Cereals market situation

Committee for the Common Organisation of Agricultural

Markets
25 November 2022
1
 2021/2022 marketing year

2
 EU27 2021/2022 Area
(million ha)
2020/21 2021/22
Estimate Oct. Forecast Nov. Forecast vs. 2020/21 (%)
Soft wheat 20.7 21.8 21.8 5.6
Durum wheat 2.1 2.2 2.2 4.8
Barley 11.0 10.3 10.3 -6.8
Maize 9.2 9.2 9.2 0.3
Rye 2.1 1.9 1.9 -7.5
Oats 2.6 2.6 2.6 -0.6
Total 51.8 52.0 52.1 0.5
Source: DG AGRI - E4

3
 EU27 2021/2022 Production
(million tonnes)
2020/21 2021/22
Estimate Oct. Forecast Nov. Forecast vs. 2020/21 (%)
Soft wheat 118.1 129.1 129.0 9.3
Durum wheat 7.3 7.8 8.0 8.7
Barley 53.9 51.4 51.4 -4.6
Maize 67.1 72.9 73.2 9.0
Rye 8.7 7.8 7.8 -11.1
Oats 8.4 7.4 7.4 -12.1
Total 280.3 292.2 292.6 4.4
Source: DG AGRI - E4

4
 EU 2021/2022 Usable Production: comparison
with other forecasters
(million tonnes)
EC Stratégie COPA
COCERAL
DG AGRI Grains COGECA
25-November 17-November 16-September 09-September
Soft Wheat 129.0 129.8 129.4 128.9
Durum Wheat 8.0 7.7 7.8 8.0
Barley 51.4 51.8 52.1 51.3
Maize 73.2 70.2 70.2 69.5
Rye 7.8 8.0 8.0 8.2
Total Cereals 292.6 290.4 287.8 288.7

5
 EU 2021/2022 Cereals Balance Sheet
(thousand metric tonnes)

LAST UPDATED: 25/11/2022

2021/22 fc.

Common wheat Barley Durum wheat Maize Rye Sorghum Oats Triticale Others TOTAL CEREALS

Beginning stocks 8 663 4 559 2 169 19 503 872 1 256 1 262 2 135 380 40 801
Usable production 129 008 51 444 7 980 73 166 7 773 777 7 387 11 442 3 628 292 606
Area (thousand ha) 21 816 10 269 2 213 9 247 1 916 152 2 554 2 655 1 258 52 080
Yield (tonnes/ha) 6 5 4 8 4 5 3 4 3 6
Imports (from third countries) 2 800 1 063 1 364 16 312 259 159 155 3 163 22 279
Total supply 140 471 57 067 11 514 108 982 8 905 2 193 8 804 13 581 4 172 355 687
Total domestic use 95 672 42 501 9 118 82 041 7 406 1 088 7 295 11 565 3 784 260 472
Human consumption 41 098 362 8 076 4 700 2 959 155 1 100 52 23 58 525
Seed 4 600 2 131 400 402 300 29 350 500 270 8 981
Industrial uses 9 400 6 700 95 11 900 1 500 101 445 170 30 310
of which bioethanol/biofuel 3 400 437 6 800 900 344 14 11 895
Animal feed 39 800 33 000 500 64 600 2 600 900 5 700 10 500 3 300 160 900
Losses 774 309 48 439 47 5 44 69 22 1 756
Exports (to third countries) 29 250 10 493 1 147 6 562 175 15 213 3 20 47 879
Total use 124 922 52 995 10 265 88 603 7 580 1 104 7 508 11 569 3 805 308 351
Ending stocks** 15 549 4 072 1 249 20 378 1 324 1 089 1 295 2 012 367 47 336
Change in stocks** 6 886 -487 -920 875 452 -167 34 -123 -14 6 535
* Marketing year: from July to June
** At the end of the marketing year

6
 EU Cereals Balance Sheet 2021/2022 (Summary)

• Production forecast 4.8% above five-year trimmed average at 292.6 million

tonnes (+4.4% y/y)
o +0.45 million tonnes compared to October estimates (especially
+0.2 million tonnes of durum wheat and +0.3 million tonnes of maize)

