Fault Tree Reliability Analysis of a Micro-grid
Using Monte Carlo Simulations
Xiaofang Shi, Student Member, IEEE and Ali M. Bazzi, Member, IEEE
Advanced Power Electronics and Electric Drives Laboratory (APEDL)
University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA
xiaofang.shi@uconn.edu
Abstract— In this paper, the traditional Fault Tree Analysis
(FTA) method combined with Monte Carlo simulations (MCSs) is
introduced to a real micro-gird with significant clean energy
penetration. Importance of different components in the micro-
grid is first found using the traditional FTA but cannot show a
clear illustration of the system’s reliability with respect to time.
Using the proposed fault-tree-MCS (FT-MCS) method, a
simulation program can be established with random sampling
time. In this process, the contribution of each part to the whole
system reliability can be clearly shown with varying time. A more
accurate Mean Time to Failure (MTTF) can thus be achieved
using the FT-MCS. FT-MCS is shown to combine the benefits of
fault tree component hierarchy for fault propagation, as well as
fault occurrence over time.
Keywords —Fault Tree Analysis, Micro-grid, Monte Carlo
Simulation, Reliability
I. INTRODUCTION
F AULT Tree Analysis (FTA) is a top-down deductive failure
analysis approach commonly used to determine root
causes of failures where failures and their modes are
connected with logic gates and binary numbers [1]. It is
widely used for system reliability modeling and analysis.
Traditional FTA uses an analytical approach that is fast and
computationally efficient. For example, the structure
importance coefficient which is the main reliability metric in
FTA, can be calculated based on cut sets of the fault tree.
Other metrics such as the failure probability of different paths
in the tree can be determined based on failure probability
distributions or failure rates taken from the literature. Main
reliability analysis methods in FTA include direct calculation
of structure importance coefficients [2, 3] and fuzzy number
fault trees [4-6]. A structure importance coefficient is the
degree of importance of an event and relates to the
component’s location and importance in the physical system,
not to the component’s failure probability. If failure rates or
failure probabilities of components are known, then the whole
system reliability can be calculated and this is the simplest
direct calculation method.
In a complex system, applying the traditional FTA becomes
more challenging with a large number of basic components
and logic gates. The MCS method is thus a powerful
simulation tool to evaluate the reliability of a system by
generating random values of uncertain variables and scanning
The work presented in this paper was partially supported by Pareto Energy.
978-1-4799-7949-3/15/$31.00 ©2015 IEEE
the fault tree thousands of times to get more accurate results.
While MCS is computationally intensive, it can accurately
predict fault propagation in a fault tree and thus evaluate a
system’s reliability.
In this paper, this method is introduced and applied to a
micro-grid with significant clean energy penetration. The
MATLAB simulation results produce approximate importance
degrees and reliability functions for each major subsystem in
the micro-grid, as well as the overall micro-grid. The paper
proceeds as follows. Section II introduces the micro-grid used
for the case study where both FTA and FT-MCS are applied.
FTA for this micro-grid is presented in Section III, and FT-
MCS is illustrated in Section IV. Simulation results and
