The Geopolitics of Southeast Asia

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Lecture 5 Presentation to
Southeast Asia’s Economic Integration Amid Global Turbulence
Public Policy Seminar, YSEALI Academy
Fulbright University Vietnam
Ho Chi Minh City, January 10, 2023
 Introduction
• Two-part lecture

1. The Geopolitics of Southeast Asia

Mainly inward focus on the region

2. Global Impacts on Southeast Asia

Focused on major powers and external forces
 Overview

1. South-East Asia – What’s in a Name?

2. ASEAN’s Development
3. ASEAN’s Multilateral Mechanisms
4. Current Geopolitical Issues
1. South East Asia – What’s in a Name?

Nanyang
Nanyo
[Southern Seas]
Indo-China
Süd Ost Asien
Hinter Indien
South-East Asia
Southeast Asia
 Pre-Colonial Historical Background
• Mainland
• Theravada and Mahayana Buddhism first millennium CE
• Lowland river valley kingdoms
• Uplands ethnic minorities
• Maritime
• Srivijaya (7th to the 12th century CE)
• Majapahit (1293 to circa 1527)
• Coming of Islam (7th-14th Centuries)
• China’s “tributary system” (early Ming Dynasty, 1368-1644)
• Age of Commerce (1450-1680)
 Colonial Historical Background
Two Phases
• Siam (Thailand) independent
• Iberian (16th-17th Centuries)
• Portugal – Malacca and Timor
• Spain – Philippines
• Netherlands – East Indies
• Western Forward Movement
• Britain – Burma, Malaya, Singapore, Sabah, Brunei, Sarawak
• France – Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos
Japanese Interregnum, 1941-45
 Historical Background – Independence
Two Paths
Armed Struggle
Indonesia (1945-49), Vietnam (1945-54)
Peaceful Means
Philippines (1946), Burma (1948), Cambodia
(1953), Laos (1954), Malaya (1957), Singapore
(1965), Brunei (1984)
Thailand always independent
 Southeast Asian Regionalism
• 1961 Association of Southeast Asia (ASA)
• Malaysia Philippines Thailand
• July 1963 Maphilindo
• Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia
• 1963-66 Konfrontasi (Vietnam War, Cultural Revolution)
• 1966 Asia Pacific Council (ASPAC)
• Australia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, the Republic
of Vietnam (RVN), Thailand, Republic of Korea (ROK), and Republic
of China (ROC).
 2. ASEAN’s Evolution

Regionalism promoted by elites

after Confrontation ended
Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN)
established in Bangkok, August 8, 1967
 ASEAN Development
a. The ASEAN Way
b. Decision-Making
c. Institutionalisation
d. Membership Expansion
e. Economic integration
f. Community Building
g. External Relations
 2a. The ASEAN Way
•Equality, respect for national
sovereignty and territorial integrity
•Non-interference in internal affairs
•Renunciation of force/threat of
force
•Inclusive dialogue and consultation
•Decision-making by consensus
•Pace comfortable to all
 2b. ASEAN Decision-Making

• Rotation in alphabetical order (exceptions)

• ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM) of Foreign
Ministers
• Irregular at first, now twice a year, by consensus
• Other ministerial meetings evolved over time
• Occasional Summits, Summits held annually, and now
two Summits annually (back to back)
 2c. Institutionalisation

ASEAN Secretariat Jakarta 1976 + 2019

 ASEAN Charter 2008

• Legal identity and structure

• Uphold UN Charter, international law including international
humanitarian law
• Rule of law and good governance
• Democracy and constitutional government
• Promote human rights
• Non-interference in internal affairs
• Dispute settlement mechanism (Art. 20)
ASEAN
Community ASEAN
2015 Summit

Consultative
Council

Political
Economic Socio-Cultural
Security
Council Council
Council
2d. ASEAN Enlargement

• 1984
Brunei • Oil rich
monarchy

• 1995
• communist
ASEAN Enlargement 1997-99
 2e. Economic Integration
• ASEAN Free Trade Area (1992)
• ‘Economic Miracle’
• Asian Financial Crisis 1997-98
• Chiang Mai Initiative
• ‘N – x’ decision-making formula
• N = number of countries who agree
• X = number of countries opting to wait
2f. ASEAN Community Building
Three Pillars

