GOVERNMENT POLYTECHNIC AMBAD

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

( ESTIMATING AND COSTING 22503)

A MICRO-PROJECT REPORT ON

Highway project costs estimating methods

used in the planning stage of project
development
FOR THE AWARD OF

DIPLOMA IN ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY

(CIVIL ENGINEERING- SEM V)

UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF

2021-2022

MR: A.S. PATIL

SUBMITTED BY

ANANTA UTTAM SARDE

 CERTIFICATE
GOVERNMENT POLYTECHNIC AMBAD
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

ESTIMATING AND COSTING 22503

This is certify that Mr. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

the Micro-project entitled H i g h w a y p r o j e c t c o s t s e s t i m a t i n g
methods used in the planning stage of project development
being submittedherewith

award of

DIPLOMA IN ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY in CIVIL ENGINEERING of

MAHARASHTRASTATE BOARD & TECHNICAL EDUCATION (MSBTE) is the
result of Micro-project work completed under my supervision and guidance.

Place:Ambad (MR. A.S. PATIL)

Date:_ _/_ _/2021 Micro-project Guide

 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I have great pleasure to express my immense gratitude towards a

dynamic person and my project guide MR A.S, PATIL Department of
CivilEngineering, Government Polytechnic, Ambad for giving me an
opportunity to work on an interesting topic over one semester. The work
presented here could not have been accomplished without his most
competent and inspiring guidance, incessant encouragement,
constructive criticism and constant motivation during all phases of our
group Micro-project work. I am greatlyindebted to him.

I am very much thankful to Mr. P.V.More, Head of Department of Civil

Engineering departments and Prof. mr.Jinturkar Principal,
Government Polytechnic, Ambad, for his encouragement and providing
me a motivating environment and project facilities in the Institute to
carry out experiments and complete this Micro-project work.

I would like to extend our thanks to all our professors, staff members
and all our friends who extended their co-operation to complete the
project.

I am indeed indebted to my parents and other family members for their

immense help at all levels with moral, social & financial support, care
and support throughout my studies without which my work would not
have seen light of the day.

With warm regards,

Yours Sincerely,

Place: Ambad Mr. -----------------------------------------------------

Date: -
 DECLARATION

We, the undesired, hereby declare that the project entitled

“Highway project costs estimating methods used in the planning stage
of project development “ written and submitted by us to Government
Polytechnic Ambad during Year 2021-22, fifth Semester for partial
fulfillment of the ‘Micro Project’ requirement of ESTIMATING AND
COSTING 22503 subject under Maharashtra State Board of Technical
Education, Mumbai curriculum, under the guidance of MR. A.S PATIL SIR
is our original work.

The empirical findings in this project are based on the data collected in
this project is taken from Different sources.

Name Signature

ANANTA UTTAM SARDE{2011620349}

 Government Polytechnic,

MhadaColony,PachodRoad,ambad
Department Of Civil Engineering

Class : CE- 5I Micro-Project Proposal 2021-22 SEM: 5

SUBJECT:- ( ESTIMATING AND COSTING 22503)

TITLE OF MICRO-PROJECT :( Highway project costs estimating methods used in the planning stage
of project development)

Aim of micro-project :-To provide quality of Highway project costs

estimating methods used in the planning stage of project
development Utilitie
Course outcome achieved
1.provided quality and quantity of Highway project costs estimating methods used in
the planning stage of project development Utilities

Literature review
1. We have collected The Highway project costs estimating methods used in the
planning stage of project development

in tech-max and nirali publication book .

2. We take information of H i g h w a y p r o j e c t c o s t s e s t i m a t i n g
methods used in the planning stage of project
d e v e l o p m e n t in Nirali publication.

3. We take the information of important points in Highway project costs estimating

methods used in the planning stage of project development frominternet.
 INTRODUCTION

Cost estimation is an essential component of infrastructure projects. Accurate

estimation will assist project managers to choose adequate alternatives and to avoid
misjudging of technical and economic solutions. The accuracy of cost estimation
increases toward the end of the project due to detailed and precise information. The
conceptual phase is the first phase of a project in which the need is examined,
alternatives are assessed, the goals and objectives of the project are established and a
sponsor is identified (Wideman R. M, 1995).
Major difficulties which arise while conducting cost estimation during the conceptual
phase are lack of preliminary information, lack of database of road works costs, and
lack of up to date cost estimation methods. Additional difficulties arise due to larger
uncertainties as result of engineering solutions, socio-economical, and environmental
issues. Parametric cost estimation or estimation based on historic database during the
conceptual estimate phase is widely used in developed countries. However, developing
countries face difficulties related to the creation of a road work costs database, which
may be used for cost estimation in either the conceptual stage or the feasibility study
of a project cycle.

