land
Article
Evaluation of Urban Thermal Comfort and Its Relationship
with Land Use/Land Cover Change: A Case Study of Three
Urban Agglomerations, China
Yuqing Shu 1 , Kang Zou 1 , Guie Li 2, *, Qingwu Yan 2 , Siyu Zhang 1 , Wenhao Zhang 1 , Yuqing Liang 1
and Wenzhou Xu 1
Citation: Shu, Y.; Zou, K.; Li, G.; Yan,
Q.; Zhang, S.; Zhang, W.; Liang, Y.;
Xu, W. Evaluation of Urban Thermal
Comfort and Its Relationship with
Land Use/Land Cover Change: A
Case Study of Three Urban
Agglomerations, China. Land 2022,
11, 2140. https://doi.org/10.3390/
land11122140
Academic Editor: Alexandru-Ionuţ
Petrişor
Received: 28 September 2022
Accepted: 23 November 2022
Published: 27 November 2022
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral
with regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional affil-
iations.
Copyright: © 2022 by the authors.
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
This article is an open access article
distributed under the terms and
conditions of the Creative Commons
Attribution (CC BY) license (https://
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
4.0/).
Land 2022, 11, 2140. https://doi.org/10.3390/land11122140
1 School of Environment and Spatial lnformatics, China University of Mining and Technology,
Xuzhou 221000, China
2 School of Public Policy & Management, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221000, China
* Correspondence: geli@cumt.edu.cn
Abstract: With the acceleration of urbanization in China, the urban surface thermal environment
has undergone significant changes. This work aims to calculate the urban thermal comfort index
using a temperature and humidity model with the land surface temperature and relative humidity.
It also aims to explain the association between the land use/land cover change (LUCC) and urban
surface thermal environment of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) Region, the Guangdong–Hong
Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) and the Yangtze River Delta (YZD) in 2020, 2015, 2010 and 2005
using geographically weighted regression. The results reveal that (1) the three urban agglomerations
have substantial heat island intensity regions, which are clustered and zonally distributed, and
the annual average rates of the heat island area growth in the three regions are 1.01%, 1.41% and
1.09%, respectively. (2) Many uncomfortable areas exist in the three urban agglomerations, with an
exponential growth trend in summer, and the annual average proportion of the uncomfortable areas
in the three regions are 60.8%, 56.8% and 49.4%, respectively. (3) From the spatial point of view, the
high-thermal comfort index areas of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao
expand to the coast, and the high-index areas of the Yangtze River Delta expand to the inland. In
terms of time, the annual distribution of thermal comfort in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei is discrete, but the
annual distribution of thermal comfort in Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and the Yangtze River
Delta is concentrated. (4) In LUCC, the change intensity in construction land has a remarkable effect
on the change in thermal comfort. The areas where the thermal comfort index increases positively
correlate with the areas where the construction land increases. This study enriches the research on the
impact of LUCC on urban ecological performance, and thus provides the necessary scientific basis
for urban environment construction.
Keywords: urban thermal comfort index; surface urban heat island intensity; geographically weighted
regression; thermal comfort index
1. Introduction
With 68% of the world’s population expected to live in cities by 2050, rapid urbaniza-
tion has profound implications for urban climates [1,2]. In the rapid urbanization process,
given the large-scale change and expansion of the pattern of urban land use/land cover
change (LUCC), the urban thermal environment has changed significantly [3–5]. To meet
the needs of urban dwellers, more and more vegetation areas have been converted into
artificial surfaces, leading to the urban heat island (UHI) effect [6]. The UHI effect describes
the influence of urban surfaces on temperature patterns in urban areas as opposed to
the surrounding areas [7]. Combined with rising average temperatures caused by global
warming, many cities face the dual pressures of global warming and UHI [8,9]. The dete-
riorating urban thermal comfort (UTC) has caused many ecological and environmental
https://www.mdpi.com/journal/land
Land 2022, 11, 2140 2 of 16

problems, such as excessive water and energy consumption [10–12], and has also affected
the urban environment and human health [13,14]. Therefore, additional knowledge of the
influences of LUCC on the UHI and UTC provides a preliminary but practical basis for
urban development strategies and human health and welfare.
There are already many studies on urban thermal environments and their effects on a
single city. Extensive human land use activities lead to changes in the thermal properties of
the land surface (e.g., surface roughness, evapotranspiration and albedo), which leads to the
increase in the surface UHI intensity (SUHII) in urban areas [15]. The surface UHI (SUHI)
is often used to explicitly distinguish the UHIs measured using land surface temperatures
(LST) from the air temperature patterns [16]. The LST have the advantage of spatially
explicit datasets compared to single measurement points. Remote sensing data is related
to above-ground air temperatures [17], and a variety of remote sensing products are also
available in time series. Thus, temperature data measured from satellite sensors were
used to monitor LST changes and showed the SUHI effect [18–21]. As a supplementary
explanation for the SUHI and urban thermal environment, there exists a difference and an
inner linkage between the two aspects. The commonality of these two factors lies in the
surface temperature and atmospheric temperature. The difference lies in that the former
emphasizes the temperature difference between urban areas and suburban areas, while
the measurement index of the latter is related to the temperature degree, building density,
humidity, water body, green space distribution and other factors [22,23]. Since most of
the current studies on the urban spatial thermal environment, and its climate change and
environmental remediation at the global urban regional scale mainly focus on the SUHI
effect, this paper mentions both the urban spatial thermal environment and SUHI. Unlike
the SUHI, UTC is a person’s satisfaction with their thermal environment and is an indicator
that quantifies how the ordinary person “feels”, based on the environmental conditions.
Thus, the researchers have adopted the temperature and humidity index (THI) as an
indicator of UTC, which quantifies thermal comfort based on the temperature and relative
humidity data of meteorological stations [24,25]. However, these data are not widely used
because of the limited number and location of observatories and the low accuracy of the
interpolation algorithm.
The multi-time scale UTC and UHI research of urban agglomeration is frequently
mentioned. In the previous study, the influencing factors were mostly limited to mete-
orological [26,27], economic [28,29] and statistical factors [30,31]. At the same time, the
mechanism of urban thermal environment formation and urban underlying surface change
is rarely mentioned, so the relationship between the LUCC and the urban thermal environ-
ments needed to be further studied. On the other hand, most of these studies put forward
environment-oriented factors, which leads to the neglect of people’s feelings in the urban
thermal environment. To enrich the void, this study aimed to establish an urban thermal
environment indicator, oriented toward urban residents’ feelings, and assess the impact of
LUCC on the urban thermal environment across the major urban agglomerations of China
(the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region, BTH; the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay
Area, GBA; the Yangtze River Delta, YZD). In terms of methods, to describe the characteris-
tics of the UTC and urban thermal environment comprehensively, the UTC index (UTCI)
is introduced as a new indicator to measure the urban surface thermal environment in an
urban agglomeration by adopting and transforming the THI model. The spatial continuity
of LST and the spatial heterogeneity of high-temperature patches are comprehensively
considered by analyzing the regional, temporal and spatial differences of the LST, which
explain the UTC and UHI. Theoretically, based on the analysis of the urban agglomeration
scale, this study is the first to explain the reasons and ways urban LUCC impacts UTC,
which provides a strategy for planning urban sprawl and sustainable cities in urbanizing
China.
 LUCC impacts UTC, which provides a strategy for planning urban sprawl and
cities in urbanizing China.

