Mortality

Mortality refers to deaths that occur in a population. Death is the permanent disappearance of all evidence
of life at any time after birth has taken place. A death can occur only after a live birth. It is notable that the
definition of death excludes deaths prior to live births. Mortality is linked to many factors, such as, age,
sex, marital status, occupation, education, etc.

Crude Death Rate (CDR)

It is the number of deaths per 1,000 midyear population in a given year. This rate shows the frequency of a
class of events throughout the entire population, without regard to any of the various smaller groupings that
are sometimes used for better observation.

Ranges of CDR:

 Least Developed: 14.9

 Developing: 7.8
 More Developed: 10.2

D
CDR= P ×K
Where,
D is the total number of deaths during a year.
P is the total population at the middle of the year, and
K is 1,000.

Crude death rate for a place of urban area of Nepal can be computed as follows:
Given,
Number of deaths in 2001 = 22,345
Midyear population in 2001 = 2,862,650
Crude death rate, CDR=?

D
×K
P
Now, CDR =
 22,345
×1,000
= 2,862,650
= 7.81 deaths per thousand midyear population

Age-specific Death Rate (ASDR)

It is defined as the number of deaths in a given age group during a year per 1,000 midyear population of the
same age group. The formula for Age Specific Death Rate, ASDRa is
ASDRa=nDx/nPx*1,000

Where, nDx is the number of deaths in the age group x during a year, and nPx is the midyear population in
the same age group.

Calculation of Age Specific Death Rate (ASDR)

Age Number of Deaths Population ASDRa
Males Females Males Females Males Females
0-4 513 345 151086 145020 3.40 2.38
5-14 124 76 323055 309044 0.38 0.25
15-24 480 164 284975 275333 1.68 0.60
25-44 740 456 394120 384235 1.88 1.19
45-64 3525 2014 289798 293195 12.16 6.87
65+ 8213 8014 118990 160515 69.02 49.93

Infant Mortality Rate

Infant mortality rate is defined as the number of infant deaths under one year of age per thousand live
births. Symbolically, formula for infant death rate is as follows:
D0
×K
Infant Mortality Rate, IMR = B
Where,
D0 is number of deaths under one year of age in a year;
B represents live births in the same year; and
K is a constant, generally expressed as 1,000.
Range of IMR:

 Least Developed: 102

 Developing: 56
 More Developed: 8

Child Mortality Rate, CMR

Child mortality rate is defined as the number of deaths per thousand population aged 1-4 years.
CMR=D1-4/P1-4*1,000
Where,
D1-4 is number of deaths among population aged 1-4 years, and
P1-4 is number of population aged 1-4 years.

Under five Mortality Rate

It is defined as the number of deaths per thousand population aged 0-4 years.
Under five Mortality Rate=D0-4/P0-4*1,000
Where,
D0-4 is number of deaths among population aged 0-4 years, and
P0-4 is number of population aged 0-4 years.

Mortality Rates under One Year of Age

Because of the very high level of mortality in the first days and weeks of life and the difference in the
causes accounting for infant deaths at the earlier and later ages of infancy, the infant mortality rate may be
usually be broken up into a rate covering the first month or so and a rate for the remainder of the year. The
rate for the first period is called the neonatal mortality rate and the rate for the second period is called the
post-neonatal mortality. The neonatal mortality rate is defined as the number of deaths of infants under 4
weeks (28 days) or under 1 month of age during a year per 1,000 live births. Formula for this is:

D ∠ 1 month
×K
Neonatal Mortality Rate = B
Where,
D ∠ 1 month indicates number of deaths of infants under 4 weeks of age
(28 days) in a year;
B represents number of live births in the same year; and
 K is a constant, generally expressed as 1,000.

Likewise, the postneonatal mortality rate is defined as the number of infant deaths at 4 through 51 weeks of
age or 1 through 11 months of age in a year per 1,000 live births during the same year. Formula for this is:
D 1−11 months
×K
Postneonatal mortality rate = B

Where,
D1-11 months represents number of deaths at 1 through 11 months of age in a year.
B indicates number of live births in the same year.
K is a constant, expressed as 1,000.

Perinatal Mortality Rate is defined as the number of deaths per thousand neonatal plus fetus death.
LFD + NN
×1,000
LFD + LB
Perinatal Mortality Rate =
perinatal deaths per 1,000 live births and fetal deaths of 28 or more weeks gestation

Maternal Mortality Ratio and Rate

The maternal mortality ratio is the number of women who die as a result of complications of pregnancy or
childbearing in a given year per 100,000 live births in the same year. It is notable that deaths due to
complications spontaneous or induced abortions are included. Formula for this is:

NMD
×K
Maternal Mortality Ratio, MMR = B
Where,
NMD indicates the number of maternal deaths due to complications of spontaneous or induced
abortions in a year;
B is the number of live births in the same year; and
K is a constant, generally expressed as 100,000.

Maternal mortality rate is also used if we specify the denominator by using the number of women of
childbearing age instead of live births in the population. According to this concept,
 NMD
f
Maternal Mortality Rate= P15−49 ×K

Where,
NMD indicates the number of maternal deaths due to complications of spontaneous or induced
abortions in a year;
f
P 15−49 is the number of women aged 15-49 years; and
K is a constant, generally expressed as 1,000 or 100,000.

Crude Rate of Natural Increase

This is the excess of births over deaths per thousand populations in a given year. This can be expressed as
=B-D/P*1,000
Where, B is number of births and D is number of deaths. P is total population.
Measure Numerator Denominator Unit
Crude death Total number of deaths during a Mid-year deaths per 100,000
rate given time year population population.
Age-Specific Number of deaths in a given age Mid-year per 100,000 specific
Death Rate group during a year per 1,000 population age year 
midyear population of the same
age group.
Child Number of deaths per thousand Mid-Year per 1,000 live births
Mortality Rate Population
population aged 1-4 years.

Under 5 Number of deaths per thousand Mid-year per 100,000 live

Mortality Rate Population births
population aged 0-4 years.

Neonatal Number of deaths among children Number of live deaths per 1000 live
mortality rate < 28 days of age during a given births during the births
time year same time year

Postneonatal Number of deaths among children Number of live per 100,000 live
mortality rate 28–364 days of age during a given births during the births
time year same time year

Infant Number of deaths among children Number of live deaths per 1000 live
mortality rate < 1 year of age during a given births during the births
time year same time year

Maternal Number of deaths assigned to Number of live Deaths per 100,000

mortality ratio pregnancy-related causes during a births during the live births
given time year same time year
 Maternal number of women who die as a Mid-year Deaths per 100,000
Mortality Rate result of complications of population population
pregnancy or childbearing in a
given year per 100,000 Population
in the same year.
Perinatal Number of deaths per thousand Fetal Deaths of 28 deaths per 1,000 live
Mortality Rate neonatal plus fetus death of 28 or or more weeks births and fetal
more weeks gestation gestation deaths of 28 or more
weeks gestation

Logistic Growth of Population;

Exponential growth is possible only when infinite natural resources are available; this is not the case in the
real world. Charles Darwin recognized this fact in his description of the “struggle for existence,” which
states that individuals will compete (with members of their own or other species ) for limited resources.
The successful ones will survive to pass on their own characteristics and traits (which we know now are
transferred by genes) to the next generation at a greater rate: a process known as natural selection. To
model the reality of limited resources, population ecologists developed the logistic growth model.

Carrying Capacity and the Logistic Model

In the real world, with its limited resources, exponential growth cannot continue indefinitely. Exponential
growth may occur in environments where there are few individuals and plentiful resources, but when the
number of individuals becomes large enough, resources will be depleted, slowing the growth rate.
Eventually, the growth rate will plateau or level off. This population size, which represents the maximum
population size that a particular environment can support, is called the carrying capacity, or KK.

The formula we use to calculate logistic growth adds the carrying capacity as a moderating force in the
growth rate. The expression “K – N” is indicative of how many individuals may be added to a population at
a given stage, and “K – N” divided by “K” is the fraction of the carrying capacity available for further
growth. Thus, the exponential growth model is restricted by this factor to generate the logistic growth
equation:
rmax( K −N )N
dN=
K
When the population is tiny, N is very small compared to K. The (K−N)/K terms becomes approximately
(K/K) or 1 gives us back the exponential population growth rate. On the other hand, when N is
large, (K−N)/K come close to zero, which means that population growth will be slowed greatly or even
stopped. 
Thus, population growth is greatly slowed in large populations by the carrying capacity \(K\). This model
also allows for negative population growth or a population decline. This occurs when the number of
individuals in the population exceeds the carrying capacity (because the value of (K-N)/K is negative).
A graph of this equation yields an S-shaped curve; it is a more-realistic model of population growth than
exponential growth. There are three different sections to an S-shaped curve. Initially, growth is exponential
because there are few individuals and ample resources available. Then, as resources begin to become
limited, the growth rate decreases. Finally, growth levels off at the carrying capacity of the environment,
with little change in population size over time.
Role of Intraspecific Competition
The logistic model assumes that every individual within a population will have equal access to resources
and, thus, an equal chance for survival. For plants, the amount of water, sunlight, nutrients, and the space to
grow are the important resources, whereas in animals, important resources include food, water, shelter,
nesting space, and mates.
In the real world, the variation of phenotypes among individuals within a population means that some
individuals will be better adapted to their environment than others. The resulting competition between
population members of the same species for resources is termed intraspecific competition (intra- =
“within”; -specific = “species”). Intraspecific competition for resources may not affect populations that are
well below their carrying capacity as resources are plentiful and all individuals can obtain what they need.
However, as population size increases, this competition intensifies. In addition, the accumulation of waste
products can reduce an environment’s carrying capacity.
Fertility:
Fertility refers to the actual performance of live births women have. Fertility is the quality of being able to
produce children. As a measure, the fertility rate is the average number of children that a woman has in her
lifetime and is quantified demographically. The term fertility is synonymous with natality in referring to
birth that influences the population changes in a population. The terms fertility, natality and births may be
total births, including live births but they come increasingly to refer to live births only. In measuring
fertility, we use births, meaning live births only.

While fertility can be measured, fecundity cannot be. Demographers measure the fertility rate in a variety
of ways, which can be broadly broken into "period" measures and "cohort" measures. "Period" measures
refer to a cross-section of the population in one year. "Cohort" data on the other hand, follows the same

people over a period of decades. Both period and cohort measures are widely used.
Period measures:

 Crude birth rate (CBR) - the number of live births in a given year per 1,000 people alive at the
middle of that year. One disadvantage of this indicator is that it is influenced by the age
structure of the population.
 General fertility rate (GFR) - the number of births in a year divided by the number of women
aged 15–44, times 1000. It focuses on the potential mothers only, and takes the age distribution
into account.
 Child-Woman Ratio (CWR) - the ratio of the number of children under 5 to the number of
women 15–49, times 1000. It is especially useful in historical data as it does not require
 counting births. This measure is actually a hybrid, because it involves deaths as well as births.
(That is, because of infant mortality some of the births are not included; and because of adult
mortality, some of the women who gave birth are not counted either.)
Cohort measures
Total fertility rate (TFR) - the total number of children a woman would bear during her lifetime if she were
to experience the prevailing age-specific fertility rates of women. TFR equals the sum for all age groups of
5 times each ASFR rate.

 Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR) - the number of girl babies a synthetic cohort will have. It
assumes that all of the baby girls will grow up and live to at least age 50.
 Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) - the NRR starts with the GRR and adds the realistic assumption
that some of the women will die before age 49; therefore they will not be alive to bear some of
the potential babies that were counted in the GRR. NRR is always lower than GRR, but in
countries where mortality is very low, almost all the baby girls grow up to be potential mothers,
and the NRR is practically the same as GRR. In countries with high mortality, NRR can be as
low as 70% of GRR. When NRR = 1.0, each generation of 1000 baby girls grows up and gives
birth to exactly 1000 girls. When NRR is less than one, each generation is smaller than the
previous one. When NRR is greater than 1 each generation is larger than the one before. NRR is
a measure of the long-term future potential for growth, but it usually is different from the
current population growth rate.
Fecundity: Fecundity is the potential to reproduce and the how much a single person can reproduce i.e. how
many children a single woman can give birth to. 

The following are the differences between the fertility and fecundity:

Explanation:

 Fertility is the natural ability of the organism to reproduce whereas fecundity is the potential of the
organism to reproduce.
 Fertility is the process by which the fusion of gametes occurs, whereas the fecundity is the ability of
the organism to produce gametes required for fertilization.
 The nutritional, endocrine pattern and behavioral patterns may influence the fertility, whereas
environmental and genetic factors influence the fecundity.
Crude Birth Rate (CBR): The crude birth rate is defined as the number of live births occurred in a year per
thousand midyear population. The adjective crude is used because none of the structural characteristics of
the population that might affect the number of births that occur in the time period, such as the age
distribution or the composition by sex, is taken into account, only the total population size. CBR is
commonly expressed in 1,000 population

Ranges of CBR:

 Least Developed: 40.4

 Developing: 23.1
 More Developed: 11.2

Crude birth rate is also a ratio of total live births to the total population multiplied by 1,000. The formula
B
×K
for calculation of CBR is P
Where,
B is the total number of births registered during a given year,
P is the total population at the middle of the given year (July 1), and
K is constant, expressed as 1,000.

Advantages
CBR is a useful measure to approximate numbers of births when limited information available. - For
example, if population = 20 million, CBR = 13 per thousand, births next year ≈ 260,000
Can be easily calculated
Disadvantages
Denominator is the total population of all ages, but childbearing is concentrated among women aged 15-49
>> The proportional size of this group can vary considerably between populations, making comparison
difficult
CBR “is confounded by age structure” >> CBR is not used as an accurate measure of fertility
Cannot be used to compare the levels of fertility of any two populations because they may differ widely in
the age-sex composition
General Fertility Rate:
General fertility rate is refined measure of fertility over crude birth rate. This is defined as the number of
births per 1,000 females aged 15-49 years. In other words, it is the ratio of total yearly registered live births
to the female population of “child bearing ag” i.e. from 15 to 49 years. It restricts the denominator of
potential mothers by excluding all men and large group of women not exposed to the child bearing by age.
To calculate GFR, the total number of births, regardless of age of mother, is employed in the numerator and
the female population aged 15-49 years is employed in the denominator. This can be calculated by the
following formula:

B
f
×K
General Fertility Rate, GFR= P15−49

B is the number of births born to women aged reproductive span.

f
P a is the number of female population aged 15-49 years.
K is a constant, expressed as 1,000.
Advantages:
Can be easily computed
Can be computed with limited data.
Disadvantages:

Problematic for international or time comparisons

This problem is that the fertile ages – nominally 15-49 years – is 35 years wide and so within that range
there can be substantial differences in age structure between populations. Because fertility is concentrated
at certain ages populations can appear to have different levels of fertility simply because they have different
age structures between ages 15-49 years. For international or secular comparisons one wants to have a
measure that is independent of age structure and the GFR is not quite there. We need to move on to the
Total Fertility Rate and a precursor to that is the construction of Age-specific Fertility Rates.
Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)
Age Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR): An age specific fertility rate is defined as the number of births to
women of a given age group per 1,000 women in that age group. It is the refinement over CBR and GFR by
distinguishing the women of the child bearing age according to their ages and similarly subdividing the
births according to the ages of mother.
Symbolically, it can be shown as follows:

Ba
f
×K
P
ASFRa= a

Where,
ASFRa is the age specific fertility rate of age group a;
Ba is the number of births at exact age group a; and
Pfa is the number of female population aged group a.

Age specific fertility rates of different age groups based on the given number of births and female
population can be computed from the following information.

Advantages:

Age-specific fertility rates enable analysis of the pattern of fertility by age of women and analysis of
changes in the timing of childbearing.

Age-specific fertility rates are required for calculation of fertility measures such as the total, gross, and net
reproduction rates. They are also required as an input in cohort-component population projections.

Disadvantages:

Age-specific fertility rates require detailed data on the number of births by age or age group of mother and
data on the number of women of childbearing age by age or age group, data that are seldom available in
developing countries.

Age-specific fertility rates cannot be directly used to calculate population growth rates or natural increase
rates.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

The total fertility rate is the sum of the age specific fertility rates (ASFR) of women in each five year age
group from 15 to 44 or 49 years.

The total fertility rate (TFR) of a population is the average number of children that would be born to a
woman over her lifetime if:
 1. She was to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through her
lifetime, and
2. She was to survive from childbirth until the end of her reproductive life.

As the total fertility rate is generally expressed as per woman, the sum of age specific fertility rates is
divided by 1,000. It is notable that it is not necessary to divide the sum of ASFR if ASFR is calculated per
female.
Total fertility rate is defined as the number of births per woman in her reproductive life span. It is
calculated by using following formula:

5∑ fa
TFR= 1,000

Where,
fa is the age-specific fertility rate of women aged group a.

Pros. The TFR is the most widely used fertility measure for two main reasons: (1) it is unaffected by
differences or changes in age-sex composition, and

(2) it provides an easily understandable measure of hypothetical completed fertility. 

Cons. 

The TFR for a given year does not indicate how many additional children an average woman of any
selected age will actually have over her remaining reproductive lifetime. It would do so only if the age-
specific fertility rates of that year remained constant over the woman's lifetime.

When age-specific fertility rates are changing, such as when women are delaying births from their 20s to
their 30s, age-specific fertility rates–and thus the TFR–would be depressed for a time and then rise again
when women begin to have children at the older age. Hence the TFR may be a poor measure of the
completed fertility of women at or near the end of their

Gross Reproduction Rate, GRR

There are several ways to calculate gross reproduction rate based on the available fertility information.
Gross reproduction rate may be directly computed from total fertility rate multiplying it by the proportion
of the female births in the calendar year for which it is computed. The gross reproduction rate (GRR) is the
average number of daughters a woman would have if she survived all of her childbearing years, which is
roughly to the age of 45, Indeed, the gross reproduction rate is the proportion of female births to the total
births multiplied by total fertility rate. It shows the average number of female children born to women
living through the child bearing ages (i.e. 15-49 years) assuming no mortality. TFR measures the total
number of children a cohort of women will have whereas GRR measures the number of daughter female
will have. Suppose GRR is 3; if a female child is born at that time and survive through her child bearing
period then she will give birth to 3 female children in her turn on the average.
Symbolically,

Bf
t
×TFR
GRR= B (Proportion of female births to the total births multiplied by TFR)

Where,
f
B is the number of female births in a year;
t
B is the number of total births in the same year; and
TFR is the total fertility rate.

Pros. The gross reproduction rate, like the total fertility rate, translates other measures of fertility into a
clear result: in this case, the number of daughters that a cohort of women is likely to produce in their
lifetimes.

Cons. This rate adds little information to the TFR, which is a more widely used measure. The GRR, like the
TFR, may be affected by changes in the timing of births even when the total number of lifetime births per
woman is not changing.

It also doesnot consider the mortality rate of women.

Net Reproduction Rate, NRR
The net reproduction rate is the average number of daughters that would be born to a woman if she passed
through her lifetime from birth conforming to the age specific fertility and mortality rates of a given year.
In other words, it is the measure of the number of daughters that a cohort of new born girl babies will bear
during their life time assuming a fixed schedule of fertility rates and a fixed set of mortality rates. This rate
is like the GRR, but it is always lower because it takes into account the fact that women will die before
completing their childbearing years. The net reproduction rate indicates the number of daughters ever born
to a cohort of women, if they give birth according to the fixed schedule of age specific fertility rates and
age specific mortality rates up to the end of child-bearing period. NRR 1 means exact replacement. NRR
above 1 means that population is more than replacing itself. NRR below 1 means that the population is not
replacing itself. For example, if NRR = 1.5, the next generation would be 50 percent larger than the present
generation; if NRR = 0.8, it would be 20 percent smaller.
 Bf
t
×TFR
NRR = B ×S (Proportion of female births to the total births multiplied by TFR and life table
survival rate)
Where,
S is life table survival rate. If S is 0.9 then, NRR is calculated as follows:

Pros. The NRR precisely measures the reproductivity of a population by taking into account the level of
fertility and the likelihood that women will survive from birth to each childbearing age.

Cons. The NRR requires detailed data on fertility and female life-table values up to age 50.

Child Women Ratio:

The child-woman ratio of a population is defined as the number of children under age 5 per 1,000 women
ages 15-44 or 15-49 in a population in a given year. 
Child/Woman Ratio = living children aged 0 - 4
women aged 15 - 49
It is normally a figure below one – considerably below one for low fertility countries, just under one for
high fertility countries. This may seem a low figure for high fertility countries but even in these countries
more than two children below 5 at any one time is relatively uncommon and this will be offset by numbers
of very young women with no children and a considerable number of older women with no children under
age 5. High fertility countries are also likely to have higher rates of child mortality, which would further
reduce the ratio.
Pros:
It is also used demographically as a measure of "youngness" in a population and is useful for that purpose.
Another advantage of its simplicity is that it can be constructed from census data alone; it does not require
information about births – but that means that it is not a true fertility measure.
Cons:
Its problem as a true measure of fertility is with the numerator – it misses children who have died. In a high
mortality situation numbers of these could be substantial and fertility will therefore be underestimated.
So as a fertility measure it is rather rough-and-ready but it can still tell you about the burden of children in a
community. 
Population Momentum:
Population momentum is defined as the ratio of the size of the population at that new equilibrium level to
the size of the initial population. Population momentum is a consequence of the demographic transition.
Population momentum explains why a population will continue to grow even if the fertility rate declines.
Population momentum occurs because it is not only the number of children per woman that determine
population growth, but also the number of women in reproductive age. Population momentum usually
occurs in populations that are growing. Due to population momentum, a country’s population can continue
growing for another 70 years once replacement level fertility is reached.
Example: Malaysia is a great example. At just over 30 million people, this Southeast Asian nation reached
replacement level fertility around the year 2000 (down from a 6-child average in the 1950s). Yet, with 25
percent of its population under age 15, Malaysia is expected to grow until 2070 (according to UN
projections), at which time the country’s under-15 cohort will have dropped to 15 percent of the population.
Cause: Population momentum is typically caused by a shift in the country's demographic
transition. When mortality rates drop, the young survive childhood and the aging population live
longer. Fertility rates remain high, causing the overall population size to grow. According to population
momentum, even if high fertility rates were immediately replaced with replacement level fertility rates, the
population would continue to grow due to the pre-childbearing population entering childbearing years.
For the a population to have an absolute zero amount of natural growth, the US National Library of
Medicine National Institutes of Health suggests that three things must occur.
1. Fertility rates must level off to the replacement rate (the net reproduction rate should be 1). If the fertility
rate remains higher than the replacement rate, the population would continue to grow.
2. Mortality rate must stop declining, that is, it must remain constant.
3. Lastly, the age structure must adjust to the new rates of fertility and mortality. This last step takes the
longest to complete.
Implications:

