1

Shifting sands

TWO recent statements from the army chief have given us some insight into what
might be going on in the mind of the man who gave Pakistan the ‘Bajwa Doctrine’.
While speaking at a private luncheon in Washington last week, and then at a
passing-out parade at PMA Kakul on Saturday, Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa seemingly
outlined what the military’s priorities may be after he steps down next month.
Speaking at the Washington lunch, the general had told those present that reviving
the country’s ailing economy should be the first priority of all segments of society.
He stressed the point by stating that Pakistan cannot achieve its objectives without a
strong economy to back it.

The economy is certainly not the army’s domain, and the statement put a damper on his other
statement at the same event — the assurance that the army will stay out of politics. But this much
was expected from the general, who has taken a keen personal interest in economic affairs. It need
only be pointed out that he personally intervened in July to ensure the revival of the IMF
programme by reaching out directly to Washington. The second important statement came during
Gen Bajwa’s speech to the cadets passing out from PMA Kakul. He said, “The armed forces […]
will never allow any country, group or force to politically or economically destabilise Pakistan.”
This has widely been perceived as a warning that the army may have had enough of the PTI —
especially since the party has been rocking the boat during a time of national crisis. However, it
doesn’t take much imagination to see that it could cut both ways.

Consider what was said when the Bajwa Doctrine was first unveiled in March 2018. A selected
group of journalists invited to hear it from the army chief was apparently told that Ishaq Dar’s
financial vision had been totally rejected and had damaged the state. On the other hand, there was
only praise for Miftah Ismail and his management of the economy. Mr Ismail has since served
another term as finance minister but was recently forced out by Mr Dar, who is back doing the
same job that had given Gen Bajwa grief. The question to be asked now is: has the security
establishment completely gotten over its distrust of the finance minister, or could it one day
overrule its concerns for stability? Given how deeply invested the military has become in
economic management under the incumbent chief, and considering Mr Dar’s continuing
predilection for flawed policies, can another run-in between the two be expected? The stakes are
high, and Pakistan cannot afford any more experiments, whether they originate from the finance
ministry or Aabpara. Will the establishment be able to hold its peace with the government if the
economic revival plan does not go as expected?

www.facebook.com/csspmsce www.facebook.com/groups/cssce
 2

Published in Dawn, October 11th, 2022

www.facebook.com/csspmsce www.facebook.com/groups/cssce
 3

Terror in GB

THE chilling recent episode in Chilas, where militants were able to practically hold
hostage a sitting Gilgit-Baltistan minister along with several others by blocking
Babusar Road, exposes a shocking lack of security in the area. A little-known outfit
calling itself Mujahideen Gilgit-Baltistan and Kohistan on Friday brazenly stopped
GB Minister Abaidullah Baig, who was travelling from Gilgit to Islamabad, whisked
him away and held up traffic on the high-altitude road for several hours. The
minister was later freed, but only after political leaders and clerics from Diamer, as
well as local officials, negotiated with the militants. Apparently, the militants want
their comrades — some involved in the deadly 2013 terrorist attack on the Nanga
Parbat base camp, in which foreign climbers were targeted — freed, along with an
end to women’s sports activities in GB. They said the road was blocked because the
state failed to honour a 2019 agreement with them, while giving the government a
10-day ultimatum to meet their demands.

This part of northern Pakistan has in the past witnessed grotesque terrorist violence. Aside from
the Nanga Parbat incident, in 2012 a series of monstrous attacks took place, in which people were
pulled out of buses and killed. These included incidents in Kohistan and Mansehra. Most of the
victims were Shia. All of these aforementioned terrorist attacks were carried out by the TTP or its
offshoots, and it is safe to assume the elements involved in last week’s Chilas ambush are linked to
the same groups. The state, particularly the security establishment, needs to explain how this
massive security lapse occurred. It is astounding that militants were able to block a major artery
with such ease. This time the militants let the hostages go; next time they may not be so
‘benevolent’. Moreover, the policy of negotiation and caving in to the demands of violent actors is
a flawed one, and has always failed. The state should by no means release men involved in
heinous acts of terrorism, while the militants’ other demands, such as ensuring women disappear
from the public sphere in GB, must also be dismissed. Elsewhere, in parts of KP there are now
credible reports that TTP fighters have once again picked up the gun. Clearly, militant groups are
again starting to throw their weight around. Instead of meekly reacting, the state must proactively
nip the terrorist threat in the bud before the nation is overwhelmed by a fresh wave of militant
violence.

