I.B.

Mathematics HL Option: Confidence Intervals

Index:

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Question 1 Question 2

Question 3 Question 4

Question 5 Question 6

Question 7 Question 8

Question 9

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Question 1

The speed of cars passing a checkpoint is known to be normally distributed

random variable with mean µ and standard deviation is
3 km/h. It is required to have 95% symmetrical confidence interval for µ with total
width less that 1.5 km/h. find the least number of cars that should be checked in
order to achieve this.

In another test, a 99% confidence interval was found to be (39.778 km/h, 42.221
km/h) and the sample mean x = 41 km/h. Find the sample size required to
achieve this.

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Solution to question 1

Let X be the random variable ‘the speed of cars passing a checkpoint’.

X ~ N ( µ, σ 2 ) ⇒ X ~ N ( µ, 3 2 )

For a symmetric 95% confidence interval

We can see from the diagram that

σ 3
Width = 2 × z = 2 × 1.96
n n

From tables -1.96 0 1.96

or calculator
σ
Width = 2 × z
n
Now we require the total width to be less than 1.5 km/h.

3 11.76 11.76
2 × 1.96 < 1.5 ⇒ < 1.5 n> = 7.84
n n 1.5
n > 61.46

Therefore 62 are needed in the sample.

Now we have a 99% confidence interval, which is (39.778 km/h, 42.221 km/h)
and sample mean x = 41 km/h. We require the sample size to achieve this

Using the upper limit

σ 3
x +z ⇒ 41 + 2.576 = 42.221
n n
From tables or calculator
2
3 42.221 − 41 ⎛ 3 × 2.576 ⎞
= ⇒n=⎜ ⎟ = 40.059… -2.575 0 2.575
n 2.576 ⎝ 1.221 ⎠

Therefore 41 are needed in the sample.

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Question 2

In a school the heights of the pupils are distributed with mean µ cm and standard
deviation σ cm. A random sample of 200 pupils was taken and a 95%
confidence interval was calculated and was found to be (153.44 cm, 154.55 cm).
Calculate:
a. the sample mean x correct to 3 significant figures,
b. the value of σ correct to 1 significant figure,
c. a symmetric 98% confidence for µ , using your answers from parts a and b.

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Solution to question 2

We are not told whether the distribution is normal.

Now by the Central Limit Theorem we can assume
for large n, that the distribution is normal.

σ
For a 95% confidence interval x ± z
n
σ
Now x + 1.96 = 154.55…1.
200 -1.96 0 1.96

σ
x ± 1.96 = 153.44… 2.
200

Solving simultaneously using the graphics calculator.

x = 153.995 = 154 and σ = 4.004… = 4

For a 98% confidence interval

σ 4
x ±z = 154 ± 2.326
n 2 00
From tables or calculator
(153.34 cm, 154.65 cm).
-2.326 0 2.326

Or using the graphics calculator in the STAT menu, select TESTS followed by
7: ZInterval. Set Inpt to Stats, σ to 4.004, x to 153.995 n to 200 and C-Level to
0.98. Select Calculate followed by ENTER to obtain the confidence interval.

(153.34 cm, 154.65 cm).

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Question 3

The mass in g of bags of rice were found to be as follows

200.1, 198.4, 199.2, 200.0, 203.2, 197.6, 198.6, 201.2

Find a 98% confidence interval for µ .

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Solution to question 3

In this example we do not know the population variance so we have to calculate it

from the data given in the question. We can then calculate the confidence interval
using one of two different formulae, depending on the standard deviation we have
sn s
calculated. x ± t if we have the sample standard deviation sn or x ± t n −1 if
n −1 n
we have calculate the unbiased estimate of the population standard deviation
sn −1 . In the STAT menu, select EDIT and enter the data into L1 and press QUIT.
Re-enter the STAT menu, select CALC followed by 1: 1-Var Stats ENTER. Select
L1 followed by ENTER.

x=
∑ x = 1598.3 = 199.7875
n 8

sn =
∑x 2

− x2 =
319342.61
− 199.78752
n 8
= 1.667…
t(7)
Using the t(n-1) distribution(unknown population
variance) with 7 degrees of freedom then a 98%
confidence interval is given by
sn 1.667…
x ±t = 199.7875 ± 2.998
n −1 8 −1
(197.9 g, 201.68 g). From t-tables
-2.998 0 2.998

Or using the graphics calculator in the STAT menu, select TESTS followed by
8: TInterval. Set Inpt to Data, ENTER, then set List to L1 , Freq to 1, and C-Level
to 0.98. Select Calculate and press ENTER to obtain the confidence interval.

