I.B.

Mathematics HL Option: Poisson & Sampling Distributions

Index:

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Question 1 Question 2

Question 3 Question 4

Question 5

You can access the solutions from the end of each question
Question 1

A supplier of metal rods looks for flaws before it is dispatched to customers. It

knows that the number of flaws follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of
3.4 per metre.

a. Determine the probability of exactly 3 flaws in 1 m of metal rod. Give

your answer correct to 3 significant figures.

b. Determine the probability of at least 1 flaw in 4m of metal rod. Give your

answer correct to 6 significant figures.

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Solution to question 1

a. Let X be the r.v. ‘the number of flaws per 1 m of metal rod’.

e − λ λ x e ( 3.4 )
−3.4 x

X ∼ Po ( 3.4 ) and p ( X = x ) = = .
x! x!
e −3.4 ( 3.4 )
3

p ( X = 3) = = 0.219 to 3.s.f.
3!

This can be solved using the graphics calculator. In the DIST menu,
select B:poissonpdf( ENTER. The parameters are poissonpdf( µ, x )

Enter poissonpdf(3.4, 3) ENTERand the calculator gives

p ( X = 3 ) = 0.219

b. Let Y be the r.v. ‘the number of flaws per 4 m of metal rod’.

(13.6 ) .
−13.6 y
e−λ λ y e
Y ∼ Po (13.6 ) and p (Y = y ) = =
y! y!
e −13.6 (13.6 )
0

We require p (Y ≥ 1) = 1 − p (Y = 0 ) = 1 − = 0.999999 correct

0!
to 6 s.f.

With graphics calculator enter 1 - .Enter the DISTR menu, select

C:poissoncdf( µ to 13.6, x to 0) ENTER he calculator gives p ( X ≥ 1)
= 0.999999 .

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Question 2

Two telephone operators A and B in a hotel receive an average of 15 and 12

phones calls respectively per hour throughout the working day.

a. Find the probability that operator A will receive 4 phone calls between
9.00 a.m. and 9.15 a.m.

b. Find the probability that operator B will receive 3 or less phone calls
between 9.15 a.m. and 9.45 a.m.

c. Find the probability that between them the operators will answer at least
3 calls between 10.00 a.m. and 10.20 a.m.

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Solution to question 2

a. Let X be the r.v. ‘the number of calls answered per 15 minutes by

operator A’.
x
⎛ 15 ⎞
15
−
4
e−λ λ x
e ⎜ 4 ⎟
⎛ 15 ⎞ ⎝ ⎠ .
X ∼ Po ⎜ ⎟ and p ( X = x ) = =
⎝ 4 ⎠ x! x!

4
⎛ 15 ⎞
15
−
4
e ⎜ 4 ⎟
p ( X = 4) = ⎝ ⎠ = 0.194 to 3 s.f.
4!

Using the graphics

calculator in the
DISTR menu.

b. Let Y be the r.v. ‘the number of calls answered per 30 minutes by

operator B’.
e−λ λ y e ( 6)
−6 y
⎛ 12 ⎞
Y ∼ Po ⎜ ⎟ ∼ Po ( 6 ) and p (Y = y ) = = .
⎝ 2 ⎠ y! y!
We require p (Y ≤ 3 ) = p (Y = 0 ) + p (Y = 1) + p (Y = 2 ) + p (Y = 3 )
e −6 ( 6 ) e −6 ( 6 ) e −6 ( 6 ) e −6 ( 6 )
0 1 2 3

= + + +
0! 1! 2! 3!
= e −6 (1 + 6 + 18 + 36 )
= 61e −6
= 0.151 to 3 s.f.

Using the graphics calculator enter the DISTR menu, select

C:poissoncdf( µ to 6, x to 3) ENTER he calculator gives
p (Y ≤ 3 ) = 0.151 .
.

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c. Let T be the r.v. the total number of calls answers by both operators in
20 minutes.

e−λ λ t e (9 )
−9 t
⎛ 15 12 ⎞
T ∼ Po ⎜ + ∼ Po ( 5 + 4 ) ∼ Po ( 9 ) and p (T = t ) = =
⎝ 3 3 ⎟⎠ t! t!

We require p (T ≥ 3 ) = 1 − p (T ≤ 2 )
= 1 − ⎡⎣ p (T = 0 ) + p (T = 1) + p (T = 2 ) ⎤⎦
⎡ e −9 ( 9 )0 e −9 ( 9 )1 e −9 ( 9 )2 ⎤
= 1− ⎢ + + ⎥
⎢⎣ 0! 1! 2! ⎥
⎦
⎛ 81 ⎞
= 1 − e −9 ⎜ 1 + 9 + ⎟
⎝ 2⎠
= 0.994 to 3 s.f.

With graphics calculator enter 1 - .Enter the DISTR menu, select

C:poissoncdf( µ to 9, x to 2) ENTER he calculator gives p ( X ≥ 3 )
= 0.994 .

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Question 3

The distribution of the weight of sugar bags is normally distributed with mean
1kg with standard deviation 8 grams.

a. What is the probability that a randomly chosen sugar bag has a weight of
less than 988 grams.

b. What is the probability that the average weight of a randomly chosen set
of 4 sugar bags has a weight less than 988 grams.

