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German authorities said chief executives, Marc Benioff whether Mr. Taylor were for Mr. Taylor to stay for an-
they had dismantled a sus- and Bret Taylor, over their re- spending too much time in a other year or so, but that
pected terror cell on suspi- sponsibilities and how the new role as Twitter Inc.’s didn’t pan out, some of the
cion of planning to overthrow chairman, too much time with people said.
the government, rekindling By Emily Glazer, other CEOs and customers The growing strains ulti-
concerns in the country Aaron Tilley and not enough time on Sales- mately resulted in Salesforce’s
about the risks posed by and Lauren Thomas force product and engineer- announcement last week that
domestic terrorists. A1 ing, the people said. Mr. Taylor would vacate the
business was run for months While the two had worked co-CEO role on Jan. 31, with
The Supreme Court con- before the business-software well together, cracks started Mr. Benioff becoming the sole
sidered stripping state courts provider said last week that forming in recent months that leader again and continuing to
of the power to review parti- Mr. Taylor would exit from created friction between the serve as the company’s chair-
san gerrymanders of congres- Ramesh ‘Sunny’ Balwani, former business partner and ex- the role, people familiar with men, the people familiar with man. Mr. Taylor, 42 years old,
sional districts, examining boyfriend of Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes, was sen- the executives said. the matter said. has shared the top role with
an argument that is some- tenced to nearly 13 years in prison for fraud. B1 Mr. Benioff, who is also co- Ahead of Salesforce’s an- Mr. Benioff for about a year.
times called the independent founder, became frustrated nouncement that Mr. Taylor His planned departure marks
state legislature theory. A4 about how Mr. Taylor was would exit, there was some Please turn to page A6
A search of a Florida
Cracking the
Housing Market German Raids Foil
storage facility conducted on
behalf of lawyers for Trump
turned up two additional
documents with classified
Case: Fabergé
Stumps Forecasters Alleged Terror Plot
markings, people familiar
Or Fauxbergé?
with the operation said. A6
Russia took steps to
bolster its defenses after a
string of strikes deep within
its borders that it blamed on
i
Justice
i i
U.S. NEWS
CAPITAL ACCOUNT | By Greg Ip
KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI/REUTERS
First, South Korea, Japan North America and the min-
and the EU complain that erals in its battery come
the electric-vehicle subsidies from the U.S. or countries
in the Inflation Reduction with which the U.S. has a
Act, which President Biden free-trade agreement.
signed into law in August,
J
discriminate against their apan, South Korea and
manufacturers and suck in- Europe fear their own
vestment from them. Second, EV industries will suffer An employee worked on an assembly line at Rivian’s electric-vehicle factory in Normal, Ill., in April.
those same allies have re- as sales and investment are
buffed U.S. calls to join its diverted to the U.S. The common global objective— was bound to get plenty of tion in October announced China’s long-term goal is self
restrictions on the export of “United States economy will fighting climate change— foreign EV investment with- sweeping restrictions on U.S. sufficiency in all advanced
sensitive semiconductor receive a market-distorting into a zero-sum game,” the out the IRA. companies supplying it with technology, including semi-
technology to China. boost, tilting the global level EU’s executive arm, the Eu- The Treasury Department semiconductor technology. conductors. It does business
There’s a grand bargain to playing field and turning a ropean Commission, com- could use its administrative But this means U.S. com- with Western companies un-
plained. discretion to phase in the panies could lose sales to til its own national champi-
This is a bit rich; Europe IRA’s provisions or define companies unhindered by ons can displace them first
is no slouch when it comes content to allow more of controls. For instance, two of in China and then abroad. It
to market-distorting taxes these manufacturers’ prod- the largest suppliers of semi- has already followed the
and subsidies. France, Italy, ucts to qualify. It could also conductor equipment are script in high-speed rail,
Spain, Britain and the EC un- interpret “free-trade agree- Japan’s Tokyo Electron Ltd. power generation and tele-
veiled “digital services ment” to include not just and the Netherlands’ ASML com gear. If China has its
taxes” designed to hit Ameri- formal bilateral treaties but Holding NV. Neither Japan way, the market share that
can but not European tech broader pacts such as the nor the Netherlands has so South Korean, Japanese and
companies; the taxes are WTO Government Procure- far agreed to adopt similar European chip companies
suspended pending imple- ment Agreement or the Min- export controls to the U.S. are trying to preserve will
mentation of a broader in- erals Security Partnership, They don’t like being pushed vanish in a few decades.
ternational tax agreement. both of which include Japan, around and have relatively
Last year, the EC announced South Korea and the Euro- more to lose than the U.S., THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
subsidies to its own battery pean Union but not mainland not just in exports, but in po-
(USPS 664-880)
alliance. “By establishing a China or Russia. tential retaliation by China. (Eastern Edition ISSN 0099-9660)
complete, decarbonised and Yet the actual economic
I
(Central Edition ISSN 1092-0935)
digital battery value chain in f the U.S. bends to its al- costs of cutting off China are (Western Edition ISSN 0193-2241)
Europe, we can give our in- lies on electric vehicles, small. If controls succeed, Editorial and publication headquarters:
1211 Avenue of the Americas,
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commissioner Thierry Breton the U.S. on semiconductors. chip fabrication in the fu-
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Nonetheless, the allies dominate the design and fab- wide demand for chips, not New York, N.Y., and other mailing offices.
have a point: Why is the Bi- rication of advanced chips, where they are made, that Postmaster: Send address changes to
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challenger Herschel Walker Sinema of Arizona, who forced Day failed to materialize.
comes after two years in which the party to make major “Not only did we fail to win
Vice President Kamala Harris changes and cuts to its tax, a majority, we lost a seat. And
provided a tiebreaking vote in healthcare and climate law. the Senate GOP response is go-
the 50-50 Senate. Next year, any individual sena- ing to be to make no changes?”
“Fifty-one, a slim majority, tor will have less leverage over tweeted Sen. Marco Rubio (R.,
that is great!” Senate Majority the agenda. Fla.).
Leader Chuck Schumer (D., Asked about whether the Some Republicans have
N.Y.) said with a wide smile at 51st seat would lessen the in- blamed what they saw as
a press conference Wednesday, fluence of Mr. Manchin and Ms. weaknesses among GOP chal-
holding up five fingers on one ‘Fifty-one, a slim majority, that is great!’ Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Wednesday. Sinema, Mr. Schumer said the lengers in tough Senate elec-
hand and one finger on the two lawmakers “don’t always tions, undercutting perceived
other. “It’s big, it’s significant, have tied in a committee vote, makes it more difficult for us,” his four years in office, the agree with us on certain issues, GOP strengths on issues such
we can breathe a sigh of re- Democrats have been forced to said Sen. Mitt Romney (R., most in a single term since the but they’re tremendous con- as the economy and crime, as
lief.” hold an extra procedural vote Utah). Jimmy Carter administration. tributors to our caucus and well as Mr. Biden’s low ap-
Since early 2021, the two to finalize their nomination. Mr. Biden has had about 90 A 51st Democratic senator we’ll continue to work with proval ratings.
parties have been operating The Warnock victory will give judicial nominees confirmed by also gives the Democrats them.” “I think we need to learn
under a power-sharing agree- Democrats a narrow majority the Senate so far, as the party slightly more flexibility on Mr. Schumer also said he from our mistakes, which are:
ment with evenly divided com- on each panel. has given priority to getting crafting legislation. Typically, planned to reach out to Repub- if you don’t broaden the appeal
mittees, which has prevented “It’ll be easier for Demo- new judges on the bench. For- bills need 60 votes to pass in licans, but he declined to lay of a candidate who wins the
Democrats from issuing sub- crats to move forward with mer President Donald Trump, a the Senate, requiring biparti- out plans for the next Congress primary in the general election,
poenas to witnesses without some of their nominees, partic- Republican, placed judges in sanship, but some measures or what proposals could get you’re unlikely to win,” said
GOP support. When nominees ularly in the judiciary, and that roughly 230 positions during tied to the budget can pass GOP support. Sen. John Cornyn (R., Texas).
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Mr. Taylor, an entrepreneur the center of one of tech’s (R., Calif.) said Tuesday night
and founder earlier in his tech most contentious battles this on Fox News. He has said he
career, said when his planned year as Elon Musk agreed to would prefer lawmakers pass a
departure was announced that take over the company in short-term spending bill, called
he believed it was time “to re- April, then tried to get out of a continuing resolution, that
turn to my entrepreneurial the deal before eventually runs into 2023 and leave the
roots particularly given the buying it in October. longer-term spending decisions
landscape and economy going Mr. Taylor’s position as for the next Congress.
through such shifts.” Twitter chairman ended as Mr. McCarthy is the front-
At the time, Mr. Benioff Marc Benioff, left, worried that Bret Taylor, right, was spending too much time in managing Twitter. the $44 billion takeover by runner to become the next
thanked Mr. Taylor for his Mr. Musk closed. speaker and has worked to
Salesforce service and said he the prior year, down from 27% them together, according to gaged more directly with cer- Mr. Taylor was credited as shore up support among House
wasn’t happy about the depar- growth in the same quarter a documents viewed by The tain executives who report to the architect of Salesforce’s Republicans, many of whom
ture. “I know he wants to go year earlier. Wall Street Journal. Mr. Taylor, they said. $27.7 billion purchase of want to cut government
create a third great company,” In recent months, Mr. Be- Mr. Benioff, who co- During the World Economic workplace-collaboration com- spending.
Mr. Benioff said, saying he nioff has grown frustrated founded Salesforce in 1999 Forum in Davos, Switzerland, pany Slack Technologies, Senate Minority Leader
hoped Mr. Taylor would re- with the company’s slowdown and remains among its biggest in May, people asked Mr. Tay- Salesforce’s biggest acquisi- Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.), in
turn to Salesforce. and has examined company shareholders, has tried to lor about his work with Twit- tion. Salesforce said this tandem with Mr. McCarthy and
The tech industry faces execution issues in addition to share leadership power at the ter during some Salesforce week that Stewart Butterfield, the top Democratic leaders,
growing challenges in areas the broader economic down- company before. In 2018, events. the CEO and co-founder of met recently with President Bi-
such as cloud-computing soft- turn, some of the people said. Keith Block was promoted to He and Mr. Benioff typically Slack, plans to leave the com- den to discuss the spending
ware that thrived during the The announcement wasn’t co-CEO alongside Mr. Benioff have shared the stage at most pany next month. bill, among other topics.
pandemic. long planned, said people fa- after five years as president. big events, often improvising Through his career, Mr. Senate Majority Leader
Salesforce’s corporate cus- miliar with the matter. Mr. Be- He left 18 months later, saying and bantering to large crowds Taylor has been involved with Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) said
tomers are becoming more nioff will now give a solo key- he was moving on to the next of employees, clients and some of the tech industry’s Tuesday that he and Mr.
conservative with the slowing note at an event Salesforce is chapter. other guests. most notable innovations— McConnell had agreed to work
global economy, leading to the hosting at the Javits Center in With Messrs. Benioff and When it has come time to from Google Maps to Face- together to try to get a full-
slowest quarterly sales New York this week for em- Taylor, there lately was esca- sit on panels with peers, gov- book’s “like” button—and he year spending bill completed.
growth in the company’s his- ployees and customers. lating confusion among some ernment officials or celebri- founded companies that have “Each side is going to have to
tory. Information from mid-No- executives over whom they ties, Mr. Benioff usually has sold for hundreds of millions give in order to send an omni-
In the company’s most re- vember about the summit and should report to, people famil- the sole seat. of dollars. bus to the president’s desk and
cently reported, October quar- related events suggested the iar with the matter said. Mr. Taylor joined Sales- —Laura Cooper avert a pointless, painful gov-
ter, sales grew by 14% from two co-CEOs would be leading Mr. Benioff recently en- force in 2016 through its ac- contributed to this article. ernment shutdown,” he said.
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Thursday, December 8, 2022 | A7
Shallow
Knows their team needs
new software.
Deep
Knows former customer just
joined as a decision maker.
U.S. NEWS
ous career and to what the making the final transfer re- elections, including by pro- wife transferred nearly $4 mil-
watchdog’s report described quest, which the agency’s moting theories about Joe Bi- lion from overseas accounts in
as a series of management medical director approved. den’s involvement in his son the names of shell companies
failures, flawed policies and Officials also neglected to Hunter Biden’s business deal- to a bank account controlled
bureaucratic ineptitude. subject Bulger to an intelli- ings in Ukraine. by an intermediary to purchase
Federal Bureau of Prisons gence assessment that would Mr. Derkach is charged with two Beverly Hills condomini-
officials moved Bulger from a have determined if he should conspiracy to violate the Inter- ums, according to the indict-
facility in Florida where he had be separated from certain orga- national Emergency Economic ment. The intermediary isn’t
lived for years following his nized-crime figures within the Powers Act, conspiring to identified in the indictment.
2013 conviction on a sprawling prison, despite his well-docu- launder money, conspiring to After the U.S. sanctions
racketeering indictment that mented leadership of South commit bank fraud and other were imposed, Mr. Derkach
included involvement in 11 Boston’s Winter Hill Gang. In- criminal counts. continued to direct money in
murders, as well as running a stead, employees at Hazelton “The conduct of this Krem- accounts controlled by the in-
criminal enterprise of drug James ‘Whitey’ Bulger in a file photo from 2011. The Justice told the inspector general they lin asset, who was sanctioned termediary to pay mainte-
dealing, extortion, money laun- Department’s inspector general cited management and policy viewed Bulger as “non-gang af- for trying to poison our de- nance fees and utilities on the
dering and gun running from failures in his transfer to a federal prison in West Virginia, where filiated,” and a manager volun- mocracy, has shown he is two homes. The Beverly Hills
the 1970s to the 1990s. he was killed shortly after his arrival in October 2018. teered to take Bulger into his ready, willing, and capable of properties are now the subject
Prisons officials had been unit despite the presence of at exploiting our banking system of a civil forfeiture action.
pushing for months to move crime boss would be killed be- among other problems. Attor- least one other former orga-
the wheelchair-using Bulger cause of his notoriety as a ney General Merrick Garland nized crime associate in that
from a secure unit at U.S. Pen- government informant. in July named Colette Peters, portion of the prison.
itentiary Coleman II due to Three men—Fotios “Freddy” a former top corrections offi- Bulger’s violent demise
what they described as safety Geas, 55, Paul J. DeCologero, cial in Oregon, to lead the be- added a new layer of intrigue
and discipline concerns. 48, and Sean McKinnon, 36— leaguered agency. to his long life of crime and
“In our view, no BOP in- were indicted in August, nearly Ms. Peters on Wednesday complicated relationship with
mate’s transfer, whether they four years after the killing, on said the agency agreed with the federal government. Prose-
are a notorious gangster or a charges of conspiracy to com- the report and had already be- cutors said Bulger acted as a
nonviolent offender, should be mit first-degree murder. Prose- gun implementing many of its secret FBI informant and fled
handled like Bulger’s transfer cutors alleged Messrs. Geas recommendations. Boston in late 1994 after being
was handled in this instance,” and DeCologero struck Bulger The Bureau of Prisons has tipped off about the pending
Inspector General Michael in the head multiple times, “initiated several improve- indictment against him by his
GLEB GARANICH/REUTERS
Horowitz wrote. causing his death. All three ments to its medical transfer former FBI handler.
At least 100 prison employ- have pleaded not guilty. system including enhanced Bulger was on the lam for
ees were aware of the coming The killing added to a list of communication between em- 16 years before his 2011 arrest,
transfer and some of them troubles facing the federal Bu- ployees involved in the process, when he and his girlfriend
spoke openly about it in the reau of Prisons, which in re- multiple trainings for person- were found living in a rent-
presence of inmates, at least cent years has struggled with nel, and technological advance- controlled Santa Monica, Ca-
one of whom predicted in an misconduct, staffing shortages ments,” the agency said. lif., apartment with $822,000 Andriy Derkach, shown in 2019, is accused of trying to evade U.S.
email to his mother that the and the coronavirus pandemic, Mr. Horowitz’s investiga- hidden in the walls. sanctions from his alleged interference in the 2020 presidential race.
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THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. * * * * Thursday, December 8, 2022 | A9
CAITLIN OCHS/REUTERS
from lobbyists, corporations, or chief of staff whose resigna-
other special interests.” Gaming Panel Says tion was announced last week,
—Natalie Andrews Casino Broke Law was accused in October of
having inappropriate contact
MICHIGAN A North Carolina tribal casino with two women in separate
violated federal law by allowing encounters outside the office,
Victim’s Family Sues deep-pocketed outsiders exces- according to two people famil- Attorney General Letitia James says she was ‘confident in the steps that were taken.’
City, Former Officer sive control over the facility’s ex- iar with the matter.
pansion, according to the find- Ms. James on Wednesday keeping the matter quiet until pared by the law firm Littler taining the normal preclear-
The family of Patrick Lyoya, a ings of an investigation by the thanked the women who came after her re-election last Mendelson P.C. There is a dif- ance from the state controller’s
Black man who was killed during National Indian Gaming Commis- forward and said an outside month. Ms. James defeated ference between a private office. Mr. Schmitt said select-
a traffic stop this spring, is suing sion made public Wednesday. investigation substantiated Republican Michael Henry by complaint and the investiga- ing the firm compromised the
the city of Grand Rapids, Mich., The NIGC issued a “Notice of their allegations. Within 24 nearly 10 percentage points. tion into Mr. Cuomo, which public’s trust because Littler
and the former police officer who Violation” against the Catawba hours of a complaint being Ms. James’s 2021 investiga- began with a referral from the Mendelson recently hired an
shot him in the back of the head. Indian Nation’s casino in Kings filed, the attorney general’s of- tion into allegations of sexual former governor’s office, Ms. attorney, Johane Severin, from
The civil lawsuit, filed Mountain, N.C., and various out- fice told Mr. Khan to work harassment by Mr. Cuomo cul- James said Wednesday, ac- Ms. James’s office.
Wednesday in the U.S. District side backers. from home, she said. He re- minated in a report she re- cording to a video published The AG’s office first became
Court for the Western District of Casino officials say they will signed while the investigation leased last August, in which by the New York Post. aware of the allegations
Michigan, alleges former Grand resolve any matters of concern. was ongoing, she said. two outside lawyers detailed The attorney general should against Mr. Khan on Oct. 2 and
Rapids police officer Christopher —Mark Maremont “I am confident in the steps how Mr. Cuomo harassed mul- release the report on Mr. Khan, advised him the next day to
that were taken to swiftly re- tiple women who worked for with redactions to protect the work remotely and refrain
view the allegations and in the him in violation of state and identity of the complainants, from socializing with col-
integrity of the investigation,” federal law. said the Sexual Harassment leagues, deputy general coun-
Ms. James said. He denied forcibly touching Working Group, an advocacy sel Serena Longley said in an
In a statement last Friday, anybody but was forced to re- organization formed by people email released Monday.
Mr. Khan said he resigned af- sign and said Ms. James’s work who were harassed by New Mr. Khan tendered his res-
ter the completion of Ms. was motivated by politics. York politicians. “The public ignation on Nov. 22 effective
James’s first term in office and Ms. James said her conclu- has received information in at the end of the year, accord-
said his decision was unrelated sions—which were released pieces, leading to a lack of clar- ing to a letter released by Ms.
to the investigation. Neither publicly in a 168-page report— ity,” the group said Tuesday. Longley.
Mr. Khan nor his lawyer re- were based on interviews with Rich Azzopardi, a spokes- She said Ms. James’s office
CARLOS OSORIO/ASSOCIATED PRESS
turned messages seeking com- 179 people and reviews of tens man for Mr. Cuomo, said Ms. hired an outside firm because
ment on Wednesday. of thousands of documents. “I James was being hypocritical. of Mr. Khan’s senior position.
Ms. James’s handling of the am inspired by all the brave “She ‘believes all women’ when The investigative team didn’t
episode has prompted criti- women who came forward, but it is in her political interest— include any former employees
cism from an advocacy group, more important, I believe otherwise, she attacks the ac- of the attorney general’s office,
some New York Republicans them,” Ms. James said in Au- cuser or covers up the com- Ms. Longley wrote in an email
and Mr. Cuomo’s aides. They gust 2021. plaint,” Mr. Azzopardi said. shared with reporters.
said Ms. James didn’t immedi- The attorney general’s of- Assemblyman Colin Schmitt, A representative from Littler
ately release information fice has thus far not made a Republican, faulted Ms. Mendelson said Ms. Severin
Peter Lyoya wipes his eyes after looking at video of his son’s about what had occurred and public the investigative report James’s office for retaining an had no involvement with or
shooting during a news conference on Wednesday in Detroit. Republicans accused her of into Mr. Khan, which was pre- outside law firm without ob- awareness of the investigation.
WORLD NEWS
Peru Congress Ousts Embattled President
Castillo is removed can embassy. Mexican Foreign new constitution and said a
Minister Marcelo Ebrard said national curfew would be im-
after he tries to dissolve his government would likely plemented.
the legislature to hold grant Mr. Castillo asylum if re- “Congress has destroyed
quested, according to a tran- the rule of law, democracy, the
off his impeachment script of comments he gave to separation and balance of
Mexican media. He said he had powers…with the goal of de-
BY RYAN DUBE not heard from the former stroying the presidency and
German
Raids Foil
Coup Plot
BORIS ROESSLER/DPA/ASSOCIATED PRESS
WORLD NEWS
LIBKOS/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Greeting Polish pilgrims at tion of the operation the pope
his weekly public audience at acknowledged in his remarks.
the Vatican, the pope noted a “However, given what cre-
recent commemoration of Op- ated the conditions for it—the
eration Reinhardt, the 1941 unjustified military aggression
German effort to exterminate of one country against an-
the Jews of Poland, which other—we can speak, in some
killed about two million people. sense, of history repeating it- A resident leaves his home after Russian shelling destroyed a Bakhmut apartment building in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.
“History repeats itself, re- self, from which humanity has
peats itself. Look at what is
happening now in Ukraine,”
the pope said, in an apparently
off-the-cuff comment added to
not learned its lesson,” he said.
Pope Francis has frequently
deplored the suffering of
Ukrainians since Russia’s full-
Russia Boosts Defenses After Strikes
his prepared text. scale invasion in February, but BY IAN LOVETT bomber bases in the cities of home and family,” Vyacheslav deliberately targeting civilians.
The pope in November has generally avoided explic- Engels and Diagilevo—both hun- Gladkov wrote on Telegram. Igor Girkin, a former Russian
compared the war in Ukraine itly blaming Moscow, a prac- Russia took steps to dreds of miles from Ukrainian- Russian President Vladimir militant commander and an in-
to Stalin’s 1930s terror famine, tice he defended in November. strengthen its defenses follow- controlled territory—were hit. Putin gathered his national se- fluential voice among Russian
which he called genocide. “It is well known whom I ing a string of strikes deep Kyiv hasn’t claimed respon- curity council Tuesday to dis- hard-liners, visited troops in
Though he followed his usual am condemning. It is not nec- within its borders that it sibility for the strikes. Though cuss how to guarantee “inter- Donbas recently. He wrote Tues-
practice of not naming Russia essary that I put a name and blamed on Kyiv, while Moscow’s Ukrainian forces aren’t be- nal security,” state media said. day on Telegram that what he
as the aggressor on Wednes- surname,” the pope told the forces launched drones and lieved to possess the kinds of “There is a realistic possibil- found was a poorly motivated
day, his latest comment U.S. Catholic magazine Amer- missiles at southern Ukraine. long-range cruise missiles that ity that the Russian authorities Russian army, especially com-
seemed likely to irritate Mos- ica. “Why do I not name Putin? Several villages in Ukraine’s Moscow has used to hit infra- are promoting defensive prep- pared with Ukrainian forces.
cow, which has presented its Because it is not necessary.” Zaporizhzhia region were hit structure across Ukraine, offi- arations within internationally “The troops are fighting ‘by in-
by drones and S-300 surface- cials have hinted that they recognized Russian territory to ertia,’ not having the slightest
to-air missiles overnight, gov- have the ability to hit bases burnish patriotic feeling,” the idea of the ultimate strategic
ernor Oleksandr Starukh said deep inside Russia. British Ministry of Defense goals of the current military
Wednesday. More than 20 Moscow, meanwhile, has wrote Tuesday on Twitter. campaign,” he said, noting that
homes were struck and three been bolstering its defenses Meanwhile, the most intense fighters from Luhansk and Do-
people were injured, including across its land border with fighting has been taking place netsk were better motivated.
a 15-year-old girl, he said. Ukraine, according to the Brit- in eastern Ukraine, where Rus- “Ukraine will NOT freeze in
Nikopol, in the neighboring ish Ministry of Defense. sian forces have been pushing winter, will NOT rebel and will
Dnipropetrovsk region, was hit The governor of Russia’s to take the city of Bakhmut. NOT fight worse. Vice versa. Its
ANDREW MEDICHINI/ASSOCIATED PRESS
by heavy artillery that destroyed Belgorod region, which borders Wednesday, Ukrainian Presi- soldiers, who have already be-
a dozen homes and damaged northeastern Ukraine, on Tues- dent Volodymyr Zelensky said lieved in their strength as a re-
gas pipelines and a school, said day announced the creation of Russian forces carried out an sult of the autumn victo-
governor Valentyn Reznichenko. territorial defense units. “We attack on Kurakhove—a town in ries…will only fight angrier and
The Russian strikes come af- are forming several battalions the eastern Donetsk region— more stubbornly,” he wrote.
ter a series of drone strikes of those who, due to health that he said was aimed at civil- “And they will be met only by
deep inside Russia earlier this reasons or within the limits of ians “at the market, elevator, apathetic performance of duty,
week. On Tuesday, drones hit an age, cannot be called up by the gas station, bus station, resi- behind which many fighters and
airfield in the Russian city of armed forces, but have combat dential building.’’ At least 10 commanders have long been
Kursk, igniting a fuel-storage fa- experience and a great desire, people were killed and many [asking] the unresolved ques-
Pope Francis had earlier compared the war to Stalin’s terror famine. cility. A day earlier, strategic- if necessary, to defend their wounded. Moscow has denied tion: ‘What are we doing here.’ ”
WORLD WATCH
SCIENCE INDONESIA UNITED KINGDOM
Two-Million-Year-Old Freed Bomb Maker Airport Staff Plan
DNA Is Analyzed Kills Officer in Attack Christmas Walkout
Scientists have analyzed A Muslim militant and con- Britain’s Conservative govern-
what they say is the oldest DNA victed bomb maker who was re- ment on Wednesday threatened
recovered to date, allowing them leased from prison last year blew “tough” action to curb strikes, as
to reconstruct what life was like himself up Wednesday at a police airport passport officers became
two million years ago in north- station on Indonesia’s main island the latest public-sector workers
ern Greenland. of Java, killing an officer and to announce December walkouts.
