MAT099

FOUNDATION MATHEMATICS II FOR ENGINEERS

GROUP PROJECT REPORT

TASK 1: ELEPHANT POPULATION IN KRUGER NATIONAL PARK,

SOUTH AFRICA

TASK 2: NUMERICAL METHODS (NEWTON-RAPHSON METHOD)

NO. NAME OF STUDENTS STUDENT ID

1 NURUL YASMIN BINTI SONY HARSONO 2019272458

2 MUHAMMAD ILMAN HAFIZ BIN MOHD ZAINURIN 2019298722

3 MOHAMAD SYAZWAN HAFIZ BIN MOHAMED AMIN 2019232088

4 MUHAMMAD ZULHIMI BIN OMAR 2019271094

5 NUR SYAMALIA FAIQAH BINTI MOHD KAMAL 2019248006

6 MUHAMMAD ARIF ZAKWAN BIN ROHISHAM 2019285554

1
 DECLARATION:

I declare that assignment here submitted:

is our own work,

is not copied from other groups.

I have:

contributed to the completion of this assignment.

and not allowed anyone to copy our work

I AM A RESPONSIBLE GROUP MEMBER

NURUL YASMIN BINTI SONY HARSONO 2019272458

MUHAMMAD ILMAN HAFIZ BIN MOHD 2019298722

ZAINURIN

MOHAMAD SYAZWAN HAFIZ BIN 2019232088

MOHAMED AMIN

MUHAMMAD ZULHIMI BIN OMAR 2019271094

NUR SYAMALIA FAIQAH BINTI MOHD 2019248006

KAMAL

MUHAMMAD ARIF ZAKWAN BIN 2019285554

ROHISHAM

2
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

First and foremost, praise and thanks to Allah, the Almighty, for His showers of blessings throughout
our research work to complete the project successfully. We would like to express our deep and sincere
gratitude to our project supervisor, Miss Sharifah Norasikin Bt Syed Hod, for giving us the opportunity to
carry out research and providing invaluable guidance throughout this project. Her dedication, vision, sincerity
and motivation have deeply inspired us. She used all of her efforts to guide us and give ideas on how to
complete and finally present the project as clearly as possible. Finally, we would love to express our gratitude
to all beloved friends who helped us a lot in finalizing this assignment within the limited time frame.

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 TABLE OF CONTENT

PAGE
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 3
TABLE OF CONTENT 4
LIST OF TABLES 5
LIST OF FIGURES 5

ASSIGNMENT 6
1 Task 1 (Elephant population in Kruger National Park, South Africa) 6
1.1 INTRODUCTION 6
1.2 IMPLEMENTATION 7
1.3 DATA ANALYSIS & DISCUSSION 8

2 Task 2 : Numerical Methods (Newton-Raphson Method) 15

2.1 INTRODUCTION 15
2.2 IMPLEMENTATION 17
2.3 DATA ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION 18

CONCLUSION 20
BIBLIOGRAPHY 21

4
 LIST OF TABLES

PAGE
Table 1: Growth Data Set For Elephant Population in Kruger Park, South Africa From 1994-1999 7

Table 2: Growth Data Set For Elephant Population in Kruger Park, South Africa From 2004-2009 7
Table 3: Comparison Predicted Number Elephant Population with actual value in Kruger Park, South Africa From
1994-2000 13

Table 4: Comparison Predicted Number Elephant Population with actual value in Kruger Park, South Africa From
2004-2010 13
Table 5 : Newton’s method to estimate the root correct to 6 decimal places 17

Table 6 : The value of approximate root (new x) 18

LIST OF FIGURES

PAGE

Figure 1: Elephant Population in Kruger National Park from 1994-1999 8

Figure 2: Particular Solution Graph of Elephant Population in Kruger National Park from 1994-1999 10
Figure 3: Elephant Population in Kruger National Park from 2004-2009 10

Figure 4: Particular Solution Graph of Elephant Population in Kruger National Park from 2004-2009 12