Population momentum has implications for population policy for a number of reasons.
1. With respect to high-fertility countries (for example in the developing world), a positive population
momentum, meaning that the population is increasing, states that these countries will continue to grow
despite large and rapid declines in fertility.
2. With respect to lowest-low fertility countries (for example in Europe), a negative population momentum
implies that these countries may experience population decline even if they try to increase their rate of
fertility to the replacement rate of 2.1. For example, some Eastern European countries show a population
shrinkage even if their birth rates recovered to replacement level. Population momentum can become
negative if the fertility rate is under replacement level for a long period of time.
3. Population momentum shows that replacement level fertility is a long-term concept rather than an
indication of current population growth rates. Depending on the extant age structure, a fertility rate of two
children per woman may correspond to short-term growth or decline.
4. Another implication of population momentum is its effect on the labor force; more specifically the
distribution of the labor force. We established earlier that population momentum occurs when a population
continues to grow despite the replacement fertility level being met. Meaning that there are more children
being born. When there are more children being birthed for that time being until the child is able to work
they become dependents meaning that they don't do much to "contribute" to their society. Which leads to
an unfavorable dependency ratio. When the children reach the age to work that countries dependency ratio
will change and become favorable.
Calculation:
To calculate population momentum for population A, a theoretical population is constructed in which
the birth rate for population A immediately becomes replacement level. Under such conditions, the
population will eventually stabilize into a stationary population, with no year-to-year changes in age-
specific rates or in total population. The population momentum is calculated by dividing this final total
population number by the starting population. Momentum, Ω, can be expressed as:
Ω=( b e 0 ) Q
In this equation, b is the crude birth rate while eo is the life expectancy at birth. Q is the total number of
births per initial birth.

Migration:
In-migration rate: It is number of in-migrants per thousand population in a given year. This can be
measured as
In-Migration Rate = I/P×1000
Where,
I indicates number of in-migrants and P denotes mid-year population.
Out-migration rate:
It is number of out-migrants per thousand population in a given year. This can be measured as
Out-migration Rate= O/P×1000
Where,
O is number of out-migrants and P is mid-year population.

It is notable that net-migration can be calculated by reducing out-migrants from in-migrants within the
country. It is number of net-migrants per thousand midyear population.
Immigration Rate
The immigration rate is the number of immigrants arriving at a destination per 1,000 population at that
destination in a given year. This can be measured as
Immigration Rate = Number of immigrants/Total Mid-year Population ×1000

Emigration Rate
The emigration rate is the number of emigrants departing an area of origin from a country per thousand
population at that area of origin in a given year. It is measured as
Emigration Rate= Number of emigrants/Total Mid-year Population×1000
= Em/P multiplied by 1000

Gross Migration Rate

Gross migration rate is the total number of migrants per thousand population involved in the migration
process. Volumes of internal and international migration are added while calculating gross migration rate.
We can use the following formula for calculating gross migration rate.
Gross Migration Rate = Im + Em/P × 1000 (in the case of international migration)
Gross Migration Rate = I + O/P × 1000 (in the case of internal migration)
Gross Migration Rate = I + O+Im +Em/P × 1000 (in the case of internal and international migration)

Net Migration
The net effect of immigration and emigration on a country’s population (increase or decrease) is referred to
as net migration. This shows the net effect of immigration and emigration on a country’s population. This
can be measured as
Net-migration Rate= Im-Em/P ×1000
Where,
Im is number of immigrants and Em is number of emigrants. P is midyear population.

Net Migration Rate = Number of Immigrants – Number of Emigrants + Number of Inmigrants – Number of
Outmigrants/ Total Midyear Population *1000
Net Migration Rate= Number of inmigrants - Number of Outmigrants+ Number of Immigrants-Number of
Emigrants/Total Midyear Population multiplied by 1000.
Vital Statistics Method
Vital Statistics Method is concerned with vital events registered in local government body. Births, deaths,
and migration are registered when these events occur. When we have these information in a year, we can
calculate net migration using the following vital statistics method.

M = (Pt – Po) – (B-D)

Where,
M is net-migration,
Pt is current population,
Po is former population,
B is births, and
D is deaths.

National Growth Rate Method

National growth rate method deals with migration volume relating national population and regional or
specific population. This method follows the following formula:

Mi = [(P’i – P0i /P0i ) - (P’T – P0 T/ P0 T)] K

Where,
Mi is migration rate of region i,
P0i is regional initial population of region i,
P’i is regional final population of region i,
P0 T is national initial population,
P’T is national final population, and
K is a constant, expressed as 1000.
Nuptiality: Concept and Measurement
In societies, where child bearing takes place mostly within marriage, timing of marriage marks the
beginning of women's exposure to child bearing. In other words, age at marriage in most of the societies
begins a woman's exposure to the risk of child bearing. Age at marriage is a major determinant of fertility
in such a population. As a result, age at marriage and proportion of women never married are important
proximate determinants of fertility. In general, higher the proportion of married couples in a population,
higher is the chance of giving birth to babies if people do not use contraception. In contrast to this, number
of widows/widowers, divorced people, especially in younger ages affect fertility as these proportions
reduce fertility rate. There are some measures of nuptiality as follows:

Crude Marriage Rate (CMR)

It is defined as number of marriages per thousand midyear population. It is measured as follows:
CMR = M/P* K
Where, M represents number of marriage in a population, P represents total midyear population. K is a
constant, generally expressed as 1000.

General Marriage Rate (GMR):

It is defined as number of marriages per thousand population aged 15 years and above. Formula for this is
as follows:
GMR = M/P15+ *K
Where, M stands for number of marriages and P15+ represents total midyear population aged 15 years and
above.

Age Specific Marriage Rate (ASMR)

It is defined as number of marriages per thousand women (or men separately) of age 'a'. It is measured as
follows:
ASMR = Ma / Wa *K
Where, Ma is number of marriages that occurred at age 'a' and W a is per thousand midyear population of
women aged 'a'. K is a constant, expressed as 1000.
Total Marriage Rate (TMR): It is defined as total number of marriages a person will have at the end of
his/her marriageable age if he/she follows the given schedule of marriage. It can be measured as follows:
TMR = ∑a=15-65 Ma / Pa
Where, Ma represents number of marriages of male, or female or third gender and Pa is either male or
female or third gender.

Life Table:

Life table is a mathematical sample which gives a view of death in a country and is the basis for measuring
the average life expectancy in a society. It tells about the probability of a person dying at a certain age, or
living upto a definite age.

A life table (also called a mortality table or actuarial table) is a table which shows, for each age, what the
probability is that a person of that age will die before their next birthday ("probability of death"). In other
words, it represents the survivorship of people from a certain population. They can also be explained as a
long-term mathematical way to measure a population's longevity. Tables have been created by
demographers including Graunt, Reed and Merrell, Keyfitz, and Greville.

A life table is a statistical tool that describes the mortality conditions at a particular point of time among the
population. It summarises the mortality experience of a population and yields information about longevity
and life expectation. Keyfitz defined a life table as “a scheme for expressing the forms of mortality in terms
of probabilities”. According to Professor Bogue, “the life table is a mathematical model that portrays
mortality conditions of a particular time among a population and provides a basis for measuring longevity”.
Similarly, Professor G.W. Barclay defined the life table as “a life history of a hypothetical group of cohort
of population, as it is diminished gradually by deaths. The record begins at the birth of each individual
member, and continues until all have died”.
By studying various definitions, it is known that a life table provides the complete statistical description of
mortality. It shows the number of survivors at different ages of a group of individuals of the same cohort or
generation. It is viewed as a single statistical model containing combined mortality rates of a population at
different ages. A life table does not contain the effect of the age distribution of the actual population. The
entire life table is created from age specific mortality rates from which other measures like the probability
of dying, survivorship and life expectancy are derived.
According to Bogue, “The life table is a mathematical model that portrays mortality condition at a
particular time among a population and provides a basis for measuring longevity. lt is based on age specific
mortality rates observed for a population for a particular year.”

Barclay defines it in these words:

“The life table is a life history of a hypothetical group or cohort of people, as it is diminished gradually by
death. The record begins at the birth of each member and continues until all died.”

Thus a life table is a mathematical device which shows the life span of persons up to a particular age or
their probable date of death relates to a cohort of people born at the same time until they die.

A life table can be constructed for a country and an area on the basis of sex, occupation, race, etc.

A life table is a table which shows, for a person at each age, what the probability is that they die before
their next birthday. From this starting point, a number of statistics can be derived and thus also included in
the table is:
 the probability of surviving any particular year of age
 the remaining life expectancy for people at different ages
 the proportion of the original birth cohort still alive.

Concepts:
The life table is one of the most prominent discoveries in demography. These tables play a central role in
demographic studies like fertility, mortality and migration, as well as population growth and structure.
These tables are mainly used to measure the mortality level of the population involved. It examines the toll
of mortality, measuring life expectancy and the extent to which death diminishes population numbers as
ages rises. A life table shows whether populations are achieving the goal of long life. Sometimes the life
table is viewed as a ‘death
table’; it is equally concerned with survival and length of life. Computation of the life table is the oldest
technique of measuring mortality experience. The concept of a life table was first originated by John
Graunt (1620-74), although the term ‘life table’ was a later innovation. John Graunt mentioned the concept
of life table, for the first time, in his book “ Natural and Political Observations …. Made upon the Bills of
Mortality” in 1662. He presented the life table of the population of England in this book. John’s concept of
the table using mortality data was used to
obtain the proportion surviving at each age, as it was evidently intended. Later, William Petty made
improvements in this table scientifically. Euler, Shishu Milk, Naip and Kuisines are some of the
contributors in improving and developing more scientific life tables. The astronomer Edmund Halley, in
1693, was the first to employ correct mathematical methods to calculate a life table, using vital statistics
collated by Caspar Neumann of Breslau. Many countries have developed their own life tables based on the
population database system established either with strong vital registration systems or population censuses
or specific surveys.
Types of Life Tables:
Life tables are of two types:

The Cohort or Generation Life Table: It “summarises the age specific mortality experience of a given birth
cohort (a group of persons all born at the same time) for its life and thus extends over many calender
years.” Also known as a generation life table, the cohort life table determines the overall mortality rate of a
group of people with the same year of birth (a cohort). It shows the probability for an individual from the
given cohort dying at each age over the course of their lifespan.

The cohort life table is based on age-specific probabilities of one dying, which are determined using a
combination of mortality data for the specific cohort from past years long with estimates about mortality
rates for the cohort in the future.

The cohort life table takes into account evolutions in observed and estimated mortality rates for the cohort
throughout its lifetime, and as a result, it is regarded as a more accurate and appropriate measure of how
long a person of a certain age would be expected to live on average.

