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Dhaka needs Climate-smart

Policies to Reduce Waterlogging in
a Changing Climate
December 1, 2015

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Sabujbag, Dhaka during 1998 flood

Photo: M. A. Taher
Story Highlights
City dwellers suffer from recurring floods and waterlogging in Dhaka.

Climate change is likely to worsen flooding in Dhaka.

Dhaka needs to invest in infrastructure in addition to what is already proposed in the

government’s plans to be better prepared for flood emergencies.

Dhaka - a hotspot for Urban Flooding

Bangladesh’s capital Dhaka suffers floods and waterlogging almost every monsoon. With each
intense rainfall that batters the city, lives of the residents, especially the slum dwellers are
disrupted. In recent years, rapid indiscriminate urbanization and the gradual filling up of low lying
flood plains, rivers and canals has further worsened the problem.

Climate change may aggravate waterlogging

The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, predicts longer
monsoon and more erratic rainfall over the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin. With frequent
and intense rainfall, climate change alongside other non-climatic factors such as increase in
population density, unplanned urbanization and lack of public utilities and services is likely to
further aggravate waterlogging.

Enhancing disaster resilience and preparing for climate-related risks is a daunting task

Dhaka needs climate-smart policies and investments to improve its resilience to intense rainfall
and to prepare for climate change. Policy makers need a better understanding of adaptation costs
and the potential damages resulting from climate change to formulate effective adaptation
policies. A new World Bank book ‘Urban Flooding of Greater Dhaka in a Changing Climate: Building
Local Resilience to Disaster Risk’ and a new report ‘Climate and Disaster Resilience of Greater Dhaka
Area: A Micro Level Analysis’ will help policy makers prioritize interventions to cope with urban
flooding and climate change.

Dhaka’s infrastructure and facilities vary significantly in regards to resilience to floods and
waterlogging. The study assessed the cities local preparedness to urban flooding at ward level
measuring Climate Disaster Resilience Index (CDRI). It conducted hydrological modeling to
estimate depth and duration of waterlogging from intense rainfall events despite of climate
change and developed a list of options with cost estimates for each area to mitigate inundation. It
was estimated that damage from urban flooding can be avoided if the recommended investments
are made. 

The study addressed the issue from both current and future climate perspectives. Dhaka
experienced 341mm rainfall in 24 hours in September 2004; and this historic intense rainfall was
taken as the current climate baseline in the analysis. For the future, the study considered a 16
percent increase in extreme rainfall in a changing climate by 2050.

How well is Greater Dhaka prepared?

The overall CDRI for Greater Dhaka is 2.35 in a five-point scale, indicating a modest level of
resilience. However, the CDRI of DND and Kallyanpur area fall below the city average. Dhaka can
enhance disaster resilience by improving governance, implementing the Crisis Management
Framework, and mainstreaming disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

Climate-smart policies and higher investment needed

Even without climate change, increased population density will make Dhaka more vulnerable to
floods and waterlogging. The study estimates if an intense rainfall, like the rainfall of September
2004 (341mm in 24 hours), occurs in 2050, then Dhaka will need Taka 270 crores (Taka 2.7 billion)
investment in storm water drainage pumps, drainage pipe clearing etc. to reduce inundation
depth to 4-8 inches in every neighborhood within twelve hours. This investment will be necessary
in addition to the improvements in the drainage infrastructure already planned and proposed in
RAJUK’s Detailed Area Plan, Sewerage Master Plan of Dhaka WASA and Narayanganj City
Corporation’s Concept Vision Plan. The Dhaka WASA’s Strom Water Drainage Maser Plan alone
proposes an investment of Taka 16,000 crore.

Climate change will further increase vulnerability of Dhaka to flooding and waterlogging. The study
calculates an incremental cost of adaptation for Dhaka to climate change by 2050 is about Taka
130 crores.

How important is further investments in the storm drainage infrastructure?

Even without climate change, likely damage from waterlogging in Dhaka by 2050 is Taka 11,000
crores. In a changing climate with more intense rainfalls, the loss will be Taka 139,000 crores
between 2014 and 2050. These damages can be reduced significantly to Taka 3,700 crores, if Taka
270 crores investment is made. The amount Taka 270 crores is equivalent to only 0.35 percent of
the government’s annual development budget expenditure for 2014-2015.

The Way forward

Dhaka is still not prepared for an intense rainfall event similar to that of September 2004. The city
authorities can address the existing deficits in infrastructure by dealing with historic intense
rainfall events. Closing the gap in infrastructure to meet historic climate-related risks will provide a
foundation to build additional measures to mitigate climate risks in Dhaka. Mainstreaming
disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptations in planning will help the city become a
vibrant growth center.

The study is funded by the Bangladesh Climate Change Resilience Fund (BCCRF), a multi-donor
trust fund, administered by the World Bank.
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