The findings suggest a rich wounding 11 people, officials said. The Public and Commercial
ecosystem that sustained a mix The attacker entered the Services Union said its members
of animals and plants that Astana Anyar police station with at Gatwick, Heathrow, Manches-
doesn’t coexist anywhere on a motorcycle and detonated one ter, Birmingham and Cardiff air-
Earth today. of two bombs he was carrying as ports would strike for eight days
The researchers analyzed police were lining up for a morn- between Dec. 23 and Dec. 31,
fragments of ancient DNA pre- ing assembly, said Bandung city one of the busiest times of year
served in the area’s sediments. Police Chief Aswin Sipayung. The for international travel.
Based on the analysis, what is other explosive was defused. Labor unrest has spread
now a polar desert was once National Police Chief Gen. across both public- and private-
much warmer. Listyo Sigit Prabowo said sector workplaces as employees
The region hosted mast- Wednesday that the attacker seek pay raises to keep up with
odons, reindeer, lemmings and was believed to have been a inflation that has hit 11.1%,
geese, as well as birch, poplar member of the militant organi- driven by soaring prices for en-
and thuja trees. Horseshoe zation Jemaah Anshorut Daulah, ergy and food.
crabs, green algae and other ma- which pledged allegiance to the Railway staff and postal
rine life occupied nearby waters. Islamic State group and was re- workers are engaged in a series
Eske Willerslev of the Univer- sponsible for other deadly sui- of 24- or 48-hour walkouts. Brit-
sity of Cambridge, who helped cide bombings in Indonesia. ish nurses are due to strike on
lead the research, described it as He said police identified the Dec. 15. Ambulance crews and
a “mixture of Arctic and temper- man as Agus Sujatno, also dispatchers plan to walk out on
ate ecosystems with no present known by his alias Abu Muslim. Dec. 21 and Dec. 28.
day analogues.” He was released from the Nu- The government says public-
The samples are a million sakambangan prison island last sector workers deserve raises,
years older than the previous re-
cord holder—DNA taken from a
year after completing a four-
year sentence on charges of ter-
but double-digit increases are
unaffordable. U.K. Prime Minister
TIED WITH A BOW
one-million-year-old Siberian
mammoth bone.
rorist funding and making explo-
sives that were used in a 2017
Rishi Sunak’s spokesman, Max
Blain, said government officials
ELKINGTON TEA CADDY
The study was published attack on a municipal building were discussing new powers, Delightful design. Glorious details. Prized firm.
Wednesday in the journal Na- also in Bandung, the capital of but he wouldn’t say what they
ture. West Java province. were considering. This ornate silver tea caddy crafted by prominent silversmith Frederick
—Josh Ulick —Associated Press —Associated Press Elkington takes the fanciful form of a gilded gift box. A cherished ritual
in Victorian homes, tea was a treasured commodity, worthy of a prized
vessel. This beautiful caddy features a chinoiserie motif of pheasants
and peonies with gilt details. A celebrated firm, Elkington & Co. created
exquisite works for Queen Victoria, George V and the monarchs of Spain
and Italy. Hallmarked Birmingham 1876. 65/8”w x 71/2”h. #31-4712
TRAIN CRASH: Spanish officials said 155 people were hurt in an accident Wednesday in Montcada i
Reixac, a town just north of Barcelona. No serious injuries were reported.
A12 | Thursday, December 8, 2022 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
WORLD NEWS
CFOTO/DDP/ZUMA PRESS
year, the biggest drop since lining. last December followed moves
February 2020, when a nation- Exports to the U.S. fell 25% by leaders in Vilnius to support
wide lockdown ground eco- from the year prior in Novem- Taiwan, which Beijing consid-
nomic activities to a halt. ber, the fourth straight ers a breakaway province.
Economists polled by The Wall monthly decline, after a 13% The EU on Wednesday said
Street Journal had forecast a drop in October, while sales of as a result of China’s restric-
2% decline. Cargo ships dock to load and unload containers at the terminal in China’s Lianyungang Port. goods to the European Union tions, trade between it and
The sharper-than-expected dropped 11%, versus a 9% de- Lithuania fell 80% this year
plunge comes amid weakening ple’s living conditions. China's imports and exports, health authority began paring cline in October. through October. China’s re-
factory activity and a sluggish In a meeting on Tuesday change from one year earlier back tight Covid restrictions, Shipments of nearly all strictions cover exports di-
recovery in China’s property chaired by President Xi Jin- allowing Covid patients who types of goods, including furni- rectly from Lithuania and Lith-
Exports Imports
sector, adding pressure on Bei- ping, top Communist Party of- show mild or no symptoms to ture, toys and electronics, re- uanian elements of goods
jing to shore up economic con- ficials called for a fine-tuning recover at home, instead of in treated sharply—further evi- exported from other EU coun-
fidence at home. of the country’s Covid-19 re- 150 % a government quarantine cen- dence that consumers in the tries, the bloc said.
November’s data may also strictions and urged measures ter, a major step by the coun- West are cutting back on goods Lithuania’s annual exports
portend badly for the global to boost market confidence try to experiment with living spending as inflation remains to China are valued at more
100
economy, economists say, as a and domestic demand. Offi- with the virus. Most require- elevated in many countries. than €220 million ($231.3 mil-
sustained slide in Chinese ex- cials have to “better coordi- ments for virus testing and International trade growth lion), but a broader concern is
ports sends a signal that a nate pandemic prevention and scanning health QR codes is likely to slow at the end of “a chilling effect” on trade in
50
boom in trade that powered the need for economic and so- when entering places will be 2022 and early 2023 as eco- the EU, a bloc official said.
global growth in 2021 is fading, cial development,” according scrapped. nomic activity weakens, many “China has applied discrimi-
adding to the risk of a reces- to the government’s readout of 0 Still, many economists warn economists say. natory and coercive measures”
sion. Central banks in the U.S. the Politburo meeting. that China’s shift to reopening China’s imports fell 11% in with its policies, the EU said.
and other developed countries The pledge by Chinese pol- won’t translate into a sharp November from a year earlier, China’s Ministry of Com-
have been raising interest rates icy makers to make economic -50 rebound, especially as the exceeding a 4% drop antici- merce said it regretted the
to tame inflation, damping de- stability a priority in 2023 is country still falls short of pated by economists. It was EU’s decision. It said China
2019 ’20 ’21 ’22
mand for Chinese goods. the most recent recognition of preparation, such as ramping the largest decline in 30 would handle the matter in line
The International Monetary the toll from the country’s Source: Wind up the vaccination rate among months. with the WTO’s dispute-settle-
Fund expects the global eco- stringent Covid policy, which the elderly. The result is a reversal of ment procedures and would
nomic growth rate to slow to has crippled supply chains, sti- China’s growth this year to be Others predict the exit from China’s surging trade surplus, “resolutely safeguard its legiti-
2.7% in 2023, down from 3.2% fled consumer spending and the weakest in decades, ex- a zero-Covid policy could be which narrowed from $85 bil- mate rights and interests.”
projected for this year and 6% most recently, fueled mass cluding 2020, when the pan- chaotic, with a surge in cases lion in October to nearly $70 The EU’s trade office said it
in 2021 as inflation cuts into protests across major cities in demic struck. inflicting more pain on the billion in November, official filed a separate complaint
economic activities and peo- China. Economists now expect On Wednesday, China’s economy in the near term. data show. against limits China placed on
the ability of EU high-tech pat-
ent holders to file lawsuits out-
tions in the Indo-Pacific region. cion. Still, Beijing has pledged riers to closer cooperation. junctions China unilaterally
The two nations said they to take control of Taiwan by Beijing has previously said imposes rules for the benefit
would put more munitions and force if necessary. that the U.S. military buildup of its own enterprises, to the
fuel in Australia to support The outcome of the talks in in northern Australia could detriment of the WTO multi-
U.S. military activity, jointly Washington underscores Aus- spark an arms race. China has lateral system for the protec-
develop airfields in northern tralia’s key position in U.S. also made expansive claims on tion of intellectual property
Australia to support increased strategy for the Indo-Pacific, the South China Sea, which the rights,” the EU said.
rotations of U.S. aircraft, ex- some security analysts said. Defense ministers from the U.S., U.K. and Australia met Wednesday. U.S. has rejected, and sought Brussels this year filed less-
pand locations where U.S. That strategy appears to in- to increase its influence with formal complaints on both is-
troops can conduct exercises volve boosting the U.S. pres- countries signed a three-way ons and which U.S. officials Pacific island nations. sues, but didn’t achieve satis-
and further integrate their de- ence in northern Australia, military pact with the U.K. view as crucial to deterrence. The U.S., in response, has factory results. Both issues
fense-industrial bases. They which could serve as a staging that will help Australia de- “The past several years been seeking to build a network “are highly damaging to Euro-
invited Japan, another ally, to ground for allied forces should velop a nuclear-powered-sub- have seen a profound shift in of allies as a counterweight, pean businesses,” the bloc’s
participate in three-way mili- there be a conflict with China. marine capability. the U.S.-Australia relation- while enhancing the U.S. mili- trade office said.
tary drills. The U.S. and Australia had In recent weeks, Australian ship,” said Charles Edel, Aus- tary footprint in the region. The outcome of filings in
“China’s dangerous and co- been deepening defense coop- officials said upgrades to an air tralia chair at the Center for China-Australia ties have the WTO is far from certain
ercive actions throughout the eration, and U.S. Marines have force base in northern Austra- Strategic and International frayed in recent years, though because the 164-member or-
Indo-Pacific, including around been rotating into northern lia would allow it to accommo- Studies in Washington. “The China is Australia’s biggest ganization is partially para-
Taiwan, toward the Pacific is- Australia for annual training date up to six B-52 bombers, U.S.-Australia relationship will trading partner and buys lyzed by disputes among the
land countries and in the East exercises. Last year, the two which can carry nuclear weap- take on increasing significance much of its iron ore. U.S., China and other members.
WORLD NEWS
0
ally, with the government
spending $47 billion more than
planned. In a year when global
growth is pegged at 3.2%, the
“But we are still connected, we
are part of the world,” he
added, and there is “potential
downside risk for the world
$27B
Saudi Arabia’s budget surplus
being considered, he said.
Some of the ambitious proj-
ects Prince Mohammed has
announced: A plan to build a
policy decision were split on International Monetary Fund economy that is bothering us.” for this year 1,700-feet tall, 75-mile-long
how big a rate rise the bank 2010 ’20 predicts growth of 7.6% this The kingdom is experienc- skyscraper in a futuristic
would deliver. Half said a half Source: Bank of Canada year in Saudi Arabia. The king- ing a surprisingly successful group of communities known
point, given labor-market dom’s output is expected to year even as the U.S., Europe as Neom; an airport that aims
tightness and stronger-than- annual inflation was 6.9% in Oc- reach $1 trillion for the first and many developing econo- Prince Mohammed, the 37- to become one of the world’s
expected growth, and the tober, matching the previous time, cementing its place among mies are facing rising inflation year-old who rules Saudi Ara- busiest international hubs; and
other half expected a quarter- month’s advance but down from the world’s biggest economies. and recessions. While much of bia on behalf of his father. He an island-beach resort.
point increase, citing signs of a peak of 8.1% in June. The boom times have ex- the world has been hit by rose to power during the oil- Saudi Arabia also is pouring
weaker consumer spending. The central bank said the tended to Saudi Arabia’s Gulf higher food and energy prices price crash of 2015 and over- money into redeveloping the
The Bank of Canada said fu- series of rate increases this neighbors, demonstrating how spurred by the Ukraine war, saw a period of austerity mea- downtown areas of its top me-
ture policy decisions would be year is starting to curb house- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine oil giants such as Saudi Arabia sures for average Saudis, even tropolises, Riyadh and Jeddah,
guided by incoming data. Pre- hold demand. The bank said has redrawn the world’s energy and its neighbors are benefit- as he pushed an ambitious as well as a dozen of smaller
viously, the bank had said in- upward price pressures may map and created new economic ing from the influx of revenue. program to diversify the coun- cities. Its sovereign-wealth in-
terest rates would be headed be losing momentum. winners and losers. The United The Saudi government said try’s economy away from oil. vestment vehicle, the Public
higher to contain inflation. Most economists surveyed Arab Emirates and its commer- revenues increased 28% to That effort, known as Vision Investment Fund, has poured
The central bank’s mandate by the Journal said the central cial hub Dubai have benefited $328 billion on higher oil sales 2030 for the year it hopes to be money into new companies, in-
is to set interest rates to achieve bank likely would pause once this year from high oil prices this year, with $300 billion pre- completed, was initiated in 2016 cluding an effort to create its
and maintain 2% inflation. The rates hit 4.25%. and a flood of Russian money dicted for next year. It expects as the kingdom grappled with own electric-vehicle car brand.
Sizzles The task force is run out of value of the materials,” Mr. Some leading members of
FROM LEFT: ROSS D. FRANKLIN/ASSOCIATED PRESS; NIC ANTAYA FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
New housing construction in Phoenix in August 2021. Right, Ole Wendroth, at left, and Amanda Wendroth at their apartment in Ann Arbor, Mich. They put off looking for a house to buy amid high interest rates.
20%
Existing home sales,
change from a year earlier*
veyed by the National Associa-
tion of Home Builders said they
cut prices in November, and al-
Forecast 10
0% most 60% of builders said they
used incentives to attract buy-
ers, such as paying lenders to
Confounds 0 –5
reduce buyers’ mortgage rates.
In the Denver area, real-es-
tate agents are being offered
RECESSION generous commissions and bo-
–10
Continued from Page One nuses “from builders who six
they stood in the decades when 1980 '85 '90 '95 2000 '05 '10 '15 '20 –10 months ago would not talk to a
many older Americans bought real-estate broker,” said Lou
their first homes. How much the housing sector added to or subtracted from U.S. gross domestic product* Barnes, a third-generation
“When prices are rising, peo- –15
mortgage banker in Boulder,
2 pct. pts
ple can’t believe housing will Colo.
ever go down, and then once 1 When home prices start to
prices fall, they can’t believe it fall, said Phillippe Lord, chief
will ever go up,” said Glenn Kel- 0 –20 executive of Scottsdale, Ariz.-
man, chief executive at real-es- based builder Meritage Homes
tate brokerage Redfin Corp. –1 Corp., “buyers are hesitant until
The pandemic caused home they are confident that they’ve
sales to surge in 2020 and –2 –25 sort of reached bottom.”
2021. Home buyers looked for Mr. Lord said he expects
more space with the rise in re- –3 meaningful price declines in
mote work and rock-bottom in- RECESSION some markets, especially in the
terest rates made buying a –4 –30 West. Meritage has cut its
home affordable for many 1980 '90 2000 '10 '20 Oct. 2021 Jan. '22 Oct. prices in some markets, and its
Americans. *At a seasonally adjusted annual rate cancellation rate rose to 30% in
Home prices soared 45% be- Sources: Federal Housing Finance Agency (house-price index); Commerce Department (contributions to GDP); National Association of Realtors (home sales) the third quarter, up from 13%
tween January 2020 and June the prior quarter.
2022, according to the S&P and because housing itself is an the supply of homes for sale re- Home prices stopped in- down—yeah, you’re in some Some of the housing markets
CoreLogic Case-Shiller National important contributor to infla- mains lower than normal for creasing after the Fed jacked up trouble,” said Fed governor that posted the strongest
Home Price Index. Rents also tion. Other factors, such as this time of year. interest rates in 1979, but prices Christopher Waller at a discus- home-price growth in recent
soared as younger people chose wage increases, could keep in- Taylor and Teri Abbett, who and sales picked up again in sion hosted by UBS in Sydney years are leveling off the fast-
to move out on their own flation on the boil. have three daughters, looked in 1983 after the Fed slowed its last month. But for many home- est. In the four weeks ended
rather than live with room- 2020 and 2021 for a bigger aggressive rate increases. owners who bought in 2020 or Nov. 27, pending home sales fell
mates. house to buy in the Pittsburgh Fannie Mae is forecasting earlier, their homes would still the most year-over-year in Las
Federal Reserve Chair Je- Low supply area. They lost out on about that home prices will fall 1.5% be worth far more than they Vegas; Phoenix; Austin, Texas;
rome Powell went so far re- The surge in interest rates four offers. next year and 1.4% in 2024. paid, even if prices fell 15%, he Jacksonville, Fla.; and Sacra-
cently as to call the boom phase has pushed both buyers and Earlier this year, with inter- Others take a more negative said. mento, Calif., according to Red-
of the housing market a “bub- sellers out of the housing mar- est rates climbing, the Abbetts view, though most forecasters Recently, the number of fin.
ble.” ket. Buyers have been priced gave up and decided to stick expect the current housing homes for sale has increased as In Sacramento, which be-
“You had housing prices go- out, or they have retreated be- with their current mortgage, downturn to be shorter than homes sit on the market longer. came a major destination for
ing up at very unsustainable cause they think prices might which has an interest rate be- the prolonged slump following In the four weeks ended Nov. people relocating from the Bay
levels and overheating,” he said be lower in the future. low 3%, Mr. Abbett said. the subprime crisis. Real-estate 27, the number of active listings Area during the pandemic, me-
at a Nov. 30 event. “Now the Ole and Amanda Wendroth “If [home prices] are still in- research and advisory firm Zel- on the market rose 12.9% from dian single-family home-sale
housing market’s going to go scrapped plans to buy a starter flated and you’re having to pay man & Associates, a unit of a year earlier, according to Red- prices climbed from $400,000
through the other side of that home in Ann Arbor, Mich., ear- a higher interest rate, then it’s Walker & Dunlop Inc., expects fin, the real-estate brokerage. in March 2020 to a peak of
and hopefully come out in a lier this year after being repeat- sort of a no-brainer to step home prices to fall 12% from But the new listings of homes $560,000 in June 2022, accord-
better place.” edly outbid. They resumed this back and see what happens,” he their peak a few months ago for sale in that period fell 21% ing to the Sacramento Associa-
Next year’s predictions for fall, and then paused their said. through late 2024, before start- from a year earlier, and supply tion of Realtors. By October, the
home prices are unusually var- search again. Even though The relatively low inventory ing to rebound. John Burns remains lower than normal. median price had dropped to
ied, economists say. KPMG LLP, houses now are sitting on the is one reason the current Real Estate Consulting expects “What’s stunning is that $510,000.
an audit and consulting firm, is market longer and prices are plunge in housing activity looks prices to fall 20% peak-to- price declines are occurring “We may have further to go,
calling for prices to fall 20% starting to fall, interest rates different from the subprime cri- trough and also expects the low without a lot of excess supply,” but I just can’t see us going
next year, and Goldman Sachs have risen so much that their sis of 2007, which caused years point near the end of 2024. said Diane Swonk, chief econo- back to the pre-pandemic
Group Inc. forecasts a 7.5% expected monthly payment of home-price declines and mil- mist at KPMG. “It’s all about af- $400,000,” said Erin Stumpf,
drop. The National Association would be more than $1,000 be- lions of foreclosures, triggering fordability.” who has been a real-estate
of Realtors, meanwhile, is fore- yond what they pay in rent. a global financial crisis that rip- Healthier lending Ms. Swonk said she fears agent in Sacramento since
casting a 1.2% increase in exist- “The math just doesn’t add pled through the rest of the Homeowners have more eq- that falling home prices could 2005. “I have a lot of buyers
ing-home prices, and the Mort- up,” Mr. Wendroth said. economy. uity in their homes than they kick off a vicious cycle, particu- right now that I think are wait-
gage Bankers Association sees Real-estate agents say unless An impending downturn did ahead of the last downturn, larly if the economy enters a re- ing for the first of the year.”
prices up 0.7% next year. people have to sell their homes could look more like the pierc- and tighter lending standards cession and job losses rise. As Many prospective buyers can
How long the slump in sales due to life events like job relo- ing but swift decline in activity since then mean they’re un- home values decline, consumers still qualify for loans at current
lasts depends in part on how cations or divorces, they are recorded in the early 1980s, likely to default as long as their crimp their spending because interest rates, but they are
long it takes the Fed to get con- staying put. Almost 70% of when the Fed raised rates to incomes don’t drop suddenly. they feel less wealthy. afraid to buy when prices are
trol of inflation, which is run- households with mortgages double-digits to address very The homeowners most at While many buyers and sell- falling and mortgage rates are
ning at a 40-year high and has have rates below 4%, and they high inflation, said Doug Dun- risk are those who bought ers are waiting to see where the volatile, said Sheryl Palmer,
triggered the most rapid series are reluctant to trade in a low can, chief economist at Fannie homes when prices were near market will go, home builders chief executive of Scottsdale-
of interest-rate increases by the mortgage rate for a higher one Mae. their peak. About 8% of homes need to keep selling homes. based builder Taylor Morrison
Fed since the early 1980s. The on a new home. “People simply stopped bought with mortgages in 2022 Builders increased production Home Corp.
Fed’s efforts to slow the econ- Home prices so far haven’t transacting,” he said. “As soon were underwater as of Septem- in recent years to meet de- “Our buyers can afford to
omy in great part depend on dropped sharply. Prices have as the Fed got control of infla- ber, according to mortgage-data mand, and they have a large buy,” she said. “So much of this
the housing market slumping, slid from their springtime tion and started working it firm Black Knight Inc. backlog of homes still under is sentiment, and fear, and try-
both because that cools off de- peaks, but they are still above down, you saw transactions “If you bought at the peak construction. ing to understand where things
mand for goods and services, year-ago levels, largely because start to pick up.” and you put very little money About 37% of builders sur- are going.”
PERSONAL JOURNAL.
© 2022 Dow Jones & Company. All Rights Reserved. THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Thursday, December 8, 2022 | A15
Debate on Southwest
policy for or against seat-saving.
and more ways to jump the “I wasn’t going to get into a
screaming match over a seat,” she
line can lead to drama
FROM TOP: DANIEL SLIM/AFP/GETTY IMAGES; ILLUSTRATION BY DOMINIC BUGATTO
T
in the C group, the “Good Manners for Nice People
last to board. Who Sometimes Say F*ck,” says
aylor Swift mentioned During board- passengers peeved by Southwest’s
it in a graduation ing, she noticed a boarding are triggered by a sense
speech. United Airlines family seated in of unfairness.
launched an ad cam- aisles across from “We have an accountant in our
paign around it. And each other, taking brain looking at when people are
first-time passengers up six seats. The cheating and freeloading,” she says.
are so flummoxed by it that there small passenger in Southwest has never taken a
are online tutorials. one of the window stance on seat-saving because it
Southwest Airlines famously seats next to two says it doesn’t want flight atten-
doesn’t assign seats. school-age boys dants to become seat police.
