CHAPTER-4

FLOOD WARNING AND DROUGHT MONITORING

4.1. Flood Warning

Floods are hydrological events caused by abnormally high amounts of water input and
insufficient discharge capacity. Early warning systems are instigated to warn emergency
services, local and central government as well as those communities at risk to take effective
action before the occurrence of the likely flood. Effective early flood warning is essential if local
authorities and emergency services can undertake the necessary measures to mitigate the effects
of a potential flood and to warn the population of a possible threat. Early flood warning systems
serve to save lives, to minimize flood damage to properties and reduce economic and ‘social’
losses. Flood warning systems are systems designed to give forewarning of the likelihood of
flooding in order to save lives and property. It ensures that the end users of the forecast receive
appropriate warnings in time to take effective action to save lives and minimize damage to
property.

The detection of the likelihood for flooding is achieved by meteorological and hydrological
observations. The operation of an early warning system should be integral to the action of the
local flood warning, water resource authority, local authorities and emergency service. Flood
warning should give time to construct temporary defenses, to evacuate people if necessary and
to move valuables from buildings and properties.

Flood warning is crucial part of the flood management of system, but it can only be useful if
integrated in pre and post flood activities. Early flood warning systems are essential for the
protection of the population against flood hazards as it allows people to get prepared. However,
early flood warning system will not prevent flooding. Increased public awareness of floods and a
high level of community preparedness can be achieved and maintained by educational programs.

We have to learn to live with floods (Plate & Insisiengmay, 2005); even the most sophisticated
warning system may fail to warn in some cases, particularly in areas with short lead-time (basin
response time). However, with the evolution of increasingly sophisticated models, more
powerful computer systems as well as improvements in rapid detection of precipitation (e.g.
weather radar and satellites), it would be expected that the future prediction rates of flooding
would improve.

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 A flood is an overflow of an excess of water that submerges land usually not covered by water.
Flooding may result from the volume of water within a body of water such as river or lake,
exceeding the total capacity of its bounds, with the result that some of the water flows or sits
outside of the normal perimeter of the body.

Flash floods are flooding of short duration with a relatively high peak discharge. It is normally
caused by heavy rainfall associated with a thunderstorm or tropical storm. They can also occur
after collapse of dam or breakdown of piled up debris in a river. Flash floods are distinguished
from regular floods by time scale of less than six hours from rising to going back to normal.
Storm surges are floods caused by rapidly rising seawater and inundation of low lying coastal
areas. Storm surges are normally caused by a combination with very air pressure, strong wind
towards the coast and high tide.

Tsunami is most often, a wave caused by an earthquake in the sea. It hits the coasts and can
cause serious destruction in flat near-shore areas. The purposes of flood systems are for
protecting lives and livelihoods from flood hazards, however, requires a high level of ongoing
commitment and support beyond one-time installation coast. Floods have the greatest damage
potential of all natural disasters worldwide and affect the greatest number of people. On a global
basis, there is evidence that the number of people affected and economic damages resulting from
flooding are on the rise at an alarming rate. Society must move from the current paradigm of
post disaster response. Plans and efforts must be undertaken to break the current event disaster
cycle. Assessment of risk and the involvement of the community in the decision making,
planning and implementation process can help lead to sustainable solutions. Solutions must
reflect the human dimension and must also consider the impacts of changing land use on
flooding, erosion, and land slide. Integrated water management practice must be embraced.

The basic benefit of flood warning system program is an increased lead time for watches and
warnings at locations subject to flood risk. The information can be used to predict whether a
flood is about to occur, when will it arrive, and how severe it will be. Organization and
individuals are given notice by the system so they can protect themselves and their property.
Flood warning programs can be extremely effective. Those now in use have been credited with
saving scores of lives and preventing millions of dollars of damage.