Published in Dawn, October 11th, 2022

www.facebook.com/csspmsce www.facebook.com/groups/cssce
 4

What next for Nawaz?

FORMER PM Nawaz Sharif wants to return home to lead his party in the next
elections. The only obstacles stopping him from coming back are his 2018
conviction and lifetime disqualification by the Supreme Court in an ‘assets beyond
means’ case.

His prerecorded, ‘heart-to-heart’ interview aired on Sunday focused mostly on the pain he and his
family had to go through during his days in jail along with his daughter while his wife lay on her
deathbed in London.

Yet the underlying message is clear: the controversial judgement against him is flawed, politically
motivated and ‘revenge-based’, and meant to banish him from politics forever. Beyond that, he
wants the judges to right the wrong done to him and invalidate his conviction, and consequently,
lifelong disqualification. None of what he has stated in the interview is new.

It is just a reiteration of what the former prime minister and his party have been saying ever since
he was indicted in the Panama Papers case while still in office.

With his party leading the coalition at the centre and Imran Khan out of favour with the
establishment, it was but expected. Still, the question remains: will the new narrative work in Mr
Sharif’s favour despite a change in the PML-N’s fortunes, and will the judges reverse his
conviction? Maryam Nawaz’s acquittal in the Avenfield case and the Supreme Court chief justice’s
remarks against lifelong disqualification are hopeful signs for Mr Sharif.

Yet no matter how strong his narrative, it won’t be easy for him to get relief as there is a
perception that some decisions in cases involving politicians seem to have been person-specific. If
the PML-N supremo wants to come back, he shouldn’t wait for his conviction to be reversed. His
presence in the country will help him more than any narrative he builds abroad.

Published in Dawn, October 11th, 2022

www.facebook.com/csspmsce www.facebook.com/groups/cssce
 5

Our quiet desperation

The writer is a journalist.

DURING a recent conversation, a fellow journalist and friend expressed regret that
he wasn’t trained in air-conditioning repair. And before I could even ask why, he
explained that heating and air-conditioning repair is a lucrative field (in shores far
away from Pakistan). It was a skill that could have ensured him a life abroad, he
explained.

It reminded me of another chat with another friend who is not from the benighted field that pays
my bills. During a random discussion on politics, he abruptly mentioned he was looking at
options abroad — which, loosely translated, meant that he was looking for destinations which
offered easy residency rules and where passports are easy to acquire. And as he told me this, he
suggested I look at fellowships abroad.

www.facebook.com/csspmsce www.facebook.com/groups/cssce
 6

During a casual dinner conversation, a female friend said she was thankful she and her husband
did not have children. Her husband sitting next to her didn’t disagree.

A colleague recently spent a couple of days at hospital for the birth of his child and came back to
tell story after story of what those around him were saying. The language was rather colourful, he
said, and no one was spared. According to him, there was anger enough that some were willing to
commit violence against those they held responsible.

How the entire ruling elite can ignore the

mood of the populace is mind-boggling.

Admittedly, around me it could be an age or class thing. Those I interact with tend to be the most
vocal about how their quality of life has been adversely affected. Or it could be a midlife crisis —
many of us are there, I realise. I looked further up the food chain — only to be told that many
businessmen too were now speaking of moving money and family elsewhere. (Additionally, it
seems those in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are considering this because of the extortion calls they are
getting.)

No one I asked disagreed that the sense of despondency is more pervasive this year. This includes
politicians from parties in power and out.

