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ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE PhormacoEconomics 1997 Jan: II (I): 71>-88

117[}-7tnoJQ7 J(DJHXJ75/S07.00JQ

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Sensitivity Analysis in Health Economic


and Pharmacoeconomic Studies
An Appraisal of the Literature
Karen E. Agro,l Carole A. Bradley,2 Nicole Mittmann,3 Michael Iskedjian,4 A. Lane
Ilersich 5•6 and Thomas R. Einarson 7
1 McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
2 Glaxo Wellcome Canada Inc., Mississauga, Ontario, Canada
3 Department of Pharmacology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
4 Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario. Canada
5 Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
6 Canadian Coordinating Office for Health Technology Assessment, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
7 Faculty of Pharmacy and Department of Clinical Pharmacology, Faculty of Medicine,
University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Summary The objective of this study was to analyse the extent of reporting of sensitivity
analyses in the health economics. medical and pharmacy literature between jour-
nal types and over time.
90 articles were chosen from each of the bodies of literature on health eco-
nomics. medicine and pharmacy. MEDLINE. EMBASE and International Phar-
maceutical Abstracts were searched for English-language economic studies
published between 1989 and 1993.
The studies chosen for inclusion had to be original articles published in one
of the selected journals between January 1989 and December 1993, involving a
comparison between drugs, treatments or services. and evaluating both costs and
outcomes. 123 articles initially met these criteria; however. 16 were inappropri-
ate. 17 were randomised out. leaving 90 studies (73%) that were used (30 from
each literature group). Data were extracted independently by 5 raters using a
validated checklist. Inter-rater reliability was assessed by calculating K.
53 of the 90 articles (59%) conducted sensitivity analyses. 39 (74o/c) stated
explicitly that a sensitivity analysis was being performed; this was noted in the
Methods section of 35 papers (67%).80% of health economics journals. 70% of
medical journals and 20% of pharmacy journals conducted sensitivity analyses.
Despite the fact that all published pharmacoeconomic guidelines suggest the
use of sensitivity analysis. only 59% of studies between 1989 and 1993 did so.
Improvement is required. especially in the pharmacy literature. No time trends
in the conduct of sensitivity analyses were detected. However. the sample may
not have been sufficient to detect such trends. Pharmacoeconomic guidelines
should provide more details on preferred methods of sensitivity analysis and on
desired parameters.
76 Agro e/ al.

A sensitivity analysis is an integral component between journal types and over time. The develop-
of any sound pharmacoeconomic study.[l) It is a ment of a checklist was required to perform this
'process through which the robustness of an eco- analysis. The purpose of the checklist was to iden-
nomic model is assessed by examining the changes tify whether a sensitivity analysis had been con-
in results of the analysis when key variables are ducted, to report on the type of analyses, amI io
varied over a specified range'. (2) document the parameters of the sensitivity analy-
Sensitivity analysis represents a method of test- ses. The checklist was then applied to a selected
ing the validity of statements made from results sample of articles, and descriptive statistics were
that were based on certain assumptions in the phar- compiled comparing results between journal types
macoeconomic study. It is concerned with explor- and over time.
ing the consequences of the uncertainty in both the This paper extends the recent work of Mason
parameter estimations and assumptions made in the and Drummond[IS) and Briggs and Sculpher[16 1 by
pharmacoeconomic model. Sensitivity analyses examining the conduct of sensitivity analysis be-
are advocated in pharmacoeconomic research be- tween 3 journal types (health economic, medicine,
cause a number of assumptions and uncertainties pharmacy) over a pre-specified time period. This
are incorporated into the analysis, and thus the in- paper also adds to the research of Briggs et al. I131
tegrity of the results may be compromised if those by reviewing 2 new methods for the conduct of
assumptions prove to be inaccurate.(3) sensitivity analysis, pharmacoeconomic guideline
Recent pharmacoeconomic guidelines have recommendations on the necessity of sensitivity
analysis, and the advantages and disadvantages of
consistently recommended the use of sensitivity
each sensitivity analysis method.
analysis.l4- l2 ) However, those guidelines have not
specified which method or approach should be em-
Methods
ployed, nor have they indicated the parameters of
the sensitivity analysis. We used a 2-stage approach to examine the phar-
Recently, Briggs et aI.(13) reviewed the areas of macoeconomic and health economic literature.
uncertainty found in an economic study, the poten- First, we developed a checklist as our data collec-
tial statistical analysis required to address these tion instrument. To develop and validate the instru-
areas of uncertainty, and the appropriateness of dif- ment, issues pertaining to pharmacoeconomic
ferent types of sensitivity analysis methods.l 13 ) studies were identified from the literature. Phar-
These areas of uncertainty relate to 4 general com- macoeconomic guidelines were retrieved and re-
ponents, namely: viewed to ascertain their requirements with respect
• the sample data to sensitivity analysis. For the purposes of this re-
• the generalis ability of the results search, pharmacoeconomic guidelines were de-
• the extrapolation of the results fined as documents that outlined the essential ele-
• uncertainty in the analytical methods. ments of a pharmacoeconomic or health economic
In addition, Briggs and colleagues(13) reviewed evaluation. We accepted published guidelines that
4 common sensitivity analysis methods: simple, originated from regulatory agencies, or from indi-
threshold, analysis of extremes and probabilistic vidual authors or groups of authors.
(the Monte Carlo simulation). However, the field
Development of Checklist
of pharmacoeconomics is evolving. Since that re-
view, at least 2 new methods of conducting sensi- Pharmacoeconomic guidelines from both regu-
tivity analysis have been published.[3.l4) latory agencies and individual authors are summa-
The objective of this study was to analyse the rised in table I. While all guidelines that we reviewed
extent of the reporting of sensitivity analyses in the recommended performing a sensitivity analysis,
pharmacoeconomic and health economic literature there was a lack of consistency in identifying both

to Adls International Umlted. All rights reserved. PharmocoEconomlcs 1997 Jon; 11 (1)
Sensitivity Analysis 77

