should be
weakness in establishing a viable flood performed to establish the most suitable,
forecast programme for a river basin or for a reliable and cost-effective form of
country. communication for the local situation.
55
Data may be transmitted by dedicated satellite Network operation
links, radio links, by commercial telephone
links or other shared services. In some cases Often times the current operator of a site will
the data link could simply be a voice not have had a need for, or experience with, real
telephone communication. The forecast time data acquisition. Intensive staff training
centre may be required to poll sites may be required to ensure that data are
individually, interrogate a third-party system, available when needed and are of a suitable
or use the Internet to obtain data. Data quality.
transmission links must be identified, and
their reliability and speed should be Long-term maintenance is a major requirement
determined. If image products are to play a in operational forecasting. The forecast
role in the real time forecasts, bandwidth of network may be in operation only seasonally or
the transmission system and speed of the less frequently. Keeping the network in a state
processing system should be examined. of readiness though necessitates major changes
in operating philosophy. The development of
In many cases, national, provincial/state, local water management operational forecasts by the
governments and the private sector operate forecast centre, as well as flood forecasts,
real-time data networks to support their enhances the usefulness of the data network and
individual needs. In most cases, these data are communications systems, as well as maintaining
not shared, and each organization is limited to a state of readiness.
its own data. Coordination and data sharing
can significantly increase the amount of data Funding of alterations to existing networks and
available for all organizations. These for future maintenance presents a major
additional data, possibly complemented with challenge. Negotiations among operating or
new sites, will help increase forecast accuracy funding agencies may require abandoning
at the least cost. entrenched positions if success is to be achieved.
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3.4 The Forecast Centre
The flood forecast centre must be identifiable might already exist. They may include clearly
to agencies and to the public as the articulated roles and responsibilities, clear
authoritative source of flood forecasts and specifications of work, performance measures,
warnings. The forecasts produced by the and provisions for financial arrangements.
centre must be to the highest achievable International agreements for provision of data,
technical standard and be released to the use of satellite technology, and other support
public unfiltered by agency or political activities may also be required.
interests. The long-term stability of the centre
is dependent on the credibility and utility of its The Centre needs financing over both the
forecasts. short and longer term. Short-term financing
will be capital intensive as funding may be
Administratively the centre can be part of one necessary for network improvements,
agency or it could be a new entity supported construction, the acquisition of computers and
by several agencies. The forecast centre could software, and many other items. These could
be self-contained or, more likely, will depend best be funded by special national
on other agencies for support. appropriations or international support.
There may also be a local market for
Establishment of the centre specialized forecast products, which could be
paid for by users.
Analysis of existing conditions and needs will
determine whether a forecast centre will be Long-term financing will be needed to operate
established by strengthening an existing the Centre, pay staff, upgrade computer
facility or by creating a completely new systems, and make improvements in the
enterprise. The decision should be based on forecast methodologies. This operation will
political, administrative and technical require on-going national support even where
leadership of candidate agencies, as well as the specific improvements are funded
ability of the selected agency to work with internationally. If the mandate of the Centre
others. were expanded to include river forecasts for
operational water management purposes,
A project initiation team drawn from several financial support could be made available from
national agencies or consultants, with support agencies using the river forecasts. The
from international organizations and working possibilities include revenue from sale of water
to agreed-upon terms of reference, could licenses, other water use charges, or fees
examine the issues identified in these assessed to discourage development within the
Guidelines and make recommendations flood plain.
concerning the development of a Forecast
Centre. Their report should identify technical To operate effectively the Centre will need key
issues, personnel needed, administrative issues, personnel. Aside from technical skills, the
costs, and timelines. Centre will need people capable of working
collaboratively with other agencies and who
Interagency agreements will be needed for can communicate effectively. A significant
provision of data, operation of structures, training programme will be needed at the
weather forecasts, technical and administrative onset of the Centre, and the costs of on-going
support, and other tasks. Depending on the training should be built into the budget. In
basin, it is possible that such agreements the early stages, forecast procedures may have
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Guidelines for Reducing Flood Losses
to be tailored to the ability of existing staff, and Arrangements must also be made to
a training and development plan should be electronically archive data so that they are
established to upgrade skills and techniques to available for use in subsequent years. Some
improve the accuracy and utility of the forecast. data will have to be brought forward
frequently for use, while other data will only be
There will be an early need to gather basic used on occasion.
