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Mobile phone infrastructure development: Lessons for the development of a hydrogen infrastructure
May 2014 · International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 39(16):8185–8193

DOI:10.1016/j.ijhydene.2014.03.156
License · CC BY 3.0
Authors:
Scott Hardman Robert Steinberger-Wilckens

University of California, Davis University of Birmingham
Citations (18) References (57) Figures (12)
Abstract and Figures
The development of new infrastructure is often a consideration in the introduction of new

innovations. Currently there is some confusion around how to develop a hydrogen Discover the world's
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infrastructure to support the introduction of FCVs. Lessons can be learned from similar
technology introduction in the past and therefore this paper investigates how mobile phone
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Based on this successful infrastructural development suggestions can be made on the
development of a hydrogen infrastructure. It is suggested that a hydrogen infrastructure 135+ million
needs to be pre-developed 3–5 years before the market introduction of FCVs can publications
successfully occur. A lack of infrastructural pre-development will cause to the market 700k+ research
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introduction of FCVs to fail. projects
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i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 9 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 8 1 8 5 e8 1 9 3
Available online at www.sciencedirect.com
ScienceDirect
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/he
Mobile phone infrastructure development: Lessons

for the development of a hydrogen infrastructure
Scott Hardman*, Robert Steinberger-Wilckens 1

Centre for Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Research, Chemical Engineering, University of Birmingham,
Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
article info abstract
Article history: The development of new infrastructure is often a consideration in the introduction of ne
Received 18 January 2014 innovations. Currently there is some confusion around how to develop a hydrogen infr
Received in revised form structure to support the introduction of FCVs. Lessons can be learned from similar tec
18 March 2014 nology introduction in the past and therefore this paper investigates how mobile phon
Accepted 21 March 2014 infrastructure was developed allowing the mass-market penetration of mobile phone
Available online 18 April 2014 Based on this successful infrastructural development suggestions can be made on th
development of a hydrogen infrastructure. It is suggested that a hydrogen infrastructu
Keywords: needs to be pre-developed 3e5 years before the market introduction of FCVs can su
Hydrogen cessfully occur. A lack of infrastructural pre-development will cause to the market intr
Fuel cell duction of FCVs to fail.
Infrastructure Copyright ª 2014, The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of Hydrogen Energ
Mobile phone Publications, LLC. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http
Telecommunication creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0
stationary petrol generators, as well as the farming indust

Introduction [5]. This meant that ICE outcompeted BEVs and steam engin
vehicles precisely because infrastructure was already presen
The development of infrastructure to support new technolo- The availability of infrastructure was a compelling reason
gies and products is an integral aspect in the introduction of purchase an ICE vehicle over competitive vehicles. Th
innovations. Many innovations would be useless without their example can be useful to some new automotive technologie
associated infrastructure. A clear example of this is Fuel Cell for example, BEVs can make use of existing domestic ele
Vehicles (FCVs). There is great interest in the development of tricity supplies, albeit with lower charge rates. FCVs require
hydrogen infrastructure to support FCV market entry [1e4]. totally new refuelling infrastructure. Furthermore, hydroge
Many case studies aim at solving some of the current issues of is a commodity that is not supplied by the current transpo
infrastructural development by investigating historical cases. fuel industry but by specialised companies. These might se
Previous studies use the example of how internal combustion new business opportunities and become new players with
engine (ICE) vehicle infrastructure was developed in the late the automotive fuel industry. This means that the example
1800s and early 1900s [5,6]. However, these examples are less the development of petroleum supply networks is less helpfu
helpful to the current situation. One reason for the success of What is needed is an example of a new infrastructure bein
the ICE was due to there being an existing petroleum supply developed to support an innovation that had no prior infr
network. This network supplied petroleum for lighting and for structure available. Fortunately, a very instructive examp
* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ44 (0) 121 4145283.