Since mortality rates constantly change over time as a result of the development in the global health of
populations and can be negatively impacted by deadly global pandemics, cohort life tables are typically
preferred over period life tables.

It should be noted, however, that cohort life tables typically involve an element of subjectivity, as it
requires estimates of future mortality rates in their calculations and is therefore vulnerable to any errors that
may plague the projections.

It does result in period life tables to be used in favor of cohort life tables to compare life expectancies of
different population sub-groups or predict how long people with generally good health will live.

“Period Life Table: summarises the age specific mortality conditions pertaining to a given or other short
time period.” The period life table determines mortality rates for a specific population during a defined
period of time, such as a single year or a group of years. It also assumes that mortality rates apply
throughout the remainder of a person’s life, and as such, it does not take into consideration any future
developments or changes to mortality rates.

Period life tables are useful in measuring mortality rates over a specific period and enable statistics to be
drawn objectively by comparing mortality rates and trends over time both among different regions of a
country, as well as among different countries.
Type of life tables based on age details
Further, a life table can be classified based on the age detail or length of the age interval in which the data
are presented, which are as follows:
1. Complete life table
2. Abridged life table
1 Complete life table
In a complete life table, information is given for every single year of age from birth until the last applicable
age.
It means that a complete life table presents the mortality experience for every single year of age.
2 Abridged life table
The full details of a single year of age life table, that is, complete life table is unmanageable or may not be
necessary for many purposes. In this context, a life table of age group is developed that is useful for many
purposes such as comparisons between different populations, or for projections and estimates for five year
age groups. A summary approach of life table is constructed if the data are deficient and best used in an
aggregated form. In such contexts abridged life tables come into their own. Hence, an abridged life table is
a summary life table. It is less laborious to prepare the abridged life table and sufficiently reliable for most
purposes and often more convenient to use.
In an abridged life table, information is given only for broader age intervals such as x to x+5 years.
Generally, the usual practice is to construct an abridged life table rather than a more detailed complete life
table. In an abridged life table, ages are grouped at 5 or 10 years of interval, except in the initial years. It
normally has rows for ages 0, 1 and 5, then for every fifth year of age. Age 1 is invariably included because
of the mortality peak in infancy.
Since certain functions in a life table refer to exact ages, the rows of an abridged life table are usually
labelled as
single years, 0, 1,5,10, 15 ……….rather than age groups 5-9, 10-14, 15-19 …….

Types of life table based on decrement process

Standard life tables are different from decrement life tables, such as school life tables, working life tables
etc.
Another type of life table exists which is known as a decrement life table.
1. Single decrement life table
2. Multiple decrement life table
1 Single decrement life table
A single decrement process, like mortality, is the process in which individuals have only one known mode
of exit from a defined state. Life tables can be used to study all single decrement processes. Individuals
always enter the state at duration zero and the cohort entering the state is typically traced until the last
member has exited. In the classic life table, the defined state is “being alive” and the mode of exit is
“death”. For the process of nuptiality, being unmarried is the defined state, “marry” is the mode of exit or
the state left. The single decrement life table process can be applied to determine the duration of single life.
Similarly, life table apparatus can be applied to determine, for example, duration of residence in the process
of migration from place of birth, duration of life in the process of entering the labour force, duration of life
in the process of becoming a mother from the state of having no births to the state of having first birth.
2. Multiple decrement life table
The life table that describes the erosion caused by a given single factor, e.g., mortality, is called a single
decrement
life table. A life table that considers attrition to the size of a group from two or more causes is called a
multiple
decrement life table. The following are some examples:
i. A group of never married persons may be diminished by death and marriage.
ii. A group of employees may be diminished by death, retirement and resignation
Assumptions of Life Table:
A life table is based on the following assumptions:
1. A hypothetical cohort of life table usually comprises of 1,000 or 10,000 or 1,00,000 births.

2. The deaths are equally distributed throughout the year.

3. The cohort of people diminish gradually by death only.

4. The cohort is closed to the in-migration and out-migration.

5. The death rate is related to a pre-determined age specific death rate.

6. The cohort of persons die at a fixed age which does not change.

7. There is no change in death rates overtime.

8. The cohort of life tables are generally constructed separately for males and females.

Importance of Life Table:

1. Life table is used to project future population on the basis of the present death rate.

2. It helps in determining the average expectation of life based on age specific death rates.

3. The method of constructing a life table can be followed to estimate the cause of specific death rates, male
and female death rates, etc.

4. The survival rates in a life table can be used to calculate the net migration rate on the basis of age
distribution at 5 or 10 year interval.

5. Life tables can be used to compare population trends at national and international levels.

6. By constructing a life table based on the age at marriage, marriage patterns and changes in them can be
estimated.

7. Instead of a single life table, multiple decrement life tables relating to cause specific death rate, male and
female death rates, etc. can be constructed for analysing socio-economic data in a country.

8. Life tables are particularly used for formulating family planning programmes relating to infant mortality,
maternal deaths, health programmes, etc. They can also be used for evaluating family planning
programmes.
9. Now a days, life tables are used by life insurance companies in order to estimate the average life
expectancy of persons, separately for males and females. They help in determining the amount of premium
to be paid by a person falling in a specific age group.

Besides, if an insured person dies before the policy matures, the life table provides economic support to the
insurance company without facing financial loss and it is able to give the insured amount to the legal heirs
of the deceased.

Components of life tables

A life table contains data or information for every single year of age from birth to the last applicable age.
Most of the life tables, however, follow the cohort from birth to the death of its entire members. It is based
on sex and age-specific mortality rates, and consists of the following functions or components:
1 Age specific death rate (Mx or mx):
Age specific death rate is the total number of deaths to residents of a specified age or age group in a
specified geographic area divided by the mid-year population of the same age or age group in the same
geographic area for a specified time period, (usually a calendar year), multiplied by 1000. Age specific
mortality rates or Average mortality rates at age x is denoted by Mx or mx. It is the number of people who
died at age x divided by the midyear population at age x. There is a practice of separate life table
construction for males and females, because of the marked differences in mortality patterns between the
sexes. The starting point for life table construction is to obtain information on the number of male and
female deaths in each single year of age, and calculate age specific death rates. To reduce the effects of
short-term fluctuations in mortality or deficiencies in the data, life tables are preferably based on the
average number of deaths in each age over a period longer than a year, such as three years centred on a
census year.
Mathematical notations:
Mx = ( )Dx
Px
K
Mx= the age specific death rate. It is capitalised when the rate is derived from observed data for the
population.
mx = age specific death rate calculated from the life table itself
Where
Mx = age specific death rate of persons aged x
Dx = number of deaths in a year at age x
Px = midyear population aged x
K = 1 or 1000
2 Probability of dying between exact ages (qx)
The probability of dying between exact ages (qx) is the probability of death between age x and age x+1.
The column presents the proportion of people who died between age x and age x+1 of those living at age x.
The link between the observed data on mortality and the life table itself is provided by the qx function. qx
denotes the probability of dying between pairs of exact ages based on the age specific death rates. The
probability of dying (qx) is the first life table function calculated and all other functions are derived from it.
Using the age specific death rates (mx), life table probabilities of dying, qx values are derived from as
follows:
if calculated from observed death data
or, if derived from life table mortality data
where qx = the probability of dying between exact ages x and x+1
Mx or mx = the age specific death rate of persons aged x last birthday
Particularly for infants and the old aged, an uneven distribution of deaths exists, hence requiring a more
refined
approach in calculating qx. The infant mortality rate (IMR) is used in deriving q0 (instead of the above
formula) since it is based on the initial population – the number of live births. The probability of dying in
an open-end age interval is always 1.
i.e ∞qx = 1
Although Mx or mx and qx have similar values where death rates are low, they are different concepts. Mx
is a rate based on the mid-year population while qx is a probability based on the initial population.
qx = Dx/ (Px + 0.5Dx)
Where Dx = observed number of deaths of persons aged x last birthday in a year
Px = observed mid-year population
The probability of dying is equal to the number of deaths divided by the initial population aged x (adding
half the deaths to the mid-year population provides an estimate of the size of the initial population aged x).
Average number alive in an open-ended age group:
mx = dx /Lx
∞Lx = lx / ∞Mx
3. Probability of surviving from one exact age to the next (px)
Probability of surviving (px) is the complement of the probability of dying (qx). Together they sum to 1 in
each age interval, because everyone must either survive or die between birthdays. Since the probability of
dying in an open-ended age range is always 1, the probability of surviving (px) is always 0.
px = 1- qx
5 Number surviving at exact ages (lx)
The number of survivors at exact age x out of radix is lx. lx derived from px is an important indicator of the
impact of mortality on a population, namely the proportion surviving at each exact age. The number of
survivors in the lx column of the life table has no relationship to the actual number of people in the
population whose death rates were used. Individuals can look forward with some confidence to a long life,
but governments need to make financial arrangements to support an older population. Figures on the
proportion surviving are of great interest to the managers of life insurance and pension arrangements. lx’s
refer to exact ages and are expressed as whole numbers, whereas some other functions refer to intervals
and/or are expressed as a decimal. lx represents the number of survivals at exact age x from an original
100,000 live births (radix).
lx+1 = lx* px
l0 = 100,000
or, the lx values are based on the qx values, which allow for calculation of the number of survivors since
age x-1.
lx = lx-1 (1- qx-1 )
6 Number of deaths between exact ages (dx) or Dx
Dx or dx is absolute number of deaths at age x. dx is the number of deaths between exact ages. It is
obtained by multiplying lx, the number alive at the start of the age interval, by the probability of dying (qx)
dx = lx*qx
dx = lx – lx+1
For a final open-ended age interval, the number dying is the same as the number alive at the start of the
interval i.e.
∞dx =lx
The sum of the dx column is 100,000.
7 Average number alive between exact ages (Lx)
This is the number of person-years lived by the cohort that reached exact age x, between age x and age x+1.
Although lx is an important measure of mortality patterns, for some purposes it is limited in that it refers to
exact ages rather than age at last birthday. Censuses and surveys, which are the main sources of data on the
age distribution of populations, refer to age at last birthday. At any point in time, only a minority of people
is celebrating their birthdays, the rest of the population are between birthdays. Hence, if we need
information about the age structure of the life table population, a life table concept is needed that is closer
to the notion of age at last birthday. The relevant life table function Lx is defined as the average number
lived between exact ages or the number of person years lived between exact ages. Lx is calculated as the
average of the lx’s values at the start and end of the interval. Mathematically, it is derived from the
formulae below:
Lx = 0.5(lx + lx+1)
The above formula is an approximation since it assumes that deaths are distributed evenly over the age
interval. This formulae is not applied for younger ages since the younger the infant, the greater the risk of
death. To address this problem, different equations are used for L0 and L1. In the absence of empirical data
on the relative weighting of the lx values in the equations, the following approximations are recommended
for deriving L0:
L0 = 0.3 l0 + 0.7l1
L0 is the number of person-years lived by the cohort between birth and its first birthday. For the open-
ended interval, Lx is derived from the following formulae:
∞Lx = lx/ ∞Mx
L0 and ∞Lx are calculated differently for two reasons:
i. L0 is affected by the non-linear distribution of deaths in the first year of life.
ii. ∞Lx requires an estimate of the number of years that will be lived until the last member of the cohort
has died.
.8 Total Population aged x and over (Tx)
Tx is the total number of person-years lived by cohort survivors after reaching age x. It is the sum of Lx for
all ages after x. The Tx function has applications in calculating life expectancy, which is one of the main
summary measures of mortality, as well as other estimates based on total population numbers. It is obtained
by from the Lx values. The values of Tx give an indication of how many person years of life are lived from
each age. Tx is calculated as the sum of all the Lx values from age x to the highest age in the life table.
Mathematically,
When there is a final open-end age interval, end Tx = ∞Lx. . When last Tx is known, other Txs can then be
obtained by working reverse from the end of the life table.
Tx = Tx+1 +Lx
9 Expectation of life (ex)
Expectation of life, also called the life expectancy at age x, denoted by ex, is the average number of years
of life a hypothetical cohort of individuals is expected to live at each respective age when it is assumed that
prevailing mortality rates at each respective age remain constant. It is an expected figure that a hypothetical
cohort will attain up to the end of life from their attained age, for example 0, 1, 5, 60, 75 etc. It is a more
accurate reflection of mortality than the crude death rate because it is independent of the population’s age
structure, and it is not influenced by extraneous factors such as the selection of a standard population.
Calculation of life expectancy at birth begins with a set of age-specific death rates, from which probabilities
of surviving from one age to the next can be estimated. These survival probabilities are applied to an
assumed cohort of births that occurred in the same year, following the survivors as they reach successive
ages until all have eventually died. As a result of this procedure, a count can be obtained of the total
number of years that the birth cohort as a whole will live under the observed mortality conditions. The ratio
of all years lived by the total number of people in the cohort to the original number of births represents the
average number of years to be lived by persons born in the same year under the particular mortality
conditions of that year, which is termed as life
expectancy at birth. It is a synthetic cohort measure and can be used for international comparisons of
mortality
figures.
An important application of Tx is to calculate the life expectancy (ex), known as final life table function. It
is a
summary measure of mortality, which is widely employed in comparison through time and between
countries,
especially in terms of life expectancy at birth. The equation for ex shows that it is equal to the total person
years
of life lived after exact age x (Tx) divided by the total persons alive at exact age x (lx). This represents the
average
number of years lived by people aged x.
Mathematically,
The complete life tables presented here show the lx, qx and ex functions for single ages, from birth to last
applicable
ages like 100.
8.7.10 Other life table rates
There are other life table rates, like life table age specific death rates and the crude birth rate and death rates
of the
life table population. Life table age specific death rates is expressed as
mx = dx/lx
This function approximates Mx. The crude birth rate of the stationary population is equal to the total births
divided
by the total population.
CBR = l0/T0