(197.9 g, 201.68 g).

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Question 4

César likes to study trees and he knows that the lengths of leaves of a particular
tree are normally distributed with mean µ cm and standard deviation σ mm. He
does not know either of these parameters. He takes a sample of 20 leaves from
the tree and measures them and calculates the mean length to be 3.3 cm and the
sample standard deviation to be 8 mm. Using this information calculate a 90%
confidence for µ .

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Solution to question 4 t(19)

To calculate 90% confidence interval for this 90%

data we have to use the t-distribution, as the
population variance is unknown. 5%
5%

The number of degrees of freedom is 20 − 1 = 19

and the confidence interval is given by
-1.729 0 1.729
sn 0.8
x ±t = 3.3 ± 1.729 (2.98 cm, 3.62 cm).
n −1 20 − 1
From t-tables
Before we can use the graphics calculator we have to calculate the unbiased
estimate for the population standard deviation,

n 20
sn −1 = sn = 0.8 = 0.820… cm
n −1 19

This can be done in the RUN menu

and the answer should be put into the
memory ALPHA A

Now STAT menu, select TESTS followed by 8: TInterval.. Set Inpt to Stats,
ENTER, then set x to 3.3 , Sx to ALPHA A, n to 20 and C-Level to 0.9. Select
Calculate and press ENTER to obtain the confidence interval.

(2.98 cm, 3.62 cm).

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Question 5

Random samples are taken from two different populations. A sample of 12 is

taken from the first population, which has a mean 34 and population variance 4.
From the second population that has mean 42 and population variance 9 a
sample size of 24 is taken. Calculate a 95% confidence interval for the difference
between means.

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Solution to question 5

First writing down the data we have

xn = 34 xm = 42
σn = 4 = 2 σm = 9 = 3
n = 12 m = 24

For a 95% confidence interval we use the

normal distribution where

σ n2 σ m2 22 3 2
xn − xm ± z + = 34 − 42 ± 1.96 +
n m 12 24

(-9.65, -6.35). From tables or calculator

-1.96 0 1.96

Or using the graphics calculator in the STAT menu, select TESTS followed by
9: 2-SampZInt. Set Inpt to Stats, ENTER. Now set, σ 1 to 2, σ 2 to 3
x 1 to 34, n1 to 12, x 2 to 42 , n2 to 24 and C-Level to 0.95. Select Calculate and
press ENTER to obtain the confidence interval.

(-9.65, -6.35).

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Question 6

A Physical Education teacher wishes to find a confidence interval for the

difference in times to swim a length of a pool between the students in the 5A and
5B. He takes random samples of 16 students from each class and obtains the
following times measured in seconds

Class Sample Mean Unbiased estimate of population variance

5A 45.6 3.262
5B 37.4 2.712

Find a 99% confidence interval for the difference between population means,
stating any assumptions you have made. Does he have evidence at the 1% level
that students of class 5B are faster than 5A?