The Dallas-based carrier, which didn’t look right. But that is what it often comes
handles more domestic passengers The boys kept to, says Lyn Montgomery, presi-
than any other U.S. airline, has a their eyes down, dent of the Southwest flight atten-
boarding and open-seating policy but the parents dants’ union. “It’s a problem, be-
that stands alone in the annals of across the aisle cause it creates another instigator
airline awkwardness. Travelers are looked guilty and in the world of the skies that we
quickly fessed up, work in,” she says.
she says. The win- Ms. Montgomery says flight at-
dow seat was oc- tendants try to defuse seat-saving
$15
Starting price, one way, passengers
cupied by two
stacked backpacks
covered in a zip-
pered hooded sweatshirt. The par- Group C, launched in a few key cit- rest of his family.
situations and similar matters
with humor when possible. That is
why Southwest passengers often
hear cheeky announcements dur-
pay for early boarding ents told the boys to let Ms. Leim- ies where the airlines compete. It Abby Hopper flies several times ing boarding advising them not to
bach have the seat. offers to call Southwest passengers a month for her job as a Washing- avert eye contact or pile items on
“They just slouched it so strate- to remind them to check in exactly ton, D.C., lobbyist and has a favor- the middle seat in the hopes that
gically,” she says. 24 hours before their flight to ite seat on Southwest: the exit-row passengers will pass by their row
free to pick any empty seat when Southwest says that its board- avoid Southwest’s last boarding window seat with no seat in front in the search for a seat.
they board. Boarding order is de- ing approach is manageable and group, the dreaded C group. A of it, a prized spot with endless Ms. Swift and her mother had
termined by several factors, in- that there are no plans to switch United representative says 8,000 legroom. Ms. Hopper has the high- their own shtick when they flew
cluding ticket type, frequent-flier to assigned seats. (The airline is people have signed up. A Southwest est-tier frequent-flier status on Southwest on a radio tour early in
status and time of online check-in. experimenting with allowing fami- spokesman calls the campaign “a Southwest, which comes with pri- her career, according to her New
The quest to nab a good seat lies on the plane first in Atlanta to great courtesy they’re extending.” ority boarding. York University commencement
on Southwest has long spawned a speed up boarding.) Seat-saving is the hot-button On Ms. Hopper’s flight to New speech in May.
crowd of people hoping to pre- “This is not a religious belief,” issue for some Southwest frequent Orleans on Friday, her boarding She said the tour “sounds in-
board, seat-saving and gimmicks Andrew Watterson, Southwest’s fliers and those passengers who position was A16. That is generally credibly glamorous, but in reality
to keep passengers from sitting in chief operating officer, says of pay early-boarding fees starting at the best position a passenger can it consisted of a rental car, motels
your row. The stakes have only in- open seating. “It’s a business deci- $15 a person one way. Passengers get without buying the airline’s and my mom and I pretending to
creased as Southwest has offered sion based upon what customers near the front of the boarding line priciest ticket or paying last-min- have loud mother-daughter fights
more ways to cut the line for a fee. tell us. And right now each time save seats for family members or ute for upgraded boarding, which with each other during boarding
Fresh off the night shift in the we ask, customers tell us, ‘We pre- colleagues farther back in line. On starts at $30 one way. so no one would want the empty
intensive-care unit, Dallas nurse fer it this way.’ If customers tell us a Southwest flight a few months There was nobody in the seat seat between us on Southwest.”
Maddie Leimbach was desperate they want it differently, we’ll ago, a passenger sat in the window when she approached the row, but
for a window seat and a nap on change it like that.” seat in my row and plopped items it was covered by a coat. She says Southwest to resume quarterly
her flight to Phoenix the morning United’s ad campaign, called Not on three other nearby seats for the she asked the woman in the aisle dividend payment.................................. B2
She was then disconnected. count, often their most expensive the bedsheets. the best way to get a response
Ms. Roach, who lives in St. Pe- line item, restaurant managers say. questions on the phone.’ When Mr. Ellis tried calling the from more than 10,000 companies.
tersburg, Fla., says she, her father In the U.S., 67% of reservation book- front desk, he says he was redirected The site receives three million
and brother all tried to solve the ings are digital, up from 56% in to a general call-services center. visits a month from frustrated con-
problem via chat before a represen- 2019, according to reservation plat- Meanwhile, the line at reception of- sumers, a number that has steadily
tative resolved the issue on Face- form SevenRooms. took its public phone number off its ten snaked around the hotel lobby. risen as companies make their con-
book Messenger. Ms. Roach says Taste of Texas in Houston is only website because owners were de- “It’s just shouting into the void,” tact info more difficult to find, Mr.
the experience was so frustrating taking online reservations in De- tailing their pets’ medical issues to he says. Goldkamp says.
that her family won’t fly Frontier cember, when co-owner Edd Hen- general customer support represen- A Caesars spokeswoman says “It’s not a good time for compa-
again soon. dee says call volume increases dra- tatives, Chief Executive Marc Ati- Mr. Ellis called the front desk nies to be doing that, because users
Frontier says the shift to digital matically. yeh says. “They were kind of con- shortly after he texted Ivy, and a are very particular about where
service ensures customers get the The pandemic nearly wiped out fused about how to get in touch service ticket was issued for the they are spending their money right
information they need as efficiently the business, Mr. Hendee says, and with a vet,” Mr. Atiyeh says. hot water outage, which took time now,” he says. “It’s a bad time to be
as possible. The airline says it had inflation continues to pose a threat. Now, a chat assistant on the to resolve. She said it is Caesars’ making enemies.”
A16 | Thursday, December 8, 2022 NY THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
PERSONAL JOURNAL.
W
is Lensa, an AI-enhanced Just remember, AI never
ho knew artifi- photo-editing app for behaves exactly as you’d ex-
cial intelligence iPhone and Android that’s pect. Here’s what you need
could be so en- everybody’s new favorite to know before exploring
tertaining? portrait painter. It’s the ChatGPT and Lensa.
Case in reason so many people in
point is ChatGPT, a free AI their social-media and dat- Chatting with ChatGPT
chatbot that has probably ing-profile pictures sud- ChatGPT is free to use—just
been all over your social denly look like anime action create an OpenAI account.
feeds lately. In need of heroes, magical fairy prin- Type a query into the inter-
homework help? “Who was cesses or the haunted sub- face, and a chatbot generates
George Washington Carver?” jects of oil paintings. It responses within seconds.
produces an answer worthy uses technology from DALL- In true conversational
of Wikipedia. But it can get E 2’s competitor, the image- form, you can follow up
creative, too: “Write a movie generating startup Stability with questions in context,
script of a taco fighting a AI. It turns uploaded head- and it will follow along. It
hot dog on the beach” gen- shots into beautiful, at can admit its mistakes, re-
erates a thrilling page of di- times trippy, avatars. fuse to answer inappropri-
alogue, humor and action ate questions and provide
worthy of YouTube, if not responses with more per-
quite Netflix: sonality than a standard
‘It’s almost like a search engine.
Taco: “So you think you brainstorming tool In response to “Who am
can take me, hot dog? I?” ChatGPT replied, “I can-
You’re nothing but a pro-
to get yourself not answer your question
cessed meat product with no thinking differently.’ about who you are. Only
flavor.” you can know and define
Hot Dog: “You may be yourself.”
made of delicious, savory in- It can generate essays,
gredients, taco, but I have These software products stories, song lyrics and
the advantage of being able represent more than cut- scripts; solve math problems;
to be eaten with one hand.” ting-edge AI—they make and make detailed recom-
that AI easy for non-com- mendations. Because it
This isn’t like searching puter-geeks to use in their comes up with answers
Google. If you don’t like the daily lives. Lensa has based on its training and not
results, you can ask again, climbed to the top of Ap- by searching the web, it’s un-
and you’re likely to get a ple’s App Store charts, be- aware of anything after 2021.
different response. coming the No. 1 free-to- It won’t tell you about the
That’s because ChatGPT download app in the U.S. on latest release from a certain
isn’t looking anything up. Dec. 2. ChatGPT, released pop superstar, for instance. “I
It’s an AI trained by a mas- for web browsers on Nov. don’t have any personal
sive trove of data research- 30, passed one million users knowledge about Taylor
ers gathered from the inter- on Monday, according to Swift or her albums,” Chat-
net and other sources OpenAI Chief Executive Sam GPT admits.
LENSA
through 2021. What it re- Altman. “It’s almost like a brain-
plies is its best approxima- “Six months from now, storming tool to get yourself
tion of the answer based on you’re going to see amazing thinking differently,” said
its vast—yet limited— things that you haven’t seen Sarah Hoffman, vice presi- search presentation, but Reporter Dalvin Brown to address user feedback. It
knowledge. It’s from the today,” says Oren Etzioni, dent of AI and machine thought some of ChatGPT’s uploaded his photos to Lensa also attaches disclaimers to
same company that devel- founding chief executive of learning research at Fidelity responses seemed dated. “It and these were some of the responses that might be lim-
oped the mind-boggling the Allen Institute for AI, a Investments. She used the could’ve been written five AI-generated results. ited by its dated training
DALL-E 2 art AI engine and nonprofit organization dedi- service to write a sample re- years ago.” material.
For programmers, Chat- As Lensa went viral, peo-
GPT has already begun of- tos reimagined in various ple posted concerns about
fering assistance, by surfac- artistic styles. how their photos and im-
ing hard-to-find coding The app, from Prisma ages were being used and
solutions. Labs, uses Stability AI’s Sta- stored. Other viral apps in
When Javi Ramirez, a 29- ble Diffusion text-to-image the past have raised similar
year-old software developer model. Users upload 10 to concerns. After the software
in Portugal, tossed a “com- 20 source photos, and the generates the avatars,
plex coding problem” at the app uses them to create en- Prisma Labs deletes the up-
AI, his expectations were low. tirely new images. You can loaded photos within 24
“It saved me,” Mr. get 50 images for $3.99 if hours, says Andrey Usoltsev,
Ramirez said. “One hour of you sign up for the free the company’s co-founder
googling was solved with trial of Lensa’s subscription and chief executive.
just five minutes of Chat- photo-editing service. Non- “Users’ images are being
GPT.” But it hasn’t worked subscribers can get 50 im- leveraged solely for the pur-
for everyone. The coding ages for $7.99. pose of creating their very
website Stack Overflow tem- The Lensa app has been own avatars,” he says.
porarily banned answers out since 2018. It’s primarily Some users have said
created by ChatGPT because for editing photos and add- Lensa has created images
many of the answers were ing effects and animation. that overemphasize certain
incorrect. parts of a woman’s body or
ChatGPT’s maker is at AI’s limitations alter the eye colors and
the center of the debate While these tools feel new, shapes of their faces to re-
over AI hype vs. AI reality. experts say they’ll likely be- move racially or ethnically
OpenAI began in 2015 as come as commonplace as identifiable features.
a nonprofit with backers in- doing a Google search or “It is true that, occasion-
cluding Elon Musk. It taking a selfie. Along with ally, AI can produce ‘reveal-
formed a for-profit company their popularity come con- ing’ or sexualized pictures.
in 2019 and got a $1 billion cerns over privacy, misinfor- This tendency is observed
investment from Microsoft mation and problematic lack across all gender catego-
Corp., which The Wall Street of context. ries, although in different
Journal reported in October Some users on social me- ways,” said Mr. Usoltsev.
was in talks to invest more. dia said ChatGPT produced “Stability AI, the creators
While developing the offensive comments when of the model, trained it on
technologies that underpin prompted. It can also spit a sizable set of unfiltered
tools such as DALL-E 2 and out wrong answers that ap- data from across the inter-
ChatGPT, the group has pear correct to untrained net. Neither us nor Stability
sought a commercially via- eyes. When asked, “How can AI could consciously
ble application. Asked if you tell if you’re wrong?” apply any representation
ChatGPT will remain free, the bot replied: biases.”
Mr. Altman tweeted, “we “I can provide accurate “Tools like these tend to
will have to monetize it and helpful information be flashy,” says Jennifer
somehow at some point; based on the data I have King, privacy and data policy
the compute costs are eye- been trained on, but I am fellow at the Stanford Insti-
watering.” not able to determine my tute for Human-Centered Ar-
own accuracy or evaluate tificial Intelligence. “Some-
Lensa and the likes my own responses.” times, it’s correct enough,
In November, Lensa rocked An OpenAI spokeswoman but without the right guard-
social media with its Magic said its team of researchers rails in place, it opens you
Avatars, user-uploaded pho- plans to update the software up to a lot of issues.”
A ChatGPT screenshot shows examples of questions to frame and responses you might see.
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Thursday, December 8, 2022 | A17
ARTS IN REVIEW
DANCE REVIEW
H
Mejia bolted forthrightly through
New York often turning jumps, repeatedly do-
err Drosselmeier—the ing so through his hoop prop while
elderly, eye-patched fig- leading eight female student danc-
ure in a frock coat who ers brandishing hoops of their own.
plays a central part in For the ballet’s show-stopping,
E.T.A. Hoffmann’s 1816 formal pas de deux, which Tchai-
narrative that under- kovsky composed after being
pins Tchaikovsky’s 1892 score for tasked to arrange “an adagio in-
“The Nutcracker”—is a clockmaker tended to create a colossal impres-
by trade. In George Balanchine’s sion,” NYCB men and women have
popular two-act staging, since 1954, a grand showcase opportunity. Bal-
for New York City Ballet, Dross- anchine’s choreography here is
elmeier intrigues all the children of filled with thrilling moves and stir-
the story, which tells the tale of a ring climaxes.
party on Christmas Eve and the While the two casts that I
magical events that take place that caught each hit high points, nei-
night and beyond. The annual run ther negotiated the choreographic
of NYCB’s “Nutcracker” was sus- challenges with unerring authority.
pended altogether in 2020; last Andrew Veyette partnered a some-
year, because of Covid-19 protocols, times staid Sterling Hyltin with
the children were played by student palpable daring, even as his solo
dancers 12 to 16 years old. Now, at dancing lacked finesse. As Sugar-
long last, the cast’s boys and girls plum to Adrian Danchig-Waring’s
from NYCB’s affiliate academy, the sometimes unevenly powered Cav-
School of American Ballet, again alier, Unity Phelan proved expan-
range in age from 8 to 13. As these sive at times and somewhat tenta-
eager youngsters animate the bal- tive at others.
let’s opening scene, they bring to then into a little prince. Each into the wings to reveal him in over the stage to open the second Further casts for the leading
mind the jewel-like workings in- leaves individually affecting im- princely dress. act’s “Land of Sweets.” This is the dancers continue during the run.
volved in Drosselmeier’s craft. pressions this season. As Marie, Zofia Mendez and Car- act—with its familiar series of di- Whatever outcomes the company
Maybe it was the absence of the Standouts include 8-year-old oline O’Hagan, both 10, distinctly vertissements leading to the work’s dancers might deliver, the poi-
School of American Ballet’s youn- Hannon Hatchett as Fritz: Don’t embody their character’s delicately crescendo in the form of a climactic gnantly effective performing of the
ger students from the “Nutcracker” miss his playing punctilious con- strong-headed personality with pas de deux for the Sugarplum alternating casts of SAB students,
mix last year that makes the cur- ductor for his fellow tykes with dancerly locomotion and poise. Fairy and her Cavalier, all domi- 126 all told—prepared under the
rent casts feel especially engaging their toy instruments before annoy- Each displays notable feistiness nated by NYCB’s dancers—that nu- watchful tutelage of Dena Abergel
and effective. The most prominent ing the party’s girls. Likewise, 11- against the marauding mice, who merous balletgoers see as the main as children’s repertory director and
child characters are Marie, the year-old Titus Landegger, as inno- are presented as adult-size in Bal- reason for going to “The Nut- her associate, Arch Higgins—prom-
tale’s heroine; Fritz, her naughty cent and elegant a young prince as anchine’s scheme to help dramatize cracker.” This focus on NYCB ises golden rewards.
little brother; and Drosselmeier’s might be imagined: Note his spon- both Marie’s diminutive size and women and men prompts many, by
mysterious nephew, who trans- taneous expression of wonder once unshakable fortitude. default, to dismiss the first act, Mr. Greskovic writes about dance
forms first into a nutcracker and his breakaway nutcracker suit flies Twelve little-girl angels hover with its predominant, partying chil- for the Journal.
EXHIBITION REVIEW the 19th century and the first quar- grounds relate to each other,” said with voters who have some serious dishes just like home,” courtesy of
ter of the 20th century, some three Ms. Mart as she led reporters on a eating to do. the kosher salami sent by his
Rye Met
their palates. “I’ll Have What She’s we learn more about people we Abe Lebewohl, the founder of 2nd created by a clever deli man.
Having” is, perforce, a story of im- might not otherwise encounter, and Avenue Deli in Manhattan, and Fortunately, “I’ll Have What
migration and adaptation—about it allows us to build mutual respect Rena Drexler, who with her hus- She’s Having” bears no resem-
the shift from selling pickles out of and appreciation.” band, Harry, established the now- blance whatsoever to the over-
tip: The Pastrami Queen deli is a these restaurants in pop culture— scent deli business, the role of of the exhibit are costumes from
mere half-mile walk away; mean- video clips include the now legend- delis in advertising campaigns— “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,” a sec- “I’ll Have What She’s Having”:
while visitors to the Historical So- ary scene from “When Harry Met think: “You don’t have to be Jewish tion of the neon sign from the Fa- The Jewish Deli
ciety can create their own (virtual) Sally” that gave the exhibit its ti- to love Levy’s real Jewish Rye”— mous Dairy Restaurant on the Up- New-York Historical Society, through
sandwich courtesy of a touch tle—and in the broader culture. and in political campaigns. Photos per West Side, and a letter from a April 2, 2023
screen and an avatar of sorts: Max “The exhibit allowed us to explore capture Nelson Rockefeller, Jerry soldier stationed in Italy during
the deli man. themes that are key to understand- Brown, John Lindsay and Barack World War II, exclaiming to his fian- Ms. Kaufman writes on culture and
Between the last two decades of ing how people of different back- Obama, eager to press the flesh cée that he “had some tasty Jewish the arts for the Journal.
A18 | Thursday, December 8, 2022 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
SPORTS
Judge, Yankees Reach $360 Million Deal
The MVP slugger will return to New York after agreeing to a nine-year contract with the team he has spent his entire career
BY LINDSEY ADLER his late father, George. Cashman
A
has been at the helm through it
merican League MVP all—from the dynasty years until
Aaron Judge has now, but his front office has
agreed to a new nine- changed and evolved beneath him
year, $360 million con- significantly in the last decade.
tract with the New The game has changed, and not
York Yankees, who persuaded their to the Yankees’ advantage: The
homegrown star not to defect in luxury tax system is built to pun-
free agency—and increased the ish the highest-revenue clubs in
pressure on themselves to get back the name of competitive balance—
to the World Series for the first meaning that an organization like
time since 2009. the Yankees is punished for spend-
Judge’s agreement with New ing on payroll at a scale that is
York was pending a physical as of proportionate to their earnings.
Wednesday afternoon, but his All The sentiment that the Yankees
Rise Foundation announced on bought their way to their champi-
Twitter that he would be returning onships from 1996 to 2009 is fair
to the Yankees. and unfair: They produced an all-
Judge’s return to New York, time core of homegrown players,
first reported by MLB Network then paid to both fill out the ros-
early Wednesday, comes after a ter around them and retain the
season when he hit 62 home runs players who had spent their ca-
to break the American League re- reers in pinstripes.
cord, is an expensive bid to cash in Now, the best teams in the
on a window of contention for the American League are built through
Yankees that opened in 2017. player development. The Houston
That’s when Judge had a stellar Astros seem to have an endless
rookie season that won him the supply of club-controlled players
American League Rookie of the who make significant contribu-
Year award and saw him finish tions at the major-league level,
second place in MVP voting. and the organization has signed
Judge, who was 25 years old in many of them to extensions. The
his rookie season, reached free Tampa Bay Rays also operate a
agency for the first time in his ca- player development conveyor belt,
reer this offseason. He played at but they trade their players away
an MVP level in 2022 after turning Aaron Judge’s return to New York comes after a season when he hit 62 home runs to break the AL record. at the height of their value to
down an eight-year, $230 million maintain their prospect depth.
contract extension from the Yan- said or undone and that we can season is currently the third-high- to a contract that will expire after The Yankees have modernized a
kees at the start of the regular live with ourselves as we move est salary in baseball for 2023, be- his age-39 season. The expectation variety of their internal systems in
season. The right fielder elected to forward.” hind Max Scherzer and Justin Ver- would be that his production areas such as data, player develop-
take advantage of his best oppor- In the six seasons since Judge lander, who will make $43.3 would diminish on the backend of ment, performance science, and
tunity for leverage on the open made his debut, the Yankees often million apiece. The previous aver- the contract, leaving the Yankees biomechanics. They are working to
market, and turned in the best— spent the offseason pursuing the age annual value record for a posi- paying a significant amount of catch up to the advantages clubs
and now, most lucrative, walk-year biggest player available. They ac- tion player was held by the Angels’ money to Judge when his on-field like the Astros and Rays have had
season of all time. quired Giancarlo Stanton via trade Mike Trout, whose 12-year, $426.5 production is likely to wane. in player development and acquisi-
The Yankees, the team that with the Miami Marlins in 2017, af- million contract averages to $35.5 To an extent, the Yankees’ deci- tions, while still being in a posi-
drafted and developed Judge, beat ter he had just won the National million per season. sion to sign Judge to such a large tion to flex their financial might in
out his hometown San Francisco League MVP award. They signed In recent years, many players deal—especially with other mega- the offseason to supplement their
Giants to retain him for what is Gerrit Cole to a $324 million con- have strongly prioritized setting contracts still on their payroll led- modern approach.
likely the rest of his career. tract for nine years after the 2019 new benchmarks for average an- ger —harkens back to an earlier Judge was originally part of a
Club owner Hal Steinbrenner season. Each time, the team indi- nual value on their salaries. era in Yankeeland. homegrown group of players who
“spearheaded” the negotiations cated that it was go-time to reach Judge made his bid to enter this The broader reputation of the were supposed to make up a sig-
with Judge, general manager Brian the World Series again. derby with a stunning 2022 sea- Yankees seems preserved in amber, nificant portion of the Yankees’
Cashman said Wednesday morning The organization has made it to son, in which he hit 62 home runs an artifact representing the club’s roster, but nearly all of the team-
in San Diego. Earlier this year, three American League Champion- and posted a 1.111 OPS. He didn’t seemingly perennial World Series mates he matriculated through the
Cashman said he told Steinbrenner ship Series, two AL Division Series, just earn a mega-contract, he appearances in the mid 1990s and player development system have
that ownership would need to be and lost a shocking AL Wild-Card earned the opportunity to keep early 2000s. In the 13 years since flamed out or been traded. The
intimately involved in the efforts game to the Red Sox. But it hasn’t earning well into his late 30s. their last World Series victory, the Yankees have thus spent Judge’s
FRANK FRANKLIN II/ASSOCIATED PRESS
to retain Judge. returned to the World Series. Contracts like Judge’s have organization has become signifi- tenure augmenting their roster to
“We wanted to make sure that Now, they’ve retained Judge for largely gone by the wayside in this cantly more restrained, more mod- try to compete their way back to a
there was going to be no stone un- the duration of his 30s—the equiv- era of baseball, with the informa- ern, and less capable of reaching World Series.
turned, no effort that was missed alent of pressing play on that fa- tion clubs have now allowing them the game’s biggest stage. They didn’t reach that stage
in our discussions,” Cashman said. miliar tune: It’s go-time, again. to pay players based on projected The organization has both when Judge was playing under
“So that when Aaron Judge makes Judge’s contract secures him future value rather than just what changed and it hasn’t. Stein- club control. They had to return to
a final decision on what he wants the third-largest total contract in they’ve demonstrated in previous brenner has shown himself to be their roots—a team willing to pay
to do with his professional career baseball history, and the highest years. There is a certain impracti- willing to spend significant whatever it takes to get a player
as he moves forward, that there annual average salary for a posi- cality in signing a soon-to-be 31- amounts of money on club payroll, into pinstripes—to continue their
would be nothing that was left un- tion player. The $40 million per year-old, 6-foot-7 inch outfielder but not with the frivolousness of quest to win with him at the helm.