Among the various types of database, population database which provides information about the
people and their welfare is of major concern for all policy makers, planners, and decision makers
of the country. Whatever the plan is made, policy is formulated and decision is taken are for the
benefit of the people. Therefore, population database of the world, country, region, district,
VDC/metropolitans along with settlement should be able to provide reliable, timely and relevant
demographic data of the people living in respective administrative units aiming to formulate
policy, plan, and program for the benefit of the people. For this purpose true information is
needed and such information could be collected from various sources which have been shown as
followings:

1. Population Census,
2. Sample Survey,
3. Vital Registration System and
4. Service Statistics and Institutional Records

Population Census

The word ‘Census’ has been derived from a Latin word ‘Censere’ meaning value or tax.
Traditionally, census was used for limited purpose such as to collect the tax or estimate the
population to be recruited in military force. Therefore, the counting was done to some prominent
(tax payer or young and healthy) population. Children, old, females, physically disabled people
were excluded.

Simply to say, census is to count people living in particular place and time. However, this
meaning is limited to the head count of population but census is not limited to the head count of
population, it is extended to the enumeration of socio-demographic and economic characteristics

of population. Evidences of censuses have been available in earlier times i.e. 17 th Century,
however, it is difficult to decide where and when the first scientific census was carried out.

United Nations (1958) has defined population Census as: “the total process of collecting,
compiling, evaluating, analyzing and publishing demographic, economic and social data
pertaining at a specified time to all persons in a country or in a well-defined territory of a
country.”
 Aforementioned definition explains the total responsibility of census from collecting the
information in different aspects of population to data management and publishing of the result
and so what modern census is doing.

Features of Census

A census should have the following characteristics:

• A specified area is enumerated at once and as a whole.

• Each individual is enumerated separately without repetition and omission.
• Important characteristics of population (age, sex, marital status, religion, literacy and
educational status, eco activity, facilities etc.) are recorded.
• Regularly taken with a fixed interval and reference period.

Content/Scope of Census or Census Questionnaire

• Individual information: age, sex, marital status, religion, caste/ethnicity, mother tongue,
literacy status, economic activities etc.
• Household information: family size, type of family, facilities available
• Demographic information: fertility, mortality, migration
• Economic information: family occupation, no. of economically active members, landholding,
family income, main source of subsistence.

Methods of Census Taking

• De facto Method: Enumeration of an individual in the place where found irrespective of usual
place of residence is called De facto Method of Population Census. For this purpose, a
particular day (especially a night) is declared as the census day and all the citizens are urged to
stay in home or not to leave home and the enumeration visit the particular household and
collect the information. For this type of census a large number of trained and qualified
enumerators are required. It is not possible in the countries like Nepal because of lack of
finance and manpower and the difficult geo-physical structure.
• De Jure Method: Enumeration of an individual in the place of usual residence is called De Jure
Method. In this method a specific week is declared as census week and during that period
enumerators visit the every household and enumerate the people based on their usual place of
residence.

Nepal has modified De Jure Method of census. This is because, a census period of 8 days is
declared and in the first seven days enumerators visit every household and enumerate the
 population and in the last 8th day enumerators collect the records of missing and movers
wherever they are found.

Therefore, it uses both techniques of De facto and De jure and hence called Modified De jure
method.

Errors in Census Data

Generally there are two types of errors in census data:

• Coverage error: This error includes the over enumeration and under enumeration of the
population. This may happen if enumerator fails to enumerate all population or if the
population is double enumerated. For example, a service holder person living elsewhere than
the permanent residence any double reported by the family or may not be reported in either of
place resulting coverage error.
• Content error: This is related to questionnaire content error. For example, enumerator may skip
any of the questions resulting an error in data or while designing questionnaire some important
aspects may be missed.

Census in Nepal

Nepal has about a century long census taking history. The first census of Nepal was conducted in

1911 AD and the latest 2011 AD census is the 11 th in succession. Though the census taking was
started from 1911, till 1952/54 the censuses were limited to head count of population and hence
called unscientific. The first modern and scientific census in Nepal was conducted in the year
1952/54. This census was the first modern census incorporating the information as prescribed by
United Nations. The census of 1952/54 was conducted into two phases due to then political
instability. In the year 1952 districts east to Mahottari were enumerated and in the year 1954
districts including Mahattori and west of it were enumerated.

Because of advancement in technologies and knowledge the process and content of census are
being frequently refined. So has happened to the census of Nepal. Each successive census is
more refined, more advanced and more scientific. The latest census of 2011 is one of the
worldwide recognized censuses.

Advantages of Census:

• Main source of population data for a country

• Universally recognized
• Covers the entire nation and population
• Conducted in a specified period and regular interval
• Demographic, economic and social information are enforced
• Helpful for estimating trend and pattern of population in the future
 • Provides information for understanding changes and calculating demographic measures.

Disadvantages of Census:

• Chances of errors
• Low quality of data
• Affected by geo physical and political aspects
• Takes a long time for processing/no immediate result
• Expensive and needs large manpower
• Conducted in a large interval

Sample Survey

Simply, enumeration of sampled population is sample survey. Sample survey is the process of
collection, compiling, evaluating and publishing demographic, social and economic data about
sample population.

A sample population representative of the total population is drawn whether by any process and
enumeration of the sampled population is done and the results are generalized for the total
population using some scientific methods.

History of sample survey is not so long as compared to census and vital registration. It is

supposed that the practice of sample survey was started from the 19 th century. Charles Booth

conducted a sample survey at the end of 19th century and B.W. Rowntree at the beginning of the

20th century. Since 1950, sample surveys are being popularly used as a strong source of
information.

Types of Sample survey

• Longitudinal Sample Survey: This is also called Time Series Survey or Multi round survey.
These types of surveys are conducted time and again on the same topic to measure the
comparative changes. Demographic and Health Survey, for example, is a longitudinal sample
survey.
• Cross Sectional Survey: This is also called single round survey conducted for a single time.
This type of survey is conducted for the specific purpose and the validity of such survey is for a
specific purpose only.

Feature of Sample Survey

• Only sampled population is enumerated

• An individual can be enurmerated more than once
• Large no. of questions can be asked
 • Important characteristics of the population (age, sex, religion, marital status, caste/ethnicity,
educational status etc) are recorded
• Representative of total population
• Can be conducted on a specific topic

Sample Survey in Nepal

First sample survey in Nepal was conducted in the year 1966, 55 years later than the first census.
It was entitled “National Health Survey, 1966”, conducted by Health Division. Then after
several sample surveys by different organizations have been conducted. Recently, several
independent organizations are established for the purpose of research and everyday a research
somewhere in the country is being carried out.

Some major sample surveys in Nepal

1. National Health Survey, 1966: This survey was conducted by the Health Division of Ministry of
Health. In the survey in total, 80 percent respondents were selected from rural setting and 20
percent from urban setting. The main purpose of this survey was to identify the health status of
the population with reference to place of residence (rural and urban).

2. Demographic Sample survey, 1974/78: This was a Multi round follow up survey conducted in
different years 1974/75, 1976 and 1978. A total of 75000 respondents from 15 districts were
covered for the purpose of the study. This survey was targeted to identify the level of fertility,
mortality and migration.

3. Nepal Fertility Survey, 1976: This survey covered 6000 households from 33 districts. Ever
married females of the reproductive age were the respondents for the survey. The major
objective of this survey was to identify the level of fertility by geographical regions and use of
contraceptives.

4. Nepal Contraceptive Prevalence Survey, 1981: This survey was conducted in the joint funding of
Family Planning and Maternal Child Health (FP/MCH) pro Westinghouse Health Systems,
Washington D.C, USA in the year 1981. This survey included females of reproductive sp 1476
urban households and 4406 rural households. A total of 178 clusters (42 urban and 136 rural)
were selected. The objective of this study was to identify the level of contraceptive prevalence
and assess the national family planning programme.

5. Nepal Fertility and Mortality Survey, 1984: This survey was conducted by New Era in the year
1984. A total of 4979 female of reproductive span were interviewed from 5151 households.
Three different types of questionnaires (community, household and individual) were used in this
survey.
 The main objective of this survey was to analysis the fertility and mortality dependent with
socioeconomic status and ecological regions.

6. Demographic sample Survey, 1986/87: Conducted by Central Bureau of Statistics, it was a Multi
round follow up survey. A total of 8640 households were selected for this study with the main
purpose of estimating the figures of births, deaths and migration in the inter censual period.

