1. How strong is the support for a causal relation in this study?

You will be asked to support

your answer by providing at least two potential alternative explanations for the results. For
each of these alternative explanations, indicate which threat to internal validity is involved.

The study looks into the variable “self-deception” as a crucial factor that causes deception
in others. The study concludes that self-deceived individuals tend to be overrated by
observers or, as the title suggests, that Self-Deceived Individuals Are Better at Deceiving
Others. In other words, the study suggests a causal relation between “self-deception” (SD
from now on) and deception of others (DO), by virtue of the elimination of cues that reveal
deception.

LAB setting: university tutorials

Prediction of performance

The variable SD is defined as “ the difference between the self-estimate and the actual
grade of an individual”. If the hypothesis is true, then we need to see a correlation
between SD and DO, which is found. However, since correlation does not imply causation
this is not enough. For now, we have the observation that Individuals who rated
themselves higher were rated higher by others, notwithstanding their actual performance.

The hypothesis is that the erroneous evaluation as expressed by SO is due to the degree
of SD in the participants by virtue of this correlation. It is important to note that SO can
only occur if SD exist, otherwise is just a correct judgement.

Is this causal explanation robust? Cause and effect are connected, SD precedes SO, and
the occurrence is consistent. However, it is not clear that alternative explanations can be
ruled out.

First of all, the variable SD, should. However, the observations seem to include those who
are confident and actually do well, which are not self-deceived. In that case, it seems that
there is another variable related to confidence rather than deception.

Moreover, the variable DO measured as the rating of people based

2. How would you investigate the authors' hypothesis if you could design a study from
scratch? You can choose any of the designs discussed in module 3. You will be asked to
indicate what design and what variables you would use, and in general terms how you
would operationalize your variable. Indicate how your choices would resolve some of the
methodological issues you raised in the previous question.