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Solution to question 6

Sample Unbiased estimate of

Class Sample size
Mean population variance
5A 45.6 3.262 16
5B 37.4 2.712 16

We will assume the both populations are normal with a common variance.
So pooling the variance we have:

( n − 1) sn2−1 + ( m − 1) sm2 −1 = 15 ( 3.26 ) + 15 ( 2.71)

2 2

s 2
n + m −2 = = 8.98585
n+m−2 16 + 16 − 2
t (30)
We have to use the t-distribution with
16 + 16 − 2 = 30 degrees of freedom. A 99%
confidence interval is given by

1 1
x n − x m ± t sn + m − 2 + From t-tables
n m
-2.75 0 2.75
1 1
= 45.6 − 37.4 ± 2.750 8.98… + (5.29 s, 11.1 s).
16 16
Or using the graphics calculator in the STAT menu, select TESTS followed by
0: 2-SampTInt. Set Inpt to Stats, ENTER. Now set x 1 to 45.6, Sx1 to 3.26, n1 to
16, x 2 to 37.4, Sx2 to 2.71, n2 to 16 and C-Level to 0.99, Pooled to Yes. Select
Calculate and press ENTER to obtain the confidence interval.

(5.29 s, 11.1 s). As 0 is not in the confidence interval we can conclude at the 1%
level that there is significant evidence that 5B are faster than 5A at swimming.

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Question 7

A random sample of five Peruvian policemen had the following weights in kg

61, 72, 85, 54, 66

Six Peruvian policewomen had the following weights in kg.

54, 66, 48, 57, 70, 65

Assuming that both samples were drawn from a normal population with a
common variance find

a. an unbiased estimate of the common variance.

b. a symmetric 90% confidence interval for the difference in the population

mean of weights.

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Solution to question 7

With the graphics calculator in the STAT menu, 1:Edit, enter the data for
policemen into L1 and policewomen into L2. Select CALC and press 1:1Var-
Select ENTER, L1, ENTER and record the results for policemen. Re-enter STAT
menu, select CALC and press 1:1Var-Select ENTER, L1, ENTER and record the
results for policemen.

Policemen

xn =
∑ xn = 338 = 67.6kg s = xn2 − x 2 = 23402 − 67.62 = 10.518555kg
n n
n 5 n 5
Policewomen

xm =
∑ xm 360
= = 60kg sm =
xm2
− xm2 =
21950
− 602 = 7.63762615kg
m 6 m 6
nsn2 + msm2 5 (10.51…) + 6 ( 7.63…)
2 2

a. s 2
n +m −2 = = = 100.3555551 = 100 kg
n+m−2 5+6−2

b. For a 90% confidence interval we must t(9)

use the t-distribution with 5 + 6 − 2 = 9 90%

degrees of freedom.
5%
1 1 5%
x n − x m ± t sn + m − 2 +
n m
1 1
= 67.6 − 60 ± 1.833 100.3… + -1.833 0 1.833
5 6
(-3.52 kg, 18.72 kg).
From t-tables

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 Or using the graphics calculator in the STAT menu, select TESTS followed
by 0: 2-SampTInt. Set Inpt to Data, List1 to L1, List2 to L2, Freq1 to 1, Freq
2 to 1, C-Level to 0.90 and Pooled to Yes. Select Calculate and press
ENTER to obtain the confidence interval.

(-3.52 kg, 18.72 kg). Notice if we scroll down we can get the
unbiased estimate of the pooled standard deviation, sn + m −2 = 10.017 .

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Question 8

The heights of two mathematics classes were recorded below

Mathematical Methods SL

Height cm 145-150 150-155 155-160 160-165 165-170

Number of students 1 2 4 3 1

Mathematics HL

Height cm 145-150 150-155 155-160 160-165

Number of students 4 5 5 2
a. Calculate the mean and sample standard deviation for both classes

It is thought that there is a significant difference in the heights of the two

classes.

b. Calculate a 95% confidence interval for these data, stating any

assumptions that you make. What do you conclude?

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Solution to question 8

a. To an estimate of the mean and standard deviation we must take the mid-
point of each class value.

Mathematical Methods SL Mathematics HL

Height (cm) Frequency
147.5 1 Height (cm) Frequency
152.5 2 147.5 4
157.5 4 152.5 5
162.5 3 157.5 5
167.5 1 162.5 2

With the graphics calculator in the STAT menu, 1:Edit, enter the data for
Maths Methods SL into L1 and its corresponding frequencies into L2 and
Mathematics HL into L3 and its corresponding frequencies into L4. Re-enter
the STAT menu, select CALC, 1: 1-Var Stats ENTER followed by L1, L2,
ENTER and record the results for Maths Methods SL. Re-enter the STAT
menu, select CALC, 1: 1-Var Stats ENTER followed by L3, L4, ENTER and
record the results for the Mathematics HL.