I
n the final minutes before France
BY ANDREW BEATON coach Didier Deschamps sends the
defending World Cup champions
Doha, Qatar onto the pitch against England on
WHEN JAPAN ENTERED HALF- Saturday, he will make one last run
TIME down 1-0 to Spain in the through the tactics with his 11-man
CARL RECINE/ACTION IMAGES/REUTERS
group stage of this World Cup, unit. His opposite number, Gareth
coach Hajime Moriyasu knew pre- Southgate, will be delivering the
cisely what to do: begin substitut- same speech to the Three Lions.
ing his players far earlier than soc- Five subs are now permitted. The point is to take the natural
cer orthodoxy would advise. chaos of soccer and make sense of
For Moriyasu, it was a formula vantage of this opportunity. the 22 moving parts on the field.
that worked. After substitutes had At the first World Cup where a This is the rare instance when Des-
scored both goals in Japan’s come- manager is allowed to make five champs and Southgate may want to
back against Germany, they lifted changes, that opportunity is super- boil it all down to two of those.
the Samurai Blue over another Eu- sized. But the new rules here come Unlike football or basketball,
ropean giant, this time Spain. Japan with two catches. Coaches can soccer is tough to boil down to in- Manchester City’s Kyle Walker, left, defends PSG’s Kylian Mbappé.
pulled off two epic comeback wins make those five subs at just three dividual matchups—unless that
by substituting early and often. In different moments—to prevent matchup involves France’s Kylian for France at this World Cup. to find himself left one-on-one
both of those games, Moriyasu games from slowing down too Mbappé. He is the most dangerous “I play in the Premier League against Mbappé. A lot.
made his first changes at the half. much, they can’t swap players one- player in soccer right now, and how week-in, week-out and I play “I’m not going to roll out a red
And even though Japan bowed by-one at five different points in England chooses to deal with him is against top-class wingers, but he’s carpet for him and tell him to go
out of this World Cup in the Round the game. There’s also a caveat to likely to decide which nation ad- easily the best player in the world,” score,” Walker said on Wednesday.
of 16, the team that comes out on that: Because it doesn’t waste any vances to the World Cup semifinals. Cash said. “Look at his finishing. “I think there are a handful of
top among the final eight remaining additional time, making a change at How England chooses to deal People won’t just say he’s quick— players on the planet that you need
countries might just be the one that halftime doesn’t count as one of with him is also likely to involve he’s got everything.” to consider special attention to,”
follow’s Moriyasu’s lead. That’s be- those three moments. Kyle Walker. But Walker’s game is also about Southgate’s assistant coach Steve
cause this is the World Cup with A Wall Street Journal analysis “He’s England’s best right-back,” more than pure speed. He has de- Holland told reporters here. “You’d
more subbing than ever. shows that the new rules have said Poland right-back Matty Cash, veloped into a specialist fullback have to put Mbappé in that kind of
One of the lingering changes prompted teams to make substitu- who faced Mbappé in the round- who excels at one-on-one duels and category.”
from the pandemic that’s here to tions earlier—but only slightly. En- of-16 and gave up two goals to him. snuffing out danger One place to look for a test case
stay, besides restaurants offering tering the quarterfinals in 2018, the “If anyone’s going to stop him, I Unlike almost every other full- might be Manchester City. Two sea-
to-go cocktails, is increased substi- median time for a team to put in its think Kyle Walker will be the man back at the tournament, Walker sons ago, when City faced PSG in
tuting in soccer. Three changes per first sub was in the 63rd minute. to stop him.” rarely ventures beyond the halfway the semifinals of the Champions
game was the industry standard un- This year, that’s down a smidge to The area where Mbappé is at his line. What makes him crucial for League, manager Pep Guardiola also
til leagues attempted to resume the 59th minute. Even more most dangerous is the same one England isn’t what he contributes felt that Walker was the antidote to
play in the early days of Covid, broadly, though, a look at teams’ that Walker has patrolled for Eng- going forward but how he holds Mbappé.
when it jumped to five. The English substitution patterns shows how land at the past two major tourna- things together at the back. In the first leg in Paris, City kept
Premier League made it permanent they’re failing to fully capitalize on ments. Walker’s pace and positional When England has the ball, he a high defensive line and double
this season. This is now the first what’s newly available to them. versatility also makes him essential tucks in alongside the center covered Mbappé, using Walker and
World Cup where managers are For one, countries are rarely ex- to the whole way England’s defense backs—essentially transforming the a midfield player to crowd him out.
permitted five changes. The result ploiting the halftime loophole. functions. If he struggles, England team’s four-man defensive line into Mbappé finished the game with no
is that teams are subbing more. But Through the round of 16, teams will have less of a chance than a a back three. That allows left back shots, and made just 19 passes and
they are being too conservative. have used at least one halftime sub- pint of warm ale in a Champagne Luke Shaw to push forward into 29 touches—the lowest of any
Recent years have produced a stitute in only 29% of their games. tasting contest. midfield, giving England more op- player on the pitch. Mbappé missed
fair bit of research that has ex- Teams are also just generally not That’s because Mbappé has more tions in attack. But when those at- the second leg through injury.
plained why teams should replace using all the newfound substituting than one way to punish teams. tacks break down, it’s Walker’s job The following season, the two
their players more aggressively. available to them. At this point in Though it all starts with speed— to use his speed to clear up any clubs met again in the Champions
Trailing teams that usher in fresh 2018, subs were maxed out almost Mbappé was clocked running at 22 danger if the opposing team League group stage. This time,
legs earlier are likelier to come every game, with managers leaving miles per hour against Poland—he launches a counter. Mbappé scored, but City won 2-1.
back. More advanced analyses have the third sub unused only 8.9% of combines it with an ability to cut Which is exactly when Mbappé is Those games offered a lesson for
even shown that subs cover more the time. This World Cup, that rate onto either foot and a short backlift at his most dangerous. Mbappé Deschamps, too, even if anyone
ELSA/GETTY IMAGES
distance on the pitch, take more has skyrocketed. The fifth sub that allows him to uncork powerful rarely drops back on defense, who has watched this World Cup
shots and rate better defensively. hasn’t been used in 35.4% of games. shots in the blink of an eye. It’s no choosing instead to station himself already knows it. “France needs
But based on when teams actu- Even more staggeringly, coaches coincidence that Mbappé already up the field on the left side, waiting Kylian to be great,” Deschamps
ally send their players on and off, decide to leave two substitutes un- has 12 goals in 14 games for Paris for a chance on the break. said. “And this will always be the
coaches tend not to fully take ad- used 10.6% of the time. Saint-Germain this season and five So on Saturday, Walker is likely case.”
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Thursday, December 8, 2022 | A19
OPINION
Putin Heists a Nation’s Identity BOOKSHELF | By Sam Kean
A bad habit in
our confused
times is to
through what Ukraine has
endured with Russia’s un-
provoked invasion, but
will not back down.” One
hopes that includes the
alliance’s member living
Fraught
communicate
in words and
phrases
one fully un-
no
unlike many wars that
lose sight of why they’re
being waged, Ukraine’s is
a case study in the mean-
in seeming security across
the Atlantic.
Nationalistic senti-
ments have become rife in
Forensics
WONDER
LAND derstands.
Maybe that’s
ing and value of national
identity.
the U.S., most often on
the right. They reflect a
The Forever Witness
By Daniel
intentional. For those of us looking belief or fear that the tra- By Edward Humes
Henninger
Merriam- on from afar, the war ditional underpinnings of (Dutton, 372 pages, $28)
SPUTNIK/VIA REUTERS
I
Webster, the there has become a daily American identity and
dictionary publisher, chose as display of indiscriminate economic security are be- n November 1987, a scavenger searching for bottles found
its 2022 word of the year “gas- Russian bombing, leveling ing undermined—by an the body of a half-naked woman near a rural road north
lighting,” which has something infrastructure, apartment influx of non-English- of Seattle. Days later, beneath a bridge 60 miles away, a
to do with “misinformation,” buildings and hospitals. speaking immigrants, hunter found a dead man, bludgeoned with rocks and as-
which itself is said to be differ- The result is a seeming in- globalization, radical rein- phyxiated by a pack of cigarettes shoved down his throat.
ent from “disinformation.” finity of rubble. We’ve terpretations of U.S. his- Police identified the bodies as Tanya Van Cuylenborg, 18, and
I think the dictionary peo- learned that this is how Russia Ukrainian artists. Rooms of ar- tory and certainly the new vo- her boyfriend Jay Cook, 20.
ple got it wrong. The real wages war—in Ukraine, Chech- tifacts that existed in cabularies of personal identity. A week earlier, the couple had driven down from Canada
word of the year is “identity.” nya, northern Syria or any fu- Ukraine’s territory before the This is an important and on an errand and vanished. The police had zero witnesses
In the U.S., personal-iden- ture theater. Russian empire were emptied. worthy discussion that and little physical evidence they could tie to a suspect. They
tity debates pitch us into the As always, urban bombing’s From day one of this war, doesn’t deserve dismissal as did have one clue: semen on Tanya’s pants, which yielded a
briar patch of gender self-iden- goal is to break the opposi- the purpose of Vladimir Putin, little more than right-wing DNA sequence. By itself, however, that sequence meant little:
tifiers and pronouns with no tion’s will to resist, but it is and of the ideologues who sur- “MAGA.” But the danger in a Because the killer’s DNA didn’t appear in any crime databases,
agreed-upon meaning. But the about more than that in round him, has been to elimi- nationalistic U.S. drift, espe- the police couldn’t match it to anyone. The case quickly went
heat goes even higher in argu- Ukraine, which was made clear nate Ukraine’s national iden- cially in Congress, is that it cold, leaving not only local law enforcement but the FBI, the
ments over national identity. in a recent Journal article tity. Erase a nation’s art, and could turn quickly into insu- Mounties and Interpol all stumped.
about Russia’s systematic loot- its past evaporates. larity, the impulse to cut off That’s the backdrop to Edward Humes’s thought-provoking
ing of the Kherson Art Mu- The Ukrainians are said to America from a troublesome true-crime thriller, “The Forever Witness,” which details how
Americans debating seum before Ukraine’s military be putting much of their na- world that just isn’t worth our the police finally nabbed the alleged killer. More important,
recaptured the city. tional heritage in hiding or attention. the book explores why the tool that broke the case open,
who we are should What happened at the temporarily moving it outside The short version of navel- genetic genealogy, has proven so controversial in detective
look to Ukraine for Kherson museum has little re- the country, an activity remi- gazing nationalism is that we work—and why the rest of us should (maybe) fear it as well.
semblance to the Russian in- niscent of what countries did have “needs at home,” but Mr. Humes’s account of the killings and their aftermath is
what’s really at risk. fantry’s crude, random looting during World War II to avoid what country doesn’t? Last achingly sad; while the narrative does wander sometimes,
of stores and homes. It is similar heists of national iden- May, 11 Senate Republicans all the characters are drawn compellingly, with vivid details.
more like the Taliban’s de- tity by the Nazis. voted against a Ukraine aid Mr. Humes even pulls off a
Before the midterm elec- struction in 2001 of Afghani- It may well be that in our bill, and in October, the House difficult balancing act with the
tions, President Joe Biden stan’s huge sixth-century Bam- time historical memory has Progressive Caucus sent Mr. suspect who emerges, truck
criticized Republicans for go- iyan Buddhas, an act regarded been reduced to last week’s In- Biden a letter—quickly with- driver William Talbott, making
ing “MAGA,” a Trumpian as barbarism. stagram posts, or such embar- drawn—urging him to negoti- you sympathize at one point
phrase that stands for “Make The looting of the Kherson rassments as Kanye West’s re- ate a settlement directly with (when he loses a beloved grand-
America great again.” MAGA museum had to have been cent remarks on Hitler. But Mr. Putin. pa) and cringe the next (when he
and the “1619 Project” have planned in detail by Russian surely support for Ukraine Ukraine is a sovereign na- gropes his sister). Talbott was
become fighting words in a art specialists in Moscow, in- from the war’s earliest days by tion with a population, estranged from his family during
civil war over national iden- tellectuals who knew exactly formerly placid Europe is ex- though dwindling, of nearly the 1987 killings, but reconnected
tity that is dissolving a com- what was in the museum and plainable in great part to its 44 million. The terms of the afterward and became, for a
mon understanding of what what the art represented to understanding that a success- struggle to preserve a na- while at least, a devoted brother
America represents. With Ukrainians. ful Putin destruction of tion’s national character and uncle. “The timing of this sea
Brexit, the Brits spent five As described by the Jour- Ukraine’s national identity could not be clearer. If Mr. change,” Mr. Humes notes, “would
years fighting over who they nal’s Ian Lovett, the removal would set an ominous prece- Putin outlasts the free world be beyond chilling. For it would
are. of art began Nov. 1 under the dent. Jens Stoltenberg, secre- to prove it’s possible to ab- mean brutally beating and murder-
National-identity debates direction of 10 civilians from tary general of the North At- sorb a nation’s identity, his ing Jay Cook, then raping and executing Tanya Van Cuylen-
are messy, but one country’s Russian museums. About lantic Treaty Organization, win will leave the rest of us borg, served as the prelude, if not the catalyst, for the best
ordeal makes the stakes crys- 10,000 of Kherson’s more than said last week the alliance standing on the downslope of times of William Earl Talbott II’s life.” (After an initial con-
tal clear. 13,000 pieces were taken would support Ukraine for “as what we say we represent. viction in 2019, Talbott’s case remains unsettled on appeal.)
No nation deserves to go away, notably all paintings by long as it takes” and that “we Write henninger@wsj.com However well told, though, the story probably wouldn’t
merit book-level treatment if not for how the police snared
Talbott. As originally conceived, DNA forensics required police
Georgia Runoff Warnings for Both Parties officers to match a specific genetic sequence from a piece of
evidence to a specific person in a database. If the search came
up empty, the case went cold. But genetic genealogy casts a
By Karl Rove endorsements helped nomi- GOP House candidates lost by found too extreme, unquali- wider net: Open public databases like GEDmatch, where
T
nate freakish candidates, lead- 8 and 12. fied or closely tied to Mr. people upload DNA for genealogical purposes, allow cold-case
he 2022 midterms ing GOP-leaning voters to split In North Carolina’s First Trump and so split their tick- detectives and genealogists to find people with merely similar
ended Tuesday when their tickets. This was clear in District, Mr. Trump endorsed ets. Imagine how different the DNA—relatives. Based on the percentage of DNA overlap, you
Sen. Raphael Warnock Senate races, where candi- Sandy Smith. She lost, in large House would be if it was di- can tell whether the person who pops up is the killer’s sibling
defeated Herschel Walker in dates Mr. Trump carried to part because she was accused vided 231-204 in favor of Re- or uncle or third cousin. From there, you use traditional
Georgia. Democrats should be primary victories with his by two previous husbands of publicans rather than 222-213. genealogy (obituaries, census records, birth certificates) to
pleased. They gained gover- “full and complete endorse- domestic abuse. In a major Tuesday’s loss in Georgia piece together a family tree and find the likely killer’s name.
norships and a Senate seat ment” ran behind more-tradi- county in the district, 1 of ev- for the GOP also came down This method of drawing a web around a killer first made
and kept their House losses to tional Republicans in the fall. ery 8 voters split their ticket, to ticket-splitting. On Nov. 8, headlines in the Golden State Killer case in April 2018. Strik-
single digits, despite expecta- In Ohio, 1 of 6 supporters voting Democrat for House Mr. Walker trailed Gov. Brian ingly, though, at the time the police portrayed the Golden
tions of a red wave. But there’s of Gov. Mike DeWine cast and Republican for Senate. Kemp by 203,130 votes, mean- State case as a “moonshot”—the product of months of pains-
a danger that Mr. Warnock’s their Senate ballots for Demo- Same in the 13th District, ing nearly 1 of every 10 Geor- taking work undertaken only out of desperation. Such an
runoff victory will strengthen crat Tim Ryan or left it blank. which rejected a young gians who supported the Re- effort might never be duplicated, the thinking went.
President Biden’s misinterpre- This is why Mr. Ryan’s Trum- Trumpster for the House but publican governor refused to As Mr. Humes notes, the Cook-Van Cuylenborg case ex-
tation of Democrats’ better- pian opponent, J.D. Vance, went Republican for Senate. cast their ballot for Mr. ploded that idea. In May 2018, the cold-case detective working
than-expected showing. That In Ohio, Republicans lost Walker. And the last month the murders in Washington state, Jim Scharf, chatted with a
could be a recipe for disaster two pickup opportunities didn’t change their minds. Mr. genetics company about finding the unknown killer’s relatives.
for his party come 2024. Republicans, don’t when about 21% to 38% of Walker lost the runoff by The CEO said they’d try to have a suspect in four days. Mr.
The president seems to be- Mr. DeWine’s voters in coun- nearly 100,000 votes. Scharf chuckled. After 31 years, he didn’t expect a quick fix.
lieve that the GOP’s awful keep getting seduced ties in the Ninth District This resurgence of GOP As it turned it, naming a suspect didn’t take four days. A woman
midterm performance was the by Trump. Democrats, voted Democrat for Congress. ticket-splitting provides sitting on her couch in sweatpants found Talbott in two hours.
result of improved Democratic In the 13th District, 19.1% of warnings for both parties.
messaging about his adminis- don’t get cocky. DeWine supporters in one Democrats shouldn’t take the
tration’s record. When asked major county split their midterm result as a vote of A breakthrough in a decades-old cold case
after the November election ticket, and 18.5% did in an- confidence in Mr. Biden. It raises questions about genetic genealogy and
what Mr. Biden would “do dif- won by less than 7 points, other. Both GOP candidates was a targeted rejection of
ferently to change people’s while Mr. DeWine won by al- had little but Mr. Trump’s en- Mr. Trump. If he doesn’t ad- present-day sleuthing capabilities.
opinion of the direction of the most 26. In Arizona, almost thusiastic endorsement to just to a Republican House,
country” as he prepares to 14% of supporters of the GOP’s recommend them. Republi- the president will have two
run again, the president re- victorious candidate for state can-leaning voters found that unpleasant years that sink That woman was CeCe Moore, a onetime TV-commercial
plied “nothing.” Americans treasurer left their ballot insufficient. his low approval rating still actress who became obsessed with genealogy after con-
are “just finding out what blank or voted for Democratic Between 7% and 13% of further. structing a family tree for her niece; she eventually quit
we’re doing,” he said. “The Sen. Mark Kelly, who defeated GOP gubernatorial nominee For Republicans, the return acting to pursue genealogy full time. Ms. Moore was not
more they know about what Trump-endorsed Blake Mas- Tudor Dixon’s supporters in of ticket splitting shows that involved with the Golden State case, but more than anyone
we’re doing, the more support ters by 4.9 points. Michigan’s Third District many of the voters they need else she realized the potential power of genetic genealogy
there is.” Ticket-splitting also cost counties turned thumbs down see Mr. Trump’s endorsement not only for identifying criminals but for identifying name-
Since then, Mr. Biden has the GOP House seats as Re- on John Gibbs, Mr. Trump’s as a warning, not an induce- less victims. After fingering Talbott, Ms. Moore solved four
signaled full speed ahead for publicans and GOP-leaning in- handpicked candidate. Trump ment. A Republican Party led more cold cases in five weeks, cases police had spent 126
his re-election campaign and dependents rejected Trump- favorites in Alaska and in by Donald Trump will lose and collective years working. By September 2021, she’d identi-
demanded a makeover of the endorsed candidates. More Washington state’s Third Dis- lose and lose. fied 175 criminal suspects and John and Jane Does.
primary calendar to smooth than 1 in 5 voters for New trict who stressed their ties to These were staggering results, which helped dozens of
his renomination and discour- Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu the former president also lost, Mr. Rove helped organize victims’ families heal. So how did the genetic-genealogy com-
age any Democratic opposition. refused to support Trump- running behind their state- the political-action committee munity react to Ms. Moore’s sleuthing? Many were outraged.
But in reality, Democrats’ backed Republicans in the wide tickets. American Crossroads and is The protests sprang from a commitment to absolute
relative victory in the mid- state’s two congressional dis- In total, the GOP threw author of “The Triumph of privacy. It’s a knotty problem: Ms. Moore and the police
terms came courtesy of Don- tricts. Mr. Sununu won by away at least nine House seats William McKinley” (Simon & conducted the genealogy searches without warrants or court
ald Trump, whose high-profile more than 15 points, while the running nominees voters Schuster, 2015). orders. In short, they were trawling through people’s DNA—
perhaps the single most private thing about them—without
permission, using the DNA in ways the people it came from
My Free-Range Parents Kept Me Healthy hadn’t consented to. That’s discomfiting—especially because
such genetic information can also expose affairs, secret
adoptions, and other dark secrets. This is all the more fraught
By Mike Kerrigan Rectangular with an incongru- sick. This occasionally inspired minds, the universe of child- because the police officers using the information often have
M
ously jaunty handle, it looked me instead to lie down, ice up hood maladies consisted solely no scientific training and have easily jumped to wrong con-
y mom and dad were like a cross between a steel- or simply shake it off. And so of headaches, charley horses, clusions in some cases.
free-range parents be- worker’s lunch pail and a nu- the box delivered its first pulled hamstrings and spiri- Then again, opposing genetic detective work means, in
fore that was a thing. clear scientist’s briefcase. Other course of medicine without tual despondency. effect, putting up hurdles to solving violent crimes—and not
This occurred to me during the than dings and dents, the only ever being opened. Funny enough, I grew up be- only in cold cases. Mr. Humes details the story of a man who
past year as I watched my chil- marking on each egg-white But sometimes—for in- lieving these were the only bad raped a 79-year-old Utah woman in 2018. Police feared he’d
dren receive the best-in-class stance, after getting my bell things that could befall me. It strike again and begged Ms. Moore to find him. The case proved
medical care for various inju- rung by the metal rim in a made for a carefree childhood, tougher to crack than Talbott’s: Ms. Moore spent three 18-hour
ries, including a fractured an- Despite a few bruises, game of trampoline basketball one in which headaches, thigh days on her laptop. But she hunted him down and got the guy
kle for Jack, 11, and a torn ACL I lived worry-free (an idea as bad as it sounds)— bruises and tweaked muscles off the street. In cases like this, should absolute genetic privacy,
for Finn, 13. contemplating the box wasn’t passed quickly and God was al- even for millions of people, outweigh clear and present danger?
Would my parents have thanks to ‘the box.’ enough. It had to be opened. In ways just a conversation away. Asking whether you favor using genetic genealogy in
availed themselves of the mir- these instances, it delivered its Once I’d left for college, I re- police work is like asking if you favor getting older. It’s hap-
acles of modern medicine had second and final, albeit lim- alized I might need medical at- pening no matter what; it’s more a matter of dealing with it.
I needed them in my 1980s ad- broadside was a red cross with ited, dose of healing. tention beyond aspirin, analge- “The Forever Witness” doesn’t provide definitive answers,
olescence? Of course. But the arms of equal length. It sig- That’s because the box con- sic cream and bandaging. But or even try to. As Mr. Humes notes, “the future is promising,
first step of treatment for ail- naled both protection under tained only four things: aspi- by then the box, 100 miles away, frightening, and murky.” But the book raises urgent questions
ments south of bone-sticking- the 1949 Geneva Conventions rin, a tube of Ben-Gay, a beige had done its job. And I still pray of balancing public and private good that we’ll likely be dealing
out was always a visit to “the and memento mori to a ram- ACE bandage and a rosary. the rosary. Perhaps my parents with as long as the title implies.
box.” bunctious teenage boy. Why my parents stocked and were on to something.
The box was a vintage metal So foreboding was it that on replenished only these items, I Mr. Kean is the author, most recently, of “The Icepick
first-aid kit stored under the approach, I sometimes ques- will never know for sure. I Mr. Kerrigan is an attorney Surgeon: Murder, Fraud, Sabotage, Piracy, and Other
sink in the guest bathroom. tioned whether I really was have to conclude that in their in Charlotte, N.C. Dastardly Deeds Perpetrated in the Name of Science.”
A20 | Thursday, December 8, 2022 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
OPINION
REVIEW & OUTLOOK LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
The Pentagon Goes to Climate War What Jimmy Lai’s Persecutors Fear the Most
T
he war in Ukraine is draining U.S. arms used in batteries and other green technologies Regarding William McGurn’s “The In “Jimmy Lai Faces Communist
stockpiles while geopolitical risks grow. that will be required to meet these “science- Innocence of Jimmy Lai” (Main Justice” (op-ed, Nov. 30) Paul A.
Street, Nov. 29): As a Christian, Gigot lauds the courage of Chinese
Yet the Biden Administration is worried based targets.”