It has to be conceded that Pakistanis have never been a sunny lot with stars in their eyes. In fact, it
has always intrigued many that as a people we tend to be rather critical of our state and
pessimistic of our chances of success — which I have written about more than once. There are no
definite answers as to why but one could guess that it is linked to our long bouts of
authoritarianism in which so much of our policymaking was carried out by so few; the lack of a
say in policies, politics, identity, seems to have translated into a perpetual sense of self-loathing
and incessant criticism.

Despite this being a national pastime, the feeling this year appears unprecedented. And it is far
more widespread.

Much of this is due to economic instability and fragility. It seems as if in our cycles of boom and
bust, the latter are growing longer and more intense while the former are even more fleeting. And
with external shocks (present and expected) being what they are, the only prediction in town is of
worse to come.

www.facebook.com/csspmsce www.facebook.com/groups/cssce
 7

More than that, however, the sense of despair and hopelessness stems from the behaviour of
those in charge and those contending for the hot seat. None of them are interested in, or don’t
understand the need for, meaningful change. The politicians are too busy wanting to win power
while ensuring the other is eliminated. And the establishment is also living in the 1990s, foraging
for dollar flows and planning to manufacture consent.

Between the two sets of rulers, there is no indication whatsoever that they want to fix anything.
The PTI wants an election but holds out no assurance that it knows what to do once the election is
held. The PML-N is rather busy recounting its (personal) grievances and wanting a rewind to its
previous term, while the PPP, like the establishment, thinks the world can be forced to believe
Pakistan still matters. It is astounding the manner in which the pitch to the world about the floods
in the country has been made or the rapidity with which the cabinet continues to grow. And this
crazy notion that with a little bit of time, the government will be able to recapture lost political
ground is no less illogical than the idea floated in 2018 that the PTI be given six months to fix
everything.

How this entire leadership or ruling elite — call it what you will — can ignore the mood of the
populace is mind-boggling. As a politician pointed out, the people are so angry and so alienated
they tend to support any party which espouses an anti-establishment slogan. This was PML-N in
the past and the PTI now, and yet there are no alarm bells ringing (especially in Rome). This
perhaps is another reason for the pervasive anger or hopelessness; for if there was a section of the
population which once saw a certain player as the saviour, set apart from the politicians, this is no
longer the case.

It would also do well to remember that this is the case in Punjab; elsewhere the alienation has
already turned to political violence — in Balochistan — or increasing crime — in urban centres
such as Karachi.

Is it even possible for those at the top to have a dialogue about this, instead of droning on about
‘truth and reconciliation’ processes, which is their code word for continuing the blame game and
harping on ‘democracy’, another code word for winning power for themselves? And before it gets
too late.

The writer is a journalist.

Published in Dawn, October 11th, 2022

www.facebook.com/csspmsce www.facebook.com/groups/cssce
 8

Are Muslims the only victims?

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi.

FIVE Muslim men went to meet the head of the Hindu revivalist RSS. The idea
behind the visit was wrapped in the cliché that there’s no alternative to dialogue.
The group had extraordinary members. It comprised a former lieutenant governor
of Delhi, a former chief election commissioner, a former army general, a leading
hotelier and an Urdu-language journalist. They all evidently came back impressed
with Mohan Bhagwat’s punctuality, his gentle demeanour, and his ability to hear
them out patiently. Now they want to meet Prime Minster Modi.

They gave Bhagwat a book with details of how the Muslim population in India was now growing at
a far slower rate than previously claimed. The visitors briefed the RSS chief about the fallacy that
Muslims practise polygamy in a big way. They thought that the RSS chief was unaware of the

www.facebook.com/csspmsce www.facebook.com/groups/cssce
 9

widely shared facts. He in turn said the cow was a most sensitive issue for Hindus and suggested
that Muslims should voluntarily give up consuming beef in states that had refused to ban its
slaughter. The recalcitrant states include at least two where the BJP is in power. The visitors
apparently endorsed the suggestion to usher communal cordiality.

While the five sages were purportedly trying to protect their community from daily humiliation
and assaults from Hindutva, consider the four Hindus and a Sikh — though they would probably
protest being limited to their religious identity — who were fighting to retrieve democratic spaces
for not only India’s largest minority community but also the smaller ones and, of course, for all
the rights guaranteed by the constitution to all citizens equally. Of the five, four are eminent
former judges, their team crowned by a woman judge. The fifth member is a well-regarded former
home secretary of India.

