ISBN 978-1-6654-3986-2
Non-Linear Orbital Path Tracking Of Ornithopters
2021 International Conference on System, Computation, Automation and Networking (ICSCAN) | 978-1-6654-3986-2/21/$31.00 ©2021 IEEE | DOI: 10.1109/ICSCAN53069.2021.9526513
Akhil Rana
dept. of electronics engineering
Defence Institute of Advanced Technology
Pune-411025,India
akhil19121997@gmail.com
Abstract—Ornithopters are flying aerial vehicles capable of
flying at a low altitude and low speed.These aerial vehicles offers
a very low Radar cross section and often escape detection by
tracking systems.These aerial vehicles trace a rabbit path which
consists of frequent and abrupt changes. Non linear tracking
of ornithopters is important from army point of view.This
algorithm can be used to track the ornithopters being used by the
adversaries and note down or evaluate the pattern.The processing
of this information will yield a meaningful data.These tracking
system once developed in the hardware can be incorporated in
the fire control system and can be used to bring down the enemy
surveillance aerial vehicles flying at a low altitude and a low
speed.The radar cross section offered by these ornithopters is
very low of the order of few square meters.Hence non linear
tracking is modeled using an Extended Kalman filter in this
work in which a vehicle is made to follow a circular trajectory
and plotted for true, observed and estimated positions.
Index Terms—Ornithopters , Kalman Filter , Conflict detection
and resolution , Radar Cross Section , Continuous Wave Radar
I. I NTRODUCTION
UAV’s and ornithopter’s have found an extensive usability
in today’s scenario.There are combat UAV’s that carry aircraft
ordinances such as missiles and bombs used for deep strikes
[1], [2]. These UAV’s are usually under real-time human
control, with varying levels of controls.The history of UAV’s
dates back to Yom Kippur War of 1973 in which Israel lured
Saudi Arabia to fire their entire arsenal of anti-aircraft missiles
on their unmanned aircrafts [3].
A. Conventional Radar systems and their usability
The radar systems available in the environment are basically
developed in a manner to detect the supersonic targets.These
aerial targets usually fly at a high altitude with a high speed
which makes it possible to separate the target echo and
ground/sea noise in the area(domain) of frequency [4], [5].
B. Maintaining the Radar operation for the detection of low
Radar Cross Section (RCS) objects
Over the years there have evolved aerial vehicles such as
paragliders, ornithopters etc. These airborne vehicles generally
fly at a low altitude of few thousand meters with a speed of the
order of 225 kilometer per hour and offers a RCS as small as
2m2 [6], [7].Over the years UAV has assumed a lot of impor-
tance and are extensively being used by defence forces over
the world for svl operations. Hence it has become important to
track their trajectories and subsequently neutralize them [8],
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A A Bazil Raj
dept. of electronics engineering
Defence Institute of Advanced Technology
Pune-411025,India
brazilraj.a@gmail.com
[9]. Tracking of UAV’s is a challenge since they offer very low
RCS and their trajectories consists of abrupt changes.They can
move forward ,backward hover at a point,make a coordinated
turn or take any abrupt direction of motion at will.Considering
these challenges there is a need to develop a good tracking
algorithm to track these low RCS targets [10].
C. Significance of non linear tracking
Non linear tracking of ornithopters is important from army
point of view.This algorithm can be used to track the or-
nithopters being used by the adversaries and note down or
evaluate the pattern [11], [12].The processing of this infor-
mation will yield a meaningful data.These tracking system
once developed in the hardware can be incorporated in the
fire control system and can be used to bring down the enemy
surveillance aerial vehicles flying at a low altitude and a low
speed [13].The RCS offered by these ornithopters is very low
of the order of few square meters.
D. Literature Survey
• In 2018 Amin razmi etal carried out his research work
indicating detection of low RCS target in multi static con-
figuration. The detection of geometrically-based stealth
targets in a reliable and befitting manner by employing
a conventional single sensor radar system may be quite
difficult [15], [16]. This is because the small radar cross-
section (RCS) results in a low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR)
at certain angles. In the main work, the multi-target
tracking configuration of secret targets is investigated in a
multi-static radar with passive receivers. The direction of
arrival (DOA) of the targets is estimated by the receivers
without knowing the number of targets, and their position
is obtained based on the direction of the transmission
radius [17], [18]. The Bomber B2 model was used as a
stealth target
• The RCS of the target is simulated for all variations of
angles of incidence and reflected angles of an oblique
plane wave. The detection probability is formulated using
a Toeplitz-based method for various signal to noise ratio
corresponding to different RCS patterns and applied to
an iterated corrected probability hypothesis density (IC-
PHD) filter [19]. Despite the fact that when generating
our input data we take into account the resolution of the
sender and receiver, the proposed algorithm can track the