7. Nepal Fertility and family planning survey, 1986: This survey was conducted by family planning
Research and Evaluation Section of Ministry of Health in the year 1986. A total of 5150
currently married females of reproductive span were interviewed. This study was mainly
targeted to identify level, pattern and trend of fertility and family planning.

8. Nepal Feritlity, Family Planning and Health Survey, 1991: Conducted by MoH, FP/MCH
Division, a total of 25384 ever married females of reproductive span from 24754 households
were interviewed. Objective of this study was to identify the level, pattern and trend of fertility
and knowledge and use of contraceptives.

9. Nepal Family health Survey, 1996: Funded by USAID and MoH , a total of 8429 ever married
females aged 15-49 were interviewed. This was the fifth series of health survey. This survey
collected information on fertility, mortality, family planning, infant deaths, child deaths,
maternal deaths and child nutrition and health.

10. Migration, Employment and Birth, Death, Contraceptive Survey, 1996: This study was
conducted by the Central Department of Population Studies (CDPS), Tribhuvan University in the
year 1996. A total of 600 wards from 73 districts were covered in the study. From 19200
households’ information on employment and migration and from 12286 households’ information
on birth death and family planning were collected. This survey used different questionnaire for
different topics.

11. Nepal Living Standard Survey 1996: This survey was conducted by CBS in the year 1996. A
total of 3388 household were selected for the interview with breakdown of 424 from the
Mountain, 604 from urban area of the Hill, and from rural area of the Hill 1136 and from Terai
1224 . This survey collected information related to the quality of life of people like: residential
facilities, migration, food intake, employment, agriculture and cattle rearing, health, education
etc.

12. Nepal Labour Force Survey, 1998: Conducted by CBS in the year 1998, this survey collected
information from 14400 household (7200 urban and 7200 rural) from all 75 districts. This survey
was limited to collect information on reason for unemployment length of unemployment, daily
 activities, economic activities of children, and other several information related to
economic activities.

13. Nepal Demographic and Health Survey, 2001: This survey was conducted by MoH,
Health Division, and Family Health Divison in the year 2001. New Era was the
research organization to conduct to research. Technical support for the research was
given by ORC Marco and USAID provided financial support. A total of 8726 females
of aged 15 to 49 and 2261 males of aged 15 to 59 were interviewed in the survey.
This study covered all 75 districts of the country. This survey collected information on
fertility, family planning, infant and child mortality, breastfeeding, nutrition level,
knowledge of HIV/AIDS, educational status of women, employment etc. This survey
is one of the popular surveys conducted all over the world.

14. National Survey, 2001: For the first time in the history of Nepalese census Central
Bureau of Statistics practiced a survey type of enumeration. Two types of
questionnaire were developed for the census from I and From II. Form I was
administered in all households of the country and the form II was administered in
some selected households. In six districts and 52 municipalities both form were
administered and in the rest districts and municipalities, From II was administered
with ratio of 1:8 households (one household in every 8 household), comprising of 20
percent of total population. The main objective of the survey was to collect the socio
economic information and some demographic information like migration, death
statistics and other details.

Advantages of Sample Survey

• Quality data can be collected

• In-depth study is possible
• Save cost and time
• Results can be generalized
• Intercensual change can be measured

Disadvantages of Sample Survey

 • Sampling error is possible
• Result may biased
• Are not alternative to census
• Result may not be generalized

In the recent time, surveys have become a major source of demographic data. These
are the popular sources and are easily handling sources. Before developing any plan
or policy a trend has been established to conduct a need assessment (i.e. survey).
Therefore, a well-managed survey is a good source of population data.

Vital Registration

Vital registration is the record of vital events (births, deaths, migrations, marriges,
divorces etc). The registered statistics are collectively called vital statistics. UN has
defined vital registration as “legal registration, statistical recording and reporting of
the occurrence of and collection, compilation, presentation , analysis and distribution
of statistics pertaining to vital events, i.e. births, deaths, foetal deaths (Still births),
marriages, divorces, adoptions, annulments and legal separations.”

Vital registration has a long history. In ancient period, registration of vital events
(limited to births, deaths and marriage) in most of the European countries was done by
Church or any other religious bodies. Though the records were kept in one way or
others any formal use of the information was made and the system was not universal.
For the first time, John Graunt (1662) an English researcher, made a use of the
statistics collected from vital registration and published a book entitled “Natural and
Political Observation Made upon the Bill of Mortality”. This attempt of Gruant fairly
increased the popularity of vital registration. Slowly, the system took worldwide
acceptance. Almost all countries of the world now have legalized the system of vital
registration.

Vital Registration in Nepal

For the first time, The Village Phanchayat Act 2019 B.S. was issued for registration of
vital events but could not function, several attempts were made in between but could
not gain the height.
 Formally, from the Baishak 1, 2034, vital registration system was introduced in 10
districts of Nepal (Jhapa, Morang, Saptari, Mahottari, Sharlahi, Rautahat, Kapilvastu,
Banke, Kanchhanpur, and Kathmandu). By Chaitra 1, 2047, in all districts of country
vital registration system was introduct.

Following table shows the consecutive development of Vital Registration System in Nepal.

Population Pyramid
A population pyramid, also called an "age-gender-pyramid", is a graphically illustrated data that
shows the distribution of various age groups and gender in a population (typically that of a
country or region of the world), which forms the shape of a pyramid when the population is
growing. Males are conventionally shown on the left and females on the right, and they may be
measured by raw number or as a percentage of the total population. This tool can be used to
visualize the age of a particular population.[2] It is also used in ecology to determine the overall
age distribution of a population; an indication of the reproductive capabilities and likelihood of
the continuation of a species.
Structure of the Population Pyramid:
The population size is shown on the x-axis (horizontal) while the age-groups are represented on
the y-axis (vertical). Males are conventionally shown on the left and females on the right.
Population pyramids are often viewed as the most effective way to graphically depict the age and
distribution of a population. A great deal of information about the population broken down by
age and sex can be read from a population pyramid, and this can shed light on the extent of
development and other aspects of the population.
A series of population pyramids could give a clear picture of how a country transitions from high
to low fertility rates. If the pyramid has a broad base, this indicates that a relatively high
proportion of the population lies in the youngest age band, such as ages 0–14, which suggests
that the fertility rate of the country is high and above population sub-replacement fertility level.
In such a case, the older population is declining with age, due to a combination of mortality and
an increase in the number of births over time. There are usually more females than males in the
older age ranges since women have a longer life expectancy: for a variety of reasons including
women partaking less in risky behaviors.
The shape of the pyramid can also reveal the age-dependency ratio of a population. Populations
with a high proportion of children and/or of elderly people have a higher dependency ratio. This
ratio refers to how many old and young people are dependent on the working age groups (often
defined as ages 15–64). According to Weeks' Population: an Introduction to Concepts and
Issues, population pyramids can be used to predict the future, known as a population
forecast. Population momentum, when a population's birth rates continue to increase even after
replacement level has been reached, can even be predicted if a population has a low mortality
rate since the population will continue to grow. This then brings up the term doubling time,
which is used to predict when the population will double in size. Lastly, a population pyramid
can even give insight on the economic status of a country from the age stratification since the
distribution of supplies are not evenly distributed through a population.
Types of Population Pyramid:

EXPANSIVE
A population pyramid that is very wide at the younger ages, characteristic of countries with a
high birth rate and perhaps low life expectancy. The population is said to be fast-growing, and
the size of each birth cohort increases each year.
Expansive population pyramids are used to describe populations that are young and growing.
They are often characterized by their typical ‘pyramid’ shape, which has a broad base and
narrow top. Expansive population pyramids show a larger percentage of the population in the
younger age cohorts, usually with each age cohort smaller in size than the one below it. These
types of populations are typically representative of developing nations, whose populations often
have high fertility rates and lower than average life expectancies.
CONSTRICTIVE
A population pyramid that is narrowed at the bottom. The population is generally older on
average, as the country has long life expectancy, a low death rate, but also a low birth rate. This
may suggest that in future there may be a high dependency ratio due to reducing numbers at
working ages. This is a typical pattern for a very developed country, with a high level of
education, easy access to and incentive to use birth control, good health care, and few negative
environmental factors.
Constrictive population pyramids are used to describe populations that are elderly and shrinking.
Constrictive pyramids can often look like beehives and typically have an inverted shape with the
graph tapering in at the bottom. Constrictive pyramids have smaller percentages of people in the
younger age cohorts and are typically characteristic of countries with higher levels of social and
economic development, where access to quality education and health care is available to a large
portion of the population.
STATIONARY
A pyramid can be described as stationary if the percentages of population (age and sex) remain
approximately constant over time. In a stationary population, the numbers of births and death
roughly balance one another.
Stationary, or near stationary, population pyramids are used to describe populations that are not
growing. They are characterized by their rectangular shape, displaying somewhat equal
percentages across age cohorts that taper off toward the top. These pyramids are often
characteristic of developed nations, where birth rates are low and overall quality of life is high.

Dependency Ratio:
The dependency ratio is a measure of the number of dependents aged zero to 14 and over the age
of 65, compared with the total population aged 15 to 64. . The dependency ratio measures the %
of dependent people (not of working age) / number of people of working age (economically
active). In other words, the dependency ratio is the ratio of young and old people who are not in
work and are dependent on the taxpayer to pay for public services. Examples include public
pensions, schooling, or other forms of social security.
It is used to measure the pressure on the productive population.
Consideration of the dependency ratio is essential for governments, economists, bankers,
business, industry, universities and all other major economic segments which can benefit from
understanding the impacts of changes in population structure. A low dependency ratio means that
there are sufficient people working who can support the dependent population A lower ratio
could allow for better pensions and better health care for citizens. A higher ratio indicates more
financial stress on working people and possible political instability.
Importance of the Dependency Ratio

The dependency ratio is important because it shows the ratio of economically inactive compared
to economically active. Economically active will pay much more income tax, corporation tax,
and, to a lesser extent, more sales and VAT taxes.

The economically inactive under 16 and over 65 also tend to be bigger recipients of government
spending e.g. education, pensions and healthcare.

An increase in the dependency ratio can cause fiscal problems for the government. For example,
Italy already has a national debt of over 100%, a doubling of the dependency ratio is going to
cause difficult choices for government to make.