Objective of Flood Forecasting and Warning

Objective of flood forecasting and warning is to reduce damage and loss of life due to flooding
through provision of warning prior to a flood event. Warning must be followed by a response to
be effective.
A warning is issued to indicate imminent danger of flooding
– Emergency authorities (police, fire department, mayors, etc.)
– Specific users (farmers, hospitals etc.)
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– General public
Methods of flood warning
– Direct communication (phone, SMS, email)
– Indirect (internet, radio, television)
The basic elements of a Community Flood Warning System are: Prediction (Weather forecasts
and news releases), Detection (Observation of rainfall and flood levels), Communication
(Relay of information to flood response teams and disaster agencies), Decision making
(Decision to evacuate by flood response teams) and Mobilization (Evacuation of community)

Types of Early Flood Warning Systems

Various types of flood warning systems are world-wide in operation and their complexity
depend on the local flood history, available operators and financial constraints. Simple and more
complex early warning systems are described in the following sections.
1. Manual Flood Warning Systems
Manual flood warning system are simple and inexpensive system based on data collection by
mostly voluntary on-site observers who deliver rainfall and river level data to a flood warning
operator. The flood warning operator follows procedures and with the information from past
floods and an index to estimate the flood potential, the operator develops a basic flood forecast.
Indices for flood potential are normally determined by specialists and can indicate flood
seriousness categories in relation to a predicted predetermined peak value. If possible, a time
estimate for the expected peak and flood duration is included. The usefulness of manual flood
warning systems are largely dependent on the rate of communication between observers and
flood warning operator (e.g. use of telephone communication or postal).

2. Simple Automated Flood Warning Systems

Automated flood warning systems consist of rainfall and river level monitoring stations that
automatically deliver real-time data (e.g. via radio, telephone, satellite) to flood warning
operator. An efficient early warning system requires a number of rainfall and water level
measuring stations at key points of the catchment (e.g. head water alarm sites). Incoming data is
stored and analyzed at a base station computer that is programmed to activate audio or visual
alarms in the case of a river level or precipitation thresholds threshold being exceeding.

3. Sophisticated Flood Warning Systems

Sophisticated flood warning system use real-time meteorological and hydrological data in
theoretical and empirical as well hybrid hydraulic/hydrological models to predict the possibility
of flooding. Complex and continental flood warning systems are now operational based on the
Sacramento model that was originally a conceptual (theoretical) model that has been modified
using empirical data, thus becoming a robust hybrid model. For meaningful flood prediction, a

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 customized flood forecasting system needs to be setup to the specific characteristics of the
catchment or multiple catchments in the case of integrated systems. Catchments information
such as soil moisture and substrate are also included in sophisticated numerical models e.g.
Sacramento, MIKE 11. Real time data must be delivered rapidly via radio transmitter,
microwave link, satellite or telephone lines. Weather Radar is now regarded as superior as a
predictive tool since the response time and data acquisition is far faster than traditional rain
gauge and river flow data driven systems.

Key Elements of Flood Early Warning System

a. Risk Knowledge
The risk is defined as the combination of the probability of an event and its negative
consequences. Risks arise when hazards and vulnerabilities appear together at a particular
location. Assessment of risk require systematic collection and analysis of data and should be
consider the dynamic nature of hazards and vulnerabilities that arise from process such as
urbanization, rural land-use change, environmental degradation and climate change. Risk
assessments and maps help to motivate people, prioritize early warning system needs and guide
preparations for disaster preventions and responses.

b. Monitoring and Warning Services

Warning services lie at the core of the system. There must be a sound scientific for predicting
and forecasting hazards and a reliable forecasting and warning system operate 24 hours a day.
Continuous monitoring of hazards parameters and contributing factors is essential to generate
accurate warning in a time fashion. Warning services for different hazards should be coordinated
with stakeholders and relevant agencies to gain the benefit to share institutional, procedural and
communication networks.

c. Dissemination and Communication

Warning must reach those at risk. Clear messages containing simple, useful information are
critical to enable proper understanding of warning and responses in order to safeguard lives and
livelihoods. Regional, national and community level communication systems must be pre-
identified and appropriate authoritative mandate established. The use of multiple communication
channels is necessary to ensure that as many people as possible are warned, to avoid failure of
any one channel, and to reinforce the warning message.

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d. Response Capability
It is essential that communities understand their risk; respect and follow the warning and know
how to react. Education and preparedness programs play a key role in reducing risks. It is also
essential that disaster management plans are in place, resources allocated and standards
procedures well practiced and tested. The community should be well informed on options for
safe behavior, available escape routes, and how best to avoid damage and loss to property.

Components of the Community Flood Warning System

I. Observers: Observe rainfall and water level gauges
II. Communication Network: Relays information response team and
disaster agencies when alert and critical flood levels are reached.
III. Decision Component: Community decides whether or not to
evacuate based on rainfall or water level observations.
IV. Response: Community packs away valuables at alert level and
evacuates to emergency shelter at critical level.