Table I. Summary of the pharmacoeconomic guideline recommendations regarding the use of sensitivity analysis. All guidelines
recommended that a sensitivity analysis should be performed
Guideline Type recommended Variables tested
clinical economic
Regulatory guidelines
Ontariol4] Use of wide confidence limits on utilities; a Measurement techniques Not specified
method to test 'robustness of qualitative used to convert clinical
conclusions', in order to 'identify areas effects into values
where further research is needed to more (quality-adjusted life-years or
precisely estimate the values of those hea~hy year equivalents)
variables to which the resu~ is sensitive'
Canada l5] MonteCario Assumptions Sampling error; assumptions
Australial6] Confidence intervals Assumptions such as Marginal costs as different
outcome estimates; upper proportions of average costs;
and lower confidence lim~s upper and lower confidence limits
Plausible values, including values in the Key parameters; range of Key parameters; range of potential
confidence interval or other statistical potential assumptions assumptions
measure (simple one-way or multi-way
analysis)
Independent authors
Guyatt et a1. 18] Not specified Key parameters Key parameters; medical values
with no substantial evidence of
their true value
Jolicoeur et al. [9] Threshold analysis Key variables; discount rate Key variables
Drummond et 81.1'°] Confidence intervals on cost data from Estimates with imprecision; Estimates with imprecision; value
randomised, controlled clinical trials value judgements or judgements or methodological
methodo[ogical controversy controversy
McGhan & Lewis[l1] On a range of plausible variables (simple Key variables Key variables
analysis)
Garattini et 81.1'2) Simple; full confidence intervals; analysis Efficacy rates Costs as unit costs or volumes;
of extremes method differs if volume is a
deterministic or stochastic variable;
5% discount rate

the preferred sensitivity analysis methods and the These guidelines also provided some indication
parameters on which the analyses should be per- of the variables that should be tested, In general.
formed, Therefore. to generate a meaningful check- the variables suggested were either clinical or eco-
list. we reviewed the strengths and weaknesses of nomic parameters that were critical to the analysis
each sensitivity analysis method (table II).[[3] or were associated with known imprecision. One
With respect to our review of the phar- guideline. the Division of Drug Marketing and
macoeconomic guidelines (table I). it was evident Communications (DDMAC) economic guidelines
that. although all guidelines recommended using a from the US,l2°] was excluded from our analysis
sensitivity analysis. inconsistencies existed re- because the report was unpublished at the time of
garding the type of analysis recommended and on writing this report,
the types of variables that should be tested. Accord- The checklist was then constructed using infor-
ing to the guidelines reviewed. the common types mation from the guidelines. the strengths and
of sensitivity analysis recommended included sim- weakness of the various sensitivity analysis meth-
ple. threshold analysis and confidence intervals. ods. and their application to the different types of
Confidence intervals are recommended for use as health economic study (predictive. prospective and
a plausible range for estimation of parameters in a retrospective). A copy of the checklist appears in
sensitivity analysis. where such data are available. fig. 1.

© Adis Inlemanonal Urnlled. All rights reserved. PharmocoEconomics 1997 Jan; 11 (1)
78 Agro e/ al.

Table II. Methods of conducting a sensitivity analysis: advantages and disadvantages


Method Definition Advantages Disadvantages
Simple
one-way Selecting plausible values for a single Easy to use; flexibility in parameter May be difficult if the variables
parameter choice used are dependent on each other
multi-way Selecting plausible values for a single Easy to use; flexibility in parameter Cumbersome if >2 inputs are
parameter; > 1 variable examined choice varied simultaneousIyl13.1 7J
simultaneouslyl13,
Threshold Varying specific input parameters until a Meaningful when the value of an input Difficult if the variables used are
break-even point is reached 18, variable is unknown, such as the price dependent on each other; used for
of a new drug;113, comparable with single perameters only;
95% CI of parameter as a statistical cumbersome if more than one
test variable is changedI13.17J
Probabilistic Uncertainties In all values and probabilities Easy to use; may be conducted via Assumes parametric distribution,
(i.e. Monte are simultaneously evaluated; a parametric computer program and assumes probability and utility
Carlo) model evaluates over entire range for all distributions are independen~17J
parameters
Analysis of extremes
simple Evaluating extreme estimates from the Useful when the base-case value has Extreme value choices may
base-case analysis;113, commonly referred been estimated by experts, but the approach, but never achieve, the
to as 'worstlbest case analysis' 'distribution' between the outer limits is best/worse case values;113, unable
unknownl131 to assess intermediate values
within the bounds of the besVworse
case scanarios
CI partial Generating Cis from RCTs for input A statistical approach to evaluating the No projection of the confidenca
variables; the bounds of the Cis are not limits on input variables intervals for the input variables
re-entered into the economic evaluation through to the cost-effectiveness
to generate bounds on the economic and cost-benefit ratios etc. Umited
end-points (i.e., no CI calculated for to data generated from RCTs with
cost-effectiveness ratio) single parameter changes only
CI full Generating Cis from RCTs for input A statistical approach to evaluating Umited to data generated from
variables; the bounds of the Cis are the limits on input variables and on RCTs; using Cis to determine
re-entered into the economic evaluation economic end-points; facilitates sample sizes may require the
to generate bounds on the economic sample size calculations that are inclusion of more patients in the
end-points (i.e., a cost-effectiveness ratio needed to show an 'economically RCT, thus exposing increasing
with a CI) important differenca';114. 191increases numbers of patients to a new drug,
objectivity in the decision to adopt simply to obtain economic data;114,
one technology over another!14, single parameter changes only
Rank-order A combination of a CI and threshold Comprehensive (examines all Does not test altemate hypotheses
stability analySis, ROSA provides a plausible range parameters); tests model stability;13' or indirect costs per se; examines
analysis in which inputs and values may be found avoids parameter selection biasl31 single parameters only
(ROSA)13, (CI component); calculates a break-even
point for all inputs. Elasticities test the
stability of the mode~3'
Abbreviations: CI = confidence interval (most often 95%); RCT = randomised controlled trial.

