Thesis Group 4 Example Research Methodology Assignment

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Thesis Group 4 - Example research methodology assignment
Research Methodology (Universiti Teknologi MARA)
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FACULTY OF BUSINESS MANAGEMENT
BACHELOR OF BUSSINESS ADMINISTRATIVE IN FINANCE (BA242)
RESEARCH TITLE
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MACROECONOMICS VARIABLES AND MONEY

SUPPLY IN ASIA
MGT646
GROUP 4 – BA242 (5A)
PREPARED FOR:
DR. ZETTY ZAHUREEN
PREPARED BY:
NURUL ARDINI BT ZAINAL (2018441436)

NURUL AINA BT RAHMAT (2018425326)
NUR AIDA BT MOHD AZLAN JAMAL (2018400044)
NOR AMIRAH BT SHAMSUDDIN (20182655066)
FARAH IZZATY BT SUHAIMIE (2018441078)
SUBMISSION DATE:
8TH JULY 2020

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Table of contents i
List of figures ii
List of tables iii
List of abbreviations iv
Glossary v
Abstract vi
Declaration vii
Acknowledgement viii
CHAPTER 1 – Introduction
1.1 Introduction 1-3
1.2 Background of the study 4-6
1.3 Problem statements 6-8
1.4 Research questions 8
1.4.1Does economic growth have a significant relationship with money
supply in Asia countries? 8
1.4.2 Does interest rate have a significant relationship with money supply
in Asia countries? 8
1.4.3 Does inflation rate have a significant relationship with money supply
in Asia countries? 8
1.5 Research objectives 8
1.6 Scope of the study 9
1.7 Conclusion 9

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CHAPTER 2 – Literature Review
1. Introduction 10
2. Theoretical findings 10
2.2.1 Keynesian Theory 10

2.2.2 Quantity Theory Money (Friedman’s Theory) 11
3. Empirical findings 11
2.3.1 The relationship between Economic Growth and Money Supply 11-12
2.3.2 The relationship between Inflation Rate and Money Supply 13-15
2.3.3 The relationship between Interest Rate and Money Supply 16-17
4. Conclusion 18
CHAPTER 3 – Methodology
3.1 Introduction 19
3.1.1 Methodological choices 19-21

3.1.2 Statement of theory and hypothesis development 21-22
3.2 Data and method 22
3.2.1 Data sources and descriptions 23

3.2.2 A theoretical framework 23-24
3.2.3 The mathematical model of the theory 24-25
3.2.4 The econometric model of the theory 25-26
3.3 Approach to time-series econometrics 26
3.3.1 Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) Procedure 26-27

3.3.2 Serial Correlation Test (Durbin and Serial LM Tests) 27-28
3.3.3 Normality Test on Residuals (Jarque-bera) 28
3.3.4 Multiple Regression Analysis (OLS) 28-30
3.4 Conclusion 30

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CHAPTER 4 – Results and Discussions
4.1 Introduction 31
4.2 Discussions on the findings 32
4.2.1 VIF Procedure 32

4.2.2 Serial Correlation Test 33-35
4.2.3 Normality Test (Jarque-bera) 36
4.2.4 Multiple Regression Analysis (OLS) 37-41
4.3 Conclusion 80
CHAPTER 5 – Conclusion and Recommendation
5.1 Introduction 81
5.2 Conclusion of the findings 81-82
5.3 Implications of the research study 83
5.2.1 Significance to Central Bank as a policymaker 83

5.2.2 Significance to existing and potential investors 84
5.2.3 Significance to future researchers 85
5.2.4 Significance to the firm 85-86
5.4 Limitations of the study 86-87
5.5 Recommendation for future research works 87-89
Appendices 90-159
Bibliographies 160-162

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LIST OF FIGURE
Page
Figure 3.2.2 Theoretical Framework of Macroeconomics 24
Variables and Money Supply in Asia
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LIST OF TABLE
Page
Table 3.2.1 Data and Source 23
Table 4.2.1 Variance Inflation Factor(VIF) Procedure 32,42,51,59,69
Table 4.2.1.1 Malaysia Rerun Variance Inflation Factors 59
Table 4.2.2.1 Durbin Watson (DW) Statistic 33,43,52,60,70
Table 4.2.2.2 Breusch Godfrey LM 34,44,61,71
Table 4.2.2.3.1 Ordinary Least Square Display 34,44,62,72
Table 4.2.2.3.2 Ordinary Least Square Method Newey-West fixed 35,45,62,73
Table 4.2.3.1 Histogram Normality Test 36,46,53,64,74
Table 4.2.4 Multiple Regression Analysis 37,47,54,65,75
Table 4.2.4.3 Test of Significance 39,49,56,67,77
Table 5.2 Results of Findings for Each Country 82-83
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LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
HDI Human Development Index
IV Independent Variables
DV Dependent Variable
IMF International Monetary Fund
BSP Bangkok Central ng Philippines
M2 Money Supply
CBN Central Bank of Nigeria
CPI Consumer Price Index
IPI Industrial Production Index
BLR Bank Lending Rate
E-views Economic Views
VIF Variance Inflation Factor
OLS Ordinary Least Square
DW Durbin Watson
JB Jarque-Bera
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GLOSSARY
1. Base lending rate (BLR): Base interest rate that banks refer to internally before
deciding how much to charge (i.e. interest rate) for your home loan
2. Consumer price index: A measure that examines the weighted average of prices of
a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical
care.
3. Deflation: A general decline in prices for goods and services, typically associated
with a contraction in the supply of money and credit in the economy.
4. Dependent variable: "dependent" on the independent variable. As the
experimenter changes the independent variable, the change in the dependent variable
is observed and recorded. When you take data in an experiment, the dependent
variable is the one being measured.
5. Descriptive research design: To accurately and systematically describe a
population, situation or phenomenon. It can use a wide variety of research
methods to investigate one or more variables
6. Developed country: Developed country is an industrialized country where
sovereign state that features a high Human Development Index (HDI) and advanced
technological infrastructure relative to other less industrialized nations.
7. Developing country: Developing country is a country with a less developed
industrial base and a low Human Development Index relative to other developed
countries.
8. Econometrics model: Specifically, been applied to measure the economic
relationship between variables
9. Economic growth: Economic growth is an increase in the production of economic
goods and services, compared from one period of time to another.
10. Empirical: Based on observed and measured phenomena and derives knowledge
from actual experience rather than from theory or belief.

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11. Exploratory research design: A research used to investigate a problem which is

not clearly defined. It is conducted to have a better understanding of the existing
problem, but will not provide conclusive results.
12. Gross domestic Product: The total monetary or market value of all the finished
goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period
13. Independent variable: It is a variable that stands alone and is not changed by the
other variables you are trying to measure
14. Industrial production Index (IPI): A monthly economic indicator measuring real
output in the manufacturing, mining, electric and gas industries, relative to a base
year
15. Inflation rate: Quantitative measure of the rate at which the average price level of
a basket of selected goods and services in an economy increases over some period
of time.
16. Interest Rate: The amount a lender charges for the use of assets expressed as a
percentage of the principal.
17. M2: A broader measure of the money supply that M1, which just include cash and
checking deposits. It is a closely watched as an indicator of money supply and future
inflation, and as a target of central bank monetary policy.
18. Macroeconomics variables: Macroeconomics are the branch of economics that
deals and handles with the relationship of the main key factors in an economy.
19. Monetary policy: The demand side of economic policy, refers to the actions
undertaken by a nation's central bank to control money supply to
achieve macroeconomic goals that promote sustainable economic growth.
20. Money Supply: Money supply is all the currency and other liquid instruments in a
country's economy on the date measured.
21. Normality Test: A statistical process used to determine if a sample or any group of
data fits a standard normal distribution. A normality test can be performed
mathematically or graphically.
22. Quantitative method: Emphasize objective measurements and the statistical,
mathematical, or numerical analysis of data collected through polls, questionnaires,
and surveys, or by manipulating pre-existing statistical data using computational

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techniques. Quantitative research focuses on gathering numerical data and

generalizing it across groups of people or to explain a particular phenomenon.
23. Regression model: statistical method used in finance, investing, and other
disciplines that attempts to determine the strength and character of the relationship
between one dependent variable (usually denoted by Y) and a series of other
variables (known as independent variables).
24. Serial Correlation Test: where error terms in a time series transfer from one period
to another.
25. Theoretical: Formulated to explain, predict, and understand phenomena and, in
many cases, to challenge and extend existing knowledge, within the limits of the
critical bounding assumptions.
26. Variance Inflation Factor (VIF): A measure of the amount of multicollinearity in
a set of multiple regression variables.

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ABSTRACT
This study examines the relationship between macroeconomic variables and money supply
in Asia. It is known that macroeconomic variables have influenced the movement of money
supply. Macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation rate and interest rate
were tested to investigate the relationship between money supply (M2) in five Asian
countries. The five countries include Singapore, China, Philippines, Bangladesh and
Malaysia. Raw monthly data are gathered and tabulated with ranging from 2000-2019,
taken from various reliable sources such as World Bank Data, Trading Economics,
Thomson Reuters Eikon and CEIC. The interactive software such E-views been used to
conduct econometric tests to identify whether these selected macroeconomic variables are
significant or insignificant and whether there have a positive or negative relationship. This
research study, includes five different findings of each countries and as a result, only
Singapore and Philippines obtained similar results. As an inference, the changes in money
supply (M2) are influenced by the changes of macroeconomic variable in Asia. Hence,
showing the presence of the relationship between both variables.
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AUTHOR’S DECLARATION
I declare that the work in this thesis was carried out in accordance with the regulations of
Universiti Teknologi MARA. It is original and is the results of my own work, unless
otherwise indicated or acknowledged as referenced work. This thesis has not been
submitted to any other academic institution or non-academic institution for any degree or
qualification.
I, hereby, acknowledge that I have been supplied with the Academic Rules and Regulations
for Post Graduate, Universiti Teknologi MARA, regulating the conduct of my study and
research.
Name of Student : Nurul Ardini Binti Zainal
Student I.D. No. : 2018441436
Programme : Bachelor of Business Administrative in Finance
Faculty : Business and Management
Thesis Tittle : The Relationship between Macroeconomics Variables and
Money Supply in Asia
Signature of Student :
Date : July 2020
vii

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qualification.
research.
Name of Student : Nurul Aina Binti Rahmat
Student I.D. No. : 2018425326
Date : July 2020

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qualification.
research.
Name of Student : Nur Aida Binti Mohd Azlan Jamal
Student I.D. No. : 2018400044
Date : July 2020

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qualification.
research.
Name of Student : Nor Amirah Binti Shamsuddin
Student I.D. No. : 2018265066
Date : July 2020

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qualification.
research.
Name of Student : Farah Izzaty Binti Suhaimie
Student I.D. No. : 2018441078
Date : July 2020

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We have put efforts in this study. However, it would not have been possible without
the kind help, support and contribution from many individuals and parties. We would like
to extend and express our gratitude and sincere thanks to all of them. Alhamdulillah, we
would like to thank our Almighty God who always secure the safety of the proponents in
doing this thesis and without whose blessings, we would not have successfully complete
this study.
First and foremost, praises and thanks to the God, the Almighty, for His showers of
blessings throughout my research work to complete the thesis successfully. We would like
to express our deep and sincere gratitude to our beloved research lecturer, Dr. Zetty
Zahureen for giving us the opportunity to do research and providing invaluable guidance
throughout this research. Her dynamism, vision, sincerity and motivation have deeply
inspired us. She has taught us the methodology to carry out the research and to present the
research works as clearly as possible. It was a great privilege and honor to work and study
under her guidance. We are extremely grateful for what she has offered us. We would also
like to thank her for her friendship, empathy and great sense of humor.
We also want to thank our families and friends who directly and indirectly
supported and helped us to complete this research. All their guidance and encouragement
were greatly appreciated as these motivated us to work harder and finish this proposal on
time. Not forgotten to our parents for providing everything such as financial assistance and
always guide and give words of wisdom to inspire us in finishing this thesis Our thanks
and appreciations also go to our colleague that provide help in developing this thesis and
people who have willingly helped us out with their abilities and knowledge.
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CHAPTER 1:
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Introduction
Scholars around the world have studied and aware of the importance of money supply
to the macroeconomics in their countries. Furthermore, recently the money supply crisis
has become a global economic recession that has affected both developed and developing
Asia countries. This chapter enables the reader to induce an understanding on the
relationship between macroeconomic variables and money supply in Asia countries raging
from period of Jan 2000 until Dec 2019. The main objective of this research is to identify
the relationship between macroeconomic variables and money supply in Asia countries.
Monetary aggregates are the manipulation of the money supply with the objective of
affecting macroeconomic outcomes like economic growth, inflation rate and interest rates.
A monetary aggregate is used as the instrument of monetary policy, and it thus acted as the
anchor for prices (Arwatchanakarn, 2018). The Bank of Thailand started targeting
monetary aggregates within a financial programming approach to ensure macroeconomic
consistency and to attain price stability and sustainable economic growth as well
(Charoenseang & Manakit, 2007).
Terminologies terms that are utilized in this research includes independent variables –
macroeconomic variables used (economic growth, inflation rate and interest rate),
dependent variable – money supply, developed and developing Asia countries. The
definition of every term used are as follows:

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27. Macroeconomics variables: Macroeconomics are the branch of economics that

deals and handles with the relationship of the main key factors in an economy.
Basically the study of an economy as a whole. Macroeconomics variables are main
indicators that signaling the current economic trends in a country. It is crucial for
every country, to review and analyzes the macroeconomics variables to determine
the current economy behavior (Jim Chappelow, 2019)
28. Economic growth: Economic growth is an increase in the production of economic
goods and services, compared from one period of time to another. It can be measured
in terms of Gross National Product (GNP) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or
perhaps Industrial Production Index (IPI) (Chappelow, Economic Growth, 2019)
29. Inflation rate: Inflation rate is a sustained increase in the general price index of
products and services in an economy over a period of time (Chen, 2020)
30. Interest Rate: Interest rate are the reward paid by a borrower (debtor) to a lender
(creditor) for the use of money for a period, and they are expressed in percentage
terms per annum. (Faure, 2014)
31. Money Supply: Money supply is all the currency and other liquid instruments in a
country's economy on the date measured. The money supply roughly includes both
cash and deposits that may be used almost as easily as cash (Chappelow & Barnier,
2020).
32. Developed country: Developed country is an industrialized country where
sovereign state that features a high Human Development Index (HDI) and advanced
technological infrastructure relative to other less industrialized nations (Majaski,
2019).
33. Developing country: Developing country is a country with a less developed
industrial base and a low Human Development Index relative to other developed
countries (Majaski, 2019).
In this study, money supply is treated as the exploratory variable, that is, a dependent
variable that does not stand alone and is influenced by how other variables are manipulated
(He, 2017). According to Hussain (2017), developing countries are including Bangladesh,

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India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, South

Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and Thailand while developed countries are of course, United
States of America, Japan and Europe (Tin-fah & Ariff, 2016). In this research, we will be
examining the relationship between dependent and independent variables. Therefore, we
have taken three independent variables (IV) that are economic growth, interest rate and
inflation rate and one dependent variable (DV) that is money supply.
The research consists of three chapters – Introduction, Literature Review, and Research
Methodology. Thus, chapter one comprehensively discusses about the relationship
between macroeconomics variables and money supply in Asia countries through the
background of study, problem statement, research objectives, research questions, scope and
limitations of the study and the implications of the study. Chapter two on the other hand,
focuses on the literature review that categorized into two findings, namely, theoretical
findings and empirical findings. Lastly, chapter three, which we, researcher discussed in
depth on the research methodology, research design, research strategies that are used, data
and source for collection method, explanations on the theoretical framework extensively,
the types of research and the methods of analysis that will be used in this whole research
study.

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1.2 Background of Study

Macroeconomics is the branch of economics that studies the behavior and performance
of an economy as a whole. Macroeconomic can be related to the money supply because
macroeconomics as a whole influences the money supply. Macroeconomic variables that
are used, namely, economic growth, interest rate and inflation rate. Economists analyzed
the money supply as a key variable to determine the changes in macroeconomic and also
guiding to develop the macroeconomic policy in the country. This research is to identify
the significance relationship of macroeconomics variables on money supply in Asia. For
instance, some country uses the actual data of the money supply in the period of 2012-
2016 of Vietnam and China to assess and compare the level of inflation and the money
supply growth that impact on the Nominal and real gross domestic product (GDP). Hence,
the analyze the impact of the money supply growth, the velocity of money, inflation and
economic growth of each country, the method that was applied by regression function and
equation of exchange.
From the previous researches, the existing empirical studies emphasized on the
unintended consequences of macroeconomic interactions among economies around the
world point to significant degree of automatic economic contagion effects among
economies or countries that are linked to some degree. In fact, there are some studies have
examined macroeconomic effects of uncertainty or volatility, with most of these studies
specifically focusing on the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on growth or economic
performance. In terms of how specific adverse macroeconomic conditions such as inflation
uncertainty impact output growth or economic activities based on (Rexford, 2016).
Money supply can be affected by the macroeconomics variables if there is no action
taken toward the monetary policy implementation. The interpretation of monetary policy
refers to the policy adopted by monetary authority of a country to the arrangement of
actions intended to control the value, supply as well as cost of money in conformity with
the level of economic activities. The monetary policy in every Central Bank practicing
consists of the management of money supply and interest rates, which aims at achieving
macroeconomic objectives such as controlling the inflation rate, consumptions, growth,
and liquidity by the Central bank of a country in Asia that have been selected.

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In this research as well, money supply will be affected by the inflation rate in the
country. According to previous researches, we have determined that there is a positive
relationship between inflation and money supply while considering a host of other factors
said by (Cao, 2015). This research also discusses on the relationship between economic
growth and money supply. It also shown a positive relationship between economic growth
and money supply. In other words, when money supply increase, there is a tendency to be
highly positive about the economy and asset price such as housing and stock.
The relationship between interest rate and money supply also will be discussed in this
research study. Therefore, it is shown and proven by previous researches that there is a
negative relationship occurs in both variables. To brief, the decreasing in interest rate will
lead to an increment in money supply, thus, the consumers will borrow more to enjoy the
lower interest rate (base lending rate). Conversely, when the interest rate rises, the money
supply declines as at this particular time, consumers are less inclined in making loan from
the bank.
This is whereby, money supply will be the dependent variable on one of the elements
in monetary policies that will be affected by independent variable (Economic Growth,
Inflation Rate and Interest Rate) in the Asia country. Money supply also can be known as
stock of money which mean the money that have been circulated for stock of currencies
and other liquid instrument in a country’s economy. Money supply includes the cash, coins,
and balance held in checking and saving accounts and other near money substitute. Below
is the general classification of monetary policies variables under Money Supply:
• M1 = Currency Circulation (For Example: Bank notes and coins)
• M2 = M1 + savings deposits, money market securities, mutual funds, and other
deposits.
• M3 = Broad Money (M2 + Large time deposits, institutional money, Market Fund,
Short term repurchase agreements and larger liquid assets)
The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there is a relationship between
macroeconomics variables and money supply in Asia. Based on the standard
macroeconomics theory stated that, an increase in the supply of money should lower the
interest rate in the economy which it leads to more consumption and lending/borrowing.
While when money supply is increasing in a country, it can lead to increase in economic

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variables as consumer have more spending and vice versa. However, when the money
supply increase it will cause inflation at the same rate as real output, then the prices will
stay the same (He, 2017). Most of selected Asia countries have medium relatively levels
of monetary policies and money supply as they are developing countries and can show the
moderate economic growth towards the economics.
Besides, from Friedman’s Theory states that "Inflation is forever and all over a
monetary phenomenon that derives from fast growth in the amount of money than in total
income.” He pointed out that the changes in the money supply will effort effectively
throughout to be the main reasons for change in nominal income. He discusses output level
will go first through monetary expansion if the nominal income of the public rises (Sultana,
2018). Moreover, based on Keynesian’s Theory stated that, based on the short-term
analysis he argues that the increase in aggregate demand boosts up demand-pull inflation.
The main source of rapid inflation is the gap between aggregate demand and aggregate
supply. According to Keynesian theory, prices are determined exogenously, or
nonmonetary forces and output are to be variable which is resolute by the change in
investment expenditure (Sultana, 2018). However, we will show further discussion about
the fact of the theories to proof it as the strong or just a statement towards the economics.
1.3 Problem Statements

In the review of the literatures, many studies have been conducted on the variables
affecting money supply such as economic growth, inflation rate and interest rate in the Asia
country such as China, Malaysia, Singapore, Bangladesh and Philippines. The study is
meant to investigate relationship between macroeconomic variables and money supply in
Asia countries.
Furthermore, according to the news in International Monetary Fund (IMF) dated 22
October 2019, stated that in the Asia countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,
Singapore, and Thailand), growth lost some momentum in the first half of 2019, due to
weakening external demand. Looking ahead, growth is expected to stabilize around the
mid-4 percent level.
Recently, around the world has been affected by the effects of epidemic viruses that
leaves such devastating impact on the countries’ money supply. Bank of Asia countries are

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also not immune to the effects of the outbreak, according to Michael Ricafort, Chief
Economist at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said the Bangkok Central ng Philippines
(BSP) still has a room to further ease monetary policy, to be fact that an action has already
taken by the US Federal Reserve when it slashed policy rates by 50 bps recently to counter
the effects of Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) towards growth (Cigaral, 2020). In
China, according to Freya Beamish at Pantheon Macroeconomics, the current rate of
increase in M2 pointed to a sub-4.0% pace of expansion in China’ gross domestic product
on a two-to-three-year horizon (Bueso, 2020).
Another Asia country that also have same problem is Bangladesh, whereby the country
has to ensure that each branches of bank have sufficient money due to that, its central bank
had increase the money supply in the country according to the prime minister of Finance
in Bangladesh. While in Philippines, money supply grew double digits in January due to
the demand for credit during the month which that has been reported by Bangkok Central
ng Philippines (BCP) in March 2020. The Central Bank showed the domestic liquidity rose
11.9% to P12.793 trillion in January from P11.433 trillion the same month in 2019
(CABUENAS, 2020). It shows that economic growth on Philippines also increases as the
consumers are spending more because of the increasing in money supply. In addition, loans
for production and household also increased during the month compare to year 2019.
According Van (2019) indicated that money supply may have been influenced by
several factors such as interest rate, inflation rate and economic growth. However, not all
of the macroeconomic variables being examined in term of the impact on the money supply
fluctuation. There are some studies such as in 2016, Rexford have examined
macroeconomic effects of uncertainty or volatility, with most of these studies specifically
focusing on the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on growth or economic performance.
In terms of how specific adverse macroeconomic conditions such as inflation uncertainty
impact output growth or economic activities. In majority rare macroeconomic variables
have less research done on its influence toward the money supply movement.
Therefore, it is motivated to conduct the research in Asia countries in order to determine
the macroeconomic variables that significantly affect money supply in Asia countries since
there are few factors examined in past research. To deduce, the main purpose of this paper
is to examine the relationship between the selected macroeconomic variables and money

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supply in Asia countries by using quantitative method by using the other way around
departing from the framework theory and regression model.
1.4 Research Questions

This research study aims to answer the research questions that are derived as follows:
a) Does economic growth have a significant relationship with money supply in
Asia countries?
b) Does interest rate have a significant relationship with money supply in Asia
countries?
c) Does inflation rate have a significant relationship with money supply in Asia
countries?
1.5 Research Objectives
1.5.1 General Objectives
This research tends to improve current knowledge associated with the influence as well as
relationship between of the three macroeconomic factors which include economic growth,
interest rate and inflation rate on money supply in Asia countries.
1.5.2 Specific Objectives

The specific term of the objectives of this study are:
a) To examine a significant relation between economic growth and money
supply in Asia countries.
b) To analyzed a significant relation between interest rate and money supply
in Asia countries.
c) To investigate whether there is significant relation between inflation rates
and money supply in Asia countries.

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1.6 Scope and Limitations of the study

The scope of this study is mainly focusing the 5 countries in Asia which are Singapore,
China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and Bangladesh. The main reason why we as
researchers’ choses these countries as sample because it falls in the same economic
status – developing countries. Developing country is a medium industrialize country
whereby a country that is less developed industrial base and low Human Development
index compared to countries classified as developed. With identical and similar
characteristic, data collection method will be similar and it is based on the secondary
data source, while the period of the investigation takes place from the year 2000 to
2019.
1.8 Conclusion
This chapter had carried out the Asia countries’ introduction of money supply and
explain the overview of the nature and field of study. In this chapter, for background of the
study, we discuss the current issues arising on the study that we are planning to highlighting
the objectives of our research. Next, we also explain the gap of knowledge of new findings
in problem statement. We also included research objectives and question for this research.
Besides that, we discussed the scope and limitations of the study which help other
researcher to understand the purpose of conducting this research. Moreover, the implication
of the study which has also been covered in this chapter on how this research contributes
to the public. Other than that, it involved the chapter layouts in this chapter to provide more
understanding in the outline of every chapter in this research. In the followings of chapter
2, there will be discussion on the literature review based on the past research on this
relationship between macroeconomics variables and money supply in Asia countries.

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CHAPTER 2:
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction
In this chapter the main theoretical foundation used in this study is money supply
of the Asia countries and the empirical finding in this study is macroeconomic variables.
Proposed conceptual framework helps the readers acknowledge and also develops
hypothesis which are used to clarify the influences between variables. This research is
about how the money supply is affected by the macroeconomic variable in Asia countries.
In the short, we may proceed our research with some methodologies to provide few
outcomes that influence variables.
2.2 Theoretical Findings
2.1.1 Keynesian Theory
G.Kulkani (2006) opined that if economy demand more for money then it will lead the
excessive money supply that which will affect the price level and economic growth. There
is positive relationship between money supply and economic growth. From the
Keynesian’s theory, we can see it from two perspectives which are Contractionary
monetary policy and Expansionary monetary policies. Generally, Contractionary happens
when money supply in the economy decrease. Hence, decrease in money supply will
decrease in consumer spending so it will lead to decrease in economic growth. For
Expansionary, it emphasizes when money supply in the economy increase, will leads
consumer to spend more so that is why the economic growth will increase.
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2.1.2 Quantity Theory Money (Friedman’s Theory)
The Quantity Theory of Money refers to the concept that the amount of money available
(money supply) is increasing at the same rate as long-term price levels. There is a positive
relationship between money supply and inflation where when interest rates fall or taxes
decrease and the access to money becomes less restricted, consumers become less sensitive
to price changes. Hence this can be said that when there is increasing in the money supply
will cause price levels to increase, thus causing inflation (CFI, 2015).
2.3 Empirical Findings
2.3.1 The relationship between Economic Growth and Money Supply
The economic growth is imperfect by economic productivity and health on the

money supply. Basically, when money supply is increase, there is a tendency to be highly
positive about the economy and asset price such as housing and stock. For example, when
economic growth is increase, it affects the money supply in a positive way through similar
channels. The importance of economic growth, and its relationship with money supply, has
continued to be a key area of discussion in developing nations (Kalubowila & Perera ,
2015).
There are theoretical debate circulating regarding the money supply that
endogenously determined by economic growth. However, it is proven by Amrendra Pandey
(2017), that conducted empirical study on the relationship between monetary variables and
industrial production in India. The study has proved that there is a long run relationship
between money supply and Industrial Production Index (IPI).
Ogunmuyiwa and Ekone (2010) have established that, while it is negligible, money
supply is positively related to economic growth rise. In 2005, Ibrahim estimated that the
real effects of monetary-policy shocks are important. Munir et al. (2009) found that
inflation and growth have a statistically significant positive relation. According to the
Asian Development Bank (2013), the average budget deficit and broad- of M2 to economic
growth in these countries in 2012 is -3.9 percent and 71.6 percent, respectively, where the
highest fiscal deficit ratios are Pakistan (-6.64 percent), Sri Lanka (-6.4 percent) And
Bangladesh (-4.56 percent) while Malaysia (142 percent), Thailand (124.8 percent) and
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Vietnam (108.4 percent) have a broad-money supply of M2 (-4.56 percent) (Nguyen,

2015). Industrial production index (IPI) represented in economic growth of the model.
In the study by Cifter and Ozun (2007) as cited in Sabri Nayan et al. (2013) which
aimed to investigate money supply endogeneity in a developing country by using seven
types macroeconomics variables. One of the variables includes Index of Industrial
Production, where, it provides overall result that money supply is endogenously determined
by the variables.
Based on research by Suna Korkmaz (2013) as cited in Mohammad et al. (2009)
shows that public spending and inflation are negatively linked to long-term economic
growth while M2 has positive long-term effects on economic growth. The main outcome
of the OLS analysis reveals that the monetary policy methods used for the model have
shown that monetary policy has a positive relationship with Malaysian economic growth
(Akalpler & Duhok, 2017). Furthermore, the increment of the excessive money supply can
as well boost up the prices which lead to high inflation that exceeded the expected level so
that in the long term could undermine economic growth. Conversely, if the increase in the
money supply is very low, the economic downturn will occur (Darman, 2016).
In fact, even during times of economic growth markets that may act momentarily
unpredictably, as we have seen. As they provide the overall scorecard on the overall
strength of the economy, investors are alerting about economic growth reports. It is because
of the strong economic growth that helps raise corporate profits as time goes on supplying
capital. The relationships between money supply and macroeconomic variables in Asia
countries. The results indicated that money supply has significant and positive effect on
economic growth in both short run as well as in long run (Siyan & Adegoriola, 2015).
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2.3.2 The relationship between Inflation Rate and Money Supply
Next macroeconomics variable is inflation. .Inflation can be defined over time as

the continuous rise in the overall level of prices across the economy. Inflation is an increase
in the volume of money and credit in relation to the goods available, resulting in a
substantial and continuous increase in the general price level (Webster’s New Collegiate
Dictionary, 1973ed.). The relationship between economic growth, money supply and
inflation are a worldwide affair and it is unique to every government. Basically, money
supply will give an affect toward inflation in the country. From the research that undertaken
by Cao (2015) whereby mentions that they found the positive relationship between money
supply and inflation while considering a host of other factors. They also found analyzed
data of 110 countries from 1960 to 1990, including 21 OECD nations and 14 Latam
countries, and found that the relationship between money growth and inflation has a high
positive correlation. The empirical findings suggest that the higher rate of inflation is
mainly a result of the depreciating of the country’s currency and increases in prices in the
public sector.
Based on the research by Chaitipa (2015) stated the examination of the impact of
money supply (M2) on the GDP of Pakistan, due to high rate of inflation has adversely
affected the economy of Pakistan which is a result of excessive supply of money (M2) by
SPB. They have taken into consideration the data for 12 years from 2000 to 2011, and
analyzing this data by using the regression model. In Bangladesh, they proved by its study
of the relationship money supplies and inflation whereby money supply gives an impact
towards inflation in Bangladesh. If a politically influenced central bank increases the
money supply to achieve that goal and it will give an affect which is inflation will increases.
Hussain (2017) in his study has concluded that the governments of Asia countries should
be careful at money supply, fiscal deficit, government expenditure and interest rate because
they can contribute to high inflation for the economy. A high level of inflation reduces the
purchasing power of money. This means people have to spend additional money to buy
something than before.
From the research of Musa (2014) emphasized that in Nigeria the monetary
authority’s strategy for inflation management is based on the view that inflation is
essentially a monetary phenomenon Because targeting money supply growth is seen as an
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appropriate way of targeting inflation in the Nigerian economy, the Central Bank of Nigeria
(CBN) has chosen a monetary targeted policy framework to achieve its price stability
objective. The CBN used a mix of indirect money (M2) as the intermediate target and the
monetary base as the operational target. These instruments included reserve requirements,
Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs) open-market operations, liquid asset ratios and the
discount window (IMF Country Report, 2003).
The Chinese government has frequently adjusted monetary policy in China over the
past more than 10 years to address macroeconomic challenges such as economic decline,
real estate bubble, and high research inflation (Yang, 2015). According to the Chaudhry,
Farooq and Murtaza (2015) publish a paper called 'Monetary Policy and its Inflationary
Pressure in Pakistan'. Their findings go beyond the main points; interest rate and money
supply are important long-term policy variables for controlling inflation while in the short
run it is the national output level that put downward pressure on the inflation rate.
Meanwhile, Jayasooriya (2015) also points out that the expansion of monetary policy leads
to an increase in Sri Lankan inflation and one reason for this for the expansive monetary
policy is the budget deficit. Inflation on the other hand also causes the budget deficit to
rise. Those relationships therefore clearly show a vicious cycle of inflation in Sri Lanka.
Based on the research, Shen (2019) mentioned that with the continuous
development of China’s economy, indicators such as gross national product, consumer
price index and money supply have been important indicators to judge the state of
macroeconomic development. Consumer price index (CPI) is an indicator to measure and
judge deflation and inflation. In fact, the control of money circulation has become
particularly important, because through the control of money circulation will directly affect
inflation, hence affecting the development of the whole economy. Bozzkurt (2014) studied
that in Turkey, economic instability created by high and continuing inflation for many
years reduced growth performance, affected income distribution adversely, reduced the
level of prosperity and caused instability in all areas. It is a well-known fact that high
inflation decreases purchasing power and creates financial difficulties. On the other hand,
it also affects individuals' life quality adversely. The fact that education, which is the most
important aspect for the future of the country is ignored, individual's starting his/her
working career at an early age, cutting back on expenditures related to social life such as
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book-newspapers, holiday, entertainment are examples of how negatively inflation can

affect life quality (TCMB, 2004:14).
There are three main price indices in Nepal, namely the CPI, the WPI; and the index
of salaries and wages (SWRI). The main focus is placed on CPI to measure the cost of
living. That's because CPI measures the impact of inflation which is the final measure of
household prices. Through this process, we tend to describe inflation as an increase in price
indexes, so that any increase in the index is the 'inflation' label which was mentioned by
(Chaudhary, 2018). So, inflation will basically impact the country's money supply.
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2.3.3 The relationship between Interest Rate and Money Supply
Interest rate is another macro-economic variable that is affected by money supply.