How Automatic Flood Warning Systems Work

Basically this system includes a set of rainfall and water level measuring stations set up over key
points in a watershed or its sub-basins. Every station transmits its information in real time to
repeater stations which are linked to a master station where the data from all basins are received
and processed and the change in water level at different points of interest can be closely
watched. When flooding is likely to occur, a flood warning will be issued by the Office of
Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) and appropriate action taken to
reduce damage and save lives.

Flood warning is closely linked to the task of flood forecasting. The distinction between the two
is that the outcome of flood forecasting is a set of forecast time profiles of channel flows or river
levels at various locations, while "flood warning" is the task of making use of these forecasts.

Flood Forecasting As Part of the Flood Warning Process

Flood warning systems are typically tailor-made to suit the specific requirements for the
location(s) for which the warning are to be provided, ranging from fast responding local
warnings systems in the head waters of a river or urban areas, to flood warning systems for
lower reaches of larger river basins.

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Often, flood warning systems are developed to cover all rivers within an administrative
boundary, depending on the responsibility of the authorities whose obligation it is to deliver the
forecast. Despite the apparent variety in approaches, the elements on which the effective flood
warning depends is an optimal combination of activities as depicted in figure 1.

Detection Warning Response

Forecasting

Fig. 1 stages in delivery of effective flood warning

1. Detection. In the detection stage, real-time data on processes that could generate a
flood event are monitored. This includes primarily, monitoring of hydrological and
meteorological conditions in the catchment through online information gathered through
telemetry systems, climate stations, weather radar, and so on.
2. Forecasting. In this stage, predictions are made of levels and flows, as well as the time
of occurrence of possible forth coming flood events. Typically this involves the use of
hydrological models, driven by both the real-time data gathered in the detection phase and
forecasts of meteorological conditions such as rainfall and temperature.
3. Warning and dissemination. This stage is the key factor in the success of operational
flood warning. Using information derived from the detection and forecasting stages, the
decision to warn appropriate authorities and/or properties at risk must be taken. The warning
must be such that it gives an unambiguous message on the imminent flood potential.

4. Response. Response to flood warning issued is vital for achieving the aims of
operational flood warning. If the objective is to reduce damage through flood preparedness, an
appropriate response by relevant authorities and affected person must be taken the following a
warning, if it is to be realized.

Classification of Flood Forecasting Systems

Based on desired lead time Td (the time that is needed to effectively undertake the two final steps
of warning and response) to the hydrological response time Tp at the location for which the
forecast is to be provided, forecasting can be classified as: now casting (a few hours), short-
range forecasting (hours to two days), medium range forecasting (2-10 days), and long-range
and seasonal forecasting (between 10 days and a year).

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 Elements of a Flood Forecasting System
The choice of an appropriate forecasting method incorporated in the flood forecasting systems
used in the forecast stage will depend very much on how the desired lead time and hydrological
response time compare for the location at which a flood warning service is to be provided. The
key elements of a forecasting systems operating in a real-time environment are:

a. Real-Time Data Acquisition

Real-Time data acquisition for observed meteorological and hydrological conditions is provided
through the detection stage, and it is clear that the data must be made available.
b. Hydrologic and Hydraulic Models for Simulation
A wide range of modelling approaches may be applied where models take information on the
current and past states of the system, and forecasts are made for the desired lead time as a
function of boundary inputs on the system
c. Forecast of Meteorological Conditions
Where necessary, forecast of meteorological conditions are required to allow issue of warning at
sufficient lead time. Generally, these forecasts are sourced from meteorological services, and
must be integrated within the flood forecasting system.
d. Updating and Data Assimilation
Through the process of data assimilation and updating, simulated data are combined with real-
time data to provide a more accurate forecast.

Evaluating Forecast Performance and Dealing with Uncertainties

The level of confidence that can be placed in a model derived forecast is an important factor, if
rational decision is to be made by the flood forecaster on whether or not to issue a warning on
the basis of that forecast. The uncertainty in the forecast may arise as a result of data errors,
model structure, uncertainty in model parameters, and most importantly, uncertainties in the
forecast model boundary conditions. To help make uncertainties explicit, numerous techniques
have been applied, although most of these have yet to prove their value in operational flood
forecasting. A simplified method to deal with uncertainties in input data used operationally has
been the definition of so-called what-if scenarios.