conclusions are shown in Sections V and VI, respectively.
II. MICRO-GRID FOR CASE STUDY
Micro-grids are becoming of more interest worldwide to
achieve reliable electrical energy infrastructure during natural
hazards and catastrophic situations due to their ability to
operate in either grid-connected or islanded modes. They
typically include distributed generation resources that could
provide heat and electricity. The micro-grid system under
study to illustrate FTA and FT-MCS as applied to micro-grids
consists of two photovoltaic (PV) arrays each rated at 3.3 kW,
one phosphoric acid fuel cell (FC) rated up to 400 kW, two
diesel generators (DG) each rated at 150 kW, three buildings
with variable loads, interconnecting power electronic
converters and transformers, and a point of common coupling
(PCC) between the micro-grid and utility as shown in Fig.1.
An important note is that in this paper, all the devices are
assumed to be of equal operational value to the overall system.
Power Transformer
Electronics PCC
Power
Electronics
Power
Electronics
Power Transformer
Electronics
Power
Electronics
Fig.1 Micro-grid being analyzed for reliability
1
 III. TRADITIONAL FAULT TREE ANALYSIS where Kh is the cut-set, Nh is the number of basic events in the
The fault tree of the micro-grid in Fig.1 is shown in Fig.2, cut-set which includes the basic event i; and Xi ∈ Kh is the
with basic events m1 to m23 shown in Table I, intermediate basic event i which belongs to the cut-set Kh. The structure
importance values of Fig. 2 are calculated as I(1),…, I(23). It
events G1-G10, top event T, in addition to “AND” and “OR”
can be seen that PCC is the most critical component in the
logic gates. The FTA reliability objective is to support a
system with the highest importance value. So the best way to
critical load of 3.3 kW, but other objectives can be used and
improve the system is by improving dependability of the PCC
may result in other fault trees. More basic events are shown in when considering being grid connected as the ultimate goal,
Fig. 2 such as individual power electronic converters and but changing that goal changes the tree structure. The PCC can
breakers. For the PV system, the power electronics block also be disconnected due to grid-side faults and ensuring that
contains a DC/DC converter, a DC/AC inverter, and breaker the main grid has less falls that may trip the PCC enhances the
which are in series with PV panel. Thus, the intermediate micro-grid’s reliability to support the critical load. While
event for PV system failure G1 has an “OR” gate combining evaluating the components’ importance values can be found
m1, m2, m3, and m4. PV system failure G1 and G2 events are in and can be a guide to improve the micro-grid’s reliability, the
parallel with the FC system failure G3 in addition to the local lifetime of individual components is not considered in this
loads m5 and m10. We assume that failure of these local loads, analysis.
as well as both PV arrays and the FC is necessary to achieve a I (9) = I (8) = I (7) = I (6) = I (4) = I (3) = I (2) = I (1) =1− (1−
1 20 1
) (1− 9−1 )80 = 0.4664
failed subsystem G6. This assumption is to lump clean energy 27−1 2
1 80 1
generation on one side of the fault tree while diesel generators I (10) = I (5) =1− (1− ) (1− 9−1 )320 = 0.9189
27−1 2
are used as a back-up. All failure modes are shown in Table I. 1 1
I (15) = I (14) = I (13) = I (12) = I (11) =1−(1− 7−1 )16 (1− 9−1 )64 = 0.3950
Microgrid 2 2
1 1
fail T
I (16) =1− (1− 5−1 )4(1− 9−1 )320 = 0.7792
2 2
AND

