621651511.

xlsx

Crystal Ball Report - Full

Simulation started on 12/1/2020 at 11:49 AM
Simulation stopped on 12/1/2020 at 11:49 AM

Run preferences:
Number of trials run 10,000
Monte Carlo
Random seed
Precision control on
Confidence level 95.00%

Run statistics:
Total running time (sec) 34.30
Trials/second (average) 292
Random numbers per sec 875

Crystal Ball data:

Assumptions 3
Correlations 0
Correlation matrices 0
Decision variables 0
Forecasts 1

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Forecasts

Worksheet: [AirbnbIPO.xlsx]Valuation output

Forecast: Value of equity in common stock Cell: B34

Summary:
Entire range is from $17,591,165.32 to $100,382,036.52
Base case is $36,119,953.55
After 10,000 trials, the std. error of the mean is $93,719.62

Statistics: Forecast values

Trials 10,000
Base Case $36,119,953.55
Mean $36,654,212.05
Median $35,115,477.78
Mode ---
Standard Deviation $9,371,962.35
Variance ###
Skewness 1.04
Kurtosis 4.83
Coeff. of Variation 0.2557
Minimum $17,591,165.32
Maximum $100,382,036.52
Range Width $82,790,871.20
Mean Std. Error $93,719.62

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Forecast: Value of equity in common stock (cont'd) Cell: B34

Percentiles: Forecast values

0% $17,591,165.32
10% $26,150,864.49
20% $28,790,132.88
30% $30,952,250.81
40% $32,981,840.31
50% $35,114,898.23
60% $37,463,931.87
70% $40,181,915.04
80% $43,595,272.32
90% $49,120,327.64
100% $100,382,036.52

End of Forecasts

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Assumptions

Worksheet: [AirbnbIPO.xlsx]Input sheet

Assumption: Compounded Gross Bookng growth rate - years 2-5 = · Airbnb Cell: B28

Aswath Damodaran:
I don't have a crystal ball but you should look at
a. Revenue growth in your company in recent years
b. Your company's revenues, relative to the overall market size and larger players in the sector.
Suggestion: Check your revenues in year 10 against the overall market and see what market
share are you giving your company. Check your company's revenues against other companies
in the sector.
Note that this number can be negative for a declining firm.

Triangular distribution with parameters:

Minimum 15.00%
Likeliest 25.00%
Maximum 35.00%

Assumption: Initial cost of capital = · Airbnb Cell: B35

Aswath Damodaran:
Enter the current cost of capital for your firm. If you don't know what it is, you can use the
built-in worksheet to compute it.

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean 6.50%
Std. Dev. 0.45%

Assumption: Target pre-tax operating margin (EBIT as % of sales in year 10) = · Airbnb
Cell: B30

Aswath Damodaran:
You should start by looking at your company's current pre-tax operating margin but also look
at the average for your industry. (You can check my estimates of industry averages in the last
worksheet on this spreadsheet.)

Lognormal distribution with parameters:

Location 15.00%
Mean 25.00%
Std. Dev. 4.00%

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End of Assumptions

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