• Other items of the balance sheet unchanged

7
 2022/2023 marketing year

8
 EU27 2022/2023 Area
(million ha)
2021/22 2022/23
Oct. Projection Nov. Projection vs. 2021/22 (%)
Soft wheat 21.8 21.9 21.9 0.5
Durum wheat 2.2 2.2 2.2 -1.6
Barley 10.3 10.4 10.4 0.9
Maize 9.2 9.1 9.1 -1.9
Rye 1.9 1.8 1.8 -7.8
Oats 2.6 2.4 2.4 -6.6
Total 52.1 51.4 51.4 -1.3
Source: DG AGRI - E4

9
 EU27 2022/2023 Production
(million tonnes)
2021/22 2022/23
Oct. Projection Nov. Projection vs. 2021/22 (%) vs. 5-year av. (%)
Soft wheat 129.0 127.2 127.0 -1.6 1.8
Durum wheat 8.0 7.2 7.1 -10.5 -10.9
Barley 51.4 51.6 51.6 0.3 -1.1
Maize 73.2 54.9 53.3 -27.2 -22.5
Rye 7.8 7.4 7.4 -4.5 -3.9
Oats 7.4 7.5 7.5 1.4 4.5
Total 292.6 270.2 268.4 -8.3 -5.9
Source: DG AGRI - E4

10
 Total cereals area 2022/2023
October projections November projections

11
 Total cereals production 2022/2023
October projections November projections

12
 Soft wheat 2022

13
 Durum wheat 2022

14
 Barley 2022

15
 Maize 2022

16
 EU 2022/2023 Usable Production: comparison
with other forecasters

(million tonnes)
EC Stratégie COPA
COCERAL
DG AGRI Grains COGECA
25-November 17-November 16-September 09-September
Soft Wheat 127.0 125.6 125.6 125.7
Durum Wheat 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.4
Barley 51.6 51.4 52.4 51.1
Maize 53.3 50.8 51.9 55.0
Rye 7.4 7.5 7.8 8.0
Total Cereals 268.4 264.5 264.6 269.1

17
 2022/2023 – Production evolution
month/month variation year/year variation vs. 5-year average
France -0.7% -10.5% -8.6%
Germany 0.0% 2.7% 0.3%
Poland 0.0% 4.0% 12.9%
Romania -6.6% -31.2% -32.7%
Spain 1.4% -22.1% -16.0%
Italy -1.6% -10.1% -9.6%
Denmark 0.0% 16.7% 9.5%
*: 74% of the EU production
Source: DG AGRI - E4

18
 EU 2022/2023 Cereals Balance Sheet
(thousand metric tonnes)

LAST UPDATED: 25/11/2022

2022/23 proj.

Common wheat Barley Durum wheat Maize Rye Sorghum Oats Triticale Others TOTAL CEREALS

Beginning stocks 15 549 4 072 1 249 20 378 1 324 1 089 1 295 2 012 367 47 336
Usable production 126 986 51 620 7 142 53 292 7 426 557 7 489 11 274 2 628 268 413
Area (thousand ha) 21 929 10 363 2 178 9 070 1 767 138 2 385 2 579 972 51 380
Yield (tonnes/ha) 6 5 3 6 4 4 3 4 3 5
Imports (from third countries) 4 000 1 700 2 300 23 000 137 220 130 2 164 31 652
Total supply 146 535 57 391 10 691 96 671 8 887 1 866 8 914 13 288 3 158 347 402
Total domestic use 97 078 42 004 9 156 77 347 7 471 1 106 7 416 11 565 2 845 255 987
Human consumption 41 416 364 8 118 4 725 2 975 156 1 106 52 23 58 935
Seed 4 600 2 131 400 402 300 29 350 500 270 8 981
Industrial uses 8 800 6 700 95 11 400 1 500 101 445 170 29 210
of which bioethanol/biofuel 2 800 437 6 300 900 344 14 10 795
Animal feed 41 500 32 500 500 60 500 2 652 918 5 814 10 500 2 366 157 250
Losses 762 310 43 320 45 3 45 68 16 1 610
Exports (to third countries) 34 000 9 956 900 3 000 189 16 159 5 20 48 245
Total use 131 078 51 961 10 056 80 347 7 660 1 122 7 575 11 569 2 864 304 231
Ending stocks** 15 457 5 431 635 16 324 1 227 744 1 340 1 719 294 43 170
Change in stocks** -91 1 359 -614 -4 055 -97 -345 44 -294 -73 -4 166
* Marketing year: from July to June
** At the end of the marketing year

