HR Planning Final

Post Graduate Diploma in HRM [PGDRM]
HR Planning: Scientific and

Mathematical Estimation
What Is HR
Planning
Copyright @ WARD (www.worldacademy.uk)

1
Strategic HR Planning
• Strategic human resource planning is a process that
identifies current and future human resources needs
for an organization to achieve its goals.
• SHRP goes hand-in-hand with an organization's
overall strategic plan.
Strategic HR Planning
The basic questions to be answered for strategic
planning are:
• Where are we going?
• How will we develop HR strategies to successfully get
there, given the circumstances?
• What skill sets do we need?

2
HRP: Steps
Analyze organizational plan
Supply Forecasting
Demand Forecasting
Estimate net Human resources
For surplus, plan for retrenchment, right sizing
For deficit, plan for recruitment or rethink the organization strategy to right fit

3
Group Work
• You have been advised to prepare HR Plan for your

organization. What information you will ask from which
department?
• What factors you will consider while you prepare HR
plan for your company?
HR Supply Analysis

4
Markov Analysis
Markov Analysis Estimating internal supply involves

much more than simply calculating the number of
employees. Some firms use the Markov analysis
technique to track the pattern of employee movements
through various jobs and develop a transitional
probability matrix for forecasting internal supply by
specific categories, such as position and gender

5
Particulars Store Asstt Store Section Dept. Sales

manage manager manager Manager Associate
r
No of 12 36 96 288 1440
Employee
Turn Over 10% 6% 15% 16% 20%
Promotion 11% 11% 10% 6%
Demotion - - 8% 2%

manag manager manager Manager Associate
Markov Analysis for No of

er
12 36 96 288 1440
Employee
HR Supply Analysis Turn Over
Promotion
10% 6% 15% 16% 20%
11% 11% 10% 6%
Demotion
- - 8% 2%
2003 Store Asstt Store Sec. Mgr Dept. Mgr Sales Exit
2002 Manager Mgr Associate
Store Manager
[12]
Asstt Store
Mgr [36]
Sec Mgr [96]
Dept. Mgr
[288]
Sales
Associate
1440]
Total

6


er
12 36 96 288 1440
Employee
Promotion
10% 6% 15% 16% 20%
11% 11% 10% 6%
Demotion
- - 8% 2%
2003 Store Asstt Store Sec. Mgr Dept. Mgr Sales Exit
Store Manager
[12] 10% = 1
Asstt Store
Mgr [36]
Sec Mgr [96]
Dept. Mgr
[288]
Sales
Associate
1440]
Total


er
12 36 96 288 1440
Employee
Promotion
10% 6% 15% 16% 20%
11% 11% 10% 6%
Demotion
- - 8% 2%
2003 Store Asstt Store Sec. Mgr Dept.Mgr Sales Exit
Store Manager
[12] 90% = 11 10% = 1
Asstt Store
Mgr [36]
Sec Mgr [96]
Dept. Mgr
[288]
Sales
Associate
1440]
Total

7


er
12 36 96 288 1440
Employee
Promotion
10% 6% 15% 16% 20%
11% 11% 10% 6%
Demotion
- - 8% 2%
Store Manager
[12] 90% = 11 10% = 1
Asstt Store
Mgr [36] 6% = 2
Sec Mgr [96]
Dept. Mgr
[288]
Sales
Associate
1440]
Total


er
12 36 96 288 1440
Employee
Promotion
10% 6% 15% 16% 20%
11% 11% 10% 6%
Demotion
- - 8% 2%
Store Manager
[12] 90% = 11 10% = 1
Asstt Store
Mgr [36] 11% = 4 6% = 2
Sec Mgr [96]
Dept. Mgr
[288]
Sales
Associate
1440]
Total

8


er
12 36 96 288 1440
Employee
Promotion
10% 6% 15% 16% 20%
11% 11% 10% 6%
Demotion
- - 8% 2%
Store Manager
[12] 90% = 11 10% = 1
Asstt Store
Mgr [36] 11% = 4 83%= 30 6% = 2
Sec Mgr [96]
Dept. Mgr
[288]
Sales
Associate
1440]
Total


er
12 36 96 288 1440
Employee
Promotion
10% 6% 15% 16% 20%
11% 11% 10% 6%
Demotion
- - 8% 2%
Store Manager
[12] 90% = 11 10% = 1
Asstt Store
Mgr [36] 11% = 4 83%= 30 6% = 2
Sec Mgr [96]
15%= 14
Dept. Mgr
[288]
Sales
Associate
1440]
Total