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targets individually if they are very close or even intersect
[20], [21].In this paper it is proposed multi static radar
configuration consisting of a single transmitter with mul-
tiple passive receivers placed at a certain distance which
is aimed at creating a field of view(FOV) diversification
for the purpose of picking up stealth targets.Every passive
receivers has an array of antenna which are capable
of performing direction of arrival estimation [22].These
direction of arrival estimated by the array of antennas are
then properly fused in a triangulation method to find out
the position of target.
• The detection of a target with a low RCS moving at a very
fast speed is presented using a high-resolution millimeter
wave radar [23].This type of detection makes it possible
to extract the moving properties of the object, such as
speed and position while moving, as well as to extract its
physical properties.
• In 2013 Chunbo luo presented his work. Ornithopters
exhibit a unbeatable role in processing of data with
information. Due to their mobility and the complexity
of behavior in operational requirement it is essential to
continuously feed their current position for avoidance
of collision [24], [25]. This research paper outlines the
procedure to be followed for avoidance of collision by
employing received signal strength(RSS) with the help of
completely efficient communication module.Kalman filter
in extended or modified form is advocated to be used to
resolve these issues amicably and proficiently [26].
• Chin E Luo in 2018 proposed another algorithm for
predicting trajectory of UAVs in conflict detection and
resolution(CDR) mission [27].The orbit prediction algo-
rithm was developed to evaluate the UAVs flight tra-
jectory and predict the threat with manned aircraft in
time(preliminary process for CDR system).The hybrid
coupling model is built on 3 different path prediction
condition based on geographical configuration scenarios
to guide system for proper conflict resolution,provide
more accurate CDR for manned and unmanned aerial
vehicle in joint rescue operation [28].
• Path prediction is first step for CDR system.But it need
correct prediction to avoid conflicts and incorrect resolu-
tions.Hence for most CDR system focus is on final layer
.Front stage predictions is for straight line path as shown
in Fig. 1. the linear projection model is fairly simple but
it may be possible that aircraft flying at all edges possible
with change in direction [29], [30].The worst projection
is dynamic modeling which is sector covers maximum
aircraft maneuvers.Due to the wide range of assessments,
this is the perfect choice when the aircraft is operated
under visual flight rules (VFR) in defined airspace where
a number of turn operations are performed [31].
• The literature surveys leads us to the problem statement
to design an effective algorithm for non linear rabbit
path tracking of Ornithopters/UAV’s which offer very low
RCS.The problem statement is further divided into two
sub parts.
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ISBN 978-1-6654-3986-2
Fig. 1. Schematics of path prediction models.
1) Extracting the trajectory of aerial targets(UAV’s).
2) Prediction of non linear aerial trajectory of RCS
reduced target using Extended Kalman Filter.
E. Background Work
• Most of the traditional electronic system are provided
with a large number of sensors for measurement of data
and subsequent processing of the same [33], [34].There
may be times when want to find out a particular parameter
value but it may be completely impractical to do so.For
example if we want to measure temperature of a turbine
engine we cannot directly put a sensor and measure it
because that would result in the burning of the sensor
[35].In such cases the sensor is required to be placed at
some other point and Kalman filter will be used to find
temperature of the turbine
• In such an event , the Kalman filter can be used.
Obviously, there can be some outside factors such as
gunfire noise, atmospheric disturbance and errors in
external temperature measurements that can affect the
measurements [36], [37]. But with all this in mind,the
Kalman filter is capable of providing a better value of the
not known inside temperature [38]. Parameter estimates
that cannot be measured directly and which are likely
to be corrupted by noise can be perfectly predicted by
optimization techniques like kalman filtering [39].
• The main condition for utilization of Kalman filter is that
the event should be linear in nature that is the procedure
of kalman filter algorithm is applied to linear systems
and its predictions and estimates fails for the non linear
systems.For non linear systems extended kalman filter
or unscented kalman filter is being used.Kalman filter
algorithm was developed in 1960 by Rudolf Kalman
[40].His techniques are now widely being used in science
and research work.These methods also provide for a
strong tool for non linear tracking
• The Bayes filter is the basic of prediction of belief and
forms the basis of any type of filtering including the
kalman filtering approach.It consists of the measurement
with control input and subsequent update of the state
[41].It also follows the multi variate normal distribution
or the Gaussian curve.The algorithm forms a loop and
continuously performs the operations or steps in a itera-
tive process to give the best estimate after sidelining the
noises or external disturbances
2
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 ISBN 978-1-6654-3986-2

