ICT in Construction

Md. Tareq Hossain Khondoker

Assistant Professor
Department of Building Engineering and Construction Management (BECM)
Khulna University of Engineering and Technology

Course Title: Information Technology in Construction

Course Code: BECM 4203
Quantitative techniques for decision making in
construction
(Monte Carlo Simulation)

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 Simulation classification

Iconic simulation
1. Mockup of same medium but reduced scale.
2. Building/bridge models for wind tunneling.
Analog simulation
1. Analog means simulation on different medium but with
comparable effects.
2. Earthquake vibration waves simulator.

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 Simulation classification cont’d

Analytical simulation
1. Numerical input models and system logic models.
2. Variables, equations, boundary constraints, heuristic
rules…
3. Computer aid is critical.
4. Deterministic vs. Stochastic systems.
5. Monte Carlo simulation.

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 What Is Monte Carlo Simulation?

 Relies on statistical distributions and probability to describe

variables of a simulated system.

 Generates random numbers to randomly set input variables and

produce a random observation of system output.

 Simulate a model over and over to obtain solution in probabilistic

terms.

 System logic definition can be a simple equation or complicated rules

(construction operations).

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 Application Examples

 Range estimating
 PERT simulation
 Equipment breakdown/repair
 Logistics/storage planning
 Construction operations

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 Multiplicative Linear Congruential Scheme (LCS)

 Initialize Zn = Z0 (called Seed)

 For the nth iteration:

 Zn = (a × Zn-1) MOD (m)

 Rn = Zn/m

 Function (a) MOD (b) is to take the remainder of the division of a by b

 m is a modulus, set to large integer value (e.g. 216 –1)

 a is a multiplier usually set to be 75

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 Random Number Generation

MS Excel

RANDBETWEEN (L,U)

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 Example

A huge construction company possesses 15 crushing plants in its quarry

producing aggregates day and night. Long experience tells that there is a
0.20 probability that a crushing plant will break down during any given
hour. A number of fitter crews are therefore needed to repair and maintain
it during the down period. Depending on the type of failure, the following
data are available concerning the required repair time:

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 Example cont’d

One crew of fitters, working 8 hours shift, costs the

company $2,500 per shift. The quarry runs 3 shifts over
24 hours in a day.
 For any one crushing plant, one hour of loss of
production during the break down period costs $10,000.
 A Crew-Day cost ($7,500 per crew-day) vs. production
loss cost ($10,000 per hour).
 Threshold for production loss is 0.75 plant-hour.
 Over one day, one additional crew can be justified
when production loss is over 0.75 plant-hour.
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 Example Solution: Step 1

The mechanism for determining how long the repair time takes if a
crushing plant breaks down is as follows:

 A random number (%) is generated.

 If this random number is 00, or 01, or 02, …, or 79, then there is no

break down of the crushing plant.

 If the random number drawn is 80, or 81, …, or 87, then the repair time
needed by the crushing plant is 0.5 hour (see Table 1 again).

 Similarly, if the random number is 88, or 89, … , or 93, then the repair
time needed is 1.0 hour.

 If the number is 94, or 95, …, or 97, then the repair time is 1.5 hours.

 If the number is 98 or 99, then the repair time is 2 hours.

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Assign R.N. (i.e. random numbers) for repair times

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 Example Solution: Step 2

 Simulate ‘n’ hours for each crushing plant and tabulate

them. The greater the value of ‘n’, the more accurate the
solution will be.
 Let us take n = 5, say, and tabulate all the random
numbers generated. Altogether, 75 (i.e. 15 x 5) random
numbers needs to be generated.
 These numbers are totally random and should not
exhibit any form of patterns at all. They are shown in
Table (1/100).

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Random numbers generated as repair times

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 Example Solution: Step 3

 As from Step 2 we came to know that there are 10 break-downs of the

crushing plants in the 5 hours simulated, because there are 10
numbers which are equal to or greater than 80 (see Step 1).

 Therefore, in this step, we generate 10 random numbers on range

[00,59], which gives the number of minutes after which, in the given
hour, the plant breaks down.

Random numbers generated as the exact minute a crushing plant stops

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 Example Solution: Step 3 cont’d

 From Table 3, the first random number is 25. This

means that the first break-down of crushing plant
occurs at 0 hr 25 min and it takes 1.0 hour to repair,
because a random number = 92 corresponds to a repair
time of 1.0 hour (see Table 2).
 Similarly, the second break-down occurs at 0 hr 27 min
and it takes 1.0 hour to repair (random number = 89
corresponds to a repair time of 1.0 hour too).
 The third break-down occurs at 1 hr 32 min and it takes
0.5 hour to repair, and so on.

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 Example Solution: Step 4

 Draw a simulation graph as shown in Figure 1

using the data of Steps 2 and 3.
 In Figure 1, the numbers shown at the top of
each given hour represent the total number of
crushing plants experiencing break-down at the
same time. They are summarized in Table 5 in
Step 5.

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 Summary

Plant # RN Hour Start time Repair time

2 92 0-1 25 1

11 89 0-1 27 1

6 87 1-2 32 0.5

9 92 1-2 27 1

7 83 2-3 11 0.5

9 99 2-3 23 2

12 91 2-3 24 1

3 89 3-4 10 1

5 91 3-4 30 1

7 82 4-5 16 0.5

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 Simulation graph

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Example Solution: Step 5 (Calculation)

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 Example Solution: Step 6

 This last step is to determine how many number of crews of fitters are
needed. By inspecting Table 5, for one day, we need at least 3 crews
(at 9 crew-shifts) or 4 crews (at 12 crew-shifts). If 3 crews are
employed, there are 0.24 hr in a day during which period a down plant
needs waiting for a crew resource.

 Cost/day to maintain an extra crew = $ 2,500 x 3 = $ 7,500 per crew-

day.

 Cost/day for loss of production if there are only 3 crews = $ 10,000 ×

0.24 = $ 2,400

 Therefore, it is cheaper to employ 3 crews of fitters running 3 shifts

over a day. It can be concluded that 3 crews of fitters (at 3 shifts)
should be employed.

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 Note

 The time period TN, during which N crushing plants are down and
require repair and maintenance is random variable (N = 0, 1, 2, … ,15).

 As simulation output, TN are not deterministic but statistical

distributions.

 T4 = 0.24, 1.22, 0.43, 0.51, 0.68… given five different sets of random
numbers to initiate simulation.

 Conclusion should be made based on large number of simulation runs

in terms of

 –The probability of T4 being less than the threshold 0.75 hr is 80%.

 –Thus, in order to ensure cost-effectiveness, chances of hiring three

crews instead of four are 80%.
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 Note cont’d

 Likely to have two breakdown events occurring

on the same plant in two consecutive hours.
 Because breakdown time could be as long as 2
hours, overlapping could happen (find it out in
Figure).
 This could be against common sense; if the
overlapping is considerable (over 0.5 hr), the
current simulation run should be abandoned to
ensure accuracy.

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Thank You