Binomial distribution

A binomial distribution can be thought of as simply the probability of a SUCCESS or FAILURE outcome

in an experiment or survey that is repeated multiple times. The binomial is a type of distribution that
has two possible outcomes (the prefix “bi” means two, or twice). For example, a coin toss has only two
possible outcomes: heads or tails and taking a test could have two possible outcomes: pass or fail.

The first variable in the binomial formula, n, stands for the number of times the experiment runs.
The second variable, p, represents the probability of one specific outcome.

For example, let’s suppose you wanted to know the probability of getting a 1 on a die roll. if you were
to roll a die 20 times, the probability of rolling a one on any throw is 1/6. Roll twenty times and you
have a binomial distribution of (n=20, p=1/6). SUCCESS would be “roll a one” and FAILURE would be
“roll anything else.” If the outcome in question was the probability of the die landing on an even
number, the binomial distribution would then become (n=20, p=1/2). That’s because your probability
of throwing an even number is one half.
 Source
https://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/binomial-theorem/binomial-distribution-formula/
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/binomialdistribution.asp#:~:text=The%20binomial%20distribution%20is%
mial-distribution-formula/
nomial%20distribution%20is%20a,set%20of%20parameters%20or%20assumptions.
Characteristics

There are only two possible outcomes Success or faliure ~ Success p and Failure q
Outcomes are independent 1 2
Probability of success is the same.
The experiment takes place n times and we want to determine the probabilityt of x successes

Formula

Factorial n! n = Number of trials

5! = 5*4*3*2*1 x or r = number of successes
120 x ~ random variable
0! = 1
Probability distributions: differences
Binomial : p(success) does not change, events are independent, sample size and want to calculate a certain number of succe
Poisson: average value, no limits for the calculations, p(0) …....... P(large number)
Normal: average and a standard deviation

What do they have in common?

Questions assuming X is a random variable meaning number of people that will get infected
P( X = 5 ) Exactly 5 people get infected P(X = 5) or P(X = 8)
P(X >= 5) At least (minimum) 5 people will get infected (5 …........ )
p(X<=5) AT most 5 people will get infected ( 0, …....., 5)
certain number of successes (we have a limit)
 Probability of having either 3 girls or 4
x = # number of girls P(X = x) x = # number of girls
0 0.0625 Answer 25% 0
1 0.25 1
2 0.375 2
3 0.25 3
4 0.0625 4
1
Answer = P( X =3) + P (X = 4)
Answer =
y of having either 3 girls or 4 girls?
P(X = x) P( X <= x)
0.0625 0.0625
0.25 0.3125
0.375 0.6875
0.25 0.9375
0.0625 1

P( X =3) + P (X = 4)
0.3125
x = # number of girl P(X = x)
0 0.25
1 0.5
2 0.25
1
 x = # numbeP(X = x) at least = minimum at least 3 girls = 3 girls and 4 girls
0 0.0625 1/16 at most = maximum
1 0.25 1/4 Answer = 0.25 + 0.0625 = 0.3125
2 0.375
3 0.25 1/3
4 0.0625
1 0.0625

b) Find the probability that the family has at most 3 girls.

x P(X < = x)
3 0.9375

2.5
Example fraction vs simplified fraction 3
2/18 1/9 2.5 = 2
girls = 3 girls and 4 girls Expected value = n*p
Assuming 100 families, what would be
0.25 + 0.0625 = 0.3125 the expected value of having exactly 3
girls?

n= 100
P(X =3) = 0.25

Expected value = 25
Multiplication rule
p(success) = 1/6

Answer = 9.9229030127521E-08
0.0000099%

Binomial probability function

n=9
p(success) = 1/6
x = exactly 9 3's

Answer = 9.9229030127521E-08
Binomial Decimal Percentage
n (trials) = 10 Answer = 0.137448 13.74%
p(success) = 0.82 or 82%
x (# of successes) = exactly 10 women
Binomial
n (# of trials) = 180 Answer = 0.180488 18% CTRL + s
p(success) = 0.015 0.1805
x (# trials) = 1
Binomial a) b)
n = trials = 50 x = # successes 5 x <= 5 successes
p(success) = 0.041 Answer 0.037311 Answer

c)
x >= 1 successes
Answer 0.876709
 5
0.983905
Expected values and standard deviation ~ Binomial probability distribution
Expected value = n*p Standard deviation = square root ( n * p * q)
where n = # trials where q = # probability of failure
p = probability of success q=1-p

a)
n = 12 Standard deviation = 1.709737 b)
p = 0.58 n = 10
Expected value = 6.96 p = 0.58
x = 10
0.050156