Figure 5 : Newton’s method 16

Figure 6 : Solving Newton’s Raphson Equation using Microsoft Excel 17

1
Figure 7 : Graph of f(x) = ln(x4 ) + 3 ex -4x 18

Figure 8 : Graph of first and second approximate roots 18

Figure 9 : Graph of second and third approximate roots 19

Figure 10 : Graph of third, fourth and fifth approximate roots 19

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ASSIGNMENT

1 Task 1 (Elephant population in Kruger National Park, South Africa)

1.1 INTRODUCTION

Elephants are known as the world's largest land animal and now they have been spread intensely along
the past few decades. This makes the world worried because it could end up like other animals such as the
Mammoth and Dodo bird so we make calculations to predict the future of their population variations and
trends. Based on data that they collected using aerial surveys conducted from helicopters or fixed-wing aircraft
the elephant population in 1994-1999, we can find the rate of growth of the elephant in South Africa and how
to solve this problem, not only choosing actions which bring good consequences to the elephant but also to
the ecosystem.
Problem Statement:
The problem of what affects the decrease in the amount of elephants is a big issue and cannot be
neglected by any party. Throughout this research we want to know what has affected the population growth
of an elephant in the past in Kruger National Park in South Africa because it can be classified as extinct sooner
or later.
The objective for this project are:
● To predict the future population of elephant in the future
● To determine what has affected the growth of elephant
● To find out what will affect the change of population in the future
Scope and Limitation:
Data that we used are specifically in Kruger National Park, South Africa in 1994-1999 and in 2004-
2009, so the data that we took only from the Kruger National Park, South Africa and within the time frame
that had been stated. Then, we cannot confirm the exact reason for the change of elephant in the future because
it is just a prediction the same goes to the future population of the elephant.

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1.2 IMPLEMENTATION

Growth Problem
One of the earliest attempts to model human population growth by means of mathematics was by English
clergyman and economist Thomas Malthus in 1798. Basically, the idea behind the Malthusian model is the
assumption that rate at which the population of a country grows at a certain time is proportional to the total
population of the country at that time. In other words, the more people there are at time t, the more there are
going to be in the future. In mathematical terms, if P(t) defines the total population at time t, then the
Malthusian model can be expressed as
𝑑𝑃 𝑑𝑃
𝛼 𝑃 or = 𝑘𝑃
𝑑𝑡 𝑑𝑡

where k is a constant of proportionality (Zill and Wright, 2013).

Table 1: Growth Data Set for Elephant Population in Kruger Park, South Africa from 1994-1999

t Time ( Year) Elephant

Population

0 1994 7806

1 1995 8064

2 1996 8320

3 1997 8371

4 1998 8869

5 1999 9152

Table 2: Growth Data Set for Elephant Population in Kruger Park, South Africa from 2004-2009

t Time ( Year) Elephant Population

0 2004 11454

1 2005 12467

2 2006 12427

3 2007 13050

4 2008 15811

5 2009 16315

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1.3 DATA ANALYSIS & DISCUSSION

Figure 1: Elephant Population in Kruger National Park from 1994-1999

This graph shows the elephant population from 1994 to 1999. In 1994, the elephant population recorded was
7806 elephants and increased every year with the average increase of elephant 3.24% elephants per year.

Steps to obtain particular solution:

Let P(t): the number of elephant population present at time t (year).

Since the rate of growth is proportional to the number of elephant population P(t),
𝑑𝑃 𝑑𝑃
𝛼 𝑃 or = 𝑘𝑃
𝑑𝑡 𝑑𝑡

where k is the constant of proportionality.

solve it by using the approach of separable variable by first separating the variables P and t.
1
𝑑𝑃 = 𝑘 𝑑𝑡
𝑃
Then integrate both sides of the equation
1
∫ 𝑑𝑃 = ∫ 𝑘 𝑑𝑡
𝑃
𝑙𝑛|𝑃| = 𝑘𝑡 + 𝐶
𝑃 = 𝑒 𝑘𝑡+𝐶
The general solution can be simplified to be𝑃 = 𝐴𝑒 𝑘𝑡 , where 𝑒 𝐶 = 𝐴
Using the initial condition t = 0 (1994) , P = 7806
7806 = 𝐴𝑒𝑘(0)
P = 7806
The general solution becomes 𝑃 = 7806𝑒 𝑘𝑡