Mathematical Methods SL

xn =
∑ xn = 1737.5 = 157.954545 = 158cm
n 11
xn2 274768.75
sn = − xn2 = − 157.9545452 = 5.41653422 = 5.42
n 11
Mathematics HL

xm =
∑ xm = 2465 = 154.0625 = 154cm
m 16
xm2 380150
sm = − xm2 = − 154.06252 = 4.91132301= 4.91cm
m 16

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 We will assume that both samples are drawn form a normal population with
a common variance. Calculating a common variance we have

ns 2 + msm2 11( 5.416…) + 16 ( 4.911…)

2 2

s 2
n +m −2 = n = = 28.34659081cm
n+m−2 11 + 16 − 2

t(25)
b. For a 95% confidence interval we must
use the t-distribution with 11 + 16 − 2 = 25
degrees of freedom.

1 1
x n − x m ± t sn + m − 2 + From t-tables
n m
1 1
= 157.9… − 154.0… ± 2.060 28.34… + -2.060 0 2.060
11 16
(-0.40 cm, 8.19 cm).

Or using the graphics calculator in the STAT menu, select TESTS followed
by 0: 2-SampTInt. Set Inpt to Data, List1 to L1, List2 to L3, Freq1 to L2,
Freq 2 to L4, C-Level to 0.95 and Pooled to Yes. Select Calculate and press
ENTER to obtain the confidence interval.

(-0.40 cm, 8.19 cm). Notice if we scroll down we can get the
unbiased estimate of the pooled standard deviation, sn + m −2 = 5.3241.

As 0 is within the confidence interval we can conclude that there is no

difference in the heights of the two classes.

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Question 9

Explain what is meant by an 80% confidence interval.

A group of students were given an algebra test, which consisted of 50 questions.

Afterwards they were given a two-week course of algebra at the end of which
they were given another test of 50 questions. The results of a sample of 7
students were given below.

Student A B C D E F G
Pre-test 24 36 31 37 43 19 7
Post-test 26 34 35 38 46 23 5

a. Calculate the sample mean and an unbiased estimate for the population
variance for the difference of means

b. Find 80% confidence interval for the difference of means stating any
assumptions you have made.

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Solution to question 9

An 80% confidence interval means that there is a probability of 0.8 that the
population mean will be included in the interval.

As the two sets of data are not independent (same students for both tests) we will
find a confidence interval by pairing the data.
Using the graphics calculator in the STAT menu, 1: Edit, put Pre-test into L1 and
Post-test into L2. Then press QUIT followed by L2 – L1 Sto L3. Re-enter the
STAT menu 1: Edit and record the results.

Pre-test Post-test Difference

24 26 2
36 34 -2
31 35 4
37 38 1
43 46 3
19 23 4
7 5 -2

Now finding the mean and unbiased estimate of the standard deviation for the
difference Enter STAT Menu, select CALC, 1; 1-Var Stats ENTER, L3 ENTER.

xd =
∑x d
=
10
= 1.42857142 = 1.43
n 7

sn −1 =
∑x 2
d 54
− xd2 =
− 1.42…2
n −1 7 −1
sn −1 = 2.57275098 = 6.62
2 2

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Using the t(n-1) distribution(unknown population t(6)
variance) with 6 degrees of freedom then a 80%
80%
confidence interval is given by
s 2.57…
x ± t n −1 = 1.42… ± 1.440 10%
n 7 10%
(0.0286, 2.83). From t-tables

-1.440 0 1.440

Or using the graphics calculator in the STAT menu, select TESTS followed by
8: TInterval. Set Inpt to Data, ENTER, then set List to L3 , Freq to 1, and C-Level
to 0.8. Select Calculate and press ENTER to obtain the confidence interval.

(0.0286, 2.83).

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