COVID 19 ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS FOR AGRICULTURE, FOOD, AND RURAL

LIVELIHOOD. A CASE STUDY OF SSEMBABULE DISTRICT.

Introduction

COVID-19 has wreaked havoc on the global economy, with restrictions on domestic and
international travel resulting in widespread unemployment and GDP shifts. All sectors of the
economy have taken a hit, with flight numbers dropping by double digits, tourism suffering
severe damage, and oil prices falling to levels not seen in two decades. Although agriculture
received less attention early in the pandemic than other sectors of the economy (such as aviation
and tourism), Yaffe-Bellany and Corkery (2020) point out that the closure of restaurants, hotels,
and schools left some farmers with no buyers for more than half of their produce.

In Uganda, the agriculture sector is the bedrock of the economy, accounting for 24 percent of
GDP and gradually declining as the primary source of income for 70 percent of the population
(76% rural; poverty prevalence far higher in rural areas [27% ] than in urban (9 %) provides
more than half of export earnings (excluding gold) source of raw materials for industries: agro-
processing accounts for 60% of manufacturing Agricultural production differs from
manufacturing due to land and other biological requirements for primary agriculture; seasonal
demand for low-skilled labor, particularly for fruit and vegetable production; and seasonality
(Charlton and Castillo 2020; Luckstead, Nayga Jr, and Snell 2020). This is especially important
if growers are unable to find a market for their crops, as most cannot be planted until the
following year. Changes in livestock decisions could be felt this year or next, but they could also
be felt in the future.

Background of the study

The COVID-19 global pandemic began affecting countries in Africa and Latin America in early
2020, after spreading through East Asia, Europe, and North America. With the largest population
in Sub-Saharan Africa and long-standing travel and trade links within Africa and to the rest of
the world, the pandemic seemed unavoidable. The novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has
rapidly spread around the world, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions. Uganda
reported its first infection on March 21, 2020, prompting authorities to quickly implement
various measures to halt the spread of the epidemic following the closure of educational
institutions. Given that the disease is highly contagious, the much-needed nationwide lockdown
was enforced starting on 18 May 2020 to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. During
the initial few weeks, the restrictions were strict and all non-essential activities and businesses,
including retail establishments, and places of religious worship, across the country were
prohibited from operating. Subsequently, these restrictions are being gradually eased in a phased
manner in most parts of the country.

Just as the physical symptoms of the virus differ from person to person, emerging data on the
pandemic's economic and social impacts show significant differences in impacts across
socioeconomic groups, genders, occupations, regions, and countries (Bene et al, 2020; Egger et
al., 2021; Bundervoet et al., 2021). The impact of the pandemic on rural people is an important
but underappreciated aspect of the pandemic. During the early stages of the crisis, some
predicted that rural areas would be spared the worst effects because lockdown measures were
primarily focused on urban areas and food and agriculture-related activities were generally
exempted (The Economist 2020; Reardon 2020). As the restrictions imposed due to the
lockdown are being lifted, it is an opportune moment to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on
different sectors of the economy. Several reports have pointed towards the possibility of
contraction of Indian GDP in 2020-21. This is a worrisome indication since a higher GDP
contributes immensely towards achieving better living standards, reduced poverty as well as
improvement in other socio-economic indicators. While other sectors are reported to be under
significant stress, it is important to analyze the impact on agricultural and allied sectors which
provide the likelihood to most of the Ugandan population.

The arrival of the pandemic set off a chain of policy actions, including public health and
education campaigns, fiscal and monetary measures, restrictions on large sections of the
economy, and compensating measures in the form of social protection for poor and vulnerable
people (Onyekwena and Amara Mma, 2020). The sudden onset of the pandemic and the scale of
policy responses imposed significant economic costs on Uganda's population, but the nature of
the impacts on food systems and the poor remains unclear. However, as the pandemic persists
and new evidence emerges, it is becoming clear that rural spaces, including those in developing
countries, are experiencing substantial economic hardship because of the pandemic (Egger et al
2021; Bundervoet et al., 2021; Bene et al, 2021; Josephson et al. 2020;). In addition, the
economic impacts are assessed in terms of their effects on national gross domestic product
(GDP), agri-food system GDP, and the number of people living below the international
US$1.90-a-day poverty line.