Selection of Literature health economics, medical and pharmacy. The


health economics journals were Pharmaco-
In the second phase of this study, the literature Economics, International Journal of Technology
was analysed using the validated checklist (fig. 1). Assessment in HealthCare and Journal of Health
To facilitate this phase of the research, a literature Economics. The medical journals examined were
sample was identified using the methods described New England Journal of Medicine, Medical Care
by Bradley et aI.l21) These authors chose 3 specific and Journal of the American Medical Association.
journals from the literature in each of 3 fields: From the pharmacy literature, the chosen journals

© Adls International Umlted. All rights reserved. PharmacoEconomics 1997 Jan: 11 (1)
Sensitivity Analysis 79

P/eae Reviewer's initials Article number


ch«:Ic Hi

~""r~
I) What was the type of pharmacoeconomlc atudy?

Cost analysis ~.ll.'


0
0
One group
Two groups ~
'N-
0 More than two groups
Economic analysis ':(i
0 Cost-effectiveness analysis .. ,
0 Cost-benefit analysis
0 Cost-minimisation analysis .,;.
0 Cost-utility analysis

II) What waa the type of study design? .'.

0 Predictive (i.e. modelling, decision tree)


0 Prospective: RCT
0 Prospective: Non-RCT
0 Retrospective '.
0 Mixed (pleaae check off above-mentioned components)
0 Cannot access

e
III) Waa a sensitivity analysis performed?

Yes
0 Explicitly - stated so by the authors
0
0 No
Implicitly - implied by the study
':1
'(,-,
IV) What type of sensitivity analySis waa perfonned? (Check all applicable)

0 Simple '.

0 Threshold
0 Probabilistic (i.e. Monte Carlo method)
Analysis of extremes
0 Confidence intervals (Cls)-Partial: Cis are given for various input variables but the inputs have not been
placed back into the economic or cost analysis to regenerete the economic end-point
D Confidence intervals (Cls)-Full: Cis around an economic end-point i.e. around a CEA ratio
D Cannot assess

V) On what parametenl waa the sensitivity analysis performed? Check all applicable

Inputs-rates
D Success probabilities for the drug in question
D Epidemiologic rates (i.e. prevalence)
D Other, please specify
Inputs-direct costs
D Drugs
D services
D Others, pleaae specify
D Inputs-indirect costs
Please list
Discount rate
D Inputs
D OUtcomes (i.e. OALYs)
0 Cannot assess

I
Fig. 1. Final sensitivity analysis evaluation form. Abbreviations: CEA ~ cost-effectiveness analysis; OALYs ~ quality-adjusted life-years;
RCT ~ randomised controlled trial.

~ Adis In!ema!1onal Umi!ed. All rights reserved. PharmacaEcanamics 1997 Jan; 11 (1)
80 Agrot'tal.

were The Annals of Pharmacotherapy, American Inter-rater reliability was assessed by calculat-
Journal of Health System Pharmacy and Hospital ing 1C between raters for 3 key questions on the
Pharmacy. validated checklist for 10 randomly selected arti-
MEDLINE, EMBASE and International Phar- cles. The 3 key questions were as follows.
macy Abstracts were searched for English-language • What was the type of study design"!
economic studies. Economic studies were defined • Was a sensitivity analysis performed?
as those reports that evaluated the impact of drug • What type of sensitivity analysis was per-
therapy, medical technologies, services or treat-
formed?
ment programmes with respect to both clinical and
The third question comprised a checklist of
economic outcomes.l ll A 5-year time frame was
parts (simple. threshold. probabilistic. analysis of
specified a priori and used, because it represented
a reasonable time period in which to assess changes extremes. confidence intervals - partial, confidence
in publication quality. However, the sample size intervals - full. cannot assess). Agreement was de-
may not have been sufficient to detect time trends. fined as different raters agreeing on all parts of the
Inclusion criteria for studies required that arti- type of analysis.
cles were original research articles published in The rate of agreement (A) was calculated on a
one of the selected journals between January 1989 per question basis by the following equation:
and December 1993, involving a comparison be- A = sum of observed agreementsll: total possi-
tween drugs. treatments or services, and assessing ble agreements.
both costs and outcomes in cost-effectiveness, The total possible agreements per question for
cost-benefit. cost-utility or cost-minimisation stud- 5 raters was n(n-1)/2 = 5(5-1)/2 = 10.
ies. Simple cost analyses, financial feasibility anal-
yses. editorials. commentaries and review articles
Classification of Studies
were excluded. We aimed to randomly select, by
lottery. 30 articles per journal type from the articles
We classified the study designs into either pre-
identified through the literature search.
dictive, prospective or retrospective.l22 ) Predictive
studies involved the use of modelling or decision-
Application of Checklist tree analyses. Prospective trials involved the gen-
eration of costs and/or effects in either a random-
An initial checklist was developed and tested by ised controlled trial or nonrandomised controlled
5 raters on a random selection of 10 papers from trial. Retrospective studies involved the gathering
our sample of 90 articles. From the initial testing. of data on costs and/or effects that had already
the checklist was refined and applied to the same been incurred.
10 articles from the sample. Descriptive statistics were calculated for the 90
We then applied the checklist to the sample of studies. Absolute values and/or percentages were
90 articles. The analysis was performed by 5 stu-
reported for the outcome variables: incidence of
dents with postgraduate degrees in health fields in-
conducting sensitivity analyses, type of economic
cluding I Doctor of Pharmacy candidate, I Doctor
of Philosophy candidate. 2 Master of Science can- analysis performed and type of sensitivity analysis
didates. and I Master of Science graduate (3 of performed. Once the studies that performed a sen-
these individuals were registered pharmacists). sitivity analysis had been identified. this sample
Raters underwent 30 minutes of formal (content) was analysed in order to determine the section of
instruction before validation of the checklist and I the paper in which the authors first mentioned their
hour of formal training before the evaluation of plan to conduct a sensitivity analysis (Methods,
reliability. Results or Discussion).

