Session 4 - Introduction To Probability - MZS 2020

Week 1
Introduction to
Probability
S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

What is a set?
A set is a collection of objects, which
are the elements of the set .
If 𝑆 is a Set and 𝑥 is an element of 𝑆, we write

𝑥∈𝑆
If a Set can have no elements, we called it the empty set
we denoted by ∅ or {}

What is a subset?
If every elements of a set 𝑆 is also
an element of a set 𝑇, we say that
𝑆 is a subset of 𝑇
we write
S ⊂ 𝑇 or T ⊃ 𝑆
If S ⊂ 𝑇 and T ⊂ 𝑆 , the sets
are equal and we write
S=𝑇
What is a
universal set?
A universal set contains all objects
that could conceivably be of interest
in a particular context
Denoted by
Ω
Note that
𝑐
Ω =∅
What is a
complement?
The complement of a set S, with
respect to the universe Ω, is the set
𝑥 ∈ Ω | 𝑥 ∉ 𝑆 of all elements of Ω
that do not belong to S
Denoted by
𝑆 𝑐 or 𝑆 ′

Set Operation
Union Intersection
Union of two sets 𝑆 and 𝑇 is The intersection of two sets 𝑆
the set of all elements that and 𝑇 is the set of all elements
belong to 𝑆 or 𝑇 (or both) that belong to both 𝑆 and 𝑇
Denoted by Denoted by
S∪𝑇 S∩𝑇
S ∪ 𝑇 = 𝑥 𝑥 ∈ 𝑆 or 𝑥 ∈ 𝑇 } S ∩ 𝑇 = 𝑥 𝑥 ∈ 𝑆 and 𝑥 ∈ 𝑇 }

The Algebra of Set
S∪𝑇 =𝑇∪𝑆 S ∪ (𝑇 ∪ 𝑈) = (𝑆 ∪ 𝑇) ∪ 𝑈
(𝑆 𝑐 )𝑐 = 𝑆 S ∪ (𝑇 ∩ 𝑈) = (𝑆 ∪ 𝑇) ∩ (𝑆 ∪ 𝑈)
𝑆∪Ω=Ω 𝑆 ∩ 𝑆𝑐 = ∅
S ∩ (𝑇 ∪ 𝑈) = (𝑆 ∩ 𝑇) ∪ (𝑆 ∩ 𝑈) 𝑆∩Ω=𝑆
Applying Set Theory
to Probability
Mutually Exclusive Sets
A collection of sets 𝐴1,…, 𝐴𝑛 is mutually exclusive if and only if

A
𝐴𝑖 ∩ 𝐴𝑗 = ∅, 𝑖≠𝑗
The word disjoint is sometimes used as a synonym for mutually exclusive

B

Applying Set Theory to Probability
Collectively Exhaustive Sets
𝑨𝟏 𝑨𝟐 A collection of sets 𝐴1,…, 𝐴𝑛

is collectively exhaustive if
and only if
𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ … ∪ 𝐴𝑛 = 𝑆
𝑨𝟑 𝑨𝟒

Applying Set Theory
Partition to Probability
A collection of sets 𝐴1,…, 𝐴𝑛 is a
𝑨𝟏 𝑨𝟐 𝑨𝟑 𝑨𝟒
partition if it is both mutually
exclusive and collective exhaustive

Example 1

Question
Example 2
Answer

Probability in various context in daily life
Experiment Possible Outcomes
Roll a die One of the faces (1,2,3,4,5,6)
Flip a coin Head or tail
All possible arrangements of 52

Deal a bridge hand cards into four equal parts
Any ordering of the runners

Run a horse race

What is
Sample Space?
A sample space is a set of
all the possible outcomes
from an experiment.
A sample space of the
event A is denoted by S
Example 3
(Choose two people at random from a group of five people.)
Denoting the five people as A, B, C, D, and E, we find, if we
disregard the order in which the persons are chosen, that
there are ten possible samples of two people:

