Heather Ah San

Professor Clifford Young

Public Opinion as a Driver for Policymakers
April 20, 2022

Social insecurity:
Post-victory Bush espouses freedom, social security reform at 2005 State of the Union

In early 2005, President George W. Bush should have been riding high. He had just won reelection for his
second term as president. His first term was defined by the 9/11 attacks, a historic event for America that
saw Bush’s approval rating skyrocket as high as 92%. By 2005, while the US was in the midst of the Iraq
War, Bush saw his approval level out at about 50%. Early 2005 polls found that only 45% of the public
thought the US was going in the right direction. Was this tumble in approval a worrying trend for Bush?

His first State of the Union of his second term was the ultimate opportunity to set his agenda and see if it
stood convergent with the American public. Still glowing from his inauguration just weeks ago, President
Bush stood before Congress preaching the values of freedom, the sacredness of democracy and … the
need for social security reform?

The terrorists got nothing on our freedom!

Freedom is a key theme in Bush’s State of the Union. From his opening line praising free elections in the
Mideast to the end (actually concluding with the word “freedom”) the Bush administration clearly believes
that Americans – and the rest of the world – believe in freedom above all else.

That’s obvious by his repeated rationale for the Iraq war. “The attack on freedom in our world has
reaffirmed our confidence in freedom's power to change the world,” he says near the end of his speech.
We can’t make a timeline to leave, because that will only “embolden” the freedom-hating terrorists. That’s
how we’ll win the war in Iraq, Bush repeats; by “standing for the freedom of our Iraqi friends, and freedom
in Iraq.”

After all, freedom has made and will make America’s economy stronger. Bush starts off his speech strong
by diving into his agenda for the economy and job creation, reminding the audience that 2.3 million jobs
were added just last year. But this strong start is dampened when he rests his laurels on … you guessed
it, freedom. Among the vague non-specifics he offers for economic reform is by cutting taxes and making
the economy “more flexible.” And just when you think his speech couldn’t get more repetitious and boring,
Bush decides to hitch his agenda to …

Social security reform – the least sexy policy platform ever?

Most Important Issue (2005) Iraq Economy Social Security

AP 15% 22% 2%

Gallup 23% 12% 2%

In 2005, Americans were very worried about the war in Iraq and the state of the economy. Low on the list
of priorities? Social security reform. AP and Gallup polls show that just 2% of the American people
considered social security the issue of our time. And yet Bush dedicates the bulk of his speech
advocating for the privatization of social security reform!

Bush was decidedly not convergent with the priorities of the American public is his State of the Union
speech. He bookends his speech with two important issues, economy and war, but spends the majority
of his time trying to convince the public that social security is what they should be worried about. And yet
– a poll conducted by Gallup showed that his approval rating jumped six percentage points after his
speech. So maybe social security reform is sexy (and a good distraction from the main issues), after all.