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Find value of constant k by using:
1. t = 1 (1995), P = 8064
8064 = 7806𝑒 𝑘(1)
8064
𝑒𝑘 =
7806
8064
𝑙𝑛𝑒 𝑘 = 𝑙𝑛
7806
8064
𝑘 = 𝑙𝑛 ≈ 0.0325170
7806
2. t = 2 (1996), P = 8320
8320 = 7806𝑒 𝑘(2)
8320
𝑒 2𝑘 =
7806
8320
𝑙𝑛𝑒 2𝑘 = 𝑙𝑛
7806
8320
2𝑘 = 𝑙𝑛
7806
2𝑘 = 0.0637696
𝑘 ≈ 0.0318848
The average value of constant k is:
𝑘₁+𝑘₂
k=
2
0.0325170 + 0.0318848
k=
2
𝑘 ≈ 0.0322

The particular solution now becomes P(t) = 7806𝑒 (0.0322)𝑡

To determine the number of elephant population in year 1996, t = 2:

𝑃 = 7806𝑒 (0.0322)(2)
P=8325

To predict unknown number of elephant in year of 2000, t = 6

𝑃 = 7806𝑒 (0.0322)(6)
P= 9470

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 Figure 2: Particular Solution Graph of Elephant Population in Kruger National Park from 1994-1999

By using this particular solution, an exponential graph of the number of elephants over time can be
created. The graph shows the number of elephants increasing over time. The graph was created using Desmos
when entered the equation of P(t) = 7806𝑒 (0.0322)𝑡 . The number of elephants also can be predicted over time
and comparison can be made whether the increasing number of elephants are accurate with the actual number
of elephants and prediction also can be made with the unknown number of elephants in a certain year.

Figure 3: Elephant Population in Kruger National Park from 2004-2009

This graph shows the number of elephant populations in 2004 to 2009.In 2004 the number of elephant
populations recorded was 11454 increasing until 2005 which were 12467. The number of elephants slightly
decreased by 0.32 percent in 2006. Finally, the number of elephants continued to increase in 2006 until 2009.
The number of elephants recorded in 2009 was 16315.

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Steps to obtain particular solution

Let P(t): the number of elephant population present at time t (year).

Since the rate of growth is proportional to the number of elephant population P(t),
𝑑𝑃 𝑑𝑃
𝛼 𝑃 or = 𝑘𝑃
𝑑𝑡 𝑑𝑡

where k is the constant of proportionality.

solve it by using the approach of separable variable by first separating the variables P and t.
1
𝑑𝑃 = 𝑘 𝑑𝑡
𝑃
Then integrate both sides of the equation
1
∫ 𝑑𝑃 = ∫ 𝑘 𝑑𝑡
𝑃
𝑙𝑛|𝑃| = 𝑘𝑡 + 𝐶
𝑃 = 𝑒 𝑘𝑡+𝐶
The general solution can be simplified to be 𝑃 = 𝐴𝑒 𝑘𝑡 , where 𝑒 𝐶 = 𝐴
Using the initial condition t = 0 (2004) , P = 11454
11454 = 𝐴𝑒𝑘(0)
𝐴 = 11454
The general solution becomes 𝑃 = 11454𝑒 𝑘𝑡
Find value of constant k by using:
1. t = 1 (2005), P = 12467
12467 = 11454𝑒 𝑘(1)
12467
𝑒𝑘 =
11454
12467
𝑙𝑛𝑒 𝑘 = 𝑙𝑛
11454
12467
𝑘 = 𝑙𝑛 ≈ 0.0847461
11454
2. t = 2 (2006), P = 12427
12427 = 11454𝑒 𝑘(2)
12427
𝑒 2𝑘 =
11454
12427
𝑙𝑛𝑒 2𝑘 = 𝑙𝑛
11454
12427
2𝑘 = 𝑙𝑛
11454
2𝑘 = 0.08153251
𝑘 ≈ 0.04076626

