INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, VOL. 10,401405 (1990) 551.588.7: 551.524.36(536.

8)

ANALYSIS OF THE KUWAIT CITY URBAN HEAT ISLAND

HASSAN A. NASRALLAH

Environmental Protection Department, Ministry of Public Health, State of Kuwait, Kuwait

AND

ANTHONY J. BRAZEL A N D ROBERT C. BALLING, JR.

Laboratory of Climatology and Deparrment of Geography, Arizona State University. Tempe, Arizona 85287 USA

Received 24 April 1989

Revised 21 July 1989

ABSTRACT
Twenty-three years of maximum and minimum air temperature data are analysed for selected stations in and near Kuwait
City, Kuwait. The results of a series of statistical analyses reveal the general lack of a well-developed heat island in this
rapidly expanding urban area. This finding is in stark contrast to the identification of large heat islands in the growing
arid-land cities of North America. The similarities in the urban-rural landscape of the Kuwait City environment and its
close proximity to a large water body are suggested as explanations for the observed temporal and spatial temperature
patterns.

KEY WORDS Heat island Urban climate change Kuwait City

INTRODUCTION
Within the past several years, a number of investigators have revealed the existence of expanding, well-
developed heat islands in the rapidly growing urban centresin arid areas in North America (Hsu, 1984;Cayan
and DouglasJ984; Balling and Brazel, 1986a,b). Urbanization in these arid areas produces a transformation
of the natural desert environments into a complex set of commercial, residential, and industrial landscapes.
The intense solar loads and generally light surface winds of the arid regions combine to accentuate the local
climatic impact of the urban surfaces (Brazel and Johnson, 1980). Indeed, the well-documented heat island
associated with the recent explosive growth in Phoenix, Arizona serves as an excellent example of how local
climates in desert areas may respond to rapid urbanization (Hsu; 1984; Balling and Brazel, 1986a,b, 1988).
The population growth of Kuwait City, Kuwait is similar in magnitude to the trends recorded in Phoenix.
In 1957, the population of Kuwait City was 206,000 (Phoenix, 260,000), and by 1985, the population in
Kuwait City had grown to 1,697,000(Phoenix, 1,600,000).Yet, while the trends in population are similar, the
resulting landscapes are remarkably different.
The urban area of Kuwait City in 1951 was near the waterfront of Kuwait Bay on the Arabian Gulf and was
contained within a city wall; wood cabins, slums, and scattered nomadic tents were located on the periphery of
the walled area (Figure 1).The bulk of the area within the city wall consisted of barren, open sandy fields, and
a set of radial road patterns with numerous small settlements along the intersections. In the 1980s, open areas
within the first city wall were filled-in and the expansion of urbanized areas reached southward toward the
Kuwait International Airport (Ibrahim, 1982).Although greenbelts were instituted in some locations, they are
not widespread, leaving little vegetative cover across the urban landscape. When compared with Phoenix,
Kuwait City has (i) approximately one-half of total urbanized area, (ii) fewer trees and less irrigated turf, (iii)

0899-848 18/90/040401-05$05.00
0 1990 by the Royal Meteorological Society
402 H. A. NASRALLAH ET AL

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Figure 1. Map of study area showing the three climate stations used in the study. The southerly sequential wall development in Kuwait
City described in the text is also depicted.

similar building heights, (iv) a much wider use of local building materials (e.g. adobe), thereby minimizing a
thermal contrast between the city and the surrounding desert, and (v) close proximity to a large water body.
The purpose of this investigation is to identify changes in temperature patterns that may be associated with
the rapid growth in Kuwait City. Given the substantial differences in the morphology of Kuwait City when
compared with the arid-region cities of North America, significant differences in the heat island patterns may
be anticipated. Morphologically-induced urban canyon effects (Oke, 198 1; Brazel, 1987) may be raising the
local temperatures; however, the lack of contrast in the thermal properties between the desert and urban area
in Kuwait City may minimize the heat island despite the substantial growth in local population.