Formula of Dependency Ratio:

( Number of people aged 0−14 ) +( Number of People aged 65∧¿)
Dependency Ratio= 64 ¿× 100
Number of aged 15 ¿
The (total) dependency ratio can be decomposed into the child dependency ratio and the aged
dependency ratio:
( Number of people aged 0−14 )
Young Dependency Ratio= 64 ¿ ×100
Number of aged 15 ¿
( Number of People aged 65∧¿)
Aged Dependency Ratio= 64 ¿ ×100
Number of aged 15¿
Issues in the Dependency Ratio:
A high dependency ratio can cause serious problems for a country if a large proportion of a
government's expenditure is on health, social security & education, which are most used by the
youngest and the oldest in a population. The fewer people of working age, the fewer the people
who can support schools, retirement pensions, disability pensions and other assistances to the
youngest and oldest members of a population, often considered the most vulnerable members
of society.
Nevertheless, the dependency ratio ignores the fact that the 65+ are not necessarily dependent
(an increasing proportion of them are working) and that many of those of 'working age' are
actually not working. Alternatives have been developed', such as the 'economic dependency
ratio', but they still ignore factors such as increases in productivity and in working hours.
Worries about the increasing (demographic) dependency ratio should thus be taken with caution.
[12]

High dependency ratios can also lead to long-term economic changes within the population such
as saving rates, investment rates, the housing markets, and the consumption patterns. Typically,
workers will start to increase their savings as they grow closer to retirement age, but this will
eventually affect their long-term interest rates due to the retirement population increasing and the
fertility rates decreasing. If the demographic population continues to follow this trend, their
savings will decrease while their long-term interest rates increase. Due to the saving rates
decreasing, the investment rate will prevent economic growth because there will be less funding
for investment projects. There is a correlation between labor force and housing markets, so when
there is a high age-dependency ratio in a country, the investments in housing markets will
decrease since the labor force is decreasing due to a high dependency population
Dependency Ratio based on the Demographic Transition Model:
The age-dependency ratio can determine which stage in the Demographic Transition Model a
certain country is in. The dependency ratio acts like a rollercoaster when going through the
stages of the Demographic Transition Model. During stages 1 and 2, the dependency ratio is high
due to significantly high crude birth rates putting pressure onto the smaller working-age
population to take care of all of them. In stage 3, the dependency ratio starts to decrease because
fertility and mortality rates start to decrease which shows that the proportion of adults to the
young and elderly are much larger in this stage. In stages 4 and 5, the dependency ratio starts to
increase once again as the working-age population retires. Because fertility rates caused the
younger population to decrease, once they grow up and start working, there will be more
pressure for them to take care of the previous working-age population that just retired since there
will be more young and elderly people than working-age adults during that time period. The
population structure of a country is an important factor for determining the economic status of
their country. Japan is a great example of an aging population. They have a 1:4 ratio of people 65
years and older. This causes trouble for them because there is not enough people in the working-
age population to support all of the elders. Rwanda is another example of a population that
struggles with a younger population. Both of these countries are struggling with high dependency
ratios even though both countries are on opposite stages of the Demographic Transition Model.
Sources of Demographic Data Error:
Demographic data error can be defined as the difference between a measured value and the
actual value of the collected data about the population (size,growth,fertility,mortality).
Causes of Demographic Data error:
a. Coverage Error: This error includes the over enumeration and under enumeration of the
population. This may happen if enumerator fails to enumerate all population or if the
population is double enumerated. For example, a service holder person living elsewhere
than the permanent residence any double reported by the family or may not be reported in
either of place resulting coverage error. 
b. Content Error: It is related to questionnaire content error. For example, enumerator may
skip any of the questions resulting an error in data or while designing questionnaire some
important aspects may be missed.
c. Questionnaire Problems: The content and wording of the questionnaire may be
misleading and the layout of the questionnaire may make it difficult to accurately record
responses. If the questions in the questionnaire are loaded, double-barrelled, misleading
or ambiguous, and irrrelevant to the objectives of the survey, then the obtained
demographic data will have errors.
d. Respondent Bias: Refusals to answer questions, memory biases and inaccurate
information because respondents believe they are protecting their personal interest and
integrity may lead to a bias in the estimates. The way the respondent interprets the
questionnaire and the wording of the answer the respondent gives can also cause
inaccuracies. 
 e. Time Period Bias: This occurs when a survey is conducted during an unrepresentative
time period. For example, if a survey aims to collect details on ice-cream sales, but only
collects a weeks worth of data during the hottest part of summer, it is unlikely to
represent the average weekly sales of ice-cream for the year.
f. Sensitivity: If respondents are faced with a question that they find embarrassing, they
may refuse to answer, or choose a response which prevents them from having to continue
with the questions. For example, if asked the question: "Are you taking any oral
contraceptive pills for any reason?", and knowing that if they say "Yes" they will be
asked for more details, respondents who are embarrassed by the question are likely to
answer "No", even if this is incorrect.
g. Fatigue: Fatigue can be a problem in surveys which require a high level of commitment
from respondents. For example, diary surveys where respondents have to record all
expenses made in a two week period. In these type of surveys, the level of accuracy and
detail supplied may decrease as respondents become tired of recording all expenditures.
h. Population Specification Error—This error occurs when the researcher does not
understand who they should survey. For example, imagine a survey about breakfast
cereal consumption. Who to survey? It might be the entire family, the mother, or the
children. The mother might make the purchase decision, but the children influence her
choice.
i. Sample Frame Error—A frame error occurs when the wrong sub-population is used to
select a sample.
j. Selection Error—This occurs when respondents self-select their participation in the study
– only those that are interested respond. 
k. Non-Response—Non-response errors occur when respondents are different than those
who do not respond. This may occur because either the potential respondent was not
contacted or they refused to respond. 
l. Errors in data processing Viz. Coding, punching, verification, tabulation, etc.
m. Lack of trained enumerators.

Ways to minimize the errors in Demographic Data:

• Use of structured questionnaire and FGDs – skip pattern, codes
• Use of survey manual with standard definition and specification
• Pre-test of questionnaire
• Use of mix of instruments – structured and unstructured questionnaire/FGD
• A thorough training of enumerators with background knowledge on the subject
• Good rapport building with respondents
• No lead question; no guess
• Use of probing questions – who, what, where, why and how
• Request for time if the questionnaire is not completed in one sitting

• Interview place – calm and quiet environment

• Improved coding of questionnaire
• Programming for data entry and double data entry to minimize possible entry errors
 • Data cleaning and editing
• Increase in sample size

Whipple Index:
Whipple index is one of the widely used indexes to measure age misreporting. The index was
invented by the American demographer George C. Whipple (1866–1924). Respondents to
a census or other survey sometimes report their age or date of birth as a round number
(typically ending in 0 and 5), or to be more culturally favorable, for example, so that they
appear younger or to have been born on a date considered luckier than their actual date of
birth. The process of reporting a rounded or “lucky” age is known as age-heaping. It has been
develop to reflect preference of terminal digits; 0 and 5.
Formula of the Whipple Index:
Σ (P 25+ P30 +… .+ P55 + P60)
× 100
Whipple Index: 1
( )Σ (P 23+ P24 + … … … .+ P 61+ P62)
5
The UN recommends a standard for measuring the age heaping using Whipple's Index as
follows:

Whipple's
Quality of data Deviation from perfect
index

< 105 Highly accurate < 5%

105–109.9 Fairly accurate 5–9.99%

110–124.9 Approximate 10–24.99%

125–174.9 Rough 25–74.99%

> 175 Very rough ≥ 75%

W ranges between 100, representing no preference for “0” or “5” and 500, indicating that
only digits “0” and “5” were reported
Myer’s blended Index:
Myers’ blended index is similar to Whipple’s index, except that the index considers preference
(or avoidance) of age ending in each of the digits 0 to 9 in deriving an overall age accuracy
score. The theoretical range of Myers’ index is from 0 to 90, where 0 indicates no age heaping
and 90 indicates the extreme case where all recorded ages end in the same digit. It is based on the
principle that in the absence of age heaping, the aggregate population of each age ending in one
of the digits 0 to 9 should represent 10% of the total population.

Sex Ratio:
It is the ratio of males to females in a given population and usually expressed as the number of
males per 100 females. It is used for expressing sex composition of the population.
Number of Males
Sex Ratio= ×100
Number of Females

Sex and Age Composition:

The age structure of a population refers to the number of people in different age groups. A larger

size of population in the age group of 15-59 years indicates the chances of having a larger

working population. On the other hand, if the number of children in the population is high, the

dependency ratio will be high. Similarly, a growing population in the age group of 60 plus

indicates greater expenditure on the care of the aged. There are three types of age structures, viz.,

(i) the West European type in .which children constitute less than 30 per cent, and 15 per cent of

the population are old; (ii) the North American type where 35-40 per cent of the population are

children and ten per cent, old people; and (iii) the Brazilian type where 45-55 per cent of the

population are children, and old people constitute only four-eight per cent of the total population.

The type of age structure has a direct influence on the future of a nation, since both extremes,

i.e., old age dependency as well as young age dependency proves to be a severe burden on the

economy of a country.

Demographers use population pyramids to describe age distribution of populations. 

The principal factor contributing to a change in the age distribution of a population:

Fertility: a change in fertility affects the number of people in the single age group of age zero, or

the newly born. Hence a decline or increase in fertility has a significant effect at one end of the

age distribution and can thereby influence the overall age structure. This means that youthful age
structures correspond to highly fertile populations, typical of developing countries. The older age

structures are those of low-fertility populations, more common to the industrialised nations.

Mortality: A change in mortality affects the number of people in age 60+ or the elderly

population. Hence a decline or increase in mortality has a significant effect at another end of the

age distribution and can influence the overall age distribution. This means that elderly age

structures correspond to the low mortality populations, typically of developed countries.

Sex Ratio:

Another structural feature of populations is the relative numbers of males and females. Defined

as the number of females per 1000 males in the population, sex ratio is an important social

indicator of the equity prevailing between males and females at a given point of time. Factors

influencing the sex ratio are, mainly, the differentials in mortality, sex selective migration, and

sex ratio at birth and, at times, the sex differential in population enumeration.

By nature, slightly more males are born than females (a typical ratio being 105/106 males for

every 100 females). However, males experience higher mortality at virtually all ages after birth.

By implication, during childhood males outnumber females of the same age; the different

decreases as age increases; at some point in the adult life span, the numbers of males and females

become equal; as higher ages are reached, the number of females becomes quite large.

For eg: India shows an uneven composition of population as compared to most of the developed

countries. The reasons put forward for such a state of affairs are: high maternal mortality, female

infanticide, sex-selective female abortions, neglect of the girl child leading to a higher mortality

among girls at a young age, and change in sex ratio at birth.

Population Projection:
Population projections are attempts to show how the human population living today will change

in the future.

Population projections are calculations of future birth rate, death rate and migration of population

based on their past and present conditions. They are neither predictions, nor forecasts, nor

estimates. Rather they are in between predictions and forecasts. According to a UN Study,

“Population projections are calculations which show the future course of fertility, mortality and

migration. They are in general purely formal calculations, developing the implications of the

assumptions that are made.”

Methods of Population Projection:

There are three methods of population projection – Mathematical Method, Growth Component
Method, and Economic Method.

(1) Mathematical Method:

The mathematical method is the earliest one to be used for population projection. The S-shaped
logistic curve is useful for making population projections. But because of its complicated
mathematical formula, it is not used by demographers. However, demographers use simple
arithmetic and geometric formulas and graphs for population projection.

Arithmetic Method:

In the arithmetic projection method, it is assumed that the annual change (increase or decrease)
in population remains the same throughout the projection period and the crude birth and death
rates are taken. The formula for such linear interpolation is

Pp=Pt +
where,

Pp– Population projection in the future;

P1 = Present population as per the recent census;
P2= Size of population in the previous census;
n = Number of years between the projection year and the previous census; and
N= Total number of years between the recent and previous census.

Geometric Method:
In the geometric method of projection, the formula is

Pp = P1(1 + r)n

where,

Pp= Projected population;

P1 = Population as per the recent census;
r= Annual rate of increase or decrease of population; and

n = Number of years.

This formula is the basis of Malthus’s population projection.