II. K ALMAN F ILTER as given below:

Prediction equation:
A. Linear Kalman Filter
The algorithm consists of five equations. Initially available ŝ[n|n − 1] = a(ŝ[n − 1|n − 1])
data are sensor measurement data. These readings are noisy, MSE matrix(p*p):
inaccurate and incorrect. From this, fair values need to be
estimated. The difference between the initial values and the M [n|n − 1] = A[n − 1]M [n − 1|n − 1]AT [n − 1] + BQB T
measured values is the measurement error. Since the measure- Kalman Gain(p*M):
ment errors [1], [42] are arbitrary, we can describe them by
variance. Deviations from measurement errors can be detected K[n] = M [n|n − 1]H T [n](C[n] + H[n]M [n|n − 1]H T [n])−1
during the calibration procedure.
Correction equation:
These identified differences constitute the measurement
uncertainty determined by modeling the Kalman filter of our ŝ[n/n] = ŝ[n/n = 1] + k[n](x[n] − h(ŝ[n/n − 1]))
problem. The estimation error is defined as the difference
Minimum MSE matrix(p*p):
between the estimate and the initial value [4], [43]. As more
measurements are made, the difference between the initial M [n|n] = (I − k[n]H[n])M [n|n − 1]
value and the estimate will eventually narrow, resulting in
hence we got following results Fig. 2 after intoduction of
smaller and smaller errors in the estimation of each mea-
Kalaman algorithm
surement made. The exact value of the estimation error is
not known, but it can be found and this is an estimate error.
There are two main stages in Kalman filtering: measurement
and prediction.
The next state probability is given by the following equa-
tion.A and B are the matrices which matches the dimension-
ality of x and the control input u(t).

At xt− 1 + Bt ut + ϵt (1)

after incorporating the measurement (1) into multivariate nor-

mal distribution we get the following result.
p(zt |xt )=

det(2∗π∗Qt )−1/2 exp((−1/2)(zt −Ct xt )T ∗(Q)−1 (zt −Ct xt ))

B. Non-Linear Kalman Filters

In general, the trajectories of the different targets will not
be linear; therefore, we use an extended version of the squid
filter to formulate an estimation algorithm to estimate the
trajectories of non-linear targets [23], [43]. Various non-linear
tracking algorithms, such as Advanced Kalman Filtering and
Odorless kalman Filtering, can be used for trajectories that are
both first and second order non-linear.
Fig. 2. illustration of Kalman Filters:(a)initial belief (b)a measurement in bold
associated with uncertainty (c)belief after integrating the belief using Kalman
filter algorithm (d)belief after motion to right(which introduces uncertainty)
(e)a new measurement with associated uncertainty (f)the resulting belief
Also following is figure i.e. Fig. 3 depicting how Kalman filter
works:

C. Extended Kalman Filter

In this we will have the following equation:

S(n) = a(S[n − 1]) + Bu[n]

X[n] = h(S[n]) + w[n]

a and h are non linear functions which we need to linearise.

using first order taylor series gives linearised state equation
as:

s[n] = A[n−1]s[n−1]+Bu[n]+(a(ŝ[n−1|−1]))−A[n−1]ŝ[n−1|n−1]

x[n] = H[n]s[n] + w[n] + (h(ŝ[n|n − 1]) − H([n]ŝ[n|n − 1]) Fig. 3. Flow diagram of Kalman Filter
hence the modified equation for non linear Kalman Filter are

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III. D ESIGN OF O RNITHOPTER

• An autonomous vehicle is made to travel around a fixed

point in circular trajectory.This autonomous vehicle is
observed from a point at a certain distance.The distance
of the vehicle from observation point is called Range and
the heading angle of the vehicle is called bearing.Vehicle
acceleration is corrupted by Gaussian noise and the
observation model is non linear with multiplicative non
Gaussian noise [1], [42].The characteristics are defined
by the equation given below:
• The state of the autonomous vehicle with discrete time Fig. 5. EKF Block design
dynamics is as given below.

