20457 Hamburg

EUGEN ATTÉ Pickhuben 6

GmbH Phone (040) 378620-0
Fax (040) 37862022
E-mail: eugenatte@coffeeagents.com
Website: www.coffeeagents.com

Atté's Weekly Hamburg, 31st Jan. 2019

Uneasiness Spreads…

And it is hard to imagine a Happy End here. The enormous amounts of money that producers
unwillingly transfer back to the consuming world hasn’t even lead to a visible extra growth in
consumption – at least one doesn’t hear about it – As if that “investment” just ends up in some
pockets without any potentially positive effect other than pleasing the retailers who seem to
be happy receiving finished wish wash products wrapped in fancy packaging material, nearly
worth more than its content.

The physical market – Fairly active nearby and spot business. Many contracts, little volume.
Trading longer spreads remains out of fashion. Brazil saw a few exceptions where buyers
could afford to de-link their decision making from mere differential considerations.
Also a bit of demand for fine coffee seen. Vietnam very calm ahead of Tet. Colombia seeing
regular demand on a smaller scale with diffs on a firmer note. Centrals slow, though better
Guatemalas and higher end strictlies from Honduras enjoyed some interest (next to ongoing
HG shortcovering). African Arabica activities limited but top Kenya lots and cheaper
washed/unwasheds from the region were seeing a bit of interest. Ethiopia sidelined, however.
Spot market active across a wide range of qualities – with focus on the lower end of the price
range.

Latin/South America

Brazil – Some decent interest seen, mostly for nearby positions and a combination of
continued trade short covering and some industry buying, which occasionally extended into
next crop. January rains remained well behind expectations but outlook for Feb is for more
rainfall again – whether widespread/plentiful remains to be seen. Irregular bean maturation
noticeable and may lead to some earlier harvest in some lower areas – but is not ideal for
producing an overall uniform quality. Jan shipments to date a little behind December
numbers. BRL/USD firmed to 3,64.

Colombia – Ongoing interest from Colombia’s regular buyers, diffs steady. Peso hovered
around the 3150 mark for most of the to USD but trades firmer towards 3100 today.

Honduras – Decent coffee from higher region showing more and more and are offered at
steady prices. HG see fair overseas interest and changed hands at slight negative diffs.
Africa

Kenya – 26,000 bags offered in Tuesday’s auction, sale 15. Excellent lots, high prices, partly
reserves even higher. Good outside demand from gourmet clients. But also commercial
buyers trying secure some forward supplies. Next sale will offer about 30,000 bags of very
reasonable quality. KES/USD at 100,50.

Uganda – Quiet in Robusta. Some nibbling on Arabicas but particulary buying/selling ideas
for unwasheds seem too wide.

Ethiopia – Registered National Bank prices for Sundried qualities are far below replacement
prices from the ECX Auction center. Seems to me a miracle to make money on that! Still we
see some old crop Washed coffee offered 5 to 7 cents below the new crop. Small transactions
seen for new crop Sidamo 2 at 146 cents. Talk of town: Ethiopian Airlines opened new
terminal at Bole Airport under supervision of the Prime Minister.

Asia

Vietnam – TET is approaching so the coming week goes without Vietnam offers. Most
Exporters are officially closed till 11th of Feb 2019. Exports during January are reported to be
at 175.000 tons equivalent to 305 million US$ the GS office said. Normally harvest is ending
by January. About 40% is the number of what has been sold by the farmer to the trade
already. Most players confirm the new figures of about 27.5 million bags for this season.
Currency: decreased slightly

China – About half way into the harvest which proves that there is a delay this year. Farmers
holding some coffee awaiting better levels. Fob offers rare and at steady diffs. Not much
activity expected over the next 2 weeks due to spring festival celebrations.

India – Fob differential remain stable over the week on account of improved flow from the
producers. Some trade reported from Robusta, demand for Washed Arabica remains subdued.
Weather continues to be dry and sunny helping harvesting and drying operation. Rupee remained stable against
the US$.

PNG – It’s difficult to get a serious crop forecast as a lot of coffee coming from inaccessible
areas in the Highlands. Weather wise its fairly normal with ample amount of sunshine and
rain. We hear, that if the low price for cherries continue village people will not pick the
coffees! More info to come soon.
Indicative FOB Differentials no offers.
Origin Shipping Month Exchange Diff. c/lb
Brazil 2/3, mtgb, ss, fc March onw. NYC -10
Colombia Excelso ep March onw . NYC +21
Guatemala shb, e.p. March onw. NYC +33
Indian Plantation A March onw. NYC +22
Honduras hg, ep March onw. NYC +1
Kenya AB faq AprilJan onw. NYC +130
PNG Y1-Grade April onw. NYC -4
Ethiopia Djimmah Gr. 5 April onw. NYC -2
India Robusta Cherry AB February onw. LIFFE +210
Indonesia EK 1, 80 defects May onw. LIFFE +150
Vietnam Gr. 2, 5% Mar onw . LIFFE -40

The information herein was compiled from different sources and is for information purpose only

weekly Open weekly 30. Jan. weekly Open weekly

30. Jan. 19 Close change Interest change 19 Close change Interest change
Mar 19 102,10 -1,30 121.878 -3.711 Mar 19 1527 4 53.220 -1.744
May 19 105,30 -1,35 79.525 12.369 May 19 1548 1 32.319 -600
Jly 19 108,10 -1,30 42.594 3.616 Jly 19 1565 0 17.838 1.492
Sep 19 110,85 -1,35 28.507 700 Sep 19 1582 -1 6.898 761
Total: 307.577 14.907 Total: 115.770 -933

SWITCHES SWITCHES
ICE LIFFE
last last
today week today week
Mar/May -3,20 -3,25 1st -21 -24
May/Jly -2,80 -2,75 2nd -17 -18

Certified
Certified stocks in total (bags): 2.481.882 lots: 12.446 30. Jan

GCA Stocks in total (bags): 6.132.991 15. Jan

MCH 19 - First Notice Day ICE: FEB 24th, JAN 18 - First Notice Day LIFFE: DEC 24th,
2019 2018

Arbitratio WTI
n NY/Ldn today last week Gold CRB Crude Oil
Mar/Mar -32,84 -34,32 1,324 180,11 54,23
May/May -35,08 -36,48 € : US$ 1,1445
US$:Real 3,64