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 Integrated Flood Warning and Response System
Establishing a viable flood forecasting and warning system for communities at risk requires the
combination of data, forecast tools, and trained forecaster. A flood forecast system must provide
sufficient lead time for communities to respond. Increasing lead time increases the potential to
lower the level of damages and loss of life.

Flood-warning systems must be reliable and designed to operate during the most severe floods.
The greatest benefits for an effective flood-warning program occur when flooding is severe,
widespread, and/or sudden, and when communities and organizations are prepared to mitigate
impacts.
A flood forecasting, warning and response system comprise important elements of integrated
water resources management. The benefits of river forecast for power generation, navigation or
irrigated agriculture make implementation of such a system more cost effective and sustainable,
an analysis of the cost of floods and the potential benefits may help determine the type of
forecast and warning system and response mechanisms that would be most cost effective.

Establishment of a successful flood forecasting, warning and response system depends on a

though analysis of existing capabilities, identification of key users for the system, and good
understanding of the interagency arrangements needed in an effective system. Analysis of the
basin characteristics, flood history, flood damages, and the existing databases will give some
indication of the type of forecast that is achievable and affordable.

4.2. Drought Monitoring

Drought is an insidious natural hazard characterized by lower than expected or lowers than
normal precipitation that, when a season or longer period of time extended over, is insufficient
to meet the demands of human activities and the environment. Drought is a temporary
aberration, unlike aridity, which is a permanent feature of climate. Seasonal aridity, that is, a
well-defined dry season, also needs to be distinguished from drought, as these terms are often
confused or used interchangeably. The differences need to be understood and properly
incorporated in drought monitoring and early warning systems and preparedness plans. Drought
must be considered a relative, rather than an absolute, condition. It occurs in both high and low
rainfall areas and virtually all climate regimes.
Drought is often associated only with arid, semi-arid and sub-humid regions by scientists,
policymakers and the public. In reality, drought occurs in most countries, in both dry and humid
regions. Drought is a normal part of climate, although its spatial extent and severity will vary on
seasonal and annual timescales. In many countries, such as Australia, China, India and the
United States of America, drought occurs over a portion of the country each year.

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Owing to the frequent occurrence of drought and the profound impacts associated with it,
governments should devote more attention to the development of a national strategy or policy to
reduce its economic, social and environmental consequences. A critical component of that
strategy is a comprehensive drought monitoring system that can provide early warning of
drought’s onset and end, determine its severity and deliver that information to a broad clientele
in many climate- and water-sensitive sectors in a timely manner. With this information, the
impacts of drought can be reduced or avoided in many cases.
Drought is a regional phenomenon and its characteristics differ from one climate regime to
another. Drought occurs in each of these locations, but characteristics such as frequency and
duration vary appreciably. New Delhi’s precipitation pattern is distinctly monsoonal, with
maximum precipitation occurring from June to October, with the greatest concentration in July,
August and September. Tunis has a distinctly Mediterranean-type (dry summer) climate regime.
Nairobi’s precipitation distribution is distinctly bi-modal, with peak rainfall expected from
March through May and a second concentration in November and December. London’s
precipitation is evenly distributed throughout the year. In each example, a significant departure
from these regimes for an extended period of time will result in impacts in climate- and water
sensitive sectors. Impacts are also regional in nature, reflecting exposure to the hazard and the
vulnerability of society to extended periods of precipitation deficits. Impacts are a measure of
vulnerability. Risk is a product of exposure to the hazard and societal vulnerability. Drought by
itself is not a disaster. Whether it becomes a disaster depends on its impact on local people,
economies and the environment and their ability to cope with and recover from it. Therefore, the
key to understanding drought is to grasp its natural and social dimensions. The goal of drought
risk management is to increase society’s coping capacity, leading to greater resilience and a
reduced need for government or donor interventions in the form of disaster assistance. Drought
monitoring and early warnings are major components of drought risk management.