19
 Projected EU availabilities and uses
Million tonnes

20
 EU Cereals Balance Sheet 2022/2023 (Summary)
• Total EU cereals production projected 5.9% below the five-year trimmed average
of 268.4 million tonnes
o -1.8 million tonnes compared to October projections including –1.6 million tonnes
of maize (mainly on downward area and/or yield revisions in Romania and to a
lesser extent in France).
• Trade
• Figures adjusted on the evolution of production forecast and the current pace of
trade (including +1 million tonnes of maize imports, +1 million tonnes of soft
wheat imports and -2 million tonnes of soft wheat exports)
• Use of cereals for animal feed
• Adjustment of the soft wheat and barley use in animal feed due to expected shift
of demand from barley to soft wheat.
• Other items of the balance sheet unchanged compared to October

21
 EU cereals market figures

22
 EU market prices for milling wheat – (EUR per tonne)
480 480

430 430
380
380
329
330
330 324
280 322
320
280
230
230
180

130 180

130

Poland
Germany France Romania national average
(Hamburg) (Rouen) (Constanta) (Zachodni until mid-July
2021)
Source: Member States notification - Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2017/1185 Art.11, Annex I Point 1

France • EUR 322 per tonne; -4.9% month-on-month; +9.3% year-on-year

(DELPORT Rouen)
23
 EU market prices for feed wheat – (EUR per tonne)
470 450

420 400
370
350 332
320 328
300 315
270
250
220

170 200

120 150

Poland
Germany Netherlands
national average
(Hamburg) (Rotterdam) (Zachodni until mid-July 2021)

Source: Member States notification - Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2017/1185 Art.11, Annex I Point 1

Germany • EUR 315 per tonne; -6.3% month-on-month; +8.6% year-on-year

(DEPSILO Hamburg)
24
 EU market prices for feed barley – (EUR per tonne)
440 470

390 420

340 370 353

312
290 320
291
288
240 270
288
190 220

140 170

90 120

Germany France Romania Netherlands Spain

(Hamburg) (Rouen) (Muntenia) (Rotterdam) (Valladolid)

Source: Member States notification - Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2017/1185 Art.11, Annex I Point 1

Germany • EUR 291 per tonne; -4.9% month-on-month; +9.4% year-on-

(DEPSILO Hamburg) year
25
 EU market prices for maize – (EUR per tonne)
400
390
350 338
340 336
300 326
290 321
250

200 240

150 190

100 140

Hungary France Romania Netherlands

(Great Plain) (Bordeaux)
(Rhin) (Constanta) (Rotterdam)
Source: Member States notification - Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2017/1185 Art.11, Annex I Point 1

Romania • EUR 326 per tonne; -6.3% month-on-month; +41.9% year-on-year

(FOB Constanta)

26
 EU market prices for durum wheat – (EUR per tonne)
600 600

550 550
500
500 500

450 450 483

400 400

350 350

300 300

250 250

200 200

150 150

Italy Spain Greece France

(Bologna) (Sevilla) (Kilkis) (La Pallice)

Source: Member States notification - Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2017/1185 Art.11, Annex I Point 1

Italy • EUR 483 per tonne; -2.0% month-on-month; -10.2% year-

(DELFIRST Bologna) on-year
27
 Last month evolution of EU cereal prices

• Generalised price drop month-on-month (1 to 7%) for soft wheat, barley

and maize (except Ro for barley and HU for maize)
• Prices have been very volatile given the negotiations on the prolongation of
the Black Sea corridor. Prices eased after the announcement of the new
agreement for 120 days.
• Overall prices of soft wheat, barley and maize are still 9 to 42% up
compared to November 2021 and 10 to 30% up compared to the week
before the invasion of Ukraine.
• Durum wheat prices are 7 to 10% below their levels one year ago

28
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