1 1
I (20) = I (19) = I (18) = I (17) =1− (1− 5−1 )2 (1− 9−1 )160 = 0.5301
Subsystem 5
m23 2 2
failure G10 1 1
I (21) =1− (1− 3−1 )(1− 5−1 )4 = 0.4206
AND

2 2
1 1
Subsystem 3 Subsystem 4 I (22) =1− (1− 3−1 )(1− 7−1 )80 = 0.7872
failure G8 failure G9 2 2
1 1 1 1
I (23) =1− (1− 3−1 )(1− 5−1 )4(1− 7−1 )80 (1− 9−1 )320 = 0.9530
OR
OR

2 2 2 2
Subsystem 1 Subsystem2
m21 failure G7 m22
failure G6
IV. MONTE CARLO ALGORITHM AND APPLICATION TO FTA
AND
AND

MCS uses statistics to mathematically model a system

PV System
failure G1 m5
PV System
failure G2 m10
FC System
failure G3 m16
DG System DG System
failure G4 failure G5 process in real life and estimate the reliability. To apply the
MCS to the FTA [9-11], the Monte Carlo random sampling is
OR
OR
OR

OR

OR

applied in MATLAB through a random numberȘij between 0

m1 m2 m3 m4 m6 m7 m8 m9 m11 m12 m13 m14 m15 m17 m18 m19 m20 and 1 to obtain the failure time of each basic component.
Fig.2 Micro-grid fault tree Assuming F is the failure distribution function of the
components, so during the jth cycle, the occurrence time of
Table I. Basic events in the micro-grid event i is tij=F-1(Șij). The type of failure distribution function
Number Failure Number Failure used in the simulation is exponential and the failure rates
m1 PV panel m13 DC/AC shown in Table II are estimated from datasheets of actual
m2 DC/DC m14 Start Generator components and the literature [12-19]. In the simulations, the
m3 DC/AC m15 Breaker failure rates of loads are assumed to be 2.2831x10-6
m4 Breaker m16 Load3 failures/hour or once in 50 years. Since it is difficult to get
m5 Load1 m17 Generator exact failure rates of all the components in a real system,
m6 PV panel m18 Breaker warranty information is also used to estimate some failure
m7 DC/DC m19 Generator rates.
m8 DC/AC m20 Breaker Table II. Failure rates used to estimate the micro-grid MTTF
m9 Breaker m21 Transmission Component Failure rate Component Failure
m10 Load2 m22 Transmission (failures/hour (failures/hour
m11 Fuel cell m23 PCC e-6) e-6)
m12 DC/DC PV Panel 4.5662 Diesel 11.4155
[12][14] Generator [15][17] [18]
The traditional structure importance coefficient [7, 8] Iĭ(i) DC/DC 14.2694 [13] Start 11.4155
is calculated as, Generator [17] [18]
1 DC/AC 14.2694 [13] Transmission 2.2831
I Φ ( i ) = 1 − Π (1 − N h −1
) (1) line [19]
X i∈K h 2 Breaker 2.2831 [13] PCC 2.3831 [13]
Fuel cell 14.2694 [16] Loads 2.2831