Drought as a hazard: concepts and definitions

Drought differs from other natural hazards in various ways. Drought is a slow-onset natural
hazard that is often referred to as a creeping phenomenon. It is a cumulative departure from
normal or expected precipitation, that is, a long-term mean or average. This cumulative
precipitation deficit may build up quickly over a period of time, or it may take months before the
deficiency begins to appear in reduced stream flows, reservoir levels or increased depth to the
groundwater table. Owing to the creeping nature of drought, its effects often take weeks or

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months to appear. Precipitation deficits generally appear initially as a deficiency in soil water;
therefore, agriculture is often the first sector to be affected.
It is often difficult to know when a drought begins. Likewise, it is also difficult to determine
when a drought is over and according to what criteria this determination should be made. Is an
end to drought heralded by a return to normal precipitation and, if so, over what period of time
does normal or above normal precipitation need to be sustained for the drought to be declared
officially over? Since drought represents a cumulative precipitation deficit over an extended
period of time, does the precipitation deficit need to be erased for the event to end? Do
reservoirs and groundwater levels need to return to normal or average conditions? Impacts linger
for a considerable period of time following the return of normal precipitation. Therefore, is the
end of drought signaled by meteorological or climatological factors, or by the diminishing
negative impact on human activities and the environment?
Another factor that distinguishes drought from other natural hazards is the absence of a precise
and universally accepted definition. There are hundreds of definitions, adding to the confusion
about the existence of drought and its degree of severity. Definitions of drought should be region
and application specific or impact specific. Droughts are regional in extent and, as previously
stated, each region has specific climatic characteristics. Droughts that occur in the North
American Great Plains will differ from those in Northeast Brazil, southern Africa, Western
Europe, eastern Australia or the North China Plain.
The amount, seasonality and form of precipitation differ widely between each of these locations.
Temperature, wind and relative humidity are also important factors to include in characterizing
drought from one location to another. Definitions also need to be application specific because
drought impacts will vary between sectors. Drought conjures different meanings for water
managers, agricultural producers, hydroelectric power plant operators and wildlife biologists.
Even within sectors, there are many different perspectives of drought because impacts may
differ markedly. For example, the effects of drought on crop yield may vary considerably for
maize, wheat, soybeans and sorghum because they are planted at different times during the
growing season and do not have the same water requirements and sensitivities to water and
temperature stress at various growth stages. Drought impacts are non-structural and extend over
a larger geographical area than damages that result from other natural hazards such as floods,
tropical storms and earthquakes. This, combined with drought’s creeping nature, makes it
particularly challenging to quantify impacts and even more challenging to provide disaster relief
for drought than for other natural hazards. These characteristics have hindered the development
of accurate, reliable and timely estimates of the severity and impacts, such as drought early

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warning systems and ultimately, the formulation of drought preparedness plans. Similarly, it is
difficult for disaster officials tasked with responding to drought to deal
wit h the large spatial cov erage usuall y associate d with its o ccurrence.

Fig ure 1.Sequence of drought occurrenc e and impacts for commonly accepted drought types. All dro ughts originate
From a deficiency of precipitation or meteorological drought but other types of drought and impacts
cascade from this deficiency. (Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska–
Lincoln, USA)

Types of drought
Droughts are commonly classified by type as meteorological, agricultural, hydrological and
socioeconomic.
1 Meteorological drought is usually defined by a precipitation deficiency threshold
over a predetermined period of time. The threshold chosen, such as 75 per cent of normal
precipitation, and duration period, for example, six months, will vary by location according to
user needs or applications.
Figure 2 illustrates three characterizations of drought for two different countries based on
precipitation departures from normal, deciles and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).
Meteorological drought is a natural event and results from multiple causes, which differ from
region to region. Agricultural, hydrological and socio-economic drought, however, place greater
emphasis on the human or social aspects of drought, highlighting the interaction or interplay

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between the natural characteristics of meteorological drought and human activities that depend
on precipitation to provide adequate water supplies to meet societal and
env ironmental demands.

Fig ure 2. Meteorological drought exp ressed as p ercentage departure fr om normal precipitati on for Indi a,
And precipitation deciles for Australia (Sources: Indian Meteorological Department, Australian
Bureau of Meteorology and Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration and Agriculture
Canada, respectively)

2 Agricultural drought is defined more commonly by the availability of soil water to

support crop and forage growth than by the departure of normal precipitation over some
specified period of time. There is no direct relationship between precipitation and infiltration of
precipitation into the soil. Infiltration rates vary, depending on antecedent moisture conditions,
slope, soil type and the intensity of the precipitation event. Soil characteristics also differ: some
soils have a high water-holding capacity while others do not. The latter are more prone to
agricultural drought.
3 Hydrological drought is even further removed from the precipitation deficiency since
it is normally defined by the departure of surface and subsurface water supplies from some
average condition at various points in time. Like agricultural drought, there is no direct
relationship between precipitation amounts and the status of surface and subsurface water
supplies in lakes, reservoirs, aquifers and streams because these hydrological system
components are used for multiple and competing purposes, such as irrigation, recreation,
tourism, flood control, transportation, hydroelectric power production, domestic water supply,