Jimmy Lai may know the many bibli- dissident Jimmy Lai, who “risked ev-
about—you can’t make this The proposed rule would cal stories of false accusations and erything to speak democratic truth to
up—the climate impact of U.S. Biden’s new mandate on also apply to non-defense con- arrests. Some victims were subjected Communist power.” Mr. Gigot notes
weapons and wants to impose
costly green mandates on fed-
contractors adds green tractors, including pharma-
ceutical, shipping and tech
to a fiery furnace, a lions’ den, an ex- that his fellow U.S. journalists “have
ecutioner’s blade, a Roman cross. it easy” because they write under
eral contractors. politics to weapons. companies, though it curi- In modern times, Dietrich Bonhoef- protection of the First Amendment.
A little-noticed rule-mak- ously exempts universities, fer, Martin Luther King Jr. and Alex- In the same day’s paper, former
ing proposed by the Depart- nonprofit research institu- ander Solzhenitsyn followed in their Hogan Lovells lawyer Robin Keller
ment of Defense, NASA and the General Ser- tions and state and local governments. These footsteps. Solzhenitsyn urged the Rus- tells of her termination, after a 44-
vices Administration last month would require exemptions are a concession that the rule im- sian people to “never knowingly sup- year career, for expressing her opin-
federal contractors to disclose and reduce their poses costly burdens. port lies!” As Mr. McGurn observes, ion on the Dobbs decision (“No Dis-
Mr. Lai “is showing that a man can sent Allowed at Hogan Lovells,” op-
CO2 emissions as well as climate financial risks. But the very point of the rule is to force CO2
live as a free person, even in a Chinese ed). Other lawyers in the discussion
The rule would cover 5,766 contractors that emissions reductions across the private econ- prison, as long as he refuses to lie.” claimed they “lost their ability to
have received at least $7.5 million from the feds omy by leveraging $650 billion in annual fed- John Bunyan, author of “The Pil- breathe” after Ms. Keller mentioned
in the prior year. eral contracts. By covering Scope 3 emissions, grim’s Progress,” said, “I will stay in disproportionately high abortion
Smaller contractors would have to publicly the rule would sweep in tens of thousands of jail to the end of my days before I rates in the black community.
report their so-called Scope 1 and 2 emissions— non-federal contractors, including many small make a butchery of my conscience.” Finally, Peter Cozzens’s same-day
i.e., those they generate at their facilities and businesses. So, too, Mr. Lai, a devotee to truth review of “The Last Hill” (Bookshelf)
from the electricity and heating they use. Firms “Public procurement can shift markets, drive who may die in prison. Pray for him! describes the heroism of U.S. GIs
with larger contracts would also have to tabu- innovation, and be a catalyst for adoption of new Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s John Lee and fighting from Normandy to Germany.
late their upstream and downstream Scope 3 norms and global standards,” the rule-making his Beijing overlords join the reviled One wonders how many troops “lost
emissions, including those from customers, says. The climate conditions on contractors “will ranks of Potiphar, Herod and Pilate, as their ability to breathe” while fight-
well as all the modern power mongers ing Nazis for freedoms Jimmy Lai will
suppliers and products used in the field. give visibility to major annual sources of GHG who lived by lies and feared those never have, and which the partners at
For example, weapons manufacturers would emissions and climate risks throughout the Fed- who embrace freedom and truth. Hogan Lovells so casually disregard.
have to quantify and disclose the amount of eral supply chain and could, in turn, provide in- CHARLES EDEN LARS H. LIEBELER
CO2 generated from their own facilities; manu- sights into the entire U.S. economy.” Atlanta McLean, Va.
facturers that produce steel, computer chips In other words, this is a back door for the Ad-
and motors used in their weapons; propellants ministration to force businesses across the
and fuel; and even munition storage areas. It’s economy to report and reduce their CO2 emis-
unclear if CO2 emissions will influence procure- sions. It goes even further than the Securities
and Exchange Commission’s proposed rule re-
The Politics of Student Debt Before the Court
ment decisions.
Large contractors would also have to publish quiring publicly traded companies to report When politicians are unable to find Justice Sonia Sotomayor recently
solutions to difficult issues, they often questioned whether her august court
an annual climate disclosure and develop “sci- Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions.
take the easy way out (“Biden’s Loan could “survive the stench” of a politi-
ence-based targets” to reduce greenhouse gas The rule-making claims that federal contrac- Forgiveness Reckoning,” Review & cized bench. Justice Elena Kagan
emissions in alignment with the goals of the tors will benefit from climate mandates by “in- Outlook, Dec. 2). President Biden’s pitched in that the legitimacy of courts
2015 Paris agreement. That means contractors creasing senior management attention and loan-forgiveness program is one such are challenged when they becomes
will have to aim to zero out emissions and pos- funding for investing in GHG reduction proj- example. Decades of bad decision- “extensions of the political process.”
sibly require their contractors to do so. ects.” Great. As the U.S. military faces strained making, by government and students The expedited appeal in Biden v.
Will Lockheed Martin and Raytheon Tech- budgets and growing threats, climate will be a alike, and permissive rules for for- Nebraska will present a timely check
nologies have to redesign weapons systems and costly new priority in national defense. The profit educational institutions, re- on the progressive justices’ purity on
aircraft to be powered by lithium-ion batteries? People’s Liberation Army must be dumbfounded sulted in bloated tuitions and students the issue of political detachment.
China mines and processes the critical minerals by its good luck. attending schools for which they were What better setting than a plainly un-
unsuited. The resultant billions in constitutional assault by a feckless
debt both floated educational institu- president going old-school politician
‘Jim Crow 2.0’ Dies Again in Georgia tions and sunk the prospects of under-
educated and miseducated students.
to circumvent Congress and write a
$420 billion blank check forgiving
W
Rather than deal with the underly- contractual debt. All this, not only in
hatever happened to “Jim Crow vindicated on Election Day. ing issues, Mr. Biden waived the debt the lead up to midterm elections, but
2.0”? That was President Biden’s A 51-49 Senate will make life far easier for obligations by executive order. Any also in the wake of Mr. Biden’s and
slander against Georgia’s new voting Democrats over the next two years. No single lawyer worth his salt knew this ap- Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s unapologetic ac-
law, yet Democratic Sen. Ra- Democrat will be able to block proach was legally dubious. That only knowledgments that the gambit was
phael Warnock won a solid Herschel Walker’s loss a Biden nominee, and Demo- Republican-led states sued to over- a violation of the Constitution’s sepa-
turn the order reinforced the politics ration of powers.
runoff victory Tuesday and a
six-year term, with turnout
is Donald Trump’s final crats will now have a majority
on every committee. Republi- behind the move. So, here comes Biden v. Nebraska.
that was hardly muted. Don’t 2022 gift to the GOP. cans will have one more seat to Once the Supreme Court invali- If ever there was a case deserving of
dates the order, the usual hue and cry a unanimous opinion, this is it. We
expect any apologies. Mr. War- overcome as they try to retake about the court being a tool of con- wait to see if Justices Sotomayor and
nock is saying his win only the Senate. servatives will begin. Rather than try Kagan will put politics aside and
proves Georgians can beat voter suppression, Some Republicans are blaming GOP failures to craft a legally sufficient solution, chasten this president for his abroga-
so it’s an unfalsifiable claim. in mail and early voting, and as long as that’s the Mr. Biden will walk away from the is- tion of the delicate balance of feder-
Herschel Walker lost by nearly three points, law the GOP will have to play by those rules. sue blaming the court. alism’s separation of powers.
as of the latest data, after trailing on Nov. 8 by Early and mail voters in the Georgia runoff were JOSEPH P. PETITO JAMES ALTIERI
only one point. “There’s no excuses in life,” Mr. 52% registered Democrats, to 39% Republicans, Bethesda, Md. Indian River Shores, Fla.
Walker manfully conceded. “And I’m not going per a TargetSmart model cited by NBC News.
to make any excuses now, because we put up one That’s a huge deficit to make up on Election Day,
heck of a fight.” Good for him, especially since especially if it rains. Twitter Censorship and Intelligence Agencies
Donald Trump will probably have enough bad But mail-voting weaknesses didn’t stop Geor-
I applaud your position and factual we lose all credibility, not to mention
excuses to go around. gia Gov. Brian Kemp from winning re-election on accuracy in “The Twitter Censorship our self-respect. Simply stated: We
Mr. Trump helped to clear the GOP primary Nov. 8 by 7.5 percentage points. And organizing Files” (Review & Outlook, Dec. 5), but fail in our mission.
field for Mr. Walker. “Wouldn’t it be fantastic if failures shouldn’t obscure that the biggest les- I believe you aren’t forceful enough. The message the intelligence lead-
the legendary Herschel Walker ran for the son of the 2022 midterms is that Mr. Trump As a former career senior intelligence ership must send to all our analysts,
United States Senate in Georgia?” Mr. Trump picks losers. Republicans clearly could have re- official, I am disturbed by the abuses including those still in training, must
said in March 2021. “He would be unstoppable.” gained the Senate this year, but Mr. Trump’s en- conducted by those former intelli- be strong and unambiguous. This po-
Mr. Walker had no serious primary opposition, dorsed candidates lost in almost every swing gence officials. liticization of intelligence cannot be
but he was unvetted and inexperienced, and state. J.D. Vance won Ohio, but only with the help Those officials (the 51 named and tolerated. All 51 officials must have
Democrats dug up and unloaded truckloads of of $32 million in media advertising from a Super also the unnamed) egregiously vio- their access to classified information
unflattering personal history. Pac tied to Mr. McConnell. lated one of the critical tenets of in- revoked immediately.
telligence analysis as well as the MARK S. CHANDLER
Mr. Trump is now 0-3 in Georgia Senate races, The evidence is overwhelming over the last
standing Intelligence Community Di- Myrtle Beach, S.C.
counting the two 2021 runoffs that he sabo- three election cycles that Mr. Trump and the rective, which states intelligence shall
taged, plus Mr. Walker’s loss. The former Presi- crazy parts of Trumpism alienate suburban vot- be “independent of political consider- In his op-ed “Twitter’s Duty to
dent went ballistic this summer after Mitch ers and divide the GOP. Denying that is denying ation.” When we allow bias or politi- Protect Free Speech” (op-ed, Dec. 6),
McConnell said candidate quality matters, but reality and will guarantee more needless Repub- cization into our intelligence process, California Rep. Ro Khanna offers us
the GOP Senate leader was obviously right and lican losses in 2024. the opportunity to acknowledge his
wisdom for having complained pri-
Trump Is No Anti-Semite: vately to Twitter about its censor-
Xi Jinping’s Great Covid ‘Reopening’ Judge the Man by His Acts ship. But what about political cour-
age? I believe that Mr. Khanna’s
X
i Jinping bowed to the inevitable on nomically and socially unworkable. I am tired of reading the virtuous actions are reflective of an individual
condemnations of Donald Trump’s who dared not upset his party’s hier-
Wednesday as Beijing announced a sig- Meanwhile, China is left with the mecha- dinner with Kanye West and Nick Fu- archy even though he knew what it
nificant easing of its disastrous zero- nisms of political and social control the Com- entes (Letters, Dec. 5). Yes, it was a was doing was anathema to our con-
Covid policies. President Xi munist Party developed dur- mistake and I wish he hadn’t done it stitutional dictum.
will hope this calms public dis- A tactical retreat still ing the pandemic, such as the and he will pay the political price for JOHN ROZICH
content that had become the leaves public-health and use of smartphone apps to it. But for me, an actual Holocaust Manning, S.C.
greatest threat to Communist monitor and regulate every survivor, who remembers what it was
Party rule in three decades, but economic uncertainty. citizen’s movement. Don’t like living under Hitler, the acts of a
it may only partly solve the imagine for a minute the person are more important. By acts I Do You Trust the Pentagon?
country’s Covid problems. Communist Party will give up mean not only symbolic ones like a
Holman Jenkins, Jr. reports that
Communist Party officials won’t admit that those surveillance tools now that Beijing’s lunch with somebody, but consequen-
the Pentagon has lied to us for years
tial ones, like accepting your daugh-
zero-Covid was a mistake. But you can see the propagandists have declared the pandemic regarding UFOs (“The UFO Bubble
ter’s conversion to Judaism and thus
policy turn as its propaganda arms suddenly re- emergency over. having Jewish grandchildren. Or by
Goes Pop,” Business World, Dec. 3).
define the virus from a perilous threat to a man- As for that emergency, China is entering the Why should we believe it now? If the
being the president who not only
ageable health risk. On Monday the Xinhua great unknown. Omicron and its virus subvari- Pentagon told me it was raining, I’d
promised but delivered on moving
news agency said the “most difficult period had ants have proven more transmissible but less walk outside to check.
the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, and
passed” for the pandemic, citing higher vaccina- severe elsewhere in the world. But that was JEFFREY HURST
engineering the Abraham Accords.
Lutz, Fla.
tions rates and the weakening capacity of the among populations with higher vaccination That is far more important.
virus to cause disease. rates than China’s with more effective vaccines THOMAS KLEIN
The easing appears to be substantial given and in places where many people already were Saratoga, Calif.
the heavy-handedness of zero-Covid over the exposed to earlier virus strains. Mr. Xi and his Pepper ...
past three years. Authorities will no longer be citizens—and the rest of the world—have to
A Macaroni Misdemeanor And Salt
able to cast whole city blocks into lockdown hope that Omicron will prove similarly mild in
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
limbo at the first hint of a positive Covid test a country that stifled natural immunity and re- In your analysis of “The Microwave
in the neighborhood, and Chinese citizens fi- fused superior Western mRNA vaccines for na- Pasta Tort” (Review & Outlook, Dec.
nally are free of expensive and intrusive fre- tionalist reasons. 5), in which the plaintiffs complain
quent testing as they go about their daily lives The message to foreign businesses is that that the cooking time Kraft allows for
the preparation of its Velveeta shells
or travel domestically. China remains far from the status quo pre-
is inadequate, you somehow overlook
Yet the new rules merely create a Covid re- Covid. After three years of zero-Covid, the Chi- the great legal rule that should settle
gime equivalent to the regulations that West- nese economy now faces an indeterminate pe- the case: the landmark al dente ruling.
ern countries largely abandoned a year ago. riod of milder restrictions—unless there is more MARK HALPERN
Those who test positive may still be required widespread serious illness. Oakland, Calif.
to self-isolate at home—an improvement on Beijing’s easing of zero-Covid marks a tacti-
the hospital quarantines they faced—and in- cal retreat in the face of nationwide protests.
Letters intended for publication should
ternational travelers remain subject to quar- But this is not a sign Mr. Xi has tapped some be emailed to wsj.ltrs@wsj.com. Please
antine requirements when they enter China. hitherto unknown liberalizing instinct. Having include your city, state and telephone
Many countries have long since abandoned abandoned his effort to crush the virus, the con- number. All letters are subject to
the rules Beijing now is implementing be- tinuing China risk concerns what he will do to editing, and unpublished letters cannot “I’m a self starter, eager, ambitious
be acknowledged.
cause even the looser regulations proved eco- redouble control over the Chinese people. and willing to work all day.”
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Thursday, December 8, 2022 | A21
OPINION
A
ated a massive bow wave straints and priorities,
fter a disappointing elec- of post-pandemic spend- they can defund the Inter-
tion, a slim House Republi- ing, which if unconstrained nal Revenue Service inqui-
can majority will be the will drown out Republican sition and woke govern-
only sentry at the gate efforts to rebuild defense ment, fund defense and
holding back an adminis- and make the 2017 tax cuts border security, and re-
tration and Senate intent on taxing, permanent. strict the executive ex-
spending, regulating and transform- The federal government cesses that hamstring the
ing the foundations of American is operating through mid- economy and drive up
government. December under a con- prices. Protesting is easy.
House Republicans must govern, tinuing resolution that Governing is hard, involv-
which requires cobbling together the spends $1.76 trillion in fis- ing compromise. But if the
218 votes necessary to pass appro- cal 2023. That is $356 bil- new Republican majority
priation bills that constrain spending lion, or 25%, more than can pass its own funding
and using the power of the purse to the pre-pandemic 2020 bills, choosing restraints
rein in Biden administration abuses appropriation of $1.4 tril- on spending and appropri-
of executive, regulatory and anti- lion. Adding entitlements ation riders that have
trust authority. and mandatory spending, broad public support, they
including the Chips Act can define the differences
and the mandatory spend- between the parties and
The slender majority is ing provisions of the so- win the spending debate.
called Inflation Reduction If the Senate and White
the only sentry at the gate. Act, will increase total House refuse to negotiate,
PHIL FOSTER
Lawmakers have a duty 2023 spending to $5.9 tril- they will be shutting the
lion, $1.3 trillion above the government down.
to protect America’s fisc. pre-pandemic level. If Republicans can’t
Even after adjusting for contain the explosion of
inflation, annual post-pandemic The CBO projections didn’t include Security reform, no major entitle- social spending, continued fiscal
If united, Republicans can stop spending is up half a trillion dollars the billions of dollars in spending ment reform has occurred that stimulus will force the Federal Re-
any new tax bill, defund any discre- from the pre-pandemic level. That is in the Inflation Reduction Act or wasn’t bipartisan. Democrats, includ- serve to implement monetary policy
tionary spending program and con- twice as much as the estimated cost the roughly $150 billion Democrats ing Speaker Tip O’Neill, supported that will squeeze out more private
duct broad-ranging investigations. of extending the 2017 tax cuts. Com- are expected to seek for an omnibus entitlement reform only when discre- investment. That will lower growth
But investigating is a double-edged pared with pre-pandemic 2020 spending bill in the lame-duck ses- tionary spending was significantly in productivity and wages and in-
sword. Unless an investigation of spending levels, inflation-adjusted sion. Defense spending will be only restrained. Not only does restraining crease the national debt. While fo-
President Biden and his family pro- nondefense discretionary spending 3% of GDP in 2023 before falling to discretionary spending generate the cusing on stopping inflation, fund-
duces significant findings, it will be for 2023 grows by $206 billion, a postwar low of 2.7% in 2032. political credibility necessary to re- ing defense and making the tax cuts
portrayed by the media as a Trump- while real defense spending shrinks The age-old excuse for not con- form entitlements, it pressures both permanent, Republican leaders
inspired vendetta. If inflation per- by $33 billion. Realizing the Republi- trolling discretionary spending is parties into supporting entitlement must negotiate with each Republi-
sists and the economy continues to can goal of spending parity between that entitlements make up 62% of the reform. By winning a majority in the can member to find acceptable rid-
weaken, the specter of a Republican defense and nondefense discretion- total budget, and if you don’t change House, Republicans took up the man- ers and spending changes. The pro-
House preoccupied with investigat- ary programs will require wholesale entitlements, you don’t deal with the tle of governing. They can’t curtail cess won’t be pretty or pleasant,
ing the administration as stagflation budget changes. spending problem. But nondefense spending simply by voting against but it is what governing in a free
afflicts the nation will be seen as In May, the Congressional Bud- discretionary spending has been appropriation bills. The majority society requires.
fiddling while Rome burns, a charge get Office estimated that govern- bloated by the pandemic, and much party must pass a funding bill or the
that could bring defeat in 2024. ment spending in 2023 would be of what had been discretionary government will shut down. Shutting Mr. Gramm is a former chairman
While any new tax proposal will be 22.5% of gross domestic product, spending is now mandatory because the government down will only lead of the Senate Banking Committee and
easily blocked, stopping the spending down from its estimate of 23.8% of of legislative action by Democrats in to being beaten into submission and a nonresident senior fellow at Ameri-
spree is where the challenge will be GDP for 2022 spending. Actual Congress. allowing the spending spree to con- can Enterprise Institute. Mr. Solon is
monumentally greater. The federal 2022 spending hit 25.1% of GDP. Since the 1983 bipartisan Social tinue with bipartisan support. a partner of US Policy Metrics.
X
pany reported a 90% increase in sec- Beyond common national inter- China’s guiding ethical system, reluctant to speak, will do so only in
i Jinping and Mohammed bin ond quarter profits. Atop all that, ests, the two men share stylistic teaches loyalty to one’s family and the absence of cellphones. Digital
Salman are meeting this week he’s basking in the Saudi soccer similarities. Both are dreamers with then the emperor. Islam, too, currency and even more intrusive
in Riyadh. At first glance, the team’s upset victory over Argentina grandiose goals. Mr. Xi has spoken teaches obedience to family and, surveillance allow the Chinese gov-
president of China and the Saudi at the World Cup. passionately of the “Chinese Dream” above all, to Allah. In Saudi Arabia, ernment to track every move of citi-
crown prince appear to have little in China and Saudi Arabia estab- from the moment he ascended to the king is Allah’s earthly represen- zens, who are assigned a “social
common beyond their shared convic- lished diplomatic ties in 1990. In power in 2012. He promises to reju- tative, and so he must be obeyed. credit” score that measures their
tion that America is in decline. But 2006 the late King Abdullah became venate his once-great civilization So complete is the two men’s con- “trustworthiness” and metes out
a closer look reveals numerous simi- the first Saudi ruler to visit Beijing, fully by 2049, the 100th anniversary trol that each is labeled “Mr. Ev- punishments and privileges accord-
larities, especially their assertive de- and the relationship has warmed re- of the Communist takeover of erything” by his citizens. ingly. China’s internal-security bud-
termination to play a dominant role cently as Riyadh has started to China. Beyond these historic precepts of get is nearly as large as its rapidly
in world affairs. doubt the durability of its alliance obedience, both have ruthlessly growing defense budget.
Mr. Xi can expect an extrava- with America. While the U.S. re- eliminated opposition under the pre- Mr. Xi appears increasingly confi-
gantly warm welcome from MBS, as mains the kingdom’s largest arms Both men think American text of dealing with corruption. In dent that China will one day displace
the crown prince is known. The supplier, China has become its major 2017, MBS brazenly locked up scores the U.S. as the pre-eminent global
pomp and ceremony will boost Mr. trading partner, entirely as a result decline gives them the of royal relatives and prominent citi- leader, and MBS is riding high after
Xi’s stature back home, where he of large imports of Saudi oil. Each chance to play a leading zens in a hotel on charges of hiding a wave of wins. Yet both leaders face
faces protests over Covid lockdowns, has invested billions in the other’s illicit wealth. Most were released serious economic challenges, includ-
a stagnant economy and his assump- country and more doubtlessly will role in world affairs. eventually after forfeiting a collec- ing high rates of youth unemploy-
tion of an unprecedented third term be announced this trip. tive $100 billion to the government. ment in both countries. And public
as China’s leader. MBS similarly ben- Both leaders see themselves as But many are still under house ar- swagger on the red carpet is one
efited from Mr. Xi’s warm welcome symbols of proud and ancient civili- MBS’s Vision 2030 is similarly rest, unable to leave the kingdom. thing. Private choices tell a more nu-
in Beijing in 2019 on the heels of the zations that are superior to the ambitious. He seeks to transform his Mr. Xi has exhibited similar anced story: China’s president sent
murder of Jamal Khashoggi. An aide West. They are deeply offended by oil-dependent nation into a techno- harshness. Over the past decade he his only daughter to Harvard, and
to the crown prince says of that Washington’s assertion that individ- logical powerhouse drawing the has purged vast numbers of political the Saudi crown prince’s five chil-
visit, “MBS managed Trump, but he ual liberty and human rights are world’s most innovative citizens to a rivals. With television cameras roll- dren study Chinese and English.
meshed with Xi.” universal. Mr. Xi can be confident space-age city he is building for ing in October he had his predeces-
For MBS, everything looks rosy he’ll hear nothing during this visit $500 billion in the desert. sor, Hu Jintao, marched out of a Ms. House, a former publisher of
now. World leaders are eager to meet about China’s treatment of its Uy- Both leaders can marshal public Communist Party conference. The Wall Street Journal, is author of
with him again. The Saudi economy ghur population, which the U.S. has and private resources at their Both men oversee sophisticated, “On Saudi Arabia: Its People, Past,
is among the world’s fastest growing labeled genocide. Nor will Mr. Xi whim because their citizens are pervasive internal intelligence sys- Religion, Fault Lines—and Future.”