Land 2022, 11, 2140 2. Data and Methods 3 of 16

2.1. Overview of Study Area

2. Data
Givenandthe
Methods
different scales of the urban agglomerations and single cities,
2.1. Overview of Study Area
present different spatiotemporal UTC and UHI patterns. In this study, the m
Given the different scales of the urban agglomerations and single cities, there may
agglomerations of China (BTH, GBA and YZD), which are situated in differ
present different spatiotemporal UTC and UHI patterns. In this study, the major urban
zones, were chosen
agglomerations as (BTH,
of China the study
GBA and areas (Figure
YZD), 1).situated
which are The study areas
in different are ideal s
climate
zones, were chosen as the study areas (Figure 1). The study areas
agglomeration reflects the main feature of urban development in China, anare ideal since urban
agglomeration reflects the main feature of urban development in China, and the three urban
urban agglomerations are influenced by extensive land use activities.
agglomerations are influenced by extensive land use activities.

Figure 1. The study area locations.

Figure 1. The study area locations.
The BTH is characterized by a temperate, semi-humid climate with a mean annual
temperature
The BTH(MAT) of 4–13 ◦ C and by
is characterized mean annual precipitation
a temperate, (MAP) ofclimate
semi-humid 300–800 mm.with a m
It includes Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang in Hebei Province. A northern subtropical
temperature
humid climate (MAT) of 4–13
characterizes °C and
the YZD in themean annual
southern part andprecipitation
a temperate humid (MAP)
climateof 300–
includes Beijing, Tianjin
in the counterpart, andofShijiazhuang
with a MAT 10–19 C and a in
◦ MAP Hebei Province.
of 800–2000 A northern
mm, and it covers subt
Shanghai, Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province
mid climate characterizes the YZD in the southern partand Anhui Province. The GBA is situated humid
and a temperate
◦
in the southern subtropical humid zone, with a MAP of 21–24 C and a MAT of over
the1500
counterpart,
mm, covering with
HongaKong,
MATMacaoof 10–19 °C and a Province.
and Guangdong MAP ofIn800–2000
summer, themm, and it cov
highest
hai,temperature
Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang
of the three urban Province
agglomerations canand
reachAnhui
more than Province.
40 C [32].The GBA is situ
◦

southern subtropical humid zone, with a MAP of 21–24 °Cdomestic

The three urban agglomerations account for nearly half of the gross and a product
MAT of ove
(GDP) and 29.7% of China’s total population, with approximately 5% of China’s area [33].
covering
Moreover,Hong Kong,
these urban Macao andrapid
agglomerations’ Guangdong
development Province.
and dramatic Inurbanization
summer, may the highe
ture of the three
potentially urban problems.
cause relevant agglomerations can reach more than 40 °C [32].
The three urban agglomerations account for nearly half of the gross domes
2.2. Data
(GDP) The
anddata
29.7% of China’s total population, with approximately 5% of China
used in this study comprise LUCC, LST and relative humidity (RH) data. The
Moreover, these
land use data wereurban
obtainedagglomerations’ rapid development
from the Aerospace Information andChinese
Research Institute, dramatic ur
Academy of Sciences, with a spatial
may potentially cause relevant problems. resolution of 1 km.
The LST data were derived from MODIS eight-day composite products (version 6,
MOD11A2), with a spatial resolution of 1 km. Firstly, the generalized split-window algo-
2.2.rithm
Datais used to estimate the MODIS LST from the images taken in the thermal bands 31 and
32. In addition, the acquisition of MODIS LST data is inevitably limited by atmospheric
The data used in this study comprise LUCC, LST and relative humidity
and surface conditions at observation time, since summer is also the rainy season in the
Thestudy
land useThus,
area. data wewere obtained
randomly selectedfrom theday
a specific Aerospace
in June, July,Information Research Ins
August and September
nese Academy of Sciences, with a spatial resolution of 1 km.
The LST data were derived from MODIS eight-day composite products
MOD11A2), with a spatial resolution of 1 km. Firstly, the generalized split-win
rithm is used to estimate the MODIS LST from the images taken in the therma
Land 2022, 11, 2140 4 of 16