Civil society activists persuaded them to head a citizens’ committee to probe the deadly anti-
Muslim violence that engulfed northeast Delhi in early 2020. This was around the time when
Delhi had become the hub of a nationwide movement led by women against the Modi
government’s newly unveiled citizenship laws. The laws claimed to extend Indian citizenship to
everyone in trouble with their states in the neighbouring countries. Muslims were pointedly
excluded. This selectivity violated India’s constitution and also undermined Muslims in the
neighbouring countries who faced harassment by their Muslim governments, not unlike the
Hindus targeted and jailed in India for opposing Hindutva policies.

How did they dance their way into the BJP

and how do they feel about being there in
an era of lynching, public flogging and
daily humiliation of fellow Muslims?

The committee’s report offers a straightforward conclusion its members arrived at. Titled
Uncertain Justice — A Citizens Committee Report on the North East Delhi Violence 2020, it
deserves a separate detailed discussion. The media largely buried the conclusions, naturally.
However, there has been a highlighting of the month-old meeting between the Muslim men and
Mr Bhagwat. Did the RSS reveal its meeting with the five men to time it with the government’s
ban on a Muslim group that works with low-caste Hindus and Dalits? It’s called the People’s Front
of India. Turns out that the journalist arrested as a terrorist in Uttar Pradesh when he was

www.facebook.com/csspmsce www.facebook.com/groups/cssce
 10

travelling to report the horrific gang rape and murder of a Dalit girl two years ago, belonged to the
PFI, now a banned group.

Any Dalit-Muslim bonding is always a potent challenge for Hindutva. Former UP chief minister
Mayawati welded it to win several elections. PFI has had its share of notoriety too, including the
gruesome chopping of the hand of a Christian teacher in Kerala for alleged blasphemy against
Islam. Suffice it to say that Hindutva’s rage in Delhi may not have been unrelated to the solidarity
the Muslim women-led protests received from every religious group in 2020.

Many Muslim groups, including the influential Jamiatul Ulema-i-Hind are perceived as being soft
on Hindutva. Both are opposed to the social and cultural mingling of Hindus and Muslims. Both
oppose enlightened education for their communities. Before the visit of the five men to the RSS
chief, there were five other prominent Muslims, either members of the BJP or handpicked by Mr
Modi for key assignments. One is a governor of a crucial opposition-ruled state. Another is a
former governor of a key state. The remaining three have been ministers in BJP ministries,
including in the Modi cabinet.

The point is, did the five visitors ever consider seeking out the fellow Muslims for tips as BJP
insiders? One of them is the author of a mostly adulatory book on Nehru, and two others were
great fans of Indira Gandhi and became beneficiaries of her affection. They were feted initially as
Congress stars. How did they dance their way into the BJP and how do they feel about being there
in an era of lynching, public flogging and daily humiliation of fellow Muslims? Standard Muslim
links or myths about beef eating, polygamy and demographic calculations have surely been shared
with the BJP and the RSS by them? What was the response? How do they feel about the release of
the 11 rapists and killers from Gujarat on Independence Day?

There was once a Kumaramangalam thesis. It advocated that leftists join the Congress
government to help keep Indira Gandhi to left of centre. She agreed to the alliance and carried out
the nationalisation of banks and abolished privy purses of erstwhile Indian royalty to prove the
point. Is this what the few Muslims, Dalits, Christians, the tribespeople and Sikhs in the Hindutva
fold are seeking to do?

There’s a useful book by Bryan Rigg for all concerned to thumb through. It’s called Hitler’s Jewish
Soldiers: The Untold Story of Nazi Racial Laws and Men of Jewish Descent in the German
Military.

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi.

jawednaqvi@gmail.com

www.facebook.com/csspmsce www.facebook.com/groups/cssce
 11

Published in Dawn, October 11th, 2022

www.facebook.com/csspmsce www.facebook.com/groups/cssce
 12

Legacy of hope

The writer is an architect.