II:> Adls International Umlted. All rights reseIVed. PharmacoEconomlcs 1997 Jon; 11 (1)
Sensitivity Analysis 81

Table III. Sample selection of articles for literature analysis Literature Analysis
(reproduced from Bradley et al.. 1211 with permission)
Selection step _J_ou_r_na_l...!.ty-'-pe_ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
health medical pharmacy total
Results of the literature search and sample se-
economics lection are presented in a previous publication by
Met initial inclusion 45 38 40 123 Bradley and colleagues.l 21J Initially. 123 articles
criteria met the criteria, but 16 were inappropriate and 17
Inappropriate after 5 7 4 16
were randomised out (table III). Thus. 90 articles
review"
Randomised outb 10 6 17
were examined: 30 from health economics jour-
Final sample of 30 30 30 90 nals, 30 from medical journals and 30 from phar-
articles rated macy journals (appendices A, B and C).
a Appeared to meet criteria on initial examination. but on closer Data on study type were gathered through the
scrutiny. proved not to meet criteria because they were not
original articles, not cost-analysis studies, did not use health checklist (fig. 1). The majority of the 90 articles
outcomes. or involved discounting only. were either predictive [n = 39 (43%»). retrospec-
b A sample size of 30 per joumal type was decided a priori; tive [n = 24 (27%») or prospective nonrandomised
articles were randomly deleted to arrive at that total.
controlled trials [n = 20 (22%)]. The remainder in-
cluded prospective randomised controlled trial
studies [n = II (12%»), or those of mixed design [n
Results
=5 (6%)] (table IV).
When types of economic analyses were re-
viewed with respect to journal type. health eco-
Checklist Reliability
nomics and medical journals utilised the predictive
The inter-rater agreement of the 5 raters on eval- model (i.e. decision-tree analyses) more frequently
uating the level of reporting of sensitivity analyses than the other designs. having 18 (60%) and 16
in the 10 pharmacoeconomic articles (according to (53%) occurrences of the predictive design, re-
the question 'Was a sensitivity analysis perfonnedT) spectively (table IV). Pharmacy journals generally
was 82%, while 1( was 0.75 [standard error (SE) = approached their studies using the prospective
O.072J. The respective agreement and 1( for the nonrandomised controlled trial or retrospective de-
question on the type of study design were 84% and signs. with 13 (43%) and 11 (37%) instances. re-
0.76 (SE =0.055), and for the type of sensitivity spectively.
analysis performed were 72% and 0.69 (SE = From the sample of 90 papers examined, 53
0.055). Therefore, the calculated coefficients (59%) of the articles conducted a sensitivity anal-
showed acceptable agreement among raters. Raters ysis. Of the 53 articles that conducted sensitivity
then analysed the balance of the 90 articles inde- analyses, 39 (74%) of the authors stated explicitly
pendently. that a sensitivity analysis was being perfonned.

Table IV. Proportion of models used in economic analyses'


Joumaltype Predictiveb Prospective randomised Prospective nonrandomised RetrospectiveC Mixed"
controlled trial controlled trial
Health economics 18 6 3 5 2
Medicine 16 3 4 8
Pharmacy 5 2 13 11 2
Totale 39(43%) 11 (12%) 20 (22%) 24 (27%) 5(6%)
a More than 1 model was used in some papers; 1 paper was not assessable.
b Modelling or decision-tree analyses.
c For example. retrospective case analyses or retrospective chart reviews.
d A combination of the different model types.

(i;; Adis Intemotional Umited. All rlghts reserved. PharmacoEconomlcs 1997 Jan; 11 (1)
82 Agroet al.