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The average value of constant k is:
𝑘₁+𝑘₂
k=
2
0.0847461+ 0.04076626
k=
2
𝑘 ≈ 0.062756

The particular solution now becomes P(t) = 11454𝑒 (0.062756)𝑡

To determine the number of elephant population in year 2006, t = 2:

𝑃 = 11454𝑒 (0.062756)(2)
P=12986

To predict unknown number of elephant population in year of 2010, t = 6

𝑃 = 11454𝑒 (0.062756)(6)
P=16691

Figure 4: Particular Solution Graph of Elephant Population in Kruger National Park from 2004-2009

By using this particular solution, an exponential graph of the number of elephants over time can be created.
The graph shows the number of elephants increasing over time. The graph was created using Desmos when
entered the equation of P(t) = 11454𝑒 (0.062756)𝑡 . The number of elephants also can be predicted over time and
comparison can be made whether the increasing number of elephants are accurate with the actual number of
elephants and prediction also can be made with the unknown number of elephants in a certain year.

12
 Table 3: Comparison Predicted Number Elephant Population with actual value in Kruger Park, South Africa from
1994-2000

YEAR ELEPHANT PREDICTION OF ELEPHANT

POPULATION POPULATION

1994 7806 7806

1995 8064 8061

1996 8320 8325

1997 8371 8598

1998 8869 8879

1999 9152 9170

2000 - 9470

Table 4: Comparison Predicted Number Elephant Population with actual value in Kruger Park, South Africa from
2004-2010

YEAR ELEPHANT PREDICTION OF ELEPHANT

POPULATION POPULATION

2004 11454 11454

2005 12467 12196

2006 12427 12986

2007 13050 13827

2008 15811 14722

2009 16315 15676

2010 - 16691

The values of the elephant population and the prediction of elephant population based on the particular
solution are not accurate and slightly different from the historical values. In 1996 the prediction of elephants
and the historical value slightly differed by 0.06 %. Meanwhile, in 2006 the number of elephants dropped by
4.5% from the predicted population. In the case of elephants, it is advised to cull entire herds at once. This
prevents calves who are orphaned and parents who are grieving. However, the park or farm often chooses to
kill herd adults and then sell orphans to zoos or circuses. The damage that will happen to Kruger National.
Park if the park’s elephant numbers are not reduced to a level that the habitats can sustainably support.

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FACTOR THAT AFFECT THE POPULATION GROWTH

The main factor that affected the elephant growth is the poaching activities from some irresponsible people.
Poaching means illegally hunting or catching on land that is not one's own or in contravention of official protection.
This action has become worse when they mostly target larger adults with the biggest tusks. It is estimated that between
35,000 and 50,000 African elephants are poached each year to satisfy the global demand – in China and throughout
Southeast Asia, but also in the United States – for their ivory (Margrit, Schwarzenegger, & Blog, 2019). Their tusks are
huge and their gatherings were simpler to discover than lone grown-up guys. Recording the drawn out outcomes of
social interruption brought about by poaching on the African elephant is pivotal to the preservation and the executives
of this species.

Next, the increase of ivory prices influenced more people to start making money by hunting elephants
illegally. In 1970, however, it jumped to $7.44 and went on climbing to a peak of $74.42 in 1978 (Douglas-
Hamilton,1987). These ascents were significantly in abundance of inflation, and when the impacts of
expansion were evacuated, the genuine estimation of ivory was multiple times higher in 1978 than in 1960.
Financial specialists were pulled into ivory as a riches store in a period of high swelling. The outcome has
been to increment motivations to acquire and exchange ivory. The cost increments have worked their way
down the financial chain to the essential maker, the poacher who slaughters elephants.

FACTOR THAT MIGHT AFFECT THE POPULATION GROWTH IN THE FUTURE

There might be increase and decreasing trends in the change of population of African elephants in the
future based on the area. The population increases in ‘protected’ areas which are national parks and reserves
areas. The initial increases are best explained by the widely accepted hypothesis that parks and reserves tend
to attract 'refugee' elephants escaping external harassment or habitat encroachment (Douglas-Hamilton,1987).
Thus, rapid population increases within protected areas which might be interpreted as healthy, growing
elephant populations may in reality represent an early warning of poaching or other disturbances outside the
parks or reserve boundaries. Currently, poaching for ivory is reported as the main cause of the estimated 10
percent annual rate of decrease(Douglas-Hamilton,1987). This would result in a great decrease of the
elephant’s population in the near future.