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Solution to question 3

a. Let X be the r.v. ‘the weight of bags of sugar’

( ) (
X ∼ N µ, σ 2 ∼ N 1000, 8 2 )
we require (
N 1000, 82 )
⎛ 988 − 1000 ⎞
p ( X < 988 ) = p ⎜ Z < ⎟
⎝ 8 ⎠
= p ( z < −1.5 )
= 1 − φ (1.5 )
-1.5 0
= 0.0668 to 3.s.f. 988 1000

In the DISTR menu select

2:normalcdf.

⎛ σ2 ⎞ ⎛ 82 ⎞
b. X ~ N ⎜ µ, ⎟ ∼ N ⎜ 1000, ⎟
⎝ n ⎠ ⎝ 4⎠
⎛ ⎞
⎜ 988 − 1000 ⎟ ⎛ 82 ⎞
( )
p X < 988 = p ⎜ Z <
8
⎟
N ⎜ 1000, ⎟
⎝ 4⎠
⎜ ⎟
⎜ ⎟
⎝ 4 ⎠
= p ( z < −3 )
= 1− φ (3) -3 0
988 1000
= 0.00135 to 3.s.f.

In the DISTR menu select

2:normalcdf.

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Question 4

The lengths of metal rods in a factory are normally distributed with a mean of
1 m and standard deviation 9 cm. Random samples of n metal rods are taken.

a. If X is the r.v. ‘the length of metal rods in a factory’, write down the
distribution of X

b. A sample size of 25 metal rods is selected at random. Find the

probability that the average length is more than 105 cm.

c. Find the smallest possible sample size if the probability that the average
length exceeds 105 cm is less than 0.01.

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Solution to question 4

⎛ σ2 ⎞ ⎛ 92 ⎞
a. ( ) ( )
X ∼ N µ, σ 2 ∼ N 100, 92 and X ~ N ⎜ µ, ⎟ ∼ N ⎜ 100, ⎟.
⎝ n ⎠ ⎝ n ⎠
b. ( )
We require p X > 105 with n = 25
⎛ ⎞
⎜ 105 − 100 ⎟
( )
p X > 105 = p ⎜ Z >
9
⎟ ⎛
N ⎜ 100,
92 ⎞
⎟
⎜ ⎟ ⎝ 25 ⎠
⎜ ⎟
⎝ 25 ⎠
= 1 − φ ( 2.778 )
= 0.00274
0 2.778
100 105

c. From the graph

( )
p X > 105 = 1 − φ ( z ) = 0.1
⇒ φ ( z ) = 0.99 ⎛ 92 ⎞
N ⎜ 100, ⎟
⎝ n ⎠
In the DISTR menu in the graphics
Calculator, select 3:invNorm( set
area to 0.99, as we use the standard
normal curve we need not enter µ or σ .
The calculator gives z = 2.3263 . 0 z
100 105

x −µ 105 − 100 5 n
Now z = ⇒ 2.3263 = ⇒ 2.3263 =
σ 9 9
n n
( 9 )( 2.3263 ) ⇒ n =
( 4.18734 )
2
⇒ n= = 17.5…
5
The smallest sample size is 18

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Question 5

Each day José goes to the library to do his homework. The time taken to
travel to the library is normally distributed with mean 50 minutes and standard
deviation 5 minutes. The time spent in the library is also normally distributed
with mean 1 hour and standard deviation 10 minutes.

a. Find the probability that José takes less than 40 minutes to travel to the
library.

b. Find the probability that José spends more than 1 hour and 15 minutes
in the library.

c. Find the probability that he spends less time in the library than travelling
to the library.

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Solution to question 5

a. Let T be the r.v. ‘the time that José takes to travel to the library’.

(
T ∼ N 50, 5 2 ) (
T ∼ N 50, 52 )
We require
⎛ 40 − 50 ⎞
p (T < 40 ) = p ⎜ Z < ⎟
⎝ 5 ⎠
= p ( z < −2 )
= 1− φ ( 2)
= 0.02275 -2 0
40 50
= 0.0228

b. Let L be the r.v. ‘the time that José spends in the library’

(
L ∼ N 60, 10 2 ) (
L ∼ N 75, 102 )
⎛ 75 − 60 ⎞
We require p ( L > 75 ) = p ⎜ Z >
⎝ 10 ⎟⎠
= p ( Z > 1.5 )
= 1 − φ (1.5 )
= 0.06681 0 1.5
60 75
= 0.0668

c. We require p (T > L ) = p (T − L > 0 ) . Now T − L ∼ N ( 50 − 60, 5 2 + 10 2 )

(Note more time travelling than in the library ⇒ T > L ).
⎛ 0 + 10 ⎞
p (T − L > 0 ) = p ⎜ Z > ⎟ L − T ∼ N ( −10, 125 )
⎝ 125 ⎠
= p ( Z > 0.8944…)
= 1 − φ ( 0.8944…)
= 0.18555
= 0.186

0 -0.894
-10 0

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