Table V. Incidence 01 sensitivity analysis conduct by joumaJ type and over lime (figures in parentheses are percentages)
Journal type 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Total"
Health economics 010 (0) 414 (100) 314 (75) 9112 (75) 8110 (80) 24130 (80)
Medicine 314 (75) 7/9 (78) 617 (86) 314 (75) 416 (67) 23130 (n)
Pharmacy 0110 (0) 0i6 (0) 1/6 (17) 516 (83) 012 (0) 6/30 (20)
Total 3115 (20) 11119 (58) 10117 (59) 17122 (n) 11117 (65) 53190 (59)
a X2 = 26.33, dI = 2, P < 0.001; pharmacy journals versus health economic and medicine journals.

When the reporting of sensitivity analysis was Two areas - compliance rates and test charac-
evaluated by journal type (table V), 80% of health teristics (e.g. laboratory costs, test sensitivity and
economics and 77% of medical journal articles had specificity) - were noted by the raters as areas on
conducted sensitivity analyses in their phar- which analyses had been commonly conducted.
macoeconomic or health economic studies, while
only 20% of pharmacy journal articles had done so. Discussion
There were no significant trends with respect to
sensitivity analysis reporting over time. Although This study evaluated the extent of sensitivity
there appeared to be an upward trend in sensitivity analysis reporting in the pharmacoeconomic liter-
analysis reporting for the entire sample, the sample ature by journal type and over time. The inter-rater
size may not have been sufficient to detect time reliability on 3 key questions met our pre specified
trends. value, which indicated that the raters were judging
In the assessment of the type of sensitivity anal- the articles in a similar fashion. The 1C values were
ysis performed, the majority of studies [n = 37 considered acceptable for our purposes.
(41%)] used a simple sensitivity analysis tech- Approximately 59% of the sample of90 articles
nique. Threshold determination was used in 10 conducted a sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analy-
ses were more often conducted in health economic
(11 %), analysis of extremes in 9 (10%) and partial
(80%) and medical journals (77%) compared with
confidence intervals in 6 (7%) (table VI).
pharmacy journals (20%). This finding may have
We noted the first mention in each paper of ei-
been a reflection of the editorial policies, knowl-
ther the plan to conduct a sensitivity analysis or the
edge and experience of those individuals associ-
presentation of the final results of a sensitivity
ated with health economic and medical journals.
analysis, whichever appeared first. Of the 53 pa-
The frequency of use of sensitivity analyses in
pers that conducted a sensitivity analysis, 29 (55%) pharmacy journals was significantly lower than the
indicated their plan to conduct a sensitivity analy- other 2 (table V). Based on our findings, there ap-
sis in the Methods section of the article, while in pears to be a need for increased use of sensitivity
23 (43%), this information appeared in the Results analyses in future pharmacoeconomic and health
section. economic studies, particularly in the pharmacy lit-
Sensitivity analyses were generally conducted erature.
on inputs such as rates (e.g. epidemiological, suc- The relatively low frequency of sensitivity anal-
cess probabilities) and direct costs (e.g. drugs, ser- ysis was identified as a deficiency in the literature.
vices). Indirect costs and discount rates on inputs Of those studies that did perform a sensitivity anal-
and outcomes were also commonly analysed. Be- ysis, as many as 14 (26%) did not explicitly state
cause raters were asked to specify the exact param- that such an analysis had been planned or was being
eters on which the sensitivity analysis was con- conducted by the authors. In light of the fact that
ducted, we were able to identify less prominent, but all pharmacoeconomic guidelines to date have sug-
nonetheless emerging, parameters on which sensi- gested the inclusion of sensitivity analysis, these
tivity analysis was being conducted in the sample. analyses should be included and explicitly stated

© Adls InternaUonal Umlted. All rights reserved. PharmacoEconomics 1997 Jan: 11 (1)
Sensitivity Analysis 83

as having been planned in the Methods section of There appears to be an appropriate upward trend
future studies. This addition would assist the in the incidence of sensitivity analysis in recent
reader in assessing the quality of the evaluation as years. However, there were few data points, since
well as in interpreting and extrapolating the results. only 5 years were covered in our study, and no time
Of the studies that conducted a sensitivity anal- trends in the conduct of sensitivity analyses were
ysis, 29 (55'k) papers indicated their intention to detected. There were too few time points after the
do so in the Methods section of the paper. In some release of the pharmacoeconomic guidelines to
cases. it was difficult to assess where the sensitivity perform an analysis to measure their impact.
analysis was first mentioned in the body of the pa- One hypothesis to explain these results is the
per. This barrier was encountered in some articles timing of the literature with respect to the release
found in the journals Medical Care and Interna- of the guidelines. The literature reviewed in this
tional Journal of Technology Assessment In study was published between January 1989 and
Healthcare, because those journals did not have a December 1993. The regulatory guidelines were
Methods section per se. Perhaps journals need to published between 1992 and 1995. while the inde-
ensure that such important information is not omit- pendent author guidelines were published between
ted from the Methods section of their manuscripts, 1986 and 1993. Therefore. based on the time frame
or at least be added as a requirement before accep- used. most of the studies in our sample were pub-
tance of the manuscript by the journal. lished before the release of the pharmacoeconomic
The simple sensitivity analysis method was em- guidelines. An evaluation of the impact of the
ployed most frequently. The appropriateness of the guidelines would require a time series comparing
widespread use of the simple analysis methodol- the situation before with that after release of the
ogy is unknown, given the lack of direct compara- guidelines. Conducting a time series was beyond
tive data using different methodologies. However, the scope of the present research, but would be a
based on the known advantages and disadvantages worthwhile endeavour. As a second hypothe-
of the different sensitivity analysis methods, no sis. it is possible that sensitivity analyses
one method seems to be ideal for all purposes. To were performed. but not reported. Finally, a third
date. rank-order stahility analysis (ROSA pi is the hypothesis could be related to the inadequacies
most comprehensive method available. but re- of the current methods and the present lack of one com-
quires the addition of a Monte Carlo simulation[l7j prehensive sensitivity analysis method. In the fu-
in order to cover alternative hypotheses that are not ture, it may be useful to develop a sensitivity anal-
addressed with ROSA alone. In the future. re- ysis method that could be used for all variables and
searchers may wish to use more than one method with any study design. Alternatively. a set of guide-
in a particular pharmacoeconomic study. in order lines could be developed indicating the preferred
to compensate for the deficiencies in each method. approach for various types of studies/analyses.
Further research is necessary to prospecti vely There was also a high degree of inconsistency
compare the effects of different combinations of in the parameters on which the sensitivity analyses
sensitivity analysis methods. were conducted. This variability between studies