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protection of endangered species and environmental and ecosystem management and
preservation. There is also a considerable time lag between departures of precipitation and the
point at which these deficiencies become evident in surface and subsurface components of the
hydrologic system.
Recovery of these components is slow because of long recharge periods for surface and
subsurface water supplies. In some drought-prone areas, such as the western United States, snow
pack accumulated during the winter months is the primary source of water during the summer.
Reservoirs increase the resilience of this region to drought because of their ability to store large
amounts of water as a buffer during single- or multiyear drought events.
4. Socio-economic drought differs markedly from the other types of drought because
it reflects the relationship between the supply and demand for some commodity or economic
good, such as water, livestock forage or hydroelectric power that is dependent on precipitation.
Supply varies annually as a function of precipitation or water availability. Demand also
fluctuates and is often associated with a positive trend as a result of increasing population,
development or other factors.
Agricultural, hydrological and socio-economic drought occurs less frequently than
meteorological drought because impacts in these sectors are related to the availability of surface
and subsurface water supplies. It usually takes several weeks before precipitation deficiencies
begin to produce soil moisture deficiencies leading to stress on crops, pastures and rangeland.
Continued dry conditions for several months at a time bring about a decline in stream flow and
reduced reservoir and lake levels and, potentially, a lowering of the groundwater table. When
drought conditions persist for a period of time, agricultural, hydrological and socio-economic
drought occur, producing associated impacts. During drought, not only are inflows to recharge
surface and subsurface supplies reduced but demand for these resources increases dramatically
as well. The direct linkage between the main types of drought and precipitation deficiencies is
reduced because water availability in surface and subsurface systems is affected by how these
systems are managed. Changes in the management of these water supplies can either reduce or
aggravate the impacts of drought. For example, the adoption of appropriate tillage practices and
planting more drought-resistant crop varieties can diminish the impact of drought significantly
by conserving soil water and reducing transpiration.

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Characterizing drought and its severity

Droughts have three distinguishing features: intensity, duration and spatial coverage. Intensity
refers to the degree of the precipitation shortfall and/or the severity of impacts associated with
the shortfall. It is generally measured by the departure from normal of a climatic parameter such
as precipitation, an indicator such as the reservoir level or an index such as SPI. Another
essential characteristic of drought is its duration. Droughts can develop quickly in some climatic
regimes, but usually require a minimum of two to three months to become established. Once a
drought begins, it can persist for months or years. The magnitude of drought impacts is closely
related to the timing of the onset of the precipitation shortage, its intensity and the duration of
the event. For example, a dry winter may have few impacts in many middle latitude, temperate
climates because of the reduced demand for water during those months. Developing a better
understanding of the frequency, duration and spatial extent of drought from the paleo-record, for
example, tree rings or lake sediments can be very instructive because it provides planners with
critically important information from periods outside of the instrumental period of record.
Droughts also differ in their spatial characteristics. The areas affected by severe drought evolve
gradually, and regions of maximum intensity, such as epicenter, shift from season to season and
year to year in the event of multi-year droughts. In larger countries, such as Brazil, China, India,
the United States or Australia, drought would rarely, if ever, affect the entire country. During
1934, one of the most severe drought years in United States’ history, 65 per cent of the country
was affected by severe or extreme drought. That was the maximum spatial extent of drought
between 1895 and 2005.
The challenges of drought monitoring and early warning

A drought early warning system is designed to identify climate and water supply trends and thus
to detect the emergence or probability of occurrence and the likely severity of drought. This
information can reduce impacts if delivered to decision makers in a timely and appropriate
format and if mitigation measures and preparedness plans are in place. Understanding the
underlying causes of vulnerability is also an essential component of drought management
because the ultimate goal is to reduce risk for a particular location and for a specific group of
people or economic sector.
There are numerous natural drought indicators that should be monitored routinely to determine
the onset and end of drought and its spatial characteristics. Severity must also be evaluated on
frequent time steps. Although all types of droughts originate from a precipitation deficiency, it is
insufficient to rely solely on this climate element to assess severity and resultant impacts