AKHTAR Hameed Khan, the renowned Pakistani social scientist, and father of the
world-famous Comilla Cooperatives, passed away on Oct 9, 1999, in the US. His
body was brought back to Karachi and buried in the compound of the Orangi Pilot
Project Research and Training Institute (OPP-RTI), his first and last urban
development project, 23 years ago today.

Akhtar Hameed Khan has left behind a huge legacy. The OPP-RTI sanitation project was
replicated in many countries in Africa, Central Asia, and South and Southeast Asia. When he
asked me to come to the OPP in 1981 to discuss the problems he was facing in developing a
technology for his sanitation project, he said to me that only a technology that could be afforded
by the people of Orangi would serve the requirements of what he had in mind. I soon realised that

www.facebook.com/csspmsce www.facebook.com/groups/cssce
 13

in his thinking if the technology could be afforded by the people, we could have a national
programme. If it had to function even partially on government finance, it could only, at best, be a
number of subsidised projects.

We were able to develop such a technology and the sanitation project — which in Pakistan, till
2018, had served more than 180,636 households. It became famous all over the world in different
forms. Many of these replication projects received international awards, and so did the OPP-RTI
and some of the professionals who worked for it.

In addition to the work in Orangi, the most important application of his structure of thinking has
been applied by his friend and student, Shoaib Sultan Khan, to the work being carried out on an
enormous scale by the RSPNs, consisting of the National Rural Support Programme, the Sindh
Rural Support Organisation, and their Balochistan and KP counterparts. These projects are
changing the face of poverty in Pakistan, and their most important aspect is the empowerment of
women through the creation of women’s organisations and their involvement in developing and
managing savings, infrastructure and their day-to-day affairs.

For Akhtar Hameed Khan, small projects

were islands of hope.

One such project is the Technical Training Research Center (TTRC). It is run by a young man
called Muhammad Sirajuddin. He joined the OPP in 1994 as an intern and was paid Rs30 per day.
Since his interest was in housing, he was trained in mapping, fieldwork, and light and ventilation
for homes. This training, like most of OPP-RTI trainings, consisted of learning by doing. Being
worried by the fact that he had no technical qualifications, he joined Saifee College (Polytechnic)
in 1997 and received a diploma. In 1997, the OPP decided to help Siraj in establishing an
independent practice. This was the beginning of the TTRC. The OPP gave Siraj space, a drawing
table and a drafting board, and he started to provide plans in consultancy to those Orangi homes
and institutions who wish to build their homes, schools, or other construction and charged a small
fee for it. Soon, Siraj acquired his own premises and became a consultant to the OPP-RTI for
mapping and OPP’s house improvement and education programmes. In the 2010 floods, he
provided technical and logistic support to the OPP’s flood relief and rehabilitation project.

Today, the TTRC has a staff of nine persons, of which two are women from Orangi. The persons
who work with Siraj now were originally also unqualified, but they, too, have acquired

www.facebook.com/csspmsce www.facebook.com/groups/cssce
 14

qualifications at relevant institutions and poly­technics.

Siraj supports com­munities in buil­ding their sanitation in the same manner in which the OPP-RTI
has done since 1982. His clientele is increasing, and in the floods and demolitions for homes in
the various nullahs of Karachi, he was asked by communities to develop alternative plans from
government ones. He did this, and in the process, saved a large number of homes from
demolition.

Apart from Siraj, many persons who have worked with the OPP-RTI have initiated their own
organisations. Another such organisation is the Akhtar Hameed Khan Memorial Trust. They have
developed a solid waste management system which is being promoted and accepted by local
government agencies and NGOs all over Pakistan. Here again, the principles of research and
extension are drawn from Akhtar Hameed Khan’s work.

Akhtar Hameed Khan said very often that these small projects are islands of hope in a sea of
turmoil and that if they kept going, they would change the face of Pakistan.

The finest gift that we can give to Akhtar Hameed Khan’s legacy is to help the creation of such
small, sustainable institutions countrywide.

