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Estimating techniques

Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a method used to examine the
tasks in a schedule and determine a Critical Path Method variation (CPM). It
analyzes the time required to complete each task and its associated dependencies to
determine the minimum time to complete a project. It estimates the shortest possible
time each activity will take, the most likely length of time, and the longest time that
might be taken if the activity takes longer than expected.  The US Navy developed the
method in 1957 on the Polaris nuclear submarine project.

Formula: (P+4M+O)/6

 Optimistic Time (O): the minimum possible time required to accomplish

a task, assuming everything proceeds better than is normally expected.
 Pessimistic Time (P): the maximum possible time required to
accomplish a task, assuming everything goes wrong (excluding major
catastrophes).
 Most likely Time (M): the best estimate of the time required to
accomplish a task, assuming everything proceeds as normal.
Rolling wave approach

Rolling wave planning is a project management technique that involves

progressive elaboration to add detail to the Work Breakdown Structure
(WBS) on an ongoing basis. At the beginning of the project, near term
deliverables are decomposed into individual components (work packages)
and defined at the greatest level of detail. Deliverables and schedule activities
that will take place several reporting periods in the future are more broadly
defined. For example, Phases 1-2 might be broken down fully in the WBS.
Phases 3-6 might be outlined only to the level of subprojects. Then,
while schedule activities for phase 1 are underway, the detailed planning for
phase 3 would commence. As phase 2 is put in motion, planning for phase 4
would start and so forth.
Contegency:
Contingency is extra time that’s allowed in the schedule to cover unexpected
events. . These events include task switching, other work, and personal
commitments.
inherent contingency. Inherent contingency arises when you have one task
that relies on another, and unavoidable time in between the two. So, if Task A
is estimated to start on day 10 and to last for three days (until day 13), but
Task B cannot start until day 16, in effect, you can take six days to complete
Task A before it will start to affect the project.
Risk mgt:
The process for creating a Risk Management Plan is as follows: 1. Identify
potential risks. 2. Rate them by likelihood and severity. 3. Choose which
risks to plan for. 4. Make plans for dealing with those risks.