Caroline Fettes

Dr. Harleman

POLS 3000

19 September 2022

Literature Review: Effects of Extreme Weather on Public Opinion on Climate Policy

Section I: Factors Influencing Public Opinion on Climate Policy

The impacts of climate change are complex and far-reaching; consequently, the variables

which play a part in determining citizens’ support – or lack thereof – for comprehensive climate

policy mirror such complexity. A large body of literature seeks to examine these variables. A lack

of understanding of climate science has been studied as a contributing factor in public opinion;

according to one paper, the sheer scope of the issue is too enormous for the average civilian to

comprehend on a deep enough level to compel the desire for policy initiatives (Weber & Stern,

2011). American political polarization another such factor; an analysis found that experts

characterize polarization as “the most significant obstacle to bringing about a social consensus on

climate change” (Guber, 2017). With such emphasis on party affiliation, Guber’s article left little

room for other explanations to emerge – while there is certainly a strong party divide on the subject,

this research is not causal. A similar study, published by the Review of Policy Research, presented

a similar issue; results indicated that liberal, ecologically minded respondents were significantly

more likely to support climate policy initiatives (Stoutenborough et al., 2014), with little discussion

on what underlying factors are involved in party affiliation.

 Demographic patterns, such as education level, age, geographic location, and

socioeconomic status, are also broadly aligned with both parties; this may be a provide a more

accurate overview, as lesser-educated individuals may not possess the research skills to understand

what is and isn’t quality science, and those in a lower income bracket may simply be too

preoccupied with their own living to dedicate additional time and effort to climate activism, or

may worry that climate policies may increase taxes and jeopardize their financial situations.

This issue is more thoroughly discussed in a sociological study, which found that over a

quarter of variance in support for climate policy was accounted for by social characteristics (Dietz

et al., 2007). Researchers concluded that wealthier and younger individuals did tend to more

frequently support climate policy initiatives than their low-income or older counterparts.

Curiously, education level was not found to have a statistically significant effect on perceptions of

climate policy. Age was also found to play a key role in a study performed by the Pew Research

Center; 78% of participants in the Millennial generation or younger indicated support for climate

initiatives regarding clean energy, while only 61% of Generation X participants and 53% of those

in the Post-World War 2 generation or older did the same. This study also revealed that geographic

location affects an individual’s support for climate policy. Respondents in coastal areas were more

likely to support climate policy than those living further inland (Funk & Hefferson, 2019), which

is quite interesting considering that respondents who reported to be impacted by extreme heat tend

to live within the Midwest and Rocky Mountain regions, and reported to be, in broad terms, less

interested in pursuing climate action.

Section II: An Overview of Similar Literature

A subset of this literature has developed to answer questions pertaining to the specific

effects that extreme weather events have on public opinion of climate policy. The results of these
studies have differed widely. One study found that support for climate change adaptation policies

displayed a modest yet universal increase across all models after experiencing extreme weather

events within the timeframe of one month (Ray et al., 2017); it is prudent to note, however, that

this study was rather generous in its definition of “extreme weather”, including such phenomena

as dense or freezing fog and rip currents. While the occurrences of these conditions are certainly

affected by climate change, I would hesitate to classify them in the same category as such events

as hurricanes, coastal flooding, and excessive heat, which have much more pronounced impacts

on human life. I would be skeptical of the inclusion of these weather events, but the number of

respondents who experienced these events was relatively low compared to larger scale events and

does not have a disproportionate influence on findings.

Despite my critique, these findings are consistent with several other similar studies.

Another study reported a positive correlation between the degree of perceived harm suffered by

respondents in extreme weather events and support for climate policy, yet interestingly found no

statistically significant link between the overall ZIP code of the impacted areas and opinion of

climate policy (Zanocco et al., 2019). Researchers were careful to note that areas of great impact

often had higher population densities, which correlates to a larger percentage of Democrat

respondents, who are generally more likely than Republicans to express support for climate policy.

Still, after controlling for party orientation, these findings held true. To corroborate the hypothesis

connecting heightened extreme weather events with heightened policy support, a recent study from

the Harvard School of Public Health found a statistically significant difference between

respondents who did and did not experience extreme weather events and their engagement in civics

and politics in effort to limit climate change – 27% of those affected by extreme weather reported

such participation, as opposed to only 8% of nonaffected respondents (Harvard University, 2022).

 That being said, a number of related studies have reported little to no significant correlation

between these two variables. An article found a limited positive correlation between extreme

weather and climate policy support but concluded that partisanship far outweighs the effect of the

weather events on an individual’s opinions (Konisky et al., 2015). This sentiment was echoed in a

different study, which attempted to find a link between extreme weather events and changes in

local climate policies, but recorded no such connection (Howe, 2021). An article published in the

Oxford University Press ended with a relatively inconclusive result, stating that the relationship

between weather and climate policy perceptions is “multidirectional” - researchers observed that

some skew existed in this study due to potential underreporting of extreme weather by climate

change skeptics (Borick & Rabe, 2016). Researchers offered the motivated reasoning theory as a

mechanism by which skeptics may inaccurately report weather conditions to fit a specific

preconceived belief system or ideology; regardless of reporting tendencies, however, a separate

study contended that 85% of Americans have experienced an extreme weather event of some type

(Yale University, 2013).