2
 FT-MCS Algorithm
(1) Initialize the maximum simulation time Tmax of the
system, simulation interval ǻt, failure distribution of
each component F1(t), F2(t),…, Fn(t), state function (0
or 1) of each component x1(t), x2(t),…, xn(t), simulation
cycles Wˈj=1ˈtop event function
ϕ (t ) = φ ( x1 (t ), x2 (t ),..., xn (t ))
(2) While(j”W)
(3) Using Monte-Carlo method to obtain the occurrence
time samples of each basic component t1j, t2j,…,tnj,
tij=F-1(Șij) here tij is the failure occurrence time of the
number i basic component. Șij is the random number
acquired during the jth sample of event i
(4) Arrange the failure times from small to big
tf1<tf2<…<tfk<…tfn
(5) For k=1 to n
(6) If tfk<Tmax
(7) x1(tfk)=x2(tfk)=…=xk(tfk)=1,
xk+1(tfk)=xk+2(tfk)=…=xn(tfk)=0,ˈcalculate the top event
ϕ k (t fk ) = φ ( x1 (t fk ), x2 (t fk ),..., xn (t fk ))
(8) If ϕ k (t fk ) = 1
(9) Record the failure time tfk, the components which lead to
system failure, and the system failure probability
distribution
(10) Else k=k+1
(11) End if
(12) Else tfk=Tmax, record the failure time tfk ˈ the
components which lead to system failure and system
failure probability distribution
(13) End for
(14) Calculate MTTFˈsystem reliability, and importance of
the basic components
(15) End while
In the jth cycle, the sampling time for all n components
(t1j,t2j… tnj) are sorted from the smallest to the largest
(tf1,tf2…tfn) and the corresponding basic event order is
Z1,Z2…Zn. First, only Z1 is set to fail then the top event is
tested. If it survives, the simulation should continue testing the
next basic component Z2 until the top event fails at tfk. This tfk
is the time to failure of the jth cycle. Another important step is
recording the failure times of each component by using the
time interval method. Tmax is the maximum simulation time, it
is divided into intervals and the numbers of times during
3
which the system failed due to each component are recorded
during each interval. This step can give an importance degree
of each component based on the number of times it failed.
Detailed simulation steps are shown in the FT-MCS algorithm
shown on the left.
In a fault tree, the “AND” gate structure function should be
b
ϕ (t ) = Π xi , since the top event after an AND gate is 1 (i.e.
i =a
ϕ (t ) = 1 ) only if all bottom events have occurred (xi=1). The
d
“OR” gate structure function should be ϕ (t ) = Σ xi , since when
i =c
only one bottom event occurs, the top event occurs. Below is
the FT-MCS algorithm as applied in MATLAB.
V. SIMULATION RESULTS
The PV, FC, and DG subsystems are found to have the
reliability distributions shown in Fig. 3. The curves in Fig. 3
clearly show how the system reliability changes with time and
this eliminates the drawbacks of the traditional fault tree
method. In Fig. 3 (a), we can see that the reliability of the PV
subsystem decreases to being 20% reliable after around 5 year
operation. Because of the difference of the components’
lifetime, different Tmax values in simulations are assumed and
are shown as the maximum values on the time axes which can
be found in Fig. 3. Fig. 4 (a), (b), and (c) show the
components’ importance degree in each subsystem. From
these results we can determine which components are the most
critical in the subsystems and the overall system. To improve a
subsystem’s or system’s reliability, the direct way is to
improve the reliability of critical components. Fig. 5 gives the
overall micro-grid system reliability function and importance
degree of all the components. In simulations, N=500000 and
based on the components’ failure rates used, the system MTTF
is found to be 58.3539 years. Note that this excludes grid-side
faults which can be translated into a significantly higher
failure rate of the PCC.
Using the MCS method, MTTF or failure rate values of an
overall micro-grid can be approximated as a micro-grid is
being designing, and this approximation is based on the micro-
grid’s component hierarchy. The micro-grid’s subsystems,
failure rates, and reliability objectives may lead to different
final results, but the FTA and FT-MCS can be used for
sensitivity analysis and rough reliability models.
1
PV system reliability
0.8
R eliability
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2
Time (hour) 5
x 10
Fig.3 (a) PV system reliabiltiy funciton
 FC system reliability Importance degree of the basic componments
1 1

Component Importance
0.8
0.8

0.6
0.6
Reliability

0.4

0.4
0.2

0.2 0
Breaker Generator
Fig.4 (c) DG system importance degree of basic components
0
0 2.5 5 7.5 10 12.5 15
Time (hour) 4 Microgrid system reliability
x 10
1
Fig.3 (b) FC system reliabiltiy funciton

DG system reliability 0.8

1

Reliability
0.8 0.6
Reliability

0.6 0.4

0.4
0.2

0.2
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Time (hour) 6
0 x 10
0 1 2 3
Time (hour)
4 5
5
6 Fig.5 (a) Microgrid system reliability
x 10
Fig.3 (c) DG system reliabiltiy funciton
Importance degree of the basic components
0.7

Importance degree of the basic componments

0.5
Component Importance

0.6
Component Importance

0.4 0.5

0.4
0.3

0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1

0
PVpanel DC/DC DC/AC Breaker 0
Fig.4 (a) PV system importance degree of basic components PV DC/DC DC/AC Breaker FC DG LoadTransmissionPCCStart Generator

Fig.5 (b) Microgrid system impotance degree of components

Importance degree of the basic components
0.3 VI. CONCLUSIONS
An FTA and FT-MCS approach to model and analyze the
Component Importance

0.25

0.2 reliability of a micro-grid is presented. Simulation results

reflect how the system reliability changes with time and
0.15
determine which are the most critical components in the
0.1 micro-grid. Example failure rates from the literature,
0.05 datasheets, and warranty information, are used to estimate a
micro-grid’s MTTF using a combination of MCS and FTA.
0
DC/DC DC/AC Breaker Fuel cell Start G This reliability modeling method can also be applied to other
Fig.4 (b) FC system importance degree of basic components larger power and energy systems for lifetime estimation and to
enhance the system’s reliability at the design stage.