The interest rate is defined as the proportion of the amount of the loan that the lender
charges as interest to the borrower, usually expressed as an annual percentage. It is the rate
at which a bank or other lender is charged to borrow its money, or the rate at which the
bank pays its savers to keep the money in the account. Other than that, Interest rate is the
amount charged by the lender for the use of assets expressed as a percentage of the
principal. The interest rate is typically recorded on an annual basis, known as the Annual
Percentage Rate (APR). There will be a negative relationship between the interest rate and
the supply of money. When the money supply increases, the interest rate will decrease.
From the research, they underline the fact that money supply is related to variable such as
construction, vacancies, employment growth and interest rate. Increase in money supply
will rise in the spending power, with a drop in interest rates and will creating more capital
for investment mention by (Coen, 2018). Increasing the supply also leads to more
investments, economic growth thanks to the consumption increase (Dragos, 2013). As in
India, (2019) reported that Central Bank in India(RBH) will cuts the interest rate as their
nominal GDP is growing at slowest rate. This will encourage consumer to spend more and
can increase the Money supply slowly. So, this is the proof that the theories that have been
made is true because there is negative relationship happened.
Howells and Houssein (1998) touches on the causality approaches between bank
lending rate and money supply in developed country (G7) as cited in (Yannis, 2006). The
outcomes of the study was that bank lending rate (BLR) has a causal effect on these
countries, and accepting the endogeneity of money supply. Furthermore, the study of
Kalgor (1982) that literate by Sabri Nayan et al (2013), investigated this study by utilizing
Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method finds that bank lending rate determined the money
supply in United Kingdom hence giving the evidence that money supply as endogenous
variable.
From the research that we found; they tell us money supply changes in a country
also will impacts the nominal interest rates. Economic theories present the correlation
between the money supply and the nominal interest rate as two concepts which in
themselves contradict each other. The first is the liquidity effect concept. Based on the
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research, (2017) the author concludes that governments of Asian countries. According to
this concept, there is a negative relationship between money and interest rates. Increased
interest rates require a reduction in the amount of money stock referred to (Korkmaz,
2013). For previous evidence of this theory, the government has raised the interest rate of
SBI (Sertifikat Bank Indonesia / Bank Indonesia Certificates), so government needs to
conduct other policies that encourage people to be more productive, rather than lowering
the profit from interest that had mention by (Darman, 2016).
Based on the research, (2017) the author concludes that governments of Asian
countries should be careful at money supply, fiscal deficit, government expenditure and
interest rate because it can make a contribution to high inflation for the economy.
Furthermore, in European countries (2013) as cited in Cochrane (1989) proof the
relationship between Money supply and Interest rate using band-pass filters to investigate
the short-run relationship between money growth and interest rates. He also found a
negative correlation between short-term movements in money growth and interest rates,
which he describes as facts that the liquidity effect dominates the expected inflation effect.
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2.3 Conclusion
In this chapter 2, we discuss about two theories that related on macroeconomic variables
and money supply which are Keynesian Theory and Quantity Theory of Money. For
Keynesian Theory is state the relationship between economic growth and money supply
and for quantity theory money is about relationship between inflation and money supply.
Next, empirical findings is about positive or negative relationship between macroeconomic
variables (economic growth, inflation rate, interest rate) and money supply. These variables
viewed as positive relationship between economic growth and money supply and also
positive relationship between inflation rate and money supply. But this macroeconomic
variable has one negative relationship between interest rate and money supply. However,
the further investigation will be continuing in the following chapters.
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CHAPTER 3:
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction
Research methodology is basically a framework and path for researchers on how the
research will be developed and discussed. As known, research methodology is crucial in
every research study as it guide the researcher to obtain research outcome towards the end,
in line with their research objectives. For emphasis, this chapter will discuss on the
methodological choice, rationales and purpose of research design, research strategy,
hypothesis development, data and method, and approaches to time-series econometrics.
3.1.1 Methodological Choice

To address the problem statement and research objectives, this research study is
using Quantitative Research approach. This approach is focused on data collection –
secondary data sources, data analysis and numeric data such as econometrics. The main
purpose of quantitative approach is to study the relationship of certain variables, which in
line with the research topic – The Relationship between Macroeconomics Variables and
Money Supply in Asia.
The type of research for this research study is time-series regression. Time-series
regression is a statistical method for forecasting future response or data based on the
response history and the transfer of dynamics from relevant forecaster (MathWorks, 2020).
It is an analysis that involves the collection of data which is based on specific intervals
over particular period of time. This research study is aimed to determine the relationship
macroeconomics variables and money supply in Asia, with monthly data ranging between
the years of 2000 – 2019.
The purposes of our research design is a mixture of exploratory and descriptive
research study. Exploratory research design is used to test for one-way relationship
which has been tested and proven before. Basically, the main objectives for this research
design is to study the relationship. This research design is most commonly unstructured
and flexible, that is mean, informal research is done for the collection of data. Exploratory
research design will help the researchers in providing more knowledge about the research
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problem. In other words, this research design will determine the nature of relationship
between variables. Tools of exploratory research design includes conducting a search of
literature for review.
Descriptive research design on the other hand, is a study that describes the
characteristics of a population or phenomena. Descriptive research design aims at
answering the Who, What, Where, When and How of the research subject. This research
design basically attempts to systematically obtain the general overview of the research that
the researchers wishes to collect data, which referring to the research objective, research
questions, data analysis and findings. Thus, in order to examine and investigate the
relationship between macroeconomics variables and money supply in Asia, the mixture of
both purposes is vital. In fact, both research designs can use a quantitative method to
investigate the variables, hence the findings will be more precise
Last but not least, the strategies of this research study comprises of experimental
and case studies. Experimental research strategy represents a way to demonstrate a
cause-effect or causal relationship between the variables. In other words, the purpose of an
experimental research strategy is to establish the functional relationship between the two
variables – independent and dependent variables. It is when the researcher systematically
manipulates the independent variables (act as causal agent) and then determines whether it
produces corresponding changes in the dependent variables in an observation. This
research study is aim to examine the relationship between macroeconomics variables and
money supply, that is, the changes in macroeconomics variables will have an impact to
money supply. Experiment involves in deducing the hypothesis between the two variables.
Statistical tools that used in experimental method strategy for this study includes t-Test.
Case study strategy on the other hand, involves empirical in-depth investigation
about the research problem using multiple of sources. This strategy is mainly to provide a
better understanding of the context of research and specific processes that will be sought.
Therefore, adopting a case study strategy allowing the researcher to achieves the research
objectives and answer the research questions satisfactorily by conducting multiple ways of
data collection and analysis. For instance, a study of the relationship between
macroeconomics variables and money supply. Literature and journal review that is
undertaken provides clearer understanding of the research problems based on the previous
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researcher simultaneously, enabling the researchers to capture the right methodology in

order to achieve the objectives. Therefore, literature and document review is used for data
collection techniques, while quantitative research analysis is used for data analysis.
3.1.2 Statement of Theory and Hypothesis

This study primarily target to examine that money supply is endogenously
determined by the macroeconomics variables, which are, economic growth, inflation rate
and interest rate. Therefore, the theory behind the development of hypothesis is that we
aim to collect ample evidences to prove that each variables are significant. Hence, we
utilized the statistical hypothesis approach which include the construction of null
hypothesis, with objective of rejecting it and also, alternative hypothesis. The hypothesis,
is then can be testable and proven, with backed by enough evidence. However, unable to
reject the null hypothesis does not necessarily mean that the data is not true and valid, but,
it illustrates that the theory does not support with enough evidence to reject the null
hypothesis.
𝑯𝟎 = 𝒏𝒖𝒍𝒍 𝒉𝒚𝒑𝒐𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒔𝒊𝒔
𝑯𝒙 = 𝒂𝒍𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒏𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝒉𝒚𝒑𝒐𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒔𝒊𝒔
The generic hypothesis or hypothesis as a whole for this study is:

1. Hypothesis 1 – Macroeconomics variables and money supply
𝐻0 = There is no significant relationship between macroeconomics variables and
money supply in Asia.
𝐻1 = There is a significant relationship between macroeconomics variables and
money supply in Asia.
List of hypotheses for the study are as follows:
1. Hypothesis 1 – Economic growth and money supply
𝐻0 = There is no significant relationship between economic growth and money
supply in Asia.
𝐻1 = There is a significant relationship between economic growth and money
supply in Asia.
2. Hypothesis 2 – Inflation rate and money supply
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𝐻0 = There is no significant relationship between inflation rate and money supply

in Asia.
𝐻2 = There is a significant relationship between inflation rate and money supply in
Asia.
3. Hypothesis 3 – Interest rate and money supply
𝐻0 = There is no significant relationship between interest rate and money supply in
Asia.
𝐻3 = There is a significant relationship between interest rate and money supply in
Asia.
3.2 Data and Method

3.2.1 Data and Source
As explained earlier, the data that used for this study is secondary in nature. Data
collection is crucial as it collect and measure the information systematically in order to get
a better view for this whole study. The data are obtained from Thomson Reuters Eikon,
World Bank Data, Trading Economics, CEIC Data and International Monetary Fund. The
data are then, collected within the period of 2000 to 2019 – aggregate of 20 years’ period.
Data collected for independent variables are inflation (CPI), interest rate (BLR), economic
growth (IPI), while data for dependent variable is money supply (MS2). The data
collections are shown in the table 3.2.1 below.
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Variables Proxy Unit of Measurement Database Literature

Review
Dependent Variable
Money Supply MS2 Currency in USD CEIC data Chaitipa (2015),
Musa (2014)
Independent
Variables
Economic Growth IPI Index number CEIC data, Amrendra
International Pandey (2017),
Monetary Fund, Nguyen (2015),
Thomson Reuters Cifter and Ozun
Eikon (2007)
Inflation rate CPI Index number Trading Economics Shen (2019),
Chaudhary,
(2018)
Interest rate BLR Basis points (%) Trading Economics, Howells and
World Bank Data Houssein (1998),
Sabri Nayan
(2013)
Table 3.2.1 Data and Source
3.2.2 A Theoretical Framework
Basically, the theoretical framework explains the paths and grounds of the entire
research is based. It is a foundation and structure that able to support the research study.
Hence, it is based on existing knowledge, observation, ideas and experience. Therefore,
theoretical framework will help researchers in giving clear view on the interpretation and
understanding the relevance of research findings (Vinz, 2015).
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For this research study, there are two variables involves – independent and dependent
variables. Main purpose of this study is to investigate the significant relationship between
these variables. Independent variable which also called as an exogenous variable model, is
a variable that stand alone and does not change by other variable. However, dependent
variable – endogenous variable is a variable that is changed or which valued is determined
by other variable. The selection of both variables as well have been explained earlier in
this proposal. The theoretical framework of this study is shown on the figure 3.2.2
Economic
Growth
Inflation
Money
Rate Supply
Interest Rate
Independent Variables Dependent Variable
Figure 3.2.2 Theoretical Framework of Macroeconomics Variables and Money Supply in Asia
3.2.3 Mathematical Model of the Theory
The use of mathematical model in social science studies has increased over the
years. It is very practical as it help researchers to study the effects or relationships between
variables. Mathematical models can be in many forms, but for this study, model used is
linear equations. Linear equations is a study of the relationship between variables whereby,
value of one variable is determined by the changes of value in other (Houghton Mifflin
Company, 1999). The generic linear equation can be written in the form of:
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𝒂𝒙 + 𝒃 = 𝟎 (1)
Where, a and b are numbers and x is the variable. This is the most standard linear equation
term. However, it is then derived into another general form of:
𝒚 = 𝒎𝒙 + 𝒄 (𝟐)
Where, y and x are the variables, m is the rational coefficient number and c is the constant
or intercept. In this equation, it is explained that y is the dependent variable and x is the
independent variable.
3.2.4 Econometrics Model of the Theory

Econometrics model is then specifically been applied to measure the economic
relationship between variables. According to Shalbh (2019), econometrics model is a
representation of simplified model which to explain the phenomena or assumptions made
with an objective to provide numerical values to the parameter time series model. Since
this research study emphasized the time series model, the empirical data are then collected,
tabulated and formulated in order to provide significant outcomes towards the end of the
study.
Regression modelling is one of effective tools to be applied for the measurement in
this study. We utilized the multiple linear regression analysis as a way to determining the
relationship between a dependent variable and multiple independent variables. Deriving
from standard mathematical linear equation in (2), we now then able to form a specific
regression equation as follows:
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𝒚 = 𝒂 + 𝜷𝟏 𝑿𝟏 + 𝜷𝟐 𝑿𝟐 + 𝜷𝟑 𝑿𝟑 + 𝜺𝒕 (3)
In this equation, 𝒚 is the value of dependent variable that is being predicted and
calculated, while 𝑿𝟏−𝟑 are the value of independent variables that explains the variance
in 𝒚. 𝒂, or initially in (2) stated as c, is the constant or intercept term in the equation. 𝜷𝟏−𝟑
is a coefficient to be estimated or the slope for every variable, for instance a negative sign
exist in the coefficient is expected that the variables have a negative relationship with the
dependent variable. The linear regression equation includes the error term, 𝜺𝒕 . Error term
is included as it helps the model to be more precise and true. Therefore, 𝜺𝒕 explains the
error term in predicting the value of dependent variable. In fact, in a real life situation of
linear regression model, independent variables are not perfect manipulators for dependent
variable. With that being said, the equation for multiple regression for this study is:
𝒚 = 𝒂 + 𝜷𝟏 𝑰𝑷𝑰 + 𝜷𝟐 𝑪𝑷𝑰 + 𝜷𝟑 𝑩𝑳𝑹 + 𝜺𝒕 (4)
3.3 Approaches to Time-Series Econometrics
There are four approaches for the time-series involved in this study, which are,
Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) procedure, Serial Correlation Test, Normality Test on
Residuals and lastly, Multiple Regression Model.
3.3.1 Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) Procedure

Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) procedure measure a set of multicollinearity in a set of
multiple regression. (Chappelow, Economics: Variance Inflation Factor, 2018).
Multicollinearity is when the independent variable in a model are correlated. Usually,
researcher used multiple regression – to predict the value or outcomes based on two or
more independent variables. Therefore, VIF procedure is used to measure linear association
between an independent variable and all the other independent variables. Hence, according
to Pedace (2013), VIF can be derived by
1
𝑉𝐼𝐹𝑘 =
1-𝑅𝑘2
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Whereby 𝑅𝑘2 is the R-Squared valued obtained by regressing independent variable on all
other independent variables in the model. As of its rule of thumb, VIFs that is greater than
10 signal is highly multicollinearity problem, signal between 5 and 10 is moderately
correlated and VIFs value of 1 is not correlated. High multicollinearity is more common
and can create problems when estimating econometrics models (Econometrics For
Dummies, Pedace, 2013).
3.3.2 Serial Correlation Test

Serial Correlation Test or also known as autocorrelation test is conducted when an
error occurs in the regression models. It is basically a repeating error pattern from one time-
series period to another period. Therefore, autocorrelation occurs either in a form of
positive autocorrelation and negative autocorrelation. Positive autocorrelation is when an
error of a given sign inclines to be followed by an error of a same sign. For instance,
positive errors followed by positive errors and vice versa. However, negative
autocorrelation is when an error of a given sign inclines to be followed by an error of an
opposite sign, such as positive errors followed by negative errors. Thus, with the presence
of autocorrelation, the OLS estimators may not be efficient.
In order to conduct Serial Correlation test, we have to perform in two orders – The
Durbin-Watson (DW) test and Breusch Godfrey LM test. The Durbin-Watson (DW)
test is the most common test for detecting autocorrelation in the residuals from a statistical
regression analysis. As for the rule of thumb, DW test always have a value for not serially
correlated error between error terms, whereby should value between 1 - Lower Dublin (dL)
and 4 – Upper Dublin (dU). Null hypothesis as well must be developed:
𝑯𝟎 = Error terms are serially correlated
Assuming that the error terms are correlated, thus, we are unable to reject the null
hypothesis as the aim for this test is to reject the null hypothesis. Therefore, failure to reject
the null hypothesis in the first order, directing us to perform the second order.
Breusch Godfrey LM test is another test for checking autocorrelation issue. The
rule of thumbs for this test, we must to identify whether the test statistics will follow chi-
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square distribution. Hence, if the statistical p-value is more than the chosen significance
level, therefore there is no serial correlation in the error terms. Thus, we are able to reject
the null hypothesis in the second order because the error terms are not serially correlated.
3.3.4 Normality Test on Residuals
Normality Test on Residuals is not necessarily required for OLS estimation, however
it is necessary required for hypothesis testing. Hence, it ensures that the p-values for the t-
test and F-test will be valid.
Jarque-Bera (JB) test, the test for the hypothesis will be rejected if the p-value is less
than or equal to 0.05. Therefore, failing the normality test interprets that 95% confidence
of the data are not normally distributed. For example, conducting a test with a p-value of
0.07 which is greater than 0.05, we do not reject the hypothesis at 5% level of significance
and it can be concluded that residual are not normally distributed.
3.3.5 Multiple Regression Analysis (OLS method)
Regression is a statistical method that is often used to measure the relationship between
dependent variable (y) and independent variable (x). Therefore, Multiple Regression
Analysis Model is utilize to explain the relationship between one dependent variable and
two or more independent variables. Under multiple linear regression model, there are few
models that can be used. Hence, this research study is using Ordinary Least Square (OLS)
method. OLS is a statistical method of analysis that estimates the relationship between the
variables by minimizing the sum of squared differences between the observed values and
corresponding values. The OLS method is used to analyze the data between money supply
and its determinants – inflation, interest rate and economic growth by using its
econometrics data and test.
In this model, regression residuals must be normally distributed, that is, variables must
have normal distribution. The model as well, should be linear in nature. In order to
successfully conduct this analysis, the three diagnostic approaches that explained earlier
must be done. The multiple regression equation for this research is explained as follows
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𝒀 = 𝜶 + 𝜷𝟏 𝑿𝟏 + 𝜷𝟐 𝑿𝟐 + 𝜷𝟑 𝑿𝟑 + 𝜺𝒕 (1)
𝑴𝑺𝟐 = 𝜶 + 𝜷𝟏 𝑰𝑷𝑰 + 𝜷𝟐 𝑪𝑷𝑰 + 𝜷𝟑 𝑩𝑳𝑹 + 𝜺𝒕 (2)
Where,
𝑴𝑺𝟐 = Money supply
𝜶 = Constant term
𝜷𝟏 − 𝜷𝟑 = Model coefficients
𝑰𝑷𝑰 = Industrial Production Index (proxy for economic
growth)
𝑪𝑷𝑰 = Consumer Price Index (proxy for inflation rate)
𝑩𝑳𝑹 = Bank Lending Rate (proxy for interest rate)
𝜺𝒕 = Error term
There are few main test that need to be done under the multiple regression analysis model,
which are as follows:
1. R-squared (𝑹𝟐 )
R-squared is a statistical measure of how much variation of a dependent variable
is explained by independent variables in the regression models. Furthermore, for
multiple regression with several independent variables, the R-squared must be
adjusted. Rules of thumbs, that is, adjusted R-squared values range from 0 to 1
which indicates the percentage value of 0% to 100%. For instance, 100% of R-
squared means that movement of dependent variables are completely explained by
the movements of independent variables. The common rules of thumb for 𝑹𝟐 test
are as follows:
 0.5 to 1.0 = Strong relationship
 0.3 to 0.5 = Moderate relationship
 0.1 to 0.3 = Weak relationship
2. t-Test (P-value)
t-Test is a test used to measure the significance of individual coefficients in the
multiple regression model. In other words, T-test is conducted to check the level of
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significant individually in order to reject the null hypothesis by comparing with the
P-value. The significance values are 1%, 5% and 10%. Assuming a certain value of
significance level, 0.05 for example, and compare it with the P-value. If the P-value
calculated is less than the significance, it can be concluded that the null hypothesis
can be rejected and alternative hypothesis is significant.
3. F-test (P-value)
The purpose of F-test is similar to the t-Test, which is used to test for significance
in the multiple regression model. However, the F-test simultaneously evaluates the
significance of many regression coefficients in the multiple regression model. By
using the same significance level as above, and assuming the P-value is 0.002. The
P-value is less than the significance level of 0.05, hence the data provide sufficient
evidence to reject the null hypothesis. Rejection of null hypothesis has concluded
that at least one of the variable in the regression model is significant.
3.4 Conclusion
In this chapter, relevant measurement and proxies of variables have been determined.
Data are collected based on with monthly frequency, ranging from the period of 2000 to
2019 from World Bank Data, Trading Economics, International Monetary Fund and CEIC
Data websites. In the data processing, the raw data will be transformed and tabulated into
useful information. Hypotheses are readily formulated, and in order to determine
significance between variables, time series model approaches are done. Data are then, run
and analyzed by using the E-views software. The results and findings will be shown in next
chapter.
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CHAPTER 4:
RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
4.1 Introduction
This chapter discusses on the results and findings of data based on the estimation
models that are developed in Chapter 3. Therefore, in this study, Multiple Regression
Analysis is used to examine the relationship between the money supply (DV) and
macroeconomics variables in Asia. The macroeconomics variables involved includes,
economic growth proxy of IPI, inflation rate, proxy of CPI and interest rate with proxy of
BLR (bank lending rate). The data are collected ranging from 2000 to 2019 with frequency
of monthly data distribution, taken from various sources explained in Chapter 3 earlier.
These data, are then, analyzed through economics software – Economic Views (E-views).
E-views is utilized to produce findings on the investigation of the relationship between
both variables, and also to conduct diagnostic checks.
The analysis are begins with diagnostics checks which consist of Variance Inflation
Factor (VIF) procedure, Durbin Watson and Serial LM Correlation Test, Normality Test
and finally ends with the Multiple Regression Analysis (OLS method) with t-Test, F-test
and adjusted R-squared to conclude the whole analysis. This chapter moreover, consists of
five different findings depending on the analysis of five different Asia countries
(Singapore, China, Bangladesh, Malaysia and Philippines) that have explained in scope
studies in Chapter 1.
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4.2 Discussions on the findings
Findings 1:
Singapore
The purpose of using VIF procedure is to check and measure multicollinearity

between dependent variables and independent variables. The aim of this procedure is to
check whether the two variables are correlated or not correlated to each other, and withdraw
the IVs that are highly correlated – scores more than 5.
Table 4.2.1 Singapore Variance Inflation Factors
The above table statistically illustrates the Variance Inflation Factors (VIF)
procedure for Singapore country. All of the data set are in natural logarithm form (LN), the
full raw tabulated data and logarithm data will be disclosed in appendices. Hence,
according to above analysis, shows that all of the variables scored lower than 5 in Centered
VIF, whereby, Industrial Production Index (LNIPI) scores 1.389069, Consumer Price
Index (LNCPI) scores 1.467784 and Bank Lending Rate (LNBLR) scores 1.131853.
Therefore, these independent variables do not suffer with multicollinearity problem due to
low correlation among them and resulting no withdrawal of independent variables.
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Serial Correlation Test is used to check whether the error term in the time series
regression is randomly distributed and not correlated over a period. Therefore, Durbin
Watson (DW) test, Breusch Godfrey LM test and Newey-West Procedure are used to detect
autocorrelation in residuals that could affect the validity of Multiple Regression Model. In
order to conduct this test, the null hypothesis must be derived first and the aim is to reject
the null hypothesis, that is:

4.2.2.1 Durbin Watson (DW) Statistic
Table 4.2.2.1 Singapore OLS Display
The statistical table above shown the OLS Display of Singapore country. Based on the
result given, the Durbin Watson Statistic scores 0.133197, which illustrate that it is lower
than a lower Durbin (Dl). Therefore, it resulting that the error terms are suffer from serial
correlation, thus, unable to reject the null hypothesis. This is due to the fact that the DW
statistic should scores between 1 (lower Durbin) and 4 (upper Durbin) to show that the
residuals are not serially correlated. Therefore, we may proceed to the next autocorrelation
test – Breusch Godfrey LM.
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4.2.2.2 Breusch Godfrey LM
Moving onto the next serial correlation test, Breusch Godfrey LM test. In order to
check for serial correlation, the DW test statistic must follow the Chi-Square distribution.
Table 4.2.2.2 Singapore Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test
The diagram above portrays Singapore Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation Test

for the second order of serial correlation test. Therefore, it shows that the probability value
of Chi-Square Distribution, 0.0000 is less than 0.05 – chosen level, hence interpreting that
serial correlation still exists in the error terms. As for the correction in the residuals, the
third autocorrelation test should be performed – Newey-West procedure.
4.2.2.3 Newey-West Procedure
Table 4.2.2.3.1 Singapore OLS Display
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Table 4.2.2.3.2 Singapore OLS Newey-West Fixed Display
Newey-West Procedure is then, proceed when the time series still suffers a serial
correlation problem in the second order, which where, we do not have enough evidence to
reject the null hypothesis.
The table 4.2.2.3.2 illustrates an Ordinary Least Square Method Newey-West fixed
display for Singapore country derived from E-views. According to the statistical results,
the error terms are now corrected in the Newey-West test, whereby it slightly higher than
the previous Durbin Watson in the first order (shown in table 4.2.2.3.1).
In the Newey-West test, the corrected error terms for each variables are, 0.038072
for Industrial Production Index, 0.15621 for Consumer Price Index and 0.455514 for Bank
Lending Rate. However, the standard errors in the first order form are 0.016090 for IPI,
0.074626 for CPI and 0.310578 for BLR.
Therefore, the third order of autocorrelation test shows that the error terms do not
suffer from a serial correlation problem anymore. This conclude that we have ample
evidence to reject the null hypothesis that the error terms are not serially correlated and
randomly distributed.
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The analysis is then proceed to the third diagnostic test, which is, Normality Test
on Residuals. This method is used to ensure that the residuals are normally distributed in
order to perform parametric tests later in multiple regression analysis. Thus, to carry out
this test, we must use the Jarque-Bera (JB) test method and the null hypothesis must be
developed and be rejected.
𝑯𝟎 = Residuals are not normally distributed

𝑯𝟏 = Residuals are normally distributed
4.2.3.1 Jarque-Bera (JB) Test
In Jarque-Bera (JB) Test, the data analysis should displayed a plotted Histogram
graph on the E-views program.
Diagram 4.2.3.1 Singapore Histogram Normality Test
The diagram above shows a Histogram Normality Test on Residuals of Singapore