Methods of Cost Estimation in Projects

1) Expert Judgement Method

-Expertise should be considered from individuals or groups with specialized
knowledge or training in team and physical resource planning and estimating.

-Expert judgment, guided by historical information, provides valuable insight about

the environment and information from prior similar projects.

-Expert judgment can also be used to determine whether to combine different

methods of estimation and how to reconcile differences between them.

2) Analogous Estimating Method

Analogous cost estimating uses the values such as scope, cost, budget, and
duration or measures of scale such as size, weight, and complexity from a
previous, similar project as the basis for estimating the same parameter or
measurement for a current project.

When estimating costs, this technique relies on the actual cost of previous, similar
 projects as the basis for estimating the cost of the current project.

It is most reliable when the previous projects are similar in fact and not just in
appearance, and the project team members preparing the estimates have the
needed expertise.

3) Parametric Estimating Method

Parametric estimating uses an algorithm or a statistical relationship between historical

data and other variables (e.g., square footage in construction) to calculate resource
quantities needed for an activity, based on historical data and project parameters.
For example, if an activity needs 4,000 hours of coding and it needs to finish it in 1
year, it will require two people to code (each doing 2,000 hours a year). This technique
can produce higher levels of accuracy depending on the sophistication and underlying
data built into the model.

4) Bottom-up Estimating Method

In the Bottom-up estimating method, team and physical resources are estimated
at the activity level and then aggregated to develop the estimates for work
packages, control accounts, and summary project levels.

Bottom-up estimating is a method of estimating a component of work. The cost

of individual work packages or activities is estimated to the greatest level of
specified detail. The detailed cost is then summarized or rolled up to higher
levels for subsequent reporting and tracking purposes.
The cost and accuracy of bottom-up cost estimating are typically influenced by
the size and complexity of the individual activity or work package.

5) Three-Point Estimating Method

The accuracy of single-point activity cost estimates may be improved by
considering estimation uncertainty and risk and using three estimates to define
an approximate range for an activity‘s cost:

• Most likely (M): The cost of the activity, based on realistic effort assessment for
the required work and any predicted expenses.
• Optimistic (O): The activity cost based on analysis of the best-case scenario for
the activity.
• Pessimistic (P): The activity cost based on analysis of the worst-case scenario for
the activity.
Depending on the assumed distribution of values within the range of the three
estimates the expected cost, cE, can be calculated using a formula. Two
commonly used formulas are triangular and beta distributions. The formulas are:

Triangular Distribution
E = (O+M+P)/3
Beta Distribution (from a traditional PERT analysis)
E = (O+4M+P)/6
Cost estimates based on three points with an assumed distribution provide an
expected cost and clarify the range of uncertainty around the expected cost.
The accuracy of single-point activity cost estimates may be improved by
considering estimation uncertainty and risk and using three estimates to define
an approximate range for an activity‘s cost:

• Most likely (M): The cost of the activity, based on realistic effort assessment for
the required work and any predicted expenses.
• Optimistic (O): The activity cost based on analysis of the best-case scenario for
the activity.
• Pessimistic (P): The activity cost based on analysis of the worst-case scenario for
the activity.

Depending on the assumed distribution of values within the range of the three
estimates the expected cost, cE, can be calculated using a formula. Two
commonly used formulas are triangular and beta distributions. The formulas are:

Triangular Distribution
E = (O+M+P)/3
Beta Distribution (from a traditional PERT analysis)
E = (O+4M+P)/6
Cost estimates based on three points with an assumed distribution provide an
expected cost and clarify the range of uncertainty around the expected cost.
The accuracy of single-point activity cost estimates may be improved by
considering estimation uncertainty and risk and using three estimates to define
an approximate range for an activity‘s cost:

• Most likely (M): The cost of the activity, based on realistic effort assessment for
the required work and any predicted expenses.
• Optimistic (O): The activity cost based on analysis of the best-case scenario for
 the activity.
• Pessimistic (P): The activity cost based on analysis of the worst-case scenario for
the activity.