Example 4
Yolanda and Zach are running for president of the student association. One thousand
students will be voting. We will eventually ask questions like, What is the probability that Yolanda
beats Zach by at least 100 votes? But before actually finding this probability, first identify
(i) the sample space and
(ii) the event that Yolanda beats Zach by at least 100 votes.
(i) The outcome of the vote can be denoted as (x, 1000−x), where x is the number of votes for Yolanda, and
1000 − x is the number of votes for Zach. Then the sample space of all voting outcomes is
Ω = {(0, 1000), (1, 999), (2, 998), . . . , (999, 1), (1000, 0)}.
(ii) Let A be the event that Yolanda beats Zach by at least 100 votes. The event A consists of all outcomes in
which x − (1000 − x) ≥ 100, or 550 ≤ x ≤ 1000.
That is, A = {(550, 450), (551, 449), . . . , (999, 1), (1000, 0)}.

Example 5
Joe will continue to flip a coin until heads
appears. Identify the sample space and the
event that it will take Joe at least three
coin flips to get a head.
The sample space is the set of all sequences
of coin flips with one head preceded by some
number of tails. That is,
Ω = {H, TH, TTH, TTTH, TTTTH, TTTTTH, . . .}
The desired event is A = {TTH, TTTH, TTTTH, . . .}

Note that in this case both the sample space and
the event A are infinite.

What is
event?
An event is
a subset of
a sample
space

Events
Subset The event occurs whenever event F does not occurs
Equality The events occurs whenever event E occurs but event F does not
Intersection The occurrence of event E implies the occurrence of event F, and vice versa
Union Event when E occurs, F also occurs (all of the sample point of E are contained in F)
Complement The event occurs whenever at least one of event E and F occurs
Difference The event occurs whenever event E and event F occur simultaneously

Events s
Subset E = F
Equality 𝐸𝑐 E F
Intersection E − F
Union E ∩ F
Complement E ⊆F
Difference E ∪ F

Events s
Subset E = F
F
Equality 𝐸𝑐
E
Union E ∩ F
Complement E ⊆F Event when E occurs, F also occurs (all of

the sample point of E are contained in F)
Difference E ∪ F

Events s s
Subset E = F
E F
Equality 𝐸𝑐
F E
Union E ∩ F
Complement E ⊆F The occurrence of event E implies the

occurrence of event F, and vice versa
Difference E ∪ F

Events s
Subset E = F
Union E ∩ F
Complement E ⊆F The event occurs whenever event E

and event F occur simultaneously
Difference E ∪ F

Events s
Subset E = F
Union E ∩ F
Complement E ⊆F The event occurs whenever at

least one of event E and F occurs
Difference E ∪ F

Events s
Subset E = F
Equality 𝐸𝑐 F
Intersection E − F 𝐹𝑐
Union E ∩ F
Complement E ⊆F The event occurs whenever event

F does not occurs
Difference E ∪ F

Events s
Subset E = F
Equality 𝐸𝑐 F
Intersection E − F E
Union E ∩ F
Complement E ⊆F The events occurs whenever event E

occurs but event F does not
Difference E ∪ F

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Week 1

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

If 𝑆 is a Set and 𝑥 is an element of 𝑆, we write

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

A collection of sets 𝐴1,…, 𝐴𝑛 is mutually exclusive if and only if

The word disjoint is sometimes used as a synonym for mutually exclusive

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

𝑨𝟏 𝑨𝟐 A collection of sets 𝐴1,…, 𝐴𝑛

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

Flip a coin Head or tail

All possible arrangements of 52

Any ordering of the runners

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

Ω = {H, TH, TTH, TTTH, TTTTH, TTTTTH, . . .}

The desired event is A = {TTH, TTTH, TTTTH, . . .}

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

Complement E ⊆F Event when E occurs, F also occurs (all of

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

Complement E ⊆F The occurrence of event E implies the

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

Complement E ⊆F The event occurs whenever event E

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

Complement E ⊆F The event occurs whenever at

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

Complement E ⊆F The event occurs whenever event

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

Complement E ⊆F The events occurs whenever event E

S1 Business Mathematics – Maria Zefanya S (2017) ©

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