MARRAKECH 2016

COP22 CMP12 CMA1

UN CLI MATE CHANGE CONFERENCE

Session: Climate Change Friendly Economics and Sustainable Development.

November 16, 2016 at 13:00 – 14:30 Pavilion Indonesia

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON

AIR QUALITY IN
THE URBAN LANDSCAPE

Dr. Budi Haryanto

Department of Environmental Health
Research Center for Climate Change
Universitas Indonesia
 Moderating Health Effects
Health effects
influences
Temperature-related
Temperature -related
illness and death
Extreme weather-
Extreme weatherstorms)
related (floods, -
related effects
health health effects
Environment
Air pollution-related
pollution -related
Impacts: health effects
Microbial changes:
Regional weather Contamination
Water and food
Water and food-borne
-borne
changes Contamination paths
pathways
Climate diseases
diseases
Change
•Heat waves Transmission
Transmission dynamics
Vector
Vector -borne
borne and
and
•Extreme weather dynamics
rodent
rodent borne diseases
- borne diseases
•Temperature
•Precipitation
Changes in agro- Effects of food and
ecosystems, hydrology water shortages
•Sea-level rise

Socioeconomic and Mental, nutritional,

demographic disruption infectious-disease and
other effects
 CC – Air pollutants
 Weather conditions influence air quality via the
transport and/or formation of pollutants (or pollutant
precursors).
 Weather conditions influence air pollutant emissions,
both biogenic emissions (pollen production) and
anthropogenic emissions (increased energy demand).
 Exposure to air pollutants can have many serious
health effects. Long-term exposure to elevated levels
of air pollution may have greater health effects than
acute exposure
 GHG – Air Pollution
 Indonesia is the world’s fifth-ranking greenhouse gas
emitter
 The source of emissions are land use, land-use
change, forestry (includes forest fires and peat
degradation), and a mixture of energy and
transportation-related emissions.
 Indonesia has the world’s highest rate of
deforestation. From 2000 to 2012, Indonesia lost more
than 23,000 square miles of forest to logging,
agriculture, and other uses (Nature).
 Higher emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) have
caused rapidly worsening air pollution
 Relative proportion of environmental
impacts caused by air pollution

12%

28%
60%

Health impacts
Note: Average for 6 developing cities Climate change
Source: Lvovsky et al.
Other
Urban air pollution and health

• Pollutants of concern
Lead Particulate matter Benzene
CO SOx Other toxics
NOx Ozone

• Health effects
Adverse birth outcomes
Asthma attacks and bronchitis
Lung cancer
Heart attacks
Mortality
WHO REPORT 2012
 ESTIMATED
CAUSE OF DEATHS

WHO, 2012
 Air pollution in Indonesia
 Major environmental problem, urban areas being
most affected.
 The transportation sector contributes 80% followed by
emissions from industry, forest fires and domestic
activities.
 The large number of vehicles together with lack of
infrastructure results in major traffic congestions
(mainly in urban centers) resulting in high levels of air
polluting substances.
 Forest fires are a major contributor to air pollution on
a local, national and regional scale.
 Human cost of air pollution
 In Indonesia, the 2015 haze caused upward of 75,000
cases of upper respiratory infections (Carrington ‘15).
 In Jakarta, a 2010 study found that 57.8% of the
population suffered from various diseases related to air
pollution, including bronchial asthma, bronchopneumonia,
and coronary artery diseases (Safrudin ‘15).
 The national 35,000-megawatt development project is
expected to increase the number of premature deaths
from 6,500 to 28,300 people per year due to impending air
pollution from coal-fired power plants (Greenpeace ‘15).
 NUMBER OF CASES
 1,210,581 people suffered by asthmatic bronchiale (12.6%)
 153,724 people with bronchopneumonia ( 1.6%)
 2,449,986 with ARI (25.5%)
 336,273 people with pneumonia ( 3.5%)
 153,724 people with COPD ( 1.6%)
 1,246,130 people with coronary artery diseases (13.0%)

57.8% of the Jakarta population had already suffered by various air

pollution-related diseases in 2010
 Estimation cost of illness on diseases related to air
pollution in Jakarta 2010 (in IDR)

Incidence Cost per patient Estimated cost in Jakarta

Health Impacts Per 100,000 Minimum Maximum Minimum Maximum

Asthmatic bronchiale 12,600.0 173,972 4,418,618 210,607,225,915 5,349,095,712,874

Bronchopneumonia 1,600.0 91,500 3,650,813 14,065,837,500 561,221,228,425
ARI 25,500.0 92,142 4,774,843 225,746,580,987 11,698,296,998,123
Pneumonia 3,500.0 109,738 5,455,359 36,901,876,543 1,834,489,937,007
COPD 1,600.0 164,161 5,276,800 25,235,582,747 811,176,080,000
Coronary artery diseases 12,970.0 148,763 14,647,900 185,378,033,307 18,253,187,244,690