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2 Task 2 : Numerical Methods (Newton-Raphson Method)

2.1 INTRODUCTION

Deufhard (2012) stated that Newton's method is used to find successively closer approximations to the
roots of a function. In 1600, Francois Vieta designed a similar method like Newton's method which is 43 years
before Newton's birth. Vieta's method would supply one decimal place of the solution per step. His techniques
were just for explaining solutions of second, third and fourth degree. By 1664, Newton had gotten mindful of
Vieta's technique and by 1669 he had improved it by linearizing the arising polynomials. This version of
Newton's method just applies to polynomials and was an improved version of the method developed by Vieta
(Kollerstrom 1992).

The Newton-Raphson method (also known as the Newton method) is a way to quickly find a good
approximation for the root of a real valued 𝑓(𝑥) = 0 function. This uses the principle of being able to estimate
a continuous and differentiable function by a straight line tangent to it.

Suppose you need to find the root of a continuous, differentiable f(x) function, and you know that the
root you are looking for is𝑥 = 𝑥0 . The Newton principle then tells us that the root is a better approximation.
To get the desired accuracy this process can be repeated as many times as possible. In general, for any x-value
𝑥𝑛 , the next value is given by Newton-Raphson method:

𝑓(𝑥𝑛 )
𝑥𝑛+1 = 𝑥𝑛 −
𝑓′(𝑥𝑛 )

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Evidence of what the Newton theory really does:

Figure 5 : Newton’s method

A tangent line has been applied to the f(x) graph at 𝑥 = 𝑥𝑛 . This line has slope 𝑓′(𝑥𝑛 ) and goes through
the point (𝑥𝑛 ,𝑓(𝑥𝑛 )). Hence, the equation of it is 𝑦 = 𝑓′(𝑥𝑛 )(𝑥 − 𝑥𝑛 ) + 𝑓(𝑥𝑛 ) . Thus, the root of this tangent
line can set as 𝑦 = 0 and 𝑥 = 𝑥𝑛+1 for new approximations.

The objective for this project are:

1. To calculate the question given by using Newton-Raphson Method.

2. To use and construct the data in tables using Microsoft Excel.
3. To use and construct the data into a graph using Desmos application.

Scope and Limitation.

Newton's method may not work if there are points of inflection, local maxima or minima around 𝑥0
or the root. Furthermore, this method can only be used to solve single variable nonlinear equations.

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2.2 IMPLEMENTATION

Firstly, open Microsoft Excel to solve the equation given. Draw a table that contains the number of
approximation of x (𝑥𝑛 ), the value of x (x), the original function (f(x)) and the derivative of the function (f’(x)).
1
Next, we need to write the question given, 𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑙𝑛(𝑥 4 ) + 3 𝑒 𝑥 − 4𝑥 and use the Newton-Raphson Method.
4 1
Hence, find the derivative of f(x) which is 𝑓′(𝑥) = 𝑥 + 3 𝑒 𝑥 − 4. Next, decide the most suitable initial

approximation for x which is 𝑥0 and put the value on the first column of the value of x (x). You can directly
insert the calculation of f(x) and f’(x) tables to get the instant calculation that we needed. By using this formula,

𝑓(𝑥 )
𝑥1 = 𝑥0 − 𝑓′(𝑥0 )
0

the value of new x can be calculated by writing the function on the table of 𝑥1. After that, drag the low right
cursor of the table below. Repeat this action for the other tables. Lastly, check the result that we get.