Status of the rural areas in developing countries

Several reports indicated that more than 250 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa faced severe
food insecurity, farmer incomes were lower in real terms than anywhere else in the world
(United Nations), and more than 30% of children were stunted, owing to poverty and poor diets
(FAO et al. 2020). The World Food Programme has since warned that COVID-19 could cause
one of the worst global food crises in history (FSIN 2020; Anthem 2020). As progress in
combating hunger slows, the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbates the vulnerabilities and
inadequacies of Africa's food systems – defined as "all the elements (environment, people,
inputs, processes, infrastructures, institutions, etc.) and activities related to the production,
processing, distribution, preparation, and consumption of food and nutrition’s, including
socioeconomic and environmental outcomes.

Despite Uganda's low infection rate, some response measures, such as the lockdown, night
curfew, and closed borders, have significantly disrupted economic activity. While many
restrictions have now been lifted in part, the rapid growth in the number of new infections has
forced the government to keep some districts under lockdown, with another nationwide total
lockdown on the horizon. With some lockdown measures still in place, the socioeconomic
consequences of Covid-19 are disproportionately affecting the poorest members of society. In
Uganda, the informal sector is primarily made up of micro and small businesses (MSEs). It
accounts for half of the economy and employs 98 percent of the working-age population. This
sector has been one of the hardest hits, with people engaged in trading, services, and hospitality
most affected by Covid-19 restrictions. The direct impact of Covid-19 has caused the loss of jobs
and incomes, with worst cases of MSE owners experiencing incomes falling below zero,
resulting in the discontinuation of their business activities. It is estimated that about 23% of the
urban poor could have lost 100% of their daily income during and after the lockdown. The MSEs
that remain afloat are facing worse credit and liquidity constraints than they did before the
pandemic. As a result, the socioeconomic consequences of Covid-19 currently outweigh the
positive health impact of limiting its spread
Closure of the international market.

Asia and Europe are Uganda’s major trading partners, and the effects of coronavirus were also
being felt in Uganda. For instance, when China shut down its manufacturing centers and closed
its ports, there was a resultant decrease in demand for Uganda’s commodities. Importers in China
were canceling orders from Uganda due to port closures and because of the reduction in
consumption in China. This resulted in a reduction in the demand for the country’s exports which
are mainly agricultural commodities and natural resources.

The disruption in global supply chains because of factory global lockdown due to the covid 19,
many small and medium enterprises in Uganda were not operating. This sector constitutes 13%
of Uganda’s economy (Lakuma, P.C et al., 2020). Nearly 20% of all the goods traded in this
sector are imported outside Uganda. This resulted in the loss of jobs for most of the people that
used to depend on these factories to earn a living thus making them incapable of buying their
food. Uganda’s economic performance is influenced by developments in the global economic
environment. Therefore, a slowdown in the global economy because of coronavirus
automatically negatively impacted Uganda’s economy.

In Uganda, rural economies and livelihoods do not operate in isolation from urban areas and
national and global economies (Bird, K., McKay, A., & Shinyekwa, I. 2010). However, rural
spaces are interwoven into national and global markets through complex networks of production,
trade, migration, and remittance flows. These linkages, combined with disproportionately higher
levels of pre-pandemic poverty and food insecurity, make rural places and rural livelihoods
acutely vulnerable to adverse economic impacts of the pandemic (Bordi, D., et al., 2020).
Moreover, informality is a key feature of rural life in many countries. As a result, rural people
are less likely to have access to contributory social insurance (e.g., health insurance,
unemployment benefits) and to other services, such as credit and insurance, which help to reduce
the livelihood risks of the pandemic. Of course, the degree of integration of rural spaces into
global/national markets, pre-pandemic poverty and food insecurity rates, and institutional
capacity is highly variable. This variability is reflected by the maturation and complexity of a
country’s food system.
Statement of the problem

The COVID-19 pandemic led to widespread economic and social disruptions around the world.
Aside from the risk of contracting a contagious and lethal virus, a large portion of the world's
population continued to face job losses and income reductions. Global poverty projections (based
on World Bank Povcal Net and International Monetary Fund (IMF) data indicated that by 2020,
the number of people living below the $1.90 per day poverty line had increased by at least 68
million, while those living below the $3.20 per day poverty line increased by at least 140 million
(Valensisi, 2020). This clearly shows that the COVID-19 pandemic affected a variety of
countries’ economies, but some countries felt the impact more than others.