Total 697,935,136,999 38,507,467,201,119

US $ 53,846,154 – 2,962,112,861
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 PM2.5, ASTHMA AND LUNG
FUNCTION:
URBAN SPATIAL STUDY
TANGERANG AND MAKASSAR 2011
 COORDINATES OF PM2.5
MEASUREMENT TANGERANG 2011
 COORDINATES OF PM2.5
MEASUREMENT MAKASSAR 2011
ASTHMA PREVALENCE IN TANGERANG
AND MAKASSAR 2011
Tangerang Makassar
Asthma Status n (4250) % n (2900) %

Asthma Status
Asthma 54 1,3 37 1,3
Non-asthma 2362 55,6 1708 58,9

Experienced asthma
< 1 year 13 24,5 17 45,9
1 year and more 40 75,5 20 54,1

Last asthma attack

Last 6 days 18 34,0 11 29,7
A week to 3 months ago 13 24,5 16 43,3
>3 months ago 22 41,5 10 27,0

Frequency of attack
1-3 times 46 87,8 25 67,6
4-10 times 5 9,4 11 29,7
>10 times 2 3,8 1 2,7
 LUNG FUNCTION IN TANGERANG
AND MAKASSAR 2011

Tangerang Makassar
Lung function
N % N %

Normal 185 17,4 128 15,5

Abnormal 881 82,6 699 84,5

Total 1066 100 827 100

SCHOOL CHILDREN ACUTE
RESPIRATORY INFECTION:
COHORT STUDY JAKARTA
2004
Study cohort ARI School Children Jakarta 2004
Group Number of Incidence Survival Hazard Ratio P - value
incidence Rate (%) Time (days)

Sore throat
High polluted 122 9.2 3–4 1.3 0.21
Low polluted 115 7.4 7–8 1.0

Cough
High polluted 101 4.9 8–9 0.5 0.00
Low polluted 129 11.0 3–4 1.0

Phlegm
High polluted 98 9.1 3–4 0.9 0.70
Low polluted 139 8.1 4–5 1.0

Nasal
High polluted 56 8.7 2–3 1.3 0.13
Low polluted 123 12.2 5–6 1.0

Cough+Phlegm
High polluted 54 3.8 1–2 1.2 0.45
Low polluted 68 3.1 1–2 1.0

Cough+Nasal
High polluted 55 5.4 1–3 1.1 0.79
Low polluted 55 5.3 1–2 1.0
 RECYCLING BATTERY AND
COMMUNITY BLOOD LEAD LEVELS:
JAKARTA, TEGAL, TANGERANG,
LAMONGAN 2015
BLL’S RECYCLING BATTERY
Workers & Communities:
- 92% above 30 mg/dl (50 respondents) (BLH Tegal, 2011)
- 32% above 10 mg/dl (400 respondents) (MerC Tegal, 2011)

Children under 5 years old (Jakarta 2015, UI-CDC):

- 51% above 5 mg/dl (247 children)
- 10% above 10 mg/dl (247 children)

Elementary school children (UI-KLHK, 2015)

- 100% of 60 children above 10 mg/dl in Tangerang
- 56.9% of 72 children above 10 mg/dl in Lamongan
BLLs’ HEALTH RISK
 DEATHS CAUSED BY NCDs
In INDONESIA (WHO Report 2010)

 Total dead 1.1 million people (2008) = 63,6 % of

all causes
 30,6 % cardiovascular diseases
 14,5 % heart ischemic
 12,9 % cancers

Prevalence of diabetes mellitus 7 million people

(2010)
Proportion of Deaths caused by
NCDs in 1995-2007
59.5

60 49.9

41.7
50

40

30

20

10

0
SKRT 1995 SKRT 2001 Riskesdas 2007
CANCER CASES IN INDONESIA
1993-2007
CHALLENGES
 Indonesia is the largest energy consumer in ASEAN and the world currently.
The range growth of energy consumption is about 6-8 percent per year (IEA ‘13)

Source: ESDM 2014

CO2 Jakarta, BAU vs 2 degrees
 CONCLUSION
 Climate change significantly influences air
quality
 Air pollution is a major environmental health
challenge and putting more than 58%
population suffered to health effects urban
setting (Jakarta)
 Air pollutants are highly existed and to be
sharply increased in the future
 More than half of urban cities population are
in severe risk of having serious health effects
 RECOMMENDATION
 Enhance energy security, improve efficiency in energy production
and use, increase reliance on non-fossil fuels, and decreased fossil
fuel consumption.
 Support clean-energy technologies.
 Adopt European emission standards (Euro 4 in 2017 or in 2021 or
in 2023 and Euro 6 in 2025) and vehicle technology
 Switching the basic mode of transportation by enhancing public
transports and transportation management
 Increase total green space in urban setting (Jakarta from 10% to
30% or 40%)

Breathing will never been stopped. 9 M3 of air, with all of pollutants,

are inhaled by everyone in every single minute.

Don’t wait, do action now..!!

Thanks kindly for
your attention