Danalyn Balbas

ISDS 361A
Professor Daoji Li
May 15, 2020
Project Proposal
Introduction/Background:
Par, Inc. is a manufacturing company that distributes golf balls and other equipment. In hopes to
increase sales, their team wants to introduce a golf ball with an improved coating to yield further
driving distances. In order to do this, both the current golf ball as well as the new golf ball have
been put to a distance test, using a mechanical hitting machine as a controlled variable to isolate
the main component of the balls’ outer coating. The experiment conducted 40 automated swings
for each golf ball, recording all of their respective distances. Using the data, we can analyze the
difference between the two in order to formulate a decision about the new product.

How:
Both golf balls provided varied distances, ranging from 250 yards to 289 yards. Seeming this is a
new product to attract more sales, we would hope is it better than the current one; to compare the
two datasets, I will conduct a upper-tailed hypothesis test to prove that the average driving
distance of the new golf ball is greater than the average driving distance of the current golf ball.
Also, we are working with sample datasets, so I will be using the t-test method to find the p-
value since the population standard deviation is unknown.

Business Questions:
Once conducted on, the data tables will reflect if Par, Inc. has an effective new product. Using
the data, we can find the mean and sample standard deviation of both golf balls, and by using the
t-test to find the p-value of their differences, we can construct a confidence interval to ensure that
the probability of having a newer golf ball yield further distances than the current one are high.
The dataset results will also determine if the experiment provided enough effective components
to compare; do we need a bigger sample size of the tested golf ball distances?

Hypotheses Test:
Ho: M1-M2  0
Ha: M1-M2  0
M1: The mean driving distance of the current golf ball
M2: The mean driving distance of the new golf ball

Current: mean= 270.275, s= 8.753

New: mean= 267.5, s= 9.897

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 Final Report Analysis
The Current Golf Ball:
As we can see from the graph above, the current golf ball provided distances ranging from 255
yards to 289 yards, averaging at 270.275 with a sample standard deviation of 8.753. The golf ball
also had multiple modes, at 263, 272, and 275. When computing the interquartile range (IQR), to
isolate the middle 50% of the dataset, majority of the distances yielded between 263 yards and
275 yards, in correlation to the standard deviation, majority of the distances were close to the
average distance of 270.275.

Since we do not have the population standard deviation, we can formulate a 95% confidence
level interval using the t-test and the formula: point estimator +/- (critical value * standard error
of the point estimator). Plugging the data into it, we can solve for the upper and lower limits by
270.275 +/- (2.023 * 1.384); from the calculations, we are 95% confident that the population
average driving distance of the current golf ball is between 267.476 yards and 273.074 yards.

The New Golf Ball:

Looking at the same graph, the new golf ball provided distances ranging between 250 yards and
289 yards. The average distance was lower than the current golf ball, yielding 267.5 yards with a
sample standard deviation of 9.897. The larger standard deviation means the distances of the new
golf ball are not as close to the average distance; the new golf ball yields a more volatile range.
Similar to the current golf ball, the new one also provided multiple modes, but only at 262 and
263. Computing the IQR again, the middle 50% of the dataset was between 262 and 275.5, once
again reiterating the fact that the new golf ball does not provide the same consistency of
distances.

Completing the same process as previously to formulate a 95% confidence level interval, we get
the equation: 267.5 +/- (2.023 * 1.565). From the calculations, we are 95% confident that the
population average driving distance of the new golf balls is between 264.335 yards and 270.665
yards.

Analysis of the Comparison:

When formulating a 95% confidence level interval for the difference between the two population
means, we once again use the t-test and the following formula: (sample mean 1 – sample mean 2)
+/- (critical value * standard error). After computing, we get 2.775 +/- (1.665 * 2.089) which
states that we have a 95% confidence level that the difference between the driving distances of
the two golf balls is -0.708 yards and 6.254 yards. This is a pretty wide range and changing the
sample size could change this for a more accurate depiction.

We can also compare other aspects of the golf balls. The current golf ball has three modes at 263,
272, and 275, which is a great component to have in a golf ball, especially since two of those
modes are higher than the average distance. The new golf ball also had multiple modes at 262
and 263, but this is not as beneficial because the ball is showing consistent distances at a lower
yardage, even lower than its average distance. Another aspect to compare is that the current golf
ball yielded a distance of 280 or higher seven times in the trial while the new golf ball displayed
it six times. Although the new golf ball performed almost equally in producing long distances, it
also provided more distances in the shorter end; this makes it very volatile and inconsistent.

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 Hypotheses Test:
We will be using the p-value method in testing these hypotheses.

Ho: M1-M2  0
Ha: M1-M2  0
M1: The mean driving distance of the current golf ball
M2: The mean driving distance of the new golf ball

Since we do not know the population standard deviation, we will use the t-test to find the p-
value. By computations, t=1.328 and the p-value = 1- P(t<1.328) = 0.094. First, we compare the
p-value to , which is 0.05 with a 95% confidence level. Since 0.094 > 0.05, we do not reject
Ho.

Recommendation:
Numerically, we may be inclined to think the new golf ball performed less than the current golf
ball, but as we can see by the p-value, the difference is not significant so we cannot reject the
null hypothesis.

Taking into consideration the possibility for a type 2 error, my recommendation would be to
conduct a following experiment with a bigger sample size in hopes of isolating the variance, and
truly testing if the difference is significant. If the next experiment provides the same conclusion,
Par, Inc. should continue with the new golf ball release as it is a comparable product to the
current one and may increase sales for the company.

This study source was downloaded by 100000853130512 from CourseHero.com on 10-19-2022 11:49:17 GMT -05:00

https://www.coursehero.com/file/63426610/ISDS-361A-Analytics-Project-Finalpdf/
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