Land 2022, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 17

for each selected year, using the maximum value composite to synthesize these selected
data in data
selected summer to obtain
in summer the maximum
to obtain the maximumtemperature
temperaturein the selected
in the years.
selected years.This
Thisapproach
can help us
approach canto fill us
help in all theindata
to fill anddata
all the reflect
andthe high
reflect temperatures
the of summer
high temperatures every year. In
of summer
this study,
every we
year. In chose
this 26we
study, June, 20 26
chose July, 21 20
June, August
July, 21and 14 September
August of 2005,of2010,
and 14 September 2005, 2015 and
2010,
2020 2015 and 2020
to obtain the to obtainsummer
annual the annual summer maximum
maximum temperature temperature
after theafter the maxi-
maximum synthesis.
mum The
synthesis.
RH data obtained from the National Earth System Science Data Center include
The RH data
the monthly mean obtained
relativefrom the National
humidity Earth System
at a spatial Science
resolution of 1Data
km.Center includecalculated
This study
the monthly mean relative humidity at a spatial resolution of 1 km. This
the mean humidity from June to September of 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 to indicate thestudy calculated
the mean humidity from June to September of 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 to indicate the
variability of humidity in the summers of the selected years.
variability of humidity in the summers of the selected years.
2.3. Methods
2.3. Methods
This study used MODIS LST products, relative humidity (RH) data sets and land use
This study used MODIS LST products, relative humidity (RH) data sets and land use
data pertaining
data pertaining to to 2020,
2020, 2015,
2015, 20102010
and and
2005 2005
in BTH,in BTH,
GBA and GBA YZDand toYZD to evaluate
evaluate the spatial the spatial
andtemporal
and temporal variations
variations of the
of the LUCC,LUCC,
SUHISUHIand UTC and in
UTC the in the agglomerations.
urban urban agglomerations.All All
thedata
the datafrom
from 2005
2005 to to 2020
2020 are are available.
available. The large
The large timeisspan
time span chosenis chosen
to studyto thestudy
change the change
overaalong
over longtime,
time, and and
thethe interval
interval of years
of five five years is sufficient
is sufficient to the
to reflect reflect
LUCC thepattern.
LUCC In pattern. In
addition,the
addition, thelarge
largetimetimespan
spanisisconducive
conducivetotoreducing
reducing thethe relative
relative error
error of of
thethe LUCC, which
LUCC,
which has a positive
has a positive significance
significance to thetoGWR
the GWR accuracy.
accuracy. BasedBased
on on
thethe large
large scale
scale of of
thethestudy area,
study area,isthis
this span thespan
mostiscomplete
the most complete and sufficient
and sufficient to reflecttothereflect the phenomena
phenomena and
and mechanisms of
mechanisms
changes in the of changes in the urban
urban thermal thermal environment
environment during theduring rapidthe rapid urbanization
urbanization in China.
in China.
The framework of this study was as follows (Figure 2): First, to obtain the SUHII using
The framework of this study was as follows (Figure 2): First, to obtain the SUHII
the LUCC and LST data. Furthermore, to calculate the UTCI using the THI model, based
using the LUCC and LST data. Furthermore, to calculate the UTCI using the THI model,
on MODIS LST and RH data. Finally, the association between the UTCI and LUCC pattern
based on MODIS LST and RH data. Finally, the association between the UTCI and LUCC
was calculated
pattern usingusing
was calculated the geographically
the geographically weighted
weightedregression (GWR)technique
regression (GWR) technique to to assess
the impacts of the LUCC on
assess the impacts of the LUCC on the UTC.the UTC.

Figure
Figure2.2.Technology
Technologyroad map.
road map.

2.3.1.Modelling
2.3.1. Modelling Surface
Surface Urban
Urban HeatHeat Island
Island UsingUsing
SUHIISUHII
Remote sensing data are frequently used for the assessment of SUHI. The classical
approach is to analyze urban/rural temperature differences. However, the differentiation
between “urban” and “rural” remains unclear and confusing. In this study, to better model
the impact of urban expansion and LUCC change in SUHII, we defined SUHII as the
Land 2022, 11, 2140 5 of 16

difference between the surface temperatures of built-up areas and green spaces. The SUHII
formula of each grid unit is as in Equation (1):

SUH I Ii = Tbui − Tgs , (1)

where SUHIIi represents the SUHII of each grid unit in the built-up area; Tbui represents the
surface temperature of the grid unit i in the built-up area; and Tgs is the average temperature
of the green space grid unit.
1 n
SUH I I = ∑ SUH I Ii , (2)
n i =1
where SUHIIi represents the SUHII of the study area and n represents the total number of
grid units in the built-up area. Following Lu’s classification standards [34], the SUHII is
divided into five categories (Table 1).

Table 1. SUHII classification standard [34].

SUHII Levels
<0 No SUHII
0–2 Low SUHII
2–4 Moderate SUHII
4–6 High SUHII
>6 Extreme SUHII

2.3.2. Modelling Urban Thermal Comfort Using UTCI

The THI reflects the heat commute between the human body and the environment by
temperature and humidity [35,36]. The formula is presented in Equation (3):

THI = 1.8t + 32 − 0.55(1 − f )(1.8t − 26), (3)

where THI is the temperature and humidity index, t is the temperature in Celsius degrees,
and f is relative humidity (%).
In the classic approach, the THI originates from the temperature and relative humidity
data from the meteorological stations. In this study, we use ta obtained from the MODIS
LST instead of t, and fa obtained from the NESSDC China Humidity Dataset instead of f, to
obtain the THI based on the remote sensing data and reanalysis data, which is the UTCI in
this study. The formula is presented in Equation (4):

UTCI = 1.8t a + 32 − 0.55(1 − f a )(1.8t a − 26), (4)

where UTCI is the urban thermal comfort index, ta is the LST obtained from the MODIS
products and f is relative humidity (%) obtained from the reanalysis data set.
According to the classification standard of the THI [37], combined with the distribution
of the UTCI in this study, the human comfort evaluation system is formulated (Table 2). The
thermal comfort level was divided into five categories, as human perception varies from
comfortable to extremely uncomfortable. Given that the research focused on the period
during summer, it also varies from cool to extremely hot.

Table 2. THI classification Standard [37].