E-mail address: sxh993@bham.ac.uk (S. Hardman).
1
Tel.: þ44 (0) 121 4148168.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2014.03.156
0360-3199/Copyright ª 2014, The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of Hydrogen Energy Publications, LLC. This is an open access article under th
CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
8186 i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 9 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 8 1 8 5 e8 1 9 3
90
Number of Subscriptions (per
80
70
60
100 people)
50
40
30
20
10
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Fig. 1 e Global Mobile Phone Subscriptions per 100 people [13].
exists, this being the mobile phone and its network infra- landline phones; this functionality did however come at
structure. The mobile phone was a disruptive innovation high price. But with economies of scale and technologica
heavily reliant upon infrastructure for it to gain success. FCVs improvements handset unit costs were continually reduced
share this characteristic as they are a potentially disruptive and in around 30 years the mobile phone went from high cos
innovation [7] and are heavily reliant upon infrastructure. low volume series in niche markets to occupying the whol
Understanding how mobile communication networks landscape and achieving an enormous mass-market shar
were developed will allow us to learn exactly how new infra- (see section 1.2).
structure is implemented and how the decision to heavily When the team at Motorola headed by Martin Cooper
invest can be made; the hope is that these lessons can be invented the mobile phone [9], it created a new market sector
applied to any disruptive or innovative infrastructure. The The mobile phone had clear added value. The mobile phon
results here can be used to convince stakeholders to invest in met an existing need: it became possible to instantly
hydrogen infrastructure. This paper will show that pre- communicate regardless of location, and be able to contac
development of infrastructure is vital to the successful intro- people in the event of an emergency situation. The mobil
duction of any innovations requiring totally new infrastruc- phone provided convenience greater than any other commu
ture. This is highlighted by the fact that network development nication technology did before. Land lines, phone booths an
began 5 years before the first mobile phone was sold to the pagers could not meet these needs. The cost of using a mobil
public. phone far exceeded the costs of communication via landline
but people were willing to pay due to the added convenience
Disruptive innovation One further reason the mobile developed added value wa
thanks to it becoming a status symbol [10].
The mobile phone was a disruptive innovation; this can be Mobile phones generate revenue at the point of sale, and
confirmed using the 3-point disruptive technology criteria. provide continuous revenue in the form of service charge
The criteria states that innovations are disruptive innovations throughout their use. By 2015 the global mobile phone handse
if they require new infrastructure, are produced by new market is expected to reach $340 billion [11]. The extent o
market entrants and not incumbents, and provide a greater market penetration of mobile phones is vast. Globally ther
level of service to the end users [7]. The mobile phone is are 85 phone subscriptions per 100 people. In developed
aligned well to the three criteria. Clayton Christensen, the countries like the UK 39% of people own a smart phone and
founder of disruptive innovation theory, also states that there are more phone subscriptions than inhabitants. 52% o
mobile phones are a disruptive innovation to land line tele- voice communications are now made via a mobile phone [12]
phones [8]. Mobile phones had clear added functionality over Figs. 1 and 2 show the global and UK increases in phon
140
Number of Subscriptions (per
126
112
98
100 people)
84
70
56
42
28
14
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Fig. 2 e UK Mobile Phone Subscriptions per 100 people; note that there are more subscriptions than inhabitants in the UK.
This is because many people have more than one phone, or SIM card [13].
i n t e r n a t i o n a l j o u r n a l o f h y d r o g e n e n e r g y 3 9 ( 2 0 1 4 ) 8 1 8 5 e8 1 9 3 818
subscriptions in the telecommunications sector as a measure £3,500
of the mobile phone market. In the UK it can be seen that £3,000

growth has begun to slow and the market may have almost
£2,500
reached saturation. The recent global growth trend in mobile
Phone Unit Price (£)

phone subscriptions is being maintained by emerging £2,000
economies.
£1,500
Rapid product development £1,000
£500
The first mobile phone calls were made from cars in the 1940s,
£0
these calls were made from a devices weighing around 35 kgs. 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 20
The first truly mobile phone call was made in 1973, it was done Year
using a hand held device invented by Motorola. In 1983