REFERENCES
[1] G. O. Young, “Synthetic structure of industrial plastics (Book style with
paper title and editor),” in Plastics, 2nd ed. vol. 3, J. Peters, Ed.
New York: McGraw-Hill, 1964, pp. 15–64.

4
[2] H. Yilang, Y. Xiaoli, and H. Chao, “Analysis of Liquid Ammonia
Leakage Accidents based on Safety System Engineering Theory Huang
Yilang,” vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 220–226, 2014.
[3] C. Wang and Z. Wang, “Design and Implementation of Safety Expert
Information Management System of Coal Mine Based on Fault Tree,” J.
Softw., vol. 5, no. 10, pp. 1114–1120, Oct. 2010.
[4] S. S. Agarwal and M. L. Kansal, “Fuzzy fault tree analysis of a power
transformer,” 2012 Int. Conf. Qual. Reliab. Risk, Maintenance, Saf.
Eng., pp. 1000–1004, Jun. 2012.
[5] S. K. Tyagi, “Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis for Fault Diagnosis of Cannula
Fault in Power Transformer,” Appl. Math., vol. 02, no. 11, pp. 1346–
1355, 2011.
[6] M. Kansal and S. Agarwal, “Fuzzy based transformer failure analysis
under uncertainty,” Optimization, Reliability, and Information
Technology, pp. 1–5, 2014.
[7] Z. Li, Y. Yuan, and B. Wu, “Reliability Evaluation of Flood Releasing
Structures Power Supply of Hydroelectric Power Station by Fault Tree
Analysis,” 2010 Asia-Pacific Power Energy Eng. Conf., pp. 1–5, 2010.
[8] Y. Hong, W. Hou-xiang, H. Ruo-fei, and L. Juan, “Application of Fault
Tree in Software Safety Analysis,” 2009 Int. Forum Comput. Sci. Appl.,
pp. 207–208, 2009.
[9] S. A. Zonouz, “A Fuzzy-Monte Carlo Simulation Approach For Fault
Tree Analysis,” vol. 00, no. C, pp. 428–433, 2006.
[10] D. Alexander, “Application of Monte Carlo simulations to system
reliability analysis,” Proc. 20th Int. International Pump Symposium,
2003.
[11] Z. Zhongyuan and Y. Bin, “Research on the inspection period of non-
attended power substation by the Monte-Carlo method,” 2009 Asia-
Pacific Conf. Comput. Intell. Ind. Appl., pp. 292–295, Nov. 2009.
[12] M. Vázquez and I. ReyIStolle, “Photovoltaic module reliability model
based on field degradation studies,” Prog. Photovoltaics Research and
Applications, no. March, pp. 419–433, 2008.
[13] "Military Handbook Reliability Prediction of Electronics Equipment,"
MIL-HDBK-217F, Department of Defense, 1995.
[14] M. Vázquez and I. ReyIStolle, “Photovoltaic module reliability model
based on field degradation studies,” Prog. Photovoltaics Research and
Applications, no. March, pp. 419–433, 2008.
[15] T. Khatib, a. Mohamed, K. Sopian, and M. Mahmoud, “Optimal sizing
of building integrated hybrid PV/diesel generator system for zero load
rejection for Malaysia,” Energy Build., vol. 43, no. 12, pp. 3430–3435,
Dec. 2011.
[16] Available at: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/54297.pdf
[17] Available at:http://www.maintenancetechnology.com/2012/03/powered-
with-preventive-maintenance-longer-standby-generator-life/
[18] Available at: http://akvopedia.org/wiki/Diesel_generator_pump
[19] “Power transformer lifetime modeling,” Proc. IEEE 2012 Progn. Syst.
Heal. Manag. Conf. (PHM-2012 Beijing), pp. 1–7, May 2012.