The Axioms of

Probability
S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©
What is
Probability? Probability is a
function, defined in
sample space, that
takes values in (0,1).

The probability of the event

A is denoted by P(A)

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

 The Axioms of Probability
Theorem 1 For mutually exclusive events 𝐴1 and 𝐴2

𝑃 𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 = 𝑃 𝐴1 + P[𝐴2 ]

Theorem 2 If 𝐴 = 𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ … ∪ 𝐴𝑚 and 𝐴𝑖 ∩ 𝐴𝑗 = ∅ 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑖 ≠ 𝑗 then

𝑃 𝐴 = ෍ 𝑃[𝐴𝑖 ]
𝑖=1

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

The Axioms of Probability
Theorem 3

The probability measure 𝑃 ∙ satisfies

𝑃 ∅ =0

𝑃 𝐴𝐶 = 1 − 𝑃[𝐴]

For any 𝐴 and 𝐵 (not necessarily mutually exclusive)

𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃[𝐴 ∩ 𝐵]

𝐴 ⊂ 𝐵 then 𝑃 𝐴 ≤ 𝑃[𝐵]

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

The Axioms of Probability
Theorem 4

The probability of an event 𝐵 = 𝑠1 , 𝑠2 , … , 𝑠𝑚 is

the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes
contained in the event:

𝑃 𝐵 = ෍ 𝑃[ 𝑠1 ]
𝑖=1

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

The Axioms of Probability
Theorem 5

For an experiment with sample space 𝑆 = 𝑠1 , … , 𝑠𝑛 0 in

which each outcome 𝑠𝑖 is equally likely

1
𝑃 𝑠𝑖 = 1≤𝑖≤𝑛
𝑛

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

 Example: Two Dice Event = both of Dice show the same number

Suppose the experiment in

Sample Space = {(1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), … , (6,6)}
question is rolling two dice.
Here some events:
A = Their sum is 7
B = the first die show a large number than the second
C = They show the same

A = {(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)}

B = {(2,1), (3,2), (3,1), (4,3), (4,2), … , (6,1)}
C = {(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)}

Probability event = P(A) = P(C) = 6/36 and P(B) = 15/36

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

 Example 1
Roll a six-sided die in which all
faces are equally likely. What is
the probability of each outcome?
Find the probabilities of the
events:
“Roll 4 or higher,”
“Roll an even number”, and
“Roll the square of an integer”.
S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©
Example : Answer The probability of each outcome is
1
𝑃 𝑖 = for 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 6
6
The probabilities of the three events are

1
𝑃 𝑅𝑜𝑙𝑙 4 𝑜𝑟 ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑒𝑟 = 𝑃 4 + 𝑃 5 + 𝑃 6 =
2

1
𝑃 𝑅𝑜𝑙𝑙 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 = 𝑃 2 + 𝑃 4 + 𝑃 6 =
2

1
𝑃 𝑅𝑜𝑙𝑙 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑒𝑟 = 𝑃 1 + 𝑃 4 =
3

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

Example 2
Ricardo's oers customers two kinds of
pizza crust, Roman (R) and Neapolitan (N).
All pizzas have cheese but not all pizzas
have tomato sauce. Roman pizzas can
have tomato sauce or they can be white
(W); Neapolitan pizzas always have tomato
sauce. It is possible to order a Roman pizza
with mushrooms (M) added. A Neapolitan
pizza can contain mushrooms or onions
(O) or both, in addition to the tomato
sauce and cheese. Draw a Venn diagram
that shows the relationship among the
ingredients N, M, O, T, and W in the menu
of Ricardo's pizzeria.

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

 Example 2 : Answer
At Ricardo's, the pizza crust is either Roman (R) or
Neapoli-tan (N). To draw the Venn diagram on the right,
we make
the following observations:
The set {R,N} is a partition so we can draw the Venn
diagram with this partition.
• Only Roman pizzas can be white. Hence W ⊂ R.
• Only a Neapolitan pizza can have onions. Hence O ⊂
N.
• Both Neapolitan and Roman pizzas can have
mushrooms so that event M straddles the {R,N}
partition.
• The Neapolitan pizza can have both mushrooms and
onions so M ∩ O cannot be empty.
• The problem statement does not preclude putting
mushrooms on a white Roman pizza. Hence the
intersection W ∩ M should not be empty.

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

 Example 3
An integrated circuit factory has three
machines X, Y , and Z. Test one integrated
circuit produced by each machine. Either a
circuit is acceptable (a) or it fails (f). An
observation is a sequence of three test
results corresponding to the circuits from
machines X, Y , and Z, respectively. For
example, aaf is the observation that the
circuits from X and Y pass the test and
the circuit from Z fails the test.