Fig. 4 e Phone handset price from 1983-Present [15e37].
Motorola launched its DynaTac mobile phone to the market,
this was the first commercial mobile phone. The device cost
around $4000 [14]. These phones worked off the first-
generation (1G) network. It was not until the arrival of Early introduction (0G)
second-generation GSM technology and thanks to lower
priced handsets that mobile phones really began penetrating 0G networks predated mobile phone networks and we
mass markets. The development of the mobile phone designed to support car/truck phones and mobile radio tel
occurred at a rapid pace; mobile handset weight was contin- phones. The most successful 0G network was ARP (Aut
ually reduced from close to 800 g to less than 160 g in only 20 radiopuhelin) which operated in Finland between 1971 an
years (Fig. 3). At the same time the price of handsets fell from 2000. The network managed to reach 100% populatio
over £2500 to less than £250 (Fig. 4). Costs have in recent years coverage by 1978 with only 140 base stations. The networ
begun to rise due to increasing functionality through added quickly became congested with high demand and so Nord
capabilities. It is remarkable that handsets were continually Mobile Telephone (NMT) was introduced in 1981, this was a 1
improved and at the same time cost reductions were network. Congestion of 0G networks was an issue in man
achieved. areas including North American and most of Europe. Even
tually the networks could no longer supply the high call vo
umes. Nevertheless these networks highlighted the potenti
Infrastructural investment success that a truly mobile phone and appropriate infr
structure could achieve.
Mobile phone use would not be possible without the devel-
opment of infrastructure. Consumers would not purchase a First generation (1G)
device that could not be used. As with FCVs there was a need
to make a decision to invest in infrastructure before the Prior to the introduction of the mobile phone there existed n
market entry of the product could begin. The decision to infrastructure that could properly support mobile commun
invest is not an easy one, as the economic incentives to cations and without this infrastructure the mobile phon
develop an infrastructure that currently has no customers are would have been useless. The only comparable system wa
hard to identify. Nevertheless, without the development of the 0G network mentioned above, but mobile phones did no
infrastructure any technology reliant upon it will surely fail. use these networks. For the mobile phone a pre-developmen
Mobile phone infrastructure has been continually developed phase was needed in order to develop the necessa
over the past 4 decades. An overview of the increase in
network capabilities can be seen in Fig. 5 as measured by
1000000
download rates, also know as band rates.
100000
800
10000
Band Rate (kbit/s)
640
Phone Weight (g)
1000
480
100
320
10
160
1
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 20
0
Year
1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Year
Fig. 5 e Mobile phone download band rates in Kbit/s from
Fig. 3 e Phone handset weight from 1983-Present [15e37]. 1983 to 2012 [38e40].
Citations (18) References (57)
... In such cases, the speed and degree of adoption of the new technology may well depend on the availability of the
infrastructure [19][20][21]. If so, an investment problem with chicken-egg characteristics may emerge: without sufficient
infrastructure, consumers will not adopt the new technology [22]; but without (likely) adoption, investors will not build the
infrastructure [23] . Put differently, supply and demand are interdependent. ...
... Corresponding to the concept behind the GB model, we focused in particular on demand uncertainty and its
dependence on the available supply of infrastructure. During the transition period, there is a significant challenge in
matching the scale and timing of the fueling infrastructure investment with the actual hydrogen demand [23] . Entry
commitments involve sacrificing flexibility and increasing exposure to the uncertainties of new markets. ...
... Taking 4% as the approximate proportion of the Netherlands within the HyWays project, this would correspond to 400
hydrogen cars by 2015, 20,000 cars by 2020, and a further growth to 640,000 after 2025. With respect to the number of
stations, the HyWays setup implies that about 30 stations would be built by 2015 and 800 by the end of phase III
(compared with the minimum number of hydrogen filling stations for the UK (1198) and California (2085), see [23] ). In
reality, the objectives of the HyWays scenario have not been realized so far and the project considerably lags behind the
2008 expectations. ...
Analyzing the Business Case for Hydrogen-Fuel Infrastructure Investments with Endogenous Demand in The
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... In addition, FCEV technology has been less successful in attracting political support, public familiarity and production
commitments from automakers. This has been influenced by the need for expensive refuelling infrastructure before
vehicle deployment (Hardman and Steinberger-Wilckens, 2014) , largely unanticipated technological improvements in
battery ranges and charging times for BEVs, and the success of models such as the Nissan Leaf and Tesla (Hardman et
al., 2015). While literature has devoted much attention to these barriers hampering FCEV diffusion (Saritas et al., 2019),
studies of actual strategies to overcome these have lacked. ...
... First, to reduce charging or refuelling inconveniences for early ZEV adopters, ideally, infrastructure preparation should
precede vehicle diffusion (Hardman and Steinberger-Wilckens, 2014; Leibowicz, 2018). Yet automakers and charging or
refuelling station operators are unlikely to invest in infrastructure when vehicle adoption rates are too low to generate
profits from revenue (McDowall, 2016). ...
Strategies to accelerate the production and diffusion of fuel cell electric vehicles: Experiences from California
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Gregory Trencher
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... Similar to mobile phone infrastructure roll-out, a lack of hydrogen infrastructure pre-development three to five years
prior to the market introduction of FCEVs will cause the market introduction to fail, since consumers will not purchase
FCEVs (Hardman and Steinberger-Wilckens, 2014 ). ...
... The timing of the development of infrastructure to support FCEV refuelling with hydrogen is crucial and needs to be
well in advance of consumer adoption of FCEVs to allow for knowledge development (Hardman and Steinberger-
Wilckens, 2014) , but close enough to reduce negative cash flow associated with under-utilized facilities (IEA, 2015).
The development of hydrogen infrastructure is currently lagging the infrastructure development of BEVs in SA (Creamer
Media, 2018). ...
Potential consumer perceptions of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in South Africa
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May 2019
Timothy Carmichael
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... Authors conclude that if the use of hydrogen is to be made widely available for merchant consumption, its production
costs need to be reduced to become competitive. Another barrier is a high investment costs of the new infrastructure, as
stated in [90, 91] and explained into more details in the next paragraph. ...
... One of the main infrastructure challenges is building a suitable supply chain for automotive fuel cell parts, due to the
fact that existing suppliers are usually not acquainted with the fuel cell technology or equipped to produce large amount
of units at close to zero defect rates and low costs [90]. Authors in [91] stated that implementing FCVs requires a
completely new fuelling infrastructure, as well as that currently hydrogen is supplied by specialized companies and not
by the existing transport fuel industry. The latter is however seen as an opportunity to create new businesses and a
chance for new players to enter the market. ...
The future of transportation in sustainable energy systems: Opportunities and barriers in a clean energy transition
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... Furthermore, most of the network base stations in rural communities only support second generation (2G) mobile
GSM networks, and yet urban communities, even in Zimbabwe, are already accessing fourth generation (4G) networks,
eg, LTE, with discussions about fifth generation (5G) networks underway (Hardman & Steinberger-Wilckens, 2014) . It
is further disconcerting that poor network coverage in Beitbridge Ward 15 also extends to radio connectivity. ...
Towards low‐cost community networks in rural communities: The impact of context using the case study of
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12/7/22, 12:44 AM (PDF) Mobile phone infrastructure development: Lessons for the development of a hydrogen infrastructure