UTCI Human Perception

<82 Very cool and very comfortable
82–87 Cool and comfortable
87–92 Hot and uncomfortable
91–97 Stuffy and uncomfortable
>97 Extremely hot and uncomfortable
 Land 2022, 11, 2140
nd 2022, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW
Figure
land use types of the three regions are different. The main types of BTH an
6 of 16
2.3.3. Calculation of Association between UTCI and LUCC Pattern
Using geographically weighted regression (GWR) to analyze the relationships between
the UTCI and LUCC patterns reveals not only the relationships between the UTCI and the
LUCC, but also considers spatial non-stationarity. The general GWR is defined as follows
in Equation (5):
yi = β 0 ( ui , vi ) + ∑ β j (ui , vi )xij + ε i , (5)
j =1
where (ui , vi ) represents the coordinates of location I; β0 and βj represent the intercept and
coefficient of the independent variables; yi represents the dependent variable (i.e., UTCI, in
this study); xij represents the jth independent variable at the ith location (i.e., the type of
LUCC in this study); and ε i represents the random error at the ith location.
3. Results
3.1. Analysis of Land Use Transfer Characteristics
From 2005 to 2020 (Figure 3), with the development of the social economy and urban-
ization, the construction land area of BTH increased by 44.26%, mainly concentrated in
Beijing, Tianjin and Shijiazhuang, extending outward. The area of construction land in GBA
increased by 39.10%, expanding outward, with Guangzhou and Shenzhen as the center.
The construction land area in the YZD increased by 29.99%, initially expanding inland in
the eastern coastal zone, and the area of construction land in the northern region increased
rapidly. The construction land area ratio of the three major urban agglomerations is increas-
ing, and the spatial distribution of the construction land is characterized by agglomeration,
which is more common in developing countries.
Figure3.
LUCC pattern
3. LUCC patternChange in study
Change inareas
studyduring 2005–2020.
areas during 2005–2020.
Affected by geographical location, climatic conditions and other factor
 Land 2022, 11, 2140 7 of 16

Affected by geographical location, climatic conditions and other factors, the main
land use types of the three regions are different. The main types of BTH and YZD are
cultivated land, and those of GBA are forest land. However, the changes in these three
regions are similar, mainly for the two types of land conversion into construction land and
the proportion decreased year by year.

3.2. Analysis of SUHI Characteristics

The spatial–temporal pattern distribution of heat islands in the three urban agglom-
erations verifies that the LST results have high accuracy through the satellite–ground
synchronous observation (Figure 4). Thus, the surface temperature of each period is ob-
tained by the same method and flow path. The SUHII shows a high heat island intensity
in the study areas, which are clustered and shredded through the standardized correction
of the surface temperature and temperature profile analysis. Moreover, with the further
development and spread of the city, these high-SUHII patches fuse and form larger SUHII
and 2022, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW
patches, further fusing. Thus, in a visual interpretation, these patches tend to expand
outwards with urbanization. The temperature difference between urban areas and sur-
rounding areas is increasing, and the range of existing temperature differences tends to
expand outwards.

Spatiotemporal
Figure 4.4.
Figure dynamics
Spatiotemporal of SUHII in
dynamics ofstudy areasininstudy
SUHII 2005–2020.
areas in 2005–2020.
From the perspective of spatial distribution, the SUHI of these three urban agglomera-
From
tions is mainlythe perspective
distributed of spatial
in the areas with the distribution,
most concentratedthe SUHI ofland:
construction these three u
(1) Through calculation, we obtain the area of the heat island region where the SUHII
erations is mainly distributed in the areas with the most concentrated const
index is greater than zero. The annual average rates of heat island area growth in the
three (1) Through
regions calculation,
are 1.01%, we obtain
1.41% and 1.09%, the area
respectively. (2) of
Thethe heatdistribution
spatial island regionof wh
index is greater
the thermal than
landscape haszero. The
changed, annual
showing theaverage ratesofofscattered-contiguous-
characteristics heat island area grow
diffusion transfer. (3) The development of functional relationships
regions are 1.01%, 1.41% and 1.09%, respectively. (2) The spatial between cities affects
distributio
mal landscape has changed, showing the characteristics of scattered-contigu
transfer. (3) The development of functional relationships between cities affe
bution of heat island intensity. With the enhancement of interurban intera
lands between cities also present a state of adhesion, showing a shape like a
 Land 2022, 11, 2140 8 of 16

the distribution of heat island intensity. With the enhancement of interurban interaction,
heat islands between cities also present a state of adhesion, showing a shape like a “hump”.

3.3. Analysis of Urban Thermal Comfort Change Characteristics

Based on the normalized and hierarchical UTCI, many plots exceed the normal index
in the three urban agglomerations in summer, and the size of the area and index has an
increasing trend. From the perspective of spatial dimension, the high-index region of BTH
urban agglomeration is mainly distributed in belt areas such as Beijing and Tianjin, and
the grade of the ecological conservation area in the northwest is generally good. The high
index areas of GBA are mainly distributed in Guangzhou City and Shenzhen and have a
trend of expansion to the Pearl River region. By comparison, the high-index areas of the
YZD are mainly distributed in the northern and eastern coastal areas of Anhui and have a
trend of inland expansion.
By dividing the UTCI value into five levels according to the human senses, the thermal
comfort level of the human body in the study areas was obtained (Figure 5). The annual
distribution of thermal comfort (Figure 5) in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is clustered, and
the discomfort zone is mainly distributed in the southern and eastern parts of the region.
nd 2022, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW For the UTCI type, the main thermal comfort type in 2010 and 2020 is “worse” (Figure 6).
The annual distribution of thermal comfort in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao was
relatively concentrated on the two sides of the Pearl River. Meanwhile, in 2005, 2010 and
2015, the UTCI types in this region were mainly “normal” types, with the average area
accounting for 37.72% of the total area. The annual distribution of thermal comfort in
urban
the YZDagglomerations revealsthe
is concentrated. Meanwhile, that BTH type
dominant faces thefour
of the highest
years isUTCI risk in t
“normal”,
and the annual average area accounted for 36.75%. The comparison
portion of thermal discomfort area or the proportion of thermal discomfo of the three urban
agglomerations reveals that BTH faces the highest UTCI risk in terms of the proportion of
thermal discomfort area or the proportion of thermal discomfort type.

