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    Bruno Miller Theodosio
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    1. The document discusses the probability of drawing cards from a deck without replacement. It defines the probabilities of drawing a heart card first (event A) and a red card second (event B). 2. It calculates the probabilities of A given B, and B given A, showing that they are not equal due to the dependency between the draws. 3. The key conclusion is that the probabilities of A given B and B given A are not the same for events that are not independent, demonstrating the prosecutor's fallacy.

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    1. The document discusses the probability of drawing cards from a deck without replacement. It defines the probabilities of drawing a heart card first (event A) and a red card second (event B). 2. It calculates the probabilities of A given B, and B given A, showing that they are not equal due to the dependency between the draws. 3. The key conclusion is that the probabilities of A given B and B given A are not the same for events that are not independent, demonstrating the prosecutor's fallacy.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    5 views3 pages

    Cards

    Uploaded by

    Bruno Miller Theodosio
    1. The document discusses the probability of drawing cards from a deck without replacement. It defines the probabilities of drawing a heart card first (event A) and a red card second (event B). 2. It calculates the probabilities of A given B, and B given A, showing that they are not equal due to the dependency between the draws. 3. The key conclusion is that the probabilities of A given B and B given A are not the same for events that are not independent, demonstrating the prosecutor's fallacy.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 3

    Complete and hard way: 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵) and 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵|𝐴𝐴)

    | | is a bin/box.
    The ‘two cards’ problem is about two draws done in this way: one at a time without
    replacement.
    No replacement  dependent events!!!! The second draw depends on what happens in
    the first, which we represent with two bins: |1st| |2nd| = |heart | |red| = |heart | |red given
    1st =heart|
    • A be the event that the first card is a heart, and
    • B be the event that the second card is red.

    𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵)
    𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵) =
    𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵)
    𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵)
    𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵|𝐴𝐴) =
    𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴)

    1. 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵)
    𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) = 1𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 ℎ𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒
    And
    𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵) = 2𝑛𝑛𝑛𝑛 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟
    𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∪ 𝐵𝐵) = 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜
    𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵) = 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎

    13 25 1 25 25
    𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵) = = � �� � =
    52ℎ𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 51𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟𝑟 4 51 204

    𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵)
    𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵) =
    𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵)
    𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵)
    𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵|𝐴𝐴) =
    𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴)
    - Isolate the numerator: 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵)𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵|𝐴𝐴)𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴)

    Dependency: 𝐴𝐴 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝐵𝐵 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊𝒊 if


    - 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴)
    - 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵|𝐴𝐴) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵)

    - Dependent: 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵)𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵|𝐴𝐴)𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) (stays the same)


    - Independent: 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴)𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵)𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) (the posterior = prior)

    13
    2. 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) =
    52

    25
    𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵) �204� 25 52 25 100 50 25
    𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵|𝐴𝐴) = = =� �� � = � �4 = = =
    𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) 13 204 13 204 204 102 51
    � �
    52

    1 2
    From the numerator isolated, 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵)𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵|𝐴𝐴)𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴)
    𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴∩𝐵𝐵)
    1. 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝐵) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵)𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵) → 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵) =
    𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵)
    𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵|𝐴𝐴)𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴)
    2. 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵)𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵|𝐴𝐴)𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) → 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵) =
    𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵)
    We need 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵), prob of 2nd is red.
    When I say the 2nd card must be red, the first card may be anything.
    How many reds do we have? 26 out of 51 (the first was already drawn). The first card
    can be anything (including a red), so we have 51 cards out of 52 available cards.
    51 26
    | | | |
    52 51

    51 26 51 26 (51)(26) 1
    𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵) = � � � � = � � � � = =
    51 52 52 51 (51)(52) 2

    25
    𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴∩𝐵𝐵) � � (25)(2) 50 25
    1. 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵) = = 204
    1 = = =
    𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵) � � 204 204 102
    2
    25 13
    𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵|𝐴𝐴)𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) � �� � 25 13 25 1 25 1 25
    2. 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵) = = 51 52
    1 = � � � � (2) = � � � � (2) = � � � � =
    𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵) 51 52 51 4 51 2 102
    2

    𝟐𝟐𝟐𝟐 𝟐𝟐𝟐𝟐
    What matters here: 𝑷𝑷(𝑨𝑨|𝑩𝑩) = and 𝑷𝑷(𝑩𝑩|𝑨𝑨) = , therefore, we do not fall into the
    𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏 𝟓𝟓𝟓𝟓
    prosecutor’s fallacy of assuming 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴|𝐵𝐵) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵|𝐴𝐴).
    The main conclusion is that:

    𝑷𝑷(𝑨𝑨|𝑩𝑩) ≠ 𝑷𝑷(𝑩𝑩|𝑨𝑨)

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