9


er
12 36 96 288 1440
Employee
Promotion
10% 6% 15% 16% 20%
11% 11% 10% 6%
Demotion
- - 8% 2%
Store Manager
[12] 90% = 11 10% = 1
Asstt Store
Mgr [36] 11% = 4 83%= 30 6% = 2
Sec Mgr [96]
11%= 11 15%= 14
Dept. Mgr
[288]
Sales
Associate
1440]
Total


er
12 36 96 288 1440
Employee
Promotion
10% 6% 15% 16% 20%
11% 11% 10% 6%
Demotion
- - 8% 2%
Store Manager
[12] 90% = 11 10% = 1
Asstt Store
Mgr [36] 11% = 4 83%= 30 6% = 2
Sec Mgr [96]
11%= 11 8%= 8 15%= 14
Dept. Mgr
[288]
Sales
Associate
1440]
Total

10


er
12 36 96 288 1440
Employee
Promotion
10% 6% 15% 16% 20%
11% 11% 10% 6%
Demotion
- - 8% 2%
Store Manager
[12] 90% = 11 10% = 1
Asstt Store
Mgr [36] 11% = 4 83%= 30 6% = 2
Sec Mgr [96]
11%= 11 66% = 63 8%= 8 15%= 14
Dept. Mgr
[288]
Sales
Associate
1440]
Total


er
12 36 96 288 1440
Employee
Promotion
10% 6% 15% 16% 20%
11% 11% 10% 6%
Demotion
- - 8% 2%
Store Manager
[12] 90% = 11 10% = 1
Asstt Store
Mgr [36] 11% = 4 83%= 30 6% = 2
Sec Mgr [96]
11%= 11 66% = 63 8%= 8 15%= 14
Dept. Mgr
[288]
16% = 46
Sales
Associate
1440]
Total

11


er
12 36 96 288 1440
Employee
Promotion
10% 6% 15% 16% 20%
11% 11% 10% 6%
Demotion
- - 8% 2%
Store Manager
[12] 90% = 11 10% = 1
Asstt Store
Mgr [36] 11% = 4 83%= 30 6% = 2
Sec Mgr [96]
11%= 11 66% = 63 8%= 8 15%= 14
Dept. Mgr
[288]
10% = 29 16% = 46
Sales
Associate
1440]
Total


er
12 36 96 288 1440
Employee
Promotion
10% 6% 15% 16% 20%
11% 11% 10% 6%
Demotion
- - 8% 2%
Store Manager
[12] 90% = 11 10% = 1
Asstt Store
Mgr [36] 11% = 4 83%= 30 6% = 2
Sec Mgr [96]
11%= 11 66% = 63 8%= 8 15%= 14
Dept. Mgr
[288]
10% = 29 2%= 6 16% = 46
Sales
Associate
1440]
Total

12


er
12 36 96 288 1440
Employee
Promotion
10% 6% 15% 16% 20%
11% 11% 10% 6%
Demotion
- - 8% 2%
Store Manager
[12] 90% = 11 10% = 1
Asstt Store
Mgr [36] 11% = 4 83%= 30 6% = 2
Sec Mgr [96]
11%= 11 66% = 63 8%= 8 15%= 14
Dept. Mgr
[288]
10% = 29 72%= 207 2%= 6 16% = 46
Sales
Associate
1440]
Total


er
12 36 96 288 1440
Employee
Promotion
10% 6% 15% 16% 20%
11% 11% 10% 6%
Demotion
- - 8% 2%
Store Manager
[12] 90% = 11 10% = 1
Asstt Store
Mgr [36] 11% = 4 83%= 30 6% = 2
Sec Mgr [96]
11%= 11 66% = 63 8%= 8 15%= 14
Dept. Mgr
[288]
10% = 29 72%= 207 2%= 6 16% = 46
Sales Associate
1440]
20%= 288
Total

13


er
12 36 96 288 1440
Employee
Promotion
10% 6% 15% 16% 20%
11% 11% 10% 6%
Demotion
- - 8% 2%
Store Manager
[12] 90% = 11 10% = 1
Asstt Store
Mgr [36] 11% = 4 83%= 30 6% = 2
Sec Mgr [96]
11%= 11 66% = 63 8%= 8 15%= 14
Dept. Mgr
[288]
10% = 29 72%= 207 2%= 6 16% = 46
Sales Associate
1440] 6%= 86 20%= 288
Total


er
12 36 96 288 1440
Employee
Promotion
10% 6% 15% 16% 20%
11% 11% 10% 6%
Demotion
- - 8% 2%
Store Manager
[12] 90% = 11 10% = 1
Asstt Store
Mgr [36] 11% = 4 83%= 30 6% = 2
Sec Mgr [96]
11%= 11 66% = 63 8%= 8 15%= 14
Dept. Mgr
[288]
10% = 29 72%= 207 2%= 6 16% = 46
Sales Associate
1440] 6%= 86 74%=1066 20%= 288
Total

