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1 Basic concepts & definitions Tuesday 18th October, 2011
PROBABILITY
Probability is the chance that something
will happen.
Many of the decisions we make in life are
based on knowing the likelihood of
something happening.
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Probability 1 Basic concepts & definitions Tuesday 18th October, 2011
Using Probability information
Research studies use
probability to decide whether
at work or not a new drug is worth
putting on the market.
Planning a road trip on a
motorbike? If you are
at home involved in an accident it is
15 times more likely to be
lifethreatening than if you
are in a car. Take the car.
The language of likelihood
certain, definite 1 1
unlikely 0.25 ¼
highly improbable
impossible 0 0
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Probability 1 Basic concepts & definitions Tuesday 18th October, 2011
Possible Values for Probabilities
Probability Limits
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Probability 1 Basic concepts & definitions Tuesday 18th October, 2011
If your answer to a probability question is
2.5 or −½ or 120% . . . . . .
sorry, it is wrong.
Probability Terms
Any activity where the outcome is
Experiment uncertain
Outcome A possible result of the experiment
A list of all the possible outcomes
Sample Space of an experiment
Event Part or a subset of the sample space
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Probability 1 Basic concepts & definitions Tuesday 18th October, 2011
Example 1
Tossing a coin twice
Experiment Head = H, Tail =T
Some outcomes:
Outcome HH, TH, ....
Sample Space S = {HH, TT, HT, TH}
Some events:
Event E1 = {one Head only}
E2 = {A Head & a Tail}
E3 = {Both heads}
Example 2
Experiment Tossing a die
Some outcomes:
Outcome 1, 5, 6, .....
Sample Space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Some events:
Even numbers, E1 = {2, 4, 6}
Event Odd numbers, E2 = {1, 3, 5}
The number 1, E3 = {1}
At least 3, E4 = {3, 4, 5, 6}
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Probability 1 Basic concepts & definitions Tuesday 18th October, 2011
Example 3
Drawing one card from
Experiment
a full pack
Outcome
Sample Space S = {any one of the 52 cards
in the pack}
Event
A Pack (or Deck) of 52 Playing Cards
Clubs
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Probability 1 Basic concepts & definitions Tuesday 18th October, 2011
Basic Probability Definition
no. of favourable outcomes
P(E) = no. of possible outcomes
n(E)
P(E) =
n(S)
Important Assumption
Random Selection
The fundamental assumption underlying
the Basic Probability Definition is that of
randomness.
Choosing must be done without regard to any
characteristics of the individual members of the
population so that each has an equal chance of
being selected.
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Probability 1 Basic concepts & definitions Tuesday 18th October, 2011
Examples
A girl draws one card at random from a normal
pack of playing cards.
P(a Queen) =
P(a black picture card) =
P(a diamond or a red Ace) =
P(a spade or a black Honour card) =
Experiment: Tossing a Coin
P(Head) = no. of favourable outcomes
no. of possible outcomes
1
= 2
We are referring to the theoretical probability.
That is, what we expect to happen.
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Probability 1 Basic concepts & definitions Tuesday 18th October, 2011
Find a coin and toss it 10 times.
Will you get exactly 5 Heads?
What happened? Did you get 1, 2, 5, 7, 9 heads?
Take whatever number you got and put it over 10.
You have just found your own experimental probability.
It is also the relative frequency.
The Law of Large Numbers
If an experiment is repeated many times, then the
more times the experiment is repeated, the more likely
it is that the relative frequency (experimental
probability) of any particular event will be close to the
theoretical probability of that event.
Tossing a coin
Head = H, Tail =T
Coin Toss Simulation click on the blue button link
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Probability 1 Basic concepts & definitions Tuesday 18th October, 2011
Rarely will the proportion be exactly 1/2.
Instead, it will fluctuate around 0.5,
with the fluctuations slowly getting smaller.
Complementary Events
The complement of event E, denoted by E,
consists of all outcomes in which event E does
not occur.
P(E) is read as the probability of "not E".
P(E) + = 1
P(E)
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Probability 1 Basic concepts & definitions Tuesday 18th October, 2011
Example
Forecast for the rest of Monday
Sunny. Winds westerly averaging up to 20 km/h, tending light easterly along
the coast during the afternoon.
City Centre
Sunny.
Max
23 Chance of any rainfall:
10%
What is the probability that it will not rain?
Example
All the letters of the alphabet are written on 26
cards and placed in a hat. I draw one card out
of the hat at random.
What is the probability that it is not a vowel?
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Probability 1 Basic concepts & definitions Tuesday 18th October, 2011
Example
The digits 8, 7 and 4 are written on separate
cards which are placed in a pile and shuffled.
One card is chosen at random from the pile and placed on a
table. A second card is chosen at random and placed after
the first. Then the last card is placed at the end.
What is the probability that the 3digit number formed is not
even?
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Example
A spinner has 12 equal sectors colored yellow, green,
blue, red and white.
What is the probability of landing on a sector that is not
red after spinning this spinner?
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Probability 1 Basic concepts & definitions Tuesday 18th October, 2011
LANGUAGE
chance likelihood
experiment outcome
event sample space
possible outcomes favourable outcomes
random selection complementary events
relative frequency experimental probability
Law of Large Numbers theoretical probability
pack or deck of cards suit
spades, clubs hearts, diamonds
King, Queen, Jack picture card
die, dice Honour card
FORMULAE
P(E) = no. of favourable outcomes
no. of possible outcomes
n(E)
P(E) =
n(S) P(E) + = 1
P(E)
0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1
HOMEWORK
Text p.125 Ex.5(a) All except Q.1,2,5,6,16
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