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 because of factors identified previously. Effective drought early warning systems must integrate
precipitation and other climatic parameters with water information such as stream flow, snow
pack, groundwater levels, reservoir and lake levels, and soil moisture into a comprehensive
assessment of current and future drought and water supply conditions. Monitoring drought
presents some unique challenges because of its distinctive characteristics. Some of the most
prominent challenges are as follows:
• Meteorological and hydrological data networks are often inadequate in terms of the density of
stations for all major climate and water supply parameters. Data quality is also a problem
because of missing data or an inadequate length of record;
• Data sharing is inadequate between government agencies and research institutions, and the high
cost of data limits their application in drought monitoring, preparedness, mitigation and
response;
• Information delivered through early warning systems is often too technical and detailed, limiting
its use by decision makers;
• Forecasts are often unreliable on the seasonal timescale and lack specificity, reducing their
usefulness for agriculture and other sectors;
• Drought indices are sometimes inadequate for detecting the early onset and end of drought;
• Drought monitoring systems should be integrated, coupling multiple climate, water and soil
parameters and socio-economic indicators to fully characterize drought magnitude, spatial extent
and potential impact; • Impact assessment methodologies, a critical part of drought monitoring
and early warning systems, are not standardized or widely available, hindering impact estimates
and the creation of regionally appropriate mitigation and response programs;
• Delivery systems for disseminating data to users in a timely manner are not well developed,
limiting their usefulness for decision support.
Drought monitoring activities: case study
IGAD climate prediction and applications Centre (ICPAC)
The Greater Horn of Africa, like many parts of the tropics, is prone to extreme climate events
such as droughts and floods. In an effort to minimize the negative impacts of extreme climate
events, WMO and the United Nations Development Program established the regional Drought
Monitoring Centre (DMC) in Nairobi and a sub-Centre in Harare in 1989 covering 24 countries
in the eastern and southern African sub region. In 2003, DMC Nairobi became a specialized
institution of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and was renamed the
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). The participating countries of
ICPAC are Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda and
United Republic of Tanzania. The Centre is responsible for climate monitoring, prediction, early

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 warning and applications for the reduction of climate-related risks in the Greater Horn of Africa.
ICPAC’s main objective is to contribute to climate monitoring and prediction services for early
warning and mitigation of the adverse impacts of extreme climate events on various socio-
economic sectors in the region, such as agricultural production and food security, water
resources, energy and health. The early warning products enable users to put mechanisms in
place for coping with extreme climate- and weather-related risks in the Greater Horn of Africa.
The Centre also promotes capacity-building for both climate scientists and users.
ICPAC provides regular regional climate advisories, including 10-day, monthly and seasonal
climate bulletins as well as timely early warning information on evolving climate extremes and
associated impacts. Regional Climate Outlook Forums are also being held before the onset of the
major rainfall seasons to provide consensus climate outlooks and to develop mitigation
strategies. Below are some of the activities undertaken by ICPAC:
• Development and archiving of regional and national quality-controlled climate databanks;
• Data processing, including development of basic climatological statistics;
• Timely acquisition of near real-time climate and remotely sensed data;
• Monitoring space-time evolutions of weather and climate extremes over the region;
• Generation of climate prediction and early warning products;
• Delineation of risk zones of extreme climate related events;
• Timely dissemination of early warning products;
• Conducting capacity-building activities in the generation and application of climate products;
• Organization of climate outlook forums for the countries in the Greater Horn of Africa;
• Enhancement of interactions with users through user workshops and pilot application projects;
• Climate change monitoring, detection and attribution.
Summary
Drought affects more people than any other natural disaster and results in serious economic,
social and environmental costs. The development of effective drought monitoring, early warning
and delivery systems has been a significant challenge because of the unique characteristics of
drought. Significant strides have been made in recent years to improve the effectiveness of these
systems. With the increasing frequency and severity of drought in many regions of the world
and increased societal vulnerability, more emphasis is now being placed on the development of
drought preparedness plans that are proactive rather than reactive and emphasize risk-based
management measures. Improved drought monitoring is a key component of a drought
preparedness plan and a national drought policy. Early warning systems can provide decision
makers with timely and reliable access to information on which mitigation measures can be
based. There are many challenges to improving these systems, but a comprehensive, integrated
approach to climate and water supply monitoring is proving to be successful in many countries.

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