A few researchers have put forth reasoning behind the disconnect between the experience

of extreme weather and continued indifference about climate change. In a 2020 study, it was

concluded that residents may not be aware of the impact that climate change has on increasingly

frequent and intense extreme weather, and thus would not express raised concerns (Motta). The

findings of a 2021 study, while contradicting Motta’s results, noted that extreme weather did

increase concerns for climate policy, but not enough to have an impact on local policies (Giodorno

et al.). In a previous study by Zanocco et al., performed in 2018, researchers found that only a

minority of participants were more concerned with climate policy post-event, even when responses

showed that they were personally affected by an extreme weather event (Zanocco et al.). This
research was geared towards only four case studies (two wildfires and two tornadoes), which

researchers pointed out as a potential obstacle to larger scope conditions. Each case study was

located in a different region, though, so findings are not exclusive to the specific sociopolitical

attributes of a single place.

With such varied results in literature, my goal in performing this study is to provide more

detail on the particular effects of wildfires and hurricanes. Most studies of this nature have included

a broad variety of extreme weather; this could water down the stronger influences of the

aforementioned events, both large-scale and associated with high levels of property damage and

loss of life which may have a more pronounced impact on policy perceptions. As opposed to

conditions such as dense fog or rip currents, hurricanes and wildfires can result in calamitous

flooding, air pollution, and breakdown of normal life in evacuations or strandedness (among other

detriments), all of which leave a far greater psychological impact on those affected than a minor

inconvenience would. In this study, I will also examine the timeframe in which post-event climate

policy support is strongest, and if applicable, how quickly this support returns to normal as the

shock of the event fades. The findings of this research will help to shed light on the factors

surrounding public support for climate policy and open up new research avenues on how to

effectively translate these effects onto the policy agenda.

 Works Cited

Borick, Christopher P., and Barry G. Rabe. 2017. “Personal Experience, Extreme Weather
Events, and Perceptions of Climate Change.”
https://oxfordre.com/climatescience/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.001.0001/acr
efore-9780190228620-e-311.

Dietz, Thomas, Amy Dan, and Rachel Shwom. 2007. “Support for Climate Change Policy:
Social Psychological and Social Structural Influences.” Rural Sociology 72(2): 185–214.

Funk, Cary, and Meg Hefferson. November 2. “U.S. Public Views on Climate and Energy.”
https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2019/11/25/u-s-public-views-on-climate-and-
energy/ (September 21, 2022).

Giordono, Leanne, Alexander Gard-Murray, and Hillary Boudet. 2021. “From Peril to Promise?
Local Mitigation and Adaptation Policy Decisions after Extreme Weather.” Current
Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 52: 118–24.

Guber, Deborah Lynn. 2017. “Partisan Cueing and Polarization in Public Opinion About Climate
Change.”

Harvard University T. H. Chan School of Public Health. 2022. “The Impact of Extreme Weather
on Views About Climate Policy in the United States.” https://s3.us-west-
2.amazonaws.com/secure.notion-static.com/c94c16bf-d3b0-4021-8f20-
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disposition=filename%20%3D%22rwjf468968%2520%282%29.pdf%22&x-
id=GetObject (September 21, 2022).

Howe, Peter. 2021. “Extreme Weather Experience and Climate Change Opinion.” Current
Opinion in Behavioral Science 42: 127–31.

Konisky, David, Llewelyn Hughes, and Charles Kaylor. 2015. “Extreme Weather Events and
Climate Change Concerns.” Climactic Change 134: 533–47.

Motta, Matt. 2020. “Is Climate Change Changing Minds? Limited Effects of the Physical
Environment on Climate Policy Opinion in the United States.”
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3531194 (September 21, 2022).

Ray, Aaron, Llewelyn Hughes, David Konisky, and Charles Kaylor. 2017. “Extreme Weather
Exposure and Support for Climate Change Adaptation.” Global Environmental Change
46: 104–13.
Shao, Wanyun. 2017. “Weather, Climate, Politics, or God? Determinants of American Public
Opinions toward Global Warming.” Environmental Politics 26(1): 71–96.

Stoutenborough, James W., Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo, and Arnold Vedlitz. 2014. “Public
Support for Climate Change Policy: Consistency in the Influence of Values and Attitudes
Over Time and Across Specific Policy Alternatives.” Review of Policy Research 31(6):
555–83.

Weber, Elke, and Paul Stern. 2011. “Public Understanding of Climate Change in the United
States.” The American Psychologist 66(4): 315–28.

Yale University. 2013. Extreme Weather and Climate Change in the American Mind. Yale
University. https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-
content/uploads/2016/02/2013_05_Extreme-Weather-and-Climate-Change-in-the-
American-Mind-April-2013.pdf.

Zanocco, Chad et al. 2018. “Place, Proximity, and Perceived Harm: Extreme Weather Events and
Views about Climate Change.” Climactic Change 149(3–4).
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326567208_Place_proximity_and_perceived_h
arm_extreme_weather_events_and_views_about_climate_change (September 21, 2022).

Zanocco, Chad, Hilary Boudet, Roberta Nilson, and June Flora. 2019. “Personal Harm and
Support for Climate Change Mitigation Policies: Evidence from 10 U.S. Communities
Impacted by Extreme Weather.” Global Environmental Change 59. https://s3.us-west-
2.amazonaws.com/secure.notion-static.com/7523b85f-898f-4fb1-99cf-
39340c6a59a8/Zanocco_et_al-2019-GEC_%281%29.pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-
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