Hydrogen in MENA

The Prospects, Momentum, and Readiness

Dolf Gielen
Director, Innovation and Technology, IRENA
Green Hydrogen in MENA - Setting Direction for a Booming Hydrogen-based Economy, 26 October 2022
IRENA hydrogen work

Analysis Convening & Networking

• Global near-universal membership: 167 member
countries, 17 countries in accession
• Offices in: Abu Dhabi, Bonn & New York
• Annual Ministerial level Energy Transition Forum
• Public-Private Collaborative Frameworks
• Geopolitics
• Green Hydrogen
• Hydropower
• High Shares of Renewables
• Critical Materials for the Energy Transition
• Just and Inclusive Energy Transition
• Offshore Renewables
• Coalition for Action (2014) brings together over
130 leading renewable energy players incl.
companies, industry associations, civil society,
research institutes and IGO
• Events: multiple events every month, large & small
Hydrogen production costs depend on electrolyzer cost
and electricity cost
2050 (1.5C scenario):
• Need to reduce production cost substantially to 1.5
Electrolyzer costs: USD/kg hydrogen
• 800-1200 USD/kW today • Electrolyzer system costs will fall as deployment
• 500-600 USD/kW by 2030 increases
• Chinese Alkaline electrolyzers cost less than USD • Electrolyzer efficiency may improve to 45 kWh/kg
400/kW today • Green hydrogen will become cheaper than blue
hydrogen

Cheap RE power

Very cheap RE power

 Hydrogen trade routes, plans and agreements - IRENA analysis suggests
25% traded internationally H2, 50/50 pipeline and shipping
Status end 2022, many more Technical potential to
potential bilateral trade produce green hydrogen
routes are currently under 88 under USD 1.5/kg by 2050
discussion EJ (EJ). Order of magnitude
larger than global energy
748 212 demand
1314 EJ EJ
EJ ROA
2023
EJ

2715
EJ

1114
EJ

1272
EJ

Hydrogen Council shipping

estimates are substantially
higher

Technical potential 2050

at <1.5 USD/kg 4
Source: IRENA
Much attention for hydrogen

• 680 hydrogen project proposals

• 534 projects aim for commissioning by 2030, USD 240 bln
investment volume
• 1/3 with front end engineering design ongoing
• 1/10 has financial investment decision (USD 22 bln)
• 61 projects greater than 1 GW
• 1/3 EU, 1/5 NAM and 1/5 LAC
• Tripling needed in total investment volume till 2030
• Significant developing country interest to become exporters
September 2022
MENA projects

• IEA database October 2022:

– 47 MENA project entries (GCC + North Africa)
– 17 Egypt; 2 KSA; 3 Morocco; 11 Oman; 14 UAE
– 7 gas with CCS; 1 biomass; 39 electrolysis
– Total 5 Mt H2/yr; 15 projects >0.1 Mt H2/yr
– This underestimates actual announcements notably in Egypt &
Oman
– So far few investment decisions largely MoUs
IRENA analysis of sizeable MENA projects
Based on IEA database and other sources

Analysis of 27 projects:
• 3 blue hydrogen/gas + CCS projects, the remainder green RE power +
electrolysis
• 18 explicitly mention ammonia production
• 2 methanol
• 1 Sustainable aviation fuels
• Total around 12.5 Mt/yr hydrogen once fully developed
• Usually the full supply chain: RE power, electrolyzer, ammonia etc synthesis
• Usually by national oil companies (blue) and national power companies and
foreign partners
In total 60 projects in preparation across the region
Including large and small scale, advanced and conceptual

Source: DII and Roland Berger

Initially 50/50 blue and green, 70 Mt clean hydrogen by 2030
MENA around 20 Mt by 2030, dominated by blue – this is not reflected in the projects under
development that point to green hydrogen

• Around 60 Mt clean hydrogen production in

2030

• Africa, India, Middle East, Latin America, Rest of

Asia, CIS as emerging producers

• CIS and Middle East largely blue

• Africa, Latin America largely green

• Africa 4 Mt by 2030, Latin America 6 Mt by 2030

• Longer term Africa, India, Latin America, Middle

East, Rest of Asia may supply 175 Mt H2/yr green
hydrogen – equivalent to 40% of total supply

Source: Hydrogen Council

Largely shipping of hydrogen derivatives
DRI/steel may pose another new opportunity

• Ammonia, methanol, green iron and steel, green

kerosene

• Ammonia may be reconverted into hydrogen at

receiving ports

• Production of 1 t:

• DRI/HBI (iron) requires 80-100 kg hydrogen

• Ammonia requires 200 kg hydrogen

• Methanol requires 200 kg hydrogen

• Synthetic kerosene requires 400 kg hydrogen

Ammonia as hydrogen trade vector and ammonia fueled ships needed
Ammonia as early market opportunity for green hydrogen use
2022: Solar PV revamp of existing ammonia plant (Fertiberia) • Announced renewable
• Location: Puertollano (Spain) ammonia projects 15 -80 Mt/yr
• Type: Revamp (partial)
• Capacity: 6.1 kt-NH3/y expected to be online by 2030
Market: fertilizers
•
• Expected ammonia production
2023: Fossil-free fertilizers in Sweden capacity up to 2050 for the
1.5°C scenario
2023-2025: 2-stroke & 4-stroke ammonia-fueled maritime
engines ready (MAN, Wärtsilä)
4 ammonia fueled ships in operation end 2022

2024: 20% ammonia co-firing in coal-fired power plant (Japan,

50% ammonia co-firing by 2030)

2025-2026: World-scale renewable ammonia plant (NEOM)

• Location: NEOM (Saudi Arabi)
• Type: Newbuild (under construction)
• Capacity: 1200 kt-NH3/y
• Market: Fuel or hydrogen carrier

2035: Renewable energy hubs (Intercontinental Energy)

• Location: Pilbara (Australia)
• Type: Newbuild
• Capacity: 9900 kt-NH3/y
• Market: Fuel or hydrogen carrier
Breakthrough Agenda Report highlights the importance of
international cooperation for hydrogen

• Governments and companies need to create dependable and durable demand

to help de-risk near-term investments in capital-intensive low-carbon and
renewable hydrogen supply.
• Hydrogen deployment must be underpinned by rigorous emission standards.
• Alongside emission standards, governments and companies must develop
common and robust hydrogen leakage detection and repair protocols and
solutions.
• Governments and companies will need to increase investments in research,
development and demonstration to accelerate the advancement of hydrogen
and its derivatives in new priority applications.
• This will require adequate and sustained financing across the hydrogen value
chain.
September 2022
• Governments and companies will need ensure major ports are ready to handle
hydrogen (and derivatives).

12
 Development implications for MENA

• Green hydrogen will dominate the supply long term

• Low cost renewable power determines hydrogen production cost
• Europe, East Asia will import hydrogen
• Likely 10-20 Mt imports by 2030
• Important ongoing developments in MENA region; MENA region >10 Mt H2 projects in various stages
of development, largely ammonia
• This requires 100-200 GW electrolyzers, 200-400 GW renewable power
• An investment of 300-600 bln USD in hydrogen production supply chains
• Additionally downstream investments (ammonia and iron production, pipelines etc)
• Many other countries want to become hydrogen exporters