Spatiotemporal
Figure 5.5.
Figure dynamics
Spatiotemporal of UTCI in study
dynamics areas in
of UTCI in2005–2020.
study areas in 2005–2020.

3.3.1. Thermal Environment and Urban Thermal Comfort

The study of thermal environment, an important factor affecting UT
 Land 2022, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 17
Land 2022, 11, 2140 9 of 16

d 2022, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW

Figure
Figure 6. Proportion of
6. Proportion of UTCI
UTCI in
in different
different urban
urban agglomerations
agglomerations during 2005–2020.

3.3.1. Thermal Environment and Urban Thermal Comfort

The study of thermal environment, an important factor affecting UTCI, and its driving
force are particularly critical for optimizing the structure of urban UTCI. Combined with
an LST analysis and the spatial distribution, the LST index and UTCI level presented a
high degree of similarity (Figures 6 and 7), which explains that the LST’s contribution to
the UTCI is positive. When other things are equal, an exorbitant surface temperature will
increase the UTCI. Combined with an SUHII analysis, the SUHI effect is affected by the
surface temperature, wind speed, building form and urban blue–green space. In some areas,
the UTCI is high, but the heat island intensity is low, showing a difference between thermal
comfort and the thermal environment. This difference reflects the different orientations
of the LST and UTCI. The UTCI is more inclined to express human sensory responses to
the thermal environment by introducing human sensory data such as humidity. However,
the SUHII focuses on local high temperatures by calculating the extreme temperature
differences
Figure 6. in the same area.
Proportion of Therefore,
UTCI in studying
different theurban
relationship between the LUCC
agglomerations and 2005–2
during
the UTCI provides a perspective on the response of human thermal comfort to urban
surface changes.
Figure 7. Spatiotemporal dynamics of LST pattern in study areas in 2005–2020.

3.3.2. Land Use Change and Urban Thermal Comfort

The GWR model was used to analyze the spatial non-stationarity relationship be-
tween the UTCI and the LUCC. The R2 and adjusted R2 are often used to assess the good-
ness of fit between the model and the data [38]. In this study, the result (Table 3) shows
that, in terms of the R2 and adjusted R2, the GWR model has better goodness of fit with
the data and more significant overall regression in the regions of YZD and BTH, with the
R2 between 0.5 and 0.7 and adjusted R2 between 0.4 and 0.6. GBA’s R2 and adjusted R2 are
lower, between 0.2 and 0.3. The AICc performs better in assessing the model’s perfor-
mance [39]. From the perspective of the AICc, the GWR model has better performance in
BTH and GBA compared with the YZD areas, with a significant difference in the AICc
values. In general, the goodness of fit can support the discussion of the relationship be-
tween the UTCI and LUCC in this paper, to a certain extent, and the performance of the
GWR model varies in different regions.

Table 3. GWR diagnostics.

Region Year Residual Squares R2 Adjusted R2 AICc Effective Number

2005 26.109 0.551 0.417 51.559 3.100
2010 11.873 0.752 0.627 47.938 4.091
BTH
2015 38.348 0.500 0.380 69.853 2.697
2020 Figure
Figure 7. Spatiotemporal dynamics
7. Spatiotemporal
37.130 of LST
0.531 dynamics pattern in study areas
0.472of LST pattern in 2005–2020.
59.217 in study2.006 areas in 2005–2020
GBA 2005 23.158 0.182 0.090 48.675 2.008

3.3.2. Land Use Change and Urban Thermal Comfort

The GWR model was used to analyze the spatial non-stationari
2 2
Land 2022, 11, 2140 10 of 16

3.3.2. Land Use Change and Urban Thermal Comfort

The GWR model was used to analyze the spatial non-stationarity relationship between
the UTCI and the LUCC. The R2 and adjusted R2 are often used to assess the goodness of fit
between the model and the data [38]. In this study, the result (Table 3) shows that, in terms
of the R2 and adjusted R2 , the GWR model has better goodness of fit with the data and
more significant overall regression in the regions of YZD and BTH, with the R2 between 0.5
and 0.7 and adjusted R2 between 0.4 and 0.6. GBA’s R2 and adjusted R2 are lower, between
0.2 and 0.3. The AICc performs better in assessing the model’s performance [39]. From
the perspective of the AICc, the GWR model has better performance in BTH and GBA
compared with the YZD areas, with a significant difference in the AICc values. In general,
the goodness of fit can support the discussion of the relationship between the UTCI and
LUCC in this paper, to a certain extent, and the performance of the GWR model varies in
different regions.

Table 3. GWR diagnostics.

Region Year Residual Squares R2 Adjusted R2 AICc Effective Number

2005 26.109 0.551 0.417 51.559 3.100
2010 11.873 0.752 0.627 47.938 4.091
BTH
2015 38.348 0.500 0.380 69.853 2.697
2020 37.130 0.531 0.472 59.217 2.006
2005 23.158 0.182 0.090 48.675 2.008
2010 21.624 0.342 0.268 47.815 2.008
GBA
2015 44.804 0.371 0.301 55.843 2.008
2020 42.886 0.395 0.328 55.197 2.008
2005 67.609 0.754 0.641 167.174 13.593
2010 95.670 0.753 0.647 179.903 13.029
YZD
2015 55.923 0.703 0.575 158.090 13.145
2020 75.582 0.801 0.699 174.642 14.762

