Simple Moving Average

Time Demand Units

1 50
2 55
3 57
4 48
5 54
6 53

Using 3 Months Average Calculate the Forecasted Value for 6th Time period?
Weighted Moving Average

1 50 Chart Title
2 55
57
3 57
55
4 48
5 54
6 52.8
50
48

Use weightage of 50% for the nearest time period, followed by 30% for the next nearest time period and add weight of 20% to
Plot Graph to see the difference between moving average and weighted moving average?

1 2 3 4

Column B
 Chart Title
57

54
52.8

48

riod and add weight of 20% to the next nearest demand?

3 4 5 6

Column B
Exponential Smoothing

Formula = Previous Forecast + Alpha(Actual Previous - Forecast Previous)

Time Actual Demand Alpha = 0.25 Alpha = 0.5

1 42 Chart Title
2 40 42.0 42.0
50
3 43 41.5 41.0
45
4 40 41.9 42.0 40
5 41 41.4 41.0 35
6 39 41.3 41.0 30
7 46 40.7 40.0 25
8 44 42.0 43.0 20
9 45 42.5 43.5 15
10 38 43.2 44.3 10
11 40 41.9 41.1 5
12 41.4 40.6 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Actual Demand Alpha = 0.25

Plot the values using Formula for Alpha = 0.5?
Use a graph to identify the differences between the two different forecast?
 Chart Title

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Demand Alpha = 0.25 Alpha = 0.5

Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjusted
Beta Value = 0.4
Time Actual Demand Alpha = 0.25 Trend Forecast Trend Adjusted Forecast
1 42
2 40 2.0 42.0 44.0
3 43 1.6 42.8 44.4
4 40 1.4 44.0 45.4
5 41 0.9 43.8 44.6
6 39 0.5 43.6 44.0
7 46 0.0 42.5 42.5
8 44 0.3 43.5 43.9
9 45 0.3 43.9 44.2
10 38 0.4 44.5 44.9
11 40 -0.3 42.8 42.5
12 ? -0.6 41.8 41.2
Alpha = 0.3
Beta = 0.35
Trend Line intercept 1094.848
slope 122.2028
y=mx+c y=90x + 1412
Time Demand Units
1 1200
2 1450
3 1300
4 1100
5 1950
6 2120
7 2040
8 2200
9 2250
10 2310
11 2270
12 2480

Find the Trend Line equation using Formula's?

Intercept
Slope
y=mx+c

Plot a Graph and show the Trendline?

Seasonality Indices
2019.0 2020.0
Time Demand Units Demand Units
January 1 1500.0 1650.0
Feburary 2 1600.0 1700.0
March 3 1200.0 1400.0
April 4 1800.0 2000.0
May 5 1950.0 2200.0
June 6 2120.0 2350.0
July 7 2500.0 2800.0
August 8 2200.0 2310.0
September 9 1950.0 2150.0
October 10 1800.0 2000.0
November 11 1750.0 1950.0
December 12 1810.0 2000.0
13 1650.0 8.6
14 1700.0 1791.5
15 1400.0 y=8.6x+1791.5
16 2000.0
17 2200.0
18 2350.0
19 2800.0
20 2310.0
21 2150.0
22 2000.0
23 1950.0
24 2000.0
25 1600.0
26 1650.0
27 1300.0
28 1900.0
29 2080.0
30 2230.0
31 2700.0
32 2190.0
33 2080.0
34 2010.0 3500.0
35 1850.0
3000.0
36 1920.0
37 2109.7 2500.0 0.8 1713.0
38 2118.3 2000.0 0.8 1792.4
39 2126.9 0.7 1417.9
1500.0
40 2135.5 1.0 2080.7
41 2144.1 1000.0 1.1 2283.4
42 2152.7 500.0 1.1 2465.5

0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Dema
 1500.0

1000.0

500.0
43 2161.3 1.4 2955.6
0.0
44 2169.9 1 1.1
2 3 4 5 2485.2
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
45 2178.5 1.1 2301.4
Dema
46 2187.1 1.0 2172.1
47 2195.7 0.9 2083.1
48 2204.3 1.0 2159.1
 2021 2022
Linear Forecasting with Seasonality Index
1600.0 ? January 1500 1650 1600
1650.0 Feburary 1600 1700 1650
1300.0 March 1200 1400 1300
1900.0 April 1800 2000 1900
2080.0 May 1950 2200 2080
2230.0 June 2120 2350 2230
2700.0 July 2500 2800 2700
2190.0 August 2200 2310 2190
2080.0 September 1950 2150 2080
2010.0 October 1800 2000 2010
1850.0 November 1750 1950 1850
1920.0 December 1810 2000 1920

Chart Title

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Demand Units Linear (Demand Units) 1713.0

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Demand Units Linear (Demand Units) 1713.0

 avg demand seasonality index
1583.3 0.8
1650.0 0.8
1300.0 0.7
1900.0 1.0
2076.7 1.1
2233.3 1.1
2666.7 1.4
2233.3 1.1
2060.0 1.1
1936.7 1.0
1850.0 0.9
1910.0 1.0
1950.0

33 34 35 36
33 34 35 36
 1.380487
Independent and Dependent Variable
Co-Relation