W
has conveniently stepped into the muddies the waters. Does it mean to catch up with demand and restore Fed by commercial banks, in tandem
hose fault is it when the breach—proclaiming its own guilt as that Congress and the White House the balance that will yield stable with paying interest on cash parked
cost of living surges to re- the leading cause of rising prices. are absolved of responsibility for in- prices over time,” Mr. Powell ex- overnight at the Fed by money-mar-
cord levels? In a Gallup Beginning in August at the Jackson flation? Do voters simply have to ac- plained at a recent Brookings Insti- ket mutual funds through reverse re-
poll taken just before the midterm Hole, Wyo., annual gathering for cept that the Fed has no choice but tution event. “Restoring that balance purchase agreements, is proving ex-
election, Americans identified infla- policy makers, and continuing at to counter the consequences of ex- is likely to require a sustained pe- pensive. While the Fed used to
tion as the most important problem both the September and November cessive government spending—par- riod of below-trend growth.” contribute substantial earnings from
facing the nation. Poor government press conferences following mone- ticularly fiscal transfer payments— Seeking below-trend growth and its portfolio holdings as “remit-
leadership also was named a prob- tary-policy committee meetings, the by inflicting higher interest rates on higher unemployment to deal with tances” to the Treasury—some $846
lem—but does that mean anyone in central bank’s Chairman Jerome the whole economy? the lack of goods and services in billion in the last 10 years—it now is
government will actually be held Powell has said: “Price stability is Fiscal transfer payments, such as our economy may strike some as a operating at a loss. Americans may
accountable? the responsibility of the Federal Re- stimulus checks and expanded un- questionable strategy for the Fed. begin to question why Treasury is
Republicans castigate the Biden serve and serves as the bedrock of employment insurance, ignited the advancing funds to the central bank
administration and congressional our economy.” high inflation that leads the list of to pay high rates of interest to banks
Democrats for reckless spending It seems a gallant gesture—no American economic concerns. Ac- Congress flails, the Fed and mutual funds on risk-free cash
even as White House officials con- matter that the bedrock has become cording to a recent study prepared deposits—especially if it will require
tend that Republican plans would a slippery slope. But Mr. Powell’s for the Fed’s Board of Governors by professes responsibility, a “sustained period” to meet the
make America’s fiscal situation declaration is proffered under the its own economists, the buildup of and taxpayers get stuck Fed’s objectives.
worse. But rather than work out so- protective umbrella of the Fed’s sta- household income through govern- It’s too bad that respecting the
lutions to the budget deficits and in- tus as an independent government ment transfers during the pandemic holding the bag. Fed’s independence prevents Con-
debtedness that exacerbate infla- agency and one exempt from those subsequently fueled spending. “We gress from looking more closely at
tionary pressures, Congress seems hard political choices. estimate that U.S. households accu- this tool aimed at preventing some
incapable of making hard political In short, the Fed’s mea culpa for mulated about $2.3 trillion in sav- Even more questionable are the $5.5 trillion from entering the real
choices. rising prices provides no real ac- ings in 2020 and through the sum- mechanisms used to conduct mone- economy. If Congress exercised its
mer of 2021,” the study notes, citing tary policy. Despite Mr. Powell’s as- constitutional power to regulate the
“historic levels of government trans- surances that the Fed has the nec- value of money, it might tell the
fers” that included stimulus pay- essary tools to restore price Fed to stop paying banks and mu-
PUBLISHED SINCE 1889 BY DOW JONES & COMPANY ments ($844 billion), unemployment stability—defined by the Fed as 2% tual funds not to make loans or in-
Rupert Murdoch Robert Thomson insurance ($836 billion), and other inflation—there is reason to doubt vest capital in productive economic
Executive Chairman, News Corp Chief Executive Officer, News Corp transfer receipts ($548 billion). their efficacy. opportunities.
Matt Murray Almar Latour The payments “enabled more In the years before Covid, the Fed The Fed should show Congress its
Editor in Chief Chief Executive Officer and Publisher
households to smooth their con- had a hard time pushing inflation up study on government fiscal transfers
Karen Miller Pensiero, Managing Editor DOW JONES MANAGEMENT: sumption” during the negative in- to the 2% target rate using its pri- as a driver of inflation—noting that
Jason Anders, Deputy Editor in Chief Daniel Bernard, Chief Experience Officer; come shock, the economists point mary tools: paying near-zero inter- it would be easier to restore balance
Neal Lipschutz, Deputy Editor in Chief Mae M. Cheng, SVP, Barron’s Group; David Cho,
Barron’s Editor in Chief; Jason P. Conti, General
out while also conceding that “ex- est rates on reserve balances and between demand and supply if Con-
Thorold Barker, Europe; Elena Cherney, News;
Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer; Dianne DeSevo, cess savings have fueled high levels purchasing trillions in government gress didn’t pay people not to work.
Andrew Dowell, Asia; Brent Jones, Culture,
Training & Outreach; Alex Martin, Print & Chief People Officer; Frank Filippo, EVP, Business of spending for some households, debt securities. Now it presumes to But this is likely wishful thinking.
Writing; Michael W. Miller, Features & Weekend; Information & Services, Operations; Robert Hayes, which may have contributed to per- bring the current 7.7% inflation rate Between the failings of both fiscal-
Emma Moody, Standards; Shazna Nessa, Visuals; Chief Business Officer, New Ventures; sistently high inflation amid con- down to its 2% target rate by essen- and monetary-policy makers, it looks
Elizabeth O’Melia, Chief Financial Officer;
Matthew Rose, Enterprise; Michael Siconolfi,
Josh Stinchcomb, EVP & Chief Revenue Officer,
strained supply.” tially reversing the use of those as if taxpayers will be the ones held
Investigations; Amanda Wills, Video
WSJ | Barron’s Group; Jennifer Thurman, Chief So we are left with a central bank same tools: paying higher interest accountable.
Paul A. Gigot Communications Officer; Sherry Weiss, Chief determined to combat inflation by rates on reserve balances and
Editor of the Editorial Page Marketing Officer moving its benchmark interest rate shrinking its balance sheet by not Ms. Shelton, a monetary econo-
Gerard Baker, Editor at Large
EDITORIAL AND CORPORATE HEADQUARTERS:
to levels that will restrain economic replacing government debt securi- mist, is a senior fellow at the Inde-
1211 Avenue of the Americas, New York, N.Y., 10036 expansion and reduce hiring—all to ties that mature. pendent Institute and author of
Telephone 1-800-DOWJONES curb aggregate demand. “Slowing Moreover, paying high interest “Money Meltdown.”
A22 | Thursday, December 8, 2022 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
TECHNOLOGY: WASHINGTON POST MULLS SALE OF IN-HOUSE SOFTWARE UNIT B4
DJ TRANS g 0.94%
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
On Hopes
Mr. Balwani’s sentencing month to 11¼ years for four The Balwani sentence criminal and civil investiga-
year term for former comes more than four years counts of criminal fraud tied marks the final chapter in a tions into the firm and led to
Theranos president, after the collapse of Theranos, to her now defunct blood-test- corporate scandal that the 2018 indictments of Ms.
For New
which promised to revolution- ing startup. The result is an erupted more than seven Holmes and Mr. Balwani on
Holmes boyfriend ize healthcare but peddled unusual white-collar criminal fraud and conspiracy charges.
faulty technology to patients punishment for Mr. Balwani: The scandal entered popular
BY HEATHER SOMERVILLE and investors, along the way being sentenced to a longer American culture, led to a
MAX
AND CHRISTOPHER WEAVER delivering inaccurate health prison term than his former
Mr. Balwani was bestselling book, an award-
results and squandering hun- boss and the company chief sentenced to a winning Hulu series and a
SAN JOSE, Calif. – Thera- dreds of millions of dollars. executive, who was at the cen- planned movie, in addition to
nos Inc.’s former No. 2 execu- Mr. Balwani helped lead the ter of the fraud.
longer prison term multiple university case stud-
tive, Ramesh “Sunny” Bal- deception as Theranos’s for- Mr. Balwani declined to than his former boss. ies on corporate fraud. BY ANDREW TANGEL
wani, was sentenced to nearly mer president and chief oper- make a statement when in- The once-highflying Thera-
13 years in prison for his in- ating officer and a focus of vited to before his sentencing. nos stands as a cautionary Federal lawmakers dealt a
volvement in an elaborate one of the highest-profile He also didn’t testify during signal to Silicon Valley about setback to Boeing Co., proposing
fraud scheme at the blood- white-collar cases in recent his trial. That differed from years ago following a series of the criminal risks of mislead- a defense bill that didn’t exempt
testing company, marking the years. Ms. Holmes, who testified on Wall Street Journal articles ing investors and consumers two new 737 MAX models from
capstone of a yearslong saga Mr. Balwani’s former busi- her own behalf and issued a that called into question Ther- about new technology. The a new regulatory requirement,
that became synonymous with ness partner and ex-girlfriend, tearful apology to the judge anos’s claims about its blood- sentencing of the top two as the plane maker had sought.
the worst of Silicon Valley Theranos founder Elizabeth about the harm she had testing technology. Please turn to page B2 Negotiators in Congress
dropped the potential waiver
from the National Defense Au-
The industry
counsel, Kirkland & Ellis LLP,
to evaluate restructuring op-
tions, the people familiar with BY ALEXANDRA BRUELL wasn’t reached by then.
Please turn to page B2 By Wednesday evening,
INSIDE
More than 1,000 New York
Times Co. staffers vowed not
to work on Thursday, its
about 1,100 union members
had pledged not to work
Thursday and forgo pay, a
leader in artificial
newsroom union said, mark- NewsGuild representative
ing the first strike in over 40
years at the organization.
The one-day work stoppage
said. Taking into account em-
ployees who aren’t part of the
union, the Times has more
intelligence software.
comes as contract negotia- than 1,800 newsroom staffers
tions between management around the world.
and the members of the A Times spokeswoman said
NewsGuild, which represents that despite the large share of
1,450 Times staffers—includ- U.S. employees planning not
ing 1,270 newsroom employ- to work Thursday, the com-
ees—have stalled for nearly pany was “prepared to ensure
two years over pay and bene- the Times continues to serve
fits. Both sides were still ne- our readers without disrup-
gotiating on Wednesday but tion.”
both said talks ended early in The Times has identified
BUSINESS NEWS the evening. editors with reporting back-
A leading music deal In separate memos on grounds who can cover the
Wednesday evening, Chief Ex- news on Thursday, according
maker faces discord ecutive Meredith Kopit Levien to people familiar with the
from investors as its and Executive Editor Joseph company. The strike won’t af-
shares decline. B3 Kahn expressed disappoint- fect the company’s ability to Source: IDC, Worldwide Artificial Intelligence Platforms Software Market Shares, 2021: AI
Is Being Used In More Unique Ways Than Ever (2022)
ment about the walkout. publish a print paper, they
“Strikes typically happen said.
CRYPTOCURRENCY when talks deadlock,” Mr. “We will produce a robust
FTX’s new Kahn wrote in an email to report on Thursday,” Mr. Kahn
staffers. “That is not where wrote in his memo Wednes-
management hires a we are today.” day evening. “But it will be
The information presented in the table above has been compiled and analyzed by IDC using their methodology described in
the Worldwide Artificial Intelligence Platforms Software Market Shares, 2021: AI Is Being Used in More Unique Ways Than
forensic team to track The Times union last week harder than usual.” Ever (2022) report contained on IDC's webstte (www.idc.com). We have not independentlyverthecl, and make no
its missing money. B4 said it would go on strike Staffers plan to picket the representations as to, the accuracy or completeness of the data contained in this report.
Explore Your
Kirkland didn’t respond to the equity worthless in a Carvana turned to Apollo,
a request for comment. bankruptcy sce- which agreed in April to pur-
Lenders have been increas- nario…or highly diluted in a
‘It appears that the chase about half of $3.3 bil-
Membership
ingly pitted against one an- best case,” Mr. Basham wrote. lenders want to lion of bonds Carvana issued
other in contentious debt re- Some Carvana creditors to buy Adesa.
structurings in recent years, who signed the cooperation
present a united The bonds had a coupon of
including those of Revlon Inc., agreement have themselves front,’ an analyst says. 10.25%, a yield well above av-
KKR & Co.-owned Envision been involved in contentious erage for most junk bonds,
Healthcare and Bausch Health deals. and almost doubled Carvana’s Your WSJ membership doesn’t stop
Cos. Ares was a member of a annual interest expense. here. Visit our digital product showcase
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raise new debt from majori- lectual-property assets that use of its online platform ex- it laid off about 1,500 people
ties of their lenders, some- had previously been pledged ploded. The company focused last month.
times to the detriment of the to a different group of lend- on growth over profitability —Alexander Gladstone, G E T S TA R T E D
excluded minority. ers. Pimco backed a similar and has only posted a single Soma Biswas and Will Feuer WSJ.com/beneits
“One of the main dynamics transaction for Envision that quarter of $22 million profit contributed to this article.
in high-profile restructurings moved collateral away from in the second quarter of 2021
over the last few years has other lenders earlier this year. against net losses of $781 mil-
been creditor-on-creditor vio- Jeffrey Brown, chief execu- lion in the first three quarters Watch a Video
lence,” said Steven Hunter, tive of Ally Financial Inc., of 2022. Scan this code
chief executive at 9fin, a which finances Carvana’s in- A focus on market expan- for a video
credit analytics platform. “It ventory and purchases some sion led the company to ac- about what
appears that the lenders want of the loans it generates, said quire the physical auction went wrong © 2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All rights reserved. 2DJ8674
to present a united front and at an investor conference business of Adesa U.S. for at Carvana.
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. NY Thursday, December 8, 2022 | B3
BUSINESS NEWS
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TECHNOLOGY WSJ.com/Tech
JOSHUA ROBERTS/REUTERS
The Post’s software, known they said. miliar with the matter said.
as Arc XP, services the likes of Mr. Prakash wasn’t always The AlixPartners team is led
pro basketball’s Golden State on the same page as the Post’s by Matt Jacques, a former chief
Warriors and BP PLC. But the publisher, Fred Ryan, when it accountant for the Securities
business, the executives said, came to Arc’s needs and the po- and Exchange Commission’s en-
reached a crossroads and the tential appeal of a spinoff, peo- forcement division, people fa-
Post needed to explore a spinoff ple familiar with the situation miliar with the matter said. Mr.
or sale to realize its potential, Owner Jeff Bezos has encouraged Washington Post staffers to be entrepreneurial. said. Mr. Prakash at times Jacques didn’t respond to a re-
according to people familiar pushed for greater investment quest to comment.
with the discussions. Mr. Bezos Journal. The business isn’t prof- three million in January 2021, some customers pushed for cus- in Arc and argued that as a AlixPartners will be tasked
gave his blessing to explore itable, so far. the people said. The company tom features and required a de- stand-alone company it could with conducting asset-tracing
those options, they said. Executives at the Post de- isn’t expecting to make a profit gree of hand-holding, they said. do a better job recruiting top to identify and try to recover
The Post embraced digital bated whether it was better to this year, they said. The company initially signed engineers, by offering them eq- missing digital assets, the peo-
experimentation under Mr. Be- spin off Arc, which drew some Arc existed before Mr. Bezos up U.S. publishers including the uity and giving them more free- ple said.
zos, who acquired the company interest from potential acquir- arrived. It was a content-man- Boston Globe and Chicago Trib- dom to work remotely than was The firm’s work will com-
in 2013, creating an advertis- ers, or continue to build it in agement system that was une, and added TV broadcasters possible at the Post, the people plement efforts undertaken by
ing-technology business and house, people familiar with de- meant to improve the Post’s such as Gray Television and Cox said. FTX’s bankruptcy counsel Sul-
launching new apps and ana- liberations said. digital and print publishing Media Group. In 2021, the Last year, the Post received livan & Cromwell LLP, restruc-
lytics tools. Arc is arguably the As with several other news functions. Shailesh Prakash, group expanded and added fea- takeover interest for Arc, in- turing adviser Alvarez &
most ambitious tech project, organizations, the Post’s traffic who was the Post’s chief infor- tures meant to appeal to other cluding from a special-purpose Marsal and investigative firm
with some 250 dedicated staff- and subscriptions fell after a mation officer and most senior big companies around the acquisition company that of- Nardello & Co.
ers. surge during the Trump presi- technology executive, was over- world. fered more than $100 million A lawyer for FTX said in
For news companies that are dency and the start of the pan- seeing the project. Now, Arc is powering an on- for at least a piece of the busi- bankruptcy court last month
mostly reliant on ad and sub- demic. Ad revenue at the Post is Mr. Bezos green-lighted a line resale marketplace for ness, according to people fa- that a substantial amount of
scription revenue, developing a expected to be down this year plan to begin licensing the tech- buying suites at the Golden miliar with the offer. The Post its assets are either missing or
different line of business is at- compared with last year, as nology to other organizations. State Warriors’ Chase Center didn’t pursue a sale at that stolen.
tractive. The Post expects Arc marketers rein in spending, ac- He saw the value of building a arena. The tech business touts time. FTX founder Sam Bankman-
to generate over $200 million cording to people familiar with software-as-a-service business, nearly 100 clients, some of The Post has committed to Fried told The Wall Street
in annual recurring revenue by the company’s financials. but he warned the technology which generate millions of rev- investing more than $50 million Journal that he couldn’t ex-
2027, a roughly fourfold in- The Post is on pace to gener- team that customer support enue annually, according to in Arc next year, exceeding past plain what happened to bil-
crease over its contribution ate around $600 million in rev- could be a drain on resources, people familiar with Arc’s oper- investments, according to peo- lions of dollars sent from FTX
now, according to a document enue in 2022 and has over 2.5 people familiar with the matter ations. ple familiar with the plans for to a related trading firm,
reviewed by The Wall Street million subscribers, down from said. He was proved right, as Mr. Bezos didn’t green-light Arc. Alameda Research.
FTX’s new chief executive,
John Ray, has said the firm’s fi-
Staffers Set The company recently of- media outlets, is also facing a leagues as “potentially compro-
ANGELA WEISS/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
fered a choice between keep- challenging economic climate mised.” Mr. Ray also said FTX
ing a pension plan or select- as advertisers pare back used software to conceal the
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B6 | Thursday, December 8, 2022 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
TECHNOLOGY
ABSCI
technology that enables Ope- of artificial intelligence in drug
nAI’s ChatGPT to generate hu- Absci says it used protein-language models to enhance a cancer drug, making it bind more tightly to its target on cells’ surface. development. Helixon last
man-like responses—to analyze month signed with two big
and synthesize proteins, which required for the early stages of which more-effective medicines to transform a Covid-19 drug pharma companies to tackle
are the building blocks of life drug discovery could shrink have remained elusive. Improving Molecules candidate that is only effective previously undruggable dis-
and of many drugs. The ap- from years to months. “Technologies like these are With the technology still in against alpha, beta and gamma eases, CEO and founder Jian
proach exploits the fact that bi- going to start addressing areas the early stages, companies for variants into one that could Peng says.
ological codes have something of biology that have been ‘un- now are focused on using pro- also treat delta. “All the hard problems in
in common with search queries Natural Promise druggable,’ ” says Sean Mc- tein-language models to en- Ainnocence, a startup that drug discovery have been stuck
and email texts: Both are repre- “Nature has provided us Clain, founder and CEO of Ab- hance known molecules, such spans the U.S. and China, helps there for a long time and have
sented by a series of letters. with tons of examples of pro- sci Corp., a drug discovery as to improve the efficacy of clients use such models to been waiting for a new wave of
Proteins are made up of doz- teins that have been designed company in Vancouver, Wash. drug candidates. Given, say, a modify animal proteins, such as technology to solve it,” says
ens to thousands of small exquisitely with a variety of Natural language processing naturally occurring monoclonal antibodies from rabbits—a Ainnocence’s Dr. Pan. “This is
chemical subunits known as functions,” says Ali Madani, for drug discovery still faces antibody as a starting point, common starting point for drug really a paradigm-shifting
amino acids, and scientists use founder of ProFluent Bio, a major hurdles, according to the models can recommend discovery—into forms compati- methodology.”
special notation to document Berkeley, Calif.-based startup computational biologists. Tin- tweaks to its amino acid se- ble with human physiology, ac- Ultimately, many computa-
the sequences. With each focused on language-based pro- kering too much with existing quence to improve its thera- cording to the company’s tional biologists expect protein-
amino acid corresponding to a tein design. “We’re learning the protein-based drugs could in- peutic benefit. founder and CEO, Lurong Pan. language models to yield bene-
single letter of the alphabet, blueprint from nature.” troduce unintended side effects, In a preprint paper pub- fits beyond faster drug
proteins are represented as Protein-based drugs are they say, and wholly synthetic lished online in August, re- development. The same tech-
long, sentence-like combina- used to treat heart disease, cer- molecules will require rigorous searchers at Absci used this Starting From Scratch nique might be used to produce
tions. tain cancers and HIV, among testing to make sure they are method to enhance the anti- But even now drugmakers better enzymes for degrading
Natural language algorithms, other illnesses. In the past two safe for the human body. body-based cancer drug trastu- are setting their sights beyond plastics, treating wastewater
which quickly analyze language years, companies including But if the natural language zumab so that it binds more the modification of known pro- and cleaning up oil spills,
and predict the next step in a Merck & Co., Roche Holding algorithms work as their adopt- tightly to its target on the sur- teins to so-called de novo de- among other environmental ap-
conversation, also can be ap- AG’s Genentech and a number ers hope, they will bring new face of cancer cells. A tighter sign, the process of synthesiz- plications, the biologists say.
plied to this biological data to of startups like Helixon Ltd. force to the promise of artifi- bind could mean patients de- ing molecules from scratch. “Proteins are the work-
create protein-language models. and Ainnocence have begun to cial intelligence to transform rive benefit from a lower dos- Genentech says a recent ex- horses of life,” ProFluent Bio’s
The models encode what might pursue new drugs with natural drug discovery. Previous at- age, shortening drug regimens periment showed that it was Dr. Madani says. “They enable
be called the grammar of pro- language processing. The ap- tempts to use AI struggled with and reducing side effects. possible to design an antibody us to breathe and see, they en-
teins—the rules that govern proach, they hope, will not only limitations in the technology or In another paper published to bind to the same cellular tar- able the environment to be sus-
which amino acid combinations boost the effectiveness of exist- a lack of data. Recent advances in March in the Proceedings of get as pertuzumab, a breast tained, they enable human
yield specific therapeutic prop- ing drugs and drug candidates in natural language processing the National Academy of Sci- cancer drug on the market that health and disease. If we can
erties—to predict the se- but also open the door to and a dramatic drop in the cost ences, researchers from MIT, Genentech sells under the design better workers or new
quences of letters that could never-before-seen molecules of protein sequencing have Tsinghua University and He- brand name Perjeta, but with workers all together, that could
become the basis of new drug that could treat diseases like largely overcome both prob- lixon, which is based in Beijing, an entirely new amino acid se- have really wide-ranging appli-
molecules. As a result, the time pancreatic cancer or ALS, for lems, proponents say. used protein-language models quence. Company scientists cations.”
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JONNE RORIZ/BLOOMBERG NEWS
MARKETS DIGEST
EQUITIES
Dow Jones Industrial Average S&P 500 Index Nasdaq Composite Index
Last Year ago Last Year ago Last Year ago
33597.92 s 1.58, or 0.005% Trailing P/E ratio 20.91 22.25 3933.92 t 7.34, or 0.19% Trailing P/E ratio * 19.65 28.06 10958.55 t 56.34, or 0.51% Trailing P/E ratio *† 24.98 34.63
High, low, open and close for each P/E estimate * 18.83 17.74 High, low, open and close for each P/E estimate * 18.36 21.42 High, low, open and close for each P/E estimate *† 23.15 29.75
trading day of the past three months. Dividend yield 2.04 1.93 trading day of the past three months. Dividend yield * 1.66 1.31 trading day of the past three months. Dividend yield *† 0.93 0.66
All-time high 36799.65, 01/04/22 All-time high 4796.56, 01/03/22 All-time high: 16057.44, 11/19/21
Session high
DOWN UP 29900 3650 10700
t
Close Open
t
CD yields Greenwood Village, CO 877-484-2372 Kazakhstan tenge .002113 473.35 8.8 Bahrain dinar 2.6522 .3771 0.03
Yen
s
0.00 First Internet Bank of Indiana 4.39% 0.00 –28 Macau pataca .1245 8.0319 –0.1 Egypt pound .0406 24.6472 56.9
Malaysia ringgit .2274 4.3975 5.6 Israel shekel .2912 3.4340 10.5
Indianapolis, IN 888-873-3424 1 3 6 1 2 3 5 7 10 20 30 2022
–1.00 New Zealand dollar .6355 1.5736 7.6 Kuwait dinar 3.2592 .3068 1.4
CFG Community Bank 4.60% month(s) years
D J FMAM J J A S ON D Pakistan rupee .00445 224.625 27.5 Oman sul rial 2.5974 .3850 ...