It can be easily calculated like geometrical progression of the compound interest:

Limitations of Mathematical Method:
The mathematical method of population projection has been widely used. But it has its
limitations.

1. It is neither an adequate nor a complete method of population projection to give information

regarding age group.

2. The projection is done on the axiomatic assumption that the demographic projection of the
future is based on the growth rate of the past and that the prevailing situation will remain in the
future too. It is thus not a real index of either the future or past trends of population.

3. This method fails to make projections about birth rate, death rate and migration because it
assumes them as constant.

4. It ignores the past and future socio-economic changes which affect population growth
significantly. In fact, socio-economic changes can prove the projected information wrong.

5. It is possible that the formula for the logistic curve may not give an S- shaped curve due to the
time series involved in it.
(2) Growth Component Method:
This method is more practical than the mathematical method of population projection. The
growth component method, also known as the cohort component method, makes separate
projections for birth rate, death rate and migration by age-sex groups.

In making projections for the birth rate by age sex groups, the effects of fertility rate in females,
marriage and re-marriage rate, sterilization rate of socioeconomic factors, of education, of
divorce, of net reproduction rate, etc. on the birth rate are taken into account.

Similarly, in making projections for the death rate, the infant mortality rate, expectation of life at
birth, the ratio of the aged in the total population, maternity deaths, etc. are estimated on the
basis of past census figures. At the same time, the effects of medical and public health services
on the death rate are also taken into consideration.

For making projections on migration, the past trends of emigration and immigration and changes
in the rules of migration by other countries vis-a-vis the home country are used.

Thus by calculating separately the effects of birth rate, death rate and migration by age-sex group
in each case, the projected total population is estimated by their summation.

The correctness of growth component depends upon the assumptions made about birth rate,
death rate and migration rate. But there is every possibility that the assumptions may not be true
and the projections may turn out to be incorrect.

(3) Economic Method:

In the Mathematical Method and Growth Component Method of population projections,
demographic estimates of future are given on the basis of population growth rate, birth rate,
death rate and migration rate. But the factors really affecting them are not kept in mind due to
which the projected statistical information remains changeable.

Thus, in the effective economic method of population projection, how and to what extent the
birth, death and migration rates are affected by economic factors are considered. Economic
development is important for knowing the effects of migrations.

Due to regional economic development, people migrate from the backward areas to developed
areas in search of jobs. In addition, the rural, urban, age and sex-wise number of projected
labourers are to be estimated. Such changes, their effects on urbanisation and the consequent
growth of towns, cities and urban centres and birth rate, death rate and growth rate of population
in them are projected. This method is more useful for region-wise projections rather than for the
entire country.

Importance of Population Projections:

Population projections have become very important in recent times in every field of the
economy.

1. For Economic Development:

The process of industrialisation and urbanisation, the knowledge regarding the future conditions
is not only limited to planners, economists or administrators but today entrepreneurs, traders and
customers, too are worried about the future conditions.

On the prevailing growth rate of population in developing countries that are passing through the
stage of demographic transition, it is essential for the planners to know that how many houses,
schools, teachers, job opportunities and how many quintals of food grains, and how many metres
of cloth are to be increased.

All these can be ascertained with the help of projections. Moreover, what should be the trends of
export and import and how much foreign investment is required can be roughly estimated
through population projections.

The size of population in rural areas, the pace of urbanisation, the possibilities of balanced
regional development according to rural-urban population ratio, the contribution of agricultural
resources in planning irrigation facilities, the rate of industrial development, etc. are some of the
factors which require population projections.

2.  For Social Development:

For looking into the future birth rate it becomes necessary to project the factors like level of
education, development of education, female education and size of the family, propaganda of
family planning, effects of family planning on people, and by how much will the birth rate
decline and how many years it will take to achieve any particular growth rate and what will be
the changes in the age composition of the population. The birth rate can be projected on the basis
of these factors.
3.  For Business Classes:
Population projections are also necessary for entrepreneurs or business classes. If they know at
what rate and of what size the population will increase in future, they will engage their
productive resources in accordance with the demand estimated for the future, based on the
projected figures.

On the basis of age and sex-wise population projections they can estimate the future demand for
their products and plan and produce accordingly. Thus projections play an important role in
market mechanism.

4.  For Demographic Theory:

In the 1930s, the popularity of the theory of demographic transition created the environment for
population projections and its importance. With the help of the theory of demographic transition,
the particular stage of demographic transition of any country can be known and after how many
years it will reach the stage of economic development or what time will it take to pass from one
stage to another, can be known by population projections.

5.  For Planners:

Population projections help the planners to find out the trends in the growth of population
between two censuses.

6.  For Migration:

They provide estimates of future trends relating to migration at the national and international
levels.

7.  For Planning Adequate Investments:

According to the Indian Ninth Five Year Plan, population projections are required for planning
adequate investments for: (i) essential necessities such as food, shelter and clothing; (ii) essential
prerequisites for human development such as education, employment and health care; and (iii)
optimal utilisation of the available human resources for economic and social development.

Limitations of Population Projections:

Population projections are made by institutions and demographers but they are often incorrect.

The following are the limitations of population projections:

1.  Wrong Assumptions:
Demographers do not use a uniform method for making population projections. The projections
are bound to be incorrect because the mathematical and growth component methods are based on
different assumptions. As pointed out by J.S. Davis, “It is not calculation of projection that is
wrong but assumptions make a projection wrong.”

2.  Estimation of Mobility of Labour Difficult:

It is not possible to estimate correctly birth rate, death rate and migration rate due to the mobility
of labour, especially in a developing economy. With development and structural transformation,
there is large scale mobility of labour within and outside the country which cannot be projected
correctly even for a short period.

3. Difficult to Estimate Age-Sex Structure:

Population projections may turn out to be wrong during the demographic transition stage because
it is difficult to estimate correctly the age-sex structure of the population.

4.  Conditions Likely to Change:

According to Gauman, “Demographic projections are like weather forcasting.” Like weather,
they are based on conditions and if conditions change during the calculation of projections, they
may be incorrect.

5.  Based on Hypothesis:

As population projections are based on hypothesis, they are many a time turn out to be untrue.
W.G. Barclay opines: “Any calculations of future population are by their nature hypothetical.”

6.  Artificial and Undependable:

J.J. Spengler qoutes Schoeffler that, “economists have become accustomed to committing a
considerable variety of artificialities in their collection, treatment, and interpretation of data.
They artificially mechanize, simplify, generalize, systematize, fixate, factorize, close, semi-close,
and isolate. Unavoidably, therefore, predictions about economic reality which are produced with
the aid of those techniques are quite undependable.”

Despite these limitations, demographers and institutes continue to make population projections.

Conclusion to Population Projections:

Population Projections are important only when they are for a short period. The projections for
long period are possible only in a static economy. When the economy is dynamic, and social,
political and external factors affect it, the projections are rarely true. Pravin Visaria has shown
that all projections in 1961 regarding India and Pakistan proved to be false. This does not mean
that projections should not be made or used.

While making projections regarding birth and death rates, it should be kept in mind that the
projections for birth rate are only successful if the information like total number of females
having fertility, marriage-remarriage rate, effect of family planning on citizens and its acceptance
etc., is available.

Similarly, for making projections of death rate, the number of population per doctor, daily
calorie intake, disease-resistance power, per-capita income, development of medical facilities
and economic development, etc. are the factors to be taken into account.

If definite information is available regarding these and the projections are made consciously on
the basis of such information for a short period, the projections are useful for demographic
analysis.

Census and sample survey essentially relates to the statistical collection of

data across various areas and sectors pertaining to the particular subject-
matter or enquiry. These data collection exercises are undertaken on a cross-
section of a targeted population.

The information that is derived from the study of a population can be

subsequently used for various purposes. 

Let us discuss the census and sampling. 

Census Method 

The process used in the census method includes the statistical compilation of
all units or members of the target population under the survey. In this case,
population relates to the entire set of observations connected to a particular
study.

For instance, if students of a university have to give feedback on teaching

faculty, the former will be held as the population of that study.

Sample Method 
Sample method chooses the different sample entities from the targeted
population. This method involves a statistical analysis of an already
determined number of observations that is derived from a larger set of
population. 

Sample methodology can be used of different kinds; these can be – simple

random sampling or systematic sampling, cluster sampling or stratified
sampling, etc. among others.

Advantages of Census Method 

Advantages of census method are –

 Intensive Nature of Study 

In-depth information related to an issue is covered, which helps in all-

inclusive understanding.

For instance, in population census, apart from counting a number of people,

other parameters are also considered, like age, sex, marital status etc. 

 Accuracy and Reliability of Results 

Results are more reliable and accurate owing to the vast number of items
that are taken into account. 

Limitations of Census Method 

Limitations of census method includes –

 High Expenditure 

The expenditure incurred during census is much higher because of sheer

size of the population. Also, data is collected from each unit of a sample
population, which requires additional costing. 

 Huge Resources Required 

Owing to the huge volume of data that is collated, a greater number of

workforce (as well as man hours) is required for completion. 
Advantages of Sample Method

The advantages of sample method are –

 Faster Results 

In the sample method, the number of units utilised is significantly less. It

helps to arrive at results much quicker.

 Economical 

Sample method incurs substantially lower cost than census method as these
tests are done over a limited sample.

 Greater Ambit of Scope 

It has greater scope than census method as it acts as a substitute in such

cases where the latter becomes impracticable. For instance, if a
manufacturer wants to test its range of toasters and other kitchen
appliances, it will apply a sample method and not a census method. 

 Cross-checking Census Results and Follow up Measures

The nature of the sample method is such that it can be employed to check
the results from the census method. 

Also, due to the small size of its sample, the method is useful for cross-
checking the reliability of its own results. A small sample can be taken out of
generated results, and that sample will have to be investigated. 

Limitations of a Sample Method

Limitations of sample method are –

 Inefficiencies in Sample Selection 

In choosing samples, there is a higher likelihood of biased selection. The

investigator may choose such a sample that is favourable to him or her. Due
to this, entire collected sample sets will not be an accurate representation of
the entire population. 
  Difficulty in Selecting a Sample with all Characteristics

It is likely that samples may not retain all the characteristics of a population.
The problem arises from the limited size of any sample.

In a small sample base, only a handful of characteristics will be exhibited. 

 Requires Expert knowledge and Training 

The executors of sample method require training and specialised knowledge

for conducting the survey. In the absence of knowledge of those special
techniques, the exercise cannot be carried out. 

Difference Between Census and Sample

Parameters Census Sample

Census method is effective Sample method is effective
Applicability  for a heterogeneous if the study is on limited
population units in a population
It is comparatively
It requires much more
Economy  economical in nature
resources, time and costs 
requiring lesser resources
Enquiry The nature of enquiry is Nature if an enquiry is
nature  extensive in its ambit  limited in its ambit
Due to the vastness of the Due to the limited size of
Organising
sample population, the population sample,
and
organising and monitoring monitoring and organising
monitoring 
is difficult  is relatively easy
The results can be further
The results borne out of
tested by investigating
Verification  verification cannot be
another small sample from
verified 
the generated result
Given the extensive Due to the limited method
Accuracy and method, the results are of sampling, it falls short of
reliability  closer to accuracy and have attaining a high degree of
greater reliability accuracy.