Subject: 6th Grade - Social Studies – Second Term

Year: 2022-2023
Teacher: Cristian Bautista

A stormy future edited by Bryony Cottam

As the Earth’s climate warms, Northern Europe A wind turbine damaged by fire after a
could be set to see a significant rise in lightning lightning strike.
strikes. e

There’s a growing body of evidence that climate change is influencing severe weather events. A
number of studies conclude that storms will become more frequent or intense. One study of
lightning in the US suggests that for every degree of rise in global average air temperature we
could see a 12 per cent increase in lightning strikes.

It might seem obvious for lightning to increase as storms become more common; in reality, it’s
not so simple. ‘What we’re seeing is contrasting stories across Europe,’ says Abdullah Kahraman,
lead author of a new study that uses the latest Met Office climate simulations to forecast what
these future changes might mean for severe storms. The results present a picture of changing
weather patterns across the continent: more lightning in Northern Europe and over mountainous
regions such as the Alps, but less lightning over Central Europe.

The physical processes behind lightning are complex. Thunderstorms, Kahraman explains, need
three ingredients: moisture, instability (caused by warm, moist air near the Earth’s surface and
cold dry air above), and lift (warmer, less dense air rising). But it’s the microphysical processes
within the storm clouds that produce lightning.

When lightning strikes, it’s caused by the vertical movement of small ice particles, known as
graupel, and much smaller cloud ice. When they collide it causes electrons to jump from one to
the other, altering the distribution of electrons in the cloud and eventually resulting in the
electricity being discharged. Even if we see more thunderstorms occurring in the future,
Kahraman says, a warmer atmosphere means those storms will have less cloud ice than today’s
storms, which explains why we might see less lightning across Central Europe.
While this is good news for the more densely populated areas of Europe, it’s a concern for
northern countries which may need increased investment in climate adaptation measures;
lightning strikes can cause substantial damage to buildings and infrastructure. Hayley Fowler,
professor of climate change impacts and co-author of the study, says that research has revealed
‘more bad news for critical national infrastructure in northern Europe,’ following on from a UK
Parliament Joint Committee report that concluded the UK’s infrastructure is very vulnerable to
extreme weather.

References: Edited by Bryony Cottam (2023) Stormy future. Geographical, Volumen (95), 6-7.
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