Greening or Browning: A Spatial Analysis of Desertification and Land Degradation

Around the Sahara Desert

By Marcella Willett

Introduction
Desertification is the process of land deteriorating in arid or dry areas. It is caused by a
combination of factors including climate and land use, especially agricultural activities (Geist &
Lambin, 2004). This leads to a decrease in vegetation and an increase in bare, rocky, or sandy
soil (Geist & Lambin, 2004).
Anthropogenic climate change is likely an important factor in desertification. 20th century
climate change has caused certain regions, including Africa, to become more arid (D’Odorico et
al., 2013). Climate change has also caused an increase in the frequency of droughts (D’Odorico
et al., 2013). This increase in dryness and drought frequency is expected to lead to
desertification (D’Odorico et al., 2013). A 2020 study found that anthropogenic climate change
has generally caused an increase in vegetation in drylands because of the increase in CO2, but
has contributed to desertification in 12.55% of drylands (Burrell et al., 2020).
There has been a lot of concern about desertification in Africa, with one study estimating
that 46% of Africa is vulnerable to desertification (Reich et al., 2001). Much of the scientific
debate has been focused on the Sahel, a region south of the Sahara prone to droughts (Dardel
et al., 2014; Nicholson et al., 1998). In the 1970s, a severe drought in the Sahel drew attention
to the idea of desertification in the region, and many scientists as well as a UN report proposed
that a large amount of land in the region was being lost because of human-caused
desertification (Nicholson et al., 1998). However, many of the changes observed were likely
caused by the drought, and other scientists challenged the idea of an expanding desert in the
Sahel (Nicholson et al., 1998). More recent research suggests that most of the Sahel has been
experiencing a “re-greening,” or increase in vegetation cover since the 1980s (Dardel et al.
2014). Despite these findings, more localized land degradation in the Sahel is still a concern
(Turner et al., 2021).
The goal of this research is to assess the amount of desertification occurring in the
Northern half of Africa. Specifically, this research will focus on quantifying the change in the
amount of brown, less vegetated lands compared to green, vegetated lands, as a proxy for
desertification, between 1984 and 2020. Based on the studies described above, I would expect
to find an increase in overall vegetated areas in the Sahel region, but potentially some localized
areas that have instead changed from green to brown. However, the amount of desertification or
greening in areas outside of the Sahel is more uncertain.

Methods
I first collected two satellite images of the same region of Africa, one from 12/30/1984
and one from 12/30/2020, using Google Earth Pro’s Historical Images feature (Google Earth,
2020; Google Earth, 1984). I analyzed these images using Fiji ImageJ (Schindelin et al., 2012)
to determine the change in dry or desert land. To do this I used the color threshold tool to select
the pixels that fell within a certain range of RGB color values. The range of these values was
decided by finding the highest and lowest RGB values of a range of pixels that I arbitrarily
determined to be in “more brown” areas. The same threshold ranges (125-255, 116-255,
112-230) were used for both images to provide consistency in the analysis. Therefore, even
though the ranges of values were arbitrary, this analysis should still provide an estimate of
change because of the consistency between what was determined to be “brown” in both
images.
To set the scale of the images, I measured the pixels of the scale bar from Google Earth
in ImageJ and corresponded that to the mile distance listed on the scale bar. Once I had set the
scale and the thresholds, I measured the area of the images using ImageJ’s Measure tool.
However, the measurement tool was not working with the color thresholds. To solve this, I set
the thresholded area determined by the color threshold to be white for threshold values and
black for the rest of the image, converted the image to an 8-bit (Black and White) format, and
then used the Black and White Threshold tool to measure the area. Through this method, I was
able to obtain measurement of the area of land that fell between the RGB threshold values.

Results and Discussion

Fig.1. Original satellite images of the Northern half Africa in 1984 (left) and 2020 (right) taken
from Google Earth (Google Earth, 2020; Google Earth, 1984)

Fig. 2. The same images of Africa, with a red threshold showing the more brown, less vegetated
areas in 1984 (left) and 2020 (right)
Table 1. Comparison of amount of brown lands in the region analyzed in 1984 and 2020
Area in 1984 Area in 2020 Area Gained