Prior to Covid 19, Uganda's economy grew at a slower rate, lessening the impact on poverty. The
average annual growth rate in the five years to 2016 was 4.5 percent, compared to 7 percent in
the previous years (Lokuruka, M. N. 2020). Nonetheless, an examination of the supply and
demand aspects of various industries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic reveals that the health
crisis has had a significant impact on demand and supply. The measures taken by governments to
halt the virus's spread impacted demand for a variety of agricultural products. Many people
engaged in agricultural activities, particularly in rural areas, have remained outside of
agribusiness market systems. Since most of them practice subsistence agriculture that makes
meager returns to their livelihood and economic status.

As the COVID-19's effects are felt around the world, there is a need to address the vulnerabilities
of the poor and marginalized. In rural and agriculture-dependent economies, the farm sector is
frequently the most severely impacted during times of crisis, owing to a lack of access to risk and
loss mitigation measures, as well as limited access to government assistance. Against this
backdrop, the researcher set out to comprehend the covid 19 economic implications for
agriculture, food, and rural livelihood, as well as how this can transform Uganda's economy and
improve people's well-being. As a result, it is critical to conduct this research to identify new
strategies, opportunities, and innovations that could help.
Purpose of the study

The main purpose of the study is to evaluate the COVID 19 economic implications on
agriculture, food, and rural livelihood. a case study of the central Ssembabule district.

Specific objectives

To explore the severity to which Covid 19 has victimized people's livelihoods and food security
in rural areas., a case study of the Ssembabule district.

To ascertain the extent to which Covid 19 has influenced agricultural activities in rural areas, a
case study of the Ssembabule district.

To examine the various strategies used with rural people to cope with the consequences of the
Covid-19 global pandemic.

Research hypothesis

Ha; Covid 19 had a significant implication on agriculture, food, and rural livelihood.

H1; Covid 19 had no significant implication on agriculture, food, and rural livelihood.

Scope of the study

Geographical scope

The study will be carried out in the district of Ssembabule. Sembabule District is bordered by
Mubende District to the north, Gomba District to the northeast, Bukomansimbi District to the
east, Lwengo District to the south, Lyantonde District to the southwest, and Kiruhura District to
the northwest. Sembabule, where the district headquarters are located, is approximately 48
kilometers (30 miles), by road; northwest of Masaka, the largest town in the sub-region.

The study will be conducted specifically in this district because of its ethnic mix, which includes
the Baganda, who dominate the more agricultural southern areas, and the Banyankole (Bahima)
pastoralists, who dominate the semi-arid sub-counties of Rwemiyaga and Ntuusi in the district's
northern part (Kaliisa, R. 2012). The district is overwhelmingly rural, with extremely limited
infrastructure and services. Agricultural production and animal husbandry are central to the local
economy.
Content scope

The study's goal will be to assess the economic implications of COVID 19 on agriculture, food,
and rural livelihood. The study's objective is to investigate the extent to which Covid 19 has
harmed people's livelihoods and food security in rural areas. It will also determine how much
Covid 19 has affected agricultural activities in rural areas. In addition, investigate the various
strategies used by rural people to deal with the effects of the Covid-19 global pandemic.

Justification of the study

Agriculture is the bedrock of the Ugandan economy, accounting for 24 percent of GDP, which is
gradually declining. It is the primary source of income for 70% of the population 76% rural;
poverty is far more prevalent in rural areas 27% than in urban areas 9%, accounts for more than
half of export earnings (excluding gold) and serves as a source of raw materials for industries.
Agro-processing accounts for 60% of total manufacturing. However, covid 19 has affected the
local farmer’s livelihood.

This study will help to determine the extent to which the agricultural activities have been
affected by the Covid 19 pandemic. It will address the issues of farmers’ standards of living and
how they are overcoming them. The study findings will be potentially important as they will
guide future studies that will be done about these variables in other geographical settings.
Therefore, this study will add useful insights to the pool of knowledge about the study subject.

This study will contribute to the academic understanding of how pandemic attributes vary across
individuals. Most preference studies never considered the possibility that people make decisions
under different conditions/circumstances. This study will not only determine which attributes
consumers prefer, but it will also attempt to determine whether there are differences in
preferences among consumers. However, the sources of those differences will not be investigated
in this study.