Country. Based on the histogram, the p-value of Jarque-Bera test is 0.000163, lower than
the significant value of 0.05. In order to ensure that the residuals are normally distributed,
the Jarque-Bera p-value must be less than 0.05, and for that reason, we have enough
evidence to reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the residuals are normally
distributed for this time series model.
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4.2.4 Multiple Regression Analysis
After passing all three diagnostic checks that we have done before, we proceed to
the Multiple Regression Analysis, which, to elucidate the relationship between both
variables, a dependent variable and multiple independent variables using OLS method. In
order to conduct Multiple Regression Analysis, all data must be in the form of natural
logarithm (LN) and since there is no withdrawal of independent variable during the first
diagnostic check – VIF test, all variables are included.
*Significance value of 1%, 5% and 10%
Table 4.2.4 Singapore OLS Display
Table 4.2.4 displays Singapore Ordinary Least Square display for the Multiple
Regression Analysis. In this analysis, Money Supply (LNMS) is the dependent variable
(y), while, Economic Growth proxy by IPI (LNIPI), Inflation Rate proxy by CPI (LNCPI)
and Interest Rate proxy by BLR (LNBLR) are the independent variables (x). According to
result above, all independent variables are significant as the P-value of each is less than
0.05 or 5%
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The regression equations are developed as follows:
𝒀 = 𝜶 + 𝜷𝟏 𝑰𝑷𝑰 + 𝜷𝟐 𝑪𝑷𝑰 + 𝜷𝟑 𝑩𝑳𝑹 + 𝜺𝒕 (1)
𝑴𝑺𝟐 = −𝟓. 𝟒𝟓𝟖𝟐𝟗𝟕 + 𝟎. 𝟎𝟒𝟕𝟎𝟖𝟖 𝑰𝑷𝑰 + 𝟒. 𝟓𝟎𝟕𝟔𝟑𝟑 𝑪𝑷𝑰 − 𝟏. 𝟓𝟎𝟐𝟑𝟕𝟐 𝑩𝑳𝑹 + 𝜺𝒕
(2)
4.2.4.1 Equation Estimation
Dependent Variable: Money Supply (MS2)
From the equation above, it conveys that Economic Growth (IPI) and Inflation Rate
(CPI) have positive relationship with Money Supply (MS), meanwhile, Interest Rate (BLR)
has negative relationship with Money Supply (MS).
4.2.4.2 Coefficients Justifications
Coefficients (𝛽)
Economic Growth (𝜷𝟏) = 0.047088
If the Money Supply increases by 1%, the Economic Growth (IPI) will increases
by 0.048%. This shows that Economic Growth is significant, and has a positive relationship
with Money Supply.
Inflation Rate (𝜷𝟐) = 4.507633
If the Money Supply increases by 1%, the Inflation Rate (CPI) will increases by
4.51%. This shows that Inflation Rate is significant, and has a positive relationship with
Money Supply.
Interest Rate (𝜷𝟑) = - 1.502372
If the Money Supply increases by 1%, the Interest Rate (BLR) will decreases by
1.50%. This shows that Interest Rate (BLR) is significant, and has a negative relationship
with Money Supply.
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Constant (𝜶) = - 5.458297
The constant value explains that value of dependent variable, Money Supply is -
5.458297 when all independent variables, Economic Growth (IPI), Inflation Rate (CPI)
and Interest Rate (BLR) are value to zero.
Adjusted R-squared (𝑹𝟐 ) = 0.961153

The Adjusted R-Squared is 0.961153, which indicates that 96.12% of the variation
in dependent variable can be explained by all independent variables that are Economic
Growth (IPI), Inflation Rate (CPI) and Interest Rate (BLR) in the model. The remaining of
3.88% are unexplainable.
4.2.4.3 Significance Testing – Significance level of 1%
Variables t-Statistic P-value
Economic Growth (IPI) 2.926463 0.0038
Inflation Rate (CPI) 60.40327 0.0000
Interest Rate (BLR) -4.837346 0.0000
Table 4.2.4.3 Test of Significance
Economic Growth (IPI): Economic Growth is significant at 1% level of significance,

which interprets at 99% confidence level due to 0.0038 p-value.
Inflation Rate (CPI): Inflation Rate is significant at 1% level of significance, interprets at

99% confidence level due to 0.0000 p-value.
Interest Rate (BLR): Interest Rate is significant at 1% level of significance, interprets at

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Hypothesis testing – t-Statistics test

In order to conduct hypothesis testing using t-Statistics test, we need to develop
null and alternative hypotheses for all variables in the model. The hypotheses are as
follows:
supply in Singapore.
supply in Singapore.
in Singapore.
Singapore.
Singapore.
Singapore.
Referring to the t-test, it is proven that we have enough evidence to reject all null
hypotheses of the variables because the p-value is less than chosen significance level, that
is, 0.05. As for that reason, we are able to deduce that Economic Growth, Inflation Rate
and Interest Rate have strong relationship in influencing the movement of Money Supply
in Singapore.
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Hypothesis testing – F-Statistics test

In order to conduct hypothesis testing using F-Statistics test, we, first need to
develop null and alternative hypothesis in the model.
1. Hypothesis 1
𝐻0 = There is no significant relationship between at least one of macroeconomic
variables and money supply in Singapore.
𝐻1 = There is a significant relationship between at least one of macroeconomic
variables and money supply in Singapore.
F-Statistics (p-value) = 0.0000

Based on the F-test, we can conclude that we have strong evidence to reject the null
hypothesis because the p-value is less than 0.05. Hence, it clarifies that there is a significant
relationship between at least one of macroeconomic variables and money supply in
Singapore.
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Findings 2:
China
The aim of using the VIF procedure is to test and measure the multi-collinearity
between dependent variables and independent variables. The purpose of this technique is
to test whether or not the two variables are correlated, and to eliminate the IVs that are
strongly correlated – scores greater than 5.
Table 4.2.1 China Variance Inflation Factors
The following table shows statistically the Variance Inflation Factors (VIF) method
for China. Accordingly, based on the above study, it is shown that all variables scored
below 5 in the Centered VIF, where the Industrial Production Index (LNIPI) scores
1.973677, the Consumer Price Index (LNCPI) scores 1.747217 and the Bank Lending Rate
(LNBLR) scores 1.394005. As a result, these independent variables do not suffer from a
multicollinearity problem due to a weak correlation between them and resulting in no
deletion of independent variables.
Serial Correlation Test is used to verify if the term error in the time series regression
is randomly distributed and not clustered over a period of time. Therefore, the Durbin
Watson (DW) test, the Breusch Godfrey LM test and the Newey-West technique are used
to detect autocorrelation in residues that could influence the validity of the Multiple
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Regression Model. In order to conduct this test, the null hypothesis must be derived first
and the aim is to reject the null hypothesis, that is:
Table 4.2.2.1 China OLS Display
The statistical table above shown the OLS Display of China country. Based on the
result given, the Durbin Watson Statistic scores 0.206935, which illustrate that it is lower
than a lower Durbin (dL). Therefore, it resulting that the error terms are suffer from serial
correlation, thus, we do not reject the null hypothesis. This is due to the fact that the DW
statistic should scores between 1 (lower Durbin) and 4 (upper Durbin) to show that the
residuals are not serially correlated. Therefore, we may proceed to the next autocorrelation
test – Breusch Godfrey LM.
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Moving onto the next serial correlation test, Breusch Godfrey LM test. In order to check
for serial correlation, the DW test statistic must follow the Chi-Square distribution.
Table 4.2.2.2 China Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test
The diagram above shows the China Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation Test for
the second order serial correlation test. It indicates, therefore, that the probability value of
Chi-Square Distribution, 0.0000, is less than 0.05, the chosen point, thus interpreting that
the serial correlation still exists in the terms of error. As for the correction in the residuals,
the third autocorrelation test should be performed – Newey-West procedure.
Table 4.2.2.3.1 China OLS Display
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Table 4.2.2.3.2 China OLS Newey-West Fixed Display
Table 4.2.2.3.2 displays the Ordinary Least Square Method Newey, a fixed display
for China derived from E-views. According to the statistical tests, the error terms are now
corrected in the Newey-West study, which is significantly higher than the previous Durbin
Watson in the first order (see Table 4.2.2.3.1).
In the Newey-West check, the corrected error conditions for each variable are
0.469622 for the industrial production Index, 0.157484 for the Consumer Price Index and
0.119868 for the Bank Lending Rate. Nevertheless, the typical defects in the first order
form are 0.297300 for IPI, 0.076356 for CPI and 0.068870 for BLR.
As a consequence, the third order autocorrelation test shows that the error terms no
longer suffer from a serial correlation problem. It means that we have definite evidence to
dismiss the null hypothesis that the terms of the error are not serially associated and
uniformly distributed.
The analysis is then proceed to the third diagnostic test, which is, Normality Test
on Residuals. This method is used to ensure that the residuals are normally distributed in
order to perform parametric tests later in multiple regression analysis. Thus, to carry out
this test, we must use the Jarque-Bera (JB) test method and the null hypothesis must be
developed and be rejected.
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The diagram above shows a Histogram Normality Test on Residuals of China
Diagram 4.2.3.1 China Histogram Normality Test
the Jarque-Bera p-value must be less than 0.05, and for that reason, we are able to reject
the null hypothesis and conclude that the residuals are normally distributed for this time
series model.
After passing all three diagnostic tests that we have done before, we will proceed
to the Multiple Regression Analysis, which will explain the relationship between the two
variables, the dependent variable and multiple independent variables using the OLS test.
In order to conduct Multiple Regression Analysis, all data must be in the form of natural
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Table 4.2.4 China OLS Display
Table 4.2.4 shows the China Ordinary Least Square display for the Multiple Regression
Analysis. In this analysis, Money Supply (LNMS) is the dependent variable (y) while
Economic Growth proxy (LNIPI), Inflation Rate proxy (LNCPI) and Interest Rate proxy
(LNBLR) are the independent variables (x). According to result above, all independent
variables are significant as the P-value of each is less than 0.05 or 5%

𝑴𝑺𝟐 = −𝟐𝟑, 𝟐𝟒𝟓𝟔𝟖 + 𝟏. 𝟖𝟕𝟒𝟒𝟓𝟏 𝑰𝑷𝑰 + 𝟔. 𝟕𝟗𝟔𝟕𝟏𝟔 𝑪𝑷𝑰 − 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏𝟒𝟕𝟏𝟗 𝑩𝑳𝑹 +
𝜺𝒕 (2)
Dependent Variable: Money Supply (MS2). From the equation above, it conveys that
Economic Growth (IPI) and Inflation Rate (CPI) have positive relationship with Money
Supply (MS), meanwhile, Interest Rate (BLR) has negative relationship with Money
Supply (MS).
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Coefficients (𝛽)
with Money Supply.
Inflation Rate (𝜷𝟐) = 6.796716
6.80%. This shows that Inflation Rate is significant, and has a positive relationship with
Money Supply.
Interest Rate (𝜷𝟑) = - 0.014719
0.01%. This shows that Inflation Rate is insignificant, and has a negative relationship with
Money Supply.
Constant (𝜶) = - 23.24568

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Interest Rate (BLR): Interest Rate is insignificant. P-value is more than the chosen
significance level.

follows:
supply in China.
supply in China.
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in China.
China.
China.
China.
Referring to the t-test, it is proven that we have enough evidence to reject only first
and second null hypothesis of the variables because the p-value is less than chosen
significance level, that is, 0.05. As for that reason, we are able to deduce that only
Economic Growth and Inflation Rate have a strong relationship in influencing the
movement of Money Supply in China.

1. Hypothesis 1
variables and money supply in China.
variables and money supply in China.

relationship between at least one of macroeconomic variables and money supply in China.
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Findings 3:
Bangladesh
The purpose of using VIF procedure is to check and measure multicollinearity

between dependent variables and independent variables. The aim of this VIF procedure is
to check whether the two variables are correlated or not correlated to each other, and
withdraw the independent variables that are highly correlated which is scores more than 5.
Table 4.2.1 Bangladesh Variance Inflation Factor
From the table above, statically show the Variance Inflation Factors (VIF)
procedure for Bangladesh country. All of the data set are in natural logarithm form (LN),
the full raw tabulated data and logarithm data will be disclosed in appendices. Hence,
according to above analysis, shows that all of the variables scored lower than 5 in Centered
VIF, whereby, Industrial Production Index (LNIPI) scores 1.675207, Consumer Price
Index (LNCPI) scores 1.375386 and Bank Lending Rate (LNBLR) scores 1.267049.
Therefore, these independent variables do not suffer with multicollinearity problem due to
low correlation among them and resulting no withdrawal of independent variables.
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Serial Correlation Test is used to check whether the error term in the time series
regression is randomly distributed and not correlated over a period. Therefore, Durbin
Watson (DW) test, Breusch Godfrey LM test and Newey-West Procedure are used to detect
autocorrelation in residuals that could affect the validity of Multiple Regression Model. In
order to conduct this test, the null hypothesis must be derived first and the aim is to reject
the null hypothesis, that is:
Table 4.2.2.1 Bangladesh OLS display
From the table above shown the OLS Display of Bangladesh country. Based on the
result given, the Durbin Watson Statistic scores 1.876098 which illustrate that it is between
1 until 4 which is 1 - Lower Dublin (dL) and 4 – Upper Dublin (dU). Therefore, it resulting
that the error terms do not suffer from serial correlation, thus, able to reject the null
hypothesis. This is due to the fact that the DW statistic should scores between 1 (lower
Durbin) and 4 (upper Durbin) to show that the residuals are not serially correlated. Thus,
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we are able to reject the null hypothesis in this first order because the error terms are not
serially correlated.
The analysis then proceeds with third diagnostic test which is Normality Test on
Residuals. This method is used to ensure that the residuals are normally distributed in order
to perform parametric tests later in multiple regression analysis. Thus, to carry out this test,
we must use the Jarque-Bera (JB) test method and the null hypothesis must be developed
and be rejected.

Diagram 4.2.3.1 Bangladesh Histogram Normality Test
The diagram above shows a Histogram Normality Test on Residuals of Bangladesh

the Jarque-Bera p-value must be less than 0.05, and for that reason, we are able to reject
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the null hypothesis and conclude that the residuals are normally distributed for this time
series model.
the Multiple Regression Analysis, which, to elucidate the relationship between both
order to measure relationships among the variables in time series model, we need to use a
group of natural logarithm data, which is include all independent variable because there
are no withdrawn on the VIF. – VIF test, all variables are included.
Table 4.2.4 Bangladesh OLS Display
Table 4.2.4 displays Bangladesh Ordinary Least Square display for the Multiple
result above, Economic Growth proxy by IPI (LNIPI) and Interest rate proxy by (BLR) are
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significant as the P-value of each is less than 0.05 or 5%. While Inflation Rate proxy by
CPI (LNCPI) is insignificant.

𝑴𝑺𝟐 = 𝟓. 𝟐𝟔𝟔𝟐𝟒𝟕 + 𝟏. 𝟕𝟓𝟗𝟓𝟐𝟗 𝑰𝑷𝑰 + 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟔𝟐𝟑𝟔 𝑪𝑷𝑰 + 𝟎. 𝟓𝟓𝟗𝟔𝟕𝟔 𝑩𝑳𝑹 + 𝜺𝒕
(2)
From the equation above, it conveys that Economic Growth (IPI), Inflation Rate
(CPI) and Interest rate (BLR) have positive relationship with Money Supply (MS).
Coefficients (𝛽)
Economic Growth (𝜷𝟏) = 𝟏. 𝟕𝟓𝟗𝟓𝟐𝟗
with Money Supply.
Inflation Rate (𝜷𝟐) = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟔𝟐𝟑𝟔
0.026%. This shows that Inflation Rate is insignificant, and has a positive relationship with
Money Supply.
Interest Rate (𝜷𝟑) = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟓𝟗𝟔𝟕𝟔
If the Money Supply increases by 1%, the Interest Rate (BLR) will increase by
0.56%. This shows that Interest rate is significant, and has a positive relationship with
Money Supply.
Constant (𝜶) = 𝟓. 𝟐𝟔𝟔𝟐𝟒𝟕
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Economic Growth 45.87586 0.0000
(IPI)
Interest Rate (BLR) 3.999054 0.0001

Inflation Rate (CPI): Inflation Rate is insignificant (p-value is 0.2786)

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follows:
supply.
supply.

𝐻0 = There is no significant relationship between inflation rate and money supply.
𝐻2 = There is a significant relationship between inflation rate and money supply.

𝐻0 = There is no significant relationship between interest rate and money supply.
𝐻3 = There is a significant relationship between interest rate and money supply
Referring to the t-test, it shows that we have enough evidence to reject only the first
and third null hypotheses of the variables because the p-value is less than chosen
significance level, that is, 0.05. With that reason, we are able to deduce that only Economic
Growth and Interest Rate have strong relationship in influencing the movement of Money
Supply in Bangladesh.
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1. Hypothesis 1
variables and money supply in Bangladesh.
variables and money supply in Bangladesh.

relationship between at least one of macroeconomic variables and money supply in
Bangladesh.
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Findings 4:
Malaysia
The objective of using VIF procedure is to check and measure multicollinearity

between dependent variables and independent variables. The purpose of this procedure is
to check whether the two variables are correlated or not correlated to one another, and
withdraw the IVs that are highly correlated – scores more than 5.
Table 4.2.1 Malaysia Variance Inflation Factors
Table 4.2.1.1 Malaysia Rerun Variance Inflation Factors
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The table 4.2.1 above illustrates the Variance Inflation Factors (VIF) procedure for
Malaysia country. All of the data set are in natural logarithm form (LN). Based on the
above analysis, it shows that Industrial Production Index (LNIPI) scores 3.755595 and
Base Lending Rate (LNBLR) scores 4.633335 which are lower than 5 in Centered VIF
with the exception of Consumer Price Index (LNCPI) scores 7.301805. Therefore, these
independent variables do suffer with multicollinearity problem due to high correlation and
resulting to pull back Consumer Price Index (LNCPI) in the table 4.2.2. It evidences of no
severe multicollinearity and they are substantial to remain in time series model.
Serial Correlation Test is utilized to check whether the error term in the time series
regression is randomly distributed and not correlated over a period. In this way, Durbin
Watson (DW) test, Breusch Godfrey LM test and Newey-West Procedure are utilized to
detect autocorrelation in residuals that could affect the results of Multiple Regression
Model. In order to conduct this test, the null hypothesis must be derived first and the aim
is to reject the null hypothesis, that is:
Table 4.2.2.1 Malaysia OLS Display
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The table above shown the OLS Display of Malaysia country. The Durbin Watson (DW)
statistic is a test for autocorrelation in the residuals from a statistical regression analysis.
The Durbin-Watson statistic will always have a value between 0 and 4. In view of the
outcome given, the Durbin Watson Statistic scores 0.186146, which illustrate that it is
lower than a lower Durbin (dL). Therefore, it resulting that the error terms are experience
the serial correlation, thus, unable to reject the null hypothesis. This is because of the way
that the DW statistic should scores between 1 (lower Durbin) and 4 (upper Durbin) to show
that the residuals are not serially correlated. Therefore, we may continue to the following
autocorrelation test – Breusch Godfrey LM.
Next, moving onto the second order of serial correlation test which is Breusch
Godfrey LM test. In order to check for serial correlation, the DW test statistic must follow
the Chi-Square distribution.
Table 4.2.2.2 Malaysia Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test
The diagram above portrays Malaysia Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation Test.

Therefore, it indicates that the probability value of Chi-Square Distribution, 0.0000 is less
than 0.05 – chosen level, hence interpreting that serial correlation still exists in the error
terms. As for the correction in the residuals, the third autocorrelation test should be
performed – Newey-West procedure.
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Newey-West Procedure is then, continue when the time series still suffers a serial
correlation problem in the second order, which where, we need more proof to reject the
null hypothesis.
Table 4.2.2.3.1 Malaysia OLS Display
Table 4.2.2.3.2 Malaysia OLS Newey-West Fixed Display
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The table 4.2.2.3.2 shows an Ordinary Least Square Method Newey fixed display
for Malaysia country derived from E-views. As indicated by the statistical results, the error
terms are presently corrected in the Newey-West test, whereby it slightly higher than the
previous Durbin Watson in the first order (shown in table 4.2.2.3.1).
In the Newey-West test, the corrected error terms for each variable are, 0.269104
for Industrial Production Index and 0.228283 for Bank Lending Rate. Nonetheless, the
standard errors in the first order form are 0.138572 for IPI and 0.127549 for BLR.
Therefore, the third order autocorrelation test shows that the error terms do not
experience a serial correlation problem any longer. This conclude that we have sufficient
proof to reject the null hypothesis that the error terms are not serially correlated and
randomly distributed.
The analysis is then continuing to the third diagnostic test, which is, Normality Test
on Residuals. This method is utilized to guarantee that the residuals are normally
distributed so as to perform parametric tests later in multiple regression analysis. Thus, to
carry out this test, we must use the Jarque-Bera (JB) test method and the null hypothesis
must be developed and be rejected.

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In Jarque-Bera (JB) Test, the data analysis should have displayed a plotted Histogram
Diagram 4.2.3.1 Malaysia Histogram Normality Test
The diagram above shows a Histogram Normality Test on Residuals of Malaysia

Country. In view of the histogram, the p-value of Jarque-Bera test is 0.076139, above than
the significant value of 0.05. The Jarque-Bera p-value of 0.07 which is greater than 0.05,
we do not reject the hypothesis at 5% level of significant. In other words, the data does not
come from a normal distribution.
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Subsequent to passing every one of the three diagnostic checks that we have done
before, we continue to the Multiple Regression Analysis, which, to clarify the relationship
between both variables, a dependent variable and multiple independent variables using
OLS method. In order to conduct Multiple Regression Analysis, all data must be in the
form of natural logarithm (LN) and since there is one withdrawal of independent variable
during the first diagnostic check – VIF test, Consumer Price Index (CPI) is excluded.
Table 4.2.4 Malaysia OLS Display
Table 4.2.4 shows Malaysia Ordinary Least Square display for the Multiple
(y), while, Economic Growth proxy by IPI (LNIPI) and Interest Rate proxy by BLR
(LNBLR) are the independent variables (x). According to result above, all independent
variables are not significant as the P-value of each is more than 0.05 or 5%.
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𝑴𝑺𝟐 = 𝟏𝟎. 𝟔𝟔𝟎𝟓𝟔 + 𝟏. 𝟐𝟒𝟏𝟕𝟏𝟓 𝑰𝑷𝑰 − 𝟐. 𝟑𝟔𝟎𝟑𝟐𝟖 𝑩𝑳𝑹 + 𝜺𝒕 (2)
From the equation above, it conveys that Economic Growth (IPI) has positive
relationship with Money Supply (MS), meanwhile, Interest Rate (BLR) has negative
relationship with Money Supply (MS).
Coefficients (𝛽)
with Money Supply.
Interest Rate (𝜷𝟑) = -2.360328
1.50%. This shows that Interest Rate is significant, and has a negative relationship with
Money Supply.
Constant (𝜶) = 10.66056
The constant value explains that value of dependent variable, Money Supply is
10.66056 when all independent variables, Economic Growth (IPI) and Interest Rate (BLR)
are value to zero.

Growth (IPI) and Interest Rate (BLR) in the model. The remaining of 12.95% are
unexplainable.
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Economic Growth (IPI): The p-value is 0.0000 which interprets at 99% confidence level
because the Economic Growth is significant at 1% level of significance.

follows:
supply in Malaysia.
supply in Malaysia.

Malaysia
Malaysia.
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Referring to the t-test, it is proven that we have enough evidence to not reject all
null hypotheses of the variables because the p-value is more than chosen significance level,
`which is, 0.05. As for that reason, we are able to deduce that Economic Growth and
Interest Rate have less relationship in influencing the movement of Money Supply in
Malaysia.

1. Hypothesis 1
variables and money supply in Malaysia.
variables and money supply in Malaysia.

The F statistic must be used in combination with the p value when you are deciding
if your overall results are significant. Based on the F-test, we can conclude that we have
strong evidence to not reject the null hypothesis because the p-value is more than 0.05.
Hence, it indicates that there is an insignificant relationship between at least one of
macroeconomic variables and money supply in Malaysia.
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Findings 5:
Philippines
The objective of the VIF procedure is to verify and measure the correlation between
dependent variables and independent variables. The purpose of the application is to test
whether the two variables are correlated or not correlated to each other, and withdraw the
IVs that are highly correlated – scores more than 5.
Table 4.2.1 Philippines Variance Inflation Factor
Table 4.2.1 above shows Variance Inflation Factors (VIF) of all independent
variables, the Industrial Production Index (IPI), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the
Base Lending Rate (BLR). All data sets are in the form of a natural logarithm (LN). If the
value of the Centered VIF is greater than 5, multicollinearity is severe. Accordingly, from
the above analysis, all variables scored below 5 in the Centered VIF, where the Industrial
Production Index (LNIPI) scored 1.747712, the Consumer Price Index (LNCPI) scored
4.499264 and the Bank Lending Rate (LNBLR) scored 4.279215. Thus, the variance
inflation factor of all independent variables shows which multi - collinearity is not severe.
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Serial Correlation Test is used to check whether the term error in the time series
regression is distributed randomly and not correlated over a period of time. And hence, the
Durbin Watson (DW) test, the Breusch Godfrey LM test and the Newey-West procedure
are used to identify auto - correlation in residuals that could affect the results of the Multiple
Regression Model. In order to conduct this test, the null hypothesis must be derived first
and the aim is to reject the null hypothesis, that is:
Table 4.2.2.1 Durbin Watson Statistic
The OLS Display of the Philippines country is shown in the statistical table above. It is
used to determine if there would be a first order series correlation in the error term of the
equation by analyzing the residual value of that equation. Based on the result given, the
Durbin Watson statistic is 0.205004, which shows that it is lower than the lower Durbin
(dL) which is between 1 and 4.
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Therefore, it shows that this test is suffers a severe serial correlation at 1st order,
thus, unable to reject the null hypothesis. This is due to the fact that the DW statistic should
scores between 1 (lower Durbin) and 4 (upper Durbin) to show that the residuals are not
serially correlated. Therefore, we may proceed to the next autocorrelation test – Breusch
Godfrey LM.
Next is Durbin Watson statistic through LM Test shows a for a second order of
Serial Correlation Test which is Breusch Godfey LM Test, the DW test statistic must
follow the Chi-Square distribution.
Table 4.2.2.2 Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test
The table above the Philippine Breusch-Godfrey shows that the probability value
of Chi-Square Distribution, 0.0000, is less than 0.05 – the chosen level, thus interpreting
that serial correlation still exists. As for the residual correction, the third serial correlation
test – Newey-West procedure should be performed.
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Table 4.2.2.3.1
The above figure shows the Durbin Watson Test for the first order of the Series
Correlation Test. Shows that the standard error is smaller than the Newey Test. As a result,
the Industrial Production Index (IPI) is 0.034589, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is
0.052676 and the Base lending rate (BLR) is 0.043531.
Table 4.2.2.3.2 below shows the Ordinary Least Square Method Newey-West fixed
display for the Philippines country derived from E-views. As per that statistical analysis,
the error terms are now corrected in the Newey-West test, that are slightly higher than the
previous Durbin Watson in the first order (see Table 4.2.2.3.1).
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Table 4.2.2.3.2
In the Newey-West test, the corrected error terms for each variables are, 0.059974
for Industrial Production Index, 0.095382 for Consumer Price Index and 0.077001 for Bank
Lending Rate.
As a result, the third order of the auto - correlation test shows that the error terms no longer
suffer from a serial correlation problem. This concludes that we have strong evidence to
reject the null hypothesis that the terms with error are not serially correlated and randomly
distributed.
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The analysis then will proceed to the third diagnostic test, the Residuals Normality
Test. This method is used to make sure that the residual are normally distributed in order
to perform parametric tests later in multiple regression analysis. Therefore, in order to carry
out this test, we have to use the Jarque-Bera (JB) test method, and the null hypothesis must
be developed and rejected.
In the Jarque-Bera (JB) test, a plotted Histogram graph on the E-views program
will be displayed in the data analysis. The diagram below shows the Residuals of the
Philippines Country Histogram Normality Test. It is used to determine whether sample or
any data group fits the standard normal distribution.
Table 4.2.3.1 Jarque-Bera Test
Based on the histogram, the p-value for the Jarque-Bera test is 0.026107, smaller
than the significant value of 0.05. In order to ensure that the residuals are normally
distributed, the Jarque-Bera p-value must be less than 0.05, the mean value must be the
same as the mean value of the Jarque-Bera p-value and the skewness value must be around
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zero. Therefore, we are in a position to reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the
residuals are normally distributed for this time series model.
the Multiple Regression Analysis, which, to evaluate the relationship between both
order to conduct Multiple Regression Analysis, all data must be in the form of natural
Table 4.2.4 Multiple Regression
Table 4.2.4 shows Philippines Ordinary Least Square display for the Multiple
result above, all independent variables are significant as the P-value of each is less than
0.05 or 5%
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𝑴𝑺𝟐 = −𝟏. 𝟐𝟒𝟎𝟓𝟎𝟕 + 𝟎. 𝟑𝟕𝟕𝟎𝟓𝟔 𝑰𝑷𝑰 + 𝟐. 𝟓𝟐𝟕𝟓𝟖𝟗 𝑪𝑷𝑰 − 𝟎. 𝟐𝟔𝟕𝟕𝟑𝟓 𝑩𝑳𝑹 +
𝜺𝒕 (2)
From the equation above, it conveys that Economic Growth (IPI) and Inflation Rate
(CPI) have positive relationship with Money Supply (MS2), meanwhile, Interest Rate
(BLR) has negative relationship with Money Supply (MS2).
Coefficients (𝛽)
If there is an increase in Money Supply by 1%, the Economic Growth (IPI) will
increases by 0.038%. This shows that Economic Growth is significant, and has a positive
relationship with Money Supply.
Inflation Rate (𝜷𝟐) = 𝟐. 𝟓𝟐𝟕𝟓𝟖𝟗
If there is an increase of Money Supply by 1%, the Inflation Rate (CPI) will
increases by 2.53%. This shows that Inflation Rate is significant, and has a positive
relationship between Money Supply and inflation rate.
Interest Rate (𝜷𝟑) =−𝟎. 𝟐𝟔𝟕𝟕𝟑𝟓
If there in Money Supply increase by 1%, the Interest Rate (BLR) will decreases
by 0.26%. This shows that Interest Rate is significant, and has a negative relationship with
Money Supply.
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Constant (𝜶) = - 1.240507
The constant value is the value of dependent variable-Money Supply. The value is
-1.240507 when all independent variables, Economic Growth (IPI), Inflation Rate (CPI)

1.56% of total variation cannot be explained after adjusting for the degree of freedom.
Economic Growth (IPI): The probability t-test is 0.0000 which is less than 0.05. Based
on the test that has been taken shows that t-test is statistically significant at 1% level of
significance.


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follows:
supply in Philippines.
supply in Philippines.

in Philippines.
Philippines.

Philippines.
Philippines.
Referring to the t-test, it is proven that we have enough evidence to reject all null
hypotheses of the variables because the p-value is less than chosen significance level, that
is, 0.05. As for that reason, we are able to deduce that Economic Growth, Inflation Rate
and Interest Rate have strong relationship in influencing the movement of Money Supply
in Philippines.
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1. Hypothesis 1
variables and money supply in Philippines.
variables and money supply in Philippines.