DATA DESCRIPTION
Three weather stations were chosen for analysis of the urban climate in the Kuwait City area (Figure 1). Al-
Roudatain is in a remote desert locale and serves as a regional reference site assumed to be unaffected by the
process of urban expansion. The site is located 93 km north of Kuwait City on a desert plain 34 m above sea-
level; the only features surrounding this site are a few oil wells. The Kuwait International Airport (55 m
elevation) is located 16.5 km inland from Kuwait City centre and is close to the rapidly expanding frontier of
urbanization in the region. Al-Shuwaikh (1 1 m elevation) is located near the coast in a light industrial and
residential sector about 7 km south-west of Kuwait City centre. All three sites have high-quality temperature
 URBAN HEAT ISLAND ANALYSIS 403

records extending from 1958 to 1980; unfortunately, the desert station at Al-Roudatain closed in 1981. We
restrict our analyses to the annual means of maximum and minimum temperatures at these three sites for the
23 years of common temperature measurements. We selected the annual temperature data because (i) monthly
data from several of the Kuwait stations were not readily available, and (ii) our results would be directly
comparable with results reported from analyses of other desert cities.

ANALYSES AND RESULTS

A series of descriptive statistics were generated for the 23 years of average maximum and minimum annual
temperatures at each of the three Kuwait stations. To identify the variations through time in the spatial
gradient in these temperatures, the differences between the remote desert (Al-Roudatain) and airport and
suburban (Al-Shuwaikh) stations were also determined.
The means and standard deviations of the maximum temperatures show the highest value at the more
continentally-controlled desert site and the lowest value at the suburban location near the Gulf (Table I). The
difference in the 23-year maximum temperature values between the desert and suburban site is statistically
significant at the 095 confidence level used throughout this study. The pattern for the minimum temperatures
is reversed, with the highest value at the suburban station and the lowest value in the desert; all differences in
the minimum temperatures at the three stations are statistically significant. These spatial temperature
patterns follow expectations based on the station locations with respect to the moderating influences of the
Gulf.
Because several of the trend-identification techniques require a normal distribution in the variables, each
time series array was tested for normality using the standardized coefficients of skewness and kurtosis (Siegel,
1956; Keeping, 1962).The results (Table I) indicate no such significant departures from normality in any of the
variables.
Two statistical procedures were used to identify the existence of any trends in the temperature data. The
first technique involved the calculation of the Mann-Kendall rank statistic, t, as;

where ni is the number of a subsequent terms in the time series exceeding the ith value and N is the number of
years of record. The value of z is compared with a test statistic determined as:

(z), = tg/- 9N (N- 1)

where t , is the probability point of the normal distribution appropriate for a two-tailed test. If the
Mann-Kendall rank statistic exceeds the value of the test statistic, a significant trend (either linear or non-
linear) is identified in the time series (Mitchell et a/., 1966).
The results of these procedures (Table I) reveal statistically significant upward trends in (i) the minimum
temperatures at the airport and suburban sites, and (ii) the difference in maximum temperatures between the
desert and suburban station. No significant trends were found in any of the other variables. The more familiar
Spearman rank-order correlation coefficients (Table I) relating each temperature variable to the year of
record generally indicate the same patterns found using the Mann-Kendall rank statistic. Linear regression
analysis was used to reveal the annual rate of change in each of the variables (Table I).

DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
The results from the analyses indicate only a modest heat island in the Kuwait City metropolitan area.
Although minimum temperatures were rising at a significant rate at the airport and suburban stations, an
increase in minimum temperatures at the remote desert station appears to have kept pace with the airport and
404 H.A. NASRALLAH ET A L

Table I. Selected statistics' for Kuwait maximum and minimum temperatures ("C)

Standard
Variable Mean deviation z1 Z2 z r b
Airport
Maximum 32.39 0.69 0.39 0.12 -011 -0.19 - 0024
Minimum 18.73 0.78 -0.36 -0.23 0.39b 0.57b 0.066b
Suburban (Al-Shuwaikh)
Maximum 32.07 0.66 -020 -0.88 -008 - 0 1 4 -0'014
Minimum 19.87 0.65 - 0.39 055 0.39b 0.60b 0057b
Desert (Al-Roudatain)
Maximum 32.15 0.76 - 0.79 -0.51 - 0.22 -0.37 -0.039
Minimum 17.89 1.08 -0.3 1 -0-59 0.21 0.35 0063
Airport-Desert
Maximum -036 0.47 0.12 - 097 025 0.19 0.015
Minimum 0.84 080 - 1.09 0.36 005 0.02 0.008
Suburban-Desert
Maximum - 068 046 0.6 1 -077 046b 0.40 0.027b
Minimum 1.98 0.93 -0.50 - 0.66 -0 0 3 -010 -0.014

'zl and z2 are the standardized coefficients ofskewness and kurtosis, T is the Mann-Kendall rank statistic, r is
the Spearman rank-order coefficient, and b is the regression coefficient ("C year-').
bStatistically significant values.

suburban sites (Table I). As a result no statistically significant temporal trends were identified in the variables
depicting the differences in minimum temperatures between the desert and urbanized locations.
The difference in maximum temperatures between the suburban and desert stations showed a significant,
upward trend through time and may be suggestive of a growing heat island. This possible heat-island effect
had reached the suburban site near the city's centre and produced a differential warming of 0.027 "C year-
The effect at the airport station located farther from the city centre was less, with a differential increase in
temperature of only 0.015 "C. Inspection of the regression coefficients (Table I) shows maximum temperatures
at all three stations to be decreasing; the differential warming is largely related to the drop in maximum
temperatures at the desert location. Possibly, some form of regional cooling is occurring in the maximum
temperatures (Nasrallah, 1988) while the Gulfs moderating effects are retarding the cooling in the urban and
suburban locations.
Nonetheless, the heat island in Kuwait City appears to be far less in magnitude than would be expected
given (i) the total population of the city and (ii) the rapid rate of urbanization over the study period. Rates of
average annual temperature increases directly attributed to urban warming at a variety of dryland cities are
listed in Table 11. Comparative values for Kuwait City can be determined by averaging the differential
temperature trends for the maximum and minimum temperatures. The airportdesert decadal average value
is +0.12 "C while the decadal value for the Al-Shuwaikh desert is +0.07 "C. Both of these values indicating
that the urban warming effect in Kuwait City is lower than the values determined for the dryland cities of
North America. The low rate of urban temperature change in Kuwait City may be explained by (i) the position
of the city along the moderating winds of a large water body, (ii)little greenbelt development and fewer trees in
contrast with many other desert cities, (iii) lower overall building heights throughout the residential and
central city locations, and (iv) a wider use of locally derived building materials with similar thermal properties
to the surrounding desert terrain. Our study cannot fully resolve the underlying explanations given the
available climatic data and the general lack of field data from the area. However, a planned programme that
will integrate satellite data, extensive field measurements, and modelling efforts (e.g. Henry et al., 1989) will
help us develop a better understanding of how urbanization in this desert setting affects local climatic
conditions.
 URBAN HEAT ISLAND ANALYSIS 405

Table 11. Decadal urban warming rates for selected dry-

land citiesa

Urban 1980
Warming Population
City (“C decade-’) ( x lo6)

Bakersfield, California 0.27 0.1 1

Kuwait City, Kuwait 007-0.1 2 1.70
Los Angeles, California 0.30 2.97
Las Vegas, Nevada 0.2 1 016
Mexico City, Mexico 0.70 18.00
Phoenix, Arizona 0.22 1.50
Sacramento, California 0.17 0.28
San Diego, California 0.31 0.86
Tucson, Arizona 0.38 0.33
~~ ~

“Data from Jauregui (1973), Cayan and Douglas (1984), and

Kukla et al. (1986).

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