The writer is an architect.

arifhasan37@gmail.com

www.arifhasan.org

Published in Dawn, October 11th, 2022

www.facebook.com/csspmsce www.facebook.com/groups/cssce
 15

Collective fault

THE narrative around past natural disasters in Pakistan has rightly focused on their
unfortunate scale and our lack of collective control. The horrific floods this year feel
entirely familiar, and at the same time, entirely different.

We do partially accept the lack of collective control over such natural disasters. However, we are
also aware that this disaster can be traced to those human activities that evidently led to climate
change in the first place. This may represent our collective lack of control as Pakistanis since the
country has contributed very little to the world’s vast carbon emissions. At the same time, it is
certainly not a lack of collective control on the part of all humanity.

With the acknowledgement of collective control across the world, one naturally expects a global
willingness to take responsibility. While the outpouring of international support for Pakistan

www.facebook.com/csspmsce www.facebook.com/groups/cssce
 16

during these tough times is heartening, one can’t help but ask a few fundamental questions about
the world response we have witnessed lately.

If our collective responsibility as humans is so clear in this case, why is providing support to
Pakistan voluntary and ad hoc? Why is providing this support left to the conscience of individuals
and countries when we can clearly assign responsibility for climate change?

The science behind climate change helps us

assign responsibility.

In this case, it would make sense to help with his medical expenses out of the goodness of one’s
heart. But if your vehicle damages the neighbour’s car and you are primarily to blame for the
accident, would it make any sense if you only reimbursed him for his medical expenses only if you
felt like it? That would be unjust.

Voluntary, ad hoc global support for the recent floods in Pakistan would only make sense if
human beings were not responsible for the crisis. Overwhelming scientific evidence, however,
shows that they are indeed responsible for the devastation in Pakistan. Global support to Pakistan
in this case should hence be mandatory and proportionate to responsibility. It should, at the very
least, cover the destruction wreaked on the country.

One can understand the voluntary nature of the global response to the 2005 earthquake in
Pakistan. As devastating as the 2005 disaster was, other countries weren’t responsible for it. The
voluntary and ad hoc, rather than structured and mandatory, response to the floods this year, is
much harder to digest.

Part of the problem is that climate change isn’t as ‘visible’, as for instance, the car accident is in
our example. The solid science behind climate change helps us assign responsibility. But the
complex chain of responsibility where historic levels of carbon emissions impact environmental
outcomes today is much harder to ‘observe’. The global narrative today reflects this dichotomy
where the science may be clear, but individual responsibility is much harder for us to see
intuitively.

Fortunately, climate change activists around the world have taken Pakistan’s floods as an
opportunity to shift the narrative more towards a collective responsibility. The disaster has at the
very least initiated a global discussion, even though in practice, the international response

www.facebook.com/csspmsce www.facebook.com/groups/cssce
 17

remains voluntary and ad hoc. At the same time, it will be a long battle to change the global
narrative and eventually the nature of response to climate change-related disasters.

Sadly, with climate change, Pakistan won’t be the first country to experience such a disaster. The
floods in our country are unfortunately only a preview of what lies ahead. An in­­creased freque­n­cy
of extreme we­­ather events is just one of the many consequences of climate change. For instance,
rising sea levels threaten the lives and livelihoods of millions living in coastal areas. Global
warming is likely to exacerbate water shortages in water-stressed regions globally. A warmer
planet will lead to higher rates of animal extinction which will have consequences for the global
ecosystem and food supply.

This makes it even more important for the world to take up the question of collective
responsibility sooner rather than later. The current work on climate change mitigation and
adaptation across the world is, of course, important. But it also needs to be coupled with a change
in our narrative on assigning responsibility. And with that, responsibility would naturally come as
mandatory and structured, and a proportional support for countries that bear the brunt of an
increasingly warm planet.

The author has a doctorate from the University of Oxford and is graduate of the Harvard
Kennedy School of Government

Twitter: @KhudadadChattha

Published in Dawn, October 11th, 2022

www.facebook.com/csspmsce www.facebook.com/groups/cssce