Monitoring the 21st Century Asian Arms Race

Iranian Drones Are A Menace Over Ukraine

DECEMBER 3, 2022
tags: AFU-Stratcom, Geran-1/2, loitering munitions, Shahed-136

(https://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.files.wordpress.com/2022/12/ukraine-russian-geran-2-
wreckage.jpg)
Wreckage
of a
Geran-2
in Kyiv.
Via social
media.

What could be the world’s biggest humanitarian crisis is unfolding in Ukraine as its electricity supply
dwindles after relentless airstrikes orchestrated by Russia. Since October 10 waves of cruise missiles
and loitering munitions wrecked critical infrastructure and other civilian targets as battlefield
reversals forced Russia’s army to retreat across the Dnipro River and consolidate its frontline. But the
slow retribution Moscow exacted has taken its toll, with most Ukrainian citizens now rationing their
power usage (https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-
40fcb95d1940825b99188256ee218d0d) as NATO scrambles to have generators and other humanitarian
aid delivered as quickly as possible.
Part of this campaign to further devastate the country
(https://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.com/2022/03/21/russia-is-demolishing-ukraine-with-tactical-
missiles/) are the “Shahed” or Geran-1 and Geran-2 loitering munitions, or “kamikaze drones” as
described by media, that are straining Ukraine’s air defenses. These weapons are of Iranian origin
and assembled with dual use parts then delivered to Russia as the Geran-1/2. The previous record
(https://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.com/2022/10/24/russia-is-pouring-loitering-munitions-into-
ukraine/) that logged Geran-1/2 shootdowns from September 13 until October 23 was inconclusive as
to whether they were being eliminated in sufficient numbers. The same result applies for the period
from October 24 until November 30 tabulated below. In fact, the only notable change is the volume of
Geran-1/2 shootdowns; they have diminished and none are reported since November 18.

The record (https://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.com/2022/10/24/russia-is-pouring-loitering-munitions-

into-ukraine/) from October 24 until November 30 does show better congruence when the figures for
AFU-Stratcom (together with the rest of the military) and the figures as reported by Ukrainian media
are charted. While the reporting is never consistent on a day-to-day basis the totals match up–61
shootdowns for AFU-Stratcom and 60 shootdowns for Ukrainian media–and complement a Stratcom
Center UA* infographic released on December 2 that shows 80 Geran-1/2 (a.k.a. Shahed-131/136) in
total were launched throughout November but 80% or 64 were shot down.

(https://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.files.wordpress.com/2022/12/december-2-2022-ukraine-stratcom-
 russian-missile-launches-in-november.jpg)
Vis
Stratcom
Center
UA.

The problem is, when examining the record of Geran-1/2 shootdowns since November based on
AFU-Stratcom and Ukrainian media, the total for the former is 42 shootdowns in November alone
and not 64 as claimed by Stratcom Center UA. It’s only when the shootdowns from the large attack
on October 25 and 26 are added that the total almost matches the infographic published by Stratcom
Center UA. On the other hand, the total of Geran-1/2 shootdowns as reported by Ukrainian media for
November complements the data from Stratcom Center UA.

The Ukrainian government’s efforts to highlight their success against the Geran-1/2 is very
inconsistent. On November 5 Pres. Zelensky himself claimed that the armed forces are shooting
down 10 kamikaze drones each day. However, if this were the case then 300 Geran-1/2 losses would
have been reported by AFU-Stratcom for the month of November. By the end of the month a
spokesman for the air force claimed Russia’s supply of Geran-1/2’s are depleted, as this was just a
“first batch,” and this explains why attacks stopped in the last two weeks. It’s an assertion echoed by
Western analysts, including think tanks, but is hard to verify.

(https://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.files.wordpress.com/2022/12/ukraine-ukrinform-november-5-
quote.jpg)
Via
Ukrinform.

Back in October 19 it was claimed (https://21stcenturyasianarmsrace.com/2022/10/24/russia-is-

pouring-loitering-munitions-into-ukraine/) either 222 or 223 Geran-1/2’s were shot down but the
AFU-Stratcom’s own records only counted 149 shot down from September 13 until October 23. At this
point the total Geran-1/2 shootdowns recorded by AFU-Stratcom from September 13 until November
30 is 210–a fraction of the estimated 2,400 Gerans the Russians possess. A different estimate lowers
this stockpile to 1,740 and then it was lowered again to “more than 400” that have been launched
against Ukraine.
Whatever the true figures Ukraine’s military brings down a lot of them but is having limited success
against these kamikaze drones.

* Stratcom Center UA is a program under the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy

QUANTITY AFU-STRATCOM MEDIA LOCATION

October 24
Oct 25
Oct 26 19
Oct 27
Oct 28
Oct 29
Oct 30
Oct 31
November 1 6 12
Nov 2 6 8 Kyiv, Cherkassy
Nov 3 9 Nikopol
6
Nov 4 9 Mykolaiv
11 (Pres. Zelensky)
Nov 5
Nov 6
Nov 7
Nov 8
Nov 9 6 5
Nov 10
Nov 11
Nov 12
Nov 13
Nov 14
Nov 15 10 10 Kyiv, Odessa
Nov 16
Nov 17 5
Nov 18
Nov 19
Nov 20
Nov 21
Nov 22
Nov 23
 Nov 24
Nov 25
Nov 26
Nov 27
Nov 28
Nov 29
Nov 30
TOTAL: 61 60
from → Aircraft, Iran, Missiles, Russia, UAV, Ukraine
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