14


er
12 36 96 288 1440
Employee
Promotion
10% 6% 15% 16% 20%
11% 11% 10% 6%
Demotion
- - 8% 2%
Store Manager
[12] 90% = 11 10% = 1
Asstt Store
Mgr [36] 11% = 4 83%= 30 6% = 2
Sec Mgr [96]
11%= 11 66% = 63 8%= 8 15%= 14
Dept. Mgr
[288]
10% = 29 72%= 207 2%= 6 16% = 46
Sales Associate
1440] 6%= 86 74%=1066 20%= 288
Total
15 41 92 301 1072 351
HR Demand Forecasting

15
HR Demand Analysis: Steps

Calculate demand of Line People
Calculate span of supervision for Line people
Calculate direct support People
Calculate indirect support People
Calculate Management staff
Calculate total staff position wise
Consideration while HR Demand Analysis
Number of staff as per calculation

Turnover rate
Absenteeism rate/ tendency
Employee leave policy
Employee leave tendency
Cost to position

16
Consideration while HR Demand Analysis
Importance of the position
Succession planning
Expansion forecasting
Market analysis/ forecasting
Technological up gradation
Forecasting HR Demand: Trend Analysis/ Index Analysis

The study of a firm’s past employment needs over a period of years to predict future needs.
A B C D E
Year Sales [,000] No of Index Avrg Index
Employee
1
2
3
4
5
6

17

A B C D E
Employee
1 2002 2800 155
2 2003 3050 171
3 2004 3195 166
4 2005 3300 177
5 2006 3500 [assumed]
6 2007 3600 [assumed]

A B C D E
Employee
1 2002 2800 155 18.06 [B1/C1]
2 2003 3050 171
3 2004 3195 166
4 2005 3300 177
5 2006 3500 [assumed]
6 2007 3600 [assumed]

18

A B C D E
Employee
1 2002 2800 155 18.06 [B1/C1]
2 2003 3050 171 17.83 [B2/C2]
3 2004 3195 166
4 2005 3300 177
5 2006 3500 [assumed]
6 2007 3600 [assumed]

A B C D E
Employee
1 2002 2800 155 18.06 [B1/C1]
2 2003 3050 171 17.83 [B2/C2]
3 2004 3195 166 19.25 [B3/C3]
4 2005 3300 177
5 2006 3500 [assumed]
6 2007 3600 [assumed]

19

A B C D E
Employee
1 2002 2800 155 18.06 [B1/C1]
2 2003 3050 171 17.83 [B2/C2]
3 2004 3195 166 19.25 [B3/C3]
4 2005 3300 177 18.64 [B4/C4]
5 2006 3500 [assumed]
6 2007 3600 [assumed]

A B C D E
Employee
1 2002 2800 155 18.06 [B1/C1] 18.45
2 2003 3050 171 17.83 [B2/C2] [D1+D2+D3
3 2004 3195 166 19.25 [B3/C3] +D4]/4
4 2005 3300 177 18.64 [B4/C4]
5 2006 3500 [assumed]
6 2007 3600 [assumed]

20

A B C D E
Employee
1 2002 2800 155 18.06 [B1/C1] 18.45
2 2003 3050 171 17.83 [B2/C2] [D1+D2+D3
3 2004 3195 166 19.25 [B3/C3] +D4]/4
4 2005 3300 177 18.64 [B4/C4]
5 2006 3500 [assumed] 18.64
6 2007 3600 [assumed] 18.64
Either use last year index or average index or near round figure. As the average of first 4
years is 18.45 and the last year index is 18.64, so we are using last year index.

A B C D E
Employee
1 2002 2800 155 18.06 [B1/C1] 18.45
2 2003 3050 171 17.83 [B2/C2] [D1+D2+D3
3 2004 3195 166 19.25 [B3/C3] +D4]/4
4 2005 3300 177 18.64 [B4/C4]
5 2006 3500 [assumed] 188 [B5/D4] 18.64
6 2007 3600 [assumed] 193 [B6/D4] 18.64
Either use last year index or average index or near round figure. As the average of first 4
years is 18.45 and the last year index is 18.64, so we are using last year index.