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

• What are the elements of the sample space of this experiment?
• What are the elements of the sets
ZF = {circuit from Z fails} ;
XA = {circuit from X is acceptable}:
• Are ZF and XA mutually exclusive?
• Are ZF and XA collectively exhaustive?
• What are the elements of the sets
C = {more than one circuit acceptable} ;
D = {at least two circuits fail} :
• Are C and D mutually exclusive?
• Are C and D collectively exhaustive?

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

Example 3 : Answer

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

 Example 4
Shuffle a deck of cards and turn over the first card. What is the sample
space of this experiment? How many outcomes are in the event that the
first card is a heart?

Example 4 : Answer

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

 Example 5
Find out the birthday (month and day but not year) of a randomly chosen
person. What is the sample space of the experiment? How many outcomes
are in the event that the person is born in July?

Example 4 : Answer

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

 Example 6
Find [p] B ]. in each case:
(a) Events A and B are a partition and p] A = 3 [p] B ].
(b) For events A and B, p] A ∪ B = p] A and p] A ∪ B ] = 0.
(c) For events A and B, p] A ∪ B = p] A ∪ B − [p] B ].

Example 6 : Answer

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

 Example 7
You roll two fair six-sided dice; one die is red, the other is white. Let 𝑅𝑖 be the event that the red die rolls i.
Let 𝑊𝑗 be the event that the white die rolls j.
(a) What is?
(b) What is the P𝑃[𝑅3𝑊2] [𝑆5] that the sum of the two rolls is 5?

Example 7 : Answer

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

 Example 8
Choose a card from a well-shuffled deck of cards. Let A be the event “the selected card is a
heart,” and let B be the event “the selected card is a face card.” Let the sample space S
consist of one point for each of the 52 cards. If the deck is really well shuffled, each point in
S can be presumed to have probability 1/52. The event A contains 13 points and the event B
contains 12 points, so P(A) = 13/52 and P(B) = 12/52. But the events A and B have three sample
points in common, those for the King, Queen, and Jack of Hearts. The event A ∪ B is then
the event “the selected card is a Heart or a face card,” and its probability is

Example 8 : Answer

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

A card is again drawn from a well-shuffled deck.
Example 9
Consider the events
A: the card shows an even number (2, 4, 6, 8, or 10),
B: the card is a Heart, and
C: the card is black.
We use a sample space containing one point for each of
the 52 cards in the deck

Example 9 : Answer

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

Example 10
Example 10 : Answer

Throw a pair of fair dice.

What is the probability that
the dice show different
numbers? Here, it is
convenient to let A be
the event “the dice show
different numbers.”

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

30’ A fair coin is tossed five times. Find the probability of obtaining
Exercises
1 (a) exactly three heads.
(b) at most three heads.

A manufacturer of pickup trucks is required to recall all the trucks manufactured in a given year for the repair
of possible defects in the steering column and defects in the brake linings. Dealers have been notified that 3% of
the trucks have defective steering only, and that 6% of the trucks have defective brake linings only. If 87% of the 2
trucks have neither defect, what percentage of the trucks have both defects?

A hat contains tags numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. A tag is drawn from the hat and it is replaced, then a second tag
is drawn. Assume that the points in the sample space are equally likely.
3 (a) Show the sample space.
(b) Find the probability that the number on the second tag exceeds the number on the first tag.
(c) Find the probability that the first tag has a prime number and the second tag has an even number. The number
1 is not considered to be a prime number.
S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©
 Exercises
A fair coin is tossed four times.
4 (a) Show a sample space for the experiment, showing each possible
sequence of tosses.
(b) Suppose the sample points are equally likely and that a running
count is made of the number of heads and the number of tails tossed.
What is the probability the heads count always exceeds the tails count?
(c) If the last toss is a tail, what is the probability an even number of
heads was tossed?

In a sample space of two events is it possible to have P(A) = 1/2, P(A ∩ B) = 1/3 and P(B) = 1/4? 5
In testing the water supply for various cities in a state for two kinds of impurities commonly found in
6 water, it was found that 20% of the water supplies had neither sort of impurity, 40% had an impurity of
type A, and 50% had an impurity of type B. If a city is chosen at random, what is the probability its water
supply has exactly one type of impurity?

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

Exercises A die is loaded so that the probability a face turns up is
proportional to the number on that face. If the die is
thrown, what is the probability an even number occurs?
7
The entering class in an engineering college has 34%
who intend to major in Mechanical Engineering, 33% who
indicate an interest in taking advanced courses in
Mathematics as part of their major field of study, and
28% who intend to major in Electrical Engineering, while
23% have other interests. In addition, 59% are known to
major in Mechanical Engineering or take advanced
8
Mathematics while 51% intend to major in Electrical
Engineering or take advanced Mathematics. Assuming
that a student can major in only one field, what
percent of the class intends to major in Mechanical
Engineering or in Electrical Engineering, but shows no
interest in advanced Mathematics?

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©