This study also uses F-test to see if a group of variables are jointly significant. Prob
(F-statistics) is used for testing the overall significance of the regression model. If Prob (F-
statistics) is lower than 0.05 then the model is fit.
hypothesis because the p-value is less than 0.05. Hence, it indicates that there is
independent variables can influence the Money Supply in Philippines.
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4.3 Conclusion
In conclusion, all the empirical results have been shown clearly in this chapter. We are
using the Ordinary Least Square(OLS) method to identify the relationship between
Economic Growth proxy by Industrial Production Index(IPI), Interest Rate proxy by Base
Lending Rate(BLR) and Inflation Rates proxy by Consumer Price Index(CPI) whether has
relationship with Money Supply or not. Therefore, a few test have been done for the
country of Malaysia, China, Bangladesh and Philippines and Malaysia. There are different
result showed for each country for example for Malaysia the results on the Jarque-Bera
(JB) Test showed that all independent variables are not significant as the P-Value of each
more that 0.05 or 5% and the residual is not normally distributed. While for other countries
– Singapore, China and Bangladesh shows a normally distributed. Last but not least, after
completing the findings analysis and discussion, we finally can know the real relationship
either positive or negative, between macroeconomics variables and money for each country
in Asia. Results summarization and recommendations are the discussed in the next chapter,
Chapter 5.
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Chapter 5
Conclusion and Recommendation
5.1 Introduction
After analyzing and interpreting all five countries’ results from the regression analysis in
Chapter 4, we may now proceed with conclusion and recommendation to summarize the
whole study regarding the relationship between macroeconomic variables and money
supply (MS2) in selected Asian countries. Those variables are include, economic growth
(IPI), inflation rate (CPI) and interest rate (BLR). With full brief of summarization of the
findings, some relevant recommendations also are proposed for this study.
5.2 Conclusion of the findings
The main objective for this study is to determine the relationship between
macroeconomic variables and money supply is Asia, which, money supply acted as the
dependent variable. The study also aims to examine which significant variables that
influencing money supply in chosen Asian countries. We have also, selected five countries
across Asia, which are, Singapore, China, Bangladesh, Malaysia and Philippines and have
investigated what macroeconomic variables involved in influencing the growth of money
supply 2 (M2/MS2). The results for each findings are tabulated as follows:
Findings 1 - Singapore
Variables Result Relationship
Economic Growth Significant Positive
Inflation Rate Significant Positive
Interest Rate Significant Negative
Findings 2 - China
Interest Rate Insignificant -
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Findings 3 - Bangladesh
Inflation Rate Insignificant -
Interest Rate Significant Positive
Findings 4 - Malaysia
Inflation Rate Insignificant at VIF -
Findings 5 - Philippines
Table 5.2 Results of Findings for Each Country
Based on summarized tabulated data above, it clearly portrays that only
macroeconomic variables in Singapore and Philippines have significant relationship with
money supply. The relationship above explains that, if economic growth and inflation rate
increases at particular rate, money supply will follow and increases at the same rate. As of
negative relationship, if interest rate in both countries decreases at particular rate, resulting
that money supply (M2/MS2) will decreases too.
However, the result for China, Bangladesh and Malaysia are differ, whereby China
resulting an insignificant on interest rate variables. Bangladesh, on the hand, resulting an
insignificant on inflation and it interest interpreting a positive relationship. Malaysia,
however, had encounter a withdrawal of inflation rate variable at the first diagnostic checks
– VIF, which also resulting an insignificant relationship.
Therefore, it can be deduced that only economic growth variable has a significant
relationship with money supply in these Asian countries. It also illustrates that the
relationship between each variables are as well depending on the country itself and the
results are varies and not limited.
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5.3 Implication of the research study
5.3.1 Significance to Central Bank as a policymaker
The results from this study give benefits to the Central Bank about the relationship
between inflation and money supply in Singapore, China, Bangladesh, Malaysia and
Philippine. Firstly, the inflation can boost growth. At time of very low inflation, the
economy may be stuck in a recession. Arguably focusing on a higher rate of inflation can
empower a boost in economic growth. Therefore, the view is controversial because not all
economist would support targeting a higher inflation rate. The government would rather
have moderate inflation than no inflation at all. This is because a moderate inflation rate
reduces the real value of debt. If there is deflation, the real value of debt increases leading
to a squeeze of disposable income. Moderate rate inflation is a sign of a good economy.
With the economic growth, we usually get a degree of inflation.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) are widely used for the index linking of social benefits
such as pensions, unemployment benefits and other government payments, and also as
escalators for adjusting prices in long-term contracts (Geneva, 2004). For the situation in
Singapore, China, Bangladesh and Philippines by taking advantage on the rising CPI,
government wish to expand their capital by issuing money supply at a higher cost. This is
because the positively relationship between inflation and money supply for this countries.
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5.3.2 Significance to existing and potential investor

Results displayed were helpful investors for decision making to maximize their
profit to beneficial them when reveling into the money supply in Asia countries such as
Singapore, China, Bangladesh, Malaysian and Philippines. Besides, this part of the
researched empower investors to understand more on how these economic growth works
to make a different on money supply in Asia countries. It is because industrial production
index influence the money demand by financial conditions and investor certainty.
According to Chirwa, T. G., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2016), the main reasoned why money
supply stability matters to economic growth was the uncertainty it creates with respect to
the prediction of the future value of economic variables. Temporal uncertainty, where
investors held on to their investments until the macroeconomic environment has stabilized,
if not controlled this may lead to capital flight.
As for instance, industrial production index had been demonstrated to clarify

money supply in Asia countries. According to IMF data (2019) arranged industrial
production index had been moving relentlessly throughout the last 19 years in Asia
countries respectively. Since predictability in economic growth proxy industrial production
index (IPI) will brought positive relationship to the money supply they had remained above
the radar from the beginning. As from the researched studied since the fluctuation was not
as high as other variable, economic growth by proxy industrial production index should be
the variable that investor worry the least.
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5.3.3 Significance to future researchers
The results were helpful the future researchers in providing a better understanding
regarding the relationship between interest rate and money supply in Asia countries such
as Singapore, China, Bangladesh, Malaysia and Philippines. Furthermore, this part of the
researched empower future researcher to understand more on how these base lending rates
works to make a different on money supply in Asia countries. Lower interest rates make it
cheaper to borrow. This tends to encourage spending and investment. This leads to higher
aggregate demand (AD) and economic growth. Thus, lower interest rates also make the
cost of borrowing cheaper. It will encourage consumers and firms to take out loans to
finance greater spending and investment.
As for instance, base lending rates had been demonstrated to clarify money supply
in Asia countries. According to IMF data (2019) arranged base lending rates had been
moving relentlessly throughout the last 19 years in Asia countries respectively. Since
predictability in interest rate proxy base lending rates (BLR) brought negative relationship
to the money supply in Singapore, China, Malaysia and Bangladesh.
5.3.4 Significance to the firm

The results from this studies give significant implications benefit especially to firm
in the particular industry about the relationship between money supply and economic
growth. Firstly, the results show that performance of the firm will improved as the
profitability and size of firm increase. This was because economic growth were significant
and positively related to money supply. The firm should considered these variables when
making decision. Therefore, the firm should know how to manage their revenue to enable
them to allocate higher payment to their shareholders and welcome new investors.
Consequently, firm able to expand the money supply to support up economic

growth performance. It was because the firm appeared to have more funds to invest in
economic growth as the money supply in the economy grew by making the business more
competitive and in good demand. One final catalyst to highlight was flow of funds in the
economy, monetary policy in Asia countries such as Singapore, China, Bangladesh,
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Malaysian and Philippines depends on money supply excessively to achieve economic

growth performance.
5.4 Limitations of study

Throughout this study, there are several limitations that have been found in order to
complete the research. As we know that every research has its difficulty to get a perfect
process until it finish. So the limitations of our study as follows:
1. Time
To do a research really need time consuming to collect all data. In the middle of
time, COVID-19 Disease happened and government has applied the Movement
Control Order (MCO) period to all their citizen, as for student we need to attend
online classes and did online consulting for this research which is a bit difficult for
us to understand. We have to managed time properly between attend classes, doing
house chores and find the research data. As we know, to do a research need a long
time in order to find and read the articles or journal to have better understanding.
2. Data collection
We are using several ways to collect all the data for each country but not all the
sources can be used because of the limitations and there are not aligned. As for this
research requires us to use monthly data so we unable to use data from one sources
only because there are some variables that do not have monthly data in their
collection. For example, for Money Supply, M2 we are using data from Computer
and Enterprise Investigations Conference(CEIC) to get the raw data while the other
variables we need to find the data at Trading Economics or the other trusted sources
such as Knoema World’s Data. Therefore, it’s really confusing us and make us to
work in detail to make sure the data are aligned together even though from different
sources.
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3. Accessibility of data.
We need to ensure this study are effective and all the data collected are correct. But
it is hard for us to gather all the reliable information because some of the resources
are very limited to access. For example, there are some journal or articles that
required us to subscribes or sign up first in order to get the full text. In fact, even
database from UiTM Library itself has limited access to their subscription only.
Therefore, this could limit our resources findings for this study.
5.5 Recommendation for future research

This research aims to reveal the relevance relationship between money supply and
macroeconomic variables which is economic growth, inflation and interest rate. Five
country that we choose is Singapore, China, Bangladesh, Malaysia and Filipina. From the
country that we choose, it will have different finding and result for each country. So, we
decide to give recommendation for the future research in term of choose the right country,
use different macroeconomic variables, use different proxy for macroeconomic variables
and use panel data regression. There is some recommendation for the future research which
is:
1. Use different macroeconomic variable.

For the recommendation, we can advices to use the different macroeconomic
variable such as exchange rate. Exchange rate is the value of one country currency
versus the currency of another country. For the exchange rate we can use foreign
direct investment for the as a proxy for the exchange rate. Basically, foreign direct
investment takes place when an investor establishes foreign business operations or
acquires foreign business assets in a foreign company. So, from that we can see
how much value of one country currency according to the country currency. There
is negative relationship between money supply and exchange which is when
increase in the money supply could lead to a depreciation in the exchange rate. This
can be related during inflation, price of good will increase it is because an
increasing in money supply. This domestic inflation will creates a less competitive
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good and export demand will fall. Therefore, the lower demand in currency will
resulting a lower exchange rate.
2. Choose the right country.

Country also important factor that can determine whether our research doing great
or not at the end of the research. So, we must choose the right country according to
the macroeconomic variable that we want to study. When we choose the right
countries, we can get a better finding and result at the end of the research. For
example, when we want to make research about exchange rate, we need to find
journal article that can support the exchange rate problem in the country. When we
have enough article that say those country have problem on exchange rate, then we
can choose the right country for the research.
3. Use different proxy for macroeconomic variable

Proxy is an important element in research. It is to ensure we have a suitable
measurement for the macroeconomic variables. We want to recommend by using
different proxy for each of the macroeconomic variable to have a different result
from this research. We can use different proxy for each macroeconomic variable
such as for economic growth we can use nominal gross domestic product compare
to the industrial production index to have a different finding and result. When we
use nominal gross domestic product as our proxy, we can know the current market
price of the country. Therefore, nominal gross domestic product will include all of
the changes in market prices that have occurred during the current year due
to inflation or deflation. Basically, we can do research on different proxy for each
macroeconomic variable and will get different result at the end of the research.
88

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
4. Use panel data regression

Based on this research we use series regression method, for the future research we
want to recommend to use different method such as panel data regression. Panel
data or longitudinal data typically refer to data containing time series observations
of a number of individuals. There are some advantages of panel data which is more
accurate inference of model parameters. Panel data usually contain more degrees
of freedom and less multicollinearity than cross-sectional data which may be
viewed as a panel with T = 1, or time series data which is a panel with N = 1, hence
improving the efficiency of econometric estimates. We can use this panel data
regression to have different result at the end of the research.
89

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
APPENDICES
PHILIPPINES RAW DATA:
CPI IPI BLR MS

2000M01 57.96 96.09 10.25 31,504.46
2000M02 58.11 98.21 10.16 30,761.39
2000M03 58.11 103.44 10.61 31,261.03
2000M04 58.24 86.22 10.3 31,424.19
2000M05 58.42 104.10 10.08 30,463.40
2000M06 58.65 109.26 10.55 30,535.56
2000M07 58.96 111.45 10.28 29,148.68
2000M08 59.19 115.09 10.92 28,888.63
2000M09 59.34 117.08 11.57 28,660.86
2000M10 59.73 122.37 10.66 27,537.65
2000M11 60.42 116.90 12.35 27,474.23
2000M12 61 119.14 13.1 28,523.03
2001M01 61.35 101.57 12.79 28,131.19
2001M02 61.5 103.63 11.78 29,381.86
2001M03 61.5 115.02 12.2 29,632.93
2001M04 61.5 95.03 11.56 29,236.50
2001M05 61.65 100.76 13.95 28,994.32
2001M06 62.12 109.73 11.12 28,670.33
2001M07 62.5 100.76 10.93 27,209.65
2001M08 62.58 109.55 12.89 27,794.65
2001M09 62.73 105.34 12.18 28,327.32
2001M10 62.81 106.95 14.47 28,087.91
2001M11 62.96 104.53 11.88 28,112.75
2001M12 63.12 104.17 13.02 32,959.30
2002M01 63.35 91.71 12.01 33,070.86
2002M02 63.27 94.85 9.94 33,596.60
2002M03 63.5 98.52 10.54 34,486.32
2002M04 63.58 98.16 9.56 34,719.00
2002M05 63.66 99.15 8.56 35,557.32
2002M06 63.73 103.09 8.74 34,814.93
2002M07 64.04 97.98 8.57 34,706.40
2002M08 64.27 97.45 7.95 33,991.02
2002M09 64.27 103.09 7.89 34,272.25
2002M10 64.27 104.98 8.91 34,024.84
2002M11 64.27 103.99 8.47 33,828.70
2002M12 64.42 97.81 8.46 35,120.93
90

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2003M01 64.58 94.76 8.82 34,469.18

2003M02 64.73 93.86 8.05 33,962.10
2003M03 64.81 105.33 9.42 33,868.41
2003M04 64.96 98.97 9.66 34,566.04
2003M05 65.04 102.20 10.8 32,256.77
2003M06 65.5 101.84 9.73 36,003.31
2003M07 65.5 101.93 9.83 34,129.87
2003M08 65.66 101.30 9.3 33,501.55
2003M09 65.66 99.87 9.15 33,749.43
2003M10 65.73 99.60 9.16 33,808.48
2003M11 65.81 95.29 9.43 34,312.07
2003M12 66.04 96.10 10.26 34,980.61
2004M01 66.43 93.41 9.66 35,015.25
2004M02 66.58 93.59 9.17 34,450.78
2004M03 66.81 94.85 10.04 34,601.24
2004M04 67.04 97.71 9.99 34,870.26
2004M05 67.35 99.06 10.07 35,284.60
2004M06 68.2 103.90 9.49 35,300.66
2004M07 69.12 102.47 10.66 34,914.21
2004M08 69.43 97.98 10.23 34,980.20
2004M09 69.74 106.41 10.34 34,868.24
2004M10 69.89 104.98 10.06 35,045.50
2004M11 70.72 102.74 9.9 35,070.14
2004M12 70.74 105.51 11.29 35,802.31
2005M01 71.28 94.04 10.83 38,778.79
2005M02 71.43 95.65 9.73 39,481.48
2005M03 71.58 94.04 9.68 40,180.11
2005M04 71.89 102.20 9.98 39,967.21
2005M05 72.28 102.11 10.34 40,748.06
2005M06 72.74 100.85 10.12 40,671.66
2005M07 73.28 102.74 10.18 40,098.56
2005M08 73.66 103.09 10.08 40,630.71
2005M09 73.89 101.66 10.42 40,028.64
2005M10 74.2 112.60 10.28 40,426.07
2005M11 74.66 113.65 9.73 41,863.08
2005M12 75 105.96 10.79 43,681.93
2006M01 75.51 85.16 10.25 44,173.27
2006M02 76.05 84.90 9.6 45,318.19
2006M03 76.28 90.63 9.71 45,958.02
2006M04 76.43 89.20 9.49 46,175.54
2006M05 76.59 95.92 9.69 47,381.88
91

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2006M06 77.05 94.49 10.75 47,553.28

2006M07 77.28 91.62 10.17 48,211.99
2006M08 77.51 96.82 10.39 49,432.18
2006M09 77.51 92.61 9.72 51,268.47
2006M10 77.66 93.68 9.37 52,579.76
2006M11 77.82 95.56 9.2 54,723.41
2006M12 78 96.10 8.95 57,935.75
2007M01 78.36 84.81 9.5 54,440.81
2007M02 78.28 72.61 8.24 60,180.11
2007M03 78.28 84.54 8.78 61,025.41
2007M04 78.43 86.24 8.49 63,497.29
2007M05 78.66 88.57 8.18 63,520.75
2007M06 79.05 91.72 8.25 65,830.17
2007M07 79.51 93.14 8.99 65,811.77
2007M08 79.59 93.03 9.24 62,807.11
2007M09 79.74 91.18 8.87 62,806.29
2007M10 79.9 96.07 7.81 65,798.68
2007M11 80.2 96.72 8.85 69,490.14
2007M12 80.82 104.22 9.07 79,391.51
2008M01 81.97 86.72 8.6 74,383.71
2008M02 82.28 86.51 8.23 75,351.82
2008M03 82.9 87.38 8.45 72,935.66
2008M04 84.13 92.37 7.77 72,470.33
2008M05 85.13 93.79 8.5 71,114.99
2008M06 86.52 94.44 8.52 71,008.24
2008M07 87.59 97.26 8.59 69,141.13
2008M08 88 93.03 8.96 69,910.58
2008M09 87.7 98.03 9.06 69,149.02
2008M10 87.67 99.44 9.54 67,604.23
2008M11 87.52 91.29 9.4 68,381.34
2008M12 87.13 89.44 9.34 73,599.63
2009M01 87.82 61.84 10.2 71,913.11
2009M02 88.21 65.53 8.55 71,607.62
2009M03 88.36 74.01 9.54 70,530.31
2009M04 88.82 72.60 8.58 70,428.35
2009M05 89.29 79.66 8.62 72,186.24
2009M06 89.29 80.42 8.41 73,547.35
2009M07 89.52 83.03 8.55 72,292.91
2009M08 89.52 82.49 7.02 73,460.29
2009M09 89.83 88.57 8.53 74,419.91
2009M10 90.21 93.46 8.62 78,057.25
92

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2009M11 90.6 94.55 7.93 80,317.62

2009M12 90.87 97.92 8.18 83,603.53
2010M01 91.21 84.12 8.03 80,767.80
2010M02 91.67 86.72 7.61 80,858.64
2010M03 91.83 93.03 8 82,826.53
2010M04 92.37 95.20 7.72 85,522.59
2010M05 92.29 100.42 7.79 84,064.29
2010M06 92.52 100.63 7.71 83,327.58
2010M07 92.83 100.96 7.71 82,193.28
2010M08 93.21 103.57 7.69 84,437.01
2010M09 93.21 102.37 7.53 89,139.56
2010M10 93.14 109.22 7.79 90,331.26
2010M11 93.98 110.52 7.23 92,846.81
2010M12 94.29 113.24 7.2 97,461.98
2011M01 94.83 96.29 6.97 92,022.25
2011M02 95.98 96.40 6.72 94,009.93
2011M03 96.29 102.48 6.79 96,051.68
2011M04 96.68 98.13 6.39 94,588.10
2011M05 96.83 103.13 6.5 96,315.31
2011M06 97.37 100.42 6.77 99,361.89
2011M07 97.37 105.63 7.1 96,388.89
2011M08 97.52 104.76 7.08 98,432.00
2011M09 97.6 102.70 6.78 98,388.16
2011M10 97.98 95.53 6.77 96,342.30
2011M11 98.37 103.46 5.76 100,137.85
2011M12 98.22 104.44 6.2 104,984.28
2012M01 98.6 98.68 5.9 99,778.52
2012M02 98.7 104.22 5.68 102,526.08
2012M03 98.9 114.44 6.62 101,924.12
2012M04 99.6 102.81 5.53 103,099.83
2012M05 99.5 99.66 5.95 103,103.13
2012M06 99.9 111.18 5.63 106,031.27
2012M07 100.1 109.65 5.5 104,952.01
2012M08 101 107.26 5.39 105,067.62
2012M09 101 112.81 5.55 108,830.56
2012M10 101 115.20 5.59 109,483.73
2012M11 101 115.52 5.28 115,300.80
2012M12 100.9 115.41 5.49 122,256.53
2013M01 101.3 108.57 6.21 118,165.94
2013M02 101.6 109.87 5.4 119,620.71
2013M03 101.7 113.24 5.92 122,164.63
93

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2013M04 101.7 112.05 5.85 121,812.12

2013M05 101.8 119.76 5.87 125,381.04
2013M06 102.4 121.17 5.61 128,726.71
2013M07 102.6 125.52 5.87 134,057.78
2013M08 102.8 126.06 5.76 132,402.21
2013M09 103.3 134.22 5.72 136,616.83
2013M10 103.4 139.54 5.71 139,547.06
2013M11 103.9 137.26 5.52 148,459.27
2013M12 104.7 141.71 5.71 151,766.87
2014M01 105.2 113.35 5.65 149,641.60
2014M02 105.3 116.39 5.19 149,604.50
2014M03 105.2 113.24 5.66 151,721.28
2014M04 105.5 124.11 5.44 150,769.27
2014M05 105.9 134.98 5.6 153,613.27
2014M06 106.3 136.50 5.39 156,656.42
2014M07 106.9 135.08 5.62 158,313.19
2014M08 107.1 133.24 5.6 157,451.60
2014M09 107.3 140.52 5.38 157,669.60
2014M10 107.2 151.71 5.69 155,135.06
2014M11 107 149.76 5.36 156,755.37
2014M12 106.7 148.23 5.69 165,511.62
2015M01 106.8 116.39 5.54 161,019.87
2015M02 106.9 114.00 5.09 163,598.86
2015M03 106.8 130.09 5.64 165,242.27
2015M04 107 126.39 5.47 163,760.83
2015M05 106.9 133.45 5.67 163,811.01
2015M06 106.9 134.22 5.41 165,273.22
2015M07 107.1 135.30 5.56 163,697.05
2015M08 107.1 136.17 5.56 161,593.90
2015M09 106.9 144.87 5.76 160,656.73
2015M10 107 153.99 5.85 163,094.19
2015M11 107.3 156.28 5.64 163,746.48
2015M12 107.5 155.73 5.73 170,807.14
2016M01 107.6 122.91 5.79 168,837.24
2016M02 107.4 129.54 5.37 169,377.09
2016M03 107.4 140.08 5.73 175,906.18
2016M04 107.7 139.11 5.55 178,007.95
2016M05 107.9 143.34 5.73 180,041.58
2016M06 108.3 147.26 5.59 181,054.17
2016M07 108.5 151.60 5.68 179,788.42
2016M08 108.5 154.32 5.85 180,103.15
94

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2016M09 108.7 161.06 5.53 179,755.91

2016M10 108.9 169.21 5.63 177,756.27
2016M11 109.5 179.97 5.58 177,565.80
2016M12 109.96 189.53 5.67 183,485.61
2017M01 110.3 141.28 5.64 181,061.13
2017M02 110.7 142.15 5.21 181,681.66
2017M03 110.7 157.47 5.77 182,787.88
2017M04 111.1 139.32 5.47 184,152.70
2017M05 111 146.39 5.7 186,359.28
2017M06 111 147.15 5.61 191,219.87
2017M07 111.1 143.89 5.67 189,900.29
2017M08 111.4 154.86 5.68 190,738.26
2017M09 112.1 151.93 5.61 191,586.95
2017M10 112.3 158.12 5.73 192,383.17
2017M11 112.8 161.71 5.57 194,847.20
2017M12 113.1 178.01 5.7 202,447.94
2018M01 114.1 156.82 5.73 201,269.87
2018M02 115 164.21 5.35 198,352.34
2018M03 115.5 175.29 5.84 201,291.59
2018M04 116.1 168.88 5.75 200,899.73
2018M05 116.1 165.95 6.03 202,695.00
2018M06 116.8 162.04 5.9 200,131.58
2018M07 117.4 158.67 6.2 199,261.41
2018M08 118.4 160.08 6.212 200,769.53
2018M09 119.5 154.32 6.249 198,493.32
2018M10 119.73 163.12 6.602 197,658.12
2018M11 119.6 165.30 6.64 204,097.62
2018M12 118.9 162.69 7.024 209,975.06
2019M01 119.1 150.19 7.267 207,279.08
2019M02 119.9 149.00 6.68 209,050.00
2019M03 119.3 159.86 7.424 209,432.82
2019M04 119.6 145.30 7.196 212,069.35
2019M05 119.8 153.02 7.476 212,792.56
2019M06 119.9 147.47 7.212 215,837.59
2019M07 120.2 144.97 7.382 219,562.60
2019M08 120.4 140.19 7.108 215,574.89
2019M09 120.6 144.32 6.991 218,943.94
2019M10 120.8 154.97 7.105 222,934.48
2019M11 121.1 152.36 6.767 231,253.16
2019M12 121.95 146.28 6.542 242,148.73
95

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
PHILIPPINES LOG DATA:
LNBLR LNCPI LNIPI LNMS

2000M01 2.327278 4.059753 4.565285 10.35788
2000M02 2.318458 4.062338 4.587108 10.33402
2000M03 2.361797 4.062338 4.638992 10.35013
2000M04 2.332144 4.064572 4.456902 10.35533
2000M05 2.310553 4.067658 4.645352 10.32428
2000M06 2.356126 4.071588 4.69373 10.32665
2000M07 2.3302 4.076859 4.713576 10.28016
2000M08 2.390596 4.080753 4.745714 10.2712
2000M09 2.448416 4.083284 4.762857 10.26329
2000M10 2.366498 4.089834 4.807049 10.22331
2000M11 2.513656 4.10132 4.761319 10.221
2000M12 2.572612 4.110874 4.780299 10.25847
2001M01 2.548664 4.116595 4.620748 10.24463
2001M02 2.466403 4.119037 4.640827 10.28813
2001M03 2.501436 4.119037 4.745106 10.29664
2001M04 2.447551 4.119037 4.554193 10.28317
2001M05 2.63548 4.121473 4.612741 10.27486
2001M06 2.408745 4.129068 4.698023 10.26362
2001M07 2.391511 4.135167 4.612741 10.21133
2001M08 2.556452 4.136446 4.696381 10.2326
2001M09 2.499795 4.13884 4.657193 10.25158
2001M10 2.672078 4.140114 4.672361 10.24309
2001M11 2.474856 4.1425 4.649474 10.24398
2001M12 2.566487 4.145038 4.646024 10.40303
2002M01 2.48574 4.148675 4.518631 10.40641
2002M02 2.296567 4.147411 4.552297 10.42218
2002M03 2.355178 4.15104 4.59026 10.44832
2002M04 2.257588 4.152299 4.586599 10.45504
2002M05 2.1471 4.153556 4.596634 10.4789
2002M06 2.16791 4.154655 4.635602 10.4578
2002M07 2.148268 4.159508 4.584763 10.45468
2002M08 2.073172 4.163093 4.579339 10.43385
2002M09 2.065596 4.163093 4.635602 10.44209
2002M10 2.187174 4.163093 4.65377 10.43485
2002M11 2.136531 4.163093 4.644295 10.42906
2002M12 2.135349 4.165424 4.583027 10.46655
2003M01 2.177022 4.167905 4.551347 10.44782
2003M02 2.085672 4.170225 4.541804 10.433
2003M03 2.242835 4.17146 4.657098 10.43024
96

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2003M04 2.267994 4.173772 4.594817 10.45063

2003M05 2.379546 4.175002 4.626932 10.38148
2003M06 2.275214 4.18205 4.623403 10.49137
2003M07 2.285439 4.18205 4.624286 10.43793
2003M08 2.230014 4.18449 4.618086 10.41935
2003M09 2.213754 4.18449 4.603869 10.42672
2003M10 2.214846 4.185555 4.601162 10.42847
2003M11 2.243896 4.186772 4.556925 10.44325
2003M12 2.328253 4.190261 4.565389 10.46255
2004M01 2.267994 4.196149 4.536998 10.46354
2004M02 2.215937 4.198404 4.538924 10.44729
2004M03 2.306577 4.201853 4.552297 10.45164
2004M04 2.301585 4.205289 4.582004 10.45939
2004M05 2.309561 4.209903 4.595726 10.4712
2004M06 2.250239 4.222445 4.643429 10.47166
2004M07 2.366498 4.235844 4.62957 10.46065
2004M08 2.325325 4.240319 4.584763 10.46254
2004M09 2.33602 4.244774 4.6673 10.45933
2004M10 2.308567 4.246923 4.65377 10.4644
2004M11 2.292535 4.258728 4.632202 10.46511
2004M12 2.423917 4.259011 4.658806 10.48577
2005M01 2.38232 4.266616 4.54372 10.56563
2005M02 2.275214 4.268718 4.560696 10.58359
2005M03 2.270062 4.270816 4.54372 10.60113
2005M04 2.300583 4.275137 4.626932 10.59581
2005M05 2.33602 4.280547 4.626051 10.61516
2005M06 2.314514 4.286891 4.613634 10.61329
2005M07 2.320425 4.294288 4.632202 10.5991
2005M08 2.310553 4.29946 4.635602 10.61228
2005M09 2.343727 4.302578 4.621634 10.59735
2005M10 2.3302 4.306764 4.723842 10.60723
2005M11 2.275214 4.312944 4.733124 10.64216
2005M12 2.37862 4.317488 4.663062 10.68469
2006M01 2.327278 4.324265 4.444532 10.69588
2006M02 2.261763 4.331391 4.441474 10.72146
2006M03 2.273156 4.334411 4.506785 10.73548
2006M04 2.250239 4.336375 4.490881 10.74021
2006M05 2.271094 4.338467 4.563515 10.766
2006M06 2.374906 4.344455 4.548494 10.76961
2006M07 2.319442 4.347435 4.51765 10.78336
2006M08 2.340844 4.350407 4.572854 10.80836
97

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2006M09 2.274186 4.350407 4.528397 10.84483