Figure 6: Solving Newton’s Raphson Equation using Microsoft Excel

Table 5: Newton’s method to estimate the root correct to 6 decimal places

𝑥𝑛 𝑥 𝑓(𝑥) 𝑓(𝑥)

𝑥0 -0.553000 0.034151 -11.041533

𝑥1 -0.549907 -0.000062 -11.081623

𝑥2 -0.549913 0.000000 -11.081550

𝑥3 -0.549913 0.000000 -11.081550

𝑥4 -0.549913 0.000000 -11.081550

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 Table 6: The value of approximate root (new x)

𝑥𝑛 new x

𝑥1 -0.549907

𝑥2 -0.549913

𝑥3 -0.549913

𝑥4 -0.549913

2.3 Data Analysis and Discussion

1
Figure 7 : Graph of 𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑙𝑛(𝑥 4 ) + 3 𝑒 𝑥 − 4𝑥

Figure 8: Graph of first and second approximate roots

18
 Figure 9: Graph of second and third approximate roots

Figure 10: Graph of third, fourth and fifth approximate roots

1
The equation 𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑙𝑛(𝑥 4 ) + 3 𝑒 𝑥 − 4𝑥 has a root at x between -2 and 0. Based on Figure 2.3, on the

first iteration, the first approximate root, 𝑥0 is set as -0.553000. A tangent line was drawn on the graph to find
the intercept between the tangent line and x-axis. The intersection point is known as the next approximate root
which is 𝑥1 = −0.549907.The second approximate root,𝑥1 = −0.549907 which is a better approximate than
𝑥0. 𝑥1 is closer to the root than 𝑥0 ,but still not close enough.

By using the iteration procedure, the third approximate root, 𝑥2 is obtained. The value of 𝑥2 is -
0.549913. Therefore, the value of 𝑥2 is closer to the root than the value of 𝑥1. The iteration procedure continues
until the value of 𝑥𝑛 becomes constant to 6 decimal places. Based on Table 2.1, the value of 𝑥3 and 𝑥4 are -
0.549913 which have the same value as 𝑥2 . Therefore, the approximate root is -0.549913 (6 decimal points).

The Newton-Raphson Iteration stopped when the consequence has the same approximate root as the
previous approximate root. When the approximate root reaches a constant value, the approximate root will
become the final approximate root that is close enough to the root.

19
CONCLUSION

Based on this assessment, it can be concluded from Task 1 that elephants are not an endangered species
in Kruger National Park, South Africa. This assessment showed that the elephant population has increased
yearly since 1994. The future value also can be predicted based on the yearly growth. The data then can be
compared for each year to see whether the growth is as expected. If not, the reason must be solved in order to
make sure the upcoming year shows the growth that is expected from. We can also conclude that growth
problems can help us to determine the future data of growth and the past. This is because the data from this
solution have a high accuracy.

As for Task 2, the Newton-Raphson method is very helpful to solve single variable nonlinear
equations. Therefore, by using this method the approximate value of a root that is the closest to the root can
be found. The benefit that can be gained from Task 2 is we are able to learn how to plot Newton-Raphson
graft by using Desmos website.

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BIBLIOGRAPHY

[1] Culling Elephants. (2008, March). Retrieved from https://www.africahunting.com/threads/culling-

elephants.14734/

[2] Douglas-Hamilton, I. (1987). African elephants: population trends and their causes. Oryx, 21(1), 11–24.
doi: 10.1017/s0030605300020433

[3] Fulton, William C., "The population growth and control of African elephants in Kruger National Park,
South Africa:: Modeling, managing, and ethics concerning a threatened species" (2012). All Regis
University Theses. 560. https://epublications.regis.edu/theses/560

[4] Kollerstrom, N. (1992). Thomas Simpson and 'Newton's Method of Approximation': An Enduring Myth.
The British Journal for the History of Science, 25(3), 347-354. Retrieved from
http://dioi.org/kn/newtonapprox.htm

[5] Margrit, Schwarzenegger, A., & Blog, C. S. (2019, February 5). The Impact of Elephant Poaching is
Greater Than We think. Retrieved from https://www.nikela.org/the-impact-of-elephant-poaching-is-
greater-than-we-think/

[6] Meyer,A.(1970,January1).Elephants Forever. Retrieved from

https://www.elephantsforever.co.za/elephant-culling.html

[7] Newton Raphson Method. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://brilliant.org/wiki/newton-raphson-method/

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