Table VI. Type of sensitivity analysis performed (figures in parentheses are percentages)
Joumaltype Simple Threshold Probabilistic Analysis of Confidence intervals Cannot Total
extremes partial full assess
Health economics 15/30 (SO) 6/30 (20) 3/30 (10) 7/30 (23) 3/30 (10) 3/30 (10) 2130 (7) 39/30
Medicine 19/30 (63) 4/30 (13) 1/30 (3) 2130 (7) 1/30 (3) 0/30 (0) 1/30 (3) 28130
Pharmacy 3/30 (10) 0/30 (0) 0/30 (0) 1130 (3) 2130 (7) 0/30 (0) 0/30 (0) 6/30
Total 37/90 (41) 10/90 (11) 4190 (4) 9/90 (10) 6/90 (7) 3/90 (3) 3/90 (3) 72190 (80)

I&; Adis IntemaHonol Umited. All rights reserved. PharmacoEconomics 1997 Jan; 11 (1)
84 Agro et al.

increases the heterogeneity of the research. Of different inputs on the cost-effectiveness ratios. In
those parameters chosen. success rates were one of the future, pharmacoeconomic guidelines should
the more common parameters examined. However. identify the parameters on which an analysis
it was not clear from the studies whether the suc- should be conducted, given a certain study design.
cess rates were generated from intention-to-treat or Such guidance would assist thc uscrs of pharo
per-protocol analyses. The difference in success macoeconomic studies in achieving consistent
rates between these 2 study designs may have had methodology across studies, on which they could
an impact on the overall results of the economic base policy decisions.
study. II) keeping with the goal of transparency in One aspect not examined in our checklist was
research. such information should be stated explic- the use of sensitivity analysis versus subgroup
itly by the authors of a pharmacoeconomic study. analyses. Subgroup analyses seek to identify
In addition. regulatory agencies and individual au- groups to whom the results apply. Subgroup anal-
thors of pharmacoeconomic guidelines need to ad- yses provide insight into the generalisability of the
dress this issue and determine on what parameters results and the extrapolation of the findings to
sensitivity analyses should be conducted and what specified patient populations. On the other hand.
sensitivity analysis methods should be used. Also. sensitivity analyses address the validity of the data.
the quality of sensitivity analyses is extremely im- They answer the question 'Are the results true or
portant. Further research should address the issue artifactual?,. Both subgroup and sensitivity analy-
of qUality. sis should be identified a priori and not applied a
With respect to the pharmacoeconomic and posteriori. Future pharmacoeconomic guidelines
health economic guidelines. limited information must address subgroup analysis and differentiate it
has been provided regarding which sensitivity from sensitivity analysis.
analysis method should be used. This variability A need exists to develop pharmacoeconomic
observed between the guidelines illustrates the guidelines that incorporate all aspects of sensitivity
need for further research in the area of sensitivity analyses, which can be accepted by all parties (gov-
ernment, industry and academia). A mechanism
analysis. Consensus may not be required on which
must be in place to update the guidelines on a reg-
type of test should be universally employed, but
ular basis. given the emergence of new methodol-
rather on which type of analysis should be used for
ogies in the developing field of health economic
certain study types or variables/uncertainty being
and pharmacoeconomic analysis.
tested. Briggs and colleagues (13 ) have summarised
the types of test that might be used to deal with
different types of uncertainty (data variability,
Conclusions
generalisability, extrapolation, analytical method).
Perhaps the authors of future pharmacoeconomic
guidelines or updates of current guidelines could This research has shown that a large number of
consider this information. pharmacoeconomic guidelines recommend em-
Similarly, as illustrated by the guidelines, re- ploying sensitivity analysis, but only 59% of the
searchers in this field have not agreed on which studies in our sample actually conducted such an
variables the sensitivity analysis should be con- analysis. Study authors need to pay close attention
ducted. Jacobs and coworkers (23 ) commented that to conducting sensitivity analyses in order to help
researchers and authorities should reconsider the verify the validity of pharmacoeconomic research
use of sensitivity analyses and decide whether results. Regulatory agencies, industry and acade-
these should be used to address uncertainty in fun- mia need to update their guidelines according to the
damental principles broadly or whether they should results of new methods of conducting sensitivity
be applied only to examine the impact of varying analyses.