Depending on the assumed distribution of values within the range of the three
estimates the expected cost, cE, can be calculated using a formula. Two
commonly used formulas are triangular and beta distributions. The formulas are:

Triangular Distribution
E = (O+M+P)/3
Beta Distribution (from a traditional PERT analysis)
E = (O+4M+P)/6
Cost estimates based on three points with an assumed distribution provide an
expected cost and clarify the range of uncertainty around the expected cost.

6) Data Analysis Method

A data analysis technique used in this process includes but is not limited to
alternatives analysis. Alternatives analysis is used to evaluate identified options
in order to select the options or approaches to use to execute and perform the
work of the project. Alternatives analysis assists in providing the best solution to
perform the project activities, within the defined constraints.

Instead of overestimating each cost, money is budgeted for dealing with

unplanned but statistically predictable cost increases. Funds allocated for this
purpose are called contingency reserves.

7) Project Management Information System Method

Project management information systems can include resource management
software that can help plan, organize, and manage resource pools and develop
resource estimates.
Depending on the sophistication of the software, resource breakdown
structures, resource availability, resource rates, and various resource calendars
can be designed to assist in optimizing resource utilization.

8) Decision-Making Method
Some decision techniques are unanimity, majority, plurality, points allocation,
and dictatorship. For unanimity, everyone must agree; there is a shared
consensus. A majority or plurality is usually determined by a vote. For a majority,
the decision must be agreed to by more than half the participants.
 Purpose of Construction Cost Estimation
Owner’s Purpose of Cost Estimation
-Making investment decision in the conceptual stage.
-Negotiate and finalize the contract at the implementation phase.
-To implement cost control measures.

Contractor‘s Purpose of Cost Estimate

-Determine project cost and profit.
-To Implement cost control measure.
-To develop data base for that can be used for future project.

Engineer‘s Purpose of Estimate

-Provide the owner with probable estimate.
-Evaluate alternatives.
Types of Construction Cost Estimation
Following are the different types of construction cost estimation:

1. Preliminary Cost Estimation

-A cost prediction based solely on size and/or capacity of a proposed project.
-Before any engineering or design is completed.
-Rely on broad data from already executed similar project
-relate cost in rupees to the main capacity/size parameter
-number of beds in hospital
-square feet of office space
-number of students in school
Advantages of Preliminary Estimates

-Allows a quick determination of the feasibility of a project

-A quick screening on alternatives, etc. (e.g., should it be a concrete building
or a steel building).
Purpose of Preliminary Estimates:

-Ranking alternatives
-Evaluate economics and financial feasibility
-As a check on more detailed estimates

2. Unit Price Cost Estimation

 Unit prices are obtained from data on projects already performed. Cost of
labor, material, and equipment for all units of work are added together and
divided by the number of units involved.
3. Assembly or Conceptual Cost Estimation

-Performed when conceptual design decisions are being made.

-Work package concept can be used to determine the element or assembly to
be studied
-We need a breakdown of cost of a completed project into its functional
elements to:
-Find the relationship between element cost and project cost
-Distribution of cost between constituent elements (sq. feet of
4. Detailed or Definitive Cost Estimation

-Prepared after drawings and specification are completed.

-Requires a complete quantity takeoff based on drawing and the complete set
of contract documents
-Need information on labor rate “productivity”, material cost, cost of renting
or purchasing equipment
Factors influencing Construction Cost Estimation
1. Construction Project Time

-We base our estimate on the cost of existing -projects that were built in the
past
-Price-level changes over time
-We need to project costs of future projects
-Many organizations publish construction cost data on regular basis.
2. Cost Indices
Used to update old cost information
Uses of Cost Indices

-To update known historical costs for new estimates

-To estimate replacement cost for specific assets
-To provide for contract escalation
Limitations

-They represent composite data, average of many projects.

