ALEGRIA, GIO RENZ Q.

ASSESSMENT 1 M3
CE123-2/A1

1.
Percentage wide modal distribution for each mode
A W R C Utility Probability Modal
Fn distribution
Value (%)
Auto 6 1 25 300 -7.5 0.003 0.30%
Rail 7 10 15 75 -3.125 0.235 23.54%
Bus 10 15 35 60 -4.1 0.089 8.88%
Bike 1 0 45 10 -2.075 0.673 67.28%
100.00%

 Subsidizing rail and bus by 50%, so rail and bus (out of pocket cost) is halved
 Encouraged biking by constructing bike paths and thus reducing biking time by
20%,
 Increasing auto costs (through higher parking charges) by 10%.
New A, W, R, C parameters and utility function
A W R C
Auto 6 1 25 330
Rail 7 10 15 37.5
Bus 10 15 35 30
Bike 1 0 36 10
New modal distribution

A W R C Utility Probability Modal

Fn Distribution
Value (%)
Auto 6 1 25 330 -8.1 0.001 0.10%
Rail 7 10 15 37.5 -2.375 0.306 30.65%
Bus 10 15 35 30 -3.5 0.100 9.95%
Bike 1 0 36 10 -1.715 0.593 59.30%
100.00%

2.

Cost of travel by car = ���� = 0.05(25) + 0.2(22) + 0.2(6) = 6.85

Cost of travel by bus = ���� = 0.05(35) + 0.04(8) + 0.07(6) + 0.2(8) = 4.09
Cost of travel by train = ������ = 0.05(17) + 0.04(14) + 0.07(5) + 0.2(6) = 2.96

e−6.85
Case 1: Probability of choosing car, = e−6.85 +e−4.09 = 0.059
e−4.09
Probability of choosing bus, = e−6.85+e−4.09 = 0.9403
e−6.85
Case 2: Probability of choosing car, = e−6.85 +e−2.96 = 0.02003
e−2.96
Probability of choosing train, = e−6.85+e−2.96 = 0.979

Case 1:
Car = 4200(0.0596) = 250.32 Bus = 4200(0.9403) = 3949.546

Case 2:
Car = 4200(0.02) = 84.00 Train = 4200(0.979) = 4115.8

Hence, train will attract more trips, if it is introduced.