© Adls Intematlonal Umlted. All rights reserved. PharmacoEconomics 1997 Jan: 11 (1)
Sensitivity Analysis 85

Appendix A A 18. Moller G. Goldie I. Jonsson E. Hospital care versus home


care for rehabilitation after hip replacement. Int J Technol
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A I. Bergemann R. Brandt A. Siegrist W. Cost-effectiveness resource and lost labour costs of migraine headache in the US.
study of lipid lowering therapy in hyperlipoproteinaemia type PharmacoEconomics 1992: 2: 67-76
lib and type IV (Fredrickson). PhannacoEconomics 1993; 3: AlO. Pashko S. Johnson DH. Potential cost savings of oral ver-
131-9 sus intravenous etoposide in the treatment of small cell lung
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analysis of epoctin usage for patients with AIDS. Phar- All. Rutten-van Malken MPMH. Van Doorslaer EKA, Jansen
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438-2 70
A4. de Lissovoy G, Elixhauser A. Luce BR, et a!. Cost-analysis A22. SCOll WG. SCOll HM. Annual costs of benign prostatic
hyperplasia in New Zealand. PharmacoEconomics 1993; 4:
of imipenem-cilastatin versus clindamycin with tobramycin
455-68
in the treatment of acute intra-abdominal infection. Phar-
A23. Scott WG, Tilyard MW, Dovey SM. et al. Roxithromycin
macoEconomics 1993; 4; 203-14
versus cefaclor in lower respiratory tract infection: a general
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practice pharmacoeconomic study. PharmacoEconomics
the screening and treatment of diabetic retinopathy: what are
1993; 4: 122-30
the costs of underutilization') Int J Technol Assess Health
Al4. Scott TE. Jacoby I. Clinical decision analysis as a means
Care 1992; 8: 694-707
of technology assessment. Int J Technol Assess Health Care
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of symptomatic cholelithiasis in France. Int J Technol Assess A25. Sesso R. Eisenberg JM. Stabile e. et a!. Cost-effectiveness
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A 12. Johannesson M. Wikstrand J. Jonsson B. et al. Cost-effec-
tiveness of antihypertensive treatment: metoprolol versus thi- Appendix B
azide diuretics. PharmacoEconomics 1993: 3: 30-44 Papers from medical journals that were in-
A 13. Johannesson M. Economic evaluation of hypertension cluded in the study:
treatment. Int J Technol Assess Health Care 1992: 8: j06-23
B I. Appel U. Steinberg EP. Powe NR. et al. Risk reduction
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A 16. Jonsson B. Haglund U. Cost-effectiveness of misoprostol promote cancer screening: how feasible is wide-scale imple-
in Sweden. Int J Technol Assess Health Care 1992: 8: 234-44 mentation" Med Care 1990: 28: 1005-2
A17. Lynch A. Malek M. Davey PO. et a!. Costing wound in- B4. Brignoli Gable e. Sedory Holzer S. Engelhart L. et a!.
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163-70 JAMA 1990: 264: 2910-5

'" Adis Intema~onal limited. All righls reserved. PharmacoEconomocs 1997 Jan: 11 (1)
86 Agro e/ al.