2 B. functioning
Pn+1 = Pn + Vn Ts + (an + wn )(Ts /2)

S : Vn+1 = V (n) + (an + wn )(Ts /2)2
(2) In Fig. 4 Acceleration profile generator gets -(px , py , vx
 and vy ),(3) as input and hence generates ax ,(4) and ay ,(5) as
an = (C − Pn )(||Vn ||2 /||C − Pn ||2 )

output ,which gets added with wx and wy ,(3) to give a as
output which is input to dynamics(non linear),to give P and V
• The simulink implementation of the (2) given below are
as output ,which is feed back to acceleration profile generator
represented in the dynamic non linear system and the
as well and P is also sent to observation model (which is
acceleration profile generator.This is also called state
non linear and noisy) ,whose output becomes input to EKF
space equation.
shown in Fig. 5 where range noisy and bearing noisy inputs
        are their,it gives xhat as output further sent to signal logging
px px vx ax + wx
 py  py   vy   ay + wy  device to get Rhat and Azhat,which is true range and azimuth
 
––
    2
  respectively for trajectory prediction.
  = –– +T s ––––––– +Ts /2 
   
–––––––

 vx   vx  ax + wx   0  IV. R ESULTS
vy n+1 vy n ay + wy n 0 n 1) The azimuth is plotted for display of variation in true
(3) ,observed and estimated values in Fig. 6.

,where

ax = (vx 2 + vy 2 /(cx − px )2 + (cy − py )2 )(cx − px ) (4)

ay = (vx 2 + vy 2 /(cx − px )2 + (cy − py )2 )(cy − py ) (5)

A. MATLAB design

Fig. 6. The azimuth is plotted for display of variation in true ,observed and
estimated values

2) The range is plotted for display of variation in true

,observed and estimated values in Fig. 7.

3) The trajectories are plotted for display of variation in

true ,observed and estimated values in Fig. 8

A. Discussion
• The EKF for this problem relies on linearisation in
order to propagate the mean and covariance of the state.
Fig. 4. Main functional block design Propagating the mean and covariance of the state based on
Jacobian linearisation can be a crude approximation. This