The GWR analysis coefficient varies for land use types, geographical positions and
time (Figures 8–13). It means that different LUCC types have different correlations in
controlling the UTCI.
In the GWR results of the BTH region (Figure 8), the built-up land positively con-
tributes to the UTCI. In this study, a high UTCI in summer also means hot and uncomfort-
able. On the contrary, forest and grassland negatively contribute to UTCI, which means it
will be more comfortable there than in the built-up land. The absolute value of built-up
land is higher than that of grassland and forest, which is consistent with the result (Figure 5)
that the uncomfortable thermal area in BTH is quite large. The proportion of the UTCI of
each type of land has been analyzed in Figure 9; contrary to the forest, most built-up lands
have “worse” or the “worst” thermal comfort levels.
In the GWR results of GBA (Figure 10), the positive contribution of built-up land and
the negative contribution of grassland and forest are the same as that of BTH. However, the
absolute value of built-up land is nearly equal to grasslands and forests, consistent with
the result above (Figure 5). In 2005–2015, the “worse” and “worst” areas were less than
those of BTH in almost all types of land, but the proportion increased in 2020 (Figure 11).
In the GWR results of YZD (Figure 12), the positive contribution of built-up land is
much higher than the negative contribution of grassland and forest in certain areas. A
further analysis (Figure 13) shows that the thermal environment of YZD is not the worst.
Overall, the built-up land contributes more positively to the UTCI than other LUCC
types. Conversely, forest and grassland contribute negatively to UTCI. The contribution of
different land types varies in different geographical positions, which their surroundings
may influence.
 2020
2020 75.582
42.886 0.3950.801 0.328 0.699 55.197 174.642 2.008
2005 67.609
The GWR analysis 0.754 coefficient0.641
varies for 167.174 13.593
land use types, geograph
2010 time95.670
(Figures 8–13). 0.753
It means that 0.647 179.903
different LUCC 13.029 c
types have different
YZD
2015 55.923
Land 2022, 11, 2140 trolling the UTCI. 0.703 0.575 158.090 13.145
11 of 16
2020 75.582 0.801 0.699 174.642 14.762
The GWR analysis coefficient varies for land use types, geographical position
time (Figures 8–13). It means that different LUCC types have different correlations in
trolling the UTCI.

Figure
Figure8.8.Coefficient between
Coefficient between UTCI
UTCI and LUCC
and LUCC types intypes
BTH. in BTH.
Figure 8. Coefficient between UTCI and LUCC types in BTH.

Proportion ofof
Figure9.9.Proportion
Figure UTCI of different
UTCI LUCCLUCC
of different types intypes
BTH. in BTH.

Figure 9. Proportion of UTCI of different LUCC types in BTH.

, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW

Land 2022, 11, 2140 12 of 16

Land 2022, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12

Figure
Figure10.
10.Coefficient
Coefficient ofof
thethe
GWRGWR between
between UTCI
UTCI and andtypes
LUCC LUCC types in GBA.
in GBA.
Figure 10. Coefficient of the GWR between UTCI and LUCC typ

Figure11.
Figure Proportion ofof
11.Proportion UTCI of different
UTCI LUCCLUCC
of different types intypes
GBA. in GBA.

Figure 11. Proportion of UTCI of different LUCC types in GBA.

d 2022, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW

Land 2022, 11, 2140 13 of 16

Land 2022, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 13

Figure
Figure12.
Figure 12.Coefficient
Coefficient ofof
12. Coefficient the
the
ofGWR
GWR between
between
the GWR UTCI UTCI and
and LUCC
between LUCC
types
UTCI types
in YZD.
and in YZD.
LUCC types in YZD.

Figure13.
Figure Proportion ofof
13.Proportion UTCI of different
UTCI LUCCLUCC
of different types intypes
YZD. in YZD.

In the GWR results of the BTH region (Figure 8), the built-up land positively co
utes to the
Figure UTCI.
13. In this study,
Proportion a high
of UTCI UTCI in summer
of different also means
LUCC types in YZD.hot and uncomfor
On the contrary, forest and grassland negatively contribute to UTCI, which means i
Land 2022, 11, 2140 14 of 16

4. Discussion
China is undergoing global warming in regional areas, and the temperature increase
in China is substantially higher than the global warming level [40,41], suggesting the effects
of other factors such as urbanization. The objective of this study is to investigate the
association between the LUCC relevant to urbanization and the urban surface thermal
environment, whereas other factors affecting the urban thermal environment are not
discussed.
In the present study, the analysis of land use change shows that the rate of the built-up
area increased by approximately 30% to 45% in 2005–2020 in our study areas, and the
expansion of built-up areas mostly occurred over arable land. This increase in built-up
land can be directly linked to the rapid growth of the economy and population [42]. Many
cities in developing countries have reported that urbanization increased local warming.
In the three urban agglomerations, the LST and SUHII are generally increasing, whereas
the fluctuation of LST and SUHII locally is associated with the dynamics of increase
and decrease in vegetation. Another significant result of this study is that the UTC has
deteriorated along with the rise in LST and SUHII. In addition, the improvement effect of
forest land on thermal comfort is more significant than that of water bodies. Furthermore,
increasing water bodies in an extremely hot environment leads to increased humidity and
reduced thermal comfort.
The results obtained in this study show that the changing LUCC pattern is closely
related to the change in UTC, and the UTC is generally deteriorating. This is similar
to the previous studies [32], whereas the previous studies did not evaluate the thermal
comfort associated with LUCC, which is also the main novelty of this study. The findings
of this study suggest that the provision of green and blue spaces in urban areas is useful
in improving the urban thermal environment. However, providing blue spaces without
regard to the human body’s thermal comfort perception can be useless.
Among various climate factors, the human body’s comfort is mainly influenced by
temperature and humidity, which are directly involved in the body and the external
environment of heat and moisture exchange. However, thermal comfort is also influenced
by wind, air pressure, air oxygen and ultraviolet radiation, especially in mountainous and
plateau areas. The study area is mainly located in the plains and eastern China coastal
areas; thus, we do not consider these factors.