Baltimore, MD 888-205-8388 maturity Philippines peso .0180 55.496 8.8 Qatar rial .2723 3.672 0.8
2022
Sources: Tradeweb ICE U.S. Treasury Close; Tullett Prebon; Dow Jones Market Data Singapore dollar .7377 1.3555 0.5 Saudi Arabia riyal .2659 3.7603 0.1
Yield/Rate (%) 52-Week Range (%) 3-yr chg South Korea won .0007606 1314.77 10.6 South Africa rand .0583 17.1567 7.6
Interest rate Last (l)Week ago Low 0 2 4 6 8 High (pct pts)
Corporate Borrowing Rates and Yields Sri Lanka rupee .0027211 367.50 81.1
Close Net Chg % Chg YTD%Chg
Federal-funds rate target 3.75-4.00 3.75-4.00 0.00 l 4.00 2.25 Taiwan dollar .03267 30.605 10.4
Yield (%) 52-Week Total Return (%) Thailand baht .02860 34.960 5.2 WSJ Dollar Index 98.03 –0.35–0.36 9.47
Prime rate* 7.00 7.00 3.25 l 7.00 2.25 Bond total return index Close Last Week ago High Low 52-wk 3-yr
Libor, 3-month 4.72 4.78 0.20 l 4.78 2.83 Sources: Tullett Prebon, Dow Jones Market Data
U.S. Treasury, Bloomberg 2137.520 3.860 4.050 4.560 1.170 –10.659 –1.959
Money market, annual yield 0.32 0.31 0.07 l 0.32 -0.25
Five-year CD, annual yield 2.65 2.59 0.42 l 2.65 1.24 U.S. Treasury Long, Bloomberg 3408.580 3.610 3.960 4.570 1.820 –24.569 –5.512 Commodities
30-year mortgage, fixed† 6.76 6.84 3.21 l 7.41 2.86 Aggregate, Bloomberg 1994.940 4.400 4.560 5.210 1.720 –11.117 –1.939 Wednesday 52-Week YTD
Pricing trends on someClose
raw materials, or commodities
Net chg % Chg High Low % Chg % chg
15-year mortgage, fixed† 6.05 6.13 2.53 l 6.53 2.71 Fixed-Rate MBS, Bloomberg 1978.010 4.520 4.590 5.380 1.960 –9.814 –2.434
Jumbo mortgages, $647,200-plus† 6.78 6.87 3.21 l 7.44 2.55 DJ Commodity 1015.34 1.67 0.16 1264.48 904.89 10.30 7.30
High Yield 100, ICE BofA 3144.133 7.909 n.a. 8.753 3.669 –8.825 0.059 Refinitiv/CC CRB Index 265.89 -1.57 -0.59 329.59 221.84 17.07 14.42
Five-year adj mortgage (ARM)† 5.43 5.45 2.82 l 5.60 1.02
Muni Master, ICE BofA 561.352 3.083 3.216 3.936 0.895 –6.691 –0.181 Crude oil, $ per barrel 72.01 -2.24 -3.02 123.70 68.23 -0.48 -4.25
New-car loan, 48-month 6.46 6.44 3.41 l 6.69 2.05
Bankrate.com rates based on survey of over 4,800 online banks. *Base rate posted by 70% of the nation's largest EMBI Global, J.P. Morgan 774.828 7.569 7.744 9.159 4.892 –15.777 –3.653 Natural gas, $/MMBtu 5.723 0.254 4.64 9.680 3.561 50.01 53.43
banks.† Excludes closing costs.
Sources: FactSet; Dow Jones Market Data; Bankrate.com Sources: J.P. Morgan; Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices; ICE Data Services
Gold, $ per troy oz. 1785.50 16.20 0.92 2040.10 1623.30 0.12 -2.30
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Thursday, December 8, 2022 | B9
COMMODITIES | wsj.com/market-data/commodities
Metal & Petroleum Futures Feb 2.1665 2.1801 2.0839 2.0886 –.0720 37,446 Jan 181.500 182.250 180.750 180.900 –.900 21,463 Sept 96.5250 96.5275 96.5250 96.5275 .0000 618,360
Natural Gas (NYM)-10,000 MMBtu.; $ per MMBtu. March 183.850 184.450 183.050 183.250 –.900 11,723 June'23 95.0550 95.1600 95.0450 95.1250 .0650 1,120,956
Contract Open Jan 5.388 5.850 5.383 5.723 .254 156,988 Cattle-Live (CME)-40,000 lbs.; cents per lb. Eurodollar (CME)-$1,000,000; pts of 100%
Open High hi lo Low Settle Chg interest Feb 5.300 5.719 5.298 5.617 .239 68,793 Dec 151.700 152.150 151.225 151.925 .375 13,196 Dec 95.1750 95.2125 95.1725 95.2050 .0275 1,351,756
Copper-High (CMX)-25,000 lbs.; $ per lb. March 4.883 5.265 4.875 5.192 .249 125,026 Feb'23 153.650 153.900 152.750 153.550 –.075 131,120 March'23 94.8500 94.9150 94.8450 94.8900 .0400 827,743
Dec 3.8185 3.8570 3.7775 3.8555 0.0440 3,278 April 4.487 4.711 4.482 4.671 .150 103,105 Hogs-Lean (CME)-40,000 lbs.; cents per lb. Sept 94.9500 95.0800 94.9450 95.0550 .0900 684,455
March'23 3.8210 3.8740 3.7750 3.8605 0.0425 104,388 May 4.497 4.678 4.465 4.646 .144 98,403 Dec 82.825 83.175 82.325 82.375 .100 14,880 Dec 95.2700 95.4300 95.2600 95.4100 .1200 758,791
Gold (CMX)-100 troy oz.; $ per troy oz. Oct 4.678 4.871 4.676 4.832 .128 50,884 Feb'23 87.000 87.750 85.950 86.650 –.275 80,062
Dec 1769.30 1790.30 1769.30 1785.50 16.20 6,544 Lumber (CME)-110,000 bd. ft., $ per 1,000 bd. ft. Currency Futures
Jan'23 1774.70 1796.10 1774.30 1791.00 15.50 1,486 Agriculture Futures Jan 414.50 436.40 412.30 429.40 14.30 2,280
Feb 1783.30 1803.20 1780.50 1798.00 15.60 356,503 March 414.00 435.00 414.00 426.60 14.10 654 Japanese Yen (CME)-¥12,500,000; $ per 100¥
April 1798.30 1817.90 1796.80 1813.20 15.60 29,934 Corn (CBT)-5,000 bu.; cents per bu. Milk (CME)-200,000 lbs., cents per lb. Dec .7310 .7352 .7265 .7348 .0032 205,745
June 1812.10 1833.20 1812.10 1828.80 15.60 14,135 Dec 626.50 632.50 624.00 627.75 2.25 1,635 Dec 20.50 20.50 20.20 20.39 –.08 4,672 March'23 .7399 .7438 .7351 .7434 .0032 16,560
Aug 1831.50 1848.40 1829.40 1844.70 15.30 5,080 March'23 637.50 645.75 635.00 641.25 4.00 587,608 Jan'23 20.03 20.03 19.41 19.62 –.42 3,827 Canadian Dollar (CME)-CAD 100,000; $ per CAD
Palladium (NYM) - 50 troy oz.; $ per troy oz. Oats (CBT)-5,000 bu.; cents per bu. Cocoa (ICE-US)-10 metric tons; $ per ton. Dec .7326 .7359 .7300 .7326 .0008 136,481
Dec 1831.90 2.80 1 Dec 336.25 –4.25 5 Dec 2,442 5 1 March'23 .7337 .7366 .7311 .7335 .0005 10,117
March'23 1852.00 1882.50 1839.00 1854.30 2.80 7,698 March'23 338.25 344.00 331.50 332.75 –4.25 3,291 March'23 2,476 2,509 2,475 2,492 5 122,576 British Pound (CME)-£62,500; $ per £
Platinum (NYM)-50 troy oz.; $ per troy oz. Soybeans (CBT)-5,000 bu.; cents per bu. Coffee (ICE-US)-37,500 lbs.; cents per lb. Dec 1.2136 1.2239 1.2111 1.2218 .0069 216,474
Dec 1024.50 16.10 1 Jan 1456.00 1478.00 1455.75 1472.00 17.00 209,644 Dec 157.70 –3.35 1,312 March'23 1.2165 1.2267 1.2141 1.2247 .0069 11,370
Jan'23 996.10 1024.90 985.50 1011.50 16.10 50,142 March 1462.00 1482.75 1461.75 1477.25 15.75 170,451 March'23 163.85 164.85 159.05 160.20 –3.30 110,881 Swiss Franc (CME)-CHF 125,000; $ per CHF
Silver (CMX)-5,000 troy oz.; $ per troy oz. Soybean Meal (CBT)-100 tons; $ per ton. Sugar-World (ICE-US)-112,000 lbs.; cents per lb. Dec 1.0629 1.0693 1.0610 1.0657 .0027 38,914
Dec 22.605 22.775 22.500 22.710 0.587 2,077 Dec 453.10 464.10 s 448.80 462.20 13.00 469 March 19.45 19.54 19.27 19.48 .09 384,413 March'23 1.0729 1.0802 1.0719 1.0766 .0027 900
March'23 22.350 23.010 22.255 22.922 0.587 107,586 March'23 445.50 460.70 s 445.10 457.00 11.10 130,874 May 18.30 18.41 18.16 18.35 .07 192,314 Australian Dollar (CME)-AUD 100,000; $ per AUD
Crude Oil, Light Sweet (NYM)-1,000 bbls.; $ per bbl. Soybean Oil (CBT)-60,000 lbs.; cents per lb. Sugar-Domestic (ICE-US)-112,000 lbs.; cents per lb. Dec .6692 .6745 .6671 .6734 .0043 145,525
Jan 74.55 75.38 71.75 72.01 –2.24 256,212 Dec 64.20 64.78 63.92 63.15 –.72 284 Jan 36.60 –.13 167 March'23 .6722 .6769 .6697 .6758 .0042 12,873
Feb 74.73 75.53 72.06 72.28 –2.18 137,081 March'23 61.20 61.98 60.07 60.16 –.84 131,897 May 36.90 … 2,744 Mexican Peso (CME)-MXN 500,000; $ per MXN
March 75.05 75.66 72.33 72.52 –2.11 144,980 Rough Rice (CBT)-2,000 cwt.; $ per cwt. Cotton (ICE-US)-50,000 lbs.; cents per lb. Dec .05044 .05084 .05032 .05076 .00033 288,454
June 75.22 75.83 72.81 73.00 –1.91 123,218 Jan 16.82 16.88 16.65 16.71 –.13 5,458 Dec 82.61 –2.78 81 March'23 .04975 .05011 .04959 .05001 .00032 5,178
Dec 74.03 74.40 71.72 71.97 –1.69 166,733 March 17.17 17.23 17.01 17.08 –.12 1,601 March'23 84.59 85.08 81.17 81.83 –2.76 105,154 Euro (CME)-€125,000; $ per €
Dec'24 70.70 71.00 68.90 69.06 –1.41 63,402 Wheat (CBT)-5,000 bu.; cents per bu. Orange Juice (ICE-US)-15,000 lbs.; cents per lb. Dec 1.0474 1.0560 1.0453 1.0524 .0050 649,672
NY Harbor ULSD (NYM)-42,000 gal.; $ per gal. Dec 727.25 728.75 708.25 727.00 21.50 397 Jan 208.90 218.50 208.25 218.50 10.00 7,366 March'23 1.0543 1.0629 1.0521 1.0592 .0050 50,530
Jan 2.9177 2.9375 2.7647 2.7805 –.1350 60,686 March'23 732.25 756.25 726.25 749.50 20.50 184,018 March 202.80 210.00 202.00 208.75 6.25 3,004
March 2.8400 2.8587 2.7169 2.7256 –.1095 37,823 Wheat (KC)-5,000 bu.; cents per bu. Index Futures
Gasoline-NY RBOB (NYM)-42,000 gal.; $ per gal. Dec 866.00 866.00 866.00 864.50 18.75 98
March'23 832.00 853.50 828.75 848.75 18.75 86,216
Interest Rate Futures Mini DJ Industrial Average (CBT)-$5 x index
Jan 2.1546 2.1690 2.0698 2.0772 –.0719 90,477
Cattle-Feeder (CME)-50,000 lbs.; cents per lb. Ultra Treasury Bonds (CBT) - $100,000; pts 32nds of 100% Dec 33638 33818 33462 33625 –8 76,197
Dec 142-100 146-060 142-040 146-070 3-02.0 3,877 March'23 33876 34053 33702 33865 –11 5,527
March'23 142-230 146-120 142-060 146-100 3-01.0 1,420,823 Mini S&P 500 (CME)-$50 x index
Treasury Bonds (CBT)-$100,000; pts 32nds of 100% Dec 3944.50 3961.50 3914.00 3936.75 –8.25 2,140,167
March'23 3975.50 3992.50 3945.75 3967.75 –8.75 140,920
Cash Prices | wsj.com/market-data/commodities Wednesday, December 07, 2022 Dec 130-140 132-000
March'23 130-050 132-000
129-260 131-310 1-16.0 4,127
129-240 131-300 1-17.0 1,166,521 Mini S&P Midcap 400 (CME)-$100 x index
Treasury Notes (CBT)-$100,000; pts 32nds of 100% Dec 2479.10 2500.70 2467.00 2478.10 –4.10 44,171
These prices reflect buying and selling of a variety of actual or “physical” commodities in the marketplace— March'23 2498.70 2515.50 2485.40 2495.00 –4.80 46
Dec 114-025 114-290 113-260 114-275 24.5 14,327
separate from the futures price on an exchange, which reflects what the commodity might be worth in future March'23 114-075 115-065 114-020 115-050 25.5 3,761,077 Mini Nasdaq 100 (CME)-$20 x index
Dec 11566.00 11596.25 11422.50 11509.50 –56.50 239,590
months. 5 Yr. Treasury Notes (CBT)-$100,000; pts 32nds of 100%
March'23 11684.50 11707.75 11535.50 11622.50 –55.25 9,850
Wednesday Wednesday Wednesday Dec 108-160 109-065 108-160 109-062 17.7 6,278
March'23 108-285 109-170 108-255 109-160 17.7 4,124,044 Mini Russell 2000 (CME)-$50 x index
Iron Ore, 62% Fe CFR China-s 107.5 Wheat,Spring14%-pro Mnpls-u 11.4700 2 Yr. Treasury Notes (CBT)-$200,000; pts 32nds of 100% Dec 1814.00 1827.60 1803.40 1808.00 –6.10 472,405
Energy Shredded Scrap, US Midwest-s,m n.a. Wheat,No.2 soft red,St.Louis-u 7.1200 March'23 1830.90 1842.00 1818.30 1822.20 –6.60 10,035
Dec 102-156 102-233 102-148 102-218 6.7 11,048
Coal,C.Aplc.,12500Btu,1.2SO2-r,w 193.450 Steel, HRC USA, FOB Midwest Mill-s 670 Wheat - Hard - KC (USDA) $ per bu-u 9.0375 March'23 102-222 102-312 102-216 102-301 7.0 2,098,937 Mini Russell 1000 (CME)-$50 x index
Coal,PwdrRvrBsn,8800Btu,0.8SO2-r,w 15.850 Battery/EV metals Wheat,No.1soft white,Portld,OR-u 8.7000 30 Day Federal Funds (CBT)-$5,000,000; 100 - daily avg. Dec 2166.00 2171.80 2152.10 2158.50 –4.00 10,903
BMI Lithium Carbonate, EXW China, =99.2%-v,w 81375 Dec 95.8825 95.8850 95.8800 95.8825 .0000 250,751 U.S. Dollar Index (ICE-US)-$1,000 x index
Metals Food Dec 105.57 105.80 104.82 105.06 –.49 42,490
BMI Lithium Hydroxide, EXW China, =56.5% -v,w 80725 Jan'23 95.6450 95.6550 95.6450 95.6500 .0000 389,028
10 Yr. Del. Int. Rate Swaps (CBT)-$100,000; pts 32nds of 100% March'23 105.25 105.45 104.49 104.73 –.47 2,447
Gold, per troy oz BMI Cobalt sulphate, EXW China, >20.5% -v,m 8190 Beef,carcass equiv. index
BMI Nickel Sulphate, EXW China, >22%-v,m 5635 choice 1-3,600-900 lbs.-u 233.98 Dec 94-095 94-280 93-200 94-250 23.0 16,390
Engelhard industrial 1783.00
Handy & Harman base 1782.20 BMIFlakeGraphite,FOBChina,-100Mesh,94-95%-v,m 813 select 1-3,600-900 lbs.-u 208.31 Three-Month SOFR (CME)-$1,000,000; 100 - daily avg. Source: FactSet
Handy & Harman fabricated 1978.24 Broilers, National comp wtd. avg.-u,w 1.2529
Fibers and Textiles Butter,AA Chicago-d 2.8875
LBMA Gold Price AM *1773.35
LBMA Gold Price PM *1773.80 Burlap,10-oz,40-inch NY yd-n,w 0.7400 Cheddar cheese,bbl,Chicago-d 192.00 Bonds | wsj.com/market-data/bonds/benchmarks
Krugerrand,wholesale-e 1866.58 Cotton,1 1/16 std lw-mdMphs-u 0.8258 Cheddar cheese,blk,Chicago-d 210.75
Maple Leaf-e 1911.23 Cotlook 'A' Index-t *102.10 Milk,Nonfat dry,Chicago lb.-d 138.25
American Eagle-e
Mexican peso-e
1911.23
2304.37
Hides,hvy native steers piece fob-u
Wool,64s,staple,Terr del-u,w
n.a.
n.a.
Coffee,Brazilian,Comp-y
Coffee,Colombian, NY-y
1.6525
2.2038
Tracking Bond Benchmarks
Austria crown-e 1753.83 Eggs,large white,Chicago-u 4.2950 Return on investment and spreads over Treasurys and/or yields paid to investors compared with 52-week
Austria phil-e 1875.51 Grains and Feeds Flour,hard winter KC-p 21.35
Hams,17-20 lbs,Mid-US fob-u 0.91
highs and lows for different types of bonds
Silver, troy oz. Barley,top-quality Mnpls-u n.a. Total Total
253 Hogs,Iowa-So. Minnesota-u 82.82
Engelhard industrial 22.8000 Bran,wheat middlings, KC-u,w return YTD total return YTD total
6.3000 Pork bellies,12-14 lb MidUS-u n.a. Yield (%) Yield (%)
Handy & Harman base 22.6800 Corn,No. 2 yellow,Cent IL-bp,u close return (%) Index Latest Low High close return (%) Index Latest Low High
204.4 Pork loins,13-19 lb MidUS-u 1.1636
Handy & Harman fabricated 28.3500 Corn gluten feed,Midwest-u,w
n.a. Steers,Tex.-Okla. Choice-u 155.00 Mortgage-Backed Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices
LBMA spot price *£18.4600 Corn gluten meal,Midwest-u,w Broad Market Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices
393 Steers,feeder,Okla. City-u,w 194.25
(U.S.$ equivalent) *22.5400 Cottonseed meal-u,w
Coins,wholesale $1,000 face-a 22494 Hominy feed,Cent IL-u,w n.a. Fats and Oils 1994.94 -11.0 U.S. Aggregate 4.400 1.720 5.210 1978.01 -9.9 Mortgage-Backed 4.520 1.960 5.380
Other metals Meat-bonemeal,50% pro Mnpls-u,w 365 -9.0
Degummed corn oil, crude wtd. avg.-u,w 60.0000 U.S. Corporate Indexes Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices 1943.11 Ginnie Mae (GNMA) 4.620 1.990 5.370
LBMA Platinum Price PM *998.0 Oats,No.2 milling,Mnpls-u 4.1775
Rice, Long Grain Milled, No. 2 AR-u,w 36.13 Grease,choice white,Chicago-h 0.7250 -10.0
Platinum,Engelhard industrial 1011.0 2949.22 -13.5 U.S. Corporate 5.080 2.310 6.130 1165.17 Fannie mae (FNMA) 4.490 1.950 5.390
Sorghum,(Milo) No.2 Gulf-u n.a. Lard,Chicago-u n.a.
Palladium,Engelhard industrial 1858.0
SoybeanMeal,Cent IL,rail,ton48%-u,w 445.50 Soybean oil,crude;Centl IL-u,w 0.7016 2812.28 -8.5 Intermediate 5.050 1.810 6.050 1778.41 -10.7 Freddie Mac (FHLMC) 4.510 1.950 5.370
Aluminum, LME, $ per metric ton *2461.0 Tallow,bleach;Chicago-h 0.7400
Copper,Comex spot 3.8555 Soybeans,No.1 yllw IL-bp,u 14.5900
Tallow,edible,Chicago-u 0.7850 4027.90 -21.1 Long term 5.140 3.050 6.370 561.35 -6.8 Muni Master 3.083 0.895 3.936
578.60 -14.3 Double-A-rated 4.420 2.000 5.320 400.32 -5.9 7-12 year 2.824 0.918 3.794
KEY TO CODES: A=ask; B=bid; BP=country elevator bids to producers; C=corrected; D=CME; E=Manfra,Tordella & Brookes; H=American Commodities Brokerage Co;
K=bi-weekly; M=monthly; N=nominal; n.a.=not quoted or not available; P=Sosland Publishing; R=SNL Energy; S=Platts-TSI; T=Cotlook Limited; U=USDA; V=Benchmark 781.30 -13.7 Triple-B-rated 5.360 2.540 6.440 448.41 -8.8 12-22 year 3.579 1.180 4.428
Mineral Intelligence; W=weekly; Y=International Coffee Organization; Z=not quoted. *Data as of 12/6
Source: Dow Jones Market Data High Yield Bonds ICE BofA 419.67 -13.6 22-plus year 4.319 1.673 5.131
468.17 -10.3 High Yield Constrained 8.629 4.198 9.623 Global Government J.P. Morgan†
Borrowing Benchmarks | wsj.com/market-data/bonds/benchmarks 423.82 -15.9 Triple-C-rated 15.353 7.617 16.916 538.19 -10.2 Global Government 2.680 0.870 3.250
3144.13 -9.5 High Yield 100 7.909 3.669 8.753 786.38 -6.2 Canada 2.890 1.430 3.780
Money Rates December 7, 2022
408.37 -11.3 Global High Yield Constrained 8.682 4.601 9.945 353.14 -13.0 EMU§ 2.461 0.271 3.215
Key annual interest rates paid to borrow or lend money in U.S. and international markets. Rates below are a -13.4
312.11 -10.6 Europe High Yield Constrained 7.165 2.822 8.508 658.29 France 2.290 0.150 2.980
guide to general levels but don’t always represent actual transactions.