-They fail to recognize technological changes.
 -There is a reporting time log.
Cost of new facility = cost of old facility x (new cost index/old cost index)
To predict future cost

F = P (1 + i)n

F = future cost

P = present cost
i = predicted rate of cost escalation per period

n = number of periods (years)

3. Construction Project Location

-Some factors affecting cost in different locations are:

1) Transport cost
Taxes
2) Labor supply and
3) local productivity
4) Codes and local
inspection
-Construction costs also vary in different regions of the USA.
-ENR and Means
publishes periodically
the indices of local
construction costs in
the major cities.
4. Project Size

-As the quantity built increases, the unit cost decreases,

Size Factor = (Proposed Size/Comparison Size)

UCM = Unit Cost Multiplier
UCM = SF-1
6. Other Factors

Hard to quantify but should be evaluated

-Quality
-Soil condition
-Weather Condition
-Competition
-Productivity

Table 4.1 represents highway construction cost indices and inflation trends
based on data received from
MDT. STE calculated yearly inflation trends by evaluating the percent change in
cost index from one year
to the next.
Table 4.1 MDT Reported Highway Construction Cost Indices and STE
Calculated Inflation Rates

DATA DESCRIPTION AND ANALYSIS

The ROCKS database was used for this research. This database contains road
works cost data from 65 developing countries. Among these countries Poland
and Thailand have a relatively large number of projects. For this reason they
were chosen in this study to investigate the relationship between project cost
and other variables such as work activity, terrain type, road parameters etc.

The quality of the available database influences estimation accuracy

regardless of the method used. Two methods were used to increase the
quality of the ROCKS database. One was filling in missing data by using the
expectation-maximization method and the other by generating synthetic data
by using Road Construction Cost (RCC) models (Tsunokawa, 1983).

Rcc Models.

New construction and reconstruction projects have the greatest share of

construction quantities such as site preparation, earthwork and drainage.
Prediction of these construction quantities can be done using the Road
Construction Cost (RCC) model. RCC models were developed to predict
physical quantities of an average site clearing/grubbing and earthwork
volume. On the basis of a recommendation made by Tsunokawa K. (1987)
following empirical relationship is used to predict the approximate area of
site clearing and grubbing:
New construction

ACG=1770 exp (0.0278 GRF) + 1610 exp (-0.0144 GRF) RW

Where:
EWV – The volume of earthwork per unit length of road, in m3/km H – The
effective height of earthwork, in meters, given by
H = 1.41 + 0.129G + 0.0139GRF
G – The rise plus fall differential, in m/km, given by
G=GRF – RF
RF – The road rise plus fall, in m/km
RF is usually intended to be smoother than GRF. Therefore, it was assumed in
this study that, in general RF is approximately equal to 80% of GRF. ACG and
EWV are developed in relation to terrain type and road width. In the ROCKS
database terrain is presented in categorically, for example: flat, rolling, hilly
and mountainous. In order to convert these categorical values to numerical
values, the following range of GRF values were assumed in this study

Multiple regression model (MR)

Regression estimation models are well established and widely used in cost
estimation. They are effective due to a well-defined mathematical, as well as
being able to explain the significance of each variable and relationship
between independent variables. Basically, regression models are intended to
find the linear combination of independent variables which best correlates
with independent variables. The regression equation is expressed as follows:

Y = C + b1X1 + b2X3 + …+ bkXk

Where:
C – regression constant; b1,b2,…,bk – regression estimates; X1,…,Xk –
independent variables; Y – dependent variable.
The variables descriptions are mentioned in table 1 and table 2 for Poland
and Thailand respectively. The goal was to estimate regression coefficients of
equation (1.5). SPSS statistical tool was employed to perform regression
analysis. The adjusted R - square value (R2) is equal to -0.82 for both cases
Poland and Thailand. To test significance of model ANOVA (F test) was
performed.

4. ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Artificial neural networks have been applied to almost every application area
where a data set is available and a good solution is sought. Artificial neural
 networks can cope with noisy data, missing data, imprecise or corrupted
data, and still produce a good solution (Nikola K., 1998). Among supervised
learning artificial neural networks multilayer perceptron (MLP) with
backpropagation algorithm (further used as ANN) achieved popularity in
numerous research areas and this type ANN was tested in this paper. One of
the reasons for this was that it is a pioneer artificial neural network which
showed promise to solve ill-defined, complicated, complex problems which
are hard to describe in mathematical formula or expression.

REFERENCES:
1. SEARCH IN INTERNET

2. TEACHERS HELP

3. VARIOUS TYPES OF BOOK:

1. NIRALI PUBLICATION

2. TECH-MAX PUBLICATION BOOK

OUTPUTS OF THE MICROPROJECT

1) we study quality and quantity of Highway Project

Cost and estimating method

2) 2)we study the importance of planning stage of

project development

3) SKILL DEVELOP OF THIS MICROPROJECT

a) understanding

b) communation with group member

C)Unity

d) team work
THANK YOU