2006M10 2.237513 4.35234 4.539885 10.87009
2006M11 2.219203 4.354398 4.559754 10.91005
2006M12 2.191654 4.356709 4.565389 10.96709
2007M01 2.251292 4.361314 4.440413 10.90487
2007M02 2.109 4.360292 4.285103 11.0051
2007M03 2.172476 4.360292 4.437225 11.01905
2007M04 2.138889 4.362207 4.457134 11.05875
2007M05 2.101692 4.365135 4.483793 11.05912
2007M06 2.110213 4.370081 4.51874 11.09483
2007M07 2.196113 4.375883 4.534104 11.09455
2007M08 2.223542 4.376888 4.532922 11.04782
2007M09 2.182675 4.378771 4.512836 11.04781
2007M10 2.055405 4.380776 4.565077 11.09436
2007M11 2.180417 4.384524 4.57182 11.14894
2007M12 2.204972 4.392224 4.646504 11.28215
2008M01 2.151762 4.406353 4.462685 11.21699
2008M02 2.107786 4.410128 4.46026 11.22992
2008M03 2.134166 4.417635 4.470266 11.19733
2008M04 2.05027 4.432363 4.525802 11.19093
2008M05 2.140066 4.444179 4.541058 11.17205
2008M06 2.142416 4.460376 4.547965 11.17055
2008M07 2.150599 4.472667 4.577388 11.14391
2008M08 2.19277 4.477337 4.532922 11.15497
2008M09 2.203869 4.473922 4.585274 11.14402
2008M10 2.255493 4.47358 4.599554 11.12143
2008M11 2.24071 4.471867 4.514041 11.13286
2008M12 2.234306 4.467401 4.493568 11.2064
2009M01 2.322388 4.475289 4.12455 11.18321
2009M02 2.145931 4.47972 4.182508 11.17896
2009M03 2.255493 4.481419 4.3042 11.1638
2009M04 2.149434 4.486612 4.284965 11.16235
2009M05 2.154085 4.491889 4.377768 11.187
2009M06 2.129421 4.491889 4.387263 11.20568
2009M07 2.145931 4.494462 4.419202 11.18848
2009M08 1.948763 4.494462 4.412677 11.2045
2009M09 2.143589 4.497919 4.483793 11.21748
2009M10 2.154085 4.50214 4.537534 11.2652
2009M11 2.070653 4.506454 4.549129 11.29374
2009M12 2.101692 4.50943 4.584151 11.33384
2010M01 2.083185 4.513165 4.432244 11.29933
98

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2010M02 2.029463 4.518195 4.462685 11.30046

2010M03 2.079442 4.519939 4.532922 11.3245
2010M04 2.043814 4.525802 4.55598 11.35654
2010M05 2.052841 4.524936 4.609361 11.33934
2010M06 2.042518 4.527425 4.61145 11.33053
2010M07 2.042518 4.53077 4.614724 11.31683
2010M08 2.039921 4.534855 4.640248 11.34376
2010M09 2.018895 4.534855 4.628594 11.39796
2010M10 2.052841 4.534104 4.693364 11.41124
2010M11 1.978239 4.543082 4.705197 11.43871
2010M12 1.974081 4.546375 4.729509 11.48722
2011M01 1.941615 4.552086 4.567364 11.42979
2011M02 1.905088 4.56414 4.568506 11.45116
2011M03 1.915451 4.567364 4.629668 11.47264
2011M04 1.854734 4.571407 4.586293 11.45729
2011M05 1.871802 4.572957 4.63599 11.47538
2011M06 1.912501 4.578518 4.609361 11.50652
2011M07 1.960095 4.578518 4.659942 11.47615
2011M08 1.957274 4.580057 4.651672 11.49712
2011M09 1.913977 4.580877 4.631812 11.49668
2011M10 1.912501 4.584763 4.55944 11.47566
2011M11 1.750937 4.588736 4.639185 11.5143
2011M12 1.824549 4.58721 4.648613 11.56157
2012M01 1.774952 4.591071 4.591882 11.51071
2012M02 1.736951 4.592085 4.646504 11.53787
2012M03 1.890095 4.594109 4.740051 11.53198
2012M04 1.710188 4.601162 4.632883 11.54345
2012M05 1.783391 4.600158 4.601764 11.54349
2012M06 1.728109 4.60417 4.711151 11.57149
2012M07 1.704748 4.60617 4.697293 11.56126
2012M08 1.684545 4.615121 4.675256 11.56236
2012M09 1.713798 4.615121 4.725705 11.59755
2012M10 1.720979 4.615121 4.74667 11.60353
2012M11 1.663926 4.615121 4.749444 11.6553
2012M12 1.702928 4.61413 4.748491 11.71388
2013M01 1.826161 4.618086 4.687395 11.67985
2013M02 1.686399 4.621044 4.699298 11.69208
2013M03 1.778336 4.622027 4.729509 11.71312
2013M04 1.766442 4.622027 4.718945 11.71024
2013M05 1.769855 4.62301 4.78549 11.73911
2013M06 1.724551 4.628887 4.797195 11.76545
99

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2013M07 1.769855 4.630838 4.832465 11.80603

2013M08 1.750937 4.632785 4.836758 11.7936
2013M09 1.743969 4.637637 4.89948 11.82494
2013M10 1.742219 4.638605 4.938351 11.84616
2013M11 1.708378 4.643429 4.921877 11.90807
2013M12 1.742219 4.651099 4.953783 11.9301
2014M01 1.731656 4.655863 4.73048 11.916
2014M02 1.646734 4.656813 4.756947 11.91575
2014M03 1.733424 4.655863 4.729509 11.9298
2014M04 1.693779 4.658711 4.821168 11.92351
2014M05 1.722767 4.662495 4.905127 11.94219
2014M06 1.684545 4.666265 4.916325 11.96181
2014M07 1.726332 4.671894 4.905867 11.97233
2014M08 1.722767 4.673763 4.892152 11.96687
2014M09 1.682688 4.675629 4.94535 11.96826
2014M10 1.73871 4.674696 5.021971 11.95205
2014M11 1.678964 4.672829 5.009034 11.96244
2014M12 1.73871 4.670021 4.998765 12.0168
2015M01 1.711995 4.670958 4.756947 11.98928
2015M02 1.627278 4.671894 4.736198 12.00517
2015M03 1.729884 4.670958 4.868227 12.01517
2015M04 1.699279 4.672829 4.839372 12.00616
2015M05 1.735189 4.671894 4.893727 12.00647
2015M06 1.688249 4.671894 4.89948 12.01536
2015M07 1.715598 4.673763 4.907495 12.00577
2015M08 1.715598 4.673763 4.913904 11.99284
2015M09 1.750937 4.671894 4.975837 11.98703
2015M10 1.766442 4.672829 5.036888 12.00208
2015M11 1.729884 4.675629 5.051649 12.00607
2015M12 1.745716 4.677491 5.048124 12.04829
2016M01 1.756132 4.678421 4.811452 12.03669
2016M02 1.680828 4.67656 4.86399 12.03988
2016M03 1.745716 4.67656 4.942214 12.07771
2016M04 1.713798 4.67935 4.935265 12.08958
2016M05 1.745716 4.681205 4.965219 12.10094
2016M06 1.720979 4.684905 4.9922 12.10655
2016M07 1.736951 4.68675 5.021245 12.09954
2016M08 1.766442 4.68675 5.039028 12.10129
2016M09 1.710188 4.688592 5.081777 12.09936
2016M10 1.728109 4.69043 5.131141 12.08817
2016M11 1.719189 4.695925 5.19279 12.0871
100

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2016M12 1.735189 4.700117 5.244547 12.11989

2017M01 1.729884 4.703204 4.950744 12.10659
2017M02 1.65058 4.706824 4.956883 12.11001
2017M03 1.752672 4.706824 5.059235 12.11608
2017M04 1.699279 4.710431 4.936773 12.12352
2017M05 1.740466 4.70953 4.986274 12.13543
2017M06 1.724551 4.70953 4.991452 12.16118
2017M07 1.735189 4.710431 4.969049 12.15425
2017M08 1.736951 4.713127 5.042521 12.15866
2017M09 1.724551 4.719391 5.02342 12.1631
2017M10 1.745716 4.721174 5.063354 12.16724
2017M11 1.717395 4.725616 5.085805 12.17997
2017M12 1.740466 4.728272 5.18184 12.21824
2018M01 1.745716 4.737075 5.055099 12.2124
2018M02 1.677097 4.744932 5.101146 12.1978
2018M03 1.764731 4.749271 5.166442 12.21251
2018M04 1.7492 4.754452 5.129188 12.21056
2018M05 1.796747 4.754452 5.111687 12.21946
2018M06 1.774952 4.760463 5.087843 12.20673
2018M07 1.824549 4.765587 5.066827 12.20237
2018M08 1.826483 4.774069 5.075674 12.20991
2018M09 1.832421 4.783316 5.039028 12.19851
2018M10 1.887373 4.785239 5.094486 12.19429
2018M11 1.893112 4.784153 5.107762 12.22635
2018M12 1.949333 4.778283 5.091847 12.25474
2019M01 1.983344 4.779963 5.011901 12.24182
2019M02 1.899118 4.786658 5.003946 12.25033
2019M03 2.004718 4.781641 5.074298 12.25216
2019M04 1.973525 4.784153 4.978801 12.26467
2019M05 2.011698 4.785824 5.030569 12.26807
2019M06 1.975746 4.786658 4.993625 12.28228
2019M07 1.999045 4.789157 4.976527 12.29939
2019M08 1.961221 4.79082 4.942999 12.28106
2019M09 1.944624 4.792479 4.972033 12.29657
2019M10 1.960799 4.794136 5.043232 12.31463
2019M11 1.912058 4.796617 5.026246 12.35127
2019M12 1.878243 4.803611 4.985523 12.39731
101

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
BANGLADESH RAW DATA:

MS IPI CPI BLR
(2005=100) (2010=100)
2000M01 690,991 47.95 53.554 12.82
2000M02 675,250 47.92 53.238 12.83
2000M03 714,776 43.75 53.305 12.68
2000M04 714,707 46.68 53.373 13.2
2000M05 719,767 49.56 53.351 12.65
2000M06 747,624 54.68 53.464 13.71
2000M07 760,414 53.68 53.599 12.45
2000M08 758,763 50.74 53.69 12.33
2000M09 774,986 51.28 53.825 12.49
2000M10 781,391 49.78 53.984 12.48
2000M11 782,692 51.51 54.617 12.65
2000M12 822,833 55.25 54.617 12.77
2001M01 811,009 47.97 54.707 12.4
2001M02 819,284 48.6 54.051 13.09
2001M03 824,716 44.14 54.097 12.92
2001M04 826,826 48.15 54.232 12.9
2001M05 831,715 51.57 54.436 11.2
2001M06 871,741 55.18 54.617 13.29
2001M07 875,320 55.97 54.775 13.28
2001M08 874,759 55.84 54.888 13
2001M09 884,145 50.8 55.024 13.98
2001M10 891,724 49.12 55.159 13.08
2001M11 903,823 52.25 55.295 12.35
2001M12 943,640 57.68 55.815 12.51
2002M01 924,532 56.45 55.996 13.78
2002M02 934,054 53.32 55.634 12.55
2002M03 933,987 50.67 55.702 12.38
2002M04 939,742 51.17 55.873 12.3
2002M05 949,050 54.5 56.041 12.23
2002M06 986,160 56.97 55.95 12.43
2002M07 993,890 57.74 56.696 12.23
2002M08 1,004,766 58.56 57.239 12.62
2002M09 1,015,869 55 57.307 12.27
2002M10 1,021,548 53.41 57.397 13.22
2002M11 1,032,287 53.25 57.533 12.75
2002M12 1,068,975 59.33 57.94 12.5
2003M01 1,061,995 59.1 57.612 12.55
2003M02 1,076,352 57.36 57.79 12.04
102

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2003M03 1,066,383 56.02 57.872 12.24

2003M04 1,082,448 53.92 57.966 11.78
2003M05 1,094,504 58.65 58.213 11.46
2003M06 1,139,943 59.56 58.405 12.04
2003M07 1,139,484 63.85 60.483 12.02
2003M08 1,149,989 62.9 60.972 12.04
2003M09 1,175,756 59.13 61.406 11.94
2003M10 1,173,012 56.12 61.834 11.96
2003M11 1,184,370 56.16 62.272 11.94
2003M12 1,209,149 62.9 62.593 11.94
2004M01 1,210,249 64.47 63.788 10.74
2004M02 1,214,638 54.57 62.862 10.76
2004M03 1,223,573 59.02 63.017 10.2
2004M04 1,223,485 57.41 63.13 10.12
2004M05 1,239,984 62.99 63.351 10.12
2004M06 1,297,217 68.39 63.555 9.91
2004M07 1,304,873 79.97 63.897 9.92
2004M08 1,321,250 68.04 64.335 10.52
2004M09 1,334,702 62.04 65.916 10.63
2004M10 1,348,112 59.58 66.744 10.62
2004M11 1,369,065 58.87 66.233 10.61
2004M12 1,406,427 66.32 66.038 10.64
2005M01 1,417,212 67 66.254 10.54
2005M02 1,410,860 64.63 66.87 10.52
2005M03 1,411,889 65.2 67.251 10.4
2005M04 1,418,501 66.15 67.307 10.7
2005M05 1,442,543 71.24 67.723 10.42
2005M06 1,514,464 75.45 68.226 10.48
2005M07 1,513,898 75.1 68.807 10.57
2005M08 1,536,583 74.17 69.439 10.69
2005M09 1,558,774 70.29 70.54 10.72
2005M10 1,596,528 73.02 71,602 10.8
2005M11 1,602,730 66.76 71.498 10.7
2005M12 1,647,810 76.27 70.705 10.75
2006M01 1,654,252 72.5 70.618 10.93
2006M02 1,666,394 72.06 70.692 11.75
2006M03 1,682,383 74.96 71.402 11.9
2006M04 1,702,179 70.49 72.325 11.68
2006M05 1,737,941 79.31 72.88 10.85
2006M06 1,806,742 83.32 73.369 11.34
2006M07 1,823,350 84.75 73.465 11.6
103

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2006M08 1,845,797 86.08 74.071 11.9

2006M09 1,919,262 78.08 75.397 12
2006M10 1,929,352 73.72 76.836 12.07
2006M11 1,930,354 77.11 76.052 12.1
2006M12 2,015,785 84.94 75.042 12.11
2007M01 1,995,126 76.64 74.812 12.33
2007M02 1,999,611 79.89 75.839 12.6
2007M03 2,015,782 80.79 76.706 12.68
2007M04 2,027,944 76.22 78.314 12.61
2007M05 2,056,532 81.82 78.747 12.66
2007M06 2,115,042 89.79 80.116 12.7
2007M07 2,112,872 82.5 80.883 12.92
2007M08 2,131,174 86.56 81.568 12.75
2007M09 2,161,171 82.64 82.634 12.57
2007M10 2,187,504 78.73 84.562 12.57
2007M11 2,215,667 84.25 84.579 12.52
2007M12 2,307,212 89.01 83.739 12.71
2008M01 2,272,320 89.04 83.366 12.73
2008M02 2,299,331 87.06 83.548 12.71
2008M03 2,322,849 89.57 84.423 12.71
2008M04 2,353,118 84.98 84.311 12.87
2008M05 2,411,336 87.6 84.605 12.71
2008M06 1,487,949 95.48 88.159 11.82
2008M07 2,512,506 96.74 89.636 13.01
2008M08 2,548,585 92.82 89.814 13.31
2008M09 2,669,048 93.35 91.058 12.62
2008M10 2,638,822 80.14 90.698 13.42
2008M11 2,681,471 91.94 89.758 13.24
2008M12 2,719,789 91.9 88.787 13.51
2009M01 2,722,887 96.52 88.414 13.33
2009M02 2,743,103 91.68 88.406 13.47
2009M03 2,783,133 94.68 88.679 13.62
2009M04 2,819,020 88.51 88.826 13.53
2009M05 2,865,159 94.15 89.168 13.77
2009M06 2,964,999 99.92 90.139 13.46
2009M07 2,980,954 96.1 92.734 13.61
2009M08 3,036,065 93.6 94.734 13.26
2009M09 3,120,569 88.68 94.026 13.13
2009M10 3,125,794 89.1 95.243 13.07
2009M11 322,994 89.83 96.786 12.87
2009M12 3,281,923 89.24 96.257 12.8
104

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2010M01 3,279,907 94.07 96.34 12.43

2010M02 3,343,711 90.78 96.413 12.33
2010M03 3,375,792 96.52 96.461 12.41
2010M04 3,430,408 93.65 96.409 12.37
2010M05 3,522,258 99.09 96.886 12.3
2010M06 3,630,311 109.44 97.978 12.37
2010M07 3,643,831 104.58 99.471 12.58
2010M08 3,730,999 106.32 101.365 12.29
2010M09 3,790,960 94.47 102.551 11.76
2010M10 3,852,313 101.46 104.255 11.81
2010M11 3,946,520 104.39 104.927 11.78
2010M12 3,992,790 105.24 106.924 12.2
2011M01 4,018,405 107.27 107.606 12.64
2011M02 4,067,849 106.13 108.281 12.51
2011M03 4,169,311 114.53 108.721 12.82
2011M04 4,214,615 114.39 108.668 12.83
2011M05 4,292,758 121.22 107.988 12.85
2011M06 4,405,200 125.15 109.055 13.39
2011M07 4,425,400 124.33 111.253 13.73
2011M08 4,538,454 126.33 113.571 13.61
2011M09 4,533,976 97.8 115.533 13.71
2011M10 4,613,042 114.5 115.712 13.94
2011M11 4,645,219 105.95 115.288 14
2011M12 4,754,969 122.9 115.066 12.82
2012M01 4,737,037 124.597 116.836 14.56
2012M02 4,807,993 124.955 115.795 14.62
2012M03 4,903,278 124.168 116.072 13.69
2012M04 4,938,070 116.619 115.443 13.72
2012M05 5,010,886 125.723 114.477 13.7
2012M06 5,171,095 136.016 115.106 13.75
2012M07 5,226,324 139.731 117.045 13.77
2012M08 5,331,735 125.702 119.214 13.9
2012M09 5,361,032 124.464 121.262 13.93
2012M10 5,511,558 130.423 122.492 13.95
2012M11 507,514 119.313 122.836 13.94
2012M12 5,659,060 138.514 123.276 12.8
2013M01 5,624,768 141.842 124.566 13.73
2013M02 5,716,822 129.522 124.877 13.73
2013M03 5,791,085 136.059 125.026 13.73
2013M04 5,851,168 130.148 125107 13.64
2013M05 5,918,820 141.539 123.607 13.63
105

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2013M06 6,035,054 151.383 124.371 13.67

2013M07 6,135,001 159.382 126.229 13.63
2013M08 6,199,891 129.445 128.02 13.56
2013M09 6,267,239 143.875 129.912 13.51
2013M10 6,403,173 132.323 131.108 13.42
2013M11 6,425,759 133.23 131.615 13.42
2013M12 6,539,666 148.16 132.331 13.45
2014M01 6,537,655 149.3 133.906 13.39
2014M02 6,623,115 139.738 134.169 13.4
2014M03 6,677,096 142.897 134.372 13.36
2014M04 6,735,724 143.742 134.433 13.25
2014M05 6,821,608 154.089 132.858 13.25
2014M06 7,006,235 164.33 133.034 13.1
2014M07 7,147,847 169.574 135.115 12.84
2014M08 7,130,857 147.359 136.866 12.75
2014M09 7,250,034 158.057 138.798 12.58
2014M10 7,209,649 137.684 139.758 12.49
2014M11 7,250,652 151.547 139.792 12.49
2014M12 7,412,483 163.973 140.414 12.46
2015M01 7,385,265 165.012 141.995 12.22
2015M02 7,470,865 152.184 142.414 12.23
2015M03 7,513,865 157.547 142.799 12.23
2015M04 7,551,924 163.335 142.934 11.88
2015M05 7,683,498 181.727 141.083 11.82
2015M06 7,876,141 194.045 141.353 11.67
2015M07 8,046,816 173.386 143.705 11.57
2015M08 8,053,780 183.107 145.313 11.51
2015M09 8,214,731 165.361 147.462 11.48
2015M10 8,202,571 163.692 148.415 11.35
2015M11 8,251,820 172.086 148.253 11.27
2015M12 8,381,142 191.921 148.976 11.18
2016M01 8,345,011 187.165 150.611 11.05
2016M02 8,450,359 184.067 150.415 10.91
2016M03 8,531,848 187.155 150.868 10.78
2016M04 8,614,147 184.974 150.949 10.64
2016M05 8,760,936 192.5 148.773 10.57
2016M06 9,163,779 218.635 149.172 10.39
2016M07 9,133,048 176.475 151.463 10.32
2016M08 9,228,831 210.237 153.111 10.24
2016M09 9,315,231 170.652 155.612 10.11
2016M10 9,332,266 185.878 156.68 10.03
106

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2016M11 9,387,214 188.336 156.227 9.94

2016M12 9,540,538 206.488 156.463 9.93
2017M01 9,515,829 210.4 158.362 9.85
2017M02 9,578,865 193.55 158.403 9.77
2017M03 9,648,231 208.13 159.004 9.7
2017M04 9,712,637 209.46 159.2 9.62
2017M05 9,712,637 223.25 157.342 9.66
2017M06 10,160,761 223.12 158.038 9.56
2017M07 10,095,917 227.5 158.896 9.51
2017M08 10,311,517 253.41 162.133 9.46
2017M09 10,287,008 188.11 165.134 9.34
2017M10 10,332,218 224.16 164.147 9.39
2017M11 10,403,652 232.89 165.465 9.3
2017M12 10,559,989 240.66 165.586 9.32
2018M01 10,480,622 244.516 167.681 9.42
2018M02 10,515,466 230.042 167.465 9.55
2018M03 10,541,132 238.237 168.033 9.7
2018M04 10,594,682 232.457 168.168 9.89
2018M05 10,782,981 252.351 166.107 9.96
2018M06 11,099,810 232.76 166.796 9.95
2018M07 11,061,607 240.78 168.708 9.71
2018M08 11,239,534 240.51 171.02 9.63
2018M09 11,188,946 241.36 174.094 9.54
2018M10 11,258,250 243.86 175.115 9.47
2018M11 11,315,032 242.85 174.351 9.5
2018M12 11,536,070 244.03 174.439 9.49
2019M01 11,545,578 245.13 176.77 9.49
2019M02 11,605,728 244.81 176.622 9.49
2019M03 11,685,794 245.85 177.358 9.5
2019M04 11,709,436 245.8 177.548 9.46
2019M05 12,051,576 242.82 175.453 9.51
2019M06 12,196,115 243.65 176 9.58
2019M07 12,295,723 248.36 178.196 9.59
2019M08 12,463,053 251.45 180.406 9.6
2019M09 12,518,809 252.73 183.745 9.56
2019M10 12,618,112 251.44 184.691 9.58
2019M11 12,754,770 256.69 184.893 9.63
2019M12 12,994,351 255.97 184.468 9.68
107

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
BANGLADESH LOG DATA:

LNMS LNIPI LNCPI LNBLR
2000M01 13.44588 3.870159 3.98069 2.551006
2000M02 13.42284 3.869533 3.974772 2.551786
2000M03 13.47972 3.778492 3.97603 2.540026
2000M04 13.47963 3.843316 3.977305 2.580217
2000M05 13.48668 3.903184 3.976893 2.537657
2000M06 13.52466 4.001498 3.979009 2.618125
2000M07 13.54162 3.98304 3.98153 2.521721
2000M08 13.53944 3.926715 3.983227 2.512035
2000M09 13.5606 3.937301 3.985738 2.524928
2000M10 13.56883 3.907613 3.988688 2.524127
2000M11 13.57049 3.941776 4.000345 2.537657
2000M12 13.62051 4.011868 4.000345 2.547099
2001M01 13.60603 3.870576 4.001992 2.517696
2001M02 13.61619 3.883624 3.989928 2.571849
2001M03 13.62279 3.787366 3.990779 2.558776
2001M04 13.62535 3.874321 3.993271 2.557227
2001M05 13.63125 3.94294 3.997026 2.415914
2001M06 13.67825 4.010601 4.000345 2.587012
2001M07 13.68234 4.024816 4.003234 2.586259
2001M08 13.6817 4.02249 4.005295 2.564949
2001M09 13.69238 3.927896 4.007769 2.637628
2001M10 13.70091 3.894266 4.01022 2.571084
2001M11 13.71439 3.95604 4.012682 2.513656
2001M12 13.7575 4.05491 4.022043 2.526528
2002M01 13.73704 4.033355 4.02528 2.623218
2002M02 13.74729 3.976311 4.018795 2.529721
2002M03 13.74722 3.925334 4.020016 2.516082
2002M04 13.75336 3.935153 4.023081 2.509599
2002M05 13.76322 3.998201 4.026084 2.503892
2002M06 13.80157 4.042525 4.024458 2.520113
2002M07 13.80938 4.05595 4.037704 2.503892
2002M08 13.82027 4.070052 4.047235 2.535283
2002M09 13.83125 4.007333 4.048423 2.507157
2002M10 13.83683 3.977998 4.049992 2.581731
2002M11 13.84729 3.974998 4.052359 2.545531
2002M12 13.88221 4.083115 4.059408 2.525729
2003M01 13.87566 4.079231 4.053731 2.529721
108

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2003M02 13.88909 4.049347 4.056816 2.488234

2003M03 13.87978 4.025709 4.058234 2.504709
2003M04 13.89474 3.987501 4.059857 2.466403
2003M05 13.90581 4.071588 4.064109 2.438863
2003M06 13.94649 4.086984 4.067402 2.488234
2003M07 13.94609 4.156537 4.102362 2.486572
2003M08 13.95526 4.141546 4.110415 2.488234
2003M09 13.97742 4.079738 4.117508 2.479894
2003M10 13.97509 4.027492 4.124453 2.481568
2003M11 13.98472 4.028205 4.131512 2.479894
2003M12 14.00543 4.141546 4.136653 2.479894
2004M01 14.00634 4.1662 4.155565 2.373975
2004M02 14.00996 3.999484 4.140942 2.375836
2004M03 14.01729 4.077876 4.143405 2.322388
2004M04 14.01721 4.050219 4.145196 2.314514
2004M05 14.03061 4.142976 4.148691 2.314514
2004M06 14.07573 4.225227 4.151906 2.293544
2004M07 14.08162 4.381652 4.157272 2.294553
2004M08 14.09409 4.220096 4.164104 2.353278
2004M09 14.10422 4.127779 4.188381 2.36368
2004M10 14.11422 4.08732 4.200864 2.362739
2004M11 14.12964 4.075332 4.193179 2.361797
2004M12 14.15656 4.194492 4.19023 2.36462
2005M01 14.1642 4.204693 4.193496 2.355178
2005M02 14.15971 4.168679 4.20275 2.353278
2005M03 14.16044 4.177459 4.208432 2.341806
2005M04 14.16511 4.191925 4.209264 2.370244
2005M05 14.18192 4.266054 4.215426 2.343727
2005M06 14.23057 4.32347 4.222826 2.349469
2005M07 14.2302 4.318821 4.231305 2.35802
2005M08 14.24507 4.30636 4.240449 2.369309
2005M09 14.25941 4.25263 4.25618 2.372111
2005M10 14.28334 4.290733 11.17888 2.379546
2005M11 14.28722 4.201104 4.269669 2.370244
2005M12 14.31496 4.33428 4.258516 2.374906
2006M01 14.31886 4.283587 4.257285 2.391511
2006M02 14.32617 4.277499 4.258332 2.463853
2006M03 14.33572 4.316955 4.268326 2.476538
2006M04 14.34742 4.255471 4.28117 2.457878
2006M05 14.36821 4.373364 4.288814 2.384165
2006M06 14.40704 4.422689 4.295502 2.428336
109

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2006M07 14.41619 4.439706 4.296809 2.451005

2006M08 14.42842 4.455277 4.305024 2.476538
2006M09 14.46745 4.357734 4.322767 2.484907
2006M10 14.47269 4.300274 4.341673 2.490723
2006M11 14.47321 4.345233 4.331417 2.493205
2006M12 14.51652 4.441945 4.318048 2.494032
2007M01 14.50622 4.339119 4.314978 2.512035
2007M02 14.50846 4.380651 4.328613 2.533697
2007M03 14.51652 4.391853 4.33998 2.540026
2007M04 14.52253 4.333624 4.360726 2.53449
2007M05 14.53653 4.404522 4.36624 2.538447
2007M06 14.56459 4.497474 4.383476 2.541602
2007M07 14.56356 4.412798 4.393004 2.558776
2007M08 14.57218 4.460838 4.401437 2.545531
2007M09 14.58616 4.414494 4.414421 2.531313
2007M10 14.59827 4.366024 4.437485 2.531313
2007M11 14.61106 4.433789 4.437686 2.527327
2007M12 14.65155 4.488749 4.427705 2.542389
2008M01 14.63631 4.489086 4.423241 2.543961
2008M02 14.64813 4.466598 4.425421 2.542389
2008M03 14.65831 4.49502 4.43584 2.542389
2008M04 14.67125 4.442416 4.434512 2.554899
2008M05 14.69569 4.472781 4.437993 2.542389
2008M06 14.21291 4.558917 4.479142 2.469793
2008M07 14.73679 4.572027 4.495757 2.565718
2008M08 14.75105 4.530662 4.497741 2.588516
2008M09 14.79723 4.536356 4.511497 2.535283
2008M10 14.78584 4.383775 4.507535 2.596746
2008M11 14.80188 4.521136 4.497117 2.583243
2008M12 14.81606 4.520701 4.48624 2.60343
2009M01 14.8172 4.56975 4.48203 2.590017
2009M02 14.8246 4.518304 4.48194 2.600465
2009M03 14.83909 4.550503 4.485023 2.611539
2009M04 14.8519 4.483116 4.486679 2.604909
2009M05 14.86813 4.544889 4.490522 2.622492
2009M06 14.90239 4.60437 4.501353 2.599722
2009M07 14.90775 4.565389 4.529735 2.610805
2009M08 14.92607 4.53903 4.551073 2.584752
2009M09 14.95353 4.485034 4.543571 2.5749
2009M10 14.9552 4.489759 4.556432 2.57032
2009M11 12.68539 4.497919 4.572502 2.554899
110

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2009M12 15.00394 4.491329 4.567022 2.549445

2010M01 15.00333 4.544039 4.567884 2.520113
2010M02 15.02259 4.508439 4.568641 2.512035
2010M03 15.03214 4.56975 4.569139 2.518503
2010M04 15.04819 4.539564 4.5686 2.515274
2010M05 15.07461 4.596029 4.573535 2.509599
2010M06 15.10483 4.695376 4.584743 2.515274
2010M07 15.10855 4.649952 4.599866 2.532108
2010M08 15.13219 4.666453 4.618728 2.508786
2010M09 15.14813 4.548282 4.63036 2.464704
2010M10 15.16418 4.619665 4.64684 2.468947
2010M11 15.18834 4.648134 4.653265 2.466403
2010M12 15.2 4.656243 4.672118 2.501436
2011M01 15.2064 4.675349 4.678476 2.536866
2011M02 15.21862 4.664665 4.68473 2.526528
2011M03 15.24326 4.740837 4.688785 2.551006
2011M04 15.25407 4.739614 4.688297 2.551786
2011M05 15.27244 4.797607 4.68202 2.553344
2011M06 15.2983 4.829513 4.691852 2.594508
2011M07 15.30287 4.822939 4.711807 2.619583
2011M08 15.3281 4.838898 4.732428 2.610805
2011M09 15.32711 4.582925 4.749556 2.618125
2011M10 15.3444 4.740575 4.751104 2.634762
2011M11 15.35135 4.662967 4.747433 2.639057
2011M12 15.3747 4.811371 4.745506 2.551006
2012M01 15.37092 4.825085 4.760771 2.678278
2012M02 15.38579 4.827954 4.751821 2.68239
2012M03 15.40541 4.821635 4.754211 2.616666
2012M04 15.41249 4.758912 4.748777 2.618855
2012M05 15.42712 4.834081 4.740374 2.617396
2012M06 15.4586 4.912773 4.745853 2.621039
2012M07 15.46922 4.939719 4.762558 2.622492
2012M08 15.48919 4.833914 4.78092 2.631889
2012M09 15.49467 4.824017 4.797953 2.634045
2012M10 15.52236 4.870783 4.808046 2.63548
2012M11 13.13728 4.78175 4.81085 2.634762
2012M12 15.54877 4.930971 4.814426 2.549445
2013M01 15.54269 4.954714 4.824836 2.619583
2013M02 15.55892 4.863851 4.827329 2.619583
2013M03 15.57183 4.913089 4.828522 2.619583
2013M04 15.58215 4.868672 11.73692 2.613007
111