24,805,613.805 km2 24,934,449.010 km2 128,835.205 km2

The original images show a visible increase in the browner areas especially around
Nigeria and Tanzania (Figure 1). This increase becomes even more apparent in the thresholded
images (Figure 2). The analysis found an increase of 128,835 km2 in the area of brown lands in
1984 compared to 2020 (Table 1). This indicates that the vegetation cover in the area measured
decreased over the course of that time period, potentially indicating desertification.
This result is different from other studies finding an increase in vegetation cover in the
Sahel region between the 1980s and 2014 (Dardel et al. 2014). However, the vegetation
increases in the Sahel may not have been visible in this threshold analysis because the
increase in vegetation likely still fell within the areas classified as “brown” in this analysis, given
the fact that most of the Sahel region appears to be included within this threshold. This means
that this analysis would not be able to detect the increase in vegetation because the areas both
before and after the increase fell within the threshold.
This analysis focused on a much larger area of land than only the Sahel region which
could explain why it found an increase in brown lands overall, even though this effect was not
observed in the Sahel region specifically. Looking at the thresholded areas (Figure 2), the main
increases in brown land appear to occur around Nigeria and Tanzania, which are both south of
the Sahel region. This finding in Tanzania is supported by a 2021 study of the Kiteto and
Kongwa regions of Tanzania that found 27% of the land in those regions degraded between
2000 and 2019, and that 10.9 - 14.7% of the tree cover was cut down during that period (Reith
et. al, 2021). Both of these factors could contribute to the increase in brown lands in Tanzania.
An increase of brown lands in Nigeria is supported by a 2020 study that found that 45,945.08
km2 of vegetation cover was lost in Northern Nigeria between 1984 and 2016 (Nwilo et al.,
2020). The study also found that the decrease in vegetation correlates with an increase in
temperature, precipitation, and population density (Nwilo et al., 2020).
The main limitation of this analysis is that it included only two images of the region. This
means that the changes in green lands between the images could be due to variation in
precipitation and other factors rather than large scale desertification. Another limitation is that
“brown” and “green” lands might not directly indicate the amount of vegetation cover or
desertification in the area and that the values of what land was considered “brown” compared to
“green” were arbitrarily chosen.
Desertification has many negative effects on both the ecosystem and the people who
depend on it. By definition, desertification degrades land and decreases land productivity. This
makes it difficult for plants to grow, causing a decrease in vegetation (Geist & Lambin, 2004).
People living in the regions of Africa vulnerable to desertification depend on the land and
ecosystems for agriculture, livestock, fisheries, bushmeat, and fuelwood (Nwilo et al., 2020).
Since land productivity is decreased by desertification (Geist & Lambin, 2004), less crops can
be grown in the area. This can create greater food insecurity among those communities.
Agriculture and land degradation also form a feedback loop where an increase in land
degradation will cause people to expand their cropland or grazing land further or attempt to
grow more on the same land to compensate, leading to more overexploitation of the land and
land degradation (Geist & Lambin, 2004).
Another harmful effect on ecosystems and human communities is that drought and
desertification could decrease the amount of upper groundwater, streamflow, and underground
water (Medugu et al., 2008). This is seen in the decrease in the surface area of the Lake Chad
basin which serves as a source of freshwater for 20 million people and is depended upon for the
livelihoods of many of the people in the region (Gadzama & Ayuba, 2016).
Desertification also increases albedo by reducing vegetation cover (Calabrò & Magazù,
2016). Simulations have shown that an increase in albedo can reduce the precipitation in an
area leading to a positive feedback loop of increasing desertification (Calabrò & Magazù, 2016;
Nicholson et al., 1998).
One initiative that is trying to combat desertification, land degradation, and other effects
of climate change in the Sahel is the Great Green Wall (O’Connor & Ford, 2014). This project
was originally conceived as planting a band of trees across the Sahel region to prevent
desertification (O’Connor & Ford, 2014; Turner et al., 2021). However, with an increased
understanding of land degradation in the Sahel region as a localized issue rather than large
scale desertification, the proposal has been modified to a combination of more localized projects
focussed on sustainable land management (Turner et al., 2021). The goal of these projects is to
restore areas affected by land degradation, protect the region against climate change, and help
people living in the region by providing jobs and increasing food and water security (Turner et
al., 2021). As of 2020 the initiative had only accomplished 4% of its goal in restoring 100 million
hectares of land (Chloé, 2022) and a 2021 study found that it was also not accomplishing its
social goals of helping vulnerable groups (Turner et al., 2021).
There are several strategies that can be used to combat desertification in these areas of
Africa. Mulching the land with crop residues or other plants can increase soil fertility and
decrease wind and water erosion, but this strategy is limited by the low availability of mulch
material (Wezel & Rath, 2002). Soil fertility can also be improved by using fertilizers and
manure, though availability of these is limited as well (Wezel & Rath, 2002). Growing trees and
shrubs can be used to reduce wind erosion, and barriers of stones or grass can help reduce
water erosion (Wezel & Rath, 2002). These strategies can help increase crop yields and restore
native vegetation in areas suffering from land degradation (D’Odorico et al., 2013). Local
participation in these efforts is extremely important, and efforts to increase local participation
include providing incentives and offering training to local communities (D’Odorico et al., 2013).

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