B5. Buhaug H, Skjeldestad FE, Backe B, et aI. Cost effective- elderly patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction.
ness of testing for chlamydial infections in asymptomatic N Engl J Med 1992; 327: 7-13
women. Med Care 1989; 27: 833-41 B24. Mast EE, Berg JL, Hanrahan LP, et .1. Risk factors for
B6. Castellano AR, Nettleman MD. Cost and benefit of second- measles in a previously vaccinated population and cost-effec-
ary prophylaxis for pneumocystis carinii pneumonia. JAMA tiveness of revaccination strategies. JAM A 1990; 264: 2529-
1991; 266: 820-4 33
B7, Chalfin DB, Holbein EM, Gein AM, et al. Cost-effective- B25. Mohle-Boetani JC, Schuchat A, Plik'ytis BD, et .1. Com-
ness of monoclonal antibodies to gram-negative endotoxin in parison of prevention strategies for neonatal group B strepto-
the trealment of gram-negative sepsis in ICU patients. JAMA coccal infection: a population-based economic analysis.
1993; 269: 249-54 JAMA 1993; 270: 1442-8
B8. Cohen IL, Lambrinos J, Fein IA. Mechanical ventilation for B26. Schapira DV, Studnicki J, Brodham DO, et al. Intensive
the elderly patient in intensive care: incremental changes and care, survival, and expense of treating critically ill cancer pa-
benefits. JAMA 1993; 269: 1025-9 tients. JAMA 1993; 269: 783-6
B9. Cummings SR, Rubin SM, Oster G. The cost-effectiveness B27. Schulman KA, Glick HA, Rubin H, et al. Cost-effective-
of counseling smokers to quit. JAM A 1989; 261: 75-9 ness of HA-IA monoclonal antibody for gram-negative sep-
BID. Eckman MH, Beshansky JR, Durand-Zaleski I, et al. An- sis: economic assessment of a new therapeutic agent. JAMA
ticoagulation for noncardiac procedures in patients with pros- 1991; 266: 3466-71
thetic heart valves: does low risk mean high cost? JAMA B28. Schulman KA, Kinosian B, Jacobson TA, et al. Reducing
1990; 263: 1513-21 high blood cholesterol level with drugs; cost effectiveness of
B II. Eckman MH, Levine HJ, Pauker SG. Effect of laboratory pharmacologic management. JAMA 1990; 264: 3025-3
variation in the prothrombin-time ratio on the results of oral 829. Soghikian K, Casper SM, Fireman BH, et al. Home blood
anti-coagulant therapy. N Engl J Med 1993; 329: 696-702 pressure monitoring: effect on use of medical services and
B12. Edelson IT, Weinstein MC, Tosteson ANA, et al. Long- medical care costs. Med Care 1992; 30: 855-65
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mild to moderate hypertension. JAMA 1990; 263: 407-13 review reduce unnecessary care and contain costs? Med Care
B 13. Edelson IT, Tosteson AN, Sax P. Cost-effectiveness of 1989; 27: 632-47
misoprostol for prophylaxis against nonsteroidal anti-inflam-
matory drug-induced gastrointestinal tract bleeding. JAMA
1990; 264: 41-7 AppendixC
B14. Ehreth J, Chapko M, Hedrick Sc. Comparison of uti liz a- Papers from pharmacy journals that were in-
tion and cost among contract adult day health care, VA adult cluded in the study:
health care, and customary care. Med Care 1993; 31 (9 C I. Barriere SL. Formulary evaluation of second-generation
Suppl.): SS83-93 cephamycin derivatives using decision analysis. Am J Hosp
B 15. Finkler MD, Wirtschafter DO. Cost-effectiveness and ob- Pharm 1991; 48: 2146-50
stetric services. Med Care 1991; 29: 951-63 C2. Calvo MV, Pilar del Val M, Mar Alvarez M, et al. Decision
B 16. Garber AM, Fenerty JP. Costs and benefits of prenatal analysis to assess cost-effectiveness of low-osmolality con-
screening for cystic fibrosis. Med Care 1991; 29: 473-89 trast medium for intravenous urography. Am J Hosp Pharm
B17. Goldman L, Weinstein MC, Goldman PA, et aI. Cost-ef- 1992; 49: 577-84
fectiveness of HMG-CoA reductase inhibition for primary C3. Chin A, Gill MA, Ito MK, et al. Cost analysis of two
and secondary prevention of coronary heart disease. JAMA c1indamycin dosing regimens. DlCP Ann Pharmacother 1989;
1991; 265: 1145-51 23: 980-3
B 18. Hayashida M, Alterman AL, Mclellan AT, et al. Compar- C4. Chin A, Gill MA,lto MK, et al. A cost comparison of intra-
ative effectiveness and costs of inpatient and outpatient de- muscular versus intravenous imipenem. Hosp Pharm 1989;
toxification of patients with mild-to-moderate alcohol 24: 905-9
withdrawal syndrome. N Engl J Med 1989; 320: 358-65 C5. Colburn PA, Carver PA, Montgomery PA, et al. Appropriate
B19. Hillman BJ, Joseph CA, Mabry MR, et al. Frequency and but not cost effective ceftazidime use in a university hospital.
costs of diagnostic imaging in office practice, a comparison Hosp Pharm 1989; 24: 911-4, 16, 28
of self-referring and radiologist-referring physicians. N Engl C6. Cooke J, Cairns CJ, Tillotson GS, et al. Comparative clini-
J Med 1990; 323: 1604-8 cal, microbiologic, and economic audit of the use of oral
B20. Hillner BE, Smith TJ, Desch CEo Efficacy and cost-effec- ciprofloxacin and parenteral antimicrobials. Ann Phar-
tiveness of autologous bone marrow transplantation in meta- macother 1993; 27: 785-9
static brea~t cancer. JAM A 1992; 267: 2055-61 C7. Cramer R, Wright C. Changing physician prescribing habits
B21. Hillner BE, Smith J1. Efficacy and cost effectiveness of through a cost-effective first generation cephalosporin formu-
adjuvant chemotherapy in women with node-negative breast lary. Hosp Pharm 1989; 24: 33-8
cancer: a decision-analysis model. N Engl J Med 1991; 324: C8. Destache CJ, Meyer SK, Padomek MT, et aI. Impact of a
160-8 clinical pharmacokinetic service on patients treated with
B22. Kay BJ, Share DA, Jones K, et al. Process, costs, and aminoglycosides for gram-negative infections. DICP Ann
outcomes of community-based prenatal care for adolescents. Pharmacother 1989; 23: 33-8
Med Care 1991; 29: 531-42 C9. Goldman MP. Ciprofloxacin drug utilization review and
B23. Krunlholz HM, Pasternak RC, Weinstein MC, et al. Cost prospective drug use evaluation. DICP Ann Pharmacother
effectiveness of thrombolytic therapy with streptokina~e in 1990; 24: 82-6

© Adls Intemational Umlted. All rights reserved. PharmacoEconomics 1997 Jan: 11 (1)
Sensitivity Analysis 87

CIO. Grasela TH. Paladino JA. Schentag JJ. et al. Clinical and C29. Taylor JT, Kathman MS. Documentation of cost savings
economic impact of oral ciprofJoxacin as follow-up to paren- from decentralized clinical pharmacy services at a commu-
teral antibiotics. DICP Ann Pharmacother 1991; 25: 857-62 nity hospital. AmJ Hosp Pharm 1991; 48: 1467-70
CII. Moran LJ. Carey P, Johnson CA. Cost-effectiveness of C30. Wang Jc, Conly JM, Shafran SD. Appropriateness of met-
epoetin alfa therapy for anemia of end-stage renal disease. ronidazole use in a teaching hospital. Am J Hosp Pharrn 1989;
Am J Hosp Pharm 1992: 49: 1451-4 46: 1385-9
C 12. Hatoum HT. Microcost analysis of inpatient dispensing
and administration of oral solids. Am J Hosp Pharm 1990: 47:
8()(1-S
Acknowledgements
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This project is a research initiative through the Doctor of
Hosp Pharm 1990; 47: 572-8 Phannacy programme. Faculty of Pharmacy. University of
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