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2013M05 15.59365 4.952575 4.817107 2.612273

2013M06 15.6131 5.019813 4.823269 2.615204
2013M07 15.62952 5.071304 4.838098 2.612273
2013M08 15.64004 4.863256 4.852187 2.607124
2013M09 15.65085 4.968945 4.866857 2.60343
2013M10 15.6723 4.885246 4.876021 2.596746
2013M11 15.67583 4.892077 4.879881 2.596746
2013M12 15.6934 4.998293 4.885306 2.598979
2014M01 15.69309 5.005958 4.897138 2.594508
2014M02 15.70608 4.939769 4.8991 2.595255
2014M03 15.71419 4.962124 4.900612 2.592265
2014M04 15.72294 4.96802 4.901066 2.583998
2014M05 15.73561 5.03753 4.889281 2.583998
2014M06 15.76231 5.101877 4.890605 2.572612
2014M07 15.78232 5.133289 4.906126 2.552565
2014M08 15.77994 4.992872 4.919002 2.545531
2014M09 15.79652 5.062956 4.93302 2.532108
2014M10 15.79093 4.924961 4.939912 2.524928
2014M11 15.7966 5.020896 4.940156 2.524928
2014M12 15.81868 5.099702 4.944595 2.522524
2015M01 15.815 5.106018 4.955792 2.503074
2015M02 15.82652 5.02509 4.958738 2.503892
2015M03 15.83226 5.059724 4.961438 2.503892
2015M04 15.83731 5.095803 4.962383 2.474856
2015M05 15.85459 5.202506 4.949348 2.469793
2015M06 15.87935 5.26809 4.95126 2.457021
2015M07 15.90079 5.15552 4.967763 2.448416
2015M08 15.90165 5.210071 4.97889 2.443216
2015M09 15.92144 5.108131 4.993571 2.440606
2015M10 15.91996 5.097987 5.000012 2.429218
2015M11 15.92594 5.147994 4.99892 2.422144
2015M12 15.94149 5.257084 5.003785 2.414126
2016M01 15.93717 5.231991 5.0147 2.40243
2016M02 15.94972 5.2153 5.013398 2.38968
2016M03 15.95932 5.231937 5.016405 2.377693
2016M04 15.96892 5.220215 5.016942 2.36462
2016M05 15.98581 5.260096 5.002422 2.35802
2016M06 16.03077 5.387404 5.0051 2.340844
2016M07 16.02741 5.173179 5.020341 2.334084
2016M08 16.03784 5.348235 5.031163 2.326302
2016M09 16.04716 5.139626 5.047366 2.313525
112

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2016M10 16.04899 5.225091 5.054206 2.305581

2016M11 16.05486 5.238228 5.05131 2.296567
2016M12 16.07106 5.330242 5.05282 2.29556
2017M01 16.06847 5.34901 5.064884 2.287471
2017M02 16.07507 5.265536 5.065142 2.279316
2017M03 16.08229 5.338163 5.068929 2.272126
2017M04 16.08894 5.344533 5.070161 2.263844
2017M05 16.08894 5.408292 5.058422 2.267994
2017M06 16.13404 5.40771 5.062836 2.257588
2017M07 16.12764 5.42715 5.06825 2.252344
2017M08 16.14877 5.535009 5.088417 2.247072
2017M09 16.14639 5.237027 5.106757 2.234306
2017M10 16.15078 5.41236 5.100762 2.239645
2017M11 16.15767 5.450566 5.10876 2.230014
2017M12 16.17258 5.483385 5.109491 2.232163
2018M01 16.16504 5.499281 5.122063 2.242835
2018M02 16.16836 5.438262 5.120774 2.256541
2018M03 16.1708 5.473266 5.12416 2.272126
2018M04 16.17586 5.448705 5.124963 2.291524
2018M05 16.19348 5.530821 5.112632 2.298577
2018M06 16.22244 5.450008 5.116772 2.297573
2018M07 16.21899 5.483884 5.128169 2.273156
2018M08 16.23495 5.482762 5.141781 2.264883
2018M09 16.23044 5.48629 5.159595 2.255493
2018M10 16.23661 5.496594 5.165443 2.248129
2018M11 16.24164 5.492444 5.161071 2.251292
2018M12 16.26099 5.497291 5.161575 2.250239
2019M01 16.26181 5.501789 5.174849 2.250239
2019M02 16.26701 5.500482 5.174012 2.250239
2019M03 16.27388 5.504722 5.17817 2.251292
2019M04 16.27591 5.504518 5.179241 2.247072
2019M05 16.30471 5.49232 5.167371 2.252344
2019M06 16.31663 5.495733 5.170484 2.259678
2019M07 16.32476 5.514879 5.182884 2.260721
2019M08 16.33828 5.527244 5.19521 2.261763
2019M09 16.34274 5.532322 5.213549 2.257588
2019M10 16.35064 5.527204 5.218684 2.259678
2019M11 16.36142 5.547869 5.219777 2.264883
2019M12 16.38003 5.54506 5.217476 2.270062
113

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
CHINA RAW DATA:

MS IPI (2010=100) CPI(2015=100) BLR
2000M01 1,462,609 108.90 70.9 5.85
2000M02 1,479,970 112.00 71.9 5.85
2000M03 1,501,552 111.90 70.9 5.85
2000M04 1,528,465 111.40 70.4 5.85
2000M05 1,543,517 111.50 70.0 5.85
2000M06 1,564,589 112.20 69.4 5.85
2000M07 1,595,338 112.80 69.0 5.85
2000M08 1,600,464 112.80 69.4 5.85
2000M09 1,619,238 112.00 70.8 5.85
2000M10 1,630,817 111.40 70.8 5.85
2000M11 1,653,789 110.60 71.0 5.85
2000M12 1,665,268 110.40 71.1 5.85
2001M01 1,685,891 102.30 71.8 5.85
2001M02 1,705,429 119.00 71.9 5.85
2001M03 1,724,767 112.10 71.4 5.85
2001M04 1,743,137 111.50 71.6 5.85
2001M05 1,767,564 110.20 71.2 5.85
2001M06 1,788,721 110.10 70.4 5.85
2001M07 1,805,103 108.10 70.0 5.85
2001M08 1,821,054 108.10 70.1 5.85
2001M09 1,838,628 109.50 70.7 5.85
2001M10 1,841,586 108.80 70.9 5.85
2001M11 1,874,412 107.90 70.8 5.85
2001M12 1,899,802 108.70 70.8 5.85
2002M01 1,917,230 118.60 71.1 5.85
2002M02 1,939,945 102.70 71.8 5.85
2002M03 1,962,677 110.90 70.9 5.31
2002M04 1,988,857 112.10 70.7 5.31
2002M05 2,015,038 112.90 70.5 5.31
2002M06 2,046,456 112.40 69.8 5.31
2002M07 2,067,137 112.80 69.4 5.31
2002M08 2,101,370 112.70 69.6 5.31
2002M09 2,140,359 113.80 70.3 5.31
2002M10 2,159,376 114.20 70.4 5.31
2002M11 2,187,641 114.50 70.3 5.31
2002M12 2,215,853 114.90 70.5 5.31
2003M01 2,282,248 114.80 71.3 5.31
2003M02 2,289,691 119.80 72.0 5.31
2003M03 2,337,083 116.90 71.5 5.31
114

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2003M04 2,372,659 114.90 71.4 5.31

2003M05 2,419,182 113.70 70.9 5.31
2003M06 2,467,612 116.90 70.0 5.31
2003M07 2,495,569 116.50 69.7 5.31
2003M08 2,549,555 117.10 70.2 5.31
2003M09 2,578,235 116.30 71.0 5.31
2003M10 2,612,704 117.20 71.7 5.31
2003M11 2,636,816 117.90 72.4 5.31
2003M12 2,662,553 118.10 72.8 5.31
2004M01 2,675,848 107.20 73.6 5.31
2004M02 2,710,902 123.20 73.5 5.31
2004M03 2,753,014 119.40 73.4 5.31
2004M04 2,786,513 119.10 74.1 5.31
2004M05 2,810,277 117.50 74.0 5.31
2004M06 2,832,067 116.20 73.5 5.31
2004M07 2,857,854 115.50 73.3 5.31
2004M08 2,868,000 115.90 73.8 5.31
2004M09 2,905,683 116.10 74.6 5.31
2004M10 2,940,456 115.70 74.6 5.31
2004M11 2,978,850 114.80 74.4 5.58
2004M12 3,017,646 114.40 74.5 5.58
2005M01 3,060,105 120.90 74.9 5.58
2005M02 3,093,410 107.60 76.3 5.58
2005M03 3,141,422 115.10 75.6 5.58
2005M04 3,184,438 116.00 75.4 5.58
2005M05 3,215,293 116.60 75.2 5.58
2005M06 3,276,647 116.80 74.6 5.58
2005M07 3,333,377 116.10 74.6 5.58
2005M08 3,436,960 116.00 74.8 5.58
2005M09 3,498,697 116.50 75.3 5.58
2005M10 3,550,145 116.10 75.6 5.58
2005M11 3,607,882 116.60 75.4 5.58
2005M12 3,661,901 116.50 75.7 5.58
2006M01 3,276,974 76.6 5.59
2006M02 3,791,650 120.10 77.0 5.59
2006M03 3,832,386 117.80 76.3 5.59
2006M04 3,901,099 116.60 76.5 5.59
2006M05 3,955,137 117.90 76.4 5.59
2006M06 4,000,070 119.50 76.0 5.85
2006M07 4,068,976 116.70 75.8 5.85
2006M08 4,122,154 115.70 76.0 5.85
115

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2006M09 4,181,577 116.10 76.4 5.85

2006M10 4,258,327 114.70 76.5 6.12
2006M11 4,334,559 114.90 76.7 6.12
2006M12 4,419,270 114.70 77.8 6.12
2007M01 4,509,702 78.3 6.12
2007M02 4,579,746 112.60 79.1 6.12
2007M03 4,664,541 117.60 78.9 6.12
2007M04 4,730,553 117.40 78.8 6.39
2007M05 4,804,633 118.10 79.0 6.39
2007M06 4,908,434 119.40 79.4 6.57
2007M07 5,022,511 118.00 80.1 6.59
2007M08 5,113,182 117.50 81.0 6.67
2007M09 5,243,477 118.90 81.3 7.29
2007M10 5,340,017 117.90 81.5 7.29
2007M11 5,454,673 117.30 82.1 7.29
2007M12 5,512,295 117.40 82.9 7.47
2008M01 5,706,035 83.9 7.5
2008M02 5,830,417 115.40 86.1 7.5
2008M03 5,927,615 117.80 85.5 7.5
2008M04 6,099,243 115.70 85.6 7.5
2008M05 6,233,556 116.00 85.2 7.5
2008M06 6,375,474 116.00 85.1 7.5
2008M07 6,527,885 114.70 85.1 7.5
2008M08 6,577,788 112.80 85.1 7.5
2008M09 6,665,807 111.40 85.1 7.5
2008M10 6,714,023 108.20 84.8 7.2
2008M11 6,830,988 105.40 84.1 6.9
2008M12 6,998,049 105.70 84.0 6.6
2009M01 7,221,242 84.7 5.31
2009M02 7,402,437 111.00 84.7 5.31
2009M03 7,677,784 108.30 84.5 5.31
2009M04 7,881,125 107.30 84.3 5.31
2009M05 8,034,452 108.90 84.0 5.31
2009M06 8,268,110 110.70 83.6 5.31
2009M07 8,370,597 110.80 83.6 5.31
2009M08 8,474,672 112.30 84.0 5.31
2009M09 8,591,379 113.90 84.4 5.31
2009M10 8,700,006 116.10 84.3 5.31
2009M11 8,833,150 119.20 84.5 5.31
2009M12 8,870,273 118.50 85.4 5.31
2010M01 9,181,910 85.9 5.81
116

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2010M02 9,298,022 112.80 86.9 5.81

2010M03 9,439,376 118.10 86.3 5.81
2010M04 9,505,998 117.80 86.5 5.81
2010M05 9,672,778 116.50 86.4 5.81
2010M06 9,746,102 113.70 85.9 5.81
2010M07 9,931,242 113.40 86.2 5.81
2010M08 10,125,670 113.90 86.7 5.81
2010M09 10,374,834 113.30 87.3 5.81
2010M10 10,682,086 113.10 87.9 5.81
2010M11 10,866,216 113.30 88.8 5.81
2010M12 11,037,671 113.50 89.3 5.81
2011M01 11,098,504 90.2 6.56
2011M02 11,219,668 114.90 91.3 6.56
2011M03 11,428,381 114.80 91.2 6.56
2011M04 11,534,103 113.40 91.2 6.56
2011M05 11,722,663 113.30 91.3 6.56
2011M06 11,912,646 115.10 91.6 6.56
2011M07 11,993,312 114.00 92.0 6.56
2011M08 12,220,885 113.50 92.3 6.56
2011M09 12,357,095 113.80 92.7 6.56
2011M10 13,033,635 113.20 92.8 6.56
2011M11 13,207,624 112.40 92.6 6.56
2011M12 13,473,542 112.80 92.9 6.56
2012M01 13,515,214 94.3 6.57
2012M02 13,816,410 121.30 94.2 6.57
2012M03 13,944,366 111.90 94.4 6.57
2012M04 14,103,420 109.30 94.3 6.57
2012M05 14,220,592 109.60 94.0 6.57
2012M06 14,301,171 109.50 93.5 6.31
2012M07 14,462,916 109.20 93.6 6.31
2012M08 14,551,065 108.90 94.2 6
2012M09 14,946,487 109.20 94.5 6
2012M10 15,181,473 109.60 94.4 6
2012M11 15,374,892 110.10 94.5 6
2012M12 15,635,795 110.30 95.2 6
2013M01 15,917,099 96.2 6
2013M02 16,071,162 109.90 97.2 6
2013M03 16,423,239 108.90 96.4 6
2013M04 16,601,591 109.30 96.6 6
2013M05 16,899,998 109.20 96.0 6
2013M06 16,923,641 108.90 96.0 6
117

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2013M07 17,248,178 109.70 96.1 6

2013M08 17,411,677 110.40 96.6 6
2013M09 17,651,492 110.20 97.3 6
2013M10 17,797,614 110.30 97.4 6
2013M11 18,011,013 110.00 97.3 6
2013M12 18,249,580 109.70 97.6 6
2014M01 18,508,486 98.6 6
2014M02 18,681,317 108.60 99.1 6
2014M03 18,485,606 108.80 98.6 6
2014M04 18,731,469 108.70 98.2 6
2014M05 18,898,990 108.80 98.3 6
2014M06 19,112,429 109.20 98.2 6
2014M07 19,303,530 109.00 98.2 6
2014M08 19,533,157 106.90 98.4 6
2014M09 19,573,344 108.00 98.9 6
2014M10 19,864,949 107.70 98.9 6
2014M11 20,048,295 107.20 98.6 6
2014M12 19,901,852 107.90 99.0 5.59
2015M01 20,029,350 99.3 5.6
2015M02 20,110,944 106.80 99.3 5.6
2015M03 20,339,692 105.60 99.9 5.35
2015M04 20,682,342 105.90 99.7 5.35
2015M05 21,016,684 106.10 99.5 5.35
2015M06 21,262,957 106.80 99.5 5.15
2015M07 21,745,252 106.00 99.9 5.15
2015M08 21,343,893 106.10 100.4 4.8
2015M09 21,396,130 105.70 100.5 4.8
2015M10 21,677,285 105.60 100.1 4.55
2015M11 21,838,718 106.20 100.1 4.35
2015M12 21,724,876 105.90 100.6 4.35
2016M01 21,492,530 101.1 4.35
2016M02 21,765,103 105.40 102.7 4.35
2016M03 22,108,078 106.80 102.2 4.35
2016M04 22,290,469 106.00 102.0 4.35
2016M05 22,341,915 106.00 101.6 4.35
2016M06 22,343,623 106.20 101.4 4.35
2016M07 22,278,235 106.00 101.6 4.35
2016M08 22,644,435 106.30 101.7 4.35
2016M09 22,776,423 106.10 102.4 4.35
2016M10 22,817,556 106.10 102.3 4.35
2016M11 22,630,332 106.20 102.4 4.35
118

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2016M12 22,514,076 106.00 102.6 4.35

2017M01 22,862,786 103.7 4.35
2017M02 23,074,126 106.30 103.5 4.35
2017M03 23,057,702 107.60 103.2 4.35
2017M04 23,181,123 106.50 103.2 4.35
2017M05 23,181,965 106.50 103.1 4.35
2017M06 23,662,196 107.60 103.0 4.35
2017M07 23,985,287 106.40 103.1 4.35
2017M08 24,587,401 106.00 103.5 4.35
2017M09 25,213,030 106.60 104.1 4.35
2017M10 25,225,088 106.20 104.2 4.35
2017M11 25,489,033 106.10 104.2 4.35
2017M12 25,615,240 106.20 104.5 4.35
2018M01 26,461,679 105.2 4.35
2018M02 27,141,051 107.20 106.5 4.35
2018M03 27,205,733 106.00 105.3 4.35
2018M04 27,420,792 107.00 105.1 4.35
2018M05 27,143,781 106.80 104.9 4.35
2018M06 26,893,552 106.00 104.9 4.35
2018M07 26,127,955 106.00 105.2 4.35
2018M08 25,748,660 106.10 105.9 4.35
2018M09 25,957,200 105.80 106.6 4.35
2018M10 26,110,997 105.90 106.8 4.35
2018M11 26,317,947 105.40 106.4 4.35
2018M12 26,683,978 105.70 106.5 4.35
2019M01 27,306,367 107.0 4.35
2019M02 27,653,851 105.30 108.1 4.35
2019M03 27,973,733 108.50 107.7 4.35
2019M04 28,117,300 105.40 107.8 4.35
2019M05 27,711,803 105.00 107.8 4.35
2019M06 27,706,264 106.30 107.7 4.35
2019M07 27,964,289 104.80 108.1 4.35
2019M08 27,437,178 104.40 108.9 4.35
2019M09 27,453,112 105.80 109.8 4.35
2019M10 28,945,601 104.70 110.8 4.35
2019M11 28,961,431 106.70 111.2 4.35
2019M12 28,968,490 106.90 111.2 4.35
119

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
CHINA LOG DATA:

2000M01 14.19573 4.69043 4.26127 1.766442
2000M02 14.20753 4.718499 4.275276 1.766442
2000M03 14.22201 4.717606 4.26127 1.766442
2000M04 14.23977 4.713127 4.254193 1.766442
2000M05 14.24957 4.714025 4.248495 1.766442
2000M06 14.26313 4.720283 4.239887 1.766442
2000M07 14.2826 4.725616 4.234107 1.766442
2000M08 14.2858 4.725616 4.239887 1.766442
2000M09 14.29747 4.718499 4.259859 1.766442
2000M10 14.30459 4.713127 4.259859 1.766442
2000M11 14.31858 4.70592 4.26268 1.766442
2000M12 14.3255 4.70411 4.264087 1.766442
2001M01 14.3378 4.62791 4.273884 1.766442
2001M02 14.34933 4.779123 4.275276 1.766442
2001M03 14.3606 4.719391 4.268298 1.766442
2001M04 14.3712 4.714025 4.271095 1.766442
2001M05 14.38511 4.702297 4.265493 1.766442
2001M06 14.39701 4.701389 4.254193 1.766442
2001M07 14.40613 4.683057 4.248495 1.766442
2001M08 14.41493 4.683057 4.249923 1.766442
2001M09 14.42453 4.695925 4.258446 1.766442
2001M10 14.42614 4.689511 4.26127 1.766442
2001M11 14.44381 4.681205 4.259859 1.766442
2001M12 14.45726 4.688592 4.259859 1.766442
2002M01 14.46639 4.775756 4.264087 1.766442
2002M02 14.47817 4.631812 4.273884 1.766442
2002M03 14.48982 4.708629 4.26127 1.669592
2002M04 14.50307 4.719391 4.258446 1.669592
2002M05 14.51615 4.726502 4.255613 1.669592
2002M06 14.53162 4.722064 4.245634 1.669592
2002M07 14.54168 4.725616 4.239887 1.669592
2002M08 14.5581 4.724729 4.242765 1.669592
2002M09 14.57648 4.734443 4.252772 1.669592
2002M10 14.58533 4.737951 4.254193 1.669592
2002M11 14.59833 4.740575 4.252772 1.669592
2002M12 14.61115 4.744062 4.255613 1.669592
2003M01 14.64067 4.743191 4.266896 1.669592
2003M02 14.64393 4.785824 4.276666 1.669592
2003M03 14.66441 4.761319 4.269697 1.669592
120

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2003M04 14.67952 4.744062 4.268298 1.669592

2003M05 14.69894 4.733563 4.26127 1.669592
2003M06 14.71876 4.761319 4.248495 1.669592
2003M07 14.73003 4.757891 4.2442 1.669592
2003M08 14.75143 4.763028 4.251348 1.669592
2003M09 14.76262 4.756173 4.26268 1.669592
2003M10 14.7759 4.763882 4.272491 1.669592
2003M11 14.78508 4.769837 4.282206 1.669592
2003M12 14.7948 4.771532 4.287716 1.669592
2004M01 14.79978 4.674696 4.298645 1.669592
2004M02 14.81279 4.813809 4.297285 1.669592
2004M03 14.82821 4.782479 4.295924 1.669592
2004M04 14.8403 4.779963 4.305416 1.669592
2004M05 14.84879 4.766438 4.304065 1.669592
2004M06 14.85652 4.755313 4.297285 1.669592
2004M07 14.86558 4.749271 4.294561 1.669592
2004M08 14.86913 4.752728 4.301359 1.669592
2004M09 14.88218 4.754452 4.312141 1.669592
2004M10 14.89408 4.751001 4.312141 1.669592
2004M11 14.90705 4.743191 4.309456 1.719189
2004M12 14.91999 4.739701 4.310799 1.719189
2005M01 14.93396 4.794964 4.316154 1.719189
2005M02 14.94478 4.678421 4.334673 1.719189
2005M03 14.96019 4.745801 4.325456 1.719189
2005M04 14.97379 4.75359 4.322807 1.719189
2005M05 14.98343 4.758749 4.320151 1.719189
2005M06 15.00233 4.760463 4.312141 1.719189
2005M07 15.0195 4.754452 4.312141 1.719189
2005M08 15.0501 4.75359 4.314818 1.719189
2005M09 15.0679 4.757891 4.32148 1.719189
2005M10 15.0825 4.754452 4.325456 1.719189
2005M11 15.09863 4.758749 4.322807 1.719189
2005M12 15.11349 4.757891 4.326778 1.719189
2006M01 15.00243 4.338597 1.720979
2006M02 15.14831 4.788325 4.343805 1.720979
2006M03 15.159 4.768988 4.334673 1.720979
2006M04 15.17677 4.758749 4.337291 1.720979
2006M05 15.19053 4.769837 4.335983 1.720979
2006M06 15.20182 4.783316 4.330733 1.766442
2006M07 15.2189 4.759607 4.328098 1.766442
2006M08 15.23189 4.751001 4.330733 1.766442
121

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2006M09 15.2462 4.754452 4.335983 1.766442

2006M10 15.26439 4.74232 4.337291 1.811562
2006M11 15.28213 4.744062 4.339902 1.811562
2006M12 15.30149 4.74232 4.354141 1.811562
2007M01 15.32174 4.360548 1.811562
2007M02 15.33715 4.723842 4.370713 1.811562
2007M03 15.3555 4.767289 4.368181 1.811562
2007M04 15.36955 4.765587 4.366913 1.854734
2007M05 15.38509 4.771532 4.369448 1.854734
2007M06 15.40647 4.782479 4.374498 1.882514
2007M07 15.42944 4.770685 4.383276 1.885553
2007M08 15.44733 4.766438 4.394449 1.89762
2007M09 15.4725 4.778283 4.398146 1.986504
2007M10 15.49074 4.769837 4.400603 1.986504
2007M11 15.51198 4.764735 4.407938 1.986504
2007M12 15.52249 4.765587 4.417635 2.010895
2008M01 15.55703 4.429626 2.014903
2008M02 15.5786 4.748404 4.455509 2.014903
2008M03 15.59513 4.768988 4.448516 2.014903
2008M04 15.62368 4.751001 4.449685 2.014903
2008M05 15.64546 4.75359 4.445001 2.014903
2008M06 15.66797 4.75359 4.443827 2.014903
2008M07 15.69159 4.74232 4.443827 2.014903
2008M08 15.69921 4.725616 4.443827 2.014903
2008M09 15.7125 4.713127 4.443827 2.014903
2008M10 15.71971 4.683981 4.440296 1.974081
2008M11 15.73698 4.657763 4.432007 1.931521
2008M12 15.76114 4.660605 4.430817 1.88707
2009M01 15.79254 4.439116 1.669592
2009M02 15.81732 4.70953 4.439116 1.669592
2009M03 15.85384 4.684905 4.436752 1.669592
2009M04 15.87998 4.675629 4.434382 1.669592
2009M05 15.89925 4.69043 4.430817 1.669592
2009M06 15.92792 4.706824 4.426044 1.669592
2009M07 15.94024 4.707727 4.426044 1.669592
2009M08 15.95259 4.721174 4.430817 1.669592
2009M09 15.96627 4.735321 4.435567 1.669592
2009M10 15.97883 4.754452 4.434382 1.669592
2009M11 15.99402 4.780803 4.436752 1.669592
2009M12 15.99822 4.774913 4.447346 1.669592
2010M01 16.03275 4.453184 1.759581
122

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2010M02 16.04531 4.725616 4.464758 1.759581

2010M03 16.0604 4.771532 4.45783 1.759581
2010M04 16.06743 4.768988 4.460144 1.759581
2010M05 16.08483 4.757891 4.458988 1.759581
2010M06 16.09238 4.733563 4.453184 1.759581
2010M07 16.1112 4.730921 4.45667 1.759581
2010M08 16.13058 4.735321 4.462454 1.759581
2010M09 16.15489 4.730039 4.46935 1.759581
2010M10 16.18408 4.728272 4.4762 1.759581
2010M11 16.20117 4.730039 4.486387 1.759581
2010M12 16.21682 4.731803 4.492001 1.759581
2011M01 16.22232 4.502029 1.880991
2011M02 16.23318 4.744062 4.514151 1.880991
2011M03 16.25161 4.743191 4.513055 1.880991
2011M04 16.26082 4.730921 4.513055 1.880991
2011M05 16.27703 4.730039 4.514151 1.880991
2011M06 16.29311 4.745801 4.517431 1.880991
2011M07 16.29986 4.736198 4.521789 1.880991
2011M08 16.31866 4.731803 4.525044 1.880991
2011M09 16.32974 4.734443 4.529368 1.880991
2011M10 16.38304 4.729156 4.530447 1.880991
2011M11 16.3963 4.722064 4.528289 1.880991
2011M12 16.41624 4.725616 4.531524 1.880991
2012M01 16.41933 4.546481 1.882514
2012M02 16.44137 4.798267 4.54542 1.882514
2012M03 16.45059 4.717606 4.547541 1.882514
2012M04 16.46193 4.694096 4.546481 1.882514
2012M05 16.4702 4.696837 4.543295 1.882514
2012M06 16.47585 4.695925 4.537961 1.842136
2012M07 16.4871 4.693181 4.53903 1.842136
2012M08 16.49317 4.69043 4.54542 1.791759
2012M09 16.51999 4.693181 4.5486 1.791759
2012M10 16.53559 4.696837 4.547541 1.791759
2012M11 16.54825 4.701389 4.5486 1.791759
2012M12 16.56507 4.703204 4.55598 1.791759
2013M01 16.5829 4.566429 1.791759
2013M02 16.59254 4.699571 4.576771 1.791759
2013M03 16.61421 4.69043 4.568506 1.791759
2013M04 16.62501 4.694096 4.570579 1.791759
2013M05 16.64282 4.693181 4.564348 1.791759
2013M06 16.64422 4.69043 4.564348 1.791759
123

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2013M07 16.66322 4.697749 4.565389 1.791759

2013M08 16.67265 4.70411 4.570579 1.791759
2013M09 16.68633 4.702297 4.577799 1.791759
2013M10 16.69457 4.703204 4.578826 1.791759
2013M11 16.70649 4.70048 4.577799 1.791759
2013M12 16.71965 4.697749 4.580877 1.791759
2014M01 16.73374 4.591071 1.791759
2014M02 16.74303 4.687671 4.596129 1.791759
2014M03 16.7325 4.689511 4.591071 1.791759
2014M04 16.74572 4.688592 4.587006 1.791759
2014M05 16.75462 4.689511 4.588024 1.791759
2014M06 16.76585 4.693181 4.587006 1.791759
2014M07 16.7758 4.691348 4.587006 1.791759
2014M08 16.78762 4.671894 4.589041 1.791759
2014M09 16.78968 4.682131 4.594109 1.791759
2014M10 16.80447 4.67935 4.594109 1.791759
2014M11 16.81365 4.674696 4.591071 1.791759
2014M12 16.80632 4.681205 4.59512 1.720979
2015M01 16.81271 4.598146 1.722767
2015M02 16.81677 4.670958 4.598146 1.722767
2015M03 16.82808 4.659658 4.60417 1.677097
2015M04 16.84479 4.662495 4.602166 1.677097
2015M05 16.86083 4.664382 4.600158 1.677097
2015M06 16.87248 4.670958 4.600158 1.638997
2015M07 16.89491 4.663439 4.60417 1.638997
2015M08 16.87628 4.664382 4.609162 1.568616
2015M09 16.87872 4.660605 4.610158 1.568616
2015M10 16.89178 4.659658 4.60617 1.515127
2015M11 16.8992 4.665324 4.60617 1.470176
2015M12 16.89397 4.662495 4.611152 1.470176
2016M01 16.88322 4.61611 1.470176
2016M02 16.89582 4.657763 4.631812 1.470176
2016M03 16.91145 4.670958 4.626932 1.470176
2016M04 16.91967 4.663439 4.624973 1.470176
2016M05 16.92198 4.663439 4.621044 1.470176
2016M06 16.92205 4.665324 4.619073 1.470176
2016M07 16.91912 4.663439 4.621044 1.470176
2016M08 16.93542 4.666265 4.622027 1.470176
2016M09 16.94124 4.664382 4.628887 1.470176
2016M10 16.94304 4.664382 4.62791 1.470176
2016M11 16.9348 4.665324 4.628887 1.470176
124