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May 2014 · International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 39(16):8185–8193

Scott Hardman Robert Steinberger-Wilckens

Citations (18) References (57) Figures (12)

Abstract and Figures

The development of new infrastructure is often a consideration in the introduction of new

Figures - uploaded by Robert Steinberger-Wilckens Author content

Want to know more about how to use forward-looking

SPONSORED BY O9 SOLUTIONS, INC. Learn More

Download full-text PDF Read full-text Download citation Copy link

Content uploaded by Robert Steinberger-Wilckens Author content

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/he

Mobile phone infrastructure development: Lessons

Scott Hardman*, Robert Steinberger-Wilckens 1

article info abstract

stationary petrol generators, as well as the farming indust

* Corresponding author. Tel.: þ44 (0) 121 4145283.

Fig. 1 e Global Mobile Phone Subscriptions per 100 people [13].

Download full-text PDF Read full-text Download citation Copy link

subscriptions in the telecommunications sector as a measure £3,500

of the mobile phone market. In the UK it can be seen that £3,000

Phone Unit Price (£)

Rapid product development £1,000

using a hand held device invented by Motorola. In 1983

Download full-text PDF Read full-text Download citation Copy link

Download full-text PDF Read full-text Download citation Copy link

Citations (18) References (57)

View Show abstract

View Show abstract

Potential consumer perceptions of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in South Africa

Full-text available Thesis

View Show abstract

View Show abstract

View Show abstract

View Show abstract

View Show abstract

View Show abstract

Download full-text PDF Read full-text Download citation Copy link

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