21
Forecasting HR Demand
• Ratio analysis
• A forecasting technique for determining future staff needs by using
ratios between a causal factor and the number of employees needed.
• Assumes that the relationship between the causal factor and staffing
needs is constant .For example, suppose a salesperson traditionally
generates $500 000 in sales and that plans call for increasing the
firm’s sales by $3 million next year. Then, if the sales revenue &
salespeople ratio remains the same, six new salespeople would be
required (each of whom produces an extra $500 000 in sales).
The Delphi Technique

Leader identifies judgment issues and develops questionnaire.
Prospective participants are identified and asked to cooperate.
Leaders send questionnaire to willing participants, who record

their judgments and recommendations and return the
questionnaire.
Leaders compiles summaries and reproduces participants’

responses.
Leader sends the compiled list of judgment to all participants.
Participants comment on each other’s ideas and propose a final

judgment.
Leader looks
for consensus
Leader accepts consensus judgment as group’s choice.

22
Demand Forecasting of Line People

Production Focused
Productivity Measurement Method for

Manpower demand forecasting
Following data is available for a manufacturing
concern for the year 2014:
Detail Number
Production for the year 2014 2,400,000 unit
Average no of employee during the year 400
No of weeks works during the year 49
Average hours per week per worker 40
Please calculate the Manpower requirement for the year

2015 if the production target is 36,30,000 unit and
expected productivity is 10% higher than 2014.

23
For the year 2014:Total hours per worker per year = 49*40 = 1960 man-hour
Total Man-hours per year = 400*1960 = 784,000 man hour

Productivity or Production per man hour = 2,400,000/784,000 = 3 units per man hour
For the year 2015:
Target Production = 3,630,000 unit
Target productivity = 3+ 3*10% = 3.3
So, required man-hour in 2015 = 3,630,000/3.3 = 1,100,000 man hour

Total hours per worker per year = 1960
Therefore, required number of manpower in production department =
1,100,000/1960 = 561
Additional requirement = 561-400 = 161
JOB Analysis Method
• Do the Job Analysis

• Identify the work volume
• Identify the number of required person
• Identify the required Competencies

24
Thanks

25

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Post Graduate Diploma in HRM [PGDRM]

HR Planning: Scientific and

Copyright @ WARD (www.worldacademy.uk)

Copyright @ WARD (www.worldacademy.uk)

Estimate net Human resources

For surplus, plan for retrenchment, right sizing

Copyright @ WARD (www.worldacademy.uk)

• You have been advised to prepare HR Plan for your

Copyright @ WARD (www.worldacademy.uk)

Markov Analysis Estimating internal supply involves

Copyright @ WARD (www.worldacademy.uk)

Particulars Store Asstt Store Section Dept. Sales

Particulars Store Asstt Store Section Dept. Sales

Markov Analysis for No of

HR Supply Analysis Turn Over

Copyright @ WARD (www.worldacademy.uk)

Particulars Store Asstt Store Section Dept. Sales

Markov Analysis for No of

HR Supply Analysis Turn Over

Particulars Store Asstt Store Section Dept. Sales

Markov Analysis for No of

HR Supply Analysis Turn Over

Copyright @ WARD (www.worldacademy.uk)

Particulars Store Asstt Store Section Dept. Sales

Markov Analysis for No of

HR Supply Analysis Turn Over

Particulars Store Asstt Store Section Dept. Sales

Markov Analysis for No of

HR Supply Analysis Turn Over

Copyright @ WARD (www.worldacademy.uk)

Particulars Store Asstt Store Section Dept. Sales

Markov Analysis for No of

HR Supply Analysis Turn Over

Particulars Store Asstt Store Section Dept. Sales

Markov Analysis for No of

HR Supply Analysis Turn Over

Copyright @ WARD (www.worldacademy.uk)

Particulars Store Asstt Store Section Dept. Sales

Markov Analysis for No of

HR Supply Analysis Turn Over

Particulars Store Asstt Store Section Dept. Sales

Markov Analysis for No of

HR Supply Analysis Turn Over

Copyright @ WARD (www.worldacademy.uk)

Particulars Store Asstt Store Section Dept. Sales

Markov Analysis for No of

HR Supply Analysis Turn Over

Particulars Store Asstt Store Section Dept. Sales

Markov Analysis for No of

HR Supply Analysis Turn Over

Copyright @ WARD (www.worldacademy.uk)

Particulars Store Asstt Store Section Dept. Sales

Markov Analysis for No of

HR Supply Analysis Turn Over

Particulars Store Asstt Store Section Dept. Sales

Markov Analysis for No of

HR Supply Analysis Turn Over

Copyright @ WARD (www.worldacademy.uk)

Particulars Store Asstt Store Section Dept. Sales

Markov Analysis for No of

HR Supply Analysis Turn Over

Particulars Store Asstt Store Section Dept. Sales

Markov Analysis for No of