Socio-
Political Economic
Cultural
ASEAN Economic Community
 2g. ASEAN External Relations
Dialogue Partners, Post-Ministerial
Conference and ASEAN + 1

►Australia (1974) ►UNDP (1977)

►New Zealand (1975) ►South Korea (1991)
►EU (1977) ►India (1996)
►Japan (1977) ►China (1996)
►Canada (1977) ►Russia (1996)
►United States (1977)
 ASEAN External Relations
Sectoral and Development Partners
Sectoral Partners Development Partners
• Brazil • Chile
• Norway • France
• Pakistan • Germany
• Switzerland • Italy
• Turkey
• United Arab Emirates
 ASEAN Regional Autonomy
• Zone of Peace Freedom and Neutrality
• ZOPFAN 1971
• Treaty of Amity and Cooperation and Declaration
of ASEAN Concord
• TAC 1976
• South East Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone
Treaty
• SEANWFZ 1995
• ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific
• AOIP 2021
 ARF
ASEAN Multilateral
Mechanisms • China,
APT Japan,
Korea
ARF – ASEAN Regional Forum

APT – ASEAN Plus Three EAS

EAS – East Asia Summit
ADMM
ADMM – ASEAN Defence Plus
Ministers’ Meeting Enlarged
AMF

AMF – ASEAN Maritime Forum

 East Asia Summit
India
‘Partnership Russia Japan
without limits’ Quad

China ASEAN USA

Korea AUS

NZ
 4. Current Geopolitical Issues
• Intra-mural differences • South China Sea
among members claimants –v- non-
• Addressing development claimants
gap among members • Review of ASEAN Charter
• Mekong River sub- – voting procedures
regionalism • Relations with major
• Situation in Myanmar powers
post-coup
Intra-Mural Differences Among Members
• Philippines historical claim to Sabah
• Cambodia-Thai border dispute (2008)
• Overlapping claims in the South China Sea
• Cambodia as a ‘Chinese surrogate’
• Illegal Unreported Unregulated Fishing (IUUF)
• Timor-Leste’s application for membership
Development Gap Among Members
Developed
Brunei
Singapore
Malaysia
Thailand
Philippines

Closed Vietnam
Open

Indonesia

Cambodia

Myanmar
Laos
Developing
 Mekong Riparian States
• Upper Mekong – China and dam construction
• Mekong River Commission
• Thailand, Laos Cambodia and Vietnam
• Dam construction on tributaries and main stream
• Water flow and river ecology (fish spawning)
• Cambodia’s Tonle Sap
• Vietnam’s Mekong Delta
 Situation in Myanmar
• Military coup and internal violence
• ASEAN Five Point Consensus
• ASEAN Special Envoy
• Policy Differences
• Suspending Myanmar’s membership
• Open relations with National Unity Government
• Impose sanctions
• Provide assistance to resistance
Continuing Rohingya Refugee Crisis 2015-2023
• ,

• Myanmar took no
responsibility
• Thailand pushed refugees
back out to sea
• Refugees arrived in Malaysia
and Indonesia or were
stranded at sea
• International outcry
• May 2015 Special Meeting on
Irregular Migration
 South China Sea Claimants
• Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei
• Indonesia special case
• Unresolved overlapping claims
• Philippines-Vietnam
• Policy differences with ASEAN non-claimant states
• Special caucus within ASEAN?
• Differences over dealing with China
 ASEAN Charter Review
• Decision-making
• Consensus
• X – N formula
• Qualified majority voting
• Majority vote at working, senior official and ministerial
levels
• Summit to approve by consensus
 Relations with Major Powers
Differing Political-Security Alignments
• Aligned with the United States
• Philippines & Thailand (?) – treaty allies
• Singapore – strategic partner
• Independent/non-aligned
• Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Laos
• China leaning/dependent
• Myanmar and Cambodia
The Geopolitics of Southeast Asia
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Presentation to
Southeast Asia’s Economic Integration Amid Global Turbulence
Public Policy Seminar, YSEALI Academy
Fulbright University Vietnam
Ho Chi Minh City, January 10, 2023