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Fig. 7. The range is plotted for display of variation in true ,observed and
estimated values
Fig. 8. The trajactories is plotted for display of variation in true ,observed
and estimated values
is because the Jacobian of the original nonlinear dynamics
discards the higher order terms of the nonlinear dynamics.
In addition to this approximation, Kalman Filter theory
is abound by Gaussian statistical assumptions. In other
words, Kalman Filters of almost all varieties assume
that the noise distributions are Gaussian therefore they
propagate the first and second moments through some
version of the dynamics (in this case of the EKF, its the
Jacobian of the nonlinear dynamics). This can lead to
unpleasant estimation errors if the underlying true sta-
tistical distribution has dominant higher order moments
(i.e. a great deal of the distribution is characterized by
its Skewness or Kurtosis). Since reality is not always
Gaussian,this problem is real and must be acknowledged.
• For highly nonlinear systems with non-Gaussian noise,
more refined techniques can be used to improve the
estimator performance. For instance, one may consider
a Particle Filter implementation or, if one is familiar
with the Unscented Transformation, the UKF may be an
option. Note that with the UKF, one is still constrained
by the Gaussian assumptions on the noise distributions,
but the actual nonlinear dynamics are used to propagate
key points through the system dynamics. Despite its
shortcomings for this nonlinear/non-Gaussian problem,
we have been able to obtain simulation results to discuss.
When the initial conditions of the states are known
perfectly by the EKF then the covariance propagation
matrix initial conditions become zeros.
• In this case, depending on the noise covariance intensities,
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ISBN 978-1-6654-3986-2
the EKF may track well in this problem for a short period
of time. This is shown in the zoomed plots of the Range
and the Azimuth. In those plots, the estimate is shown as
a black dotted line and actual true trajectory of the state is
shown in blue. The red trace is the noisy observations. On
the other hand, if the initial conditions of the underlying
state dynamics are not known well then the EKF will not
have desirable performance.
V. C ONCLUSION
It is shown that traditional Kalman Filter fails in esti-
mating non-linear trajectories of the targets. The non-linear
Kalman filter or extended Kalman filter has been successfully
researched and implemented and shows the results of target
modeling in various scenarios. The accuracy of the extended
Kalman filter is promising, but it has a slight disadvantage due
to increased noise that can lead to inaccuracies in the trajectory
estimation. To further improve accuracy, many sophisticated
scoring methods exist, such as the Unscented Kalman filter,
which uses odorless transform to construct scores around a
target mean. Particulate filters can be installed in more difficult
paths.
We have range of UAV’s capable of flying at low altitude
and low speed to combat UAV’s which can even be used to
destroy logistic dumps and static locations which are strategic
in nature.There have been instances where our adversaries
have used UAV’s to deliver weapons and ammunition to non-
state players.Building a robust algorithm will assist the field
army in successful execution of operations.Once the trajectory
of aerial targets is modeled using Extended kalman filter it may
lead to future scope of developing a hardware system which
can implement the above mentioned algorithm. The tracking
algorithm worked out in this paper can be implemented in
hardware form and incorporated in fire control systems to
bring down the target.The tracking algorithm requires con-
tinuous supply of measurement data which can be provided
in the form of range and bearing from the radar.Since the rcs
possessed by the ornithopters is of the order of few square
meters the radar should have sufficient sensitivity to capture
it.
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[29] Anju, P., AA Bazil Raj, and Chandra Shekhar. ”Pulse Doppler
Processing-A Novel Digital Technique.” In 2020 4th International Con-
ference on Intelligent Computing and Control Systems (ICICCS), pp.
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[30] Mohan, Anurag, and AA Bazil Raj. ”Array Thinning of Beamformers
using Simple Genetic Algorithm.” In 2020 International Conference on
Computational Intelligence for Smart Power System and Sustainable
Energy (CISPSSE), pp. 1-4. IEEE, 2020.
[31] Phanindra, Bhavana Ram, R. N. Pralhad, and AA Bazil Raj. ”Machine
Learning Based Classification of Ducted and Non-Ducted Propeller
Type Quadcopter.” In 2020 6th International Conference on Advanced
Computing and Communication Systems (ICACCS), pp. 1296-1301.
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[32] Kumawat, Harish Chandra, and ArockiaBazil Raj. ”Data acquisition
and signal processing system for CW radar.” In 2019 5th International
Conference On Computing, Communication, Control And Automation
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[33] Thiruvoth, DaliyaVelandi, AA Bazil Raj, B. Pavan Kumar, V. Senthil
Kumar, and Ravi Dutt Gupta. ”Dual-Band Shared-Aperture Reflectarray
Antenna Element at Ku-Band for the TT&C Application of a Geostation-
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[35] Vaishnavi, Ravi, G. Unnikrishnan, and AA Bazil Raj. ”Implementation
of algorithms for Point target detection and tracking in Infrared image
sequences.” In 2019 4th International Conference on Recent Trends on
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[36] Shakya, Priyanka, and AA Bazil Raj. ”Inverse Synthetic Aperture Radar
Imaging Using Fourier Transform Technique.” In 2019 1st International
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[37] Garg, Upasana, AA Bazil Raj, and K. P. Ray. ”Cognitive Radar Assisted
Target Tracking: A Study.” In 2018 3rd International Conference on
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[38] Gupta, Deeksha, AA Bazil Raj, and Abhijit Kulkarni. ”Multi-Bit Digital
Receiver Design For Radar Signature Estimation.” In 2018 3rd IEEE
International Conference on Recent Trends in Electronics, Information
& Communication Technology (RTEICT), pp. 1072-1075. IEEE, 2018.
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[42] Ch, Mary Latha, AA Bazil Raj, and L. Abhikshit. ”Design and Imple-
mentation of a Secure Physical Unclonable Function In FPGA.” In 2020
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[43] Kumar, Rohit, and A. ArockiaBazil Raj. ”Customized Floating Point
Algorithm for the Ranging System.” In 2020 International Conference
on System, Computation, Automation and Networking (ICSCAN), pp.
1-7. IEEE, 2020.
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