5. Conclusions
Based on the MODIS LST products, RH data and LUCC data, this study calculates
and analyzes the spatial distribution and temporal transformation characteristics of the
SUHI and UTC in the BTH, GHM and YRD urban agglomerations from 2005 to 2020 using
the THI model based on remote sensing data. The following conclusions were reached:
(1) By calculating the SUHII from 2005 to 2020, the three urban agglomerations have
many heat island intensity regions, mostly clustered and zonally distributed. With
the trend of the outward expansion of high-temperature areas in the urbanization
process, urbanization is the main driving factor of the SUHI effect.
(2) The calculation of the UTCI from 2005 to 2020 shows many uncomfortable areas in
the three urban agglomerations in summer, with an area and exponential growth
trend. From the spatial point of view, the high-index areas of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei,
Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao expand to the coast, and the high-index areas of
the YZD expand to the inland. In terms of time, the annual distribution of thermal
comfort in BTH is discrete, and the annual distribution of thermal comfort in GBA is
concentrated. Among the three urban agglomerations, BTH faces the highest UTCI
risk.
(3) From the spatial and temporal distribution of the SUHII, LUCC and UCTI, a high
UTCI does not mean a high SUHII, but a high UTCI will bring a high UTCI effect.
Land use change, especially the change intensity in construction land, increases the
UTCI in each urban agglomeration to varying degrees. Among them, the change
Land 2022, 11, 2140 15 of 16

intensity in construction land has a significant indigenous effect on the change in

thermal comfort. The area where the thermal comfort index increases correlated with
the area where the construction land increases.
The main limitation of this study is that it only applies to urban agglomeration in
plains, and the influence of topography on thermal comfort was not discussed. Moreover,
this study focused on summer daytime, and the change in the urban thermal environment
at other times is not mentioned. The indicators established and adopted in this study are
utilized in the research of SUHI and UTC of other urban agglomerations.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, Y.S. and K.Z.; methodology, Y.S. and K.Z.; software Y.S.,
S.Z. and W.Z.; validation K.Z.; formal analysis, Y.S., S.Z. and W.Z.; investigation, Y.S., K.Z. and
W.X.; resources, G.L. and Q.Y.; data curation, Y.S., S.Z., W.Z., Y.L., W.X. and K.Z.; writing—original
draft preparation, Y.S., K.Z., W.Z., S.Z., Y.L. and W.X.; writing—review and editing, Y.S., K.Z., W.Z.
and S.Z.; visualization, S.Z., W.Z., Y.L. and W.X.; supervision G.L. and Q.Y.; project administration,
G.L.; funding acquisition, G.L. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the
manuscript.
Funding: This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42101459);
the Third Comprehensive Scientific Investigation Project of Xinjiang Province (2022xjkk1004).
Data Availability Statement: Not Applicable.
Acknowledgments: Acknowledgement for the data support from “National Earth System Science
Data Center, National Science & Technology Infrastructure of China. (http://www.geodata.cn,
accessed on 1 September 2022)”.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

References
1. United Nations. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision. 2014. Available online: https://www.un.org/development/
desa/publications/2014-revision-world-urbanization-prospects.html (accessed on 22 May 2022).
2. United Nations. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision. 2018. Available online: https://www.un.org/en/node/89767
(accessed on 30 March 2021).
3. Kalnay, E.; Cai, M. Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate. Nature 2003, 423, 528–531. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
4. Pan, T.; Zhang, C.; Du, G. Pattern of impervious surface change and its effect on land surface temperature in urban and rural
areas. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 2017, 19, 134–142.
5. Yao, Y.; Chen, X.; Qian, J. Research progress on the thermal environment of the urban surfaces. Acta Ecol. Sin. 2018, 38, 1134–1147.
6. Li, H.; Zhou, Y.; Li, X.; Meng, L.; Wang, X.; Wu, S.; Sodoudi, S. A new method to quantify surface urban heat island intensity. Sci.
Total Environ. 2018, 624, 262–272. [CrossRef]
7. Schwarz, N.; Lautenbach, S.; Seppelt, R. Exploring indicators for quantifying surface urban heat islands of European cities with
MODIS land surface temperatures. Remote Sens. Environ. 2011, 115, 3175–3186. [CrossRef]
8. Iping, A.; Kidston-Lattari, J.; Simpson-Young, A.; Duncan, E.; McManus, P. (Re) presenting urban heat islands in Australian
cities: A study of media reporting and implications for urban heat and climate change debates. Urban Clim. 2019, 27, 420–429.
[CrossRef]
9. He, B.-J.; Wang, J.; Zhu, J.; Qi, J. Beating the urban heat: Situation, background, impacts and the way forward in China. Renew.
Sustain. Energy Rev. 2022, 161, 112350. [CrossRef]
10. Wang, Y.; Du, H.; Xu, Y.; Lu, D.; Wang, X.; Guo, Z. Temporal and spatial variation relationship and influence factors on surface
urban heat island and ozone pollution in the Yangtze River Delta, China. Sci. Total Environ. 2018, 631–632, 921–933. [CrossRef]
[PubMed]
11. Kumari, P.; Garg, V.; Kumar, R.; Kumar, K. Impact of urban heat island formation on energy consumption in Delhi. Urban Clim.
2021, 36, 100763. [CrossRef]
12. Tian, L.; Lu, J.; Li, Y.; Bu, D.; Liao, Y.; Wang, J. Temporal characteristics of urban heat island and its response to heat waves and
energy consumption in the mountainous Chongqing, China. Sustain. Cities Soc. 2021, 75, 103260. [CrossRef]
13. Arifwidodo, S.D.; Chandrasiri, O. Urban heat stress and human health in Bangkok, Thailand. Environ. Res. 2020, 185, 109398.
[CrossRef] [PubMed]
14. Patz, J.A.; Campbell-Lendrum, D.; Holloway, T.; Foley, J.A. Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature 2005, 438,
310–317. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
15. Yao, R.; Wang, L.; Huang, X.; Niu, Z.; Liu, F.; Wang, Q. Temporal trends of surface urban heat islands and associated determinants
in major Chinese cities. Sci. Total Environ. 2017, 609, 742–754. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
16. Voogt, J.A.; Oke, T.R. Thermal remote sensing of urban climates. Remote Sens. Environ. 2003, 86, 370–384. [CrossRef]
Land 2022, 11, 2140 16 of 16

