Gopal Giri Goswami 15-04-2022

Gopal Giri Goswami is a correspondent, columnist and independent journalist. He tweets

with @gopalgiri_uk

What Does Imran Khan's Demise Imply for Geopolitical Reality?

On Monday, April 11th, after a lengthy political drama, Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif took
oath as Pakistan's 23rd Prime Minister. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)-led government
was overthrown when coalition partners withdrew their support, saying that then-Prime
Minister Imran Khan conspired against Pakistan's army head, General Bajwa. It is worth
noting that Imran Khan was the first Pakistani Prime Minister to be dethroned via a no-
confidence resolution, but he followed the Pakistani Prime Ministerial legacy: Imran Khan,
like all his predecessors since Pakistan's inception, did not serve a full term. Yes, no Pakistani
prime minister has served a full term as the Islamic nation continues to spiral out of control
with each ostensibly chaotic iteration that only serves to exacerbate the crisis.

His presidency was typified by huge promises, larger-than-life boasts, and language that
would make any outsider laugh, but it placed him in a stronger position among Pakistanis.
He often mimicked the body language of a famous Netflix comedy called Ertugral, which
praised Turkish Islamists in an artificial 13th-century narrative. He also successfully
enchanted the Pakistani audience with his pollyannaish speeches on Naya Pakistan and the
establishment of a utopian territory, Riyasat-e-Madina, outside the land of the original
Muslims, Saudi Arabia. His tricks aided him greatly in avoiding inflation, stalled growth,
mounting debt, decreasing currency reserves, unemployment, corruption, and other
national problems that he had previously pledged to solve. However, it is worth noting that
his background also played a significant role in his ascension to the PM's chair, since rural
Pakistanis held him in high respect as a result of his privileged education overseas and
subsequent spell as captain of the Pakistani cricket team. To them, he was a guy who
understood Europe and other foreign countries, spoke English well, and, most crucially, had
a worldview that seemed more Islamist than Arabs themselves when it came to public
demonstrations.

Despite the fact that this is normal among our neighbors, considering the status of the globe
today, it is a worrying scenario for us. Let us examine why this normal power dynamics
change in Pakistan will have long-term significance and ramifications for India and the rest
of the globe.

To begin, it is critical to recognize that no Pakistani administration can survive without the
active assistance of the Pakistani military establishment, and Imran Khan's fiasco sprang
from his misunderstanding of this reality. Despite being removed from the highest
constitutional position, he remains a popular leader in Pakistan, although he has been at
differences with Pakistani Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa. On April 9, he
sought to dismiss Bajwa in order to assist one of his confidants, Lt Gen Hameed, climb to the
top of ISI's command.

With being stated, it is critical to remember the adage, "every nation has an army, but the
Pakistani army has a country." The Pakistani Army is engaged in practically every company,
from Fauji Riceflakes to Fauji Fertilizers. Power in Pakistan, whether political or financial,
passes from Rawalpindi to Islamabad. In reality, the court, too, showed Imran the door,
reinstalling the army's control over the country's democratic system. Imran Khan did not
take any of this lightly, as he delivered many impassioned addresses in the last month of his
presidency, with the one on April 10th gaining huge support from regular Pakistanis. He
went on to describe the United States as the primary foreign force plotting to depose his
rule, notwithstanding Pakistan's increasing closeness to both China and Russia. So far, the
Pakistani Army has not participated in any capacity in the power transfer process, at least on
the surface. The next elections are scheduled to take place before the end of October, since
the PML-N and PPP want to utilize this period to strengthen political support on the ground.
Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party may attempt to force early elections by
resigning from all provincial and national parliament, but this effort is unlikely to succeed.

These trends might lead to further conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan, if it hasn't
already, as the two radicalized and prejudiced Islamic nations continue to clash. On the
other side, the cash-strapped Taliban has faced economic difficulties and political isolation
from the world's democracies since seizing control of Afghanistan, and its leaders are eyeing
Pakistan as the next battlefield. Its hold on the Taliban seems to be slipping, with an
increasing number of reports of clashes between the Pakistani Army and the Taliban's
jihadis. With the United States claiming to have replaced Pakistan on the Taliban front with
Qatar, the arrangement poses significant risks to various parties in the area. "We (the
United States) don't need Pakistan as a conduit to the Taliban," said Lisa Curtis, head of the
Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Centre for a New American Security think tank. Qatar is
unquestionably filling that role right now."

On the China front, all seems to be normal, since Pakistan's current Prime Minister, Shahbaz
Sharif, is known to work with China on the $60 billion CPEC project as the governor of
Pakistan's eastern Punjab province. Even Imran Khan has been open in his support for China,
thus the prevailing circumstances are essentially the same as in the past. However, the
economic side of Pakistan-China relations will remain a mystery, since Pakistan just returned
a billion-dollar debt to Saudi Arabia by borrowing another billion-dollar loan from China at a
higher interest rate. Such foundations continue to weigh on the Pakistani economy, which is
now experiencing a 35-billion-dollar trade imbalance, a record high for the nation.
Increased disarray does not seem to be a positive indication for India, since Shahbaz Sharif's
initial words in Indo-Pak ties during his reign were geared at bringing Kashmir into politics.
However, unlike Imran Khan, who resembles a downtuned version of Arvid Kejriwal owing
to their comparable educated, dreamy personalities that fail to accomplish anything
significant on the ground, Shahbaz hails from a political dynasty, with his brother Nawas
Sharif having gained the PM chair three times. Given that the Sharif family has pursued a
more peaceful approach in Kashmir, this might be part of Sharif's effort to divert attention
away from inflation and other difficulties. Regardless, the overall picture suggests that the
Pakistani Army will be able to operate more easily, which is bad news for the region's
security. In addition to these events, diplomatic negotiations between the two areas have
been stopped, adding to the turbulence of the situation. Political unrest in the coming days
may exacerbate the situation, as Imran Khan and his party are masters at taking the streets
by storm. This may compel the existing leadership to shift its focus to other issues, which is
also not a good indication. Nonetheless, a change in Pakistan's administration would only
help to destroy the country's existing stability.

According to US-based South Asia experts, Pakistan's political issue is unlikely to be a

priority for President Joe Biden, who is focused with the Ukraine situation, unless it ends in
massive upheaval or increasing tensions with New Delhi. "We have a lot of other fish to fry,"
said Robin Raphel, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
and a former assistant secretary of state for South Asia. "Because the military is in control of
the policies that matter to the US, such as Afghanistan, India, and nuclear weapons," said
Curtis, who previously worked as the National Security Council's senior director for South
Asia under former US President Donald Trump. Khan has blamed the United States for the
current political predicament, stating that the US wanted him deposed after his recent trip
to Moscow. Washington categorically denies any connection.

The cause for such exceptional political transformations may be traced partly to
international pressures and multiple agreements that prohibit any country having an army
coup from accepting foreign money. In reality, Pakistan is seeking a $6 billion IMF bailout,
which explains why the Pakistan army prefers to work behind closed doors. History
demonstrates that a puppet government allows it to function freely while receiving foreign
cash under the guise of democracy. It is up to us to reveal the truth of Pakistan's democratic
process's coming demise, but it is evident that this paradigm of sustaining the status quo in
Pak's power hegemony will not survive as many future iterations as it has in the past. Every
time a new leader takes the PM's seat, expectations fly higher than the prior time, and the
fiasco, too, causes a bigger uproar.

Gopal Giri Goswami is a correspondent, columnist and independent journalist. He tweets

with @gopalgiri_uk