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2016M12 16.92965 4.663439 4.630838 1.470176

2017M01 16.94502 4.641502 1.470176
2017M02 16.95422 4.666265 4.639572 1.470176
2017M03 16.95351 4.678421 4.636669 1.470176
2017M04 16.95885 4.668145 4.636669 1.470176
2017M05 16.95889 4.668145 4.635699 1.470176
2017M06 16.97939 4.678421 4.634729 1.470176
2017M07 16.99295 4.667206 4.635699 1.470176
2017M08 17.01774 4.663439 4.639572 1.470176
2017M09 17.04287 4.669084 4.645352 1.470176
2017M10 17.04335 4.665324 4.646312 1.470176
2017M11 17.05376 4.664382 4.646312 1.470176
2017M12 17.0587 4.665324 4.649187 1.470176
2018M01 17.09121 4.655863 1.470176
2018M02 17.11656 4.674696 4.668145 1.470176
2018M03 17.11894 4.663439 4.656813 1.470176
2018M04 17.12681 4.672829 4.654912 1.470176
2018M05 17.11666 4.670958 4.653008 1.470176
2018M06 17.1074 4.663439 4.653008 1.470176
2018M07 17.07852 4.663439 4.655863 1.470176
2018M08 17.06389 4.664382 4.662495 1.470176
2018M09 17.07196 4.661551 4.669084 1.470176
2018M10 17.07787 4.662495 4.670958 1.470176
2018M11 17.08576 4.657763 4.667206 1.470176
2018M12 17.09957 4.660605 4.668145 1.470176
2019M01 17.12263 4.672829 1.470176
2019M02 17.13528 4.656813 4.683057 1.470176
2019M03 17.14678 4.68675 4.67935 1.470176
2019M04 17.1519 4.657763 4.680278 1.470176
2019M05 17.13737 4.65396 4.680278 1.470176
2019M06 17.13717 4.666265 4.67935 1.470176
2019M07 17.14644 4.652054 4.683057 1.470176
2019M08 17.12741 4.64823 4.69043 1.470176
2019M09 17.12799 4.661551 4.698661 1.470176
2019M10 17.18093 4.651099 4.707727 1.470176
2019M11 17.18148 4.670021 4.71133 1.470176
2019M12 17.18172 4.671894 4.71133 1.470176
125

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
MALAYSIA RAW DATA:

IPI CPI
MS (2015=100) (2010=100) BLR
2000M01 88866.422 72.38 80.3 7.8
2000M02 88996.567 75.19 80.4 7.78
2000M03 89020.849 80.57 80.3 7.74
2000M04 89463.824 79.53 80.3 7.77
2000M05 88734.927 51.56 80.4 7.76
2000M06 89623.265 81 80.4 7.66
2000M07 89481.481 84.25 80.5 7.65
2000M08 89920.011 82.73 80.5 7.65
2000M09 89665.528 85.42 80.5 7.6
2000M10 90882.879 87.54 80.8 7.6
2000M11 90884.359 82.56 80.9 7.57
2000M12 93833.314 86.29 81.3 7.45
2001M01 94269.451 80.44 81.5 7.4
2001M02 93969.274 76.54 81.7 7.38
2001M03 92239.159 80.52 81.5 7.3
2001M04 93234.756 78.18 81.6 7.28
2001M05 92813.008 78.31 81.7 7.26
2001M06 98266.285 73.16 81.6 7.18
2001M07 92885.390 79.44 81.6 7.21
2001M08 93373.066 78.18 81.5 7.14
2001M09 94183.660 77.45 81.6 6.95
2001M10 93528.504 80.18 81.5 6.96
2001M11 94458.573 78.01 82.2 6.82
2001M12 95979.755 78.1 82.2 6.63
2002M01 95621.665 76.23 82.4 6.67
2002M02 97703.887 78.01 82.6 6.62
2002M03 98107.558 78.62 83.2 6.61
2002M04 98745.913 81.69 83.1 6.58
2002M05 98591.691 82.08 83.2 6.62
2002M06 98230.421 77.32 83.3 6.63
2002M07 98424.698 85.98 83.3 6.63
2002M08 98949.826 83.25 83.2 6.63
2002M09 98470.772 84.6 83.3 6.62
2002M10 99501.476 86.5 83.2 6.56
2002M11 101199.377 82.82 83.4 6.57
2002M12 101713.743 84.47 83.6 6.51
2003M01 103127.487 79.57 83.8 6.56
2003M02 103302.452 84.68 83.9 6.54
126

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2003M03 103390.375 85.59 83.8 6.5

2003M04 104435.413 86.72 83.9 6.52
2003M05 106253.837 91.31 84 6.28
2003M06 106421.459 84.42 83.9 6.22
2003M07 106701.203 92.74 84.1 6.22
2003M08 107909.365 89.97 84 6.19
2003M09 108641.719 92.14 84.2 6.16
2003M10 110181.744 96.25 84.2 6.16
2003M11 112099.781 92.61 84.3 6.13
2003M12 113009.600 96.9 84.6 6.11
2004M01 113955.990 94.17 84.6 6.12
2004M02 114794.383 94 84.6 6.13
2004M03 116525.458 97.34 84.6 6.1
2004M04 117443.050 99.33 84.7 6.08
2004M05 117537.703 102.8 85 6.07
2004M06 118521.271 95.34 85.1 5.99
2004M07 119600.450 102.84 85.2 6
2004M08 123744.017 99.51 85.2 6.09
2004M09 128192.986 101.37 85.5 6.01
2004M10 133209.298 103.23 86 6.01
2004M11 137368.306 101.15 86.2 5.99
2004M12 141483.026 103.06 86.3 5.98
2005M01 143051.940 97.12 86.6 5.97
2005M02 143328.821 89.92 86.7 5.95
2005M03 146289.706 104.12 86.7 5.9
2005M04 146296.649 98.12 86.8 5.96
2005M05 148717.320 97.92 87.5 5.94
2005M06 156792.945 99.32 87.7 5.9
2005M07 156423.239 100.92 86.7 5.9
2005M08 160201.620 103.12 88.3 5.92
2005M09 160626.194 103.42 88.5 5.9
2005M10 160873.232 105.32 88.7 5.95
2005M11 160544.890 99.62 89 5.98
2005M12 164464.383 101.32 89.1 6.12
2006M01 169295.966 101.72 89.4 6.15
2006M02 172200.628 96.92 89.5 6.29
2006M03 173609.725 109.22 90.8 6.29
2006M04 176811.086 102.52 90.8 6.42
2006M05 179957.720 104.02 91 6.52
2006M06 181088.402 106.02 91.1 6.26
2006M07 182555.927 107.22 91.3 6.64
127

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2006M08 185416.517 108.32 91.2 6.65

2006M09 185710.622 106.62 91.4 6.64
2006M10 187688.907 103.32 91.4 6.59
2006M11 193058.194 107.02 91.7 6.59
2006M12 205114.228 107.42 91.8 6.58
2007M01 212331.266 105.71 92.3 6.57
2007M02 216368.755 95.56 92.3 6.54
2007M03 216141.228 108.22 92.2 6.54
2007M04 219294.745 104.49 92.2 6.44
2007M05 224209.194 107.4 92.3 6.44
2007M06 217747.300 105.81 92.5 6.48
2007M07 220583.365 109.06 92.8 6.34
2007M08 218396.945 109.06 93 6.35
2007M09 220381.050 108.3 93.1 6.3
2007M10 227752.690 108.82 93.2 6.26
2007M11 229190.797 110.1 93.8 6.31
2007M12 239129.610 115.17 94 6.29
2008M01 253605.999 116.02 94.4 6.26
2008M02 259278.313 105.04 94.8 6.26
2008M03 264829.743 111.54 94.8 6.21
2008M04 272670.213 109.32 95 6.19
2008M05 269761.525 110.02 95.8 6.13
2008M06 266521.524 108.22 99.7 6.08
2008M07 271321.339 114.23 100.8 6.02
2008M08 262023.531 111.02 101 5.98
2008M09 256807.789 107.22 100.8 5.96
2008M10 247231.187 105.92 100.6 6.01
2008M11 245778.403 101.72 99 5.98
2008M12 254609.166 96.92 98.2 5.85
2009M01 256732.746 95.62 98.1 5.78
2009M02 251642.840 92.12 98.3 5.49
2009M03 251002.417 97.42 98.1 5.17
2009M04 254845.117 96.62 97.9 5.1
2009M05 259267.422 97.92 98.1 5.02
2009M06 262435.105 97.92 98.2 5.06
2009M07 263295.752 105.22 98.3 4.94
2009M08 268934.060 103.22 98.4 4.89
2009M09 272332.336 100.72 98.7 4.9
2009M10 280945.345 106.92 98.8 4.9
2009M11 287071.610 101.52 99 4.9
2009M12 290138.388 104.22 99.2 4.84
128

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2010M01 293821.307 101.12 99.4 4.85

2010M02 290479.103 91.27 99.4 4.85
2010M03 301975.073 105.16 99.4 4.96
2010M04 310970.166 97.62 99.4 4.94
2010M05 307830.423 102.6 99.6 5.02
2010M06 308680.763 99.79 99.7 5.06
2010M07 315609.150 100.27 100 5.19
2010M08 324585.658 99.23 100.3 5.23
2010M09 331545.037 99.58 100.4 5.19
2010M10 334285.560 102.61 100.6 4.99
2010M11 337749.033 98.83 100.8 4.85
2010M12 338891.277 101.92 101.2 4.91
2011M01 353771.762 102.08 101.8 4.95
2011M02 352763.532 94.46 102.3 4.96
2011M03 358794.135 106.85 102.4 4.95
2011M04 366467.717 99.79 102.6 4.97
2011M05 370766.707 97.87 102.9 4.94
2011M06 374003.515 103 103.2 4.93
2011M07 376922.743 102.67 103.4 4.88
2011M08 380095.882 104.84 103.6 4.89
2011M09 376996.574 103.57 103.8 4.89
2011M10 369282.830 105.96 104 4.88
2011M11 375942.055 101.75 104.1 4.91
2011M12 384806.512 105.86 104.2 4.83
2012M01 399506.694 104.7 104.5 4.87
2012M02 412961.247 103.1 104.5 4.88
2012M03 412475.108 110.2 104.5 4.74
2012M04 416118.870 101.8 104.5 4.88
2012M05 411110.492 104.5 104.7 4.8
2012M06 405360.463 105.7 104.8 4.88
2012M07 408331.812 102.2 104.8 4.72
2012M08 418618.840 105.2 105 4.73
2012M09 427983.721 108.8 105.2 4.76
2012M10 432002.303 113.1 105.4 4.76
2012M11 432826.057 111.5 105.5 4.71
2012M12 436646.651 109.6 105.5 4.7
2013M01 445746.437 108.3 105.9 4.69
2013M02 438724.568 98.6 106.1 4.72
2013M03 441881.201 111.2 106.2 4.7
2013M04 453557.763 108.2 106.3 4.7
2013M05 463153.006 110.6 106.6 4.61
129

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2013M06 445521.586 109.6 106.7 4.53

2013M07 441689.544 113.2 106.9 4.46
2013M08 430445.845 109.1 107 4.54
2013M09 435827.755 111.2 107.9 4.55
2013M10 448598.550 115.5 108.3 4.54
2013M11 441056.016 113.1 108.6 4.56
2013M12 442107.615 115.3 108.9 4.56
2014M01 438387.193 111.5 109.5 4.53
2014M02 436921.089 105.3 109.8 4.44
2014M03 445066.939 116.2 109.9 4.54
2014M04 451648.582 113.5 109.9 4.53
2014M05 457292.344 117.3 110 4.47
2014M06 459843.807 117 110.2 4.54
2014M07 468216.270 113.9 110.3 4.61
2014M08 466169.565 116.3 110.5 4.69
2014M09 463864.042 117.4 110.7 4.72
2014M10 460540.073 121.6 111.3 4.67
2014M11 453487.162 118.7 111.9 4.65
2014M12 444132.536 123.8 111.8 4.67
2015M01 431212.012 120.1 110.6 4.64
2015M02 431482.043 107.97 109.9 4.67
2015M03 430265.954 120.88 110.9 4.7
2015M04 432863.250 115.36 111.8 4.65
2015M05 435728.591 119.68 112.4 4.61
2015M06 421275.813 119.95 113 4.57
2015M07 410550.495 119.38 113.9 4.54
2015M08 384349.167 116.76 113.9 4.51
2015M09 367096.717 120.69 113.6 4.49
2015M10 370207.386 124.33 114.1 4.54
2015M11 367243.920 118.32 114.8 4.53
2015M12 372941.450 123.15 114.8 4.57
2016M01 365948.879 123.99 114.5 4.58
2016M02 383685.545 112.49 114.5 4.61
2016M03 394708.744 124.03 113.7 4.61
2016M04 410989.495 118.59 114.3 4.6
2016M05 398454.067 123.14 114.6 4.56
2016M06 395134.748 126.4 114.8 4.62
2016M07 398115.384 123.9 115.1 4.53
2016M08 397998.624 122.59 115.6 4.47
2016M09 394609.560 124.38 115.3 4.54
2016M10 390321.339 129.78 115.7 4.46
130

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2016M11 377774.966 126.49 116.9 4.48

2016M12 369566.661 129.51 116.6 4.49
2017M01 373049.760 128.32 118.2 4.54
2017M02 375668.269 117.72 119.7 4.61
2017M03 378903.555 129.2 119.6 4.59
2017M04 380993.751 122.95 119.3 4.58
2017M05 391361.698 128.78 119.1 4.62
2017M06 393701.654 130.57 118.9 4.47
2017M07 391888.012 131.48 118.8 4.61
2017M08 394883.446 130.85 119.9 4.61
2017M09 405853.787 130.36 120.3 4.62
2017M10 406705.659 133.83 120 4.64
2017M11 413951.516 132.3 120.8 4.61
2017M12 424393.891 133.21 120.9 4.61
2018M01 441100.651 135.23 121.3 4.62
2018M02 448419.759 121.27 121.3 4.79
2018M03 457491.225 133.25 120.9 4.86
2018M04 464997.527 128.57 120.9 4.89
2018M05 456164.400 132.6 121.1 4.96
2018M06 452380.033 131.99 119.6 5.5
2018M07 448145.873 134.86 119.8 5.56
2018M08 445301.950 133.76 120 4.98
2018M09 443425.517 133.31 120.5 4.94
2018M10 448071.634 139.5 120.7 4.98
2018M11 447590.469 114.2 121 4.98
2018M12 452191.080 115.9 121.1 5.2
2019M01 456513.833 117.4 120.5 5.04
2019M02 460924.207 103.8 120.8 5.02
2019M03 463515.100 115.6 121.1 5.03
2019M04 462147.104 112.4 121.1 5.02
2019M05 457659.510 116 121.4 4.94
2019M06 456492.164 115.3 121.4 4.89
2019M07 460865.342 114.8 121.5 4.82
2019M08 452883.757 114.5 121.8 4.83
2019M09 455458.859 114.1 121.8 4.76
2019M10 459118.871 117.8 122 4.76
2019M11 463002.052 116.6 122.1 4.73
2019M12 470424.322 117.4 122.3 4.69
131

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
MALAYSIA LOG DATA:

2000M01 11.39489 4.28193 4.38577 2.054124
2000M02 11.39635 4.320018 4.387014 2.051556
2000M03 11.39663 4.389126 4.38577 2.046402
2000M04 11.40159 4.376134 4.38577 2.05027
2000M05 11.39341 3.942746 4.387014 2.048982
2000M06 11.40337 4.394449 4.387014 2.036012
2000M07 11.40179 4.433789 4.388257 2.034706
2000M08 11.40668 4.415582 4.388257 2.034706
2000M09 11.40384 4.44758 4.388257 2.028148
2000M10 11.41733 4.472096 4.391977 2.028148
2000M11 11.41734 4.413525 4.393214 2.024193
2000M12 11.44928 4.457714 4.398146 2.008214
2001M01 11.45391 4.387512 4.400603 2.00148
2001M02 11.45072 4.337813 4.403054 1.998774
2001M03 11.43214 4.388506 4.400603 1.987874
2001M04 11.44288 4.359014 4.401829 1.985131
2001M05 11.43834 4.360675 4.403054 1.98238
2001M06 11.49544 4.292649 4.401829 1.971299
2001M07 11.43912 4.375002 4.401829 1.975469
2001M08 11.44436 4.359014 4.400603 1.965713
2001M09 11.453 4.349633 4.401829 1.938742
2001M10 11.44602 4.384274 4.400603 1.940179
2001M11 11.45592 4.356837 4.409155 1.919859
2001M12 11.47189 4.35799 4.409155 1.891605
2002M01 11.46815 4.333755 4.411585 1.89762
2002M02 11.4897 4.356837 4.41401 1.890095
2002M03 11.49382 4.364626 4.421247 1.888584
2002M04 11.50031 4.402932 4.420045 1.884035
2002M05 11.49874 4.407694 4.421247 1.890095
2002M06 11.49507 4.347953 4.422449 1.891605
2002M07 11.49705 4.454115 4.422449 1.891605
2002M08 11.50237 4.421848 4.421247 1.891605
2002M09 11.49752 4.437934 4.422449 1.890095
2002M10 11.50793 4.460144 4.421247 1.880991
2002M11 11.52485 4.41667 4.423648 1.882514
2002M12 11.52992 4.436396 4.426044 1.873339
2003M01 11.54372 4.376637 4.428433 1.880991
2003M02 11.54542 4.438879 4.429626 1.877937
2003M03 11.54627 4.449568 4.428433 1.871802
132

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2003M04 11.55632 4.462685 4.429626 1.874874

2003M05 11.57359 4.51426 4.430817 1.83737
2003M06 11.57516 4.435804 4.429626 1.82777
2003M07 11.57779 4.5298 4.432007 1.82777
2003M08 11.58905 4.499476 4.430817 1.822935
2003M09 11.59581 4.523309 4.433195 1.818077
2003M10 11.60989 4.566949 4.433195 1.818077
2003M11 11.62714 4.528397 4.434382 1.813195
2003M12 11.63523 4.57368 4.437934 1.809927
2004M01 11.64357 4.545102 4.437934 1.811562
2004M02 11.6509 4.543295 4.437934 1.813195
2004M03 11.66587 4.57821 4.437934 1.808289
2004M04 11.67371 4.598448 4.439116 1.805005
2004M05 11.67451 4.632785 4.442651 1.803359
2004M06 11.68285 4.557449 4.443827 1.790091
2004M07 11.69191 4.633174 4.445001 1.791759
2004M08 11.72597 4.600258 4.445001 1.806648
2004M09 11.76129 4.618777 4.448516 1.793425
2004M10 11.79968 4.63696 4.454347 1.793425
2004M11 11.83042 4.616605 4.45667 1.790091
2004M12 11.85994 4.635311 4.45783 1.788421
2005M01 11.87096 4.575947 4.4613 1.786747
2005M02 11.8729 4.49892 4.462454 1.783391
2005M03 11.89334 4.645544 4.462454 1.774952
2005M04 11.89339 4.586191 4.463607 1.78507
2005M05 11.9098 4.584151 4.471639 1.781709
2005M06 11.96268 4.598347 4.473922 1.774952
2005M07 11.96032 4.614328 4.462454 1.774952
2005M08 11.98419 4.635893 4.48074 1.778336
2005M09 11.98684 4.638798 4.483003 1.774952
2005M10 11.98837 4.657003 4.48526 1.783391
2005M11 11.98633 4.601363 4.488636 1.788421
2005M12 12.01045 4.618284 4.489759 1.811562
2006M01 12.0394 4.622224 4.493121 1.816452
2006M02 12.05642 4.573886 4.494239 1.838961
2006M03 12.06457 4.693364 4.508659 1.838961
2006M04 12.08284 4.630058 4.508659 1.859418
2006M05 12.10048 4.644583 4.51086 1.874874
2006M06 12.10674 4.663628 4.511958 1.83418
2006M07 12.11481 4.674883 4.514151 1.893112
2006M08 12.13036 4.68509 4.513055 1.894617
133

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2006M09 12.13194 4.669271 4.515245 1.893112

2006M10 12.14254 4.637831 4.515245 1.885553
2006M11 12.17075 4.673016 4.518522 1.885553
2006M12 12.23132 4.676746 4.519612 1.884035
2007M01 12.2659 4.660699 4.525044 1.882514
2007M02 12.28474 4.559754 4.525044 1.877937
2007M03 12.28369 4.684166 4.52396 1.877937
2007M04 12.29817 4.649091 4.52396 1.862529
2007M05 12.32033 4.67656 4.525044 1.862529
2007M06 12.29109 4.661645 4.527209 1.868721
2007M07 12.30403 4.691898 4.530447 1.846879
2007M08 12.29407 4.691898 4.532599 1.848455
2007M09 12.30311 4.684905 4.533674 1.84055
2007M10 12.33602 4.689695 4.534748 1.83418
2007M11 12.34231 4.701389 4.541165 1.842136
2007M12 12.38476 4.746409 4.543295 1.838961
2008M01 12.44354 4.753763 4.547541 1.83418
2008M02 12.46566 4.654341 4.551769 1.83418
2008M03 12.48684 4.714383 4.551769 1.826161
2008M04 12.51602 4.694279 4.553877 1.822935
2008M05 12.50529 4.700662 4.562263 1.813195
2008M06 12.49321 4.684166 4.602166 1.805005
2008M07 12.51106 4.738214 4.613138 1.795087
2008M08 12.47619 4.70971 4.615121 1.788421
2008M09 12.45608 4.674883 4.613138 1.78507
2008M10 12.41808 4.662684 4.611152 1.793425
2008M11 12.41219 4.622224 4.59512 1.788421
2008M12 12.44748 4.573886 4.587006 1.766442
2009M01 12.45579 4.560382 4.585987 1.754404
2009M02 12.43577 4.523092 4.588024 1.702928
2009M03 12.43322 4.579032 4.585987 1.642873
2009M04 12.44841 4.570786 4.583947 1.629241
2009M05 12.46562 4.584151 4.585987 1.61343
2009M06 12.47776 4.584151 4.587006 1.621366
2009M07 12.48103 4.656053 4.588024 1.597365
2009M08 12.50222 4.636863 4.589041 1.587192
2009M09 12.51478 4.612344 4.592085 1.589235
2009M10 12.54592 4.672081 4.593098 1.589235
2009M11 12.56749 4.620256 4.59512 1.589235
2009M12 12.57811 4.646504 4.597138 1.576915
2010M01 12.59073 4.616308 4.599152 1.578979
134

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2010M02 12.57929 4.513822 4.599152 1.578979

2010M03 12.6181 4.655483 4.599152 1.601406
2010M04 12.64745 4.581082 4.599152 1.597365
2010M05 12.6373 4.630838 4.601162 1.61343
2010M06 12.64006 4.603068 4.602166 1.621366
2010M07 12.66226 4.607867 4.60517 1.646734
2010M08 12.6903 4.59744 4.608166 1.654411
2010M09 12.71152 4.600961 4.609162 1.646734
2010M10 12.71975 4.630935 4.611152 1.607436
2010M11 12.73006 4.593401 4.613138 1.578979
2010M12 12.73343 4.624188 4.617099 1.591274
2011M01 12.77641 4.625757 4.62301 1.599388
2011M02 12.77355 4.548176 4.62791 1.601406
2011M03 12.7905 4.671426 4.628887 1.599388
2011M04 12.81167 4.603068 4.630838 1.60342
2011M05 12.82333 4.58364 4.633758 1.597365
2011M06 12.83202 4.634729 4.636669 1.595339
2011M07 12.8398 4.63152 4.638605 1.585145
2011M08 12.84818 4.652435 4.640537 1.587192
2011M09 12.83999 4.640248 4.642466 1.587192
2011M10 12.81932 4.663062 4.644391 1.585145
2011M11 12.83719 4.622519 4.645352 1.591274
2011M12 12.8605 4.662117 4.646312 1.574846
2012M01 12.89799 4.651099 4.649187 1.583094
2012M02 12.93111 4.635699 4.649187 1.585145
2012M03 12.92993 4.702297 4.649187 1.556037
2012M04 12.93873 4.62301 4.649187 1.585145
2012M05 12.92662 4.649187 4.651099 1.568616
2012M06 12.91253 4.660605 4.652054 1.585145
2012M07 12.91984 4.626932 4.652054 1.551809
2012M08 12.94472 4.655863 4.65396 1.553925
2012M09 12.96684 4.689511 4.655863 1.560248
2012M10 12.97619 4.728272 4.657763 1.560248
2012M11 12.97809 4.714025 4.658711 1.549688
2012M12 12.98688 4.696837 4.658711 1.547563
2013M01 13.00751 4.684905 4.662495 1.545433
2013M02 12.99163 4.591071 4.664382 1.551809
2013M03 12.9988 4.71133 4.665324 1.547563
2013M04 13.02488 4.683981 4.666265 1.547563
2013M05 13.04581 4.70592 4.669084 1.528228
2013M06 13.007 4.696837 4.670021 1.510722
135

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2013M07 12.99836 4.729156 4.671894 1.495149

2013M08 12.97258 4.692265 4.672829 1.512927
2013M09 12.985 4.71133 4.681205 1.515127
2013M10 13.01388 4.749271 4.684905 1.512927
2013M11 12.99693 4.728272 4.687671 1.517323
2013M12 12.99931 4.747537 4.69043 1.517323
2014M01 12.99086 4.714025 4.695925 1.510722
2014M02 12.98751 4.656813 4.698661 1.490654
2014M03 13.00598 4.755313 4.699571 1.512927
2014M04 13.02066 4.731803 4.699571 1.510722
2014M05 13.03308 4.764735 4.70048 1.497388
2014M06 13.03864 4.762174 4.702297 1.512927
2014M07 13.05669 4.735321 4.703204 1.528228
2014M08 13.0523 4.756173 4.705016 1.545433
2014M09 13.04735 4.765587 4.706824 1.551809
2014M10 13.04016 4.800737 4.712229 1.541159
2014M11 13.02472 4.776599 4.717606 1.536867
2014M12 13.00388 4.818667 4.716712 1.541159
2015M01 12.97436 4.788325 4.70592 1.534714
2015M02 12.97498 4.681853 4.699571 1.541159
2015M03 12.97216 4.794798 4.708629 1.547563
2015M04 12.97818 4.748058 4.716712 1.536867
2015M05 12.98477 4.784822 4.722064 1.528228
2015M06 12.95104 4.787075 4.727388 1.519513
2015M07 12.92525 4.782312 4.735321 1.512927
2015M08 12.85931 4.760121 4.735321 1.506297
2015M09 12.81338 4.793225 4.732684 1.501853
2015M10 12.82182 4.822939 4.737075 1.512927
2015M11 12.81378 4.773393 4.743191 1.510722
2015M12 12.82918 4.813403 4.743191 1.519513
2016M01 12.81025 4.820201 4.740575 1.521699
2016M02 12.85758 4.722864 4.740575 1.528228
2016M03 12.8859 4.820523 4.733563 1.528228
2016M04 12.92632 4.775672 4.738827 1.526056
2016M05 12.89535 4.813322 4.741448 1.517323
2016M06 12.88698 4.839451 4.743191 1.530395
2016M07 12.8945 4.819475 4.745801 1.510722
2016M08 12.8942 4.808845 4.750136 1.497388
2016M09 12.88565 4.823341 4.747537 1.512927
2016M10 12.87473 4.865841 4.751001 1.495149
2016M11 12.84205 4.840163 4.761319 1.499623
136

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2016M12 12.82009 4.863758 4.758749 1.501853

2017M01 12.82947 4.854527 4.772378 1.512927
2017M02 12.83646 4.768309 4.784989 1.528228
2017M03 12.84504 4.861362 4.784153 1.52388
2017M04 12.85054 4.811778 4.781641 1.521699
2017M05 12.87739 4.858106 4.779963 1.530395
2017M06 12.88335 4.871909 4.778283 1.497388
2017M07 12.87873 4.878855 4.777441 1.528228
2017M08 12.88635 4.874052 4.786658 1.528228
2017M09 12.91375 4.8703 4.789989 1.530395
2017M10 12.91585 4.89657 4.787492 1.534714
2017M11 12.9335 4.885072 4.794136 1.528228
2017M12 12.95842 4.891927 4.794964 1.528228
2018M01 12.99703 4.906977 4.798267 1.530395
2018M02 13.01349 4.798019 4.798267 1.56653
2018M03 13.03351 4.892227 4.794964 1.581038
2018M04 13.04979 4.856474 4.794964 1.587192
2018M05 13.03061 4.887337 4.796617 1.601406
2018M06 13.02228 4.882726 4.784153 1.704748
2018M07 13.01287 4.904237 4.785824 1.715598
2018M08 13.00651 4.896047 4.787492 1.60543
2018M09 13.00229 4.892677 4.79165 1.597365
2018M10 13.01271 4.938065 4.793308 1.60543
2018M11 13.01163 4.737951 4.795791 1.60543
2018M12 13.02186 4.752728 4.796617 1.648659
2019M01 13.03137 4.765587 4.79165 1.617406
2019M02 13.04099 4.642466 4.794136 1.61343
2019M03 13.04659 4.750136 4.796617 1.61542
2019M04 13.04364 4.722064 4.796617 1.61343
2019M05 13.03388 4.75359 4.799091 1.597365
2019M06 13.03133 4.747537 4.799091 1.587192
2019M07 13.04086 4.743191 4.799914 1.572774
2019M08 13.02339 4.740575 4.80238 1.574846
2019M09 13.02906 4.737075 4.80238 1.560248
2019M10 13.03706 4.768988 4.804021 1.560248
2019M11 13.04549 4.758749 4.80484 1.553925
2019M12 13.06139 4.765587 4.806477 1.545433
137

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
SINGAPORE RAW DATA:

MS IPI (2015=100) CPI (2019=100) BLR
2000M01 102925.882 51.262 73.942 5.8
2000M02 101038.995 42.562 74.294 5.85
2000M03 99864.805 52.516 74.038 5.85
2000M04 98880.791 45.932 74.146 5.85
2000M05 98149.369 52.986 73.877 5.85
2000M06 99404.410 55.651 73.998 5.85
2000M07 97842.311 51.968 74.377 5.85
2000M08 98651.168 56.592 74.769 5.8
2000M09 96613.122 59.962 74.786 5.85
2000M10 95487.760 59.257 74.844 5.8
2000M11 96950.051 56.592 75.008 5.8
2000M12 97925.926 59.413 75.135 5.8
2001M01 99368.297 45.854 75.412 5.8
2001M02 99698.595 48.362 75.27 5.8
2001M03 98649.504 56.121 75.404 5.8
2001M04 97671.928 46.402 75.611 5.8
2001M05 97403.230 47.656 75.306 5.8
2001M06 96400.715 46.638 74.894 5.8
2001M07 94188.779 44.834 75.343 5.8
2001M08 98309.417 44.6 75.299 5.8
2001M09 100930.262 46.638 75.194 5.48
2001M10 97714.735 47.029 75.005 5.3
2001M11 99547.800 49.224 74.847 5.3
2001M12 97958.601 46.402 74.692 5.3
2002M01 96917.310 47.108 74.583 5.3
2002M02 97328.036 45.562 74.803 5.346
2002M03 98915.113 53.849 74.734 5.346
2002M04 98525.075 50.243 74.813 5.346
2002M05 99968.285 54.162 75.046 5.346
2002M06 100732.376 55.26 75 5.346
2002M07 102149.167 53.3 75.022 5.346
2002M08 101467.100 52.045 74.97 5.346
2002M09 100737.812 52.124 74.876 5.346
2002M10 100289.525 52.829 74.855 5.346
2002M11 102330.879 48.675 75.022 5.346
2002M12 102514.545 55.573 75.018 5.346
2003M01 103653.746 53.535 75.235 5.35
2003M02 103773.996 41.699 75.097 5.33
2003M03 103730.158 57.141 75.306 5.3
138

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2003M04 103506.668 48.282 75.459 5.3

2003M05 106177.565 49.459 74.98 5.3
2003M06 106491.326 51.889 74.757 5.3
2003M07 105868.270 49.93 75.223 5.3
2003M08 106679.576 57.689 75.312 5.3
2003M09 106790.851 55.181 75.391 5.3
2003M10 111448.544 62.862 75.34 5.3
2003M11 112592.235 52.672 75.442 5.3
2003M12 113692.816 55.964 75.577 5.3
2004M01 117445.464 56.984 75.741 5.3
2004M02 118517.339 53.535 76.613 5.3
2004M03 117864.851 57.454 76.051 5.3
2004M04 120878.747 58.708 76.563 5.3
2004M05 119093.261 59.179 76.747 5.3
2004M06 119228.000 61.765 76.147 5.3
2004M07 119268.267 58.943 76.758 5.3
2004M08 119076.057 60.04 76.659 5.3
2004M09 119188.695 62 76.815 5.3
2004M10 121644.838 63.646 76.787 5.3
2004M11 124321.175 58.238 76.766 5.3
2004M12 126228.875 73.992 76.568 5.3
2005M01 125056.482 63.098 76.037 5.3
2005M02 125550.027 47.813 76.596 5.3
2005M03 128269.377 62.549 76.372 5.3
2005M04 127446.732 61.06 76.842 5.3
2005M05 127267.705 60.276 76.719 5.3
2005M06 127572.684 68.741 76.019 5.3
2005M07 127758.073 62.549 76.816 5.3
2005M08 130063.045 67.174 77.179 5.3
2005M09 129921.463 75.796 77.289 5.3
2005M10 130416.021 75.717 77.603 5.3
2005M11 130214.769 70.543 77.509 5.3
2005M12 131586.808 78.068 77.534 5.3
2006M01 133778.479 63.098 77.355 5.3
2006M02 137139.077 64.822 77.509 5.3
2006M03 139700.019 77.598 77.251 5.3
2006M04 143829.648 62.235 77.672 5.3
2006M05 149364.964 66.39 77.555 5.3
2006M06 148841.692 84.104 77.068 5.3
2006M07 150118.583 75.012 77.651 5.3
2006M08 154836.042 70.779 77.694 5.33
139

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2006M09 155775.169 80.733 77.626 5.33

2006M10 159746.941 78.461 77.93 5.33
2006M11 164940.352 82.144 77.93 5.33
2006M12 170924.680 82.536 78.16 5.33
2007M01 173087.881 72.895 76.904 5.33
2007M02 177326.485 68.271 77.479 5.33
2007M03 182797.074 77.598 77.429 5.33
2007M04 187122.640 75.952 78.024 5.33
2007M05 188944.324 77.441 78.537 5.33
2007M06 190390.642 75.168 78.383 5.33
2007M07 192452.890 93.667 79.957 5.33
2007M08 192457.967 81.203 80.373 5.33
2007M09 195402.250 78.304 79.962 5.33
2007M10 203112.491 81.125 81.095 5.33
2007M11 206845.845 79.792 81.716 5.33
2007M12 206237.316 79.244 81.146 5.33
2008M01 209224.911 78.931 82.002 5.38
2008M02 216466.610 75.246 82.558 5.38
2008M03 225478.798 91.393 82.631 5.38
2008M04 232246.353 71.954 83.932 5.38
2008M05 228726.627 67.017 84.451 5.38
2008M06 229914.687 76.893 84.297 5.38
2008M07 235306.232 73.131 85.215 5.38
2008M08 226644.179 71.484 85.543 5.38
2008M09 227833.881 80.89 85.36 5.38
2008M10 225732.210 71.249 86.303 5.38
2008M11 222006.169 74.463 86.245 5.38
2008M12 226771.210 68.662 85.5 5.38
2009M01 226114.062 58.629 85.506 5.38
2009M02 223881.868 66624 85.236 5.38
2009M03 227427.890 61.921 84.751 5.38
2009M04 231055.496 72.503 84.205 5.38
2009M05 238127.917 70.309 84.656 5.38
2009M06 244636.965 71.798 84.283 5.38
2009M07 246953.081 86.299 85.003 5.38
2009M08 248648.405 80.42 85.307 5.38
2009M09 254840.788 75.717 85.008 5.38
2009M10 260887.863 73.131 85.52 5.38
2009M11 265112.831 67.33 85.566 5.38
2009M12 267004.083 79.165 85.05 5.38
2010M01 268148.586 82.693 85.682 5.38
140

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2010M02 263889.322 79.715 86.048 5.38

2010M03 270272.260 94.371 86.114 5.38
2010M04 273678.729 108.089 86.9 5.38
2010M05 272334.792 111.538 87.401 5.38
2010M06 273292.931 92.177 86.566 5.38
2010M07 279985.824 94.294 87.676 5.38
2010M08 286234.300 85.985 88.08 5.38
2010M09 293873.697 95.391 88.128 5.38
2010M10 307737.755 94.764 88.524 5.38
2010M11 311217.294 95.077 88.818 5.38
2010M12 309753.502 86.142 88.953 5.38
2011M01 314965.016 103.886 90.405 5.38
2011M02 318591.989 88.513 90.338 5.38
2011M03 324482.095 113.355 90.458 5.38
2011M04 336756.800 100.57 90.774 5.38
2011M05 339723.097 94.884 91.318 5.38
2011M06 343345.979 104.508 91.102 5.38
2011M07 354947.031 99.42 92.448 5.38
2011M08 357093.970 98.259 93.114 5.38
2011M09 347680.227 102.559 92.94 5.38
2011M10 346270.597 101.024 93.921 5.38
2011M11 345009.778 92.889 93.841 5.38
2011M12 343323.298 107.837 93.876 5.38
2012M01 348500.665 93.542 94.748 5.38
2012M02 355009.653 99.328 94.49 5.38
2012M03 358248.928 109.505 95.207 5.38
2012M04 356979.936 98.626 95.717 5.38
2012M05 356091.363 100.979 95.917 5.38
2012M06 353306.477 112.583 95.924 5.38
2012M07 362586.368 101.583 96.146 5.38
2012M08 370728.526 95.469 96.744 5.38
2012M09 375947.005 98.859 97.298 5.38
2012M10 380288.388 96.022 97.1 5.38
2012M11 385829.872 95.488 97.224 5.38
2012M12 390505.244 109.574 97.936 5.38
2013M01 393851.490 93.686 98.121 5.38
2013M02 393677.112 83.928 99.106 5.38
2013M03 392471.282 105.576 98.574 5.38
2013M04 395506.058 103.702 97.112 5.38
2013M05 395694.858 103.589 97.457 5.38
2013M06 391540.850 107.342 97.656 5.38
141

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2013M07 387120.653 104.554 97.929 5.38

2013M08 389531.122 98.839 98.718 5.38
2013M09 394217.240 107.994 98.864 5.38
2013M10 400707.184 104.056 99.019 5.38
2013M11 397703.110 101.973 99.72 5.38
2013M12 394651.045 116.568 99.403 5.38
2014M01 392391.325 97.002 99.506 5.38
2014M02 394192.037 94.915 99.483 5.35
2014M03 393010.259 108.443 99.749 5.35
2014M04 395391.377 109.213 99.342 5.35
2014M05 395391.377 101.606 99.675 5.35
2014M06 393887.166 108.132 99.508 5.35
2014M07 396429.268 107.32 99.212 5.35
2014M08 401434.860 102.619 99.742 5.35
2014M09 403240.628 106.744 99.553 5.35
2014M10 401137.917 104.389 99.254 5.35
2014M11 398366.497 100.008 99.44 5.35
2014M12 392094.570 114.468 99.328 5.35
2015M01 384996.337 99.076 99.114 5.35
2015M02 379911.433 91.808 99.21 5.35
2015M03 376129.993 106.118 99.448 5.35
2015M04 385066.607 99.697 98.828 5.35
2015M05 387967.026 100.364 99.278 5.35
2015M06 381898.253 105.237 99.171 5.35
2015M07 375948.884 100.813 98.817 5.35
2015M08 366668.193 97.8 98.911 5.35
2015M09 369918.080 100.024 98.912 5.35
2015M10 372932.810 100.978 98.486 5.35
2015M11 369636.499 97.226 98.683 5.35
2015M12 369677.367 100.86 98.692 5.35
2016M01 362877.068 100.291 98.475 5.35
2016M02 370491.674 88.727 98.375 5.35
2016M03 386013.407 106.889 98.415 5.35
2016M04 395344.991 102.963 98.365 5.35
2016M05 390053.231 100.772 97.724 5.35
2016M06 395847.336 106.379 98.448 5.35
2016M07 400079.923 97.488 98.173 5.35
2016M08 404755.788 98.773 98.656 5.35
2016M09 405014.716 107.881 98.665 5.35
2016M10 402665.920 102.199 98.383 5.35
2016M11 397673.875 108.577 98.698 5.35
142

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2016M12 391557.947 123.469 98.853 5.35

2017M01 394384.463 104.309 99.025 5.35
2017M02 398815.449 97.707 99.022 5.28
2017M03 405515.837 118.852 99.063 5.28
2017M04 408016.306 109.832 98.762 5.28
2017M05 410558.025 105.776 99.097 5.28
2017M06 415326.225 121.048 98.956 5.28
2017M07 421139.929 120.197 98.726 5.28
2017M08 425032.481 119.035 99.055 5.28
2017M09 430384.689 123.645 99.035 5.28
2017M10 428851.195 117.82 98.75 5.28
2017M11 427174.609 115.186 99.322 5.28
2017M12 431065.741 120.498 99.224 5.28
2018M01 442220.448 123.436 99.034 5.28
2018M02 441505.909 102.821 99.501 5.33
2018M03 444986.460 126.763 99.299 5.33
2018M04 447260.486 121.778 98.833 5.33
2018M05 439685.559 119.534 99.449 5.33
2018M06 437049.703 130.988 99.505 5.33
2018M07 434604.402 128.218 99.359 5.33
2018M08 437721.049 122.993 99.778 5.33
2018M09 438008.972 124.24 99.753 5.33
2018M10 435350.761 123.946 99.447 5.33
2018M11 435845.650 123.052 99.61 5.33
2018M12 440022.694 122.703 99.686 5.33
2019M01 446520.280 125.39 99.387 5.25
2019M02 449406.382 106.134 99.953 5.25
2019M03 453436.905 121.667 99.972 5.25
2019M04 456450.925 121.993 99.753 5.25
2019M05 453078.287 118.054 100.325 5.25
2019M06 455754.497 122.034 100.038 5.25
2019M07 456385.840 131.173 99.587 5.25
2019M08 451664.644 116.099 100.209 5.25
2019M09 456453.082 125.422 100.147 5.25
2019M10 458988.398 127.444 99.93 5.25
2019M11 466113.257 112.047 100.254 5.25
2019M12 466696.056 121.793 100.445 5.25
143

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
SINGAPORE LOG DATA:

2000M01 11.54176 3.93695 4.303281 1.757858
2000M02 11.52326 3.750962 4.30803 1.766442
2000M03 11.51157 3.961118 4.304578 1.766442
2000M04 11.50167 3.827162 4.306036 1.766442
2000M05 11.49425 3.970028 4.302402 1.766442
2000M06 11.50695 4.0191 4.304038 1.766442
2000M07 11.49111 3.950628 4.309147 1.766442
2000M08 11.49935 4.035868 4.314403 1.757858
2000M09 11.47847 4.093711 4.314631 1.766442
2000M10 11.46675 4.081884 4.315406 1.757858
2000M11 11.48195 4.035868 4.317595 1.757858
2000M12 11.49197 4.084513 4.319286 1.757858
2001M01 11.50659 3.825462 4.322966 1.757858
2001M02 11.50991 3.878714 4.321082 1.757858
2001M03 11.49933 4.02751 4.32286 1.757858
2001M04 11.48937 3.837343 4.325602 1.757858
2001M05 11.48661 3.864009 4.32156 1.757858
2001M06 11.47627 3.842416 4.316074 1.757858
2001M07 11.45306 3.802967 4.322051 1.757858
2001M08 11.49588 3.797734 4.321467 1.757858
2001M09 11.52219 3.842416 4.320071 1.701105
2001M10 11.48981 3.850764 4.317555 1.667707
2001M11 11.50839 3.896381 4.315446 1.667707
2001M12 11.4923 3.837343 4.313373 1.667707
2002M01 11.48161 3.852443 4.311913 1.667707
2002M02 11.48584 3.819074 4.314858 1.676349
2002M03 11.50202 3.986184 4.313935 1.676349
2002M04 11.49807 3.916871 4.314992 1.676349
2002M05 11.51261 3.99198 4.318101 1.676349
2002M06 11.52022 4.012049 4.317488 1.676349
2002M07 11.53419 3.975936 4.317781 1.676349
2002M08 11.52749 3.952109 4.317088 1.676349
2002M09 11.52028 3.953625 4.315833 1.676349
2002M10 11.51582 3.96706 4.315553 1.676349
2002M11 11.53597 3.885166 4.317781 1.676349
2002M12 11.53776 4.017697 4.317728 1.676349
2003M01 11.54881 3.980336 4.320617 1.677097
2003M02 11.54997 3.730477 4.318781 1.673351
2003M03 11.54955 4.045522 4.32156 1.667707
144

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2003M04 11.54739 3.877059 4.323589 1.667707

2003M05 11.57287 3.901144 4.317221 1.667707
2003M06 11.57582 3.949107 4.314243 1.667707
2003M07 11.56995 3.910622 4.320457 1.667707
2003M08 11.57759 4.055067 4.321639 1.667707
2003M09 11.57863 4.010619 4.322688 1.667707
2003M10 11.62132 4.140942 4.322011 1.667707
2003M11 11.63153 3.964084 4.323364 1.667707
2003M12 11.64126 4.024709 4.325152 1.667707
2004M01 11.67373 4.042771 4.32732 1.667707
2004M02 11.68281 3.980336 4.338767 1.667707
2004M03 11.67729 4.050985 4.331404 1.667707
2004M04 11.70254 4.072576 4.338114 1.667707
2004M05 11.68766 4.080567 4.340514 1.667707
2004M06 11.68879 4.123337 4.332666 1.667707
2004M07 11.68913 4.076571 4.340658 1.667707
2004M08 11.68752 4.095011 4.339367 1.667707
2004M09 11.68846 4.127134 4.3414 1.667707
2004M10 11.70886 4.153336 4.341035 1.667707
2004M11 11.73062 4.064538 4.340762 1.667707
2004M12 11.74585 4.303957 4.338179 1.667707
2005M01 11.73652 4.144689 4.33122 1.667707
2005M02 11.74046 3.867298 4.338545 1.667707
2005M03 11.76189 4.13595 4.335616 1.667707
2005M04 11.75545 4.111857 4.341751 1.667707
2005M05 11.75405 4.098934 4.340149 1.667707
2005M06 11.75644 4.230346 4.330983 1.667707
2005M07 11.75789 4.13595 4.341413 1.667707
2005M08 11.77577 4.207286 4.346127 1.667707
2005M09 11.77469 4.328046 4.347552 1.667707
2005M10 11.77848 4.327003 4.351606 1.667707
2005M11 11.77694 4.256222 4.350394 1.667707
2005M12 11.78742 4.35758 4.350717 1.667707
2006M01 11.80394 4.144689 4.348405 1.667707
2006M02 11.82875 4.171645 4.350394 1.667707
2006M03 11.84725 4.351542 4.34706 1.667707
2006M04 11.87638 4.130918 4.352495 1.667707
2006M05 11.91415 4.195546 4.350987 1.667707
2006M06 11.91064 4.432054 4.344688 1.667707
2006M07 11.91918 4.317648 4.352224 1.667707
2006M08 11.95012 4.259562 4.352778 1.673351
145

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2006M09 11.95617 4.391147 4.351902 1.673351

2006M10 11.98135 4.362602 4.355811 1.673351
2006M11 12.01334 4.408474 4.355811 1.673351
2006M12 12.04898 4.413235 4.358758 1.673351
2007M01 12.06155 4.28902 4.342558 1.673351
2007M02 12.08575 4.223485 4.350007 1.673351
2007M03 12.11613 4.351542 4.349361 1.673351
2007M04 12.13952 4.330102 4.357016 1.673351
2007M05 12.14921 4.349516 4.36357 1.673351
2007M06 12.15683 4.319726 4.361607 1.673351
2007M07 12.16761 4.539746 4.381489 1.673351
2007M08 12.16763 4.396952 4.386678 1.673351
2007M09 12.18282 4.360599 4.381552 1.673351
2007M10 12.22152 4.395991 4.395621 1.673351
2007M11 12.23973 4.379423 4.40325 1.673351
2007M12 12.23678 4.372532 4.39625 1.673351
2008M01 12.25117 4.368574 4.406744 1.682688
2008M02 12.28519 4.320763 4.413501 1.682688
2008M03 12.32598 4.515169 4.414385 1.682688
2008M04 12.35555 4.276027 4.430007 1.682688
2008M05 12.34028 4.204946 4.436171 1.682688
2008M06 12.34546 4.342415 4.434346 1.682688
2008M07 12.36864 4.292252 4.445177 1.682688
2008M08 12.33114 4.269474 4.449019 1.682688
2008M09 12.33637 4.39309 4.446878 1.682688
2008M10 12.3271 4.266181 4.457864 1.682688
2008M11 12.31046 4.310302 4.457192 1.682688
2008M12 12.3317 4.229196 4.448516 1.682688
2009M01 12.32879 4.071229 4.448587 1.682688
2009M02 12.31887 11.10682 4.445424 1.682688
2009M03 12.33459 4.125859 4.439718 1.682688
2009M04 12.35041 4.283628 4.433254 1.682688
2009M05 12.38056 4.2529 4.438596 1.682688
2009M06 12.40753 4.273857 4.43418 1.682688
2009M07 12.41695 4.457818 4.442687 1.682688
2009M08 12.4238 4.387263 4.446257 1.682688
2009M09 12.44839 4.327003 4.442745 1.682688
2009M10 12.47185 4.292252 4.44875 1.682688
2009M11 12.48791 4.209606 4.449288 1.682688
2009M12 12.49502 4.371534 4.443239 1.682688
2010M01 12.4993 4.415135 4.450643 1.682688
146

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2010M02 12.48329 4.378458 4.454905 1.682688

2010M03 12.50719 4.547234 4.455672 1.682688
2010M04 12.51971 4.682955 4.464758 1.682688
2010M05 12.51479 4.714365 4.470507 1.682688
2010M06 12.5183 4.523711 4.460907 1.682688
2010M07 12.54249 4.546418 4.473648 1.682688
2010M08 12.56457 4.454173 4.478245 1.682688
2010M09 12.59091 4.557984 4.47879 1.682688
2010M10 12.637 4.55139 4.483274 1.682688
2010M11 12.64825 4.554687 4.486589 1.682688
2010M12 12.64353 4.455997 4.488108 1.682688
2011M01 12.66022 4.643294 4.5043 1.682688
2011M02 12.67167 4.483149 4.503558 1.682688
2011M03 12.68999 4.730524 4.504886 1.682688
2011M04 12.72712 4.610854 4.508373 1.682688
2011M05 12.73589 4.552655 4.514348 1.682688
2011M06 12.74649 4.649264 4.51198 1.682688
2011M07 12.77972 4.599353 4.526646 1.682688
2011M08 12.78575 4.587607 4.533825 1.682688
2011M09 12.75904 4.630438 4.531954 1.682688
2011M10 12.75498 4.615358 4.542454 1.682688
2011M11 12.75133 4.531405 4.541602 1.682688
2011M12 12.74643 4.680621 4.541975 1.682688
2012M01 12.7614 4.538411 4.551221 1.682688
2012M02 12.7799 4.598428 4.548494 1.682688
2012M03 12.78898 4.69597 4.556053 1.682688
2012M04 12.78543 4.591335 4.561396 1.682688
2012M05 12.78294 4.614913 4.563483 1.682688
2012M06 12.77509 4.723691 4.563556 1.682688
2012M07 12.80102 4.620876 4.565868 1.682688
2012M08 12.82323 4.558802 4.572068 1.682688
2012M09 12.8372 4.593695 4.577778 1.682688
2012M10 12.84869 4.564577 4.575741 1.682688
2012M11 12.86315 4.559001 4.577018 1.682688
2012M12 12.8752 4.6966 4.584314 1.682688
2013M01 12.88373 4.539949 4.586201 1.682688
2013M02 12.88329 4.429959 4.59619 1.682688
2013M03 12.88022 4.659431 4.590808 1.682688
2013M04 12.88792 4.641521 4.575865 1.682688
2013M05 12.8884 4.640431 4.579411 1.682688
2013M06 12.87785 4.67602 4.581451 1.682688
147

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2013M07 12.86649 4.649704 4.584243 1.682688

2013M08 12.8727 4.593492 4.592267 1.682688
2013M09 12.88466 4.682076 4.593745 1.682688
2013M10 12.90099 4.644929 4.595312 1.682688
2013M11 12.89346 4.624708 4.602366 1.682688
2013M12 12.88576 4.758475 4.599182 1.682688
2014M01 12.88001 4.574732 4.600218 1.682688
2014M02 12.88459 4.552982 4.599987 1.677097
2014M03 12.88159 4.686225 4.602657 1.677097
2014M04 12.88763 4.6933 4.598568 1.677097
2014M05 12.88763 4.621103 4.601915 1.677097
2014M06 12.88382 4.683353 4.600238 1.677097
2014M07 12.89025 4.675815 4.597259 1.677097
2014M08 12.9028 4.631023 4.602587 1.677097
2014M09 12.90729 4.670433 4.60069 1.677097
2014M10 12.90206 4.648124 4.597682 1.677097
2014M11 12.89513 4.60525 4.599554 1.677097
2014M12 12.87926 4.740295 4.598428 1.677097
2015M01 12.86099 4.595887 4.596271 1.677097
2015M02 12.84769 4.519699 4.597239 1.677097
2015M03 12.83769 4.664552 4.599635 1.677097
2015M04 12.86117 4.602136 4.593381 1.677097
2015M05 12.86868 4.608804 4.597924 1.677097
2015M06 12.85291 4.656215 4.596846 1.677097
2015M07 12.83721 4.613267 4.59327 1.677097
2015M08 12.81221 4.582925 4.59422 1.677097
2015M09 12.82104 4.60541 4.594231 1.677097
2015M10 12.82915 4.614903 4.589914 1.677097
2015M11 12.82028 4.577038 4.591913 1.677097
2015M12 12.82039 4.613733 4.592004 1.677097
2016M01 12.80182 4.608076 4.589803 1.677097
2016M02 12.82259 4.485564 4.588787 1.677097
2016M03 12.86363 4.671791 4.589193 1.677097
2016M04 12.88751 4.63437 4.588685 1.677097
2016M05 12.87404 4.612861 4.582147 1.677097
2016M06 12.88878 4.667008 4.589528 1.677097
2016M07 12.89942 4.579729 4.586731 1.677097
2016M08 12.91104 4.592824 4.591639 1.677097
2016M09 12.91168 4.681029 4.59173 1.677097
2016M10 12.90586 4.626922 4.588868 1.677097
2016M11 12.89339 4.68746 4.592065 1.677097
148

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2016M12 12.87789 4.81599 4.593634 1.677097

2017M01 12.88508 4.647358 4.595372 1.677097
2017M02 12.89625 4.581973 4.595342 1.663926
2017M03 12.91292 4.777879 4.595756 1.663926
2017M04 12.91906 4.698952 4.592713 1.663926
2017M05 12.92527 4.661324 4.596099 1.663926
2017M06 12.93682 4.796187 4.594675 1.663926
2017M07 12.95072 4.789132 4.592348 1.663926
2017M08 12.95992 4.779418 4.595675 1.663926
2017M09 12.97243 4.817415 4.595473 1.663926
2017M10 12.96887 4.769158 4.592591 1.663926
2017M11 12.96495 4.746548 4.598367 1.663926
2017M12 12.97402 4.791633 4.59738 1.663926
2018M01 12.99956 4.815723 4.595463 1.663926
2018M02 12.99795 4.63299 4.600168 1.673351
2018M03 13.0058 4.842319 4.598136 1.673351
2018M04 13.0109 4.8022 4.593432 1.673351
2018M05 12.99382 4.783601 4.599645 1.673351
2018M06 12.9878 4.875106 4.600208 1.673351
2018M07 12.98219 4.853732 4.59874 1.673351
2018M08 12.98934 4.812127 4.602948 1.673351
2018M09 12.98999 4.822215 4.602697 1.673351
2018M10 12.98391 4.819846 4.599625 1.673351
2018M11 12.98504 4.812607 4.601263 1.673351
2018M12 12.99458 4.809767 4.602025 1.673351
2019M01 13.00924 4.831429 4.599021 1.658228
2019M02 13.01568 4.664702 4.6047 1.658228
2019M03 13.02461 4.801288 4.60489 1.658228
2019M04 13.03124 4.803964 4.602697 1.658228
2019M05 13.02382 4.771142 4.608415 1.658228
2019M06 13.02971 4.8043 4.60555 1.658228
2019M07 13.03109 4.876517 4.601032 1.658228
2019M08 13.0207 4.754443 4.607258 1.658228
2019M09 13.03124 4.831684 4.606639 1.658228
2019M10 13.03678 4.847677 4.60447 1.658228
2019M11 13.05218 4.718918 4.607707 1.658228
2019M12 13.05343 4.802323 4.60961 1.658228
149

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
E-VIEWS RESULTS
1. PHILLIPINES
Variance Inflation Factor (VIF)
Durbin Watson (DW)
Breusch Godfrey LM
Newey-West Procedure
150

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
Jarque-Bera test
Multiple Regression Analysis
151

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
2. BANGLADESH
Durbin Watson (DW) statistic
Jarque-Bera(JB) test
152

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
3. CHINA
153

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
Breusch Godfrey LM
Newey-West prosedure
Jarque-Bera (JB) test
154

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
4. MALAYSIA
Breusch Godfrey LM
Newey-West procedure
155

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
Jarque-Bera (JB) test
156

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
5. SINGAPORE
Durbin-Watson (DW) statistic
Breusch GodfreyLM
Newey-West procedure
157

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
158

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
TURNIT IN RESULT :
159

lOMoARcPSD|19697781
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Thesis Group 4 Example Research Methodology Assignment

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Thesis Group 4 - Example research methodology assignment

Research Methodology (Universiti Teknologi MARA)

Studocu is not sponsored or endorsed by any college or university

FACULTY OF BUSINESS MANAGEMENT

BACHELOR OF BUSSINESS ADMINISTRATIVE IN FINANCE (BA242)

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MACROECONOMICS VARIABLES AND MONEY

GROUP 4 – BA242 (5A)

DR. ZETTY ZAHUREEN

NURUL ARDINI BT ZAINAL (2018441436)

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1.1 Introduction 1-3

1.2 Background of the study 4-6

1.3 Problem statements 6-8

1.4 Research questions 8

1.4.1Does economic growth have a significant relationship with money

supply in Asia countries? 8

1.5 Research objectives 8

1.6 Scope of the study 9

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CHAPTER 2 – Literature Review

2.2.1 Keynesian Theory 10

3.1.1 Methodological choices 19-21

3.2 Data and method 22

3.2.1 Data sources and descriptions 23

3.3 Approach to time-series econometrics 26

3.3.1 Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) Procedure 26-27

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CHAPTER 4 – Results and Discussions

4.2 Discussions on the findings 32

4.2.1 VIF Procedure 32

CHAPTER 5 – Conclusion and Recommendation

5.2 Conclusion of the findings 81-82

5.3 Implications of the research study 83

5.2.1 Significance to Central Bank as a policymaker 83

5.4 Limitations of the study 86-87

5.5 Recommendation for future research works 87-89

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Table 3.2.1 Data and Source 23

Table 4.2.1 Variance Inflation Factor(VIF) Procedure 32,42,51,59,69

Table 4.2.1.1 Malaysia Rerun Variance Inflation Factors 59

Table 4.2.2.1 Durbin Watson (DW) Statistic 33,43,52,60,70

Table 4.2.2.2 Breusch Godfrey LM 34,44,61,71

Table 4.2.2.3.1 Ordinary Least Square Display 34,44,62,72

Table 4.2.2.3.2 Ordinary Least Square Method Newey-West fixed 35,45,62,73

Table 4.2.3.1 Histogram Normality Test 36,46,53,64,74

Table 4.2.4 Multiple Regression Analysis 37,47,54,65,75

Table 4.2.4.3 Test of Significance 39,49,56,67,77

Table 5.2 Results of Findings for Each Country 82-83

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HDI Human Development Index

IMF International Monetary Fund

BSP Bangkok Central ng Philippines

CBN Central Bank of Nigeria

CPI Consumer Price Index

IPI Industrial Production Index

BLR Bank Lending Rate

E-views Economic Views

VIF Variance Inflation Factor

OLS Ordinary Least Square

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11. Exploratory research design: A research used to investigate a problem which is