U.S Agency Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices 468.85 -12.7 Germany 1.730 -0.350 2.400
Week —52-WEEK— Week —52-WEEK—
Inflation Latest ago High Low Latest ago High Low 1701.04 -7.3 U.S Agency 4.360 1.090 4.910 282.01 -4.3 Japan 0.830 0.310 0.910
Oct. index Chg From (%)
level Sept. '22 Oct. '21 U.S. government rates Other short-term rates 1502.06 -6.1 10-20 years 4.360 0.990 4.890 510.51 -14.3 Netherlands 1.970 -0.200 2.720
Discount Week 52-Week 3338.39 -20.2 20-plus years 4.430 2.070 5.240 819.48 -21.0 U.K. 3.310 0.740 4.690
U.S. consumer price index Latest ago high low
All items 298.012 0.41 7.7 4.00 4.00 4.00 0.25 2571.91 -10.8 Yankee 4.940 1.950 5.840 774.83 -15.7 Emerging Markets ** 7.569 4.892 9.159
Core 299.315 0.29 6.3 Call money *Constrained indexes limit individual issuer concentrations to 2%; the High Yield 100 are the 100 largest bonds † In local currency § Euro-zone bonds
Federal funds
5.75 5.75 5.75 2.00 ** EMBI Global Index Sources: ICE Data Services; Bloomberg Fixed Income Indices; J.P.Morgan
International rates Effective rate 3.8400 3.8400 3.8400 0.0800
High 4.0500 4.0500 4.1000 0.0900 Commercial paper (AA financial)
Week 52-Week
Latest ago High Low
Low
Bid
3.8100
3.8300
3.8100
3.8300
3.8200
3.8300
0.0500
0.0600
90 days 4.57 4.49 4.63 0.13 Global Government Bonds: Mapping Yields
Offer 3.8500 3.8700 3.8800 0.0800
Libor Yields and spreads over or under U.S. Treasurys on benchmark two-year and 10-year government bonds in
Prime rates
One month 4.23614 4.14200 4.23614 0.10125
U.S. 7.00 7.00 7.00 3.25 Treasury bill auction Three month 4.72343 4.77857 4.77857 0.19825 selected other countries; arrows indicate whether the yield rose(s) or fell (t) in the latest session
Canada 5.95 5.95 5.95 2.45 Six month 5.17243 5.20343 5.22529 0.28813
4 weeks 3.950 3.970 3.970 0.020 Country/ Yield (%) Spread Under/Over U.S. Treasurys, in basis points
Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475 1.475 One year 5.52457 5.57157 5.66643 0.48875 Coupon (%) Maturity, in years Latest(l)-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Previous Month ago Year ago Latest Prev Year ago
13 weeks 4.270 4.285 4.285 0.055
Policy Rates 26 weeks 4.570 4.550 4.570 0.105 Secured Overnight Financing Rate 4.500 U.S. 2 4.256 t l 4.358 4.726 0.687
Euro zone 2.00 2.00 2.00 0.00 3.80 3.81 3.82 0.04 4.125 10 3.407 t l 3.512 4.212 1.479
Switzerland 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.00 Secondary market
Value 52-Week 0.250 Australia 2 3.084 s l 3.072 3.293 0.358 -115.8 -129.4 -33.7
Britain 3.00 3.00 3.00 0.10 Fannie Mae Latest Traded High Low 1.750 10 3.368 t l 3.410 3.918 1.655 -4.6 -12.4 17.9
Australia 3.10 2.85 3.10 0.10
30-year mortgage yields
DTCC GCF Repo Index 0.000 France 2 2.087 s l 2.072 2.281 -0.762 -215.4 -229.5 -145.7
Overnight repurchase 30 days 5.775 5.905 6.812 2.518 Treasury 3.804 33.468 3.842 0.023 2.000 10 2.246 t l 2.258 2.854 -0.027 -116.8 -127.5 -150.3
U.S. 3.82 3.77 3.85 0.01 60 days 5.802 5.924 6.988 2.556 MBS 3.862 27.850 3.895 0.032
2.200 Germany 2 2.008 t l 2.065 2.214 -0.702 -223.4 -230.2 -139.7
Notes on data: 1.700 10 1.786 t l 1.804 2.344 -0.374 -162.8 -173.0 -185.0
U.S. prime rate is the base rate on corporate loans posted by at least 70% of the 10 largest U.S. banks, and is effective November 3, 2022. Other prime
rates aren’t directly comparable; lending practices vary widely by location; Discount rate is effective November 3, 2022. Secured Overnight Financing 0.000 Italy 2 2.466 t l 2.551 2.909 -0.231 -177.6 -181.6 -92.6
Rate is as of December 6, 2022. DTCC GCF Repo Index is Depository Trust & Clearing Corp.'s weighted average for overnight trades in applicable CUSIPs.
Value traded is in billions of U.S. dollars. Federal-funds rates are Tullett Prebon rates as of 5:30 p.m. ET. 2.500 10 3.615 t l 3.660 4.472 0.916 20.1 12.7 -56.0
Sources: Federal Reserve; Bureau of Labor Statistics; DTCC; FactSet; 0.005 Japan 2 -0.009 s l -0.015 -0.039 -0.114 -425.1 -438.1 -81.0
Tullett Prebon Information, Ltd.
0.200 10 0.255 s l 0.253 0.258 0.055 -315.9 -328.1 -142.1
0.000 Spain 2 2.223 t l 2.275 2.376 -0.593 -201.8 -209.2 -128.8
Macro & Market Economics 2.550 10 2.764 t l 2.807 3.360 0.341 -65.0 -72.6 -113.5
0.125 U.K. 2 3.230 t l 3.245 3.190 0.464 -101.2 -112.2 -23.2
Watching the Gauges: U.S. Supply and Demand 4.250 10 3.046 t l 3.081 3.632 0.735 -36.9 -45.2 -74.1
Inventories, imports and demand for the week ended December 2. Current figures are in thousands of barrels Source: Tullett Prebon, Tradeweb ICE U.S. Treasury Close
or thousands of gallons per day, except natural-gas figures, which are in billions of cubic feet. Natural-gas
import and demand data are available monthly only. Corporate Debt
Prices of firms' bonds reflect factors including investors' economic, sectoral and company-specific
Inventories, 000s barrels Imports, 000s barrels per day expectations
Expected Previous Year 4-week 5-year Expected Previous Year 4-week 5-year Investment-grade spreads that tightened the most…
Current change week ago avg avg Current change week ago avg avg Spread*, in basis points
Issuer Symbol Coupon (%) Yield (%) Maturity Current One-day change Last week
Crude oil and Cummins CMI 6.750 4.91 Feb. 15, ’27 121 –19 n.a.
petroleum prod 1,217,189 ... 1,211 1,226 1,216 1,262 8,331 ... 7,946 8,472 8,200 9,072 Kimberly–Clark KMB 6.375 4.81 Jan. 1, ’28 111 –16 n.a.
Crude oil UBS UBS 4.125 5.14 April 15, ’26 142 –13 n.a.
excluding SPR 413,898 -1,400 419 433 425 451 6,012 ... 6,037 6,499 6,168 6,746 Wells Fargo WFC 3.900 5.04 May 1, ’45 134 –13 140
Gasoline 219,087 ... 214 219 213 231 519 ... 535 558 553 542 BNP Paribas BNP 3.375 5.09 Jan. 9, ’25 107 –11 n.a.
Finished gasoline 15,502 1,500 17 18 16 23 119 ... 112 10 124 39 Eaton ETN 4.000 4.58 Nov. 2, ’32 116 –11 122
Reformulated 26 ... 0 0 0 0 0 ... 0 0 0 0 Wisconsin Power and Light … 6.375 5.48 Aug. 15, ’37 202 –11 n.a.
Bank of America BAC 3.500 4.61 April 19, ’26 94 –9 103
Conventional 15,476 ... 17 18 16 23 119 ... 112 10 124 39
Blend. components 203,586 ... 197 202 197 207 400 ... 423 547 429 503 …And spreads that widened the most
Natural gas (bcf) 3,483 ... 4 4 4 3 ... ... ... ... ... ... Blackstone Private Credit Fund BCRED 7.050 7.42 Sept. 29, ’25 343 65 n.a.
PG&E PCG 3.150 5.61 Jan. 1, ’26 189 20 n.a.
Kerosene-type
Celanese CE 6.050 6.11 March 15, ’25 208 19 215
jet fuel 37,972 ... 36 37 37 38 52 ... 149 45 111 205 17 34
Caterpillar Financial Services … 3.650 4.45 Aug. 12, ’25 43
Distillates 118,807 800 113 127 112 130 372 ... 152 269 189 328
UBS UBS 4.125 5.05 Sept. 24, ’25 103 16 116
Heating oil 7,946 ... 9 8 9 9 0 ... 0 31 0 21 15 515
Credit Suisse CS 3.750 8.92 March 26, ’25 490
Diesel 110,862 ... 104 118 103 60 372 ... 152 238 189 306 HSBC Holdings HSBC 4.300 5.39 March 8, ’26 165 12 150
Residual fuel oil 28,998 ... 30 27 29 30 233 ... 180 185 175 226 Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria BBVASM 1.125 5.23 Sept. 18, ’25 115 11 112
Other oils 285,491 ... 286 290 288 285 989 ... 697 779 868 860
Net crude, petroleum
High-yield issues with the biggest price increases…
Bond Price as % of face value
products, incl. SPR 1,604,208 ... 1,600 1,827 1,606 1,898 -1,394 ... -3,830 939 -2,129 1,173 Issuer Symbol Coupon (%) Yield (%) Maturity Current One-day change Last week
Kohl's KSS 6.000 8.07 Jan. 15, ’33 85.875 2.38 n.a.
Weekly Demand, 000s barrels per day 1.25 51.328
Natural gas storage WeWork
Sprint Capital
WEWORK
…
7.875
6.875
42.89
5.60
May 1, ’25
Nov. 15, ’28
50.500
106.367 0.93 105.961
Expected Previous Year 4-week 5-year Billions of cubic feet; weekly totals Ford Motor Credit … 3.370 6.06 Nov. 17, ’23 97.580 0.71 96.921
Current change week ago avg avg 97.310
Barclays BACR 5.200 5.94 May 12, ’26 97.738 0.70
American Airlines AAL 11.750 7.79 July 15, ’25 109.138 0.54 111.115
Total petroleum 93.535
4250 Hughes Satellite Systems SATS 6.625 8.39 Aug. 1, ’26 94.530 0.53
product 19,626 ... 19,717 19,837 20,077 21,565 Liberty Interactive LINTA 8.250 21.57 Feb. 1, ’30 52.500 0.50 51.000
Finished Five-year average 3250 …And with the biggest price decreases
for each week
motor gasoline 8,358 ... 8,317 8,963 8,436 9,105 t Toledo Hospital TOLHOS 6.015 9.25 Nov. 15, ’48 68.391 –4.61 73.125
Kerosene-type 2250 Telecom Italia Capital TITIM 6.375 9.18 Nov. 15, ’33 80.880 –1.62 82.562
t American Airlines AAL 3.750 10.86 March 1, ’25 86.250 –1.09 87.500
jet fuel 1,386 ... 1,731 1,220 1,570 1,701 Natural gas, Lumen Technologies LUMN 7.600 12.12 Sept. 15, ’39 67.890 –0.98 70.000
1250
Distillates 3,550 ... 3,656 3,578 3,729 4,366 lower 48 states Transocean RIG 6.800 12.40 March 15, ’38 62.000 –0.78 63.000
Residual fuel oil 438 ... 284 509 321 392 Dish DBS … 5.875 8.89 Nov. 15, ’24 94.750 –0.75 94.250
250 QVC QVCN 4.850 8.22 April 1, ’24 95.875 –0.37 95.327
Propane/propylene 1,293 ... 910 1,615 1,005 ... D J F M A M J J A S O N –0.28 93.194
Intelsat Jackson Holdings INTEL 6.500 8.07 March 15, ’30 91.500
Other oils 4,602 ... 4,820 3,952 5,017 ... 2022
*Estimated spread over 2-year, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year or 30-year hot-run Treasury; 100 basis points=one percentage pt.; change in spread shown is for Z-spread.
Note: Expected changes are provided by Dow Jones Newswires' survey of analysts. Previous and average inventory data are in millions. Note: Data are for the most active issue of bonds with maturities of two years or more
Sources: FactSet; Dow Jones Market Data; U.S. Energy Information Administration; Dow Jones Newswires Source: MarketAxess
B10 | Thursday, December 8, 2022 * * THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
WOLFGANG RATTAY/REUTERS
what more positive on Europe, snapped up European assets. one of the EU’s biggest trading
spurring a recovery in the re- In a marker of that interna- partners. BY PAUL KIERNAN
gion’s beaten-down stocks. tional appetite, flows into ex- “One of the sectors in which
As of Wednesday’s close, the change-traded funds holding I see a lot of upside potential in WASHINGTON—The Securi-
benchmark Euro Stoxx 50 index eurozone-based stocks, but Europe is the automobile sec- ties and Exchange Commission
had gained 18% this quarter, which are denominated in tor,” Mr. Kaloyan said. signaled plans to issue four pro-
putting it on track for the best other currencies, rose to the He expects supply-chain posals next week that aim to
quarterly performance since highest monthly level since Siemens Energy was among the energy shares that saw gains. conditions to keep improving. help small investors get better
2009. The rise for the index, early 2021 last month, Nomura Europe’s major car makers in- prices on their stock trades.
which includes eurozone blue analysis showed. Index performance, Foreign flows into clude Volkswagen AG and The SEC said Wednesday its
chips like L’Oréal SA and LVMH The annual eurozone infla- past six months eurozone ETFs* Stellantis NV. five-member commission will
Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton tion rate declined in Novem- 5% $600 million Conditions in the credit consider proposing the rules
SE, compares with a 9.9% gain ber for the first time since markets have improved, with a in an open meeting Dec. 14. If
for the S&P 500. mid-2021, falling to 10%, from Euro decline in spreads, or the extra a majority of the panel, which
Stoxx 50 400
The mood has brightened af- 10.6% in October. A pullback in yields compared with a bench- includes Chair Gary Gensler
ter a period of extreme pessi- oil and other energy prices 0 mark that investors demand to and two other Democrats, sup-
mism about Europe, brought on helped. Natural-gas prices 200 hold riskier bonds. port the proposals, they will
by the invasion of Ukraine, a have stabilized as Europe’s gas The spread on an ICE BofA be opened to public comment
subsequent jump in energy storage has risen above 95% –5 0 index of bonds in euros issued before the SEC decides
prices and the highest inflation due to imports of liquefied- by industrial companies nar- whether to finalize them.
in decades. Russia was the big- natural gas, reducing the risk rowed to 1.6 percentage points The proposals are a key ele-
–200
gest energy supplier to the Eu- of an energy crunch. above a benchmark. That is ment of Mr. Gensler’s policy
ropean Union, rendering the re- Investors now expect the –10 down from 2.1 points at the agenda. He has repeatedly said
gion vulnerable to shocks from European Central Bank’s key –400 end of September, but above U.S. equity markets can be im-
Western sanctions. policy rate to reach 2.8% next the average 1.1 percentage proved for ordinary investors
Market sentiment is being summer, market prices sug- –15 S&P 500 –600 point over the past 10 years. who often pay no commissions
lifted by early signs of inflation gest, down from forecasts of July 2022 Dec. April 2022 July Nov. Some remain cautious about for trading but face other, more-
easing in the eurozone and more than 3% a month ago. the region’s prospects, for ex- opaque, costs. In a June speech
*Shows flows into exchange-traded funds that contain
hopes that the scramble for al- As in the U.S., where con- eurozone stocks but are denominated in other currencies. ample if the Russia-Ukraine war he outlined a series of potential
ternatives to Russian natural sumer-price inflation has also Sources: FactSet (performance); Nomura (flows) drives more volatility in energy regulatory changes that SEC
gas has reduced the risk of an eased, investors are hoping cen- prices and inflation. staff were drafting.
energy crisis this winter, inves- tral bankers won’t have to winning the war against infla- ing stocks in Europe this quar- “The rally that we have Most small investors, when
tors and analysts said. tighten financial conditions so tion, and at some point, we’re ter are in the industrial sector. seen was followed by the opti- they place an order with their
Meanwhile, benchmark U.S. aggressively that they trigger a going to see a pause from the These companies were among mistic view that the energy broker to buy or sell shares, pay
yields and the dollar have de- deep recession. In turn, expec- central banks. This is something the hardest-hit by the disrup- crunch might not be as bad as little heed to what happens
clined in recent weeks, helping tations of a milder downturn that will drive the market tions to gas supplies and jump we feared,” said Antonio Cava- next. Sometimes the broker
lift riskier assets worldwide, as and cheaper capital available to higher,” said Roland Kaloyan, in energy prices, with many rero, head of investments at sends the order to a public ex-
investors anticipate a slowdown companies are boosting Euro- head of European equity strat- companies temporarily shut- Generali Insurance Asset Man- change like the New York Stock
in the Federal Reserve’s cam- pean stock and bond markets. egy at Société Générale. ting factories or reducing pro- agement. “But Europe is still Exchange, which matches it
paign to raise interest rates. “The Fed and the ECB are Some of the best-perform- duction. very much exposed.” with a counterparty. But in
many cases, brokers sell their
customers’ orders to high-speed
STREETWISE | By James Mackintosh trading firms such as Citadel
Securities or Virtu Financial
Inc., which profit from the small
China Reopening Risks Repeat of World’s Woes difference between the buying
and selling price of the stock.
Mr. Gensler says the practice,
known as payment for order
Thursday Forward price/earnings ratio* WTI crude-oil futures price China’s new Covid the Hong Kong Stock Con- flow, represents a conflict of in-
marks two cases, 10-day 35,000 nect program dropped terest for brokers, which are re-
24 times $125 a barrel
years since moving average* sharply from August up to quired to act in the best interest
the Covid-19 MSCI USA October, too. of their customers. He left open
22 100 30,000
vaccination Against that, the sheer the possibility of banning it in a
drive began, scale of the unexpected 2021 interview that dinged the
20 75
yet both the U.S. and the 25,000 swings in goods, services stock price of Robinhood Mar-
world economy continue to and asset prices experienced kets Inc., one of the many bro-
be dominated by issues cre- 18 50 in the U.S. should make us kers that rely on the practice to
ated by the pandemic. The 20,000 wary of predictions for offer zero-commission trad-
uncertainty is about to get 16 25 China’s recovery. ing. Virtu and Citadel Securities,
worse, as China starts the Whether it was the slide in as well as brokers that accept
joy, pain and eventual ca- 14 0 15,000 oil prices from briefly nega- payment for order flow, say the
tharsis of reopening. tive to above $120 a barrel, stock market’s current rules
Markets have been betting 12 –25 the quintupling and fall in work well for small investors.
on the short-term benefits of 10,000 shipping rates and lumber fu- They have campaigned against
10 MSCI China A Onshore –50
reopening since rumors of tures, or the bubble-that- major changes by the SEC.
the policy change began. The 2020 ’21 ’22 2020 ’21 ’22 popped in lossmaking technol- Mr. Gensler has since backed
renminbi has enjoyed its 5,000 ogy stocks, these swings all away from a ban, saying more
best five-week gain against came as a surprise. recently that he wants to in-
the dollar since internation- crease transparency and compe-
W
0
alization in 1994 and domes- orse, China may de- tition in the business of execut-
tic stocks jumped about 10%. Feb. 2020 ’21 ’22 serve its discount to ing stock trades.
the U.S., much of The proposals on next week’s
T
*As of Tuesday Sources: Refinitiv IBES (P/E ratio); FactSet (WTI); Our World in Data (Covid cases)
he danger is a repeat which is caused not by con- agenda include an “order com-
of the economic, finan- tion. Its initial support ery in demand is unlikely to be a repeat of the U.S. expe- cern about Covid policy but petition rule.” That would re-
cial and political package was small by com- be sudden, as China is re- rience of opting out of the by fears about geopolitics, the quire some trades by individual
swings that created a boom- parison, at 5% of GDP opening more cautiously workforce that worsened the lack of rule of law and the investors “to be exposed to
bust cycle in the rest of the against 26% in the U.S. by than elsewhere—not least shortage of people available structural problem of its im- competition in fair and open
world. Stocks are back below September 2021, according because few people have im- to fill jobs. ploding housing developers. auctions before they could be
where they stood when Mar- to the International Mone- munity to the virus. As Covid “Because there’s been no While China’s valuations executed internally by any trad-
garet Keenan, a pensioner in tary Fund. Since then the spreads and hospitals fill up, checks in the mail and peo- have fallen a lot, they are al- ing center that restricts order-
Coventry, England, became government has steered consumers may stay cautious ple have had to suffer in most exactly in line with by-order competition,” the SEC
the first to be officially vac- clear of major stimulus. even if governments don’t terms of their income it’s where they stood before the meeting notice said.
cinated. Because households don’t reimpose lockdowns. not easy for people to decide pandemic, as is the discount The Wall Street Journal de-
There are three reasons to have stimulus checks burn- Second, and relatedly, that they don’t want to come to the U.S. tailed some of the contours of
think China’s economy may be ing holes in their pockets, China has plenty of spare ca- back to the labor force,” says On the face of it, the open- that idea, which seeks to ensure
less vulnerable to the troubles the rebound is likely to be pacity in the economy to ex- Tao Wang, chief China econ- ing up of the world’s second- that small investors get better
that hit the rest of the world. less strong. This should pand services that do see a omist at UBS. biggest economy is good for prices when buying or selling
But that doesn’t make the make it easier for airlines, spike in demand, thanks to stocks everywhere, pushing stocks, in October.
M
country’s stocks the obvious hotels and restaurants to high youth unemployment any investors have up demand and removing re- Additionally, the SEC plans to
bargain many think. Nor does meet higher demand. There and damage to small busi- focused on China be- strictions on supply. consider proposing a “best exe-
it mean that China’s reopen- has also been less of a boom nesses. Global pressures will ing unloved, which is But adding to global de- cution” regulation for broker-
ing won’t be disruptive to the in stuff bought by those probably be less severe, too, usually a good sign. MSCI’s mand—especially in oil— dealers. Such a rule would re-
rest of the world. working from home, mean- as China’s reopening comes measure of domestic stocks makes it even harder for quire brokers to take steps to
First, China hasn’t had the ing less need to rotate pro- as growth in the rest of the trades at 12 times forecast central banks elsewhere try- ensure that they send investor
government stimulus that duction capacity back out of world is slowing, which is 12-month earnings, against ing to cool their economies. orders to the trading venue that
supported the post-lockdown exercise bikes and laptops likely to ease pressure on oil 18 times for the U.S., even China’s reopening may be offers the best available price to
rebounds in the U.S. and Eu- than was seen in developed prices and other essential after the recent gains. less messy than the West’s, their customers—meaning the
rope and underpinned red- countries. imports. Foreign interest in Chi- but has plenty of potential to highest price for a seller or the
hot job markets and infla- On top of that, the recov- Third, there is unlikely to nese shares bought through disrupt. lowest price for a buyer.
MARKETS
Trust your
source.
Trust your
decisions.
© 2022 Dow Jones & Co., Inc. All rights reserved. 6DJ8653
B12 | Thursday, December 8, 2022 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.
HEARD STREET ON
THE
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY
RECESSION
pandemic travel market booms
despite inflation and fears of a re-
cession, but manufacturers are
struggling to ship their products to
7%-9%
Expected growth in organic sales for
-1,000
bor have saddled aerospace suppli- airlines and lessors. Most econo- the company’s fiscal year
ers, particularly engine makers. 1990 ’95 2000 ’05 ’10 ’15 ’20 mists expect a recession in the U.S.
More recently, another round of Source: the companies and Europe early next year, which
factory shutdowns in China, as well historically hits not only orders but
as bad weather stalling flight tests firmed in recent weeks. Neverthe- target from 720 back in July. On also deliveries. While many outright a year earlier. And the company
in Europe, have added to the woes. less, the median delivery forecast Tuesday, the company also guided cancellations seem less likely this raised guidance for sales and earn-
Shares of Airbus fell almost 3% compiled by Visible Alpha was 698 expectations toward a slower in- time around, there is always the ings per share for its full fiscal
Wednesday. Those of its American before the announcement, suggest- crease in production of its bestsell- risk that the downturn will be year through July. It now expects
rival Boeing had closed the previ- ing some brokers hoped for a big ing A320 narrow-body jet. deeper than feared. Crucially, most organic sales growth of 7% to 9%
ous day down 3.6%. end-of-year push. Part of this is just the 2022 delay cash is paid only when planes are for the period, up from a forecast
Many sell-side analysts already Misses are rare in the aerospace pushing back the timeline. But it delivered. given just three months earlier of
thought Airbus Chief Executive industry. Markets are taking this may also indicate that supply-chain Airbus and Boeing do benefit 4%-to-6% growth.
Guillaume Faury should have toned one mostly as a sign that the normalization, which Mr. Faury from yearslong order backlogs. Campbell shares rose 6% on
down his delivery aspirations when broader industry’s supply-chain hoped would happen by the end of Missing the right delivery window Wednesday. They are up 22% this
he reported third-quarter earnings snags are here to stay, which is why 2023, could take longer. to cash in, however, could be more year, making them one of the best-
at the end of October, and their sus- Boeing’s stock has been affected as The news wasn’t all bad: Airbus than a short-term headwind. performing food stocks in a strong
picions were progressively con- well. Airbus already cut its annual didn’t change its financial guidance, —Jon Sindreu year for the category. The S&P 500
was down 17%.
During times of inflation or
other economic stress, it is normal
TSMC’s U.S. Chip Gambit Has Powerful Backers for consumers to turn more to
cooking at home and value-tier
products like condensed soup. His-
tory suggests small indulgences
like chips and cookies have been
“American manufacturing is resilient during downturns.
back,” President Biden said Tues- But there is a bit more than that
day as he visited the new Arizona going on here. Campbell’s success in
site of Taiwan Semiconductor pushing through wave after wave of
Manufacturing Co. That sentiment price increases wouldn’t have been
may yet prove premature—but the possible without the work Mr.
Taiwanese chip maker’s latest com- Clouse has done since taking over
mitment to building on American in January 2019 to renovate its
soil is still something to celebrate. brands and improve their image.
One key takeaway from Tues- In condensed soups, this has in-
day’s event: TSMC’s major U.S. cluded redesigning the can labels
customers appear to be telegraph- to give them a more modern look,
CAITLIN O’HARA/BLOOMBERG NEWS