17. Mostovoy, G.V.; King, R.L.; Reddy, K.R.; Kakani, V.G.; Filippova, M.G. Statistical estimation of daily maximum and minimum air
temperatures from MODIS LST data over the state of Mississippi. Gisci. Remote Sens. 2006, 43, 78–110. [CrossRef]
18. Anniballe, R.; Bonafoni, S.; Pichierri, M. Spatial and temporal trends of the surface and air heat island over Milan using MODIS
data. Remote Sens. Environ. 2014, 150, 163–171. [CrossRef]
19. De Almeida, C.R.; Teodoro, A.C.; Gonçalves, A. Study of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) Using Remote Sensing Da-ta/Techniques:
A Systematic Review. Environments 2021, 8, 105. [CrossRef]
20. Lin, Y.; Jim, C.Y.; Deng, J.S.; Wang, Z.F. Urbanization effect on spatiotemporal thermal patterns and changes in Hangzhou (China).
Build. Environ. 2018, 145, 166–176. [CrossRef]
21. Wang, K.; Li, Y.G.; Luo, Z.W.; Yin, S.; Chan, P.W. Harmonic analysis of 130-year hourly air temperature in Hong Kong: Detecting
urban warming from the perspective of annual and daily cycles. Clim. Dyn. 2018, 51, 613–625. [CrossRef]
22. Lai, D.Y.; Liu, J.J.; Wu, Z.Y.; Pei, J.J.; Qi, Y.; Zhang, H.B.; Yoshino, H. Thermal comfort diversity in Chinese urban residential
buildings across various climates. Energy Build. 2021, 231, 110632. [CrossRef]
23. Parker, J. The Leeds urban heat island and its implications for energy use and thermal comfort. Energy Build. 2021, 235, 110636.
[CrossRef]
24. Cheng, B.; Gou, Z.H.; Zhang, F.; Feng, Q.S.; Huang, Z.F. Thermal comfort in urban mountain parks in the hot summer and cold
winter climate. Sustain. Cities Soc. 2019, 51, 101756. [CrossRef]
25. Makvandi, M.; Zhou, X.L.; Li, C.C.; Deng, Q.L. A field investigation on adaptive thermal comfort in an urban environment
considering Individuals’ psychological and physiological behaviors in a cold-winter of Wuhan. Sustainability 2021, 13, 678.
[CrossRef]
26. Zheng, Y.; Yu, Y.; Tan, J. Influence of meteorological parameters on human comfort index. Meteorol. Sci. Technol. 2007, 35, 827–831.
27. Cornes, I.C.; Cook, B. Localising climate change: Heatwave responses in urban households. Disaster Prev. Manag. Int. J. 2018, 27,
159–174. [CrossRef]
28. Li, Y.; Sun, Y.; Li, J.; Gao, C. Socioeconomic drivers of urban heat island effect: Empirical evidence from major Chinese cities.
Sustain. Cities Soc. 2020, 63, 102425. [CrossRef]
29. He, B.-J.; Zhao, D.; Xiong, K.; Qi, J.; Ulpiani, G.; Pignatta, G.; Prasad, D.; Jones, P. A framework for addressing urban heat
challenges and associated adaptive behavior by the public and the issue of willingness to pay for heat resilient infrastructure in
Chongqing, China. Sustain. Cities Soc. 2021, 75, 103361. [CrossRef]
30. Yang, J.; Wang, Y.; Xue, B.; Li, Y.; Xiao, X.; Xia, J.; He, B. Contribution of urban ventilation to the thermal environment and urban
energy demand: Different climate background perspectives. Sci. Total Environ. 2021, 795, 148791. [CrossRef]
31. Yang, Q.; Huang, X.; Tang, Q. The footprint of urban heat island effect in 302 Chinese cities: Temporal trends and associated
factors. Sci. Total Environ. 2019, 655, 652–662. [CrossRef]
32. Yan, Z.; Zhou, D.; Li, Y.; Zhang, L. An integrated assessment on the warming effects of urbanization and agriculture in highly
developed urban agglomerations of China. Sci. Total Environ. 2022, 804, 150119. [CrossRef]
33. NBSC, Nationnal Bureau of Statistics of China. China Statistical Yearbook; China Statistics Press: Beijing, China, 2020. Available
online: http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2020/indexch.htm (accessed on 29 March 2022).
34. Lu, L.; Weng, Q.; Xiao, D.; Guo, H.; Li, Q.; Hui, W. Spatiotemporal variation of surface urban heat islands in relation to land cover
composition and configuration: A multi-scale case study of Xi’an, China. Remote Sens. 2020, 12, 2713. [CrossRef]
35. Aghamohammadi, N.; Fong, C.S.; Idrus, M.H.M.; Ramakreshnan, L.; Sulaiman, N.M. Environmental heat-related health
symptoms among community in a tropical city. Sci. Total Environ. 2021, 782, 146611. [CrossRef] [PubMed]
36. Ma, X.Y.; Tian, Y.; Du, M.; Hong, B.; Lin, B.L. How to design comfortable open spaces for the elderly? Implications of their thermal
perceptions in an urban park. Sci. Total Environ. 2021, 768, 144985. [CrossRef]
37. Liu, Q.C.; Wang, Z.; Xu, S.Y. Climate suitability index for city tourism in China. Resour. Sci. 2007, 29, 133–141.
38. Fotheringham, A.S.; Brunsdon, C.; Charlton, M. Geographically Weighted Regression: The Analysis of Spatially Varying Relationships;
John Wiley & Sons: Hoboken, NJ, USA, 2003.
39. Brewer, M.J.; Butler, A.; Cooksley, S.L. The relative performance of AIC, AICC and BIC in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity.
Methods Ecol. Evol. 2016, 7, 679–692. [CrossRef]
40. China Meteorological Administration Climate Change Centre. China Blue Paper of Climate Change 2019. Beijing: Science
Press 2019. Available online: http://www.cma.gov.cn/root7/auto13139/201905/P020190524559373710657.pdf (accessed on 7
September 2022).
41. Noaa. Global Climate Report—Annual 2019. National Center for Environmental Information. National Oceanic and Atomspheric
Administration. 2019. Available online: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201913 (accessed on 23 May 2022).
42. Bai, X.; Shi, P.; Liu, Y. Society: Realizing China’s urban dream. Nature 2014, 509, 158. [CrossRef]