data, calibrate and verify models, and establish
working arrangements with other agencies. Forecast Centre operation
Visiting experts, or placing key staff in other
Forecast Centres for training, could aid this It is necessary to establish basic operating
process. procedures and assign staff responsibilities
early in the operation of the Centre. Part of
One approach in the early stages of this is the assignment of responsibilities for on-
development would be to concentrate efforts on going maintenance of systems.
a key basin or one of its sub-basins. Such a
pilot project could help verify the suitability of Capable staff are the key to producing good
models selected and the capabilities of staff. forecasts and maintaining the Centre's
This would give funding agencies a level of credibility. Capable staff will also be attracted
comfort. In the very earliest stages of to positions elsewhere so some staff turnover
development, the Centre could simply analyze can be expected. A systematic plan for staff
weather forecasts and provide warnings of training and development and the assignment
potential high flow conditions. of challenging work will help reduce turnover
rates. Some contingency planning will be
Data processing needed to ensure that the Centre will continue
to operate when key staff members leave.
Although data may have been pre-processed Efforts should be made to develop an
elsewhere, the Forecast Centre will require in- operations manual in order to reduce the
house data processing capability. Although Centre's vulnerability to loss of staff or other
some work could be done manually, computer unanticipated events. The manual should
systems should have uninterruptible power cover all aspects of the Centre's operation and
supplies. At the very least, emergency power maintenance, and it should include lists of key
systems should be available. contacts beyond the Centre.
If Geographic Information Systems and image Once the Centre has completed its first
products are expected to be used for real-time significant flood forecast season, an end-to-end
forecasts, computer memory and speed must review of all aspects of the forecast should be
be taken into account. Overall computing conducted to identify what went well and
system architecture and design should be where improvement might be necessary. The
planned for as part of the future development review should include interviews with persons
of the Centre. from other agencies and forecast users. The
results of such a review should be used to
Data processing needs will also depend upon modify procedures. Periodic audits of forecast
the selected forecast models and their data procedures and Centre operations should be
processing requirements. In the absence of carried out, perhaps involving staff from other
other requirements, data should be digitally Forecast Centres.
available and easily converted to formats used
by commercially-available spreadsheet
programmes.
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Forecast models its attenuation. These models use the
standard equations of unsteady, non-uniform
There are a large number of public domain flow with various simplifications depending
and proprietary models available for use in on the channel characteristics, available data
flood forecasting. Sometimes the model can and accuracy requirements. Storage-flow
be simply a statistical rainfall-runoff relation relations are often incorporated into
with a routing equation, while other models hydrological models. One-dimensional
can be much more complex. Hydrological unsteady flow hydraulic models can be used
models can be classified as lumped, semi- to route flows through multiple channels or
distributed or distributed, and as being single in situations where overland flow is a serious
event or continuous. Probabilistic models that concern.
take data uncertainties into account are also
available. Model selection will depend on Probabilistic forecasts are typically derived
available data, basin characteristics, and the using hydrological process models wherein
needs of the local user community. statistical distributions are used to describe
the uncertainty of input data and basin
A lumped model treats the watershed as a conditions such as precipitation data, soil
single unit for inputting data and calculating moisture and snow pack conditions. A large
runoff. The calculations are statistically based number of model projections are produced
and relate to the underlying hydrological that can be statistically analyzed to allow for
processes as a spatially averaged process. a better understanding of the uncertainty of
Models based on scaling unit hydrographs the forecasted future water conditions. This
would fall into this category. Some lumped approach is rapidly gaining popularity, as it
models allow the watershed to be subdivided provides the decision-maker with the
or for some parameters to be physically probability of an extreme event to occur, not
estimated and modelled. When subdivisions just that it might occur.
of a basin are combined to produce a forecast,
this modelling approach is termed semi- Simplified probabilistic methodologies that
distributed. Depending on forecast needs and provide a range of possible forecasts have
the characteristics of the watershed, a lumped existed for some time. This is achieved by
model may be all that is required. the forecaster making assumptions
concerning future precipitation to determine
A distributed model simulates the key runoff under normal, lower, or upper decile
hydrological processes that occur in a conditions. More modern approaches,
watershed using distributed data inputs and which tend to be in the pilot testing stage,
processes. For forecasting purposes these attempt to better quantify the uncertainty
commonly include precipitation, interception, associated with the forecasted meteorological
infiltration, interflow, and baseflow. Overland conditions and to directly link this
flow and channel routing may be incorporated uncertainty to the uncertainty of the flood
into the model or calculated in a hydraulic estimate.
model. Distributed models require much
more data and knowledge of watershed Sophistication of hydrological
processes than lumped models. When the forecasting
model is first established, precipitation and
land cover characteristics may be the only Essentially, the prevailing geomorphological
distributed features. conditions of the river basin and the
interaction of communities at risk with the
Hydraulic models used in channel routing river system dictate the level of sophistication
calculate the travel time of the flood wave and of the modelling solution. The performance
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Guidelines for Reducing Flood Losses
of existing models or forecast procedures should Forecasts
be evaluated. Whether the forecast process
involves use of simple graphs or tables or a In order to produce a flood forecast for
robust integrated modelling system, evaluation the communities and locations at risk,
of forecast accuracy versus lead-time should be there must be a hydrological modelling
determined. Does the system perform well when capability that uses meteorological and
adequate data are available? Are model hydrological data. Hydrological models
parameters up-to-date? Do model parameters use real-time precipitation and streamflow
reflect land use changes that have occurred data. The models translate observed
within the basin? Can the model or its conditions into future stream conditions.
parameters be easily modified to reflect pending Hydrological models or procedures vary
land-use changes within the basin? Does the in complexity, accuracy and ease of use.
modelling system reflect flood control structures Simple hydrological models consist of
and their operations within the basin? Are there tables, graphs or empirically derived
important hydrological processes occurring in relationships. More sophisticated
the basin that are not reflected in the existing hydrological modelling systems use in-situ
forecast model? Does the forecast system data, remotely sensed data, and multiple
perform well for flooding but is inadequate to hydrological models that are integrated to
meet routine or low flow forecast requirements? produce very accurate hydrological
Is there a need to convert hydrological forecasts forecasts. Due to advances in Geographic
to water level (stage) using a hydraulic model? Information Systems and the availability
In general, is the existing modelling system of geo-referenced data, parameters of
appropriate and sufficient to meet user some hydrological models can now be
requirements? estimated without having to rely
exclusively on historical hydrological data
Hydrological forecasting knowledge for model calibration. The evolution of
personal computer technology has paved
Highly trained hydrologists produce reliable the way for quite complex modelling
hydrological forecasts. Forecasters use real-time systems to be run on them. These systems
data, knowledge of hydrology, knowledge of the are easier to use, are easier to maintain,
hydrological modelling system and experience and are more affordable.
in producing forecasts and warnings. In
determining the operational readiness or Current hydrological forecast systems are
hydrological forecast capability of a forecast quite affordable and powerful. The
centre, the education, knowledge and skills of degree of success associated with these
the forecasters are as important as the tools they systems is dependent on the amount of
use. Is the number of forecasters available training received by the hydrologists
sufficient to handle the flooding situation? Do using them. These systems are capable of
the forecasters have sufficient education in producing a broad range of forecasts of
hydrology and meteorology to appropriately stream conditions that will occur in a few
apply the tools? Are they properly trained, and hours to seasonal probabilistic outlooks
do they understand the limitations of the targeted to months in advance for larger
modelling system being used? Do the rivers. Model system selection depends
forecasters know the users, how to contact on the amount of data available,
them, and what information they require for complexity of hydrological processes to
flood response actions? An assessment of the be modelled, accuracy and reliability
adequacy of the operational forecaster capability required, lead-time required, type and
is important in determining how to improve frequency of floods that occur, and user
flood forecast operations. requirements.
61
Hydraulic models are often used to translate However, decision makers and the public are
hydrological model-derived streamflow to most often concerned with water levels and
water-level conditions. Hydraulic models are velocities at specific points, usually urban
also valuable in forecasting the streamflow centres. Forecasted flows can be converted to
conditions of large rivers where sufficient water levels and velocities using stage-
lead-time is accorded through translation of discharge and stage-velocity relations,
upstream water levels to downstream hydraulic models, or other techniques.
communities at risk. Such models can be Decision makers and emergency workers
interfaced with geographical information should be consulted on their specific forecast
systems to provide dynamic water level requirements.
conditions on maps of communities. These
types of forecast products can be invaluable to In many cases, forecast water levels are given
communities and emergency organizations, as according to a local vertical datum. This may
they provide very precise information about be convenient for some purposes but may
areas that will be inundated and when. introduce potential for confusion. With the
advent of global positioning systems, it is
Decision support possible to provide a geodetic datum at any
location and this should be done.
Hydrometeorological data and accurate
forecasts are of no value if the forecasts do The forecast water levels released to the
not reach users and if decisions are not made public could be in several formats: tabular,
as to the appropriate actions required. hydrographs, or inundation maps. It is very
Hydrological forecasts and hydraulic useful to provide comparisons with the
conditions must be disseminated so that previous year or with previous major floods.
decisions can be made and actions taken to Inundation maps linked to databases can
reduce the impact of the pending event. provide information on individual properties
Decision support refers to everything from and can be most useful for public awareness
forecasts reaching decision makers such as a and emergency services.
mayor of a flood-prone community to the
operator of a flood-control structure. For The forecast should be formally released and
decision support to be effective, advanced made available to key agencies as well as the
planning must define prescribed actions media. The forecast should also be placed on
linked to forecasted values. Internet websites for easy access.
Decision support systems vary from rules or The points for which the forecast applies
procedures that must be followed under should be communicated very clearly. For
prescribed conditions to mathematical example, the name of a city in the basin
optimization programmes. Such approaches should be identified, or in the case of very
define actions to be taken based on tradeoffs large cities, well-known points within the city
among various options for water allocation. should be specified.
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Guidelines for Reducing Flood Losses
Dissemination of forecasts data, detailed hydrological forecasts for short-
and warnings term as well as for longer time horizons.
Emergency services groups and media
Forecast and warning dissemination is organizations need clearly stated warning
extremely important. Frequently, the lack of information that defines the hazard and spells
ability to disseminate warnings to the out what steps the public must take to
population at risk is the weakest link in the minimize their risk.
integrated system. Forecasts and warnings
must reach users without delay and with Notification and action
sufficient lead-time to permit response actions
to take place. Dissemination of forecasts and The entire process of establishing a flood
warnings can be achieved through a variety of forecast is of no value unless data and
communication methods. An inventory of the forecasts reach users. An effective fail-safe
various communications media used by the forecast dissemination system must be
forecast system will reveal the competency of established to allow forecasts and warnings to
the dissemination process. How are warnings reach users, wherever they are. Notifying
transmitted to the public, to the flood control users is often problematic because many
agencies, to the emergency services and civil countries do not have communication systems
protection organizations? Are communication that reach rural villages and other
systems reliable? What types of communities at risk. Internet is an effective
communication modes are used (such as worldwide communication system, but the
satellite, radio, meteor bursts, telephone or user must have access and be vigilant in order
internet)? How are communications lines to receive the warning. There are many
maintained? Are there backup modes of examples of effective dissemination systems
communication? In what format are based on high-speed telecommunications that
warnings transmitted? Do users understand use satellite, microwave, radio, or meteor
the content of the warnings? These are a few burst technology.
of the questions that need to be answered in
assessing the performance of dissemination An effective flood-warning programme must
systems. also be linked to the media to reach
populations inhabiting the areas at risk. In
Users many cases, the media can provide an
effective means of re-broadcasting warnings
Who are the users? Understanding the and assist in response-oriented
needs of users is fundamental to achieving a communications.
successful flood forecast, warning and
response programme. What kinds of data The payoff from a successful end-to-end
and information do they need? Where are flood forecast and response programme is
they? How do you reach them during the when actions are taken to reduce the impact
day or late at night or during a national of the impending flood. Actions can be as
holiday? How do they make decisions? simple as moving contents from the first floor
of a person's house to the second floor,
Establishing a user group association or an evacuating the flood plain, blocking roads
inventory of users is important for a well that will be flooded, or closing floodgates of a
functioning and effective forecasting system. levee system that protects a city. If no
The sophistication and needs of users can mitigation actions result from flood forecasts
vary considerably. For example, the and warnings